By Steve Goddard
View from NCAR’s roof this morning (NCAR – National Center for Atmospheric Research)
From the “climate models are not climate” department.
It was seven months ago today that the NCAR scientist sent out this infamous E-mail shown below:
From: Kevin Trenberth <trenbert@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: Michael Mann <mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: Re: BBC U-turn on climate
Date: Mon, 12 Oct 2009 08:57:37 -0600
Cc: Stephen H Schneider <shs@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Myles Allen <allen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, peter stott <peter.stott@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, “Philip D. Jones” <p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Benjamin Santer <santer1@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Tom Wigley <wigley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Thomas R Karl <Thomas.R.Karl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Gavin Schmidt <gschmidt@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, James Hansen <jhansen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Michael Oppenheimer <omichael@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Hi all
Well I have my own article on where the heck is global warming? We are asking that here in Boulder where we have broken records the past two days for the coldest days on record. We had 4 inches of snow. The high the last 2 days was below 30F and the normal is 69F, and it smashed the previous records for these days by 10F. The low was about 18F and also a record low, well below the previous record low. This is January weather (see the Rockies baseball playoff game was canceled on saturday and then played last night in below freezing weather).
The Colorado Front Range is now entering it’s eighth month of winter. Yesterday I had to cancel soccer practice for the sixth time in six weeks due to winter weather. Here is what CU experts running climate models forecast two years ago.
DENVER — A study of two Rocky Mountain ski resorts says climate change will mean shorter seasons and less snow on lower slopes.
On the other side of the pond, The Guardian reports :
Snow and frost bring winter chill to May Snowfall, overnight temperatures of -1C
Confirming once again The Met Office Forecast from 10 years ago:
Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past
Not to mention this gem of modern science:
Scottish ski industry could disappear due to global warming, warns Met Office
How did that prediction turn out?
Scotland records coldest winter. Scotland has suffered some of the coldest winter months in almost 100 years, the Met Office has confirmed.
Scotland’s ski resorts are enjoying one of their most successful seasons ever, with a big rise in visitor numbers and the best conditions in a generation.
Most of the US has been running well below normal temperatures since October 1.
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/WaterTDeptUS.png
I wonder if the cold US temperatures might have anything to do with the very cold water in the North Pacific?
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
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“Whoever undertakes to set himself up as a judge of Truth and Knowledge is shipwrecked by the laughter of the gods.” – Albert Einstein
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/8492333.stm
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LOL!
“If carbon emissions increase, the average temperature at Park City will be 10.4 degrees warmer by 2100, and there likely will be no snowpack, according to the study.”
Don’t these people ever get tired of looking like fools?
Friends in Estes Park, Colorado report 15″ of snow, while another friend on the other side of Estes says “at least a foot.”
A foot of snow last week in town. Buffalo, Wyoming.
Two inches of cold, cold rain and a few inches of cement snow.
The Bighorn Mountains have received four FEET of snow in the past two weeks.
And we always have tourists from back East coming out in May and wondering why it isn’t summer, yet. This year – they will really be wondering.
PS – No complaints about the moisture, though.
We really need it.
“Snow is a thing of the past.”
It’s May!!
What fools! lol
The GCMs are not intended to predict short-term variations in regional weather. I’m certain there are many localized regions where the GCM missed the mark by a few degrees, for a few years(decades?). In 30-40 years, we may know with some certainty whether or not GCMs are useful for predicting long-term climate. 😉
It’s comforting to know that God has a sense of humor.
Will reality check, as this one, change or stop UN´s World Governance project?. No, neither a million WUWT blogs. That kind of projects, as other previous historic projects, now extinct, can only be stopped utilizing more convincing and direct means. There were needed two atomic bombs to stop one at the pacific, and 50 million “casualties” (a neologism for crude deaths) to stop another in europe, designed to last a “thousand years”. Hope this time the “Chosen Ones”are clever enough to ponder on the consequences of such dreams for power.
Live cam from Estes Park, Colorado:
http://www.estesparkweather.net/index.php
Living in the Front Range (closer to Boulder than I’m going to admit), I’m really surprised the map shows Boulder only minus 2 degrees cooler than normal. Based on the above email, you’d think they’d have a case for closer to four degrees less than normal.
I think the excuse will be cooking Tofu turkeys creates more heat than real turkeys…
Not certain of this, but I’m pretty sure Kevin Trenberth has never been the director of NCAR. If that’s the case, this post has a factual error in the first complete sentence, which might be a new record!
“Weather forecasters record coldest May night since 1996”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8677263.stm
“The night time UK average is normally 4-7C at this time of the year.
But -6C was recorded in the Highlands of Scotland, -3.1C in Oxfordshire, -4.3C in Wales, -5.3C in Cumbria -3.9C in East Anglia and 0C in London.”
Hi Steve,
interesting article, but we all know by now that weather is no climate.
But just in case, be on the lookout for the first polar bears entering Colorado.
After all that warming in the Artic they must look for high places so they will not drown…
But wasn’t the winter just gone the hottest ever recorded?
Mailman
Clearing the snow off Snowdon mountain railway line
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/8608357.stm
“Spring has arrived across much of Wales but on Snowdon the people who operate the mountain railway have embarked on a race against time to get the track to the summit open again.
It was the coldest, snowiest winter for decades and thousands of tonnes of snow remain on parts of the line”
“Even if emissions are reduced, winters will be warmer and less snowy than in the past because there’s a 50- to 70-year lag between release of the carbon and the effects, the researchers said.”
Wow, that’s a howler and a half. They really do make it up as they go along, don’t they?
I wonder if the cold US temperatures might have anything to do with the very cold water in the North Pacific?
It’s going to feel like 43 @ur momisugly SFO, 25 @ur momisugly DEN, 32 @ur momisugly SLC, 47 @ur momisugly PTJ, 45 @ur momisugly SEA, 56 @ur momisugly LAS, 57 @ur momisugly LAX, 35 @ur momisugly MOT – – – It’s either the Pacific or someone forgot to close a refrig. door in Japan….
Johnny D,
You are correct that Trenberth is not the director. He is listed as :
Dr. Kevin Trenberth, Senior Scientist, CAS Section Head
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html
Glad that you are keenly focused on the central points of the article. It is the sign of a sharp intellect.
REPLY: title changed to simply “scientist” -A
RHS
I feel the same way. This winter has been much colder than the NOAA maps show. Possibly the result of TOBS and homogenization adjustments?
Gene Zeien
One might expect trends predicted by climate models to at least have the correct polarity.
Oh but wait!
Scientific experts at the WWF predicted all this. Here’s what they said about Russia:
http://pgosselin.wordpress.com/2010/05/07/french-weather-event-proves-climate-change/
(Not meaning to promte my own site here). I’m sure the US WWF climate expert has the same conclusion – all predicted by GCM.
The cold Pacific temperatures are apparently due to all that “excess heat in the pipeline” which Hansen warns of.
Oops
Here’s the WWF quote:
“In the future we [Russians] can anticipate a somewhat warmer and much more unstable climate, including snowfalls in May and July.”
“Kevin E. Trenberth is head of the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. He was a lead author of the 2001 and 2007 IPCC Scientific Assessment of Climate Change (see IPCC Fourth Assessment Report) and serves on the Scientific Steering Group for the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) program.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_E._Trenberth
Yo Johnny D,
Here is what that font of climate truth, Wikipedia, says about Mr. Trenberth.
Kevin E. Trenberth is head of the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
So, yes I guess you scored another glorious victory over a “denialist”. He is only the head of the Climate Analysis Section of the NCAR, but since this post is about, you know climate, Steve’s small mis-statement is probably not what you would call a big deal.
Of course you can now run this tid-bit over to the screeching monkeys at Deltoid and Tim Lambert will trumpet your triumph over the “denial-o-sphere” to the faithful.
You’re a real hero.
It may or may not anything to do with the sun and the ‘microdots’ masquerading as sunspots.
If it is the sun, than there is a lot worse to come, as Livingstone & Penn are forecasting.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC14.htm