The Final Straw

Steven Mosher
Steven Mosher

Guest post by Steven Mosher

In Climategate: The Crutape letters we tried to avoid accusing Professor Jones of CRU and UEA of outright fraud. Instead, based on the record found in the emails, we argued a case of noble cause corruption. I enlarged upon that charge at Pajama’s Media . Commenters took me to task for being too soft on Jones. Based on the extant text at that time I would still hold to my case. No skeptic could change my mind. But Phil Jones makes it hard to defend him anymore. On March 1st he testified before Parliament and there he argued that it was standard scientific practice to not share data.  Those who still insist on being generous with him could, I suppose, argue that he has no recollection, but in my mind he is playing with the truth and knows he is playing with the truth.

In 2002 Steve McIntyre had no publications in climate science. He wrote to Jones requesting temperature data. The history of their exchange is detailed in this Climate Audit Post. Jones sent data to McIntyre along with the following mail:

Dear Steve,

Attached are the two similar files [normup6190, cruwld.dat] to those I sent before which should be for the 1994 version. This is still the current version until the paper appears for the new one. As before the stations with normal values do not get used.

I’ll bear your comments in mind when possibly releasing the station data for the new version (comments wrt annual temperatures as well as the monthly). One problem with this is then deciding how many months are needed to constitute an annual average. With monthly data I can use even one value for a station in a year (for the month concerned), but for annual data I would have to decide on something like 8-11 months being needed for an annual average. With fewer than 12 I then have to decide what to insert for missing data. Problem also applies to the grid box dataset but is slightly less of an issue. I say possibly releasing above, as I don’t want to run into the issues that GHCN have come across with some European countries objecting to data being freely available. I would like to see more countries make their data freely available (and although these monthly averages should be according to GCOS rules for GAA-operational Met. Service.

Cheers

Phil Jones

We should note these things: Jones sent data. That was his practice. Jones is aware of the problems in releasing this data. Jones believes that these monthly averages should be released according to GCOS [WMO resolution 40] rules. In 2002 his practice is to release data to a total unknown with no history of publication. And Jones releases the data to him knowing that there are issues around releasing that data.

In 2004 Warwick Hughes exchanges a series of mails with Jones. In 2000 Jones appears to have a cooperative relationship with Hughes.  In 2004 the record shows the following

Dear Jean Palutikof, Dr P.D. Jones,

I was just reading your web page at; http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/warming/ and wish to access the station by station temperature data, updated through 2001 referred to on your CRU web page; http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/#datdow as

“Over land regions of the world over 3000 monthly station temperature time series are used.” Where can I download the latest station by station data which is a foundation of Dr Jones et al published papers ? Note, I am not asking about the CRU gridded data which I can see on your web site. Looking forward to your help,

Best wishes,

Warwick Hughes

Warwick,

The station data are not on the CRU web site. If you look at the GHCN page at NCDC, you’ll see they have stopped access and cited WMO Res. 40 for this. To my mind this resolution is supposed to make access free. However, it was hinted at to me a year or two ago that I should also not make the station data available.

The gridded data are there as you know.

I would suggest you take this up with WMO and/or GCOS. I have raised it several times with them and got nowhere.

Cheers

Phil

As Jones points out he believes that WMO Resolution 40 should make access free. Jones also says that he himself has taken up this issue with them. One can presume he took it up because he wanted to give access to data. Further, he knows that there may be agreements that preclude release of the data.

The start of 2005 is a critical point in the story line. Jones had cordial exchanges with Hughes in 2000. Jones shared data with McIntyre in 2002 and in 2004 Jones believed that the data should be shared. In 2005 he has been transformed. In January of 2005, McIntyre published a paper (MM05) critical of Mann. As luck would have it at this time former CRU employee Wigley sent an email to Jones about a flyer he has received that discusses FOIA. At this stage no FOIA have been sent to CRU. But Wigley and Jones are concerned about skeptics.  What ever willingness Jones had to share data is gone. Again, Jones shows a clear understanding of the existence of agreements:

Data is covered by all the agreements we sign with people, so I will be hiding behind them. I’ll be passing any requests onto the person at UEA who has been given a post to deal with them.

At the start of Feb 2005, Jones’ attitude toward data sharing becomes clearer and also contradictory. Some people can get this data in violation of agreements, while others who ask for it using legal means will be thwarted.

Mike,

I presume congratulations are in order – so congrats etc !

Just sent loads of station data to Scott [Rutherford]. Make sure he documents everything better this time ! And don’t leave stuff lying around on ftp sites – you never know who is trawling them. The two MMs  [McIntyre and McKittrick]  have been after the CRU station data for years. If they ever hear there is a Freedom of Information Act now in the UK, I think I’ll delete the file rather than send

to anyone. Does your similar act in the US force you to respond to enquiries within 20 days? – our does ! The UK works on precedents, so the first request will test it. We also have a data protection act, which I will hide behind. Tom Wigley has sent me a worried email when he heard about it – thought people could ask him for his model code. He has retired officially from UEA so he can hide behind that. IPR should be relevant here, but I can see me getting into an argument with someone at UEA who’ll say we must adhere to it !

Two weeks after the publication of MM05, prior to the issuance of any FOIA whatsoever, Jones contemplates destroying data rather than sharing it. But read closely. Jones sends this data to Scott Rutherford. So what’s the standard scientific practice? The data is covered by confidentiality agreements. Jones shared it with McIntyre in 2002, and now shares it with Rutherford in 2005. Jones knows it is covered by agreements and he’s questioned those agreements—except when he finds it convenient to hide behind those agreements. He violates them as he pleases. He shares data as he pleases. And if he is pushed to share it he contemplates destroying it.

On  Feb 21, 2005 Keith Briffa sends Jones a mail with a list of editorials that are critical of Dr. Mann for not releasing data. Jones replies to Warwick Hughes’ request for data that same day:

Warwick,

Hans Teunisson will reply. He’ll tell you which other people should reply.   Hans is “Hans Teunissen”

I should warn you that some data we have we are not supposed top pass on   to others. We can pass on the gridded data – which we do.  Even if WMO agrees, I will still not pass on the data.  We have 25 or so years invested in the work. Why should I make the data available to you, when your aim is to try and find something wrong with it. There is IPR to consider.

You can get similar data from GHCN at NCDC.  Australia isn’t restricted there.

Several European countries are. Basically because, for example, France doesn’t  want the French picking up data on France from Asheville. Meteo France  wants to supply data to the French on France. Same story in most of the  others.

Cheers

Phil

Jones has changed his attitude about the WMO. Prior to the publication of MM05 Jones believed that the WMO guidelines would make the data available. Moreover he argued with WMO that it should be released. Now, Jones changes his tune. He argues that he will not release the data even if the WMO agrees. His concern? Hughes will find something wrong with it.

When it comes to deciding whether to share data or not, standards have nothing to do with the decisions Jones made and he knows that. He knows he shared confidential data with Rutherford while he denied it to McIntyre and Hughes. He knows he regarded the confidentiality of those agreements quixotically. Violating them or hiding behind them on a whim. This was scientific malpractice. Lying about that now is beyond excuse.

April 2005 comes and we turn to another request from McIntyre:  There is a constant refrain amongst AGW defenders that people don’t need to share code and data. They argue that papers do a fine job of explaining the science: They argue that people should write their own code based on description in papers. Here is McIntyre’s request. Note that he has read the paper and tried to emulate the method:

Dear Phil,

In keeping with the spirit of your suggestions to look at some of the other multiproxy publications, I’ve been looking at Jones et al [1998]. The methodology here is obviously more straightforward than MBH98. However, while I have been able to substantially emulate your calculations, I have been unable to do so exactly. The differences are larger in the early periods. Since I have been unable to replicate the results exactly based on available materials, I would appreciate a copy of the actual data set used in Jones et al [1998] as well as the code used in these calculations.

There is an interesting article on replication by Anderson et al., some distinguished economists, here [1]http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2005/2005-014.pdf discussing the issue of replication in applied economics and referring favorably to our attempts in respect to MBH98.

Regards, Steve McIntyre

When you cannot replicate a paper based on a description of the data and a description of the method, standard practice is to request materials from the author. McIntyre does that. Jones’ “practice” is revealed in his mail to Mann:

From: Phil Jones <p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>

To: mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx

Subject: Fwd: CCNet: DEBUNKING THE “DANGEROUS CLIMATE CHANGE” SCARE

Date: Wed Apr 27 09:06:53 2005

Mike,

Presumably you’ve seen all this – the forwarded email from Tim. I got this email from McIntyre a few days ago. As far as I’m concerned he has the data sent ages ago. I’ll tell him this, but that’s all – no code. If I can find it, it is likely to be hundreds of lines of uncommented fortran ! I recall the program did a lot more that just average the series. I know why he can’t replicate the results early on – it is because there was a variance correction for fewer series.

See you in Bern.

Cheers

Phil

Jones does not argue that code should be withheld because of IPR[Intellectual Property Rights]. It’s withheld because he is not sure he can find it and he suspects that it is a mess. More importantly Jones says he knows why McIntyre cannot replicate the results. Jones does not argue “standard scientific practice” to withhold code; he withholds code because it’s either lost, or sloppy and because it will allow McIntyre to understand exactly how the calculations were done.  This is malpractice.  Today when questioned whether people could replicate his work from the papers he wrote Jones “forgot this mail” and said they could replicate his work. And we should note one last thing. Jones again acknowledges sending data to McIntyre. So, what exactly is Jones’ notion of standard practice? To share or not to share? What the record shows is that Jones shared data and didn’t share data, confidential or not, on a basis that cannot be described as scientific or standard. He did so selectively and prejudicially. Just as he refused data to Hughes to prevent his work being checked he refuses information that McIntyre needs to replicate his published results. At the same time he releases that data to others.

That’s not the end of the story as we all know. In 2007 the first two FOIA were issued to CRU for data. One request for a subset of the data was fulfilled after some delay. The larger request was denied. By 2009 it became clear to McIntyre that the CRU data had also been shared with Webster. When McIntyre requested the very same data that Webster got from Jones, CRU started again with a series of denials again citing confidentiality agreements, inventing the terms of those agreements ex nihilo. Webster could have the data. McIntyre could not.

What the record shows is that Jones had no standard scientific practice of sharing or not sharing data. He had no consistent practice of abiding by or violating confidentiality agreements. He had his chance to sit before Parliament and come clean about the record. He had an opportunity to explain exactly why he took these various contradictory actions over the course of years.  Instead he played with the truth again.  Enough.

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March 2, 2010 1:32 am

I think this sets out a definite difference between science and “climate science”. Clearly “climate science” does not adhere to the normal, standard expectation of science, that all data, methods, materials, data etc. be open and shareable so that it can be fully tested, by people who support AND people who are sceptical.
Climate science is a unique scientific discipline where research begins at the conclusion and works backwards, selectively adopting (and manipulating) evidence to fit the conclusion. Where the hypothesis never changes, but the evidence changes instead to fit the hypothesis.
In short, climate science is NOT science.
if (science) then world = cooler; if (!science) then world = warmer.

michel
March 2, 2010 1:38 am

Yes, this is a very convincing account. But surely with the recent inputs of the learned societies, this is over now? Surely from here on in, no-one is going to be able to say, I have studies which demonstrate looming disaster for life on earth unless we immediately start spending trillions and do large scale geoengineering of the climate.
But no, you cannot have the data and the code, because… of commericial confidentiality? Or because its too much trouble to get them into shape? Or because I have lost some of the data in an office move? Sorry, you are just going to have to trust me and spend the trillions?
Its game over at this point.
If you want to read a fictional account of a similar affair, 100 years ago now, I would strongly recommend Penguin Island, by Anatole France. Very funny, and it will remind you eerily of today’s events.

Ross Berteig
March 2, 2010 1:38 am

As I recall, Jones wouldn’t even release the identities of the stations that he had used. Of course, it is becoming clear that he probably doesn’t actually know what stations were used…
Worse, he knew then and knows now that he is not good at record keeping. Why didn’t he spend even a tiny portion of his immense grant budgets on some archival expertise?

Pete
March 2, 2010 1:47 am

Are there no rules for telling untruths during hearings of the U.K. Parlament and its committees? Is there going to be any legal consequences for Jones telling tall tales or is he just going to walk away with this?

R.S.Brown
March 2, 2010 1:58 am

Normally, an official finding (especially in court) of a public
employee having accomplished the thresholds for misfeasance,
malfeasance, and/or nonfeasance are enough for the Court
to order the employee terminated.
Most employment agreements and public employee
appointments include clauses that hold the employer harmless should such a judgment be rendered… no matter what any
“in house” or “independent” investigation or “peer review”
might find or recommend.
Folks or institutions with deep pockets might want to
“lawyer up” if the whitewash gets much deeper.

March 2, 2010 2:01 am

I am unsurprised that the Parliamentary committee did not ask searching or even terribly intelligent questions of Prof Jones as most of the political world wants to believe in ‘the science’ as it offers the prospect, through the mechanism of spurious and monstrous ‘green’ taxes, of getting them off the hook of the financial mess they allowed to happen on their watch. Political man seems to have learnt nothing since the collapse of the ‘South Sea Island Bubble’, ‘The Tulip Bubble’ and other major confidence tricks over the preceeding centuries.
Jones doesn’t even pretend to be a ‘post-modern scientist’ but has very obviously bent his ethics to fit the demands of his political masters.

Neville
March 2, 2010 2:03 am

Surely the bottom line is that he should go. He is an inconsistent fool and should be relieved of his duties as soon as possible.
Imagine taxpayers around the world paying out billions of dollars annually on this shonks evidence, it just makes my skin crawl.

RIP IPCC
March 2, 2010 2:03 am

You want the Truth? You can’t handle the Truth!

Peter Hearnden
March 2, 2010 2:04 am

One long ad hom, science content zero.
When will you people get off the backs of people like Dr Jones and leave them to get on with their research?
Incidentally, who are you Mr Mosher? If you think it’s right that everything about Dr Jones should be public knowledge because it might cost us billion if he’s wrong so his science needs infinite testing, then it’s also the case that if you’re wrong it might also cost us billions and so everything about you should be public knowledge.
Therefore I demand you place on public record all your scientifc notes, workings, jotting, e mails, code (every scrap) and papers for the last ten years. All of it, everything, every last word , figure and number. If you don’t do that i will be demanding it by FOI and I wont desisit, I’ll shower you with FOI request for a decade.
Get it?

March 2, 2010 2:14 am

Peter, what a [snip] reply you give here, you haven’t learned anything and repeat just what you have read on other blogs!

CodeTech
March 2, 2010 2:14 am

This is a very good summary, and I’d like to add my own thoughts (sorry if this is rambling).
Through the 90s the entire concept of AGW and the possibility that humanity was doing things that could alter the climate was somewhat of a given. 1998 was a scorcher, at least here where I live, and it was very easy to believe that things were changing… maybe even out of control. AGW theory was hitting mainstream, I remember Letterman making jokes about Al Gore claiming that the caveman frozen in the ice had been exposed by “global warming”, and the audience laughed… but after the 98 lack of winter people were starting to wonder.
When I personally first started researching AGW for a business project in early 2002, I was looking for data. I also completely believed, and was searching the internet for supporting data to convince people who were not familiar with what was happening. I wanted the historical temperature records, the background behind the hockey stick, everything. Even in 2002 I stumbled across a few “skeptic” sites but was turned off by them. I mean, you know the drill, these guys were oil company shills, they were in denial, etc. I ignored them.
However, now that I see this timeline laid out, I realize that I was coming to my realization around the time this was all playing out. It seems Steve McIntyre was also looking for SUPPORTING evidence, not a way to damage or destroy the idea. But human nature is more stable than climate… when someone balks at giving you what should be relatively basic information that underlies their entire premise, you start wondering why.
I came to realize that the vast majority of supporting websites were all parroting the exact same things, with very little variation, and not a single one had anything like “proof”. Nobody was doing what Science says you should do, which is to question what you are seeing. I started to notice the liberal use of the words “could” and “might”, and the big weasel words, “scientists say”. Which scientists? Why are they saying it? Are these all scientists, or just two?
I still remember the day I found “Still Waiting for Greenhouse”. It was ugly, amateurish, and I normally would have just skipped past it except for that picture of the tide mark. Having been told how sea levels are rising (living at 3500 feet I don’t see the ocean very often), it seemed odd that an old tide mark was still showing modern levels. Tuvalu not being inundated by rising seas? Hmm.
I looked around for other “skeptics”, expecting (honestly!) them to be slick, oil company budgeted productions poo-pooing the entire concept. That’s not what I found. Remember, I live in an oil city, I KNOW what oil company budgeted stuff looks like. It looks like deep pockets. Skeptic sites were ugly, amateur sites asking questions. The right questions.
I don’t remember where my epiphany was, but I do remember that my realization that the whole thing was a complete sham was rapid. There was no evidence. There was no supporting data. There still is neither. The folly and futility of measuring surface temperatures should be obvious to even elementary school students who think about it. I can have huge temperature differences just a few hundred feet away depending on the breeze, or wind direction, or where I am relative to the nearest hill or valley.
Also, the oceans are the vast majority of the planet’s surface. Sun heats ocean, water evaporates, rises as high as it needs to to lose its heat, and falls back down. This is a no-brainer, really, it’s both intuitive and scientific.
I remember reading some of McIntyre’s early writing, and being appalled at what he was saying. Not at him, but at the sheer audacity of someone stonewalling for data. I understand the need for industry to keep trade secrets, but this data should have been freely available. Is the weather not free?
I mentioned before that my car club had a massive argument once back in the late 90s regarding the best color for an intercooler. Either a light color or a dark color would radiate the heat better, and people fell out over this argument. (The answer is, NO color: painting a radiator insulates it. Although color may have some effect, it is completely overwhelmed by the other effects and thus is safely ignored). I saw the parallel. Yes, CO2 will have some effect, I doubt anyone would question it. But it was soon obvious to me that this was in the same level. The effect is vastly overwhelmed by other natural processes, and can be safely ignored.
At around the same time that this was all going on (2002-up) the “scientists” were starting to get known. There was Hansen, and Jones, and Mann, and Briffa, and they’re all getting something like “famous”. They stopped being scientists, though, and became activists for their cause. This trend went beyond ludicrous after Gore’s movie came out. I personally know people who came out of that movie in absolute terror.
However, back to the topic… what I get out of Jones’ testimony and explanations is that his particular cards, the basic bottom layer of the giant house of cards that is the modern AGW theory, has collapsed. There may be warming. There may not. But anyone who says either way with certainty is either mistaken or lying. With the collapse of these base cards, the entire structure must, and will, come tumbling down in a heap.
Science that is not replicable is not science.
Losing data, fudging data, stonewalling data, deleting data, altering data, each is an unpardonable offense to science. The combination is unpardonable-squared.
So many people have “done science” based on the premise of rising global temperatures, and I don’t doubt that the vast majority of that work was done in good faith. However, take away the basic premise that Jones’ work provided and you have nothing.
There was no such thing as “climatology” just a few years ago, and from what I’ve seen there is still no such thing. There are a few people who call themselves climatologists, and with that they appear to believe that they can do whatever they want as they create a whole new branch of science. But it all hinges on an accurate record, which does not exist. 30 years may be the “standard” for climatologists, but they’re willfully blind if they don’t realize that that is HALF of a long-term well documented climate CYCLE. There are no straight lines in nature, and no trend continues unabated in a feedback system.
I am not a “scientist”, but I know BAD SCIENCE when I see it. And I too want it to stop. It is shameful what these guys have done, and switching to activism was the end of all credibility.

anna v
March 2, 2010 2:18 am

Re: Peter Hearnden (Mar 2 02:04),
No, I do not get it.
There is no one in the skeptics camp that is proposing taxes and pyramid schemes in the billions. Where did you get this idea?

March 2, 2010 2:26 am

Peter Hearnden (02:04:34) :
One long ad hom, science content zero.
A recounting of events with regards to a person’s role in them is not an ad hominem attack.
To paraphrase a popular talking point, “You’re entitled to your own opinions — you’re *not* entitled to your own definitions.”

March 2, 2010 2:30 am

Once we relegate land surface temperatures we won’t need the CRU temperature index (or GISS):
Why Global Mean Surface Temperature Should be Relegated, Or Mostly Ignored

Baa Humbug
March 2, 2010 2:31 am

Re: Peter Hearnden (Mar 2 02:04),

Get it?

I have re-read your post and I still don’t “gettit”. Could you expand further for me please.

Michael Ozanne
March 2, 2010 2:35 am

“Peter Hearnden (02:04:34) :
One long ad hom, science content zero.
When will you people get off the backs of people like Dr Jones and leave them to get on with their research?”
Mentioning Jones and Research reminds me of Gandhi being asked about Western Civilisation “I think it would be an excellent Idea, when will you start”
As for Mosher being subject to FOI, he would need to be spending public (i.e our) money before that would apply….

Peter Hearnden
March 2, 2010 2:39 am

Dear Peter.
Steven Mosher is not a public employee and not remotely subject to FOI requests. You really should have some understanding of the process involved.

Dear ‘Jeez’,
If what people like Mr Mosher say is wrong it might cost the world billions because climate change science will have been right all along but we didn’t listen to it and sort the problems when we could because we listened to the Mr Moshers of this world. So, therefore, he should be open to the same scrutiny as everyone else in this business – views like his might cost the world BILLIONS. What kind of an excuse for not scrutinising views that might cost us billions is it that Mr Mosher isn’t a public employee? It’s a nonsensical excuse.

Mike Haseler
March 2, 2010 2:39 am

Can I make a plea to stop this focussing on “open data”. Yes the data should have been made available, but the main reason they didn’t want to make it available is because it would show how bad the data was in the first place.
Anyone who has ever had any real experience of temperature measurement knows what a difficult subject this is. It is bad enough in a carefully controlled laboratory, but in real life, in the real world, with real people … it is a nightmare.
Let me recount one story. In the days when the lighthouses in the UK used to take Met readings, the lighthouse keepers took the readings. Now these guys were paid a pittance and treated like dirt by the lighthouse board – so there were a few people who did the job because their health wouldn’t allow them to do other jobs. And, let’s just say that not everyone with a heart condition would make the regular journey up and down the lighthouse to take the temperature reading – and who was going to be awake in the early hours to know anyway that the readings had been made up.
I’ve also seen the same thing in factories: reading after reading after reading of absolutely perfectly running equipment which when you look isn’t working at all!
There’s also the timing of readings which is pretty key. If e.g. the local temperature is 20C in the day and 10C at night, it will be heating up by 1-2C/hour in the morning. A 0.33C difference thus corresponds to 10-20min. That is an incredible 0.1C for each 3-6minutes. Now tell me honestly whether some station attendant in the darkest reaches of Africa who hadn’t seen England for years, let alone anyone from the Met Office and relied on a pretty wonky sundial/clock, is going to be standing over the Met Station waiting in the gathering heat to take a reading at the precise time appointed, ensuring that the temperature of all the readings was taken precisely within a minute of the hour?
There are good reasons why we automated the temperature readings worldwide – but that WILL have changed the nature of those readings. It also means that there isn’t the same regular check of equipment so that e.g. insects, animals, moisture can contaminate the readings without anyone noticing for long periods.
The fact is this data was never intended for this purpose, and those “scientists” pretending their data analysis can make bad data good are kidding themselves!

March 2, 2010 2:40 am

Re: Peter Herndon. (March 2, 2010)
Peter, please use a quality dictionary to ascertain for your personal enlightenment the definition of ‘ad hominem’, then use the term correctly and with an understanding of the post you wish to comment on.

Peter Hearnden
March 2, 2010 2:44 am

Re: Peter Hearnden (Mar 2 02:04),
Get it?
I have re-read your post and I still don’t “gettit”. Could you expand further for me please.

Yes.
It’s claimed climate science needs to be deeply scrutinied because acting upon it will cost the world BILLIONS and thus we need to be completely sure it’s right so to act. But, equally, if sceptic are wrong they will have cost the world BILLIONS because we listend to them, you, but you were wrong and we didn’t act. Therefore sceptics also need to be deeply scrutinised. Everything for the last decade they have produced, jotted, discarded, emailed, calculated, coded, everything needs to be in the public domain. I therefore demand Mr Mosher (amongst others) do this – and put it all in a form anyone can understand.
Is that clearer?

3x2
March 2, 2010 2:46 am

Pete (01:47:41) :
Are there no rules for telling untruths during hearings of the U.K. Parlament and its committees? Is there going to be any legal consequences for Jones telling tall tales or is he just going to walk away with this?
And who would you call as an expert witness to testify regarding what is or is not standard practice in “climate science”?

March 2, 2010 2:52 am

The quote One problem with this is then deciding how many months are needed to constitute an annual average. is a perfect example of why replication based on the published papers is not practical. In this field, there are so many tiny details (infilling, end padding) which have a variety of valid approaches.
The hypothesis of some of the skeptical work is that the series are more noisy than is accepted by the primary work, and that the outcome is more by chance or an artifact of the analysis method.
In order to test this particular hypothesis it is necessary to understand each stage in precise detail. This is evidenced by Mann’s response to MM03 where several errors in the analysis are held up as invalidating the whole paper – but it was the lack of openness which led to these errors.
In order to test the hypothesis that the method or data flaws are contributing to the result, an independent analysis based on raw data can never be conclusive (see the Yamal discussions where there is no agreement). Either the specific analysis is mathematically flawed, the elective decisions made in the analysis are (most likely subconsciously) biased, or the result is valid.
If the whole analysis can’t be questioned, there is no chance of independent scientists being convinced that the result is valid with a high level of confidence (rather than hope/belief)

Peter Hearnden
March 2, 2010 2:56 am

Dear Peter,
It is this kind of excuse. It is the law. It is standard ethics in democratic society with laws protecting freedom of speech. It is the way it is. Good luck filing an FOI against Steven.

So, we’re not all equal under the law. That’s bunkum.
Sceptics should be open to the same level of scrutiny as everyone else. I can’t for the life of me see how anyone could argue they should above a law that applies to others.
If sceptics are wrong but we mistakenly listen to you, you will have cost the world BILLIONS! Thus scepticism needs to be scrutinised as much as science.

Brent Hargreaves
March 2, 2010 2:58 am

CodeTech (02:14:32) :
“I don’t remember where my epiphany was, but I do remember that my realization that the whole thing was a complete sham was rapid.”
My own journey has mirrored yours. For a while, I played “pick the authority figure”, and surrendered my judgment to eminent men of irreproachable integrity. But I quickly realised that this was lazy, and went in search of corroborating evidence.
I asked: “What is the longest continuous record of direct CO2 measurements?”, “What is the longest continuous direct temperature record?”, “What is the longest direct/indirect glacier record?”, and “How do they measure sea levels – to what datum?”
The answers I got were: (i)Mauna Loa, 1958 (ii)Central England, 1659 (iii) Aletsch Glacier 3200 years and (iv) By satellite, but durned if I can understand the methodology.
Which brought me to my current layman’s stance: (i) CO2’s going up (ii) Temperatures go up and down (iii) Glaciers come and go (iv) Dunno, but I ain’t building any ark just yet.

March 2, 2010 2:59 am

Hearnden (02:04:34) :
One long ad hom, science content zero.
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CRU has just three scientists working on data which guides government policies worldwide and that data is at best suspect. I watched the video of Jones being questioned and anything more like a cornered rat I can’t imagine. This catastrophic climate B/S has got our city into very serious trouble, where a previous city council sold out the city to warmists in the NZ govt to the extent that 104 ,40 story wind turbines are planned for the city’s water supply and last remaining native forest and towering over 2,000 homes. The corruption has been unbelievable. If you think Jones is the victim of an ad hom, just what do you think an attack like this on 80,000 people is??
This kind of save the planet disaster will just happen everywhere if the carbonistas win. Thank God they are not.
http://www.palmerston-north.info
There, I wrote this without a single expletive.

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