Here is the current SST map:
From NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center:
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
10 September 2009
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
Synopsis: El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-2010. A weak El Niño continued during August 2009, as sea surface temperature (SST) remained above-average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1).
Consistent with this warmth, the latest weekly values of the Niño-region SST indices were between +0.7°C to +1.0°C (Fig. 2).
![Figure 2. Time series of area-averaged sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (°C) in the Niño regions [Niño-1+2 (0°-10°S, 90°W-80°W), Niño 3 (5°N-5°S, 150°W-90°W), Niño-3.4 (5°N-5°S, 170°W- 120°W), Niño-4 (150ºW-160ºE and 5ºN-5ºS)]. SST anomalies are departures from the 1971-2000 base period weekly means (Xue et al. 2003, J. Climate, 16, 1601-1612).](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/09/noaa_enso_fig2.png?quality=75 "NOAA_Enso_fig2")
Subsurface oceanic heat content (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) anomalies continued to reflect a
deep layer of anomalous warmth between the ocean surface and the thermocline, particularly in the
central Pacific (Fig. 4).
Enhanced convection over the western and central Pacific abated during the month, but the pattern of suppressed convection strengthened over Indonesia. Low-level westerly wind anomalies continued to become better established over parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect an ongoing weak El Niño.
A majority of the model forecasts for the Niño-3.4 SST index (Fig. 5) suggest El Niño will reach at least moderate strength during the Northern Hemisphere fall (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of +1.0°C or greater). Many model forecasts even suggest a strong El Niño (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index in excess of +1.5°C) during the fall and winter, but current observations and trends indicate that El Niño will most likely peak at moderate strength. Therefore, current conditions, trends, and model forecasts favor the
continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Niño into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2009, with the likelihood of at least a moderate strength El Niño during the winter 2009-10.
Expected El Niño impacts during September-November 2009 include enhanced precipitation over the west-central tropical Pacific Ocean and the continuation of drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia. Temperature and precipitation impacts over the United States are typically weak during the Northern Hemisphere summer and early fall, generally strengthening during the late fall and winter. El Niño can help to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing the vertical wind shear over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean (see the Aug. 6th update of the NOAA Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Outlook ).
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC’s Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 October 2009. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.ensoupdate@noaa.gov
(source: PDF)
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What’s interesting is that according to Unisys, while El Nino’s still going, the SST’s appear to be dropping more than rising
Compare
http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-090830.gif
To
http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-090830.gif
Still either not too much difference or cooler than what’s shown at this date
http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-090628.gif
Could it be the ocean is releasing tons of heat through this El Nino thus resulting in cooler SST’s?
OT
North East Passage in BBC website
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8251914.stm
If that is true then it’s going to be a big snow/rain year for the Pacific Northwest.
California has been crying their eyes out, screaming Droughtal Warming.
Now the can have thier Delugal Warming and eat it, too.
in 1983, Donner Summit had 880 inches of snowfall.
That’s 73 feet. We could look up from Sierra City on the ridge to the South in May and see old-growth Cedar trees with the snow behind them drifted up 2/3 the way to the top of the trees.
Somewhere’s about 120 feet.
Be careful what you ElNinol Warming Dream for.
From 130E to 80W, from 5N to 5S is a truly vast amount of ocean. Just how many depth samples make up the dataset??
Warm oceans & cold air. Buy snow blower stock.
Looks like a difficult wheat harvest in Australia next year. I think I will buy some wheat futures, if the spot price will go down to ca. 4$/bushel
So if this is the case, will the rational experts predict the broadly expected effect of this on:
1. Arctic Sea Ice Extent – any influence? Because Mark Serreze will be jumping on that like nobody’s business.
2. ‘Global Temperature’ – what’s the expected effect on temperature in the next 18 months? Because warmists will be rubbing their hands with glee expecting it to be going up but blaming it on ‘global warming’….
3. Hurricanes? We’ve all seen the data which says no more hurricanes over the past 100 years, although recently apparently tornadoes in-land may have gone up……any likeliood of increases? Because they’ll be blaming it on us, not El Nino…..
4. Floods? California? Peru??
5. Droughts in Australia? In Brazil??
What else?
Flag it ALL up using reasoned best-estimates.
So that it’s subtracted from natural variability in the quest to find human signatures……
By the way: did Landscheidt predict this el Nino before he died?? Might be interesting to revisit his predictions and see if he’s a visionary or just another person who got it right sometimes and wrong somtimes…….
Sandy: You asked, “Just how many depth samples make up the dataset??”
The basis for an answer to your question is available at the bottom of this webpage:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml
They write, “Analysis is based on NOAA/PMEL TAO buoy data, TOPEX/POSEIDON sea-level data and ships of opportunity.”
The TAO buoy website is here:
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/
The TOPEX/POSEIDON sea level website is here:
http://ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/hist/tp_products/topex.html
I believe the answer would then be there are 60+ buoys in the tropical Pacific that are supplemented with satellite altimetry and ship-based data.
Not all the runs are the same. There are dynamical models and statistical models. The dynamical models are experimental and are being compared to the tried and true statistical models (so says NOAA). Note that the statistical models are nearly ALWAYS predicting less El Nino strength than the dynamical models are. I have often wondered why that is the case and NOAA does not do a good job of explaining what is in the dynamical models that says “hotter”. I have a hunch that they have included a CO2 affect.
I said it on this site a while ago and I’ll say it again. The low solar activity has caused the oceans to go into heat release mode. The long minimum has allowed momentum to build in the upward movement of heat/energy stored in the oceans during the long run of high amplitude, short minimum cycles of the latter half of the C20th.
This is resulting in heat/energy leaving the oceans all over the globe, and it will continue for a good while while the sun is quiet. The result will be a sustained but moderate el nino modoki extending through the winter, as I predicted some months ago. But when it dies down, the reduced ocean heat/energy content will result in sea surface temperatures lower than jan 2007 in 12-16 months time.
Enjoy the warmth while it lasts, and get some food planted next spring. Tough times lie further ahead.
That is not a building El Nino.I say that it;s snowblower time too.
1969and 1972 were Nino years and quite Nasty…
Buoy pic here:
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/images/stdatl.gif
buoy grid here
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/disdel/disdel.html
15 longitude on the equator is 900 nautical miles or ~ 1000 miles so the lines are 660 – 1000 miles apart.
Satellite and ship don’t contribute to depth data so we just have the buoy grid.
What do the stats guys say? Is it a representative sample?
tallbloke (13:50:54) :
I believe your thinking is quite clear.
When enough heat is released, it’s El Dumpo time.
Stuck/Stubborn weather patterns have been in place for over 2 years now.
The Sun’s not going anywhere with this cycle. Nothing to drive the system but the Oceanic heat.
John Edmondson (12:13:12) :
That articles lead-in is misleading, to say the least.
The CYA comes at the end, where they nonchalantly state that the Soviets used escort thier shipping through the NE passage with icebreakers, but ceased when money got tight.
The two merchants were escorted by Russian icebreakers, but the article is written to take adavantage of attention span, where the damage is done.
Global Warming takes precedence by virtue of taking the Lions shares of the article, not on it’s merit, which at the end looks like a big, fat zero.
If nobody takes Serreze on, he wins by default.
So DOES this portend a wetter winter for California? We had out first autumn storm front (weak) move through David this morning complete with gnarly low clouds, thunder an a few drops of rain. I didn’t see any lightening, but there must have been somewhere (although I saw lightening in Reno last month with no thunder). Hope there were no lightening-ignited fires in the foothills or Sierra.
(Oops, my fingers forgot that I’m David; the town is Davis)
Adam from Kansas (12:06:53) :
If you look at the scale, you’ll notice thesame temps apepars as green/yellow in Unisys while it appears oreange/red in NOAA.
Tallbloke
Ifr the oceans are losing energy and cooling, it should presumably mean they are now absorbing greater amounts of co2 and we might see the atmospheric concentration levels reduce.
tonyb
The forecasts are predicting a strengthening of El Nino conditions and there is considerable time left yet until the normal peak of the ENSO in December, but there is very little happening right now to strengthen the El Nino.
You can’t teach an old dog new tricks.
tallbloke (13:50:54) :
Enjoy the warmth while it lasts, and get some food planted next spring. Tough times lie further ahead
Bill Illis (15:33:24) :
there is very little happening right now to strengthen the El Nino
….PERIOD
Is there any explanation yet why this El Nino has not affected the Southern Oscillation Index, which is normaly a reliable indicator of El Nino? The current 90-day SOI is +1, whereas it normally goes down to -10 or lower under El Nino.
Tallbloke” right on its a negative feedback system me thinks makes sense.
Do they “correct” the buoys after their models?. “Buoyantstations.org” needed.
Shilevich Volcano in the Kamchatka just went blammo-not good for our winter and fall
in the North.See here:
http://scienceblogs.com/eruptions/
A joker just got put in the card game of AGW…