There’s a couple of indicators that at least for Arctic temperature, the numbers are headed south. First the weather plot from the drifting buoy that is connected with NOAA’s North Pole Cam:
After some very brief excursions above freezing, it is now averaging below freezing. See the raw weather data here. The temperatures from the buoy have been hitting -2°C regularly the past nineteen days.
Another indication is the north pole cam itself.
Note that there are no melt pools or leads visible. The tilt is a bit puzzling, but as the temperature did get above freezing briefly, it may be a harbinger of things to come from this peer reviewer NASA paper. The buoy has drifted with the sea ice and is now near 84.1N, but started at 89.648N, so presumably, temperatures at the actual North Pole would be colder than what is being measured and seen now.
And finally the third temperature indicator is from the Danish Meteorological Institute.
The blue 273.15K line is 0°C or freezing. Of course seawater freezes a bit below that, typically at -2°C according to the US Navy.
The DMI plotting model, seen here, comprises the “daily mean temperature and climate north of the 80th northern parallel, as a function of the day of year.” Note that this year, the temperature rise got off to a late start. However the drop below freezing appears to be headed along the normal bell curve.
While sea ice extent has not seen the depths of 2007 or 2008 numbers yet, it did take a small hit to extent numbers yesterday. Given the temperature situation, it may begin to take a turn in the next two weeks. Traditionally, we have about 20 days of melt season left from this point.
However, as Jeff Id noted in his sea ice video, the winds of the polar region seem to be more of a determining factor in extent than temperature, as much of the ice is being driven southward. Our NOAA North Pole Cam and its drift from 89.648N to 84.1N is an example of this movement.
The date of the turn is always interesting to speculate. I’m going to take a SWAG and suggest Sept 9th as the day Arctic sea ice extent bottoms out.
First week August
Previous:sorry September
Sept 14th
Sept 4th
Flat for the next period of 10days. Then slightly upward trend.
September 10th, 2:45PM, unless AlGore is in the S.Hemisphere in which case it would occur one day later.
This seems to be the most up to date (you can actually see the line changes within ~ 4 hours. Remember its 30% ice so appears lower than AMSR 15%
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
This is really interesting – the physical model is one of a rotating thermally inert sphere with a seasonal orientation cycle radiated by a distant heat source, and weather being constrained to the thin film of gas enveloping its surface.
Some of us would think that there might be something wrong with the basic assumptions.
I’ve been tracking the daily ice extent. AMSR-E keep changing the amount. Earlier in the day it was 5,740,625 now its 5,672,031.
Some interesting stats. Last year the first day there was an increase in ice over the previous day was on Sept 3, then 10th Sept and finally increase all the way from 18th Sept.
This year it happened on the 20th of August. But turned warm since then (or the wind turned)
Minimum date September 11th and 5,100,000 sq kms minimum extent
9/9 is way too early.
Too much heat south of 80N, where most of the melt is still taking place at still a high rate.
I think it’ll bottom out later than normal – 9/18. So far my prediction made 2 weeks ago appears to be holding up.
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=6734#comment-352624
I predicted at Jeffs Id site July 29 that we would end up a tick above 2008.
Those who recently predicted that 09 would finish above 05 can throw in the towel. That’s all but out of the question.
Blow ye winds jolly, oh
Blow ye winds folly.
You can’t blow the
Ice below Oh Seven, now.
================
The tilt isn’t too puzzling and much less dramatic than axis flipping. Simply put, with all the poor wandering and homeless polar bears about, one of them thought either:
1) the buoy looked delicious, or
2) the buoy look like a good back scratcher.
Tuesday 8th, just before tea-time….
September 8th is my two-penneth worth, it’s my 25th Wedding Anniversary! We can have a shilling on the side.
As for the tilt, I think it can be easily explained in referrence to your previous post about axial tilt. Clearly it is happening much faster than the experts previously thought! Either that or one of those big fluffy polar bears took a shine to it.
Anyway back to the bbq summer in blighty. O/T, but the Met Office are really scrapigng the barrel to get sun into the weather forecasts it would seem. Every presenter has done the same thing such that despite the dreadful weather, wet geet the positive reinforcement of “over here they’ve had a fare bit of sunshine” or words to that effect, pointing to a small dot on the map! Bless their little cotton socks:-)) Time for lunch!
“The buoy has drifted with the sea ice and is now near 84.1N, but started at 89.648N, so presumably, temperatures at the actual North Pole would be colder than what is being measured and seen now.”
So we really aren’t measuring the same place. Perhaps a variation of the “How not to measure temperature” series.
The Danish data is the most interesting. It clearly shows that whatever the cause of the melt is, it certainly isn’t because the air’s warm!
having been following these polar images for some time, in the weeks preceeding the tilt, there was significant melt ponding in the area. One rivulet was very close to the camera’s position. Likely, the melt water undermined one of the supports causing the camera to tilt. There have been times when it pointed at the support structure and was redirected???
Well, actually Tom, they do that. Measure temperature in places where temperature is not measured, or use distant stations to measure a local temperature.
How to leverage your anomalies: Make sure that your chosen measuring device is one that is drifting to warmer climes. That way you can claim abundant heat where none exists.
Russia needs to ramp up wheat production in Siberia, because that place is rapidly turning into a steaming swamp. Forget the NW passage, the NE passage will be ice free while N. Canada will grow an ice sheet faster than you can thaw Al Gore’s hush puppies.
As I pointed out last week in another topic, the DMI graph this year shows the shortest thaw season in the >80L Arctic since 1958.
And no, the Polar Bears don’t wear sunglasses and drink Pepsi to quench thier thirst in the scorching arid wastelands of the Arctic. Sublimininal message rejected as crass absurdity. Clueless Marketeers and their equally stupid commericals.
I predict Arctic ice is in a growing trend since 2007. I can’t miss on that.
Here’s another one hot from the BBC presses. ‘Stress’ is shrinking polar bears”
Yes – you’ve guessed it – it’s global warming again.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8214673.stm
The AMSR-E Sea Ice Extent graph underwent a quiet change last week. The red line (this year’s) used to dip down in July a bit, then straighten out quite markedly to cross over the orange line (last year’s). About 10 days ago this was suddenly revised to where the July dip is only half what it was, and the crossover less dramatic. Seemed like someone has his thumb on the scales. Unfortunately I did not keep copies of the old graphs to display.
I think that if NH ice returns to normal it will kill AGW. There simply will be no way for the warmistas to explain this one. I think the re-bound this year will surprise many (based on last years rebound) see here:
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_area.png
Wonder if the cam has been dislodged somehow. Shifting of the surface ice, maybe?