There’s a couple of indicators that at least for Arctic temperature, the numbers are headed south. First the weather plot from the drifting buoy that is connected with NOAA’s North Pole Cam:
After some very brief excursions above freezing, it is now averaging below freezing. See the raw weather data here. The temperatures from the buoy have been hitting -2°C regularly the past nineteen days.
Another indication is the north pole cam itself.
Note that there are no melt pools or leads visible. The tilt is a bit puzzling, but as the temperature did get above freezing briefly, it may be a harbinger of things to come from this peer reviewer NASA paper. The buoy has drifted with the sea ice and is now near 84.1N, but started at 89.648N, so presumably, temperatures at the actual North Pole would be colder than what is being measured and seen now.
And finally the third temperature indicator is from the Danish Meteorological Institute.
The blue 273.15K line is 0°C or freezing. Of course seawater freezes a bit below that, typically at -2°C according to the US Navy.
The DMI plotting model, seen here, comprises the “daily mean temperature and climate north of the 80th northern parallel, as a function of the day of year.” Note that this year, the temperature rise got off to a late start. However the drop below freezing appears to be headed along the normal bell curve.
While sea ice extent has not seen the depths of 2007 or 2008 numbers yet, it did take a small hit to extent numbers yesterday. Given the temperature situation, it may begin to take a turn in the next two weeks. Traditionally, we have about 20 days of melt season left from this point.
However, as Jeff Id noted in his sea ice video, the winds of the polar region seem to be more of a determining factor in extent than temperature, as much of the ice is being driven southward. Our NOAA North Pole Cam and its drift from 89.648N to 84.1N is an example of this movement.
The date of the turn is always interesting to speculate. I’m going to take a SWAG and suggest Sept 9th as the day Arctic sea ice extent bottoms out.
Re Steve Sadlov’s posting.
I know even less about hurricane behaviour than I do about most else on here but I know that the UK often gets the tail-end of these guys but I’ve never heard of one hitting us in August before.
Could be wrong, of course ….
Interesting publication at icecap.us:
Warming May have Peaked. Has Western Civilization Peaked with It?
By Joseph D’Aleo
The north pole temp. heading below freezing doesn’t mean much without context. What date does it usually do that? Does the NP temp have much to do with the temp farther south where the summer melt really happens?
Does today’s temp. at the north pole correlate with northern sea ice extent?
The wind in some places is driving ice south, but not out Fram Strait and not out the Bering Strait. So I still think no melt is happening. Ice compaction is.
The temperature is going South, along with the thermometer, it apparently :^)
crosspatch (08:12:29) : The tilt appears to be the camera flopping around on its mount.
Would that be a teraflop? Or a glaciflop? We should send in the
clownsCaitlin crew in kayaks to tighten the bolts.> Richard (03:32:53) :
> I’ve been tracking the daily ice extent. AMSR-E keep
> changing the amount. Earlier in the day it was 5,740,625
> now its 5,672,031.
IARC/JAXA issues an interim number each day around 0300 Z and a final number around 1400 Z. The 1400 Z number is used in the permanent record.
I’ll say September 6, 5.2 million sq kms
Pamela Gray (16:28:33) said:-
“The wind in some places is driving ice south, but not out Fram Strait and not out the Bering Strait. So I still think no melt is happening. Ice compaction is.”
With temperatures currently as they are and sea temps there must be some melt occuring.
Regards
Andy
The bottom out date… It should differ between ice extent and area. I guess ice can disintegrate, and flow away, at the same time as the ice area stops to shrinken and starts growing. But that’s just my hypothesis.
So Arctic Roos’ ice area may bottom out now or 1st September and the NSIDC reported ice extent then bottoms out a few weeks later. Or am I just proving I’m in the amateur zone? 😛
Arctic Roos, area bottom: 1 September
AMSR-E, extent bottom: 13 September
Bryan (12:31:40) :
“RE:
Tom Moriarty (11:01:24) :
This post starts with an image showing graphs of T, pressure and wind. The Y axis of the wind graph is labeled “wind (to, m/s).” Can somebody please explian how to interpret the wind direction on this graph?
Thanks,
Tom
I believe that the wind graph indicated both wind direction (relative to ? direction) and speed (meters per second) relative to the sensor. What I am uncertain of is if the direction is relative to the prime meridian or not or if the sensor can shift and rotate relative to the background as the Ice shifts and rotates.”
The length of the line is the windspeed. 12-o’clock is the Greenwich meridian, 6-o’clock is the international dateline, left is 90 deg (Americas) and right is 270 deg (Asia)
Better warn the Beluga Group flotilla sailors to put on their winter clothing.
The 3 ships are in the process of transferring 45 heavy lift modules they carried from South Korea to the Siberian Port of Novvy onto barges, before continuing on to Europe. One of the generator modules massed over 200 tons, another 44 were over 100 tons.
Summer time polar transits by merchant ships are becoming business as usual, although this is the first time foreign ships have had permission to sail these waters since WW II.
Whew, those cute little polar bears are safe! /sarc off
The only thing Ive heard about Polar ice and Bears this year was from the little scooners getting trapped. Apparently Polar Bears have come to beasty a couple of them while they were trapped in the ice.. hehe.
Steve W. (15:55:16) :
The north pole temp. heading below freezing doesn’t mean much without context. What date does it usually do that? Does the NP temp have much to do with the temp farther south where the summer melt really happens?
—
See the temperature graph – continuously updated – immediately below the WUWT sidebar each day. This year’s trend has been pretty continuously below the average temperatures at date for the past 40 some-odd years. Going below freezing ( 273 degrees K) at just about the same time it always has.
Be nice of that graphic allowed multiple years to be displayed. Now, only one at a time can be shown.
Also, since the “colder months” have such incredibly wide variations with the plotted “average” putting one deviation error bars on the “average” plot would show trends better.
RE: VG (07:52:19) :
Looking at the ICE AREA, NORSEX SSM/I link – as supplied by VG
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_area.png
I notice that two areas of rising interest i.e. return of ice to normal levels – namely early MAY and early AUGUST – each have “Unfiltered” data displayed – as if to say “but note: real data went lower”, whereas there seem to be no corresponding “but note: real data went higher” areas. Perhaps I don’t understand what “unfiltered” really means … is it just “un-integrated or unsmoothed data” ? If it is, why is it selectively shown ? Sorry if this has been resolved previously.
Grumbler (09:31:41) :
“Alan the Brit (04:59:47) :
September 8th is my two-penneth worth, it’s my 25th Wedding Anniversary! We can have a shilling on the side.”
Congratulations, 33 for me!
cheers David [the Brit]
I thank you, Sir, & congratulations to you too!
Will sea ice area be above or below long term average this year ? I can only assume it will be below average
So the little red ticker tape seems to be handily above the 2008 orange, but now south of the 2005 green; and basically on a ho-hum course to an eventual turning point.
Is there sitll time to get in on a north west passage junket ?
You have no idea how intriguing that pseudo sine wave plot is Anthony; almost as interesting as your collection of owl box pictures; but nothing could be as interesting as those.
George
It appears that some consider there
currently is too much undercounting of new
sea ice vs old sea ice–
http://solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=globalwarming&action=display&thread=346&page=96
The small rain pools that can be seen in front of and to the right of the “pole” buoy and wind generator are now freezing over again. Not much more than “ice puddles” really. But in any case they are freezing over and it looks like the surface is currently either skim ice or slush.
Ice melt appears to be slowing down or flattening out.
Though it is currently lower than all other years but 2007 and 2008
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.area.jpg
bryan (10:11:15) : “Though it is currently lower than all other years but 2007 and 2008”
Are you familiar with the calculus, maxima, minima and points of inflexion?
Regards
If this is what you are talking about,
http://books.google.com/books?id=hTVU2ngbhvYC&pg=PA102&lpg=PA102&dq=%22calculus,+maxima,+minima+and+points+of+inflexion%22&source=bl&ots=16_UE35OLc&sig=NKlgwrtFirjNyUfA9rqYIMh2H08&hl=en&ei=qd-WSruBHoeqtgP5punGDA&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1#v=onepage&q=&f=false
vaguely