From NSIDC sea ice news
During the first half of August, Arctic ice extent declined more slowly than during the same period in 2007 and 2008. The slower decline is primarily due to a recent atmospheric circulation pattern, which transported ice toward the Siberian coast and discouraged export of ice out of the Arctic Ocean. It is now unlikely that 2009 will see a record low extent, but the minimum summer ice extent will still be much lower than the 1979 to 2000 average.
Figure 2. The graph above shows daily sea ice extent as of August 17, 2009. The solid light blue line indicates 2009; the solid dark blue line shows 2008; the dashed green line shows 2007; and the solid gray line indicates average extent from 1979 to 2000. The gray area around the average line shows the two standard deviation range of the data. Sea Ice Index data.
Figure 1. Daily Arctic sea ice extent on August 17 was 6.26 million square kilometers (2.42 million square miles). The orange line shows the 1979 to 2000 median extent for that day. The black cross indicates the geographic North Pole. Sea Ice Index data. About the data. <!–Please note that our daily sea ice images, derived from microwave measurements, may show spurious pixels in areas where sea ice may not be present. These artifacts are generally caused by coastline effects, or less commonly by severe weather. Scientists use masks to minimize the number of “noise” pixels, based on long-term extent patterns. Noise is largely eliminated in the process of generating monthly averages, our standard measurement for analyzing interannual trends. Data derived from Sea Ice Index data set. –>
Note: This mid-monthly analysis update shows a single-day extent value for Figure 1, rather than the usual monthly average. While monthly average extent images are more accurate in understanding long-term changes, the daily images are helpful in monitoring sea ice conditions in near-real time.
Overview of conditions
On August 17, Arctic sea ice extent was 6.26 million square kilometers (2.42 million square miles). This is 960,000 square kilometers (370,000 square miles) more ice than for the same day in 2007, and 1.37 million square kilometers (530,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average. On August 8, the 2009 extent decreased below the 1979 to 2000 average minimum annual extent, with a month of melt still remaining.
Conditions in context
From August 1 to 17, Arctic sea ice extent declined at an average rate of 54,000 square kilometers (21,000 square miles) per day. This decline was slower than the same period in 2008, when it was 91,000 square kilometers (35,000 square miles) per day, and for the same period in 2007, when ice extent declined at a rate of 84,000 square kilometers (32,000 square miles) per day. The recent rate of ice loss has slowed considerably compared to most of July. Arctic sea ice extent is now greater than the same day in 2008.
AMSRE from JAXA shows similar extent conditions:
As does NANSEN:
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Odd how NSDIC isn’t trumpeting the consistently above average sea ice extent in Antarctica.
For a nice graphic from the University of Bremen: click [click on the image to expand].
If you look closely, you’ll see the ice extent increasing year-over-year for three years through June 2009.
It seems they have learned that their alarmism had gone too far last year (prediction of an ice-free North Pole by Mr. Serezze).
Have no fear! The Catlin Survey can be launched again to assure us that it’s “worse than we thought” regardless of what that silly graph shows. ;o)
(I think Ann and Martin might sit out another attempt, though. I can almost hear them now; “WHAT!?! Are you CRAZY!?!”)
Another weather is not climate item from us up here in the balmy North, at least the bears are getting a break!!! Summer 2009 is “a one-off” but clearly not like 1998???http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/090818/national/polar_bear_sea_ice
Has Hasen worked on those graphs? smile 😉
“The slower decline is primarily due to a recent atmospheric circulation pattern, which transported ice toward the Siberian coast and discouraged export of ice out of the Arctic Ocean.”
So it’s the direction the wind blows. What’s it got to do with global warming? Absolutely nothing unless they can use it to scare people.
Arctic ice has taken a clear and interesting turn—I don’t see the infamous ‘death spiral’.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
Do I hear Steven Goddard saying “May Day, May Day!” ?
p.s., anybody here seen our old friend Steven? Can you tell me where he’s gone?
REPLY: I took him to task over the post on the possibility of CO2 freezing solid at the South Pole. He left in a huff rather than own up to the mistake. So, he doesn’t guest post here anymore. – Anthony
I’ve got the sea ice extent at 640,000 km^2 below the 1979 to 2008 average as August 17th (it was as much as 1,000,000 km^2 a few weeks ago).
The current melt-rate trend would put the ice extent minimum at about 5.85M km^2 which would only be about 3.0% below normal and 1.6M above the 2007 minimum.
Here’s all the years back to 1979.
http://img29.imageshack.us/img29/3744/nhseiaug17.png
I appreciate the kilometer to miles conversions Anthony. Thank You!
p.s. this North Pole ice news can’t overshadow the Brett Favre signing with the Vikings news. 😉
REPLY: Thank NSIDC, it is their release that I’ve reposted. Who’s Brett Favre?- Anthony
GregS (15:54:32) :
“Odd how NSDIC isn’t trumpeting the consistently above average sea ice extent in Antarctica.”
NSIDC is clearly selectively presenting data in order to mislead the public. There is a page on NSIDC dedicated to Arctic Sea Ice News;
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
but there is no corresponding Antarctic Sea Ice News page;
http://nsidc.org/antarcticseaicenews
and you have to dig deep to find their Antarctic Sea Ice Extent chart;
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png
which shows Antarctic Sea Ice Extent trending significantly above average.
When discussing sea ice predictions, it is useful to visit the recent past to see how the “experts” have done…
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn13779
North Pole could be ice free in 2008
16:03 25 April 2008 by Catherine Brahic
You know when climate change is biting hard when instead of a vast expanse of snow the North Pole is a vast expanse of water. This year, for the first time, Arctic scientists are preparing for that possibility.
“The set-up for this summer is disturbing,” says Mark Serreze, of the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). A number of factors have this year led to most of the Arctic ice being thin and vulnerable as it enters its summer melting season.
—
http://in.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idINN3052467920080501
Arctic sea ice forecast: another record low in 2008
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Arctic sea ice, sometimes billed as Earth’s air conditioner for its moderating effects on world climate, will probably shrink to a record low level this year, scientists predicted on Wednesday.
—
And who can forget this … a mere 9 days ago!
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/08/09/tech/main5228298.shtml
Vast Expanses of Arctic Ice Melt in Summer
Scientists Watch for Possible Record Low of Polar Ice Cap
Aug. 9, 2009
(AP) The Arctic Ocean has given up tens of thousands more square miles of ice on Sunday in a relentless summer of melt, with scientists watching through satellite eyes for a possible record low polar ice cap.
…
As of Thursday, the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center reported, the polar ice cap extended over 2.61 million square miles after having shrunk an average 41,000 square miles a day in July – equivalent to one Indiana or three Belgiums daily.
The rate of melt was similar to that of July 2007, the year when the ice cap dwindled to a record low minimum extent of 1.7 million square miles in September.
…
In July, “we saw acceleration in loss of ice,” the U.S. center’s Walt Meier told The Associated Press. In recent days the pace has slowed, making a record-breaking final minimum “less likely but still possible,” he said.
The polar webcam photos for the last few days would seem to indicate that the freeze up is commencing now which would put it well ahead of 07 and 08, and in line with what occurred in 04. In comment I posted here back on 21 April suggesting that Anthony start a contest for best prediction of the summer minimum of AMSR-E ice extent I offered my own completely non-scientific estimate of 5,857,142 km2, which now appears to be just a hair high, but it’s looking like the number I pulled from my a**, will be closer than anything all those guys with their fancy computer models could generate back in April
There is nothing wrong with our ice caps and there is nothing wrong with our climate.
There is only this spiral of Government induced AGW insanity which has the potential to destroy our economy to the level of a third world banana republic.
http://factsnotfantasy.blogspot.com/2009/08/cap-and-trade-insanity.html
REPLY: I took him to task over the post on the possibility of CO2 freezing solid at the South Pole. He left in a huff rather than own up to the mistake. So he doesn’t guest post here anymore. – Anthony
Sorry to hear. Stuff happens. Maybe things can be reconciled some day….
p.s. I appreciate this blog. I am so happy it exists. I think a lot of other people are too.
p.s.s. I don’t know how you find so much time to be on top of things here, and moderate on top of that. Do you sleep?
REPLY: I have Robot undlerlords that only need recharging from a green outlet. – A
[Robot Reply: Our pay is electrons, which we can trade for pixels at the company store. ~dbs, mod.]
Just in case some of you are suspecting I may have exaggerated my prescience in my previous post, here is my comment from 21 April in it’s entirety
Dave Wendt (13:13:20) :
Anthony;
Given the spate of grim news on the political front of the AGW debate, I think it might be time for a bit of a diversion to introduce a little lightheartedness to the mood of your readers. I suggest a pool for the best prediction of the summer low of the AMSR-E sea ice extent. I’ve got dibs on 5.857142 mil. km2, a number I arrived at by strict adherence to all the rules of technique and methodology of the warmists playbook for climate estimation, i.e. I smoothly extracted a number from my anal orifice and then applied unjustified precision to make it look more “scientific”.
It would probably enhance the entertainment value if everyone kicked in a couple of bucks with their entries, but given the increasing number of times your name has appeared in pieces about opposition to the administration’s policies, there’s probably already an army of political operatives and liberal bureaucrats out there trying to do a Joe the Plumber rectal polyp count on you and you wouldn’t want to hand them the opportunity to nail you for running an illegal lottery.
“”” Gene Nemetz (16:47:43) :
I appreciate the kilometer to miles conversions Anthony. Thank You!
p.s. this North Pole ice news can’t overshadow the Brett Favre signing with the Vikings news. 😉
REPLY: Thank NSIDC, it is their release that I’ve reposted. Who’s Brett Favre?- Anthony “””
More importantly, if the arctic sea ice is slowly getting back to normal; what the hell are the Vikings preparing for; another go at Greenland ? I’d have thougth those heathens would be somewhat civilsed by now.
But why does NSDIC feel it is necessary to editorialize on the why. Can’t they be happy to jus tell us what the ice is, and leave it at that. What the ehck does it matter why the ice is where it is; next year it is bound to do something else.
So, when the extent is low it is because of global warming and not because of wind patterns, but when it doesn’t go low it is because of wind patterns and not because global warming isn’t the cause anyway?
Good heavens. A decently educated Joe Schmo, or in this case, Sue Schmu, could have easily predicted a slow melt (and she did too) at the beginning of the season just by following the jet stream pattern. The scientists at NSDIC make it sound like some complicated surprising phenomena that only they can figure out.
Brett is a football quarterback and occasional actor. He has outlived his football knees and needs to hang it up. He appeared in “Something About Mary” as himself and in “Ace Ventura, Pet Detective” as himself.
oops, that was Dan Marino who was in Ace Ventura.
I’m very pleased about this. I’ve been predicting since last fall we’d be looking at something very close to the 2005 line this year, and it is right on it at the moment. So I’m wearing the tight grin right now.
Tho I’m still conscious that “extent” essentially sucks as a metric, whoevers ox it is goring at the moment, and the nature of melting means extent can disappear in a hurry if volume (ie. extent times thickness) is low. So I’m not ready to rule out the possibility of a September crash in extent.
But I don’t really believe it. 🙂 Still a cool summer here in Minnesota. Feels more like Fall everyday.
And right now, if we don’t get that September crash, you’d have to say that the evidence suggests that so far as extent goes, 2nd year ice is just as good as multi-year ice generally.
The computer models predicted this right?
NOOOooooo?
By the way, I have said this before, but the ice up there is thicker than bees on honey! How do I know? Wind patterns shoved it together. In fact, if we were to measure the ice displacement before and after the melt season, I would bet the ranch that there was precious LITTLE melt this summer. The graph assumes the ice melted. I am thinkin a lot of it didn’t.