From Spaceweather.com
The sun is showing signs of life. There are no fewer than five active regions on the sun’s surface, shown here in an extreme ultraviolet photo taken this morning by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO):
Each circle contains a sunspot or proto-sunspot belonging to new Solar Cycle 24. After two years of record-low sunspot numbers and many month-long stretches of utter quiet, this is a notable outbreak. Whether it heralds a genuine trend or merely marks a temporary, statistical uptick in activity remains to be seen.
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I really hope the sun is waking up. It’s been getting too cold for my liking. Snow staying on the ground for a week before christmas hasn’t been seen where I live for decades.
This news is probably a big relief for the AGW warmists, though they’ll never admit it.
But looking at the latest image, there is not really much to see.
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/mdi_igr/512/
Now how is the magnetic fieldstrength. Is the Livingston & Penn forecast broken now? Or are they still on track though more numerous?
It would be interesting to see what the magnetic intensity is of 1035 and it’s diminutive cousins. Is there an updated source for Livingston and Penn’s analysis work?
Ahh a few friends showed up for the party
Lets do the solar dance.
Still looks like specs to me..
“Whether it heralds a genuine trend or merely marks a temporary, statistical uptick in activity remains to be seen.”
Indeed, but you have admit it is quite spectacular after such a long pause.
Despite the emergence of all these regions (1037 = non-existent), and the severe over-inflation of sunspot number (42 for 22 Dec)… Solar Wind is still weak, as is the K-Index.
You may recall on 17 December, spaceweather.com reported this:
“The recently invisible spot is now nine times wider than Earth and crackling with C-class solar flares. A series of eruptions on Dec. 16th sent two and perhaps three coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the general direction of our planet. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras when the clouds arrive beginning on Dec. 18th or 19th.”
Well, those dates passed and nothing happened. 18th, 19th, 20th passed with no reports of increased auroras. Perhaps the flare dissipated along the way.. O_o
The L&P Umbral Data Graphic has been updated and up until now the readings are falling right where they should be.
1035 did not break the trend as some thought it would.
A number of months ago, I posted this graph predicting an upturn in solar activity at the end of 2009 and giving a predicted rise of solar magnetic activity through to a peak in late 2016.
http://www.tallbloke.net/ap-prediction.GIF
The Yellow curve is generated from a combination of changes in Length of Day and Sunspot numbers.
Hathaway should be happy- moving the goalposts can be exhausting.
Judging from the latest STEREO image we are due for another quiet spell, though there may be something coming in the Southern Hemisphere.
We will have to see if it turns out to actually be a “spot” or not.
Again another uptick in sunspots attending a meteor shower event (perseid, taurids, and gemini). Tests should be performed on the remants of the recent meteor shower to determine their exposure to cosmic rays so that scientists can make comparisons to changes with the cosmic ray flux.
Definite increase in activity, but the NOAA count of 43 is very ambitious and will be pulled back by SIDC and further restrained by the Layman’s Count. We are finally on the upswing of a grand minimum cycle that has a long way to go before reaching a smoothed monthly count of 50.
We have missed 3 days of this action because of a SOHO outage, this is the first time the Layman’s count will need to use GONG images for the final assessment. 1035 is the only major group and the darkness ratio (similar to L&P contrast) comes in at 73% which is equal highest for SC24, with 1029 providing the same reading. Overall trend for SC24 darkness is probably on the up.
http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50
Where is Leif Svalgaard? We need to have this explained
tallbloke (23:52:09) :
I really hope the sun is waking up. It’s been getting too cold for my liking. Snow staying on the ground for a week before christmas hasn’t been seen where I live for decades.
I agree. I am resigned to this being the beginning of a Solar Grand Minimum but I was fearful it was starting to look like a Maunder. A Dalton type minimum would be quite enough. With the chaos of the last week can you imagine if the Thames froze over again? I was in the blob of -45C (-58C wind chill) early on December 13th … and this is a weak El Nino and I am just across the Rockies from the Pacific? … is there a chant to cheer on the Sun?
Where’s that graph – the one that keeps moving the cycle end-line? That’s really funny. Anyone got a link?
There we go, prepare for global warming. they`ll still blame co2 though lmao
@ur momisugly Barry Foster:
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/sunspot.gif
Is that the graph to which you were referring? They have now gotten rid of the second red prediction line.
John M Reynolds
I have a theory there is a bit of a lag phase. Just because the sun is getting a bit active now doesn’t mean we aren’t in for a bit of cooling.
Polar fields are still stuck in the grove, no sign of turning.
http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/Polar.gif
That bastard Sol I always liked him as a fit for Global warming..
He is why our faces are shaped this way. Every land animal has a face designed not to look at the cunning conniving sciver.
Tell all Global Leaders we have tracked down the Global warming Malefactor, we looked up at the sky.
Now all we need, is a trillion dollar grant and some of them subsidy things we promises to build rockets ships and then Lassoo, that cunning thing and tame him.
Stuff this roping or harpooning CO2 molecules.
We will have a crack at heliocentric centre.
On a serious not, tho there might be some correlations to be found.
If there’s concerns sunspot numbers are being set too high, do we get a new sunspot skeptic blog called sunspotAudit ? Watch out or the realClimate lot will get there first!
vukcevic (02:12:52) :
Polar fields are still stuck in the grove, no sign of turning.
http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/Polar.gif
Right on Vuk, I have been watching the same graph for 18 months and still no sign of a turn. Does this current cycle display the chance of not following the normal Hale cycle like some proxy records from the Maunder suggest?
meemoe_uk (02:41:14) :
do we get a new sunspot skeptic blog called sunspotAudit ?
The Layman’s Count already has that covered.
For those who can access the BBC’s iPlayer – here’s a link to a programme about a ‘Decade of Global Warming’ – some good stuff, no mention of hockey stick.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/console/b00pcd3z