From NSIDC sea ice news
During the first half of August, Arctic ice extent declined more slowly than during the same period in 2007 and 2008. The slower decline is primarily due to a recent atmospheric circulation pattern, which transported ice toward the Siberian coast and discouraged export of ice out of the Arctic Ocean. It is now unlikely that 2009 will see a record low extent, but the minimum summer ice extent will still be much lower than the 1979 to 2000 average.
Figure 2. The graph above shows daily sea ice extent as of August 17, 2009. The solid light blue line indicates 2009; the solid dark blue line shows 2008; the dashed green line shows 2007; and the solid gray line indicates average extent from 1979 to 2000. The gray area around the average line shows the two standard deviation range of the data. Sea Ice Index data.
Figure 1. Daily Arctic sea ice extent on August 17 was 6.26 million square kilometers (2.42 million square miles). The orange line shows the 1979 to 2000 median extent for that day. The black cross indicates the geographic North Pole. Sea Ice Index data. About the data. <!–Please note that our daily sea ice images, derived from microwave measurements, may show spurious pixels in areas where sea ice may not be present. These artifacts are generally caused by coastline effects, or less commonly by severe weather. Scientists use masks to minimize the number of “noise” pixels, based on long-term extent patterns. Noise is largely eliminated in the process of generating monthly averages, our standard measurement for analyzing interannual trends. Data derived from Sea Ice Index data set. –>
Note: This mid-monthly analysis update shows a single-day extent value for Figure 1, rather than the usual monthly average. While monthly average extent images are more accurate in understanding long-term changes, the daily images are helpful in monitoring sea ice conditions in near-real time.
Overview of conditions
On August 17, Arctic sea ice extent was 6.26 million square kilometers (2.42 million square miles). This is 960,000 square kilometers (370,000 square miles) more ice than for the same day in 2007, and 1.37 million square kilometers (530,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average. On August 8, the 2009 extent decreased below the 1979 to 2000 average minimum annual extent, with a month of melt still remaining.
Conditions in context
From August 1 to 17, Arctic sea ice extent declined at an average rate of 54,000 square kilometers (21,000 square miles) per day. This decline was slower than the same period in 2008, when it was 91,000 square kilometers (35,000 square miles) per day, and for the same period in 2007, when ice extent declined at a rate of 84,000 square kilometers (32,000 square miles) per day. The recent rate of ice loss has slowed considerably compared to most of July. Arctic sea ice extent is now greater than the same day in 2008.
AMSRE from JAXA shows similar extent conditions:
As does NANSEN:
I was wondering why the ‘powers that be ‘ were essentially ignoring the Arctic this year. So sad, no disaster to predict.
Pamela Gray (17:40:37) :
Inclined to agree. The decline in extent was compacting due to winds. (rarely hear about winds with regard to melt though I have to admit it was mentioned as the reason for the record low.)
This year will start freeze with a lot of multi-year ice I think.
DaveE.
“REPLY: I took him to task over the post on the possibility of CO2 freezing solid at the South Pole. He left in a huff rather than own up to the mistake. So he doesn’t guest post here anymore. – Anthony”
I enjoyed Steves’ many and varied posts. The thread in question led to an excellent example of practical chemistry and I seem to remember other senior people from third party organizations were also incorrect.
It would be nice to see a reconciliation.
Tonyb
And I followed your lead Pamela, and have been fixated on the jet stream for months! I made a prediction of 5.8-6.0 a while back at CA and was ridiculed! I may still be wrong, but I have seen the jet stream light as far as northern polar ice is concerned. I’ll stake your reputation on it! 8-[)
BTW I used the same rigorous formula as Mr. Wendt in calculating the specific (?) number.
Marino, who?
“REPLY: I took him to task over the post on the possibility of CO2 freezing solid at the South Pole. He left in a huff rather than own up to the mistake. So he doesn’t guest post here anymore. – Anthony”
Too bad Michael Mann wasn’t taken to task for his ‘issues” in creating the first hockey stick.
The remarks were:
————–
Bill Marsh (17:44:22) :
I was wondering why the ‘powers that be ‘ were essentially ignoring the Arctic this year. So sad, no disaster to predict.
————–
Tut! Tut! Mustn’t be questioning your ‘betters’ in the ‘powers that be’ here!
.
Remember: Only ‘government scientists’ know what’s really happening. Everyone else just makes silly ‘guesses.’
If this info from NSIDC is published by any of the “MSM,” it might be a first. Predictions of record low sea ice extent get coverage, along with the usual AGW bit. Let’s see how this reversal plays in the MSM. Will the importance of wind patterns that can push the ice out of the Arctic and down into warmer waters get mentioned?
This is also interesting: Summer Sea Ice Good News for Hudson Bay Polar Bears http://ca.sys-con.com/node/1075364
It’s times like these I just have to ask the question:
Where’s Flanagan?
Regulars will understand.
Vikes could use a QB.
Arn Riewe (18:27:34) :
“It’s times like these I just have to ask the question:
Where’s Flanagan?”
Maybe he’s with Mark Serreze?
What does the 1979-2008 average look like? Why is the 1979-2000 average considered to be some kind of magical reference point, and who considers it to be so?
Off topic
Anthony and your great monitoring team, you don’t have to post this.
I want to make you aware.
‘WASHINGTON (AFP) – US labor unions and environmental groups on Tuesday announced plans for a nationwide campaign to boost support for legislation to promote “clean energy” and battle climate change.
The ‘Made In America’ Jobs Tour will open Thursday in Ohio — a critical political battleground in US presidential elections — and visit 50 sites in 22 US states, including other major toss-ups, the coalition said in a statement.
Leaders of the United Steelworkers, Service Employees International Union, Utility Workers Union of America were to join heads of major US environmental groups on a conference call Wednesday to formally launch the campaign.’
AFP on Yahoo ^
old construction worker (19:01:57) :
Now that sounds like Astroturf!
But what would I know. I’m just part of the ignorant mob.
Pamela Gray (17:40:37) :
“The graph assumes the ice melted. I am thinkin a lot of it didn’t.”
Pam, I worked at Eureka, NWT back in 1979, and we measured the ice on the fjiord (20 feet thick at the end of winter, yes, one winter freeze). During the summer, channelling melt did occur, but the biggest factor was indeed the wind. One day, big wind from the east and all that ice was pushed out into Eureka Sound. So yes indeed, it gets affected by the wind big time.
BTW, for those wondering about Flanagan, I did see a comment of his about the Mediterranean heat wave on the previous post about the French wine industry, so he is still around.
The press sometimes gets it partially right. Also both Northwest passages are still closed at last report. Expect several private venture yachts (or their crews) will have to be rescued in September.
Canadian NewsQuick read >
Sorry, feed cannot be read.Latest news:
Cold summer means thick sea ice, healthier Hudson Bay polar bears
at 16:26 on August 18, 2009, EDT.
Chinta Puxley, THE CANADIAN PRESS
WINNIPEG – A cold summer in many areas of the country may have meant fewer barbecues and camping trips this year, but lower temperatures have been a boon for the beleaguered Hudson Bay polar bears.
Experts say the summer sea ice has lasted longer than it has in years, which has given the region’s more than 1,000 bears extra time to hunt, feed and raise healthy cubs.
One scout captured a picture of a mother with three strapping youngsters – a rare sight that has heartened those who are fighting what they say is the probable extinction of the iconic mammal.
Andrew Derocher, a biology professor at the University of Alberta, said it’s good news in an area where the polar bear population has declined by 25 per cent. He’s been tracking some bears using satellite collars and said the extra time the animals have had on the ice can make all the difference.
“They’ve had longer to hunt which is a real benefit to them,” said Derocher, former chair of a polar bear specialist group run by the International Union for Conservation of Nature.
“It really makes a difference. Even just one or two weeks out on the sea ice can make a difference in how many seals they kill and how much fat they’re able to store on their bodies.”
Canada is home to about two-thirds of the world’s polar bears but scientists warn that populations are starting to dwindle because of thawing sea ice, over-hunting, industrial activity and increased toxins in the food chain.
While experts say this summer is an anomaly and doesn’t mean the mammals are no longer under threat, Derocher said it bodes well for the coming winter on Hudson Bay.
When the sea ice takes longer to break up in the summer, the water doesn’t warm up as much, he said. That usually means sea ice forms earlier in the fall, which gives polar bears more time to procreate and bulk up on fat for the following summer.
“A respite from the long-term conditions is certainly good news, but … this is still a major concern. We’re talking about global change here. This is just one summer.”
In other parts of the Arctic, temperatures continue to be warmer than usual, scientists point out.
Robert Buchanan, head of Polar Bear International, said northern sea ice generally continues to melt at an alarming rate.
“The overall prognosis for bears on a worldwide basis still remains dim at best,” Buchanan said in an interview from Alaska. “This is an aberration.”
Polar bears will continue to suffer from greenhouse gases that are warming the planet unless we plant more trees, make more use of recyclable materials and reduce energy consumption, he said.
“We’re killing polar bears from the comfort of our armchairs.”
Even the biggest polar bears these days aren’t as big as they used to be, said John Gunter, general manager of Frontiers North Adventures in Churchill, Man.
But after years of watching polar bears shrink and dwindle in population, it’s nice to observe them doing well this summer, he said.
“It’s a one-off, but it’s still really encouraging to see.”
Gunter also pointed out that there is still some ice on Hudson Bay. Usually, it’s long gone by now.
5378930.9
1. For an interesting overlay of satellite JAXA data and that produced by the State of Alaska click on the following (or copy and paste):
http://solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=globalwarming&action=display&thread=346&page=91
Once at the site, scroll down to the entry by kiwistonewall, who explains that the algorithm for the satellite data processing seems not to have been recalibrated for younger ice. Alaska thinks there’s a lot more ice up there than meets the satellite’s eye. Kiwistonewall has done similar overlays of Canadian Ice Service’s observations this year in presenting his argument that the alarmists are not presenting the most complete data at this point.
2. People have probably seen various murmurings regarding underwater volcanoes’ possibly having played a role in the thinning of the ice over the past decade. Scientists discovered a whole slew of active volcanoes along the Gakkel Ridge running the length of the Arctic basin in 2001. While there is no conclusive evidence linking the volcanoes to the melt, enough people have asked NSIDC about it that they have put up a FAQ response:
Have undersea volcanoes caused the Arctic sea ice decline?
A recent study discovered active volcanoes on the floor of the Arctic Ocean, and some people have wondered if they are causing sea ice to melt.
While volcanic eruptions surely warmed the ocean in the immediate vicinity of the eruptions, the amount of heat they produced compared to the large volume of the Arctic Ocean is small. The Arctic Ocean covers 14 million square kilometers (5.4 million square miles), about 1 ½ times the size of the United States or 58 times the size of the United Kingdom. The Arctic Ocean is 4,000 to 5,500 meters (13,000 to 18,000 feet) deep. The heat from the volcanoes would have dispersed over an enormous volume and had little effect on ocean temperature, much as a bucket of boiling water emptied into a lake would have little effect on the lake’s temperature.
Second, the eruptions would have introduced heat on the ocean floor, thousands of feet below the sea ice that floats on the ocean surface. The Arctic Ocean is strongly stratified, which prevents layer mixing and makes it difficult for any deep water, even deep water warmed by heat from volcanoes, to reach the surface and melt the ice. This layering results from a strong density gradient: water layers near the surface are less dense, while bottom waters are the densest. But unlike most oceans, where warmer, lighter water rises to the top, Arctic Ocean waters are heavily stratified because of variations in salinity. River runoff and sea ice melt into surface waters dilutes the salinity of surface waters, making them less dense.
-ends-
Again, I think it is possible, even likely, that NSIDC is correct and that the volcanoes have not played a role. On the other hand, the information in their FAQ response is not accurate.
I wrote the following e-mail to Mark Serreze (with whom I’d already exchanged a few e-mails) :
Dear Mark,
Having again mulled the NSIDC statement regarding possible volcano-related melt of sea ice (which I paste below for your convenience), I have some thoughts.
In fact, very little of the Arctic basin is as deep as this piece of writing suggests. I’m sure you have your own maps, but here are links of a couple to look at for convenience:
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/image/IBCAO_betamap.jpg
http://gdr.nrcan.gc.ca/seisref/arctic_e.php
So, while the relatively impressive depth of the Litke Deep (between the Lomonosov Ridge and the Gakkel Ridge) adds considerably to the average depth of the basin, the majority of the Arctic Ocean is actually fairly shallow. The only way to get a figure for the Arctic’s depth such as the one given by NSIDC is to ignore the continental shelves, but much of the basin is shelf! Including the shelves, the average depth of the Arctic Ocean is just 4,300 feet.
Also, the presumption that whatever volcanism takes place does so in the deepest portions of the basin runs counter to the fact that it is the Gakkel Ridge that has been shown to be volcanic. Whether it proves to be the only volcanic feature in the entire basin remains to be seen, but the ridge is nowhere near 13,000 feet deep (let alone 18,000).
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v421/n6920/abs/nature01351.html
I wonder if you would consider having the text regarding undersea volcanoes edited, given all of the above?
Thank you in advance for your consideration.
Sincerely yours,
Harold Ambler
I have yet to hear back from Serreze on this one.
I had told him in my original e-mail that a warm feature on Unisys’ sst anomaly map south of Wrangel Island in the Chukchi Sea — http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html — seemed like a possible candidate for volcanic SST warming.
As I say, there is nothing like proof one way or the other here. Neither Serreze nor Walt Meier evinced anything like intellectual curiosity about the possibility of volcanic warming. They would do well to make their dismissal look better by posting an accurate statement on their website regarding the depth of the Arctic Ocean.
The warming is coming! It’s scary! It’s bad!
The ice-caps are melting! The bears are so sad!
Soon they will drown and it’s ALL YOUR DARN FAULT!
So pay double for everything, now, at WalMart!
When energy doubles and triples and more,
It’s just the beginning – all prices will soar!
The warming is coming! It’s scary! It’s bad!
The ice-caps are melting! The bears are so sad!
So pay more for food – c’mon – go and see!
The corn tastes much better in my SUV!
Tax ’em says Waxman – and Markey agrees –
By spending our wages on these fantasies,
In ten years we might cool .01 degrees!
The warming is coming! It’s scary! It’s bad!
The ice-caps are melting! The bears are so sad!
Let’s go! Get aboard! This train’s out the station,
Don’t breathe out Co2 – that’s so out of fashion!
Carbon’s connected to all human efforts,
Taxed and controlled, it’s like a collective,
We’ll fix the earth – this warming’s defective!
The warming is coming! It’s scary! It’s bad!
The ice-caps are melting! The bears are so sad!
Throw money, throw jobs, throw whatever you’ve got,
To cool every nation on earth, and if not,
Then throw out science and all rational thinking –
Hey – it’s not like we’ll miss it – our brains have gone missing –
Sold like our souls for Gore’s fat commission…
The warming is coming! It’s already here!
Now gimme your wallet -You’ll pay for that fear…
©2009 Dave Stephens
I wonder what the monthly PDO graph would look like on a min/max Arctic sea ice extent graph from 1900 to present.
Correcting myself….
I was a ridge we measured on the Fjord (20 feet), i pulled out my photo album from back then and checked and i have labeled 96″ (8 feet) of new ice created in the winter of ’79-80.
Sorry for the mis-information from before (memory not the best, that’s why we write it down)….
“Clean” energy, or green energy if you will, is so darned expensive, that the paychecks for the “Made In America’ Jobs” will be issued in India and China. Nice bit of irony there.
Robert Kral (18:55:53) :
What does the 1979-2008 average look like? Why is the 1979-2000 average considered to be some kind of magical reference point, and who considers it to be so?
I agree. These baselines (lots of them–not just polar ice extent) are very “warming centric”. What if the climate system is nontransitive and has a number of limit points, some above and some below current values, and spends all its time wandering from one to another? One chooses a low baseline, and lots of people get in a lather about a “secular” trend for no reason at all.
Gene Nemetz (16:57:10) :
… p.s. I appreciate this blog. I am so happy it exists. I think a lot of other people are too.
Hear, hear.
Finally, we are piling opprobrium on the MSM for not covering stories symmetrically (i.e. what we might consider fair), but the media always look for the “man bites dog” story. Ice growing at the poles is the exact opposite of “man bites dog”.
A little humor to help life along …
http://ifglobalwarmingisrealthenwhyisitcold.blogspot.com/