David Archibald forwarded me this PowerPoint presentation from Jan Janssens which he presented on October 22nd. It has some very interesting slides and is a good summary of the current debate over solar cycle 24.
I’ve put the entire slide show online in the post below at 50% size, as the PDF download of the PowerPoint document is quite large. For those that want it, you’ll find it at the end of the post mirrored on WUWT’s file system so that better bandwidth can help out.
The PDF of the PowerPoint (with full sized graphs) is available here
Warning, large file 5.6MB
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While the slides are good, it would help out a great deal if words describing the slides could be provided in text or mp3 format. I don’t understand what some of the slides are showing and would like to know more.
So we’re still in the foreplay mode, right? Well, that’s okay. The next few months should be interesting. Especially if it goes the way the author expects. That would drive Gore, et al, completely bonkers – oh wait. He’s already there.
Is there any text discussion that is supposed to go with this presentation, and make sense of these slides and put them in context? The power point is just a collection of random graphics with no context. For someone not deeply involved in solar cycle watching, a lot of those charts have very little meaning without some discussion of what they are showing and why it is important.
If Jan Janssen does not have such a text presentation to go with the slides perhaps one of our more experienced sun watchers could elaborate on what the charts show.
For example in the second page graphic the bottom of the image has a bar chart (or what appears to look like a bar chart) but I have no clue what it is trying to communicate. It was probably explained in a verbal presentation but without that elaboration it is just a visual noise to me.
Larry
I only really come here for discussions on mermaids.
But if I was of the gloom and doom, henny Penny and the sky is burning set I would call this bad news for their hysteria and hysterical destroy the economy to save the penguin children of planet no make that the universe. Children are children everywhere no matter how many tentacles or flippers.
But as a skeptic looking at science, I would ask the question where is the global response at a possible scenario more significant statistically of a cooling planet, to states that have seemed to occur from time to time.
World food production stalling and energy supplies crumbling thru inefficient bureacratic dismemeberment.
Much as I would like to stick a cooling scenario into the climate terrorists, a cooling planet means a lot of dead people, children and the elderly and those at the bottom rungs.
I concur with the need for some text. Some of the slides simply cannot be used without explanatory text. As a prime example, slide numbered 5. No legend. No labeling of X or Y axes. No context.
Slide 11 could use some over lay text with arrows to point to SC23 (presumably the red dot) and the two circled blue dots (presumably SC15 and SC 17) and also provide the dates for SC15 & SC17 (when presenting for a lay audience).
That said — obviously this presentation was made to be talked to, and not for a lay audience — overall I think it looks quite good!
Capn Jack Walker (11:29:01) :
“Much as I would like to stick a cooling scenario into the climate terrorists, a cooling planet means a lot of dead people, children and the elderly and those at the bottom rungs.”
Fear cold,warm no.History shows this but it seems few listen.
Split atoms,not Birds…
Many of these images have been shown before, but with the corresponding narration would form a nice summary for someone who hasn’t encountered the story in such detail. Of course, that’s just what the live presentation was for… until the last part, where it gets into detail of the study evidence.
Capn Jack Walker (11:29:01) : “I only really come here for discussions on mermaids.”
Arrrr! And instead, we show you yards and yards of fishy science.
That’s the problem with models and clusters of models… they all depend on the assumptions of the models.
Haven’t we gone through this issue with multiple models of “climate change” being used as “proof”? Models are guesses when they can’t be exactly backfit to history.
The longer the cycle, the less backfit.
Jan Janssen has a pretty nifty web page regarding spotless days. It might prove worthwhile to go check it out:
http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spotless/Spotless.html
While it might not explain most of the graphs in the presentation, it does whet the appetite.
Looks suspiciously like the modern maxima is about the biggest amplitude we have ever been able to measure. Sure glad it has ended, and with it comes the snows to rian on Al Gore’s hoax.
Sure does show the problem with trying to predict when we have so little data.
I agree, a video of the slides being presented and the spoken words would be a huge benefit.
Banzai mode
Roll up Roll up ! It’s the Solar-cycle Sunspot Seeking Speculation Special !
Will there be…
More than 60 sunspots per month at solar maximum…?
Less than 60 sunspots per month at solar maximum…?
No sunspots at all…?
PLACE BETS NOW !
/Banzai mode
Very interesting… and challenging to comprehend… lots of technical buzz words that need to perculate through my brain and be illuminated by The Googler… good thing it’s been Sesame Street week at the Googler… maybe Grover can help me out… a video of the presentation to learn more about it from Jan Janssen himself (in English if possible) would be awesome!
Oh, his web site is pretty good. It will take time to digest just like a full thanksgiving turkey dinner does. Yum. [:)]
Some of these charts, with explanations can be found at http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spotless/Spotless.html .
Now, I have a question about the last sunspot. It had reverse polarity, so, was it a late SC23( to high in latitude), an early SC25, or just a badly confused SC24 spot?
So when are our politicians going to take serious note of what is happening with the sun? As the are hiking up our energy and water prices as a response to global warming whilst the world cools then what of those who cant afford to eat or heat?
http://www.twawki.wordpress.com
I like the presentation because it presents “an open mind approach” towards the different theories. Thanks for posting this.
The essence of the message (consensus) to the general public and our Governments is the conclusion that if the current minimum lasts up to Juli 2010 (less than 8 months from now) we will be in Dalton like territory and if it persists for a longer period of a few more years, we will be in Maunder Minimum like territory.
This is a bomb under the AGW consensus and it should be pushed.
We should make preparations for either scenario.
Well, Cap’n Jack.
The answer, tis a simple one!
CO2 can be blamed for warming, we emit a lot of it during our activities, thus it’s a taxable commodity.
When global temps take a nose-dive, something we’re emitting can’t be blamed, thus no additional revenue to be blown on useless beaurocrats.
Admitting such, by preparing for what we’re going to do when things get a touch chilly, would be tantamount to admitting that any taxes on CO2 are simply revenue-raising schemes.
So, no preparations can be made.
An interesting question of what a “Dalton Scenario” might mean is raised in the historical context of the arctic warming which took place around 1815-1820. Large amounts of ice melted off Greenland and ships attempted the northwest passage. Could it be that cold visited on the temperate latitudes while the arctic warmed?
From ‘the Age of Wonder’ by Richard Holmes
“From further afield there came reports of climate change: huge sheets of thawing pack ice were sighted off Greenland, melting snowcaps seen in Alpine mountains, and unprecedented river spates and flooding were recorded throughout Europe. Banks (President of Royal Society) was not disposed to panic at these strange phenomena.’ Some of us flatter ourselves that our Climate will be improved and may be restored to its ancient state, when grapes ripened in Vineyards here’” [p383]
Then, polar explorer William Parry recorded a latter meeting with Banks before attempting the North West Passage: “…he opened the map which he had just constructed and in which the situation is shown, of that enormous mass of ice which has lately disappeared from the Eastern coast of Greenland…” [p395]
The first was in 1815, the second in 1819
H.T. to disremembered WUWT reader.
I am waiting for some fool to say it is anthropogenic and we should all feel guilty. Then the media will pick it up and demand action. Here in Australian we have had very severe fires in Victoria. The reason? Well some members of the state goverment worship satan and so they caused the fires. Obvious really! Perhaps a SCM could be developed to prove our guilt.
The Frost Spirit
HE comes, – he comes, – the Frost Spirit comes!
You may trace his footsteps now
On the naked woods and the blasted fields
And the brown hill’s withered brow.
He has smitten the leaves of the gray old trees
Where their pleasant green came forth,
And the winds, which follow wherever he goes,
Have shaken them down to earth.
He comes, – he comes, – the Frost Spirit comes!
From the frozen Labrador,
From the icy bridge of the northern seas,
Which the white bear wanders o’er,
Where the fisherman’s sail is stiff with ice,
And the luckless forms below
In the sunless cold of the lingering night
Into marble statues grow!
He comes, – he comes, – the Frost Spirit comes!
On the rushing Northern blast,
And the dark Norwegian pines have bowed
As his fearful breath went past.
With an unscorched wing he has hurried on,
Where the fires of Hecla glow
On the darkly beautiful sky above
And the ancient ice below.
He comes, – he comes, – the Frost Spirit comes!
And the quiet lake shall feel
The torpid touch of his glazing breath,
And ring to the skater’s heel;
And the streams which danced on the broken rocks,
Or sang to the leaning grass,
Shall bow again to their winter chain,
And in mournful silence pass.
He comes, – he comes, – the Frost Spirit comes!
Let us meet him as we may,
And turn with the light of the parlor-fire
His evil power away;
And gather closer the circle ’round,
When the firelight dances high,
And laugh at the shriek of the baffled Fiend
As his sounding wing goes by!
John Greenleaf Whittier
Livingstone experiment has number of uncertainties about it, but if all magnetic events are controlled by a single driver, then this graph showing the gradual decay in intensity of the Polar fields, leads to the same conclusion.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LP-project1.gif
@tallbloke (12:43:07) :
“More than 60 sunspots per month at solar maximum ?
Less than 60 sunspots per month at solar maximum ?
No sunspots at all ?”
Bonzai Mode
While I’m not a betting man, I will make a prediction that solar max will be lower than a SSN of 55. I don’t see SC24 peaking either. I make a bold prediction that SC24 will be ‘flat topped'(having no peak). You think minimum this go around is hard to determine, wait until SC24’s SSN hovers between 45-55 for 6 to 8 months. Won’t that be a doozie. Toss in some nice spotless days during that time and voila, you got spectacular written all over it.
/Bonzai
He doesn’t say anything about the correlation between solar cycle length and global temperature anomalies.
For the millions of warm years immediately before glaciation started, there were fifty species of great apes. The cold killed off all but us, the chimps, the gorillas, and the orangutan.
Btw, John Greenleaf Whittier was born at the beginning of the Dalton Minimum (December 17, 1807 – September 7, 1892)