Coal Creek Redux

Guest post by Richard Keen, Ph.D.

To paraphrase Led Zeppelin, “It’s been cooling, I ain’t fooing…”

December was a chilly month across much of the U.S., and at my site (the NWS co-op station for Coal Creek Canyon, Colorado, NW of Denver at an elevation 8950 feet, or 720 millibars, December was the coldest December (and the coldest month of any name) in 27 years of record.  The average of 16.5 was 0.8 degrees colder than December 1983.  Over the entire record, nine months averaged colder than 20F; of these, five occurred during 1983-1990, none during 1991-2005, and four during 2007-2009.  It appears that he warm spell of the 1990′s and early 2000′s has ended.

Here’s a chart of the past decade of annual temperatures

updating my post from a year ago.  The recent cooling trend continues, with 2009 coming in at 38.9F, colder than 2008 and a full 3 degrees F colder than 2003.  The “Tipping Point” in 2003-2004 is clear on the updated graph.

The longer record at my location

(Click to see animation)

shows the Tipping Point more dramatically through the miracle of animation.  The added trend line is from a special “best fit Hockey Stick” code I found in some downloaded e-mails last month, although I had to alter the code to change the angle of the blade.

After last January’s post, someone commented on “Watts Up With That?” that (s)he “didn’t really think [Anthony Watts] couldn’t scrape up any less significant data”.  I was heartbroken with the thought that my 10,059 daily max and min temperatures could be the least significant atmospheric observations ever made.  So allow me to put the record from my particular station in perspective.

The site is about 60 miles from the geographic center of Colorado, and a couple of thousand feet higher than the average elevation of the state.  The aerial photo of the site (marked by the red asterisk) looks to the northwest.

Following is a table of correlation between Coal Creek Canyon annual means and measurements of annual temperatures for the entire state of Colorado.

Correlation R between Coal Creek Canyon       and:

0.92 NCDC Statewide Divisional average

0.89 GHCN and Hadley gridded temperatures (the two were so similar they were averaged together)

0.91 NCAR-NCEP Reanalysis gridded temperatures

0.95 Average of all three

These correlations are much better than those of any Bristlecones with that other Hockey Stick.  Although there’s bristlecones a short hike from my house

I leave them alone.  With a correlation R = 0.95. the Coal Creek station is pretty representative of the entire state of Colorado.  Colorado, in turn, is in the Rocky Mountain and intermountain West, a region projected by the IPCC to have the greatest warming in the “lower 48″ states – about 4C, or 7F, over this century.

According to the IPCC models, greenhouse gas warming should be greatest over continental interiors and in the middle troposphere, so Coal Creek Canyon is an ideal “global warming” monitoring site.  How, then, is the projected 0.7F per decade warming coming along?

Since 1985, the overall trend has been +0.3F per decade, about half of the IPCC projection.  Since 2000, the trend has been -3F per decade – four times greater than the IPCC projection, and in the opposite direction!

This is an example of how one station’s data can be significant for assessing climate change, but only if the station is carefully installed and maintained, is in a location relatively free of non-climatic influences, has records that are diligently kept, and, above all, does not have its records mysteriously altered.  It would be instructive to see records from other observers who have quality records of long duration.

Richard Keen, Ph.D.

Coal Creek Canyon, Colorado

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148 Responses to Coal Creek Redux

  1. Henry chance says:

    Should we be using tree rings from bristle cones instead of thermometers to be consistant?

  2. El Abuelo says:

    -3ºf …

    WOW!

    No coment!

  3. vboring says:

    Yeah, it sucks. When I was hired they said I’d be able to bike through most of the winter here, but the roads have been covered with global warming for weeks.

  4. John W. says:

    Clearly your data is faulty. It needs to be “homogenized” with the Mojave Desert in order to more accurately represent model predictions. [/sarcasm]

    Seriously, thanks for a good post. If we could get together a lot more data like yours, we could possibly construct an accurate picture of wht’s been happening.

  5. Tilo Reber says:

    Thanks Richard. I’m down the road in Littleton and I enjoy biking up Deer Creek Canyon. But not much chance this winter. Seems like 4 out of every 5 days have been below the December average high of 43-44. Often by a lot. I liked the winter of 98 much better. On many weekends I could bike on Saturday and ski on Sunday.

  6. Mack28 says:

    The Climate is Weather? The Times quotes a Chinese observer blaming the Big Freeze on Global Warming. Who would have guessed that! More CO2 needed.

  7. Robinson says:

    So, Watt’s the analysis? Is it the PDO, multi-decadal, solar influence, a combination (of course, it must be)… what? All we know at the moment is it isn’t Carbon!

  8. boxman says:

    A bit off topic but here is another Climategate documentary that aired on Finnish state television not long ago: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unKZhr3JMhA
    This is not the same documentary that watts posted about earlier.

  9. pyromancer76 says:

    Ah! a breath of clear, Colorado fresh air, without the pollution of homogenization, uhi, or improper siting. Thanks, Richard Keen. Also, neat graphs.

  10. DavidE says:

    It’s a travesty that you had to hide the decline but I suppose you couldn’t take the risk of some CAGWer doing a Santer on you. ;-)

    DaveE.

  11. vboring says:

    And I bought property here in Denver based on the IPCC advice that it would soon be beachfront. (/sarcasm)

    If I really believed the IPCC alarmism, the most prudent investments would be guns and ammo.

  12. DavidE says:

    I managed to avoid the spam bin, HURRAH!

    There must have been some trick to that. ;-)

    DaveE.

  13. Adam from Kansas says:

    Why is the cooling trend at Coal Creek significantly more than the rest of the U.S.? And is this neccesarily a sign of things to come in the rest of the country?

  14. Gary Hladik says:

    So if this site correlates well with the rest of Colorado’s stations, then the state as a whole must be cooling. As a reward, perhaps the state should be exempted from all CO2 emission restrictions.

    In fact, I think we should exempt any state whose “official” temperatures start to decline.

    Nothing like a little incentive… :-)

  15. Peter Carroll says:

    Those data points look like they need the Darwin adjustment.

  16. Don B says:

    As much as I like Dr. Keen’s analysis, another example being his 2008 Global Warming Quiz,

    http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Globalwarmingquiz.pdfs analysis

    I like his wry, dry style. He could be a wonderful dinner guest. (Would you drive to Estes Park for food?)

  17. DirkH says:

    Colorado? This guy is in the pockets of Big Shale!

  18. Stefan of Perth says:

    It looks like we must have gone overboard with the fluorescent light bulbs and stuff…

  19. Invariant says:

    Global warming has forced the heat to penetrate somewhere in the atmosphere, thus pushing the cold out there down to us!

    I guess this soon will be found at http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php

  20. DonS says:

    Powder River, let ‘em run boys!!!!!!!! It’s all downhill from here.
    Thanks, Dr Keen. Thanks, Anthony.

  21. Joe Crawford says:

    I guess if Coal Creek is teleconnected to the average temperature for Colorado, then the Fraser-Tabernash site (about 20 miles west of you ?) must have been teleconnected to Alaska before it closed down.

  22. Bill Parsons says:

    It would be instructive to see records from other observers who have quality records of long duration.

    I keep wondering whether coop observers would be willing to just start sending copies of all observations to a neutral party from now on. Might pay to have copies of records if they are getting trashed and distorted.

    It is, as Dr. Keen notes, his (and other station-keepers’) work that’s being undermined.

  23. Peter Dunford says:

    I suppose we will soon get GISS’s announcement that December was the, what, the seventh? Hows that sound? Lets go with seventh warmest December on record. Go GISS!

  24. AdderW says:

    From The Times
    January 5, 2010
    There’s probably more to come.

    The big freeze seems to defy all the logic of a warming world, but this is just part and parcel of the wild fluctuations in weather that can happen naturally.

    -Funny how that works, when it is getting colder, it is a part of a natural wild fluctuation but not so when it is getting warmer, then it is a “lethal man-made global heating to scorching levels all but natural” event.

  25. StevenJames says:

    Was the record adjusted for the nearby warming from Denver Bronco fans as they watched their 6 – 0 team end the season 2 – 8?

  26. E.M.Smith says:

    DavidE (15:15:06) : I managed to avoid the spam bin, HURRAH!
    There must have been some trick to that. ;-)

    Well, I noticed when discussing Climategate that the word F-R-A-U-D got me tossed in the bin. WordPress has an odd assortment of words it’s ‘hinky’ about… You can add to the built in list, but not reduce it. (Wonder what legal sites do on WordPress? ;-)

  27. Theo Goodwin says:

    Your data is identical to my data and the data of my friends. The data was gathered in a triangle that stretches from St. Louis to Richmond to Orlando. The folks in Florida are suffering the most unusual winters. December was January like and January is more like January in south Georgia. All the plants in the yard were killed last year and will be killed again tonight. No fun.

  28. AdderW says:

    From The Times
    January 2, 2010
    Weather eye: The Sun may have had the strangest weather of last year
    The strangest weather of last year was possibly not on Earth, but on the Sun. Every 11 years or so the Sun goes through a cycle of sunspots — actually magnetic storms erupting across its surface. The number of sunspots reached its minimum in 2007 and should have increased soon afterwards, but the Sun has remained strangely quiet since then. Scientists have been baffled as weeks and sometimes months have gone by without a single sunspot, in what is thought to be the deepest solar minimum for almost 100 years.

    This lack of solar activity means that cosmic rays reaching Earth from space have increased and the planet’s ionosphere in the upper atmosphere has sunk in height, giving less drag on satellites and making collisions between them and space junk more likely. The solar minimum could also be cooling the climate on Earth because of slightly dimished solar irradiance. In fact, the quiet spell on the Sun may be masking some of the warming effects of greenhouse gases, according to recent research by two US solar scientists. The solar minimum, their study suggests, accounts for the somewhat flat temperature trend of the past decade. But even if this solar minimum is offsetting global warming, scientists stress that the overall effect is relatively slight and certainly will not last.

    The Sun has gone into long quiet spells before. From 1645 to 1715 few sunspots were seen during a period called the Little Ice Age, when short summers and savage winters often plagued Northern Europe. Scotland was hit particularly hard as harvests were ruined in cold, miserable summers, which led to famine, death, migration and huge depopulation. But whether the quiet Sun was entirely to blame for it remains highly uncertain.

  29. DavidE says:

    E.M.Smith (15:39:26) :

    My comments are generally innocuous but for some reason, I & several others have been routinely tossed in the spam bin.

    Whatever the issue was, it seems to have been fixed to have been replaced with another bug where I get the message Transferring data from stats.wordpress,com permanently displayed & have to terminate the page load. :-D

    DaveE.

  30. spangled drongo says:

    Would have expected December to be even lower.

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/

  31. royfomr says:

    Excellent post Richard but scary, real scary!
    Studies like yours are the ones that really do matter. Weather kills, climate doesn’t!
    Over here in the UK, the conceit of deluded government, fooled and made ignorant by an environmental agenda supported by wilful abandonment of duty by academia and the Met office have set the scene for widespread manslaughter.
    The local authorities, here in Scotland, are desperately trying to replenish gritting stocks for main roads. Fife Region, after only a fortnight actually ran out.
    Side streets and pavements are left to look after themselves. This is not a trivial task as I discovered when I was told by a local DIY store that sand, salt and gritt was unavailable. The government had bought it all up!
    Old and young alike, are breaking bones after slipping on untreated pavements.
    The shock, for the elderly, has already claimed lives.
    Already heavy gas usage industry has been asked to reduce consumption. This is remarkable. The recession and low level of heavy industry in the UK means that this usage was historically low anyway. Just how bad at doing their job are our public planners?
    Thanks to domestic fuel prices being hyper-inflated by planet saving activism, the poor will be struggling to keep their houses liveable. Those on pre-paid metering will just be cut off. Their pipes will freeze then burst.
    Gas prices may well be at a seven year low but consumer prices have never been higher!
    I’ve always been unhappy about the rise of the “who can I sue” culture in this country but it has its place.
    Car damaged?
    Pipes burst?
    Bones broken?
    Grannie frozen?
    Business bankrupted?

    Who are you gonna sue?
    Local Government? National Government? Academia? The Met office?
    All of the above?

  32. Robinson says:

    I suppose we will soon get GISS’s announcement that December was the, what, the seventh? Hows that sound? Lets go with seventh warmest December on record. Go GISS!

    Interesting. I wonder how they’ll spin/adjust it? Anything other than coldest for 25 years will just look silly.

  33. DavidE says:

    AdderW (15:42:06) :

    The most frightening thing about the current arguments is that the Sun which couldn’t possibly be the cause of warming is now trotted out as the cause of cooling.

    Strange how cooling is always natural but warming is our fault

    DaveE.

  34. DirkH says:

    Where’s the troll spin in this thread? Hello? All busy?

    [ I suspect they are reading the in house legal memos post Copenhagan. ;-) -mod ]

  35. photon without a Higgs says:

    Mack28 (14:54:10) :

    The Times quotes a Chinese observer blaming the Big Freeze on Global Warming.

    Do you have a link?

  36. photon without a Higgs says:

    Mack28 (14:54:10) :

    I see you already posted it later.

  37. kadaka says:

    E.M.Smith (15:39:26) :

    Well, I noticed when discussing Climategate that the word F-R-A-U-D got me tossed in the bin. WordPress has an odd assortment of words it’s ‘hinky’ about… You can add to the built in list, but not reduce it. (Wonder what legal sites do on WordPress? ;-)

    Test: Put single letter in italics so word is “broken up” to filter but looks acceptable (works on Intense Debate sites).

    Result: fraud

  38. TH says:

    As a soccer player I have given up on outdoor soccer in Colorado. The last few spring and fall seasons have been ruined by cold and snow. (Fortunately we have a number of indoor facilities nearby.) Colorado winters have become much longer and colder in recent years. We used to play outdoors all winter long.

  39. Alan S. Blue says:

    Dr. Keen:

    Something I’ve been somewhat concerned about with the usage of the surface station measurements aligns with your work here.

    Would it be possible to perform a formal calibration of the Coal Creek surface station measurement to the temperatures reported via satellite? I’d be interested in the strictly local calibration, as well as how well that single measurement might serve as a proxy for the state-wide satellite measurement.

  40. Jack in Oregon says:

    OT New Jersey Nuke plant has been throttled back because of Ice build up in the river nearby.

    …Officials said the power plant in Salem County had to shut down one generator and reduce power in another at about 8 a.m. Saturday due to floating ice on the river.

    Ice was accumulating on rotating screens used to take water to a non-radioactive part of the plant.

    Plant officials told Eyewitness News that it is the first time that they had to take this unusual step because of ice….

    http://cbs3.com/local/nuclear.power.plant.2.1404207.html

    So it appears that NG and Coal are the only safe sources of baseload power. If it gets really cold, the N class plants will have icing issues. A long winter could tests things.

  41. Andrew30 says:

    DirkH (16:06:14) :

    Re: “Where’s the troll spin in this thread?”

    Notice for Skeptical Scientists and other Critical Thinkers.

    Since the start of the scientific method blackout at CRU in 1986 there have been other cutbacks. Due to the shortage of trained pro-AGW realclimate.com rebuttalists, we have introduced a self-serve rebuttal system.

    To use this new self-serve system simply go to the rebuttal site indicated below and cut and paste the rebuttal that most closely matches the topic of your informed statement into the next available comment window.

    For a more immediate rebuttal paste it into the same window as your informed comment.

    For a more scientific realclimate.com rebuttal you may choose to add the phrase “Oh Yea!” at the beginning and the phrase “So There!!!!!!” at the end.

    scienceblogs.com/illconsidered/2008/07/how_to_talk_to_a_sceptic.php

    Realclimate/CRU thanks you for you support during these trying times.

  42. photon without a Higgs says:

    Where’s the troll spin in this thread? Hello? All busy?

    [ I suspect they are reading the in house legal memos post Copenhagan. ;-) -mod ]

    They are huddled up under the bridge because it’s so cold and warming their hands ’round a fire of coal in an oil barrel. They moved the temp station in the area next to the fire.

  43. hotrod says:

    Gary Hladik (15:19:28) :

    So if this site correlates well with the rest of Colorado’s stations, then the state as a whole must be cooling. As a reward, perhaps the state should be exempted from all CO2 emission restrictions.

    In fact, I think we should exempt any state whose “official” temperatures start to decline.

    Nothing like a little incentive… :-)

    If you look at the official National Weather Service numbers for Heating degree days in Colorado and Cooling Degree Days you see some clear evidence of a cooling trend.

    Cooling degree days (Jan 1 to Jan 1)
    2009 ….. TOTAL FM JAN 1 533 DPTR FM NORMAL -163
    2008 …. TOTAL FM JAN 1 825 DPTR FM NORMAL +129
    2007 …. TOTAL FM JAN 1 963 DPTR FM NORMAL +267
    2006 …. SEASONAL TOTAL: 961 DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL: +265
    2005 …. SEASONAL TOTAL: 927 DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL: +231
    (cooling started in 2008 for summer temperatures)

    Heating degree days
    2009 ….. TOTAL FM JUL 1 2854 DPTR FM NORMAL +260 (July 1 – Jan 3 2010)
    2008 ….. TOTAL FM JUL 1 5616 DPTR FM NORMAL -512 (full heating season)
    2007 ….. TOTAL FM JUL 1 6056 DPTR FM NORMAL -72
    2006 ….. TOTAL FM JUL 1 6208 DPTR FM NORMAL +80
    2005 ….. Seasonal Total: 5876 Departure from Normal: -252
    (high variability in heating degree days with sharp increase in heating demand this fall and winter)

    As you can see this was an unusually cool summer (-163 cooling degree days from normal) and so far a cool winter season with heating degree days running +260 and we have not even seen the coolest part of the season yet. We are expecting single digit lows the next two days and Dr. Keen should see sub zero F temps up where he lives given normal lapse rates. Although sometimes cool air pools down here in the metro area and is not deep enough to effect the upper reaches of Coal Creek Canyon.

    When I used to live up there sometimes you would drive down the hill and see a sudden temperature drop as you drove into the pool of cold air as you neared Rocky Flats as H72 leveled off on the high ground above the metro area. The Denver basin is well known for temperature inversions in winter with a cold pool of air that sloshes up and down the Platte River valley each day. Settling near Greeley in the early morning, then sliding up into the Denver metro area as day time heating pulls air up the river valley. It then sinks back toward Greeley every evening after sunset. This is yet another good reason NOT to smear temperature data from one site to another nearby site. In this part of the country, you can see 30 deg F temperature differences between locations only 2 miles apart if their elevations straddle an inversion layer.

    http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=bou

    Note that for the state numbers that it appears the cooling started around 2007 based on cooling degree days but the Heating Degree Days show much more variability in winter temps with 2005 and 2008 being very warm winters. Massive temperature differences can occur near the front range due to chinook winds here in Denver with the western metro area 20-30 degrees warmer than the official reporting sites on the eastern edge of the Denver area, and this might account for that high variability. (yet another reason not to smear temperature data!)
    It is not uncommon to see a sharp temperature gradient as you move out from the front range due to westerly down slope winds, with above freezing temperatures on the western edge of the metro area, below freezing temps on the eastern edge and near zero readings just a few miles farther east out on the plains.

    We had a cool winter in 2006 and a very cool winter season so far in the 2009-2010 heating season. It would take a very warm spring to recover these numbers to near normal if late January and the first 2 weeks of February are typical. Our coldest period of the year frequently falls from mid January to mid Feb which is why it is often referred to as “Stock Show weather” locally, as that is about the time the National Western Stock show comes to town each year.

    Larry

  44. Joe Crawford says:

    re: TH (16:29:46) :

    As a soccer player I have given up on outdoor soccer in Colorado. The last few spring and fall seasons have been ruined by cold and snow. (Fortunately we have a number of indoor facilities nearby.) Colorado winters have become much longer and colder in recent years. We used to play outdoors all winter long.

    Hal & Charlie (KHOW?) use to brag about the avg. of 37-39 days a year you couldn’t play golf in Denver. It sounds like they might have to up that number by a few days this winter.

  45. photon without a Higgs says:

    The recent cooling trend continues, with 2009 coming in at 38.9F, colder than 2008 and a full 3 degrees F colder than 2003. The “Tipping Point” in 2003-2004 is clear on the updated graph.

    There has also been longer winters for 4 years in a row now in the Huancavelica region of the Andes Mountains of Peru.

    But, for the fourth year running, the cold came early.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jan/03/peru-mountain-farmers-winter-cold

  46. Tilo Reber says:

    Much as I hate the cold we’re experiencing in Colorado, I’m praying that we’ll get a patch that’s cold enough to kill the pine borrer beatles. They’re making a real mess of things.

  47. John Sims says:

    I met an acquaintance today in the village shop, and she said that our harsh winters (in UK) were due to global warming. I replied along the lines of “Huh?”, to which she replied that Greenland ice melts and affects (desalinates) the gulf stream which stops working so well and so makes things colder. (Let’s forget for the moment that the gulf stream has little effect upon North America or Siberia etc.) When I got home, I looked for some reference to this tale, and found this: http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/global-warming-may-lead-to-colder-winters-in-britain-406084.html. Of course, the usual “could”s and “may”s were sparsely embedded (as in “The sea level could rise by 25 feet within twenty years due to AGW”).

    Now I’ve read somewhere that a release of gigantic amount of fresh water from North America some several thousands of years ago did affect the gulf stream. However, I doubt very much whether the much smaller quantity of melted Greenland ice has had other than a miniscule effect on today’s gulf stream.

    Does anyone with more knowledge than I care to contribute their thoughts on this subject?

  48. pat says:

    anthony,
    what do u make of this:

    Australian: Samantha Maiden: Labor seizes on temperature figures as evidence of global warming
    Environment Minister Peter Garrett said today the finding that Australia’s annual mean temperature for 2009 was 0.9C above the 1961-90 average exposed Tony Abbott’s false climate change claim that global warming has stopped…
    “2009 ends Australia’s warmest decade on record, with a decadal mean temperature anomaly of +0.48C (above the 1961-90 average),” the Bureau of Meterology said…
    In a statement, the bureau also noted that the World Meteorological Organisation stated that 2009 is expected to be the globe’s fifth warmest year on record (about 0.44C above the 1961-90 average)
    “A cooler-than-average global mean temperature has not been recorded since 1985, with the last decade also being the globe’s warmest on record. Increasing global mean temperatures derived from instrumental measurements are consistent with other independent indicators of climate change, such as reductions in sea-ice and snow cover, and record high global sea levels,” it said.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/labor-seizes-on-temperature-figures-as-evidence-of-global-warming/story-e6frg6xf-1225816209762

    so far i see no comments – any comments would be appreciated as this is going to be used for the ETS.

  49. Basil says:

    spangled drongo (15:47:19) :

    Would have expected December to be even lower.

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/

    Would have been lower, if it were not for El Nino.

  50. John Galt says:

    Obviously, it’s worse than we thought!

    2-4 more inches of global warming expected this week in the Kansas City area. We are already still buried under a near-record global warming from Christmas Eve, plus 3 or more inches last weekend. We are also enduring record cold, with no end in site. I haven’t seen weather like this since the 1970s. How much more global warming must we endure before we freeze to death?

  51. hotrod says:

    I just had an interesting idea. I know we have several regular contributors here that live in Colorado and the Denver Metro area, and was thinking it would be interesting to do an Urban heat island test, and get a number of individuals to make simultaneous temperature readings (or as close as reasonably possible) across the Denver Metro basin and surrounding areas.

    It might be useful to get a snap shot of how much temperature variability you see in this sort of transitional terrain. I imagine it would make for some useful documentation to show a representative example of real metro area temperature profiles vs temperature records which are “reconstructed” by synthesizing data from nearby reporting stations using the sort of techniques used by the “official sources” and their corrections.

    If Dr. Keen or anyone else here in the metro area is interested, perhaps we could put together a temperature snap shot project?

    Throw in a dozen or two interested college students and we could get perhaps 30 temperatures across the metro basin and nearby terrain.

    If so the moderators, can share my email info with others interested in this sort of ground truth project.

    Larry

  52. DavidE says:

    John Sims (17:27:29) :

    One of the hypotheses regarding the Younger Dryas is indeed a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation. However, even wikipedia notes that this does not explain why South America cooled first. I don’t think there is yet a definitive answer to this one.

    You could try telling your acquaintance that she may be better off getting her science from here rather than The day after tomorrow.

    DaveE.

  53. Graeme W says:

    Pat (17:35:01) , this just goes to show that climate is regional. The USA is going through one of it’s coldest winters while Australia is going through an above average summer.

    I think more than anything it demonstrates the nonsense of having a global mean temperature. When you have two disparate regions having temperature extremes, averaging them and saying that there was an 0.?? degree increase for the year overall is… well… silly.

  54. Wayne Delbeke says:

    The Gulf Stream is not nearly so susceptible to upset as previously believed. It was once depicted as a “conveyor” system with warm water flowing northward and, it was believed, a deep water return system brought cooled water back south. WIth modern buoys, it was found that the Gulf stream is not as “confined” as it was believed and the “return conveyor” did not exist. The return flow is diffuse with many eddies and branches. In addition, fresh water floats on top of salt water. Consequently, the researchers determined that melting water from Greenland is highly unlikely to drastically affect the Gulf Stream. There are many other factors that affect it. The draining of Lake Aggasiz may have affected climate in Europe 11,000 years ago but that now appears to be an item for debate. It is not even mentioned in the local information for the Province of Manitoba that used to be under Lake Aggasiz: http://www.mhs.mb.ca/docs/mb_history/19/lakeagassiz.shtml

    You can do a search on Lake Aggasiz and decide for yourself.

    Here is a recent research article that suggest the cooling was NOT due to rapid draining of Lake Aggasiz:
    https://mywebspace.wisc.edu/loope/web/UW_Web_Loope/Website_Template/Lowell%20et%20al.%20-%20Testing%20the%20Lake%20Agassiz%20meltwater%20trigger%20for%20the%20Younger%20Dryas.pdf

  55. Etruscan says:

    Remember not long ago James Hansen and others called for skeptics to be put on trial. Now the situation is reversed, and pro-AGW scientists have betrayed our trust with Climategate. The ramifications of meddling with climate data are severe, including not only a huge waste of money and resources, but also endangering the lives of millions of people who are forced to cope with cold temperatures and misguided legislation.

    Madoff went to prison for swindling thousands of investors. Is Climategate any different? There should be a penalty for scientists who knowingly tamper with crucial climate data, like jailtime. It’s our lives, and our Earth that the warmists are messing with. The geo-engineering schemes that have been proposed to halt “global warming” would have even worse consequences.

  56. TeresaV says:

    Blaming global warming for extreme weather events seems to be the new theme. Well for hurricanes, more rain than normal etc. that sounds like it could be true but now I hear folks using this ‘extreme weather due to global warming’ as explanation for unusual cold snaps. I surely hope THAT fails the BS test with the majority of their audience.

  57. Lance says:

    I worked for Environment Canada back in 1978-80 , and did a stint up in the High Arctic (Eureka). Left that job but in 1990, became a volunteer for them in Okotoks, AB. Canada.

    I operate the ‘climate’ station for Environment Canada and have 20 years worth of data. Over that period of time, average temperature 4.6 C

    Indeed, I have a decline also, albiet more recent. 2006, temp was 6.0 C, 2009, 3.9 C, at this rate of decline, we will be in an ice age very shortly!

    http://www.lanceappleby.com/OkotoksWeather/GraphsFolder/Okotoks%20Yearly%20Summary.gif

    HIDE THE DECLINE!

  58. AJ says:

    “It would be instructive to see records from other observers who have quality records of long duration.”

    How about Sable Island? It’s a 25 mile sandbar 100 miles off the coast of Nova Scotia. Current population: 5

    Temperature data for 1897-2007 can be found here:

    http://www.climate.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/climateData/bulkdata_e.html?timeframe=3&Prov=XX&StationID=6454&Year=1891&Month=1&Day=1&format=csv&type=mly

    Note that the 2002-2005 period is missing from the above dataset, which can be partially infilled using:

    http://www.climate.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/climateData/bulkdata_e.html?timeframe=3&Prov=XX&StationID=26864&Year=2002&Month=1&Day=1&format=csv&type=mly

    Additional info, including weather station pics can be found here:

    http://www.greenhorsesociety.com/Station_Operations/station_operations.htm

    http://www.greenhorsesociety.com/Station_Met/meteorology.htm

    I found the Tmax and Tmin trends interesting. The Tmax trend was positive, while the Tmin trend was negative for the period I examined. This is one of the foggiest places on earth, so this may point to a trend towards less fog (warmer days, cooler nights maybe). There are a few buildings in the area, so this could also be explained by energy efficiency retrofits producing less waste heat. I know waste heat can effect temperature readings as I’ve experienced running into the odd warm spot when swimming at a crowded beach ;>

    The pics also show concrete paths leading up to the Stevenson screen, which would be an issue Anthony would point out. Interestingly, the runway is the beach, so tarmac warming shouldn’t be a factor.

    AJ

  59. John from MN says:

    I believe This are in Colorado is Rural. If you go out to any rural area and do a temp study, you will find no Warming. It is all the Urban Heat Island throwing of the Data. Yesterday it was 21 degrees warmer in my rural area right out-side Minneapolis, than Minneapolis. Get rid of the Urban Heat Island and the Global Warming would disapear…….John….

  60. Skidude says:

    I just checked Roy Spencer’s site and the December satelite reading for December is +.28 for December, which surprised me. I live in New Hampshire, and it certainly has been cold for most of the month, so I expected to see some sort of drop, particularly with reports of cold from around the globe.

    I recall that during periods of supposed surface warming, the satelite results showed almost no change. Perhaps this is really consistant, as the satelite results from 300K readings from all over the globe, and not just from one hemisphere.

  61. DavidE says:

    John from MN (18:21:54) :

    Yesterday it was 21 degrees warmer in my rural area right out-side Minneapolis, than Minneapolis.

    You’ve just described an urban cool island John if what you say is true, (that your rural site was 21 degrees warmer)

    DaveE.

  62. niphredilflower says:

    I think Al Gore must be santa claus cos the Gore effect has spread the world over. Thanks for your report, the whole international record needs a full investigation in my opinion. Would love it if more people would report on their local station data.

    I feel a change in the air, keep up the good work Anthony x

  63. Richard Keen says:

    Lots of neat discussion about little ol’ Coal Creek Canyon!
    Here’s a few more cents …

    >>Bill Parsons (15:31:54) :
    It would be instructive to see records from other observers who have quality records of long duration.
    I keep wondering whether coop observers would be willing to just start sending copies of all observations to a neutral party from now on. Might pay to have copies of records if they are getting trashed and distorted.
    It is, as Dr. Keen notes, his (and other station-keepers’) work that’s being undermined.

    REPLY>>
    The NCDC publication “Climatological Data – State, Month, Year” and the like have the original unaltered observations, so there’s no need to bypass the system. Here’s the data flow:
    Co-op observers send their data to the local NWS office at the end of the month on a B-91 form. The local office looks for discrepancies, and contacts the observer for correction.
    The local NWS sends the B-91 to NCDC, who publishes the data in the CD (state, month, year). You can download the B-91 forms at:
    http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/coop/coop.html
    NCDC does a little automated quality checking with a routine that compares a station with neighboring stations to find issues like a day with a max of 72 when neighboring stations were in the 20′s. It works pretty well in places like Iowa and Florida, but a few times they “corrected” my observations on days when my site was warmer than lower stations due to inversions. I had backup recordings that showed the original observations were correct, and their QC routine was actually introducing error. I griped, and NCDC no longer uses that routine for my site. This is a form of homogenization, but NCDC publishes both the original and the “corrected” data in the CD.
    These “corrected” numbers from the B-91 go to the NCDC monthly averages and to other sites like the Western Regional Climate Center at:
    http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/Climsum.html
    Then the climate change interrogators at NCDC, CRU, and GISS get their hands on this original data and, as they say, torture it until it confesses.

    >>royfomr (15:49:36) :
    Excellent post Richard but scary, real scary!
    Studies like yours are the ones that really do matter. Weather kills, climate doesn’t!

    REPLY>>
    I think the largest (more than 1 degree C) and most important climate changes are regional – Western US, northern Alaska, etc. – and that those variations are dominated by oceanic influences (PDO, AMO, Nino, etc.), which in turn modulate the weather (storm tracks, number of hurricanes, droughts, …). The much smaller “global average” changes are tweaked by volcanoes, solar variations, cosmic rays, and, yes, greenhouse gases, but these are all in the fractional degree range (say, 0.2C or so).

    >>Alan S. Blue (16:31:53) :
    Dr. Keen:
    Something I’ve been somewhat concerned about with the usage of the surface station measurements aligns with your work here.
    Would it be possible to perform a formal calibration of the Coal Creek surface station measurement to the temperatures reported via satellite? I’d be interested in the strictly local calibration, as well as how well that single measurement might serve as a proxy for the state-wide satellite measurement.

    REPLY>>
    Sorry to say, the correlation between CC annuals and MSU satellite temperatures is 0.33. Don’t know why that is, but, for example, the el Nino year 0f 1998 was the warmest of the MSU record for the Colorado grid point, but for Coal Creek it was quite average.

    >>hotrod (17:43:55) :
    I just had an interesting idea. I know we have several regular contributors here that live in Colorado and the Denver Metro area, and was thinking it would be interesting to do an Urban heat island test, and get a number of individuals to make simultaneous temperature readings (or as close as reasonably possible) across the Denver Metro basin and surrounding areas.

    REPLY>>
    Check out the personal weather station network on the Weather Underground at http://www.wunderground.com and on MESOWEST:
    http://www.met.utah.edu/jhorel/html/mesonet/
    You’d have to filter out the rooftop stations, those in garages, etc., but there’s dozens of site around metro Denver.

  64. DavidE says:

    John from MN (18:21:54) :

    Not to worry. I figured how they did it!

    They turned the air conditioners around & cooled outdoors, simultaneously heating indoors! (not so far-fetched if you look at the physics).

    DaveE.

  65. DirkH says:

    “John from MN (18:21:54) :

    Get rid of the Urban Heat Island and the Global Warming would disapear…….John….”

    He’s right! DESTROY THE CITIES!

  66. Mal says:

    RE; “2009 ends Australia’s warmest decade on record, with a decadal mean temperature anomaly of +0.48C (above the 1961-90 average),” the Bureau of Meterology said

    Why didn’t they use the 1961-2000 average? Perhaps it would have shown a fall.

  67. Douglas DC says:

    Today the NOAA long-range forecast was issued for the NE Oregon area, basically
    for January “Warmer than Normal and Normal Precipitation.”-due to El Nino-praise
    the Profit….
    Look out…

  68. Mal says:

    The heaviest snowfall to hit northern China in nearly six decades continued to snarl traffic yesterday, stranding thousands of passengers on railways and at airports.

    http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-01/05/content_9263331.htm

    Places in Inner Mongolia have had 3m of snow. The 20-30cm we had a few days ago in Beijing has partly been blown away by days of strong winds.

  69. juanslayton says:

    “This is an example of how one station’s data can be significant for assessing climate change, but only if the station is carefully installed and maintained, is in a location relatively free of non-climatic influences, has records that are diligently kept….”

    I have a bit of a problem with using this as an example. MMS shows that the location of the station was substatially changed in May of ’99, which appears to coincide with a sharp uptick in reported temperatures. Also, the coordinates for both locations do not appear to be credible locations, so unless someone has been there to take a look-see, we don’t know what the immediate surroundings of the station were. There are a couple of buildings in the area which might be candidates. The changeover to MMTS in 2004 also indicates that it will be near a building. This is not a USHCN station, so I can’t consult the gallery. : )

  70. Michael says:

    “2009 was another year of global cooling, which saw numerous low temperature and high snowfall records smashed. The Dutch canals for the first time in 12 years, record cold came to Al Gore’s home town and ironically a blizzard dumped snow on the Copenhagen convention where world leaders met to try and stop global warming. It was so cold that even the BBC was forced to ask, what happened to global warming? As Climategate would reveal, IPCC scientists had been hard at work hiding evidence of global cooling. Yet the observational evidence cannot be ignored.”

    Tons of links to cold climate stories.
    Global Cooling in 2009
    http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=16781

  71. David Ball says:

    Lance(18:20:56) should also point out that the population of Okotoks Alberta has more than doubled in the past 10 years. In the interests of honesty. It is also only ~10km south of Calgary following the Rocky Mountains. Additionally, it is an area of weather extremes, due to the mountains. We joke about having all 4 seasons in one day. It is often not a funny joke. It is worthy of note that the spokesman of Environment Canada David Phillips is listed as their senior climatologist. He has a B.A. in geography.

  72. DR says:

    What’s all the fuss about? The solution to all our energy problems is simple as pie:
    http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=powering-a-green-planet

  73. juanslayton says:

    Well, I see belatedly that Dr. Keen is in Coal Creek, so I reckon someone _has_ taken a look-see. Relieves my problem somewhat.
    John

  74. Michael says:

    “In truth, the world dodged a bullet in Copenhagen. There could have been significant damage to many nations’ economies if the warming alarmists’ full agenda had been adopted.

    But of course the game has not ended. Here in America, Mr. Obama, Congress and the Environmental Protection Agency all seem committed to regulating our behavior and consumption under the guise of addressing a crisis that is not a crisis. They will do so in a way that will not meaningfully reduce global temperatures, but will substantially hurt the economies and opportunities of the world’s people.”

    WSJ
    Copenhagen’s Dodged Bullet
    Modern men have lived through 20 sudden global warmings.
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704905704574622643206570348.html

    There should no longer be any question in anybodies mind as to extent and reach of the MSM propaganda machine. TV media is not your friend.

    Hot Weather Convinces Media of Climate Change; Cold Weather Ignored
    From 2003 heat wave that killed thousands, to melting Peruvian glaciers the news media find examples of global warming.
    http://www.businessandmedia.org/articles/2010/20100104141202.aspx

  75. Jim, too. says:

    According to the NCDC website, over the last 11 years (1999 to 2009) the average annual temperature change and winter (Dec thru Feb) temperature change(in degrees F) of the following states…

    CO was -1.59 / -3.71
    WY was -0.51 / -2.61
    NV was -0.65 / -2.52
    MT was -0.56 / -2.87
    UT was -1.27 / -3.63

    So it appears that a lot of cooling has gone on in the mountain states recently…

    J2

  76. Ian Cooper says:

    Pat

    I really have to wonder at where they get these figures from when they claim that the world was heating up in 2009. The last time I looked on a map New Zealand was part of that world. I can assure you that 2009 was not in any way even a warm year here, let alone a hot one. The coldest May on record nationwide was the start of a prolonged cold period that has persisted through to the end of the year.

    The only parts of the country to warm up were the far north of the North Island where they are experiencing drought, and the east coast of both Islands where the El Nino accentuated west-norwest air flow is hotter than normal due to the Fohn affect.

  77. Alan S. Blue says:

    I wasn’t really focused on comparing CC-to-global-average-temp-according-to-XYZ.

    I’m asking about a comparison: (Coal Creek Ground Station)-to-(Coal Creek Temperature according to satellite). Yes, that’s trickier to find. And something more than just a correlation coefficient – a bias, offset, and measurement-error-with-this-instrument sort of information.

    So many of the potential issues with the surface data would seem amenable to quantification. If, and only if, they were separated out from the slush-fund “anomaly” values.

  78. photon without a Higgs says:

    Nebraska has cold December

    December in top 5 for coldest ever

    http://new.khastv.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=19549&storytopic=4

  79. Brian D says:

    Two colder years in a row in my neck of the woods.

    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/work/gistemp/STATIONS//tmp.425727450002.1.1/station.gif

    The monthly values GISS has for this station in the text are equal to the monthly averages reported by Duluth in their NOW data. I just checked for this year. The last data point is for 2009. Only Dec hasn’t been added. It’ll tick up about 0.2 when it does.

  80. hotrod says:

    Richard Keen (18:49:49) :


    >>hotrod (17:43:55) :
    I just had an interesting idea. I know we have several regular contributors here that live in Colorado and the Denver Metro area, and was thinking it would be interesting to do an Urban heat island test, and get a number of individuals to make simultaneous temperature readings (or as close as reasonably possible) across the Denver Metro basin and surrounding areas.

    REPLY>>
    Check out the personal weather station network on the Weather Underground at http://www.wunderground.com and on MESOWEST:
    http://www.met.utah.edu/jhorel/html/mesonet/
    You’d have to filter out the rooftop stations, those in garages, etc., but there’s dozens of site around metro Denver.

    Thanks for the links, that is not quite what I had in mind, but I will dig through those sources and see how much is usable.

    Larry

  81. Richard Keen says:

    >>Alan S. Blue (19:49:23) :
    I wasn’t really focused on comparing CC-to-global-average-temp-according-to-XYZ.
    I’m asking about a comparison: (Coal Creek Ground Station)-to-(Coal Creek Temperature according to satellite). Yes, that’s trickier to find. And something more than just a correlation coefficient – a bias, offset, and measurement-error-with-this-instrument sort of information.

    REPLY>>
    Sorry to say, the correlation between CC annuals and MSU satellite temperatures is 0.33. Don’t know why that is, but, for example, the el Nino year 0f 1998 was the warmest of the MSU record for the Colorado grid point, but for Coal Creek it was quite average.
    >>>>I used the MSU data for the grid best fitting Colorado, i.e. “1979-2006 Temperature Time Series Latitude Range 37.5 to 42.5, Longitude Range -107.5 to -102.5 (from the MSU dataset)”. A guess as to why the MSU does not correlate well with the various surface records is that the MSU is weighted to the lower/mid troposphere, where Colorado is, so the microwave radiation picked up by the MSU includes not just air, but emissions from rocks, grass, and trees (yes, even bristlecones). Maybe the MSU experts have some better ideas.

  82. Mike G says:

    Jessie Ventura’s Conspiracy Theory show is on now (truTV). He’s already interviewed a mystery scientist and Richard Lindzen. They’re taking AGW apart at the moment. But, I suspect he’ll put it back together at the end. Not sure I can stay up that late, though.

    Driving in to Crystal River, FL, earlier this evening, it was 31F just north of town and 38F downtown. No UHI here, move along…

  83. Bill in Vigo says:

    Wonderful post Dr. Keen, I have been wondering about some of that as I have a weather station set up here at home. I realize that it needs some site adjustment as it is a little close to some trees but for the most part it seems to be fairly accurate. I have noticed that the nearest NWS site to me Birmingham, Alabama is almost always 5 to 8 degrees warmer than I am. The official site is at the Birmingham airport. I expect that and that it is on the north edge of the down town area (about 2 miles and surrounded by heavy industry might have something to do with that. I am quite rural with the nearest town only about 4 miles away with a population of 3,000 and no industry not even a power plant. As you say I expect that there are enough private owned weather stations that might be used to do research scattered around the country in true rural areas.

    Vboring, if the loss already of crops to the bio-fuel craze and the restrictions on certain fertilizers including CO2. The most prudent investment might just still be firearms and ammunition. If you can grow your own you might have to fight to keep it. The governments getting ready for warming has possibly prepared us to have a catastrophe if the cooling continues at the current rate.

    By the way here in NE Alabama we are due to receive some of that white global warming later this week with near record low temps and possibly near record low high temps also. Also talking about record numbers of days below freezing temp with out break. the next couple of weeks will give most of us in the “deep south” about all the global warming we can stand.

    Bill Derryberry

  84. Ira says:

    Good information and very nice graphic that clearly shows warming in Coal Creek from 1985 through 2003, and then a drastic cooling from 2003 to 2009 giving back 2/3 of the warming.

    However, the writer uses “tipping point” to refer to the inflection in the graph at 2003. This usage, IMHO, may muddy the AGW discussion.

    As used by the Alarmists, the “tipping point” is the point of no return. For example, when a boat rolls beyond a certain point, it will tip over and sink.

    The Alarmists believe that human-generated greenhouse gasses cause excess warming, melting sea ice and uncovering open water which reflects less sunlight than ice. This, in turn, causes still more rapid warming in a vicious cycle. Their “tipping point” comes when so much ice has melted that no amount of reduction in greenhouse gas production can prevent further uncontrolled heating.

    Skeptics have been saying (correctly) that we have never been near any kind AGW of “tipping point”.

  85. Michael Hauber says:

    A check of a GISS trend map for 1999 to 2009 shows an area of 0.5-1 degree Celcius reduction in temperature for much of mid west US. This well maintained and sited station appears to be agreeing at least roughly with what GISS says the temperature is doing in that location once all the adjustements etc have been made.

    This particular 10 year decline is certainly not hidden, at least in GISS, and is quite obvious over a rather large area of North America, and is even stronger in Canada. Of course it happens to be offset by warming in other parts of the Globe.

  86. Pete of Perth says:

    Are the studies investigating the correlation of enviro variables & tree growth where they actually measure these next to the trees which are then cored?

  87. Dr. Bob says:

    Cooling and mentions of the IPCC…

    http://www.theclimateconspiracy.com/?p=43

    The above blog demonstrates, unequivocally (ha!), that using the same logic as the IPCC we can prove 8-9 years of recent cooling.

    Excellent post, Dr. Keen.

  88. Thanks, Dr. Keen, for the excellent records and reporting from Coal Creek Canyon, Colorado.

    Unfortunately scientists have been trained with grant funds like Pavlov’s dogs were trained with dog biscuits.

    I personally watched this development in the space science community since 1960. Yet I had no idea the corruption was so widespread until the hacked e-mails exposed the Climategate scandal.

    Best wishes to you and yours for the New Year!
    Oliver K. Manuel

  89. Squidly says:

    Meanwhile, in Al Gore’s home town, it was 9F this morning and we are supposed to get 1-3 inches of global warming on Thursday. Oh what fun it is …

    I WANT MY GLOBAL WARMING BACK!!!

  90. debreuil says:

    A really interesting poll in Canada, one question was:

    Global warming is human induced, planet is in peril, agree?

    And here in Manitoba/Saskatchewan only 37% agreed, lowest in the country. To put that is perspective a bit, these provinces are all about farming, and the farming is VERY weather dependent being so far north (they farm going north until they can’t anymore). Every farmer I know here is weather freak. My grandfather kept meticulous records of everything 50 years. A friend even has a temperature/humidity/wind/precipitation digital read out over his bed (forget mood lights or mirrors : ).

    They also keep track of the weather in places the other giant grain regions of the world, as that affects prices. So any conversation about weather and warming tends to be pretty specific, they rattle of the warm and cool years (and wet/dry, frost dates etc etc). Oh, and they tend to go outside fairly regularly.

    I suspect there is a bit of an rural urban thing going on here, where people in cities get the weather from the news (general is fine), where rural people need much more local and detailed information. So in the city you take the news people’s word for ‘hot year’ and ‘cold year’, where it is a farmer’s business to know things themselves. Interestingly the conclusion from most media here tends to be that the farm belt needs more education about climate, lol.

    http://www.torontosun.com/news/canada/2010/01/04/12337176-sun.html

    Human induced, planet is in peril?

    Atlantic 49%
    Quebec 69%
    Ontario 51%
    Man./Sask. 37%
    Alberta 40%
    B.C. 51%

  91. Ed Murphy says:

    Highlights on the Show…January 4 – 8, 2010 | Thom Hartmann

    … Chance to Save Humanity” Thom speaks with Dr. James Hansen about his new book

    http://www.thomhartmann.com/2010/01/04/highlights-on-the-show-january-4-8-2010/

    This is ground zero for liberals and the liberal movement, they should be taking callers. hint, hint

  92. Patrick Davis says:

    OT, it’s now official, on Channel 10 news (Seriously pro-AGW TV channel) the last decade was the warmest on record. For Australia, it was, on average (he he he), 0.9c above the average. LOL

  93. RoHa says:

    Farenheit?

    Catch up with the world.

  94. Bulldust says:

    The Australian BoM (Bureau of Meteorology) statement that was linked to the above story from pat (17:35:01) can be found here:

    http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/climate/change/20100105.shtml

    Something tells me that the BoM is lining up the stats for the Government to fight the Aussie ETS anew this year.

    I love the way that they say it is a drier year than the average, but the decadal rainfall averages have, if anything, been trending slighty upwards since 1900. Just eye-balling the annual rainfall data it is obvious there is stuff all trend in there. Drier than what exactly? 2009 looks wetter than more than half the preceding years by simply laying a straight edge over the graph … yes, I was an engineer in my younger days. If it takes me half a second to figure that out, what makes them think they can peddle this blatently incorrect illusion?

    Anyway, it seems according to the Labor politicians that the Aussie BoM has now proved global warming beyond a doubt… how I would love to see a station-by-station Darwin style analysis to show how cooked the books probably are.

  95. Bulldust says:

    Ooops I missed that they said it was drier in the southeast mainland… what blatant cherry picking.

  96. hotrod says:

    Just for grins I pulled a little data from the links Dr. Keen gave me above.

    REPLY>>
    Check out the personal weather station network on the Weather Underground at http://www.wunderground.com and on MESOWEST:
    http://www.met.utah.edu/jhorel/html/mesonet/
    You’d have to filter out the rooftop stations, those in garages, etc., but there’s dozens of site around metro Denver.

    I have not had time to do any controls for bad site placement, but these 38 automated weather stations are generally high quality automated stations costing $500 and up, a few are professional stations run by Colorado Dept of Health.

    Here are the high, low and average temperatures reported for today Jan 4, 2010 over an area of Northwest Denver Metro area covering the communities of :

    Arvada, Broomfield, Superior, Louisville and Lafayette.

    This encompasses mostly rolling foot hills and mixed suburban residential areas and some areas flanked by large areas of open space prairie and large open lots. These communities cover an area of about 14 miles north to south and 12 miles wide.


    station ID Lat Long Hi Lo AV
    KCOARVAD6 39.83, -105.14 42.2 10.9 23.9
    KCOARVAD10 39.81, -105.18 42.3 15.1 26.9
    KCOARVAD12 39.82, -105.07 42.3 16.2 26.9
    KCOARVAD15 39.81, -105.13 41.8 13.4 26.3
    KCOARVAD17 39.82, -105.15 40.1 15.8 26.6
    KCOARVAD22 39.79, -105.11 45.1 13.7 27.8
    KCOGOLDE26 39.84, -105.22 39.4 18.9 29.4
    KCOARVAD25 39.79, -105.14 45.1 12.4 26.2
    MC8064 39.82, -105.18 – – --
    MCO109 39.87, -105.24 38.0 22.0 29.0
    MARVDA 39.80, -105.10 42.0 11.0 27.7
    KCOBROOM4 39.93, -105.11 46.5 15.6 26.7
    KCOBROOM15 39.92, -105.04 39.8 18.1 27.5
    KCOBROOM7 39.97, -105.05 37.0 17.3 26.8
    KCOBROOM9 39.94, -105.08 39.9 19.9 28.5
    KCOBROOM10 39.94, -105.08 42.8 19.0 30.9
    KCOBROOM20 39.89, -105.10 40.1 12.0 24.4
    MAP744 39.88, -105.09 40.0 16.0 25.9
    MRFN 39.91, -105.19 38.0 22.0 30.6
    KCOLAFAY1 40.00, -105.14 36.4 20.7 28.3
    KCOLAFAY7 40.06, -105.11 37.8 11.9 24.4
    KCOLAFAY9 40.01, -105.08 21.8 15.6 18.7
    KCOLAFAY11 40.06, -105.12 43.3 15.7 26.6
    KCOLAFAY12 40.02, -105.12 37.0 8.8 17.8
    KCOLAFAY13 39.96, -105.10 35.1 11.3 21.7
    MCO018 39.98, -105.10 – – –
    MD3562 39.98, -105.10 35.0 11.0 21.7
    KCOLOUIS3 39.96, -105.16 39.1 16.1 25.5
    KCOLOUIS9 39.98, -105.15 41.5 19.8 29.4
    MC7188 39.98, -105.14 39.0 14.0 24.9
    MLEWC2 39.99, -105.15 45.0 20.0 20.2
    MC2809 39.98, -105.11 39.0 11.0 23.4
    MC2474 39.98, -105.14 – – –
    KCOSUPER3 39.92, -105.16 41.7 18.2 28.1
    KCOSUPER4 39.92, -105.16 37.8 22.9 29.1
    KCOLOUIS7 39.94, -105.14 45.7 23.7 32.4
    KCOSUPER7 39.93, -105.16 68.0 -4.0 28.2
    KCOSUPER8 39.95, -105.18 44.6 15.9 25.9

    Reported High temperatures range from 68.0 F to 21.8 F and lows range from 23.7 F to -4.0 F. Computed average temperatures range from 32.4 F to 17.8 F.

    Instrumental accuracy is about +/- 1 deg F for the Davis Vantage Pro2 at 80 deg F according to the spec sheet, with greater errors at temperatures higher and lower than 80 deg F.

    I know these are not “professional’ Stevenson screens, and certainly I have not had the opportunity to do any site audits. But this gives a crude snapshot of temperature variations over a relatively small metropolitan area on a day that had relatively stable weather (no frontal passages, or extreme winds etc.) Elevation here is approximately 5800 ft give or take about 100 ft, compared to the station Dr. Keen monitors in Coal Creek Canyon approximately 20 miles west of this metro suburban area.

    Larry

  97. RoHa says:

    To Patrick.

    And yet here in sub-tropical Brisbane I felt cold during the day this winter. Usually I only feel cold at night.

    Right now it is summer, and we have had weeks of rain and the temperatures are in the twenties.

    I slept with my windows closed last night!

  98. kadaka says:

    Ira (20:34:53) :

    Skeptics have been saying (correctly) that we have never been near any kind AGW of “tipping point”.

    Here is how I used to argue with alarmists.

    Their evidence is showing we either have passed a tipping point or will inevitably do so. There is no debate on that. The permafrost is melting, releasing methane and other forms of long-trapped carbon. The Arctic sea ice is melting, exposing dark sea that will soak up the Sun’s rays, leading to more melting. The IPCC report (per Wikipedia) shows that even if we shut down all human emissions tomorrow, there will still be warming for centuries to come.

    The one time I was arguing, National Geographic Channel was showing Six Degrees Could Change The World. So what? Everything is showing we will get those 6 degrees Celsius eventually. Read the Wikipedia IPCC entries! We cannot stop it, all we can hope to alter is how fast we will get there, and we will likely get past that mark as well. What they are showing will happen, period. Those shows are a preview, they are not something we can avoid.

    Now then, for one thing, we humans want to believe we are the top product of evolution. Fine then, let’s prove it. Adapt or die. The changes will take generations, centuries. We have plenty of time to adapt. Move away from coastal areas we shouldn’t be living in anyway, too prone to hurricanes etc. Prepare for the vicious wild weather with more storm-resistant housing. There are many things we can do. Which will cost money. So why should we waste it trying to stop what we can’t prevent?

    Besides, carbon emissions will settle themselves out. As the fossil reserves run down and get more expensive the alternatives will see widespread deployment, our technology will improve in efficiency regardless, because we like cheap stuff that runs cheap. Just basic human nature. Spend the money there, lower the price tipping points with technological improvements, that’ll get the emissions down faster.

    For the final thing, think of the time scale. Per the IPCC, we will have warming for many generations to come. Many many generations. Could go on for millenia. We will have plenty of time to adapt, to change. When the rise finally levels off and the temperature stabilizes, to our descendants that will be what is normal to them. It will be what humans have adapted to after all that warming the IPCC considers inevitable. Ask yourself, would they want to go back? This is their normal, what they are used to. Even if they could cool the Earth down, would they? Would they want to return to the mythological cold times of their primitive ancient ancestors? If the world started cooling down naturally, would they allow it, or fight it?

    It was fun demolishing their arguments for carbon limiting, Kyoto and even more draconian schemes, and carbon sequestering etc, by pointing out what their own “science” was telling them would happen, away from the shrill alarmists promising doom tomorrow. For those who believe Climategate means nothing, the science is settled, they refuse to consider other research and scientific arguments, that are absolutely convinced their frostbite is proof of global warming… At least you can convince them the carbon schemes are worthless, using their own accepted much-prized and much-hyped science.

  99. Richard Henry Lee says:

    Dr. Keen,
    I found your station listed at NOAA here:
    http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwDI~StnSrch~StnID~20004000
    and the given Lat-Lon puts the station in the middle of a forest according to Google Earth. Is the location correct?
    Also, I note that NOAA wants to charge for downloading any data. I clicked on the data links and they wanted $10 to $70 to download data which was surprising since I thought the data was now available for free.

  100. brc says:

    pat 17:35:01

    Tried to post a comment at http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/labor-seizes-on-temperature-figures-as-evidence-of-global-warming/story-e6frg6xf-1225816209762 but it timed out. Perhaps they have server troubles and that’s why no comments.

    The interesting thing is the use of an average from 1961-1990, and the use of Australia averages to prove global warming. I bet if a skept Are the 2009 average global statistics out yet? Does anyone know where to get the average Australian temps for the last 100 years, instead of a cherry picked 29 year period?

    Australians need this info to combat the noise about to be eminating from the Labor party PR department.

  101. Patrick Davis says:

    “pat 17:35:01

    Tried to post a comment at http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/labor-seizes-on-temperature-figures-as-evidence-of-global-warming/story-e6frg6xf-1225816209762 but it timed out. Perhaps they have server troubles and that’s why no comments.”

    It is interesting they still use the 1961 – 1990 average to compare. So what about the 20 years from 1990 to 2010? I guess that would expose the decline.

  102. Lance says:

    David Ball (19:24:18) :
    Absolutely true, Population has doubled, actually, more than that! the area around me has grown considerable too. The Calgary Airport trend though is similar in respect to Okotoks, in that the last 3 years have also declined. However, there is no catastrophic warming going on, and the trend is slightly on the rise, however, time will tell what actually occurs here. I plan on contining my oberservations to see what trends occur.

  103. photon without a Higgs says:

    Squidly (21:38:38) :

    Meanwhile, in Al Gore’s home town, it was 9F this morning

    It’s supposed to warm a little on Tuesday and Wednesday but by Friday it’s supposed to be even colder than today.

    Wish we had cheaper electricity.

  104. Richard Keen says:

    >>hotrod (22:37:13) :
    Just for grins I pulled a little data from the links Dr. Keen gave me above.
    REPLY>>
    The Wunderground station KCOSUPER7 seems to have problems today (with the 68.0 max and the -4.0 min), and KCOLAFAY9 stopped recording at 7 am. So if you drop those stations the range of max temps is 46.5 F to 35.0 F and lows range from 23.7 F to 8.8 F. Of course, we’d have to see which ones have good siting. The Mesowest stations are all opertional grade, I think.

    >>Richard Henry Lee (22:49:30) :
    Dr. Keen,
    I found your station listed at NOAA here:
    http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwDI~StnSrch~StnID~20004000
    and the given Lat-Lon puts the station in the middle of a forest according to Google Earth. Is the location correct?
    Also, I note that NOAA wants to charge for downloading any data. I clicked on the data links and they wanted $10 to $70 to download data which was surprising since I thought the data was now available for free.

    REPLY>>Hi Richard,
    Those Lat-Longs only pin the place down to a square mile. The site has forest to the north and meadow to the south (see the red star on the photo), There are some trees (aspens and small lodgepole pines) close enough to partially shade the shelter off-and-on in the morning and evening, and a nearby ridge exceeds 5 degrees elevation. The site is probably a 2 or 3 on the CRN scale, but it is quite representative of the montane environment.
    Yep, NOAA charges civilians for some of their data. You can download it free from a .edu or .gov domain, so maybe you can find a university, school, or library to work from.

  105. Kevin says:

    You guys are all missing the bigger picture here. Didn’t you see the animated hockey stick graph? It proves runaway global cooling even more than Mann’s proved runaway global warming! We’re all going to freeze to death, sometime around 2020!

    And it’s all mankind’s fault too, though I haven’t yet worked out how we caused it. But I’ll figure out how to blame man soon enough. I’m an environmentalist!

  106. hotrod says:

    Richard Keen (23:49:13) :

    >>hotrod (22:37:13) :
    Just for grins I pulled a little data from the links Dr. Keen gave me above.
    REPLY>>
    The Wunderground station KCOSUPER7 seems to have problems today (with the 68.0 max and the -4.0 min), and KCOLAFAY9 stopped recording at 7 am. So if you drop those stations the range of max temps is 46.5 F to 35.0 F and lows range from 23.7 F to 8.8 F. Of course, we’d have to see which ones have good siting. The Mesowest stations are all opertional grade, I think.

    Yes in noticed the KCOSUPER7 is highly suspect with both the high and low temps for the entire group, there are probably several in that group that should be tossed but only after doing a little research.

    It is unfortunate that the general public has no appreciation about how much surface temperatures can vary over even relatively small areas like this sample. Not to mention site quality issues, instrumental precision issues and all the other considerations, such as smearing heat island corrections over hundreds of Km of ground to infill synthetic data were no real station data exists.

    Your comments about the satellites possibly getting confused because their sample level happens to have big pieces of rock sticking up into it in mountainous areas only adds one other possibility that needs to be evaluated. If they have systematically removed high altitude reporting grounds stations and then might accidentally be reading sun warmed rock faces and trees instead of cold mountain air in the high altitude areas of the world, could be a major issue if it checks out. That would seriously skew high altitude temperatures to the warm side I would suspect.

    The low correlation with ground truth is bothersome to me. Are you aware of any investigations into the possibility that they are seeing ground clutter temperatures rather than the lower troposphere air temperatures with the satellites ?

    Larry

  107. Barry Foster says:

    Damned weather here in England! We had -10 deg c here in Bournemouth last night – which is a popular summer beach town usually! We’ve got predictions of up to 10 inches of snow later today. Not good…

  108. John Peter says:

    The Telegraph headline today: Met Office chief receives 25 pc pay rise
    The head of the Met Office, the national weather service which has been heavily criticised for getting its forecasts wrong, is now paid more than the Prime Minister, after receiving a 25 per cent pay rise. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/6931584/Met-Office-chief-receives-25-pc-pay-rise.html

    A Met Office spokesman said Mr Hirst’s total pay had jumped because a “performance related bonus” from 2007/8 was paid in 2008/9. There was no underlying increase in salary, she said.

    She said: “John Hirst’s salary reflected the need to bring in, and appropriately reward, skills to meet the significant opportunities and challenges in our weather and climate business.

    So the worse your performance in the UK public sector the higher the bonus you can expect. Happy times. Note the “weather and climate business” bit. I actually used to think their primary role was to provide reliable weather forecasts as a public service. How times have changed.

  109. observer says:

    eg Real Science: Aeronautical Science. Aeronautical engineer ensures principle of wing lift (higher pressure below wing and lower pressure above wing) is adhered to. Consequences: Passenger flies from A to B in one piece. eg Shit Science: Climate Science IPCC brand. Hopelessly biased commentator issues bulletin declaring a positive temp anomaly where there is in fact a negative. Consequences. IPCC BS agenda is advanced. Wantonly gullible general public further conned. Question: What be the consequences if the aeronautical engineer declared that wing design now promotes higher pressure above the wing instead of lower? Not going to happen. No smoke and mirrors to exploit here. Back to the BS brand of IPCC climate science where the revenue rip off is ripe for the picking.

  110. observer says:

    btw: re SH summer. As our kiwi friends attest, NZ is having below average temps (There have been several mountain snowfalls) Australia has experienced High pressure belts across the central part that have driven north to north east winds into Perth and north winds into Adelaide and Melbourne to an extent. This migration of NT and desert air elevates temps in Perth and Adelaide, Melbourne as it always has. But the average Ozzie mug falls for the agw alarmist line that the above average temps in Perth et al are due to agw. The notion of low and high pressure driven wind, and how it carries heated air (simple as that concept is) as the real cause is not known to these people. No wonder the BOM has started the alarmist talk of runaway high temps, at the behest of every vested interest that wants to rip off a compliantly ignorant general public. btw: the eastern seaboard of Oz has been quite cool this summer. I tip a bumper ski season here with a breaking up of these stubborn blocking highs allowing some intense low pressures and cold fronts to dump a lot of snow in our mountains this winter.

  111. ralph says:

    Here are some headlines from the “You Could Not Make It Up” department.

    Britain freezes in 2010
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1240629/At-mercy-deep-freeze-Schools-shut-firms-hit–6-inches-snow.html

    World freezes in 2010.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1240319/As-Britain-told-expect-snow-10-days-rest-world-coping-Arctic-weather.html

    2010 will be one of the warmest years on record?
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1103094/Next-year-set-warmest-record.html

    Methinks the media is becoming irrelevant.

    .

  112. juanslayton says:

    Richard Keen & Alan Blue

    “Don’t know why that is, but, for example, the el Nino year 0f 1998 was the warmest of the MSU record for the Colorado grid point, but for Coal Creek it was quite average.”

    Still suspicious of the apparent step change in temperature in ’99 coinciding with the station location change. It the temp rise is an artifact of the location change, would a downward adjustment improve the correlation with MSU?

  113. juanslayton says:

    Also wondering about the sudden downward trend in 2004 coinciding with the change from min-max to MMTS measurement. Do these instrument changes generally agree without adjustment?

  114. ralph says:

    >>It looks like we must have gone overboard with the
    >>fluorescent light bulbs and stuff…

    In Britain we have. We have given out 200 million for free, due to a quirk in government Eco policy. Because I changed supplier, I have 50 sitting in a cupboard. Now how economical and Eco friendly is that??

    http://www.google.nl/search?q=%22daily+mail%22+low+energy+light+bulbs+free&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a

    Our government has tried to recreate the USSR’s command economy – telling us what is best for us – and they have delivered the same inefficiencies and stupidities if the USSR’s system. The latter, of course, collapsed in economic ruin.

    .

  115. ralph says:

    >>They turned the air conditioners around & cooled
    >>outdoors, simultaneously heating indoors! (not so far-
    >>fetched if you look at the physics).

    Its called a heat-pump, and many businesses use them. Most of the heat is just recycled (outside to inside and back again), but it could make the area around a building a degree or two cooler than ambient.

    .

  116. Barry Foster says:

    John Peter. Disgusting, and so typical of the UK today. Where my wife works, people get promoted when they’re incompetent because they don’t know what to do with them and can’t sack them. To stop them causing any more damage they shift them to a job (always up a peg) where they can’t cause any harm by their incompetence. I love England, but I really do think it’s rapidly going down the drain. We seem to have lost the plot. Even our football is imploding – watch teams go bust within the next year due to ridiculous wage bills. The Met Office are grossly incompetent, and completely indicative of the way things are going.

  117. View from the Solent says:

    Not up on the UK Advertising Standards Authority site yet (it’s DB of decisions is updated each Wednesday), but according to
    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/01/05/times_asa_wrong/
    The Times has just had its knuckles rapped for false AGW advertising.

  118. Deadman says:

    A general question: is anyone collating the averages of temperatures across the whole of a day? It seems to me that oftentimes a day which is a moderately warm 21C but for one brief maximum of 29 will be recorded as a hot day, and demonstrably warmer than a day which is consistently 25 from mid-morning to late arvo and which accordingly feels warmer.
    “News” shows here in Australia are consistently telling me that last year was the hottest recorded: I doubt this, but it may be true (if I believe the BOM, as reported) that the recorded maxima have indeed been the highest.

  119. brc says:

    I mangled my earlier comment. What I meant to say was : imagine if skeptics presented cooling in Australia as evidence of global cooling. There would be a lot of protest because it’s a region specific measuremen, and changes in the global average is what is measured. Yet warming in Australia is evidence of global warming, with no reference to the overall global temp for 2009.

  120. Don Keiller says:

    I knew it wouldn’t take long…
    before some bozo linked the current cold weather to “Global Warming”.

    “Guo Hu, the head of the Beijing Meteorological Bureau, linked this week’s conditions to unusual atmospheric patterns caused by global warming.”

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weather/article6975867.ece

  121. artwest says:

    OT:
    More heavy snowfalls in the UK and on the BBC 1pm News Paul Hudson was allowed a whole 20 seconds to remind us that the Met Office’s forecast for this winter was as wrong as last winter’s and last summer’s.
    Things must be getting really fraught backstage if even such a mild rebuke was aired.

  122. photon without a Higgs says:
  123. Steve M. from TN says:

    More weather is not climate news: High temps here have been 20f(~10c) below normal for a week, and appear to be continuing that for the next week. Low temps have been 10F(~5c) below normal as well.

  124. A C Osborn says:

    debreuil, your poll results just go to show what an uphill struggle we still have to educate people.
    61% still believe in AGW.

  125. Harry says:

    “Didn’t you see the animated hockey stick graph? It proves runaway global cooling even more than Mann’s proved runaway global warming! We’re all going to freeze to death, sometime around 2020!”

    Not to worry…there is a company named Holley that makes a thing called a ‘four barrel carburetor’. If you bolt one onto your car you’ll produce enough soot in a week to turn a small town black. It’s how we averted the ice-age in the 70′s. ;)

  126. David Ball says:

    Lance, I applaud your efforts. What do you think about the disappearance of observing stations? As a person who is involved in data collection, does it not trouble you that there are far fewer stations ?

  127. Corey says:

    Dr. Keen,

    I found this site http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?co1681
    and they only have Coal Creek going back 15 years. And for anything past July 2009, it is provisional. How long until they make the information past July official? And do you know why they only go back 15 years on this site?

  128. Steve Keohane says:

    Deadman (04:42:01) : A general question: is anyone collating the averages of temperatures across the whole of a day? I have wondered what would give a truer depiction of temperature than (min+max)/2. Considering the most extreme case at the solstices, a day with a 70° to 40° range would indicate quite different things at the opposing solstices were one to average each hourly measurement.
    Thank you for writing this Dr. Keen. Colorado has some of the best and most variant weather in the country, I love it. I came across an interesting UHI example recently. The Aspen Daily News ran a local piece declaring the temperature had risen 7°F from AWG. I retorted to the editor that was plain silly. Aspen is 1200′ higher than I am in elevation, and consistently reports temperatures higher than my location, when it should be 5-6°F cooler due to elevation. It is all cement, bricks and asphalt, not CO2.

  129. Gail Combs says:

    Bill in Vigo (20:30:32) :

    … if the loss already of crops to the bio-fuel craze and the restrictions on certain fertilizers including CO2. The most prudent investment might just still be firearms and ammunition. If you can grow your own you might have to fight to keep it. The governments getting ready for warming has possibly prepared us to have a catastrophe if the cooling continues at the current rate.

    By the way here in NE Alabama we are due to receive some of that white global warming later this week with near record low temps and possibly near record low high temps also. Also talking about record numbers of days below freezing temp with out break. the next couple of weeks will give most of us in the “deep south” about all the global warming we can stand.”

    Truer words were never spoken. I am getting sick of breaking the ice in my stock tanks. I just hope this kills the fire ants. Maybe it is time to dig up all those nests and let the bugs freeze.

    I understand a record number of guns were sold as soon as Obama took office and the stores have trouble keeping the ammo on the shelves. If Waxman has his way between the Cap and Trade bill and the Food Safety Enhancement Bill he will wipe out the US food supply with a double whammy. This is especially if we have a little Ice Age on to of the rest of the political insanity. I am sure Cargill and the rest of the grain traders are rubbing their hands with glee as they anticipate even more record earnings for 2010 and beyond.

    “Cargill seemingly escaped the economic downturn in 2008 by reporting sales of over 83 billion Euros and record profits of over 2.5 billion Euros, its sixth straight year of record-breaking earnings….

    “Cargill has gained control over huge swaths of the world’s agricultural system, and its ability to influence food prices is pushing millions of people around the world to the brink of starvation,” said Food & Water Europe Executive Director Wenonah Hauter.”

    Cargill is linked to human rights violations, including forced child labour… http://www.foodandwaterwatch.org/world/europe/press/cargill-poses-threat-to-consumer-health-the-environment-and-human-rights

    Cargill is the largest private corporation in the U.S. with over $71 billion in sales and is owned by the the Cargill-MacMillan families.

    I sure hope more Americans are comparing the weather outside to the idiotic claims of “warming” in the mass media and are finally waking up. The record hits here on Anthony’s site and all the new names in the comments give me hope.

  130. CAS says:

    I’m curious as to whether the obvious “tipping” or switch point is similar to what Alaska experienced, and is in line with the PDA oscillation switch point.

  131. Gail Combs says:

    An additional thought:

    As I sit here waiting for the temperature to get above freezing so I can refill my stock tanks, I wonder how many southern farmers and people living in trailers are having to deal with frozen waterlines and pipes? The building codes here in mid North Carolina do not require waterlines to be buried very deep 6 to 8 inches no more than a foot if I recall correctly. Farm waterlines are often no deeper than 3 or 4 inches and I have seen them freeze on the two farms where I helped with the livestock when the owners got trapped in a “freak” snow storm fifteen years or so ago.

    Frozen waterlines are a real wake up call that the temperatures are Ccccold.

  132. A C Osborn says:

    Does anyone know the most efficient way to make CO2?
    If it can warm up the atmosphere for us shouldn’t we be making it as fast as possible, 24 hours a day 7 days a week to get all the benifits it would bring?

  133. Ken Harvey says:

    Have a look at http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/no-conflict-between-big-freeze-and-climate-change-1858530.html

    Those of you in Canada and Alaska will be pleased to learn from Dr. Dorling of East Anglia University, that it is warmer than usual in your neck of the woods.

    Meanwhile on the sub tropical Natal coast, a month into what aught to be high summer, the light rain that began in early spring continues on a daily basis. A month after normal I have had no need to dig our giant fan out of the loft. Measured by nothing more sophisticated than my internal thermometer, this is the coolest spring and early summer by a long way, in the twenty years that I have lived in the same location.

  134. Dave F says:

    John Sims (17:27:29) :

    You could start by telling that person that if the Gulf Stream shut down, London would probably have roughly the same climate as Alaska. They are at the same latitude.

  135. Richard Keen says:

    >>hotrod (00:24:52) :
    The low correlation with ground truth is bothersome to me. Are you aware of any investigations into the possibility that they are seeing ground clutter temperatures rather than the lower troposphere air temperatures with the satellites ?
    Larry

    REPLY>>Larry, maybe Roy Spencer has some ideas on this!

    >>juanslayton (03:43:48) :
    Still suspicious of the apparent step change in temperature in ‘99 coinciding with the station location change. It the temp rise is an artifact of the location change, would a downward adjustment improve the correlation with MSU?
    …Also wondering about the sudden downward trend in 2004 coinciding with the change from min-max to MMTS measurement. Do these instrument changes generally agree without adjustment?

    REPLY>>Hi John, here’s some details of location, etc. There was no change of any sort in 1999; the entry in the MMS is merely administrative.
    SITE LOCATION: At the residence of Dr. Richard A. Keen, near the northwestern corner of Jefferson County, CO (T2S, R72W, Section 13), 105 23′ 27.6″ West, 39 52′ 36.2″ North (+/-0.4″), elevation 8950 feet. This location is approximately 10 miles SW of the Boulder WSO, and 11 miles NW of the Golden Post Office.
    The site is two miles SE of the summit of Mt. Thorodin (elevation 10451 feet), and the ground slopes gently down to the southeast. The ground near the thermometer site is grass-covered with scattered aspen trees, with a lodgepole pine forest immediately to the north and open meadow to the south. All observations are for the midnight-to-midnight (Mountain Standard Time) climatological day until October 1, 2005; then 9 p.m. (2100) MST thereafter.
    TEMPERATURE:
    July 1, 1984 – Nov. 21, 1994: Taylor Model 185 Six’s (U-shaped) max-min thermometer, 5 feet above the ground, enclosed in a homemade 15x17x19-inch louvered shelter
    Nov. 22, 1994 – Oct. 27, 2004: Standard NWS Thompson-mounted max-min thermometers, supplemented by Taylor Model 185 max-min thermometer (which is less susceptible to index shake-down by wind vibration), mounted 5 feet above the ground in a standard NWS cotton-region shelter thereafter. Nine months of overlapping data indicated the following differences between the NWS max-mins in the cotton-region shelter and the previous Taylor thermometer in the homemade system: average max 1.0 degree warmer (NWS minus Taylor); average min little difference.
    Oct. 28, 2004 – present: NWS MMTS system 7 feet west of the cotton-region shelter, 6 feet above the ground. Three years of overlapping observations indicate a difference (MMTS minus cotton region max-min) of +1F for the max, 0F for the min.

    From all this, an adjustment of -0.5F from the listed averages for 1994 to 2004 can be justified. What you see here is the unadjusted temperatures; the adjusted series doesn’t look much different, since the 0.5F difference is small compared to the interannual changes. The 2004 cooling occurred while the NWS max-mins in the cotton-region shelter were still recording.

    >>Corey (07:19:30) :
    Dr. Keen,
    I found this site http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?co1681
    and they only have Coal Creek going back 15 years. And for anything past July 2009, it is provisional. How long until they make the information past July official? And do you know why they only go back 15 years on this site?

    REPLY>>I became a designated co-op site in 1994, so that’s when NCDC began archiving my data. I’ve offered the earlier data, but NCDC doesn’t retroactively add data. I have one missing month (August 2000, I think) due to a misplaced B-91, and they won’t even fill that month into the record (I do have the full record for that month)! It seems to take 6 to 8 months for the monthly record to get to NCDC, get checked & verified, and published in the CD monthly.

  136. Richard Keen says:

    Ooops, correction to my previous post about the Coal Creek site:
    Oct. 28, 2004 – present: NWS MMTS system 7 feet west of the cotton-region shelter, 6 feet above the ground. Three years of overlapping observations indicate a difference (MMTS minus cotton region max-min) of -1F (NOT +1F) for the max, 0F for the min.

  137. juanslayton says:

    Dr. Keen:
    Got it. And thanks for your time.
    John

  138. Here in Boulder, CO ~ 10 miles north of Coal Creek we have not had any Chinook winds this winter! El Nino?
    A previous poster mentioned their wild effect on the winter averages:
    “Massive temperature differences can occur near the front range due to chinook winds here in Denver with the western metro area 20-30 degrees warmer than the official reporting sites on the eastern edge of the Denver area, and this might account for that high variability.”

    Do we need these winds for their averaging modulation of the winter experience?
    - Sometimes 120 mph roof rippers.

  139. tokyoboy says:

    How can I print the animated graph as two separate graphs with and without “the decline” ?

  140. Bulldust says:

    pat (17:35:01) :
    The Australian often has a comment form at the bottom of its stories and does not post any responses. It is quite frustrating. This time they removed the comment form after the story had been up for a while.

    I posted a terse comment regarding the politicisation of the BoM. I pointed out that a simple eye-balling of the rainfall graph clearly showed that 2009 was an above-average rainfall year when viewing the entire data set, rather than a cherry-picked period. I suggested that therefore the title of that section should have read:

    “2009 was an above average year for rainfall in Australia”

    Needless to say nothing was posted. I told the BoM to stick to science and stay away from politics. But being an Australian (State) Government employee myself I know this is impossible. If our department is anything to go by, the top teirs of Australian Government departments are very politicised.

    This is a sad thing indeed, but at least I have sensible buffers between myself and the “bulldust” from above.

  141. Richard Keen says:

    >>Joe O’Laughlin (15:04:23) :
    Here in Boulder, CO ~ 10 miles north of Coal Creek we have not had any Chinook winds this winter! El Nino?

    REPLY>>
    Hi Joe, well, we’ve had wind, but not the nice warm snow-eating Chinooks! Usually el Nino causes a split jet, with the southern subtropical jet dominating to dump snow on California, Texas, and freeze Florida, all of which has happened. But the higher latitudes, like North Dakota and new England, sit high and dry. But the cold PDO seems to have overridden that, and is bringing lots of nice chillies into the norther U.S. Joe d’Aleo on ICECAP.us has some nice articles about this.

    >>tokyoboy (21:19:06) :
    How can I print the animated graph as two separate graphs with and without “the decline” ?

    REPLY>>Go to http://www.icecap.us and find this same article. Joe wasn’t able to get the animation to open on his site, so he posted the two charts separately.
    Enjoy!

  142. tokyoboy says:

    Thanks Richard.

  143. dave decker says:

    Hi, you say in your article that the station record is 27 years. The NWSLI for CCCC2 says the paperwork for the station was submitted 5/13/1994. I was wondering where the data for the other years are taken from? Thanks.

  144. waterfriend says:

    The density of water at zero degrees centigrade is 0.9999 grams per cm. The density of ice at zero degree centigrade is 0.9150. In other words, 1 cc of ice weights only 0.91 gm and hence will displace only 0.915cc of water, when the ice is floating in water. When the ice float, almost the whole of body sinks below the surface of water, expect a small portion projecting above the surface. In the North Pole area, there is no land. The crust of the earth forms a huge bowl filled with seawater and a huge mass of ice floating in it just like an ice cube placed in a bowl of water. The volume of ice submerged below the ice may be almost 9 times more than the icecap which we observe above the surface of water. The molecules covering the underwater portion of the icecap absorb heat from the sea water in which it floats and melt into water. This is a continuous process happening round the clock, allover the year, irrespective of summer or winter. As I have explained in my booklet, the necessary energy is supplied by the earth itself. The role of the Sun which shines only for a limited period is too insignificant to have any impact on this process. As the density of water is more than that of ice, the volume of water generated by the melting of ice is less than that of water originally occupied by the ice block in the ratio 9999:9150. Therefore the sea level will actually come down because of the melting process. In practice, this may not happen because of the continuous deposition of snow in the polar region which will continuously push down the ice cap.

    A lot has been talked about the rising of sea level because of Global warming. This is a misconception. In some places, the sea level goes up and in other places, it recedes. This phenomenon has been extensively discussed in Milner’s geography.

    My contention can be tested by a simple experiment. Place ice cubes in a tumbler and fill it with water until the water overflows. Leave it until all the ice melts. Watch for any overflow of water during this process.

    For my booklet GLOBAL WARMING IS A MYTH contact-waterfriendkks@gmail.com

  145. jeez says:

    waterfriend:

    While posts like yours are allowed, they do little to enhance the stature of this site. You neglect the concept of thermal expansion as well as the water currently landlocked in Greenland and Antarctica. Now I don’t believe we are in for any big sea level rise, but fourth grade science explanations such as yours really do not belong here.

  146. Henry Pool says:

    With names like jeez and waterfriend: would anyone believe what you people are saying? Give us your real names and if possible, add Ms. Mr., Dr. Prof etc. so we know how to evaluate your remarks.
    The point made here was that there is again a tipping point observed where we can see that it is going to get colder. This happens to coincide with the tipping point observed on earth’s albedo – round at about the same time we noticed an increase in albedo. It means that we could well be on the way to global cooling – this is a real possibility and has many precedents in the past. Watch this space: global cooling is coming. It is real and it is not a hoax (like all this CO2 and carbon footprint nonsense)

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