excerpts:
From Joe’s European Weather Blog:
The current unseasonable cold across northwest Europe is not the only place where the arctic hound is calling as yet another blast of reality gets lobbed into the base camp of agenda driven warmingistas, who of course refuse to see anything that could possibly challenge their false idols. I will not say that the cold that has been occurring is a sign an ice age it is on the way, but it is a sign that people worldwide had better wake up to the idea that the “science is in” crowd does not want them to see facts.
First of all, cries out of the U.S. government-based NOAA of “Here comes El Nino” are 5 months late to a party I starting throwing last winter. They are out of touch on this being a warm year unless of course they get to skew the data worldwide. The satellites which measure temps without instrument bias have been seeing the cooling. But here we find the private sector saying something 5 months before, and now the U.S. government mets are suddenly seeing it and issuing a) el nino watches and then b) taken the nonsensical step of saying we will have a hot time because of it. The El Nino is coming while the PDO is cold, and a winter more harsh than last year may be shaping up for Europe.
And from an AccuWeather article on lightning, Joe says parts of the US may have a year without a summer”:
According to Long Range Expert Joe Bastardi, areas from the northern Plains into the Northeast will have a “year without a summer.” The jet stream, which is suppressed abnormally south this spring, is also suppressing the number of thunderstorms that can form.
Yikes!
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day forecast says it is already shaping up to be a cold June:
and the 30 day CPC forecast here
Joe Bastardi!!
I’ve always liked him. And I have wished to see some guest posts from him here!!!
small typo thats year not ear without a summer
REPLY: Thanks fixed. – Anthony
In PHX AZ it was 90 degrees today and the cool weather started last Friday. This is Arizona in June where it is never this cool for any more than a day. Clouds have been in the sky just about every day for a couple of weeks as well. As an AZ native of 34 years, this weather does not happen here.
A good example of the way two different organizations operate:
Accuweather is a for-profit entity – they’ve got to get it right else they won’t be in business for long. So they stick their necks out long before NOAA ever mumbles anything about an El Niño.
The impression I used to have is that NOAA’s NWS was the ‘gold standard’ in weather forecasting; it’s now looking more like fool’s gold as the impression I’m getting is that they look at how the data conforms to their models. Probably fallout from the poor scientific methods being practiced these days by the closed climate science community.
And in fifty years, this era of the AGW belief system will be looked on as a silly mass movement rooted in nothing but mass hysteria.
The phrase “year without a summer” has been used to describe a particular historic period that was quite severe and followed the explosion of Mount Tambora. I don’t sense that this post is suggesting anything quite so drastic although maybe that is the idea. Maybe a clarification is possible.
I wouldn’t take those seasonal models to seriously. My understanding is that they have poor performance.
Here in Minnesota, “summer” so far was two days in May that hit record warms in the 90s. Other than that, it’s mostly been unseasonably cool, sometimes with highs in the 50s in June!
If anybody could find anymore on the “year without a summer” comment, I’d be most grateful. I’ve been looking around accuweather, and elsewhere, but can’t find anything. Maybe it was a private comment. I don’t know.
“The satellites which measure temps without instrument bias have been seeing the cooling. ”
Does he mean the global cooling since 2008?
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:2008/plot/rss/from:2008/trend
or in the last 12 months?
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/last:12/plot/rss/last:12/trend
REPLY: why don’t you write and ask him the question directly instead of your snark? He puts his email address right on his blog, reposted here for your convenience:
bastardi@accuweather.com
I suspect he may be correct about the northern plains. I just checked the records for my locale here in SE MN and since the start of May we’ve had 9 days where the daily aver temp had a positive departure from normal, 1 in the last 18 days. The numbers for daily highs and lows are comparable, with one daily record low in May. Evidently Mr. Waxman was right and all that evaporating ice has caused the arctic tundra to raise up enough to ramp all that cold down here to the lower 48. BTW, Joe Bastardi? Ain’t he the guy who killed Kenny? Sorry, couldn’t help myself. He’s probably heard that one as often as I’ve heard Hey Wendt, where’d you go?
part 2, Joe Bastardi on global warming. Starts at 2:05 of video :
Leon Brozyna (22:04:06) : “…And in fifty years, this era of the AGW belief system will be looked on as a silly mass movement rooted in nothing but mass hysteria.”
This era will also be looked on as the time when the mass media wrote themselves full tilt into social irrelevance and financial suicide.
Stuck weather patterns.
The West is stuck with an unusually far south Low.
Last year it was the winds. Windstorms.
People are noticing.
In Sacramento, in June, you go to work dressed for hot weather.
Not this year. Don’t put that sweather away just yet.
2.5 years into this minimum, and this is what the most prevalent active regions on the sun graph out like: http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/2006_9a.JPG
Don’t hold your breath expecting the 2nd quarter of 09 to be that much different than the 1st quarter.
We’ve had a few spots, the flux is up, but other than that, this graphic tells a lot about how strong things are:
http://www.solen.info/solar/images/swind1.gif
Correlation? Yes.
Causation? Does it really matter??
If nothing changes, expect more of the same.
Accuweather in general and Joe Bastardi in particular have an excellent reputation with the investing crowd. I’ve seen him on at least two, and I think it may have been three (!) competing financial channels in the same week. They don’t waste their time on other sources. He talks, and the futures traders place bets. It’s that simple.
Millions of dollars move in minutes. I remember last year when a hurricane was headed into the gulf. He predicted what it would do to oil facilities (where it would hit) and prices moved in sync. There was maybe a 2 minute lag from when he spoke to when prices moved. Even the floor brokers had to be watching (or had a feed into the ear bug…).
He is right far more often than not. I have tremendous respect for the man and anything he says.
Also: At least you all can see The Big Blue Blob sitting on top of my head…
If you draw a line from the “kink” in California where it wraps around Nevada to the bottom edge of the “ear” that is San Francisco bay, I’m at the earlobe 😉 more or less…
See, I wasn’t just griping with no good reason… I was griping with a perfectly good reason 8-{
And it looks like we’re “special” enough to stay under The Big Blue Blob for the next 30 days. Oh Joy. /sarcoff>
Somebody tell Pamela to start trialing Barley cultivars and looking for a local mill / purchaser or brewpub that malts their own… Or maybe oats…
Maybe the UK Met is operating on the axiom that if you just keeping predicting the same thing, eventually you’re bound to be right.
Pofarmer (22:35:49) :
The year without a summer was 1816.
In Europe, the summer was cold, wet, dark & gloomy.
In the Northern US, it was the “year without the summer”. Killing frosts occured in every month, and crops were widely ruined.
In Ohio, it was known as Eighteen Hundred and froze to death.
In New England, it was known as “The Mackerel Year” (they ate fish because everything else failed !!).
Do keep in mind that 1816 was in the middle of SC6. The 2nd bum cycle in the Dalton Minimum. We’ve a long way to go… provided SC24 gets off the ground. No guarantees.
The cold extends from the northern plains into southern Alberta, where even the most cautious gardener has been hammered this spring. Sub-zero temperatures in the cities of Calgary and Lethbridge rarely occur beyond the May 24 long weekend. This year, Calgary has seen snow in June, and Lethbridge has had 4 days below zero Celsius in June (after 10 sub-zero nights in May), including the coldest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (all-time). 30 cm of snow was reported in parts of the SE corner of Alberta and the SW corner of Saskatchewan on June 6. It has been undeniably out-of-the-ordinary, with nothing similar in the climate record in nearly sixty years, and with all-time records commonplace. In northern Montana, a huge snowstorm affected the plains in May, and the plains turned white yet again in many regions – this time in June. Above normal temperatures are finally predicted by Friday, but the region has had below normal temperatures in most months during the past two years. I, for one, am sick of the negative PDO and the extended solar minimum, or whatever the heck is causing this.
Flanagan, I suspect he’s looking at the bigger picture
Click Here
You [snip -ad hom] if you believe a 1 year plot will argue your [snip] cause….
Joe telling it like it is. It doesn’t get any better than this. Gee whiz, no post for Joe on “Real Climate”?
Re: Accuweather in general and Joe Bastardi in particular have an excellent reputation with the investing crowd.
Half baked baloney from a trash talking simpleton. E.M.Smith, try doing science instead of spin.
Global temperatures for Flanagan:
http://www.klimadebat.dk/forum/vedhaeftninger/glotempmay092.gif
El nino is 5 overlapping seasons at or above +.5 .. Considering it hasnt even gone positive yet, and 4 out of 5 of the last ‘seasons’ were La Nina conditions broken only by this last one at -0.1, isn’t it a little soon to be crowing about a El Nino this year?
You will be glad to know the winter in New Zealand so far has also been shaping up to be colder normal – but its just weather of course!
I’m in Singapore (1 degree north of the equator) for a few days. The maximum temperature here today was 32 degrees C. The maximum temperature here is always around 30-32 C.
My question for the global warmongers is this: Surely if we have been having global warming, the average temperature in Singapore should also be rising?
I’ve been reading Joe’s European blog for about a year.
I agree – I think it’d be great to have him as a guest writer! But I’m sure he has plenty on his plate already.
In any case I hope to hear more of his views, like this one here.
I think his forecasts have been more accurate than those from the UK MET circus.
@Just want results,
thanks for the clip.
“Half baked baloney from a trash talking simpleton. E.M.Smith, try doing science instead of spin.”
A marvelously rational scientific statement!
APE (21:45:37) :
small typo thats year not ear without a summer
I think the warmista are aiming to have a summer without ears. They certainly don’t like hearing about June snows.
I like your site. Here in Berkshire UK it IS a cold June – not exceptionally so: temperatures will reach 16 centigrade today but it is overcast, damp and showery and this weather is set to stay for a week or so. Normally in UK we’d expect to be watching the exertions of the men on the cricket pitch whilst we sported sun hats and cooled ourselves with chilled strawberries and cream and not swathed in waterproofs scuttling from A to B between showers. Not so.
Would you care to comment on the recent tragic crash of the Airbus 300 (AF flight 447). It has been suggested that the weather had something to do with it …”unusual storm conditions” was the phrase the media used? Maybe it’s too early to comment but what concerns me is didn’t the departure airport know how bad the weather conditions were? Should the flight have been grounded? How much detail and over what distance of the flight path would the (any) departure airport have before its flights take off? Were other aircraft types flying similar routes at the same time? I think we need some input from the weather men here. I hope there will be some kind of memorial set up soon. Our hearts go out to the 228 deceased and their friends and families.
Anthony, these are another chilling news for the soon chilling world. Coming from the tropics and just north of the equator, the situation is not different from us here in the Philippines. Thick clouds or rains everyday for almost 2 weeks now, except last Saturday. The local tourism sector is affected. Many people stay in the cities and dont go out of town because of fear of flooding in some roads.
cold weather between 5 and 20 june is a normal phenomenon in NW Europe esspecially in germany and the netherlands . its called schafskälte or sheepherder cold
in this cool and rainy period sheepherders shave their sheep so they dont get burned by the sun.
Its also called European monsoon. This weather patern occurs because Europe`s mainland is warming up fast, but the ocean is still relatifly cold, causing a drop in pressure above the mainland, so that colder air from west /northwest flows into europe
Joe Bastardi reminds me of Nouriel Roubini:
.
“On Sept. 7, 2006, Nouriel Roubini, an economics professor at New York University, stood before an audience of economists at the International Monetary Fund and announced that a crisis was brewing. In the coming months and years, he warned, the United States was likely to face a once-in-a-lifetime housing bust, an oil shock, sharply declining consumer confidence and, ultimately, a deep recession.”
.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/17/magazine/17pessimist-t.html
This quote from the article had me howling and seeing the parallel
When the economist Anirvan Banerji delivered his response to Roubini’s talk, he noted that *Roubini’s predictions did not make use of mathematical models* and dismissed his hunches as those of a career naysayer.
Leon Brozyna- Not hysteria but a deliberate agenda to close down capitalism and stop
globalisation, encouraged by left wing governments which are seizing the opportunity to impose higher taxes and tighten their grip on the public.
Can we get a link to news cast? I searched fox quickly I may missed it
Well, if you go to NCDC’s monthly temperature data site, you will find the following:
1. May was very much warmer than normal in the SW USA.
2. For the year to date, only one state in the extreme northern mid-west is below the 1971 – 2000 average, whereas most of the SW is above normal and the extreme SW (Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada) very much above normal. The rest of the country is around normal.
So I guess a cool June in the SW might just start to even up the score……….
Or is it just a blog? When will someone talk about it on the news? This is rediculous. Blogs are fine, but they do not reach far wide like the good ol’ TV/Radio, that by the way I watch very sparingly. I like to see things in print, but for the sake of arguing it would be nice to see something that has aired on public TV. Any that is my OT spiel(spell check)
Flanagan (22:39:49) :
For non-cherry picking analysis of long term temperature changes and their relationship to carbon dioxide, take a look at this:
http://www.climate4you.com/ClimateReflections.htm#20080927:%20Reflections%20on%20the%20correlation%20between%20global%20temperature%20and%20atmospheric%20CO2
I blame Mt Redoubt.
Re rbateman (23:04:05)
1816 was profoundly affected by the Plinian erruption of Tambora, of 10th April 1815, which lopped some 5,000 feet off the top of the mountain.
The intensity was some 4X that of Krakatau’s famed 1883 erruption.
Global temperatures dropped by 0.3C-0.5C the following summer.
I remember the big lightning we used to have 50 years ago in California. This year I am finally seeing the return of that. I wonder if there is historical data kept on big lightning storms?
Oh, an interesting chart on Wiki.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Greenland_sulfate.png
Shows the 1816-17 spike in sulphate particles, produced by Tambora, in the Greenland ice from http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/1991/91JD01634.shtml
from Dai et al, 1991.
Also shows a spike of similar amplitude, in 1810, from an unknown eruption, probably one of the remote, Andean, volcanos was responsible for that.
A “double -whammy” (Maybe triple, combined with the low solar activity?)
Two years ago in Kabul, Afghanistan the June temps hovered around 33°C.
Last year June hovered around 31°C.
Forecast through about 17 June we’re looking at about 27°C. Still getting rain…very unusual. Still snow in the higher elevations west of the city.
Today a lovely 24°C. I’ll enjoy it while I can.
pkatt: You wrote, “El nino is 5 overlapping seasons at or above +.5 .. Considering it hasnt even gone positive yet, and 4 out of 5 of the last ’seasons’ were La Nina conditions broken only by this last one at -0.1, isn’t it a little soon to be crowing about a El Nino this year?”
That’s for an El Nino to be considered “official” on ONI. Equatorial Pacific SST anomalies, however, have been working their way toward El Nino conditions. NINO3.4 SST anomalies (OI.v2 SST) have been positive for 6 weeks, though they haven’t crossed the threshold of 0.5 deg C yet. And most models are predicting a moderate El Nino for the 2009/10 season. Are the model predictions right? Sometimes.
There were several ‘years without a summer’ during the 14th century in Northern Europe. This led to widespread famine. The wether was wet and cold for many of the sumer months. For more information on this interesting century see Barbar Tuchmann ‘s ‘A distant Mirror’. This was the end of the medieval warm period.
If Joe B is right, what is the impact, if any, on the Canada + USA grain harvest this year?
Down by 10%, 20%, 30% or more?
Has Joe’s prediction had any effect on grain futures yet?
Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen, faites vos jeux.
“..ear without a summer”. Van Gough had many a summer without an ear.
Pauls (23:37:06) :
Flanagan, I suspect he’s looking at the bigger picture
Click Here
Surely this is the bigger picture …..
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1979/plot/rss/from:1979/trend
Flanagan (22:39:49),
You forfeit credibility when you use woodfortrees as an authoritative citation. It is the ultimate cherry-picking site — you can make a graph that shows anything at all.
I use WFT myself occasionally to verify facts for my own interest. It’s a fun site that lets a user create instant graphs. But as the authoritative source in your posted comment, all it shows is that you’ve lost the argument. Sort of like using the extremely biased Wikipedia to validate your runaway global warming arguments.
JLKrueger (02:18:24) :
Be careful over there JL… And enjoy the weather.
Here is the post I had on the accuweather,com pro site around 10 days ago
IS THIS A TOP 5 COLD SUMMER IN THE MAKING IN THE LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
Perhaps. The cold PDO is always a notorious threat for a core of cool
near the lakes, but other items have developed here that suggest that
we are off to a good start for that, a cool June. While it
certainly can turn around, the developing nino is not
favorable for that with a cold PDO. What happens is that this keeps
trying to push more than normal energy into the southern branch,
and with enough northern branch still around from the departing
colder signal, one sees the squeeze play on southern ridges. If one
looks closely at the ridge forecasted next week in the south, its
a ridge, but not with above normal heights. In other words, its there
because of what is going on around it, not because its there because
a major ridge position is there. The natural feedback in the
rockies as the summer heats up should pull the ridge back to
west again, and as the new affects of the neg SOI come east,
an eastern trough is liable to develop next week into the week after.
As you can see, the simplified version on the public site is really the tip of the iceberg at best. for the record, The UKMET and I are singing Cumbaya on the
Euro summer as I think much of eastern and central Europe is hot this summer, but
the winter could be alot of fun for lovers over colder and snowier weather.
Please remember that a public site as accuweather.com is, is not the same as
the complextities and the story I am weaving for our prosubscribers. For instance
you el nino neh sayers, its already here. Take a look at what has happened to the
Indian monsoon! Same as 2006 and same as all el nino years, it has crashed
in June. The past does have something to do with the future
ciao
JB
Wow…what a flip. Just a month or so ago the west was in for a warm summer to….I swear over the past few year NOAA has had quite the warm bias in the east and south when it comes to summer…sheesh…they need to get their facts straight.
The colder weather in Europe is a normal thing and hase no infuence on the summer. because of heat building up in spring the atmosphere can’t handel it wich cause a low presure area on the continent of Europe. West of Europe you get a high presure area. The result is wind blowing from the much colder regions. Its comen for this to happen in June. But there is more going on this year. The jet stream is in the last 7 monts more offen going to the south than north. today I looked at a jet stream map and it was laying over spain. making it easy for low presure areas to go over the continent.
this link showes you the jetstream:
http://www.wunderground.com/data/640×480/2xeu_jt.gif
I can attest that so far in Central PA, it’s been a “year without a Summer”. I mean, other than the obvious fact that Summer only starts on June 21st (technically). 🙂
But we have had a number of cool days, lots of clouds, lots of rain, and generally poor growing conditions. I am being given the one-two punch this year, being both a solar energy contractor and a food producer. Both rely on the sun, and it has been conspicuously absent this year to date.
rgtr wrote: “This weather patern occurs because Europe`s mainland is warming up fast, but the ocean is still relatifly cold, causing a drop in pressure above the mainland, so that colder air from west /northwest flows into europe.”
How does the mainland heat up while the air is still cold and the region is cloud covered? And of course, as you state, the ocean is still relatively cold? The mechanism you propose makes no sense.
Joe:
“The current unseasonable cold across northwest Europe is not the only place where the arctic hound is calling as yet another blast of reality gets lobbed into the base camp of agenda driven warmingistas, who of course refuse to see anything that could possibly challenge their false idols.”
False idols? Idol worship explains the behavior whic I couple with sorcery.
We see clearly some emotional activity that was before called astrology. A lot of disclaimers and vague assertions just in case they are wrong.
On June 7th, Buffalo, Wyoming broke both its record lowest High temp and record lowest Low temp. The readings for June 7, 2009 were 41 and 32. The previous records were 46 and 33. It is rare for a single day to break both records – especially in late spring and summer. If one has a low high, it is because of overcasr/wet weather; thus, the low will be moderated. If there is a record low, it is usually because of clear, cold weather which will result in a sunny day.
Not only was 41 degrees a record low High for June 7th, it was a record low High for the entire month of June. A look around Wyoming and Montana would likely show similar data throughout the Northern Rockies. Weather not climate? Yes. But climate is a collection of weather observations over time. And there have been plenty of observations of late that AGW climate models are flawed.
Pofarmer
Year without a summer was 1816, the year Frankenstein was written. Combination of a cool period (Dalton minimum) and Mt Tambora blowing in 1815. In UK, 1814 was colder than 1816 (CET) so volcano not totally to blame.
Tax and control everything that exists and then apply retrotaxes on factories for having created vehicles, infrastructure and jobs in the first place!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8089722.stm
I tell you, I can see blood being spilled over this attempt to takeover, control and tax everything. It will only take a certain number of job losses to happen before the unemployed take to the streets and only a few of them need to get mad enough to assassinate any politician, journalist or activist who promoted these ideas in the first place.
(I am not advocating it, just saying)
For those on the blog who are weather nuts, I would highly recommend getting subscription to Accuwx pro – daily postings from Joe B included. No one works harder than Joe, as far as I can tell. He is obsessed with getting it right (not that he always does, but he will give you some great insights).
“David Walton (23:49:14) :
Half baked baloney from a trash talking simpleton. E.M.Smith, try doing science instead of spin.
timetochooseagain (22:24:51) :
I wouldn’t take those seasonal models to seriously. My understanding is that they have poor performance.”
In the last few cooling years, the rhetoric from the faithful has been reduced to grumpy, short “sound bytes”. There is no scientific countering of issues taken with the CO2 and warming. Why don’t they try doing science instead of spin? Why would modellers who are happy with predictions 100years hence be remarking on the poor performance of weather model predictions one month hence? The biggest problem of having the science all settled and done is well trained scientists are relegated to standing guard and parrying scientific questioning with insults. One reason the tide is beginning to turn and there are signs of desperation in the post scientific era of the consensus is that the wise ones among them realize that the only science being done is by those outside the consensus. The reason this blog is both the most popular of all the climate science sites (and the most pilloried by the “science is done” philistines whose contribution here is like that of an electronic virus) is that science is not settled. It is alive and exciting whichever way it takes us. The fact that this blog is open to the AGW side and they haven’t brought to bear their scientific might, makes one even more convinced that they’ve got it all wrong.
“Van Gough had many a summer without an ear.”
Ah, monsieur – but WUWT is a website devoted to accuracy.
Vincent van Gogh lost his ear in December of 1888.
He died in July of 1890.
Thus, van Gogh had only ONE entire summer without an ear.
(Not to mention that it was just the earlobe that he lost)
@Flanagan
Or since 2007?
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:2006.9/plot/rss/from:2006.9/trend
Nice cherry picking. Anyone can do it.
Hmmm … the 8-14 day forecast shows over half the country to be at normal or above normal temps (Alaska is part of the US).
The 30-day map of the lower 48 shows over half the region to be warmer or at “equal chance above, below, or normal”.
The Gore Effect has disappeared from Wikipedia again, probably taken down by one of the cults that rule the roost on the Encyclopedia *anyone* can edit
Raven (01:08:19) :
Joe Bastardi reminds me of Nouriel Roubini
Priceless.
On Bastardi’s “NOAA late to the party”:
Central MN and south, in sharp contrast to the north, has been cool and dry this spring. Just had a couple days of drizzle and lower 50’s temps.
NOAA says we received 1-1.5 inches when our total was less than 0.5 inches after the driest May since 1934.
Corn and ethanol here, as well as Canadian wheat, look to have an off year. Soy in this area also seems late into the ground needing higher temps for germination.
To the north last year’s corn is still in the field; too much moisture then and now to get into the fields.
With PDO & AMO negative farming on the margin will require agility.
smallz79 (01:33:41) :
Unfortunately, main stream media (MSM) has their chips on the AGW bet line and will be very slow to cover the current reality. Not so many years ago the comment by Chris Wood (01:26:52) would seem to be extreme, but one has to ask is it poor journalism and reporting turned entertainment (for impact and ratings only) or is it agenda driven ?
OT… On Fox News this AM… New farm animal fart tax in USA… $175 for ea dairy cow $80 for each meat cow and $20 for each pig… I seem to recall that New Zealand’s put the kibosh on this vaporous tax… How did they do it? Maybe we need a good old fashioned cattle drive in the streets and offices in DC. Get ready for $8 milk and $10 Big Macs. The crazies have their panties in a wad again.
Maybe a fun post with appropriate cow fart jokes?
Summer without ears??
Pretty corny!
(sorry)
Bob Tisdale. You wrote most models are predicting a moderate El Nino. I believe those are the ” dynamic ” models. I believe the ” statistical ” models are predicting ” neutral “. Something i noticed at the NCDC weekly Enso update. fm
Adam in Kansas has asked which models, ( statistical, or dynamic), are more accurate. I have no idea. Perhaps Bob Tisdale or Bill Illis know. IMHO, dynamic implies the modeler is able to tweek the prediction based on an underlying comprehension of relative forcings. fm
Well, the post is about a recent cooling, isn’t it? This is why I posted a recent trend. Actually, any trend over a relatively acceptable period gives warming.
My meaning was to show that satellite temperatures are so fluctuating that they’re not really useful for short-term trends.
Chris Wood (01:26:52) :
Leon Brozyna- Not hysteria but a deliberate agenda to close down capitalism and stop
globalisation, encouraged by left wing governments which are seizing the opportunity to impose higher taxes and tighten their grip on the public.
Not sure what you mean here by the left trying to “stop globalization.” In political circles, globalization is something I associate with the left, trying to make the whole world over into one mold (think here “one world government” for a particularly paranoid view of “globalization”). Perhaps you mean “global economy.” Even that isn’t necessarily a goal of the left, to stop a global economy. Think, here, of the controversy over a North American trade union. Globalization of anything is probably antithetical to freedom, except the globalization of a democratic ideal. But how that ideal gets realized has to be left up to local choices and influences, or we are back to the authoritarian imposition of one region’s values on another.
Another example: where did the impetus for the European Union come from? The right, or the left? How’s that working out for freedom? The US was a unique, and for a long time successful, experiment as a national union precisely because of the diversity it enabled in how we govern ourselves at the state level. As “federalism” (an awkward term which today refers to what used to be called “states rights”) gives way to a national union dominated by the Federal government, we’re becoming a “globalized” polity on a national scale.
There is very little good I associate with the word “globalization.” Perhaps others have a different perspective. I wouldn’t insist on globalizing my understanding. 😉
Hold yer Palominos!
‘Year without a summer’ is not Joe B’s phrase (see his column today, if you are a subscriber to AccuWeather Pro), and it’s a bit over the top. What Bastardi has been saying for a few months now is that with a developing Nino in ENSO 3, 4 in the context of a negative PDO and an extended solar minimum, there is the possibility of a top 5 cold summer in the Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi Valley.
Glorious t-storm passed through my backyard (three miles from Newark Airport) about 4:00 this morning with a concerto for fortissimo thunder and car alarms. Half an inch of rain in fifteen minutes!
John Finn (03:40:05) :
Pauls (23:37:06) :
Flanagan, I suspect he’s looking at the bigger picture
Click Here
Surely this is the bigger picture …..
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1979/plot/rss/from:1979/trend
Since climate, and temperatures especially, are hardly linear processes, fitting a linear line through data like you did is hardly “the big picture.” A more realistic view of the “big picture”:
http://i39.tinypic.com/o8xy5i.jpg
There has been “recent cooling” and only those who willfully close their eyes to that fact can fail to see it. Serious questions do remain:
What has caused it?
How long will it last?
What does it imply (if anything) about AGW?
And reasonable minds can differ over how those questions are answered. But to deny the cooling itself is to remove oneself from the discourse of rational minds.
Flanagan. ” Relatively acceptable” ? To who ? …fm
It would be interesting to know whether the Department of Homeland Security
(which may turn out to be the most baleful legacy of Bush 43) has a scenario for persisting cold. Planting was late this year in the Upper Midwest, which means, presumably, thet harvest will be later than normal. What if there is a cold fall and an early freeze? What would that do to food prices?
Also, with petroleum up to 70 bucks the barrel, and the cap-and-trade tax on top of that, what would an abnormally cold winter in the populous Great Lakes and Northeast do the heating bills? I’m not talking Dalton Minimum here, just a winter as brutal as those of the late 1970’s.
‘Actually, any trend over a relatively acceptable period gives warming. ‘
Let us hope so.
Several people have pointed that by showing temps. in anomaly fashion, rather than absolute fashion, visually gives the impression that they fluctuate wildly. IMHO, if graphed in absolute terms, temps are relatively stable. In truth, aren’t we discussing changes of a few hundredths of a degree, and extrapolating that into the future ? In July of 2008, the ” consensus” was that by Feb. 2009 gasoline would be $ 7.00 per gallon. Maybe it’s human nature to do that ? fm
The New World religion wants to execute and imprison us skeptics now. It’s not just prophecy and apocalypse they stole from traditional theocracies but also the threat to kill heretics.
http://climatedepot.com/a/1096/Execute-Skeptics-Shock-Call-To-Action-At-what-point-do-we-jail-or-execute-global-warming-deniers–Shouldnt-we-start-punishing-them-now
Isn’t that against the law?
1816: the ‘year without a summer’.
http://www.mitosyfraudes.org/Calen/Year1816.html
E.M.Smith (22:48:42) :
I wouldn’t be so quick to trust MSNBC and CNBC. They give recommendations to buy stocks sometimes and the stock goes down the next day. They also give recommendations to not buy certain stocks and then those stocks go up for a couple weeks. Buyer beware!
Maybe Napoleon was more comfortable on St Helena than he would have been on Elba.
On the basis of little factual information and an overactive imagination, I vote for 1690 as the coldest year of the second millennium.
“Not sure what you mean here by the left trying to “stop globalization.” In political circles, globalization is something I associate with the left, trying to make the whole world over into one mold (think here “one world government” for a particularly paranoid view of “globalization”). Perhaps you mean “global economy.” Even that isn’t necessarily a goal of the left, to stop a global economy. ”
I think what he meant was free markets which allow all nations to play equally on the same field. The global warming alarmist community seem to be hell bent on stopping development in poorer countries, forcing developing nations to live on our welfare and thus maintain the West’s hegemony over the world, or at least the hegemony of the most powerful nations (including Russia, China, India). So in the end you have a powerful international Marxist alliance who control all trade and migration under the pretense of caring for the planet. I call it imperialism, elitism and racism. Putting an Obama or a Kofi Annan there as a public face does not disguise it well enough.
warmingistas, you know i like the sound of that.
A literary note:
“The bad weather wasn’t confined to North America. The summer weather in parts of Europe was so bad that it reminded people of November. On June 16, Mary Wollstonecraft Shelley noted that the weather at Lake Geneva turned abruptly from dry and beautiful to lashing rain, with howling winds and vicious lightning storms. Shelley was spending the “cold and rainy” summer in Switzerland with various literati. Most were confined indoors on
stormy June 22, where rounds of ghost stories ensued. They pledged to record these fables on paper, and Mary Shelley was the first to prevail (by 1818). As a fruit of her labors, we have the Gothic chiller Frankenstein: Or, the Modern Prometheus.”
” Maybe the UK Met is operating on the axiom that if you just keeping predicting the same thing, eventually you’re bound to be right.”
Like the ‘expert’ in economics who has accurately predicted ten of the last three recessions.
Slightly OT:
More on aircraft and lightning.
http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=netweather&traveler=0&zipChg=1&article=9
Leon Brozyna (22:04:06) : “And in fifty years, this era of the AGW belief system will be looked on as a silly mass movement “
That, supposing it is a naive movement but it is not, it is an speculation business, of making money out of nothing as long as there are “carbon credits” at a US$3.- per amazon jungle hectare vs. US$XXXX.-per “carbon share” which “polluters” will be obliged to buy because of the Kyoto Protocol and the next Copenhagen Protocol.
If believers think a little they will realize that “sinful” pollution will keep going on the same but now with clever brokers in between who will “transmute” CO2, the invisible gas, into visible GOLD.
That speculation will produce inflation because it is not backed with production of real goods.
Fiona Maddock, I think you’ll find the kind of discussion you want
here. Miles O’Brien is a pilot, so his discussion includes aerodynamics as well as weather.
Joe Bastardi was the reason I, (a typical Yankee tight-wad,) shelled out something like 40 cents a day to subscribe to the Accuweather “Professional Site.” I have zero faith in the NWS forecasts, beyond five days, but Joe has an uncanny ability to foresee patterns as far as a year into the future.
Not that he can’t be wrong. However even when he is wrong it is not because he totally missed the pattern, but rather because he missed a butterfly flapping its wings, and injecting an unexpected element into the pattern. Two examples spring to mind.
1.) (2006?) He basically predicted steady winds from the northwest for most of the month of January, in New England. It happened, but he also predicted it would be very cold, (which you would expect of NW winds in January.) To my amazement the NW winds stayed surprisingly mild. Apparently a steady stream of Pacific air was surging over the Canadian Rockies, injecting Chinook conditions into the NW flow.
2.) (2007?) He stated the set-up for the tropical season was much like 1954. That set off alarms for me, for I know people around here have forgotten what a Yankee hurricane is like, and are utterly unprepared. In 1954 we had three, Carol, Edna and Hazel. As predicted, the pattern developed. There were three tropical developments. Even the timing was surprisingly like 1954. However all three were a hundred miles too far from the tracks of Carol, Edna and Hazel, and were weakened and gutted by land, so New England got nothing.
I have just pointed out how close he was to amazing long-term forecasts. I guess you could say I have made excuses. However Mr. Bastardi didn’t make any excuses. He just said “I was wrong.” You can tell he doesn’t like being wrong one bit, and in fact he looks like death-warmed-over when he misses even part of a forecast, however his frankness is refreshing to me.
I think such frankness is the heart of honest science. I sure wish fellows like Hansen and Mann could be accused of such honest frankness.
I live In miami and it has rained 22 of the last 24 days.. overall the weather can characterized by three odditys..
#1 the rain would often manifest earlier in the afternoon.. and on more than half those days it would rain again in evening..
# 2 cloud ceilings and for mations have been.. so unusual.. that on a number of occasions i would go out side and see quite a few others where I live doing the same( more than one would comment that they had never seen the sky look as we did, hardlt scientific but bears noting.. one individual is a retired sailor of 30 years+)
# 3 The presence of cool breezes precendent to these deluges.. I would like to characterize this clearly.. the air itself is notably cool…and not consistent with miami
now i have attempted instumentation.. to no credible avail..
As portable gauges give no real measure lacking the primer of what were the readings prior to me placing them
mY point.. By every measure this summer.. has been no where as hot.. though we may crest in temps similiar to historical averages.. the total number of hours at that temp.. is not even comparable
most up to date summary of climate with really very good graphs
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/may_co2_report.pdf
“A cool wet June puts everything in Tune”
An old english country saying.
And here is the 30 days forecast for the US as a whole, i.e. including Alaska which for some reason is absent in the picture given above
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off15_temp.gif
REPLY: Thanks for pointing that out, I fixed that so that both maps are the same projection. – Anthony
Allan M R MacRae (03:05:44) :
If Joe B is right, what is the impact, if any, on the Canada + USA grain harvest this year?
Down by 10%, 20%, 30% or more?
Has Joe’s prediction had any effect on grain futures yet?
The crop is mostly “made” in Kansas. A late freeze reduced winter wheat yields from Neb to TX. According to USDA, the reduction is approximately 15-20% from the recent average.
Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.50 billion bushels, down 20 percent from 2008. Expected area for harvest as
grain or seed totals 34.0 million acres, down 14 percent from last year. Based on May 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is
forecast at 44.2 bushels per acre, down 3.0 bushels from the previous year.
Hard Red production is down 16 percent from a year ago to 871 million bushels. Soft Red production is down
31 percent and totals 422 million bushels. White production totals 208 million bushels, down 5 percent from a year
ago. Of the White production total, 20.8 million bushels are Hard White and 188 million bushels are Soft White.
I’ve always been skeptical of statements like “the year without a summer” as it makes the realist crowd sound like the alarmist crowd.
Besides, I remember Bastardi’s insistent prediction that Hurricane Rita was on a path to directly hit Houston despite all other predictions of a landfall east of Houston. He was one of the reasons for the mass public panic and choked highways. As a result, I very rarely give Bastardi’s opinion much weight despite what he has to say…
May be weather is not climate, but here in So. New England the outdoor, inground ambient pool temperature is 62 F. Normally by Memorial day we’re able to hold low 70s in late Spring and heat it for the weekends. Kids are asking, when’s Summer start? Answer: May not.
Joe Bastardi. Just don’t listen to his hurricane predictions for Houston and he’s okay. In 2008 for the first time in many years he didn’t predict a major hurricane. Then came “Ike.”
Adam Gallon (01:51:09) :
Re: Adam – 1816 was the middle year of 5 very rough years, starting with 1814 and ending with 1818. The chill was already in the air before the volcano cooked off.
VG (08:46:26),
Thanks for posting that excellent link.
Have a look at a collection of cold weather events world wide:
http://www.climatedepot.com/a/1226/Brrrrr-Too-cold-for-ice-cream-Parts-of-US-forecast-to-have-a-year-without-a-summer
Pearland Aggie (08:53:50) :
It happened 193 years ago, and it was thusly penned.
So too was the Vampyre written in that year by Lord Byron’s physician Dr. Polidori.
What’s being written today?
AGW Horror Stories.
Be afraid. Be very, very, afraid.
Officially, the period 2001AD – 4000AD is called the Age of Aquarius. What a strange name for an age of death. Perhaps the Age of Cerberus would be more apt?
Flanagan (07:05:14) :
Well, the post is about a recent cooling, isn’t it? This is why I posted a recent trend. Actually, any trend over a relatively acceptable period gives warming.
Sure. Just as any trend over a “relatively acceptable period” could show cooling. http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1998/plot/rss/from:1998/trend
Which is why generating a linear trend for cyclic phenomena is nothing more than a peculiar form of mathematical [self pleasuring].
Do you know what a sine wave looks like? Can you figure out what the linear trend is over a “relatively acceptable period?” Can you understand why the linear trend gives you 0 (zero) information about the value of the signal or where it’s going?
If we on this blog behaved as you and the rest of the AGW crowd, we’d be predicting a “Snowball Earth” by 2100.
REPLY: With his post Flanagan has now lost the right to accuse others of cherry picking, since his was most extreme. Anytime he does so here, just refer back to that post of his in replies. – Anthony
I’ve been in northern San Diego County for five years now. This spring is without question the coolest I’ve ever experienced. We haven’t had a full day of sun for nearly two weeks. They are predicting showers today, which is rare for June. When I was living in San Francisco, they spoke annually of June gloom, which is when the fog comes in for days or weeks at a time. Well, June gloom is happening here for the first time since I moved down.
Gary Pearse-Huh? What gives you the impression that I am not skeptical of both long term models and seasonal models? I read about how these things work, and I have little confidence in them. That isn’t an “angry sound bite” and I’m not a “believer” anyway. Jeez.
John Egan-I always thought he cut off part of it first, then more later? No?
Why weather matters:
June 1st US wheat forecast:
“Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.50 billion bushels, down 20 percent from 2008. Based on May 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is forecast at 44.2 bushels per acre, down 3.0 bushels from last year.”
Down 20% and the only the crickets are singing about it.
Corn?
Date: 29-May-09
Country: US
Author: Mark Weinraub – Analysis
CHICAGO – Planting delays in key areas of the U.S. Corn Belt this spring could lead to tight supplies of corn during the next year, forcing prices higher and further threatening profit margins at ethanol plants and livestock companies.
The slow pace of corn planting east of the Mississippi River, including major production states such as Illinois and Indiana, could cut ending stocks by as much as 35 percent, according to Joe Victor, analyst for Illinois-based research company Allendale Inc.
“Our biggest concern right now is we do believe that USDA will have no choice (but) to reduce yield for the entire Midwest, reduce the planted acres (and) send stocks under 1 billion bushels,” Victor said. “Worst case scenario, maybe we get end stocks … more close to 750 to 800 million bushels.”
Watch that space as we near harvest time. Rising food prices in the middle of a severe recession? You can say good bye to the “recovery”.
gary gulrud (06:22:13) :
“Corn and ethanol here, as well as Canadian wheat, look to have an off year. ”
makes me wonder about rising gas prices as well.
also, should we be using corn for ethanol when we may have an off year as well for corn for food.
I agree with Caleb. I’ve been an Accuweather Pro subscriber for several years. JB is great at forecasting future trends and more far often than not, gets it right. When he is wrong, he admits it with no excuses, even re-posting his original, wrong prediction.
His singing though, … not so good! 🙂
Basil (07:29:16) :
Since climate, and temperatures especially, are hardly linear processes, fitting a linear line through data like you did is hardly “the big picture.” A more realistic view of the “big picture”:
http://i39.tinypic.com/o8xy5i.jpg
Indeed, using a line for any cyclical or, more likely, chaotic process says a lot about the understanding of the person that uses it. The “best” method is to apply a Kalman filter (or one of the variants) which results in something similar to your picture here. The Kalman is optimal (MMSE, ML, MAP) for most practical noise distributions. The “trend” is meaningless without a true understanding of the underlying function.
John W. (09:13:50) :
Which is why generating a linear trend for cyclic phenomena is nothing more than a peculiar form of mathematical [self pleasuring].
Yup. But, as you noted, pick some other time in the past, and we’re all headed for the deep freeze (well, we may be, actually, because another ice age is likely).
Mark
You can say good bye to the “recovery”.
With construction, oil(as ew-3 mentions) which kicked the bottom out of our subprime house of cards, and now farmers, we are definitely headed beyond Carter-era 11% unemployment. Next, rising interest rates kick foreclosures and bankruptcies up another notch. This is a very bad cycle we’ve entered, 18 months into a recession.
rbateman (09:11:02) :
I suppose I should have been more specific–I meant I’m skeptical of those that would use such an over-the-top phrase to predict the future or describe today’s events, not to deny that there was a very cold period in the early 1800s that was described as “the year without a summer.” I think we should be very careful with the language we use to describe the current cooling lest we close minds and ears with overhyped rhetoric. It seems very unlikely to me that the planet will descend into catastrophic warming or cooling in the near future and use of such language may relegate the skeptic community to “kook” status just like the pro-AGWers, regardless of whether or not the data supports our belief. Sorry if I caused any confusion…
timetochooseagain (22:24:51) :
I wouldn’t take those seasonal models to seriously. My understanding is that they have poor performance.
timetochooseagain
It depends on who makes them!
For examüle: The seasonal prognoses for the last winter made by Joseph D’Aleo and published in the Old Farmers Almanac were spot on.
The forecasts made by any Weater Organization cooperating with the World Meteorogical Organization (UN) only sell AGW BS.
There motto is to predict warm summers and warm winters and get it right when a warm winter or a warm summer actually happens.
I need some OT help! And you guys are the best of the best to ask:
I have been chosen to participate on national Danish TV in “Denmark Radio” in a documentary with one pro and one contra AGW. This is to be broadcasted in connection with the Copenhagen meetings. The pro AGW is a Professor from Denmarks Technical University, so this is slightly challenging, and im definetyly taking a change by accepting.
I just have one question, that i need some input on:
Solar theory.
I believe the connection between solar activity vs. low cloud cover is rather well documented:
http://www.newscientist.com/data/images/ns/cms/dn11651/dn11651-2_738.jpg
http://members.shaw.ca/sch25/FOS/SvensmarkLowCloudComicRaySMALL.jpg
http://members.shaw.ca/sch25/FOS/SvensmarkCosmicRay1700small.jpg
What i need is the best possible link between low cloud cover and global temperatures.
What graphic/article/knowledge is available in a form that can be used on TV in the brief time i have?
If there is indeed no link, thats nice to know too…
Very very sorry Anthony for OT, hope you can forgive me.
K.R. Frank Lansner
Recording for television will take place in 36 hours from now…
Anthony,
Did you kill my post?
Which one of these time periods is acceptable? Cycles within cycles within cycles…
Or is it more correctly stated that, “Any trend over a period that shows relative warming is acceptable”?
John Finn (03:40:05) :
Surely this is the bigger picture …..
How about a graph from the MWP? An even bigger picture? Or from the Roman Optimum? Or from the last 10000 years? What would you consider a suitable trend?
Mark T (10:16:41) :
Indeed, using a line for any cyclical or, more likely, chaotic process says a lot about the understanding of the person that uses it. The “best” method is to apply a Kalman filter (or one of the variants) which results in something similar to your picture here. The Kalman is optimal (MMSE, ML, MAP) for most practical noise distributions. The “trend” is meaningless without a true understanding of the underlying function.
I’m not sure a Kalman filter is the right approach, but now I’ll have to dig books and papers out to brush up on the technique and consider it.
Curse you! 8^)
Frank Lasner. For television i would reccommend charts that show the actual temperatures for Central England, with a relatively small scale, rather than anomalies, which make temps look to swing wildly. The decade to decade swings should be apparent, and the current temps. would not be particularly troubling. fm
This is a bit off the forecasting topic, but I simply have to comment on the ‘news’ item that preceded Joe Bastardi’s interview, namely the report by the American Academy of Pediatrics. This report claims that children will suffer more from global warming than adults, citing an inability to physically cope with the warmer conditions.
Since the expected warming of roughly 3 degrees C over the next 100 years would be equivalent to moving about 150 miles towards the equator (in the mid-latitudes), should not the AAP be warning parents about the dangers of such moves? Certainly an instant move of 150 miles to the south would be much more climatologically traumatic then moving just 1.5 miles south each year (the average impact of the forecast climate change), yet the AAP remains silent on this seemingly vital and deadly problem of the Equatorial Relocation of Minors (EROM) while promoting the much less serious issue of AGW!
If gradual global warming (which isn’t even happening), over the course of 100 years, is really a threat to minors, than parents guilty of EROM should be immediately arrested!
Personally, I am one of the lucky ones. Many years ago, I relocated nearly 200 miles south with two small children. Not only did my kids physically survive the abrupt climate change of roughly three degrees, they seemed to thrive. Additionally, they did not seem to be psychologically effected by the climate change, even though it took place over the course of 4 hours and not the 100 years; the psychological trauma induced change the pediatricians are so concerned about.
Even more amazing is that they also survived many trips to the pediatrician’s office. If pediatricians are really stupid enough to buy into such a ridicules report, then our children are much more physically at risk at the doctor’s office than they are at risk from climate change. There is also no doubt that the constant fear mongering in the news is much more psychologically damaging to our children than an imperceptible climate change. The AAP should be warning parents about the AAP!
There are two far more likely reasons that grain production is down – –
1) Prices have plummeted
2) Very scarce credit during planting season
rtgr (01:07:00) :
It is true that a cold period in June is not unusual in northern Europe (in Sweden it is called “järnnätterna”, the Iron Nights), but this year it is anything but normal, cold records are falling right left and center in Sweden.
Most remarkable is a new cold record for June for Västervik on the Baltic Coast (-0.1 degrees centigrade). Västervik has an unbroken temperature record since the 1850’s and the former record was from the legendarily cold and wet year 1867, when Sweden had its last actual famine.
SteveSadlov (09:11:18) :
Officially, the period 2001AD – 4000AD is called the Age of Aquarius.
“When the moon is in the seventh house,
and Jupiter is aligned with Mars,
then peace will guide the planets…”
Aquarius..aquarius
Pearland Aggie (10:21:35) I think that you’re spot on. Hyperbole does not serve the skeptical position any more than the alarmist. Blaming everything from the death spiral of the arctic to toe fungus on global warming has obviously lost the warmista movement considerable credibility. It is a good lesson to take to heart.
I know it doesn’t prove anything, but my boat just sits there this summer. No hot nights when a cool drive and maybe a dip beckon. I haven’t been fishing yet, since it is just too cold for me to enjoy. Our peak summer is about six weeks centered on July 4th, which is pretty much here, and… nothing.
Jim Clarke (11:10:15) :
“…namely the report by the American Academy of Pediatrics. This report claims that children will suffer more from global warming than adults.”
(Fiction).
Now, crude reality: 133 children who have died due to the seasonal flu caused by the low temperatures in the southern part of the country, especially in the Puno region.
Temperatures reached -25°C
Link:
http://globalvoicesonline.org/2009/05/28/peru-freezing-temperatures-in-puno-result-in-children-deaths
I’d be willing to bet it would be pretty hard to find any State College weather-folk that believes in AGW.
John W. (11:04:39) :
I’m not sure a Kalman filter is the right approach, but now I’ll have to dig books and papers out to brush up on the technique and consider it.
It is an optimal estimation of the true mean for most symmetric distributions, and many others. In the “climate distribution,” the only true “noise” of course is measurement noise which is typically assumed to have a uniform distribution, for which a Kalman filter is again optimal. The issue with the Kalman filter, of course, is the same as with any smoothing procedure: what are the noise characteristics?
Curse you! 8^)
I have my wife for that, but thank you anyway! 🙂
Mark
Aron,
Isn’t it funny that that stuff comes from the left who is against the death penalty and hard punishment for criminals? I guess that is reserved for people who just disagree with them…
“The New World religion wants to execute and imprison us skeptics now. It’s not just prophecy and apocalypse they stole from traditional theocracies but also the threat to kill heretics.”
John Egan (11:19:25) :
There are two far more likely reasons that grain production is down – –
1) Prices have plummeted
2) Very scarce credit during planting season
John,
The more reason to get worried.
World food stocks are on there lowest levels since 40 years already.
Prices could change over night and we all know who in the end will pay the price for that.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22902512/
” Pauls (23:37:06) :
I think he’s looking at the bigger satellite temp picture, like a decade http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1999/plot/rss/from:1999/trend
Last night on Channel 4 News (UK) we had a piece on the recent European Elections which featured what I considered a rather loaded use of the term Climate Change Denier in the context of the success of numerous right wing parties in the said elections.
The video is here
http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid1529573111?bclid=24557372001&bctid=25713265001
And the offending passage (as I see it) starts around 2m 50s with the nub of the issue around 4m 20s.
In Europe at any rate, this immediately creates in the mind an association between Climate Change Denier and “Holocaust Denier”. This was a bit much to my taste – so I phoned them up and complained. I was listened to politely, about all I can say, and told my comments would be passed on. I sent them a brief email – no reply as yet. I put the below comment on Jon Snows blog for the day; needless to say moderated away!
Jon,
Off topic but…. On last night’s C4N, Victoria MacDonald reported on the Euro-election results across continental Europe emphasising the right wing gains and the racist and homophobic views of some of the parties elected. In particular she drew attention to the Czech ODS and its founder Vaclav Klaus describing him as Europe’s leading Climate Change Denier. Does not the use of the term Climate Change Denier in this context strike you as highly prejudicial? By association in this context, the use of the term Climate Change Denier made it appear intellectually and morally equivalent to the term Holocaust Denier. I doubt in reality that there are any climate change deniers, even the noted Mr. Klaus, given that the climate changes which have taken place on planet Earth over geological and historical time are so well established. What is not well established are the IPCC’s predictions for the future evolution of the global average temperature, nor are the causes that lead to these predictions – the hypothesis that it is caused by CO2 release from the burning of fossil fuels. It is said that the science is done and a consensus has been reached. However, science does not work like that – it is not an election. Nobody voted on whether to accept Newton’s Laws or any other scientific theory. Science proceeds by developing theories from which predicted outcomes are then tested and the theory either verified or refuted. One test of the IPCC’s theories is under way by monitoring global temperatures, other theories with different predictions for the evolution of the global climate exist and are also being tested. It is entirely possible that a majority of scientists do agree with the IPCC, but that fact alone does not make them, or the IPCC right.
I think your correspondents should avoid the use of the term Climate Change Denier in future especially in the context of discussing right wing politics.
For a good review of other ways of looking at climate change see this
http://www.fraserinstitute.org/researchandpublications/publications/6628.aspx
Frank Lasner could find the above quite useful. After all the point is the jury is out and the verdict not yet returned.
John Egan (11:19:25) :
There are two far more likely reasons that grain production is down – –
1) Prices have plummeted
2) Very scarce credit during planting season
You apparently do not farm, or you would know that $6.65 wheat, $4.44 corn and $12+ soybeans is historically high. I’ve traveled from TX to NEB this year and every cropland acre was planted. Credit was not an issue. Wheat production is down because of the late season frost that caused USDA estimated 30% loss in TX, 40% loss in OK, and 25% loss in Kansas (weather not climate)(and to some degree dry planting conditions and low Aussie production). Corn production may be lower because of rain-delayed planting.
Why not use the period of the last solar cycle, roughly 12 yrs?
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1997/plot/rss/from:1997/trend
That wouldn’t be cherry picking, now, would it?
jh,
Channel 4 has been under pressure recently to accept funding from the taxpayer via the UK’s TV licence/tax/payupnoworgotojail. They have gone from independent to government lapdog.
As for a year without a summer; just go back to yesterday June 8, in the year 1783; just a coupla years prior to the Constitution I believe.
In the Eastern United States they experienced a winter average temperature that was 4.8 degrees Celsius below the basline long term average temperature.
On that date, the eruption of Laki volcano in Iceland began and continued for eight months.
Haze from the eruption travelled all the way to Syria, as well as reaching the United States.
It will be interesting to see what (if any) difference the UK Met Office’s new computer will make:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weather/article6338014.ece
I’m not too encouraged that it’s still booting up, though, and will apparently need an upgrade before it works properly…
BTW, I wonder what Joe B makes of this:
http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=41&c=1
“”” Fiona Maddock (00:57:55) :
I like your site. Here in Berkshire UK it IS a cold June – not exceptionally so: temperatures will reach 16 centigrade today but it is overcast, damp and showery and this weather is set to stay for a week or so. Normally in UK we’d expect to be watching the exertions of the men on the cricket pitch whilst we sported sun hats and cooled ourselves with chilled strawberries and cream and not swathed in waterproofs scuttling from A to B between showers. Not so.
Would you care to comment on the recent tragic crash of the Airbus 300 (AF flight 447). It has been suggested that the weather had something to do with it …”unusual storm conditions” was the phrase the media used? Maybe it’s too early to comment but what concerns me is didn’t the departure airport know how bad the weather conditions were? Should the flight have been grounded? How much detail and over what distance of the flight path would the (any) departure airport have before its flights take off? Were other aircraft types flying similar routes at the same time? I think we need some input from the weather men here. I hope there will be some kind of memorial set up soon. Our hearts go out to the 228 deceased and their friends and families. “””
Fiona, all storm conditions are “unusual”. That means that most of the time we don’t have storm conditions, although there is likely to be some spot on earth that has storm conditions at some point in time.
And even when there are storm conditions there have always been unusual storm conditions, in that usually storms aren’t that severe; but now and then at some place or other you may get storm conditions that are unusual.
In the USA we have 50 year storms and 100 year storms, and even 150 year storms, with massive flooding and property destruction.
Usually 100 year storms happen about every seven or eight years or so; that’s long enough for everyone to forget the last one, so they can call the current one a 100 year storm; but usually we don’t get 100 year storms, except at odd times and places.
One special odd storm place seems to be the equatorial regions, since you have storms that rotate one way in the northern hemisphere, but the other way in the southern hemisphere, so right along the equatorial belt you can sometimes get a northern storm and a southern storm happenning together and adding up to a bigger storm right at the equator; but that isn’t usual either, and it usually doesn’t happen all around the equator at the same time, so it is unusual.
Also planes don’t take off from Rio de Janeiro all the time, so it is unusual for a plane to take off from Rio, and if they do, they don’t usually fly to Paris, although sometimes they might; and that means they have to cross the equatorial region where it is unusual to have tandem northern and southern storms. And that is way North of Brazil which is different from Argentina, where Rio is.
They don’t usually have weather stations out in the middle of the equatorial Atlantic ocean to monitor the weather even if it is unusual weather, and they certainly wouldn’t be telling Rio to not let any planes take off.
Airline pilots; even Air France airline pilots are trained to not fly through storms even if those storms are unusual; and usually they don’t do it.
In this case we don’t know what they did, which in itself is somewhat unusual; but it is usually a good bet to say that global warming or catastrophic climate change didn’t cause the crash, since it is unusual for airline planes to take 30 years to fly through the tropical storm zone near the equator.
So that would be a weather condition which usually has nothing to do with climate or climate change.
So i don’t think you have anything to worry about; since crashes of this type are somewhat unusual; so they are not harbingers of catastrophic climate change.
What sort of catastrophic climate change are you anticipating that might change your flight plans; if you had any ?
I think he’s looking at the bigger satellite temp picture, like a decade
“Like a decade”, my hat.
There was a severe El Nino in 1998. It was immediately followed by a severe La Nina, ending in 2001.
So include both “in” or include both “out’.
Starting anywhere in between (like in 1999) is — serious — cherrypicking.
“”” Mark T (12:14:16) :
John W. (11:04:39) :
I’m not sure a Kalman filter is the right approach, but now I’ll have to dig books and papers out to brush up on the technique and consider it.
It is an optimal estimation of the true mean for most symmetric distributions, and many others. In the “climate distribution,” the only true “noise” of course is measurement noise which is typically assumed to have a uniform distribution, for which a Kalman filter is again optimal. The issue with the Kalman filter, of course, is the same as with any smoothing procedure: what are the noise characteristics? “””
So what is the basis for assuming that climate variation is either symmetric or uniform in distribution ?
I know you say that is typically assumed; but on what basis is such a determination made.
After all, global energy fluxes tend to relate to the fourth power of global temperatures; which is highly non linear; so the upside, and the downside, are most unlikely to be symmetric.
And severe conditions of unusual warmth or cooling, are much more likely to follow a 1/f type of function regarding severity, or amplitude of anolmalies versus time; so I would not expect the distributions to be uniform either.
So given that climate variability is likely to be neither symmetric nor uniform; what would be the rationale for applying a Kalman filter; and doesn’t a Kalman filter imply some knowledge of the frequency of events being sought.
But who am I to stand in the way of science progress; try it out and see what you get.
OT:There is a new ONE PIXEL spot !! claiming for the Watts Effect to survive overnight. It has a number A small Cycle 24 sunspot was numbered 1020
http://www.solarcycle24.com
Frank Lansner (10:47:44) : SAID
“I need some OT help! And you guys are the best of the best to ask”
I am currently reviewing a new book by Peter Taylor who sometimes posts here. He seems to me to have a very good grasp of clouds.
His new book with various links is not available on his web site but this document-which seems to contain a lot of the information in the book-can be read here;
This first link is to the summary
http://www.ethos-uk.com/downloads/climate/ECSRSummary.pdf
The link below goes to the much more extensive full report. The information on clouds commences on page 48. I think figures 1 and 2 are quite powerful.
http://www.ethos-uk.com/downloads/climate/ECSR.pdf
Failing that the new book will have some more up to date information, so if the links above are not suitable why not email Peter and ask him if he can supply what you need?
Peters email address
peter.taylor@ethos-uk.com
This might also help
http://isccp.giss.nasa.gov/cloudtypes.html
Hope this is useful. Can you let me know you have read this post and then tell us all how you get on with the debate?
Good luck
Tonyb
“Putting the burning question to global-warming alarmists
Herald Sun ^ | 10th June 2009 | Andrew Bolt
STEVE Fielding has had a conversion that could blow apart the great global warming scare.
No wonder the Rudd Government is scrambling and the ABC is already sliming the Family First senator.
You see, Fielding has suddenly realised that global warming may not be caused by humans after all.”
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2268289/posts
Commenter says:
“Notice the “religious” nature of his decision: Four, five times it was described as a “conversion” (from the AGW “faith” of course!)”
This is how government and supermarket corporations plan to destroy independent farmers with carbon taxes to fight glo-bull warming
http://factsnotfantasy.blogspot.com/2009/06/taxing-cows.html
Not sure where this should go, but a good post on the weather surrounding the “D” day invasion would be interesting.
Hi Tony thankyou very much, i will let you know how it went, the television documentary. I Believe i already have your email from the discussion with Beck and Engel been?
K.R. Frank
Climate Change Politics and the Hibbert Peak No.1
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8090104.stm
wws (04:53:20) : ” . . . The mechanism you propose makes no sense.”
I did not see that anyone responded to your question. I don’t know what is happening now in Europe so cannot respond specifically. However, the mechanism being described is well known on a local scale as “land and sea breezes” and you can easily find explanations and examples. Here is one:
http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/fw/sea/htg.rxml
As one scales up in the area covered more things have to be considered but you can start by examining some named winds of note, such as the Harmattan, Mistral, Sirocco and others.
David Walton (23:49:14) :
Re: Accuweather in general and Joe Bastardi in particular have an excellent reputation with the investing crowd.
Half baked baloney from a trash talking simpleton. E.M.Smith, try doing science instead of spin.
David – In the absence of evidence – reach for the ad-homs – eh?
“try doing science instead of spin”.
Perhaps you could use your available scientific resources and methods to engage with the actual physical evidence and explain why the following graph shows cooling over the last few years – none of which has been predicted by the UN IPCC or Climate Models.
(Thanks Frank Lansner for the link)
http://www.klimadebat.dk/forum/vedhaeftninger/glotempmay092.gif
AZScott (21:56:30) :
As an AZ native of 34 years, this weather does not happen here.
Well, AZ, you haven’t lived there long enough, I guess.
I have memories (and photos) of being at the Grand Canyon the first week of June, 1962, and being snowed on.
We also have fun in the snow in Bryce and Zion canyons earlier that week.
Stumpy,
just to clarify things for you, southern hemisphere winter “officially,” starts at 6.00 hrs U.T.C. (18 hrs N.Z.S.T.) on June 21st. Don’t listen to the T.V. meteorologists and geographers when they claim that winter starts on June 1st. That is just another good example of their expediency in action. The calendar has been outta whack with the seasons since the time of Julius Caesar. Big Julie missed the golden opportunity to get it right. The upshot of that is we still have the official, as directed by astronomers, 12 weeks of winter to enjoy yet!
Fiona Maddock.
your forecast for your part of England looks very similar to our forecast in Palmerston North, New Zealand. The difference is that the 16 degrees C we are hoping for will be the highest temperature for the week!
I have a weather (not climate) question for all you weather experts. In the linked article on lightning it says:
HAVE THUNDERSTORMS BEEN MORE ELECTRIFIED THIS YEAR?
… Actually, the number of lightning flashes is considerably less than what was reported this time last year. As of June 3, 2009, there have been 5,589,686 flashes, with 6,517,381 reported by June 3, 2008. …
The jet stream, which is suppressed abnormally south this spring, is also suppressing the number of thunderstorms that can form. The ones that do form in areas of the Ohio Valley and West are forming in places with very cold temperatures, which can lead to more electrified thunderstorms than normal this year. …
Why is that? Isn’t lightning caused by the electric polarity between the ground and water vapor in the air? More water vapor -> more lightning, I thought. Why would colder temps, meaning less water vapor, lead to less lightning (that part makes sense to me) but stronger bolts (which I think is what was implied)?
BTW, we had a monster lightning storm in Oregon last week when a counter-cyclonic Pacific low sent warm, wet, southerly winds into a high pressure cell perched over Eastern Oregon.
Last year we saw a dry lightning storm that ignited over 2,000 fires in California (The Giant Fire Bust of 2008). I have never understood dry lightning. I get that there was lightning without rain, but there had to be water vapor aloft or there would have been no lightning, right?
If anyone reading this is a lightning expert, I for one would very much appreciate an informative essay/post on the subject.
Flanagan (22:39:49) :
“The satellites which measure temps without instrument bias have been seeing the cooling. ”
Does he mean the global cooling since 2008?
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:2008/plot/rss/from:2008/trend
or in the last 12 months?
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/last:12/plot/rss/last:12/trend
Flanagan – Maaate… You would have to admit that this 12 month plot is the “mother of all cherry picks”!
Surely – in all honesty – what were you thinking?
Eyeballing the RSS data over longer time frames it jags up and down all the time. Picking a short enough time interval will allow you to “demonstrate” any “trend” that you like – but doesn’t support your credibility.
I really think that you are a true AGW believer, might I suggest that you read Michael Crichton
http://www.crichton-official.com/speech-environmentalismaseligion.html
Are you using the AGW meme, with its apocalyptic/salvationist structure as crutch to support an experience of meaningfulness for your life?
Where would you be if “the world did not need saving – and you wern’t saving it”?
Is the insignificance of man your greatest personal fear?
Is the impotence of man in the face of the awesome forces of nature a deep and secret concern?
Do you sometimes plumb the depths of meaninglessness when contemplating a universe that is indifferent to the welfare of humanity? and then desperately seek the security blanket of the AGW meme where humanity is in the central role as driver of the worlds climate?
I really would like to understand your motivations.
Frank Lansner (15:30:41) : said
“Hi Tony thankyou very much, i will let you know how it went, the television documentary. I Believe i already have your email from the discussion with Beck and Engel been?”
Correct, you do
Tonyb
Frank Mosher: You wrote, “Adam in Kansas has asked which models, ( statistical, or dynamic), are more accurate. I have no idea. Perhaps Bob Tisdale or Bill Illis know.”
Ditto. I have no idea.
WHOA.
To everyone, this is a bit of a rant!
OK. Let’s divide the Earth into 3 sections…
The poles, and the tropics. (I say 3 because we have N & S poles)
Number them
1 = N Pole
2 = tTopics
3 = S Pole
Hypothetically
2 decreases 0.5ºC
3 decreases 025ºC
1 INCREASES 1ºC
That’s an increase of 0.0833ºc globally
There’s something missing though
The humidity of the tropics means that the ENERGY loss is greater, so the Earth has actually COOLED.
Go figure.
DaveE.
Forgot to mention.
Ever notice that the HOT places are always ARID?
DaveE.
Frank Lansner (10:47:44) :
Dr. Roy Spencer has done a lot recently with the concept of feedback and cloud cover. I’m not sure that it fits your needs, but it’s at least very good background. It asks 2 questions that are critical to understanding climate change: 1) does cloud cover cover cause positive or negative feedback; 2) do increased temperatures reduce low cloud cover or does reduced cloud cover cause increased temperatures? Question 2 will throw your opponent for a loop. I’m sure he’s never thought that a primary AGW assumption is simply that: an assumption. Dr. Spencer’s most recent entry on this was May 29 at:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/
DaveE (17:54:01) :
I suppose that depends on your definition of “hot”. My son, John, currently near Basra, insists that the temperature is 120F and rising… but weather underground disagrees…. my old stomping grounds in the Asian tropics (Taipei, Hong Kong, Manila) are recording higher temperatures than Iraq and are certainly NOT arid. I remember 100 plus degree days in Taipei with the humidity near 100%… and in the morning we sent the kids off to school, barefoot in the snow…. forget that last part. The Asian tropics are hot and NOT arid.
I looked at Unysis today and it seemed the PDO area went from being a solid horseshoe to no longer in the cool phase in less than a week, is it going back into the warm phase already? What’s causing it? Will the entire area be all warm anomalies as there’s pretty warm anomalies shown in the supposed warm part in a cool PDO?
Also noticed the rapid advance of reds on wxmaps.org going into Europe and down Canada with the colder blue areas now confined to the U.S and mountain regions only in the Northern Hemisphere.
Also there has been notice of cooler than normal temps. forecast for much of the tropics and in many high mountain areas, is that where a grand minimum could be felt first as they tend to get more intense sun?
DaveE, I always understood that the majority of deserts were cold. Atacama; Anatartica; Gobi?
Anyone have a comment on this?
To add further to that comment about deserts being cold.
My father fought in North Africa during WWII. He was issued a sheep-skin overcoat to sleep in at nights, due to the cold.
No clouds to keep the heat in; it radiated right out to outer space. (His observation).
Adam from Kansas @ 18:37:18
I can assure you that in this Eastern part of Canada, the capital called Ottawa, it is below normal temps that have prevailed for the past two weeks.
And, interesting correlation: lots of cloud cover.
DaveE @17:54:01
Ever notice that the HOT places are always ARID?
You don’t get out much, do you?
A PDO flip can last months to years to decades. What is interesting is that the PDO will generally be cold or warm with mild reversals during these periods. It is entirely expected that during a cold phase, an El Nino will develop, only to return rather quickly to an over all longer La Nina pattern. The reverse is true for a warm PDO. Case in point. During 1996, in the middle of a generally warmer phase, the PDO flipped within a 6 month period, causing tons of La Nina snow followed by tons of warm El Nino rain. Most predictions are for a short lived El Nino encased in ENSO-neutral conditions with a return to La Nina late in 2009. This would be typical of a cold PDO phase.
Adolfo Giurfa (11:38:55) :
SteveSadlov (09:11:18) :
Officially, the period 2001AD – 4000AD is called the Age of Aquarius.
“When the moon is in the seventh house,
and Jupiter is aligned with Mars,
then peace will guide the planets…”
Aquarius..aquarius
The alarmists remind me of the old astrology.
With regard to George E. Smith’s comment of (14:26:14) the use of the Gaussian or Normal distribution is typically based on the assumption that there are many small effects whose contributions can consist of any type distribution at all. But in the limit of many small contributions the sum of the effects becomes Gaussian…
However, the atmosphere does not work this way. Rather, the atmosphere’s effect is that of a power law distribution of effects where the largest effects have much more energy than the smallest scales. Hence, while it is conceivable that small scale effects may approach Gaussian, these small scale effects are often driven or at least strongly coupled to larger scale non-Gaussian effects and these depend strongly on the nonlinear effects that George mentioned.
With all this talk of cold I’m re-reading my copy of “The Sixth Winter” by John Gribbin and Douglas Orgill. About the sudden onset of an ice age. Scary. Gribbin is a well known science writer and even Stephen Schneider and a few others make it into the novel. Just shows that the “getting colder” meme was doing quite well in the late 1970’s.
Allan M R MacRae (03:05:44) :
If Joe B is right, what is the impact, if any, on the Canada + USA grain harvest this year?
Down by 10%, 20%, 30% or more?
Has Joe’s prediction had any effect on grain futures yet?
———————————————–
Thanks to all who commented on this important subject of crop yields. Please continue to update.
Sounds like US Wheat down ~20%, and US Corn as much as 35% from 2008.
Is this correct? If so, it does not sound encouraging.
[source Tarnsman (09:44:40)]
Would really appreciate some global warming any time now. Even all that hot air from the warming alarmists is failing to have the desired effect.
**********************************
Note to Anthony et al:
Would be helpful to follow this subject as the growing season unfolds, for North America at least, and also for Europe and Russia if possible?
**********************************
I recall when I was quite young we were always shipping wheat to Russia because they had crop failures (due in part to Lysenkoism, which reportedly lasted until 1964?). It was also colder then.
What happens if we have a significant crop failure now due to cold weather?
I understand from some posts that we have very little grain in storage.
It seems like many of the grain elevators that used to stand guard over the prairies have been knocked down.
I obviously know very little about the subject of crops and grain storage.
Would appreciate more comments from those who do.
Thanks and regards, Allan
Flanagan (22:39:49) :
This is what he is talking about
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1998/to:2010/plot/rss/from:1998/trend
Oh, the irony of coming here from a Canadian server only to see Nature Canada’s ad for ‘sign our global warming petition’ illustrated with a pair of polar bear cubs. Especially in a thread about this shaping up to be a year without a summer over much of the continent.
SE Minnesota, eh? Dave Wendt, maybe you can find out what is with the Century High School weather station that is consistently 5-10 degrees higher than the airport or suburban weather stations. (Century is up out of the Zumbro Valley – it -should- be -cooler- (except when there is no wind and a clear sky)
Hey Mike D. (16:41:42)
Water vapor or distilled water will not conduct a charge, you need salt in the water for conduction(and to form a rain drop). Hence we salty humans are very conductive! :p
Oh and the charge comes up from the ground. All rain water has salt in it, so more conductivity for lightening.
Less rain, less lighting, BUT more static builds up and soon or a later the spark will arc up and release with more intensity then when it rains.
Oh and that’s why rain always follows a thunderstorm. It’s releasing the energy or the static into the atmosphere.
Allan MacRae
What happens if we have a significant crop failure now due to cold weather?
I agree that this is a matter worth following. I too know little about the subject, but I can see that a large crop failure in the US and Canada would do more to shoot down the warmists than any external debate about science. Even politicians will listen when voters need to be fed!
It was my fault for being a little (lot) vague.
I meant the anomalies.
DaveE
More global warming, downunder…
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/freezing-morning-forecast-for-nw-sydney-20090610-c3n5.html
Can’t wait, haven’t had an icy start in years…
And more snowy weather down under…
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,25615239-2702,00.html?from=public_rss
Here is something the science is in crowed can not agree on, i taught the story was global warming would make more storms but:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090610/ap_on_sc/us_sci_diminishing_winds
“The wind, a favorite power source of the green energy movement, seems to be dying down across the United States. And the cause, ironically, may be global warming — the very problem wind power seeks to address.”
“The new study “demonstrates, rather conclusively in my mind, that average and peak wind speeds have decreased over the U.S. in recent decades,” said Michael Mann, director of the Earth System Science Center at Penn State University.
A naysayer is Gavin Schmidt, a NASA climate scientist in New York who said the results conflict with climate models that show no effect from global warming. He also doubts that any decline in the winds that might be occurring has much of an effect on wind power.”
I am a longtime fan of Joe B. It is good to see him on WUWT.
Mike D. (16:41:42)
Isn’t lightning caused by the electric polarity between the ground and water vapor in the air? More water vapor -> more lightning, I thought.
–
Why would colder temps, meaning less water vapor, lead to less lightning (that part makes sense to me) but stronger bolts (which I think is what was implied)?
–
I have never understood dry lightning. I get that there was lightning without rain, but there had to be water vapor aloft or there would have been no lightning, right?
*****************
Forget the water vapor for a minute. Lightning is caused by static electricity. When you have a storm there are rising and falling (warmer and cooler) columns of air. As these columns of air are rapidly lifting and falling they rub together and they gather charge, much they way that you would scuffing your socks across a carpet.
In a storm with a sharper contrast in air mass temperatures, there is increased lift, and subsequently increased lightning charge being built up. Moisture is not required, only a difference in air temperatures is needed to create lift. That is where you can have dry lightning. As long as the air is mixing, it can gather a charge. As far as storms forming where it is colder having more or less lightning, again, that is a function of the level of contrast in air temperatures between the masses.
–
While the atmosphere may be a little more conductive when it is more humid, it is only to a limited extent. My understanding is that once discharge potential(voltage) is reached, the stepped leader establishes a path, and the 50,000ºF bolt has turned the air to plasma in that bolt path, creating a conductive return path. It matters little if the air is wet or dry at 50k F.
In a drier (less conductive) atmosphere there will be a slightly higher voltage potential reached before the stepped leader bolt can be established, but I don’t think that in the grand scheme of things that it would be that much stated as a percentage.
The one place that I see water vapor entering this is that it is thought that the ice crystals in the cloud offer somewhat of an electrical barrier, and increase the capacitance of the cloud formation, permitting increased storage capacity before discharge.
Maybe someone with a better understanding can correct us both and fill in a few gaps.
John Egan (11:19:25) :
There are two far more likely reasons that grain production is down – –
1) Prices have plummeted
2) Very scarce credit during planting season
At this site, most of us apply a principle you’ll find novel: causality. Here’s a link that will get you started in learning about it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causality
I’d like a source on the “very scarce credit.” Because EVERY SINGLE THING I’ve read, including the latest USDA forecasts, is predicting d— near a record low harvest due to PROLONGED WINTER CONDITIONS. See, there’s that pesky causality.
I’d also like to know where prices have “plummeted.” At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, wheat and corn are both skyrocketing. You should go out and buy some wheat at “plummeted” prices – you stand to make a tidy profit selling to the dolts who haven’t gotten the word.
A word to the wise. This site is not part of the uneducated, left wing, echosphere. When you make false assertions about the real world, expect to get embarrassed.
Regarding crops 2009, my farming relatives have been very disappointed in the low germination rates this year due to cool weather.
Modern China cares about as much about “anthropogenic global warming” as Chairman Mao did about providing his population with five-course steak dinners. AGW’s only use, as far as the Chinese are concerned, is as an ingenious device to suck up money and power from the gullible west.
Light rainshowers from a mid winter type “overrunning plume” type system in Nor Cal today.
DAVID WALTON
said “Half baked baloney from a trash talking simpleton”. Don’t be so hard on yourself David, we don’t consider you a nitwit, merely a halfwit.
If parts of the US are going to have to do without a summer this year, what’s the winter going to be like?
More specifically (and personally) what will the Bay Area and Denver be like in December, as that’s where and when I intend to visit this year? Oh, and would it be particularly stupid to catch a train from one to the other at that time of year?
(Bear in mind that I’m English and am trying to uphold my nation’s reputation for eccentricity – I support the Raiders, isn’t that proof enough?)
Mr GG: “…I’m English …I support the Raiders…”
My condolences. That’s the second empire you’ve lost.
Smokey (09:48:55) :
Mr GG: “…I’m English …I support the Raiders…”
My condolences. That’s the second empire you’ve lost.
On the other hand, I found a (Raider) nation 😉
“”” Robert Wood (18:48:11) :
DaveE @17:54:01
Ever notice that the HOT places are always ARID?
You don’t get out much, do you? “””
Well not exactly; I take it you have never stood on a boat out on a typical Tarpon flat in the Florida Keys; or a steam tropical jungle.
Seems like water presence has something to do with it.
Now admittedly the hottest places do tend to be dry deserts;because they don’t have a lot of water vapor in the air; which can block as much as 20% of the incoming solar radiation , so you would get a much higher ground level insolation (that is part of the negative feedback effect that water vapor can have).
But by the same token, at night time, those same arid deserts can get really cold because ther eis no water vapor to keep the infra red radiation from escaping and cooling the ground.
However even over the most arid deserts at night, you still have the full complement of CO2 and other non H2O GHGs. Well too bad they don’t really do much in the way of warming, because they certainly don’t stop the deserts from getting cold at night.
No matter how you cut it; CO2 just isn’t very effective as a green house gas; and by itself has little warming effect; whereas water vapor without CO2 and we would never know the difference.
George
Across the pond here in England, we’ve been having some cold weather, too. Must admit we’ve had five days of about 80 degrees but once again the temperatures have dropped over the past week to the mid-50s (although the temperatures given on TV are those in London which is always about 3 degrees higher than elsewhere). Three days ago there was enough snow in Northern Scotland for a photograph to appear in a paper of a pretty hefty snowman and it was reported that snow had also fallen on the small mountain range called the Penines which runs like a backbone down the sort-of centre of England, ending in the Midlands. Yes, I remember one late May, early June when we had a bit of snow before but that was back in 1975.
Ever notice that whenever the media talks about forests, ice sheets, glaciers, volcanoes, asteroids, tsunamis, hurricanes, etc they always use the line ‘roughly the size of Manhattan’.
Examples of use…
‘This year the planet lost an area of ice roughly the size of Manhattan. If the trend continues within ten years sea levels will rise and engulf an area of land roughly the size of Manhattan!’
‘Unless something urgent is done an asteroid roughly the size of Manhattan will hit an area of Mahattan roughly the size of Manhattan!’
If you want to force the creation of new laws nothing works better than scaring the bejesus out of wealthy New Yorkers.
Here is proof:
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=safari&rls=en-us&q=roughly+the+size+of+manhattan+earthquake&btnG=Search
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=safari&rls=en-us&q=roughly+the+size+of+manhattan+fire&btnG=Search
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=safari&rls=en-us&q=roughly+the+size+of+manhattan+flood&btnG=Search
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=safari&rls=en-us&q=roughly+the+size+of+manhattan+asteroid&btnG=Search
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=safari&rls=en-us&q=roughly+the+size+of+manhattan+volcano&btnG=Search
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=safari&rls=en-us&q=roughly+the+size+of+manhattan+ice&btnG=Search
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=safari&rls=en-us&q=roughly+the+size+of+manhattan+tsunami&btnG=Search
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=safari&rls=en-us&q=roughly+the+size+of+manhattan+nuclear&btnG=Search
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=safari&rls=en-us&q=roughly+the+size+of+manhattan+al+gore&btnG=Search
Lance (01:16:07), Ray B (05:35:46):
Thank you very much for the lessons. Even in my dotage I believe I am capable of learning a new thing or two.
An Inquirer (05:50:56) :
“Regarding crops 2009, my farming relatives have been very disappointed in the low germination rates this year due to cool weather.”
If this year is not good and last year and the year before difficult, then what about next year?
There is good reason to believe that the El Nino will be stillborn and La Nina will return.
See “El Nino. How big? How long?” at http://climatechange1.wordpress.com/
ENSO is climate change in action. You are seeing it as it happens.
I dont know what the rest of the year in Canada will be like but colder temperatures prevailed in the winter as well as the spring. [ICECAP has the post .]
CANADA’S SPRING TEMPERATURE TREND COMPARISON 2006-2009
ENVIORNMENT CANADA-SPRING REGIONAL TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES FROM 1948-2009 TREND BASE
REGION DIFFERENCE [2006-2009]
ATLANTIC CANADA -1.4 C
GREAT LAKES /ST. LAWRENCE -1.1 C
NORTHEASTERN FOREST -3.8 C
NORTHWESTERN FOREST -4.5 C
PRAIRIES -3.1 C
SOUTH BRITISH COLUMBIA MTS -1.6 C
PACIFIC COAST -0.5 C
NORTH BC MTS/YUKON -0.2 C
MACKENZIE DISTRICT -4.1 C
ARCTIC TUNDRA -3.9 C
ARCTIC MTS AND FIORDS -3.0 C
CANADA -3.3 C [WINTER FIGURE WAS [-3.6C]
THE DIFFERENCE IS CALCULATED BY DETERMINING THE NEGATIVE OR POSITIVE SPREAD BETWEEN THE 2006 TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE AND THE 2009 TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE
Temperature Departures for each of the last four year for Canada for spring [March, April, May] over the 1948-2009 base trend line were:
2006 2.9 C
2007 0.5 C
2008 0.4 C
2009 -0.4 C [negative] 45th warmest or 18 Th coldest since 1948
The 2009 spring season for al of Canada was 3.3 C degrees colder than the 2006 spring. Similar 2009 figure for the spring of Northwestern Forest region [north half of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba was [-4.5C] colder than 2006
DATED JUNE 10, 2009
http://www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/ccrm/bulletin/rtable_e.html?region=f&table=temperature&season=Spring&date=2009&rows=62
Steve Schaper (00:13:54) :
“SE Minnesota, eh? Dave Wendt, maybe you can find out what is with the Century High School weather station that is consistently 5-10 degrees higher than the airport or suburban weather stations. (Century is up out of the Zumbro Valley – it -should- be -cooler- (except when there is no wind and a clear sky)”
It should not be any colder at all since it is almost rural. Do you have any idea where the station is on campus? I could check it out for you. BTW, where are you seeing the temps reported?
oops, meant warmer of course.
Thank you Matt V.
Here’s another post from icecap on crop yields threatened by cold weather in Canada.
If this is global warming, the plants just aren’t buying it.
Does this prove that some people (warming alarmists) are stupider than vegetables?
Regards, Allan
Canada frosts the most widespread in recent memory
Tue Jun 9, 2009 1:54pm EDT
By Rod Nickel
WINNIPEG, Manitoba (Reuters) – The multiple frosts that have blanketed Western Canada in the last week are the most widespread in the top canola-growing province of Saskatchewan in at least five years, the Canola Council of Canada said on Tuesday.
Two overnight frosts last week have already resulted in some Saskatchewan farmers reseeding their canola, a Canadian variant of rapeseed, said Jim Bessel, senior agronomy specialist in the province for the industry group Canola Council.
Other farmers are waiting to see growth signs that would suggest their canola plants have survived the frost, which lasted for up to five hours at a stretch. That new growth is slow to appear with generally cool temperatures holding crop development behind schedule.
“We just don’t see a lot of activity happening from a crop development perspective,” Bessel said. “(The extent of frost damage) is a really difficult one to call right now … It’s very erratic.”
In Manitoba, the frost is the worst in memory for its frequency and area covered, said Derwyn Hammond, the province’s senior agronomy specialist for the Canola Council.
“Certainly (it’s) the worst year I’ve seen,” said Hammond, who has worked for the Canola Council for 15 years.
With deadlines for full canola crop insurance ranging between June 10 and 20 in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, Hammond said he expects most farmers will choose not to reseed.
Cool weather may have actually saved some of the new crop that was at such an early growing stage that it wasn’t yet vulnerable to frost, said Doon Pauly, crop specialist for the government of the western province of Alberta.
“It’s the equivalent to a frost in the second or third week of May,” Pauly said. “That’s the bright side.”
The downside of the cool weather is that it has left crops in general well behind schedule, he said. The Alberta canola crop is two to three weeks behind development, Pauly said, while the Canadian Wheat Board estimated on Monday that Western Canada wheat and barley crops are at least 10 days behind.
Fields with frost damage can develop bare pockets or a thinned-down plant population that gives weeds more room to grow, said Pauly, adding that some Alberta areas reported frost as recently as Tuesday morning.
But despite frosts and cool weather, it’s too early to say if canola yields will suffer, he said.
“Canola is so plastic. If the remainder of June we get good moisture and reasonable heat, the yields can recover.”
(Editing by Marguerita Choy)
To Aron (12:24:33):
Thanks for the interesting but lengthy comment — it was roughly the size of Manhattan.
i live in australia, the desert continent
i remember horrendous summers that reached 45 C in my childhood..
this year.. summer was more like autumn [fall]… i think there were 3 hot days, and they sure didn’t reach previous temps.
now, it’s just a few days into winter, and for the first time in my -life-, i had to go outside with a beanie, insulated gloves, a turtleneck, a huge jacket, and boots.. you used to be able to get away with just a sweater.
apparently it’s snowing in places it’s never snowed before in australia.
Statement of Congressman Ron Paul
United States House of Representatives
Statement on Global Warming Petition Signed by 31,478 Scientists
June 4, 2009
* Mr. PAUL. Madam Speaker, before voting on the “cap-and-trade” legislation, my colleagues should consider the views expressed in the following petition that has been signed by 31,478 American scientists:
* “We urge the United States government to reject the global warming agreement that was written in Kyoto, Japan in December, 1997, and any other similar proposals. The proposed limits on greenhouse gases would harm the environment, hinder the advance of science and technology, and damage the health and welfare of mankind.
* There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth’s atmosphere and disruption of the Earth’s climate. Moreover, there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth.”
* Circulated through the mail by a distinguished group of American physical scientists and supported by a definitive review of the peer-reviewed scientific literature, this may be the strongest and most widely supported statement on this subject that has been made by the scientific community. A state-by-state listing of the signers, which include 9,029 men and women with PhD degrees, a listing of their academic specialties, and a peer-reviewed summary of the science on this subject are available at http://www.petitionproiect.org.
* The peer-reviewed summary, “Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide” by A. B. Robinson, N. E. Robinson, and W. Soon includes 132 references to the scientific literature and was circulated with the petition.
* Signers of this petition include 3,803 with specific training in atmospheric, earth, and environmental sciences. All 31,478 of the signers have the necessary training in physics, chemistry, and mathematics to understand and evaluate the scientific data relevant to the human-caused global warming hypothesis and to the effects of human activities upon environmental quality.
* In a letter circulated with this petition, Frederick Seitz–past President of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, President Emeritus of Rockefeller University, and recipient of honorary doctorate degrees from 32 universities throughout the world–wrote:
* “The United States is very close to adopting an international agreement that would ration the use of energy and of technologies that depend upon coal, oil, and natural gas and some other organic compounds.
* This treaty is, in our opinion, based upon flawed ideas. Research data on climate change do not show that human use of hydrocarbons is harmful. To the contrary, there is good evidence that increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is environmentally helpful.
* The proposed agreement we have very negative effects upon the technology of nations throughout the world; especially those that are currently attempting to lift from poverty and provide opportunities to the over 4 billion people in technologically underdeveloped countries.
* It is especially important for America to hear from its citizens who have the training necessary to evaluate the relevant data and offer sound advice.”
* We urge you to sign and return the enclosed petition card. If you would like more cards for use by your colleagues, these will be sent.”
* Madam Speaker, at a time when our nation is faced with a severe shortage of domestically produced energy and a serious economic contraction; we should be reducing the taxation and regulation that plagues our energy-producing industries.
* Yet, we will soon be considering so-called “cap and trade” legislation that would increase the taxation and regulation of our energy industries. “Cap and-trade” will do at least as much, if not more, damage to the economy as the treaty referred by Professor Seitz! This legislation is being supported by the claims of “global warming” and “climate change” advocates–claims that, as demonstrated by the 31,477 signatures to Professor Seitz’ petition, many American scientists believe is disproved by extensive experimental and observational work.
* It is time that we look beyond those few who seek increased taxation and increased
[Page: E1325] GPO’s PDF
regulation and control of the American people. Our energy policies must be based upon scientific truth–not fictional movies or self-interested international agendas. They should be based upon the accomplishments of technological free enterprise that have provided our modern civilization, including our energy industries. That free enterprise must not be hindered by bogus claims about imaginary disasters.
* Above all, we must never forget our contract with the American people–the Constitution that provides the sole source of legitimacy of our government. That Constitution requires that we preserve the basic human rights of our people–including the right to freely manufacture, use, and sell energy produced by any means they devise–including nuclear, hydrocarbon, solar, wind, or even bicycle generators.
* While it is evident that the human right to produce and use energy does not extend to activities that actually endanger the climate of the Earth upon which we all depend, bogus claims about climate dangers should not be used as a justification to further limit the American people’s freedom.
In conclusion, I once again urge my colleagues to carefully consider the arguments made by the 31,478 American scientists who have signed this petition before voting on any legislation imposing new regulations or taxes on the American people in the name of halting climate change. http://www.house.gov/apps/list/speech/tx14_paul/GlobalWarmingJune4.shtml
California Weirdness
weather by seablogger
The cool phase of Pacific decadal oscillation is exerting its most vivid effect on California. I suppose we should not be surprised. In a “normal” warm phase year, upper level high pressure builds over California in May, turning off any remnant rains. By June the high pressure ridge is typically very strong. Any polar lows trying to drop southeast from Alaska are forced to stay offshore, where they slowly decay over open ocean.
In a “normal” year, June weather is hot and dry for much of the Golden State. Along the coast a “marine layer” is sucked ashore by the interior heat. Fog and strong winds keep things chilly. California coastal weather is topographically determined, as the marine layer fingers inland along lower ground, filling the whole of San Fransisco Bay, which is what makes the place famously pleasant.
But this is not a normal year, though it may be the new norm of cold phase PDO. Deep polar troughing has dug repeatedly over California. Unseasonal rains and thunderstorms have occurred. Snow has fallen in the mountains. Clouds have kept the interior cool. All the rhythms of plant and animal life are surely disturbed. The effects on agriculture will increase if the pattern holds.
California has more than its share of “global warming” freaks. How long will they be able to continue telling themselves that warming causes cooling? Liberals tend to be a humorless bunch, and they don’t like being laughed at.
From: Fresh Bilge: http://www.seablogger.com/?p=15039&cpage=1#comment-153506
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20227124.700-supervolcano-may-be-brewing-beneath-mount-st-helens.html
Supervolcano may be brewing beneath Mount St Helens
* 10 June 2009 by David Shiga
* Magazine issue 2712. Subscribe and get 4 free issues.
IS A supervolcano brewing beneath Mount St Helens? Peering under the volcano has revealed what may be an extraordinarily large zone of semi-molten rock, which would be capable of feeding a giant eruption.
Magma can be detected with a technique called magnetotellurics, which builds up a picture of what lies underground by measuring fluctuations in electric and magnetic fields at the surface. The fields fluctuate in response to electric currents travelling below the surface, induced by lightning storms and other phenomena. The currents are stronger when magma is present, since it is a better conductor than solid rock.
Graham Hill of GNS Science, an earth and nuclear science institute in Wellington, New Zealand, led a team that set up magnetotelluric sensors around Mount St Helens in Washington state, which erupted with force in 1980. The measurements revealed a column of conductive material that extends downward from the volcano. About 15 kilometres below the surface, the relatively narrow column appears to connect to a much bigger zone of conductive material.
The column below Mount St Helens appears to connect to a huge zone of conductive material
This larger zone was first identified in the 1980s by another magnetotelluric survey, and was found to extend all the way to beneath Mount Rainier 70 kilometres to the north-east, and Mount Adams 50 kilometres to the east. It was thought to be a zone of wet sediment, water being a good electrical conductor.
However, since the new measurements show an apparent conduit connecting this conductive zone to Mount St Helens – which was undergoing a minor eruption of semi-molten material at the time the measurements were made – Hill and his colleagues now think the conductive material is more likely to be a semi-molten mixture. Its conductivity is not high enough for it to be pure magma, Hill says, so it is more likely to be a mixture of solid and molten rock.
Gary Egbert of Oregon State University in Corvallis, who is a magnetotellurics specialist but not a member of Hill’s team, is cautious about the idea of a nascent supervolcano where Mount St Helens sits. “It seems likely that there’s some partial melt down there,” given that it is a volcanic area, he says. “But part of the conductivity is probably just water.”
If the structure beneath the three volcanoes is indeed a vast bubble of partially molten rock, it would be comparable in size to the biggest magma chambers ever discovered, such as the one below Yellowstone National Park.
Every few hundred thousand years, such chambers can erupt as so-called supervolcanoes – the Yellowstone one did so about 640,000 years ago. These enormous eruptions can spew enough sunlight-blocking ash into the atmosphere to cool the climate by several degrees Celsius.
Could Mount St Helens erupt like this? “A really big, big eruption is possible if it is one of those big systems like Yellowstone,” Hill says. “I don’t think it will be tomorrow, but I couldn’t try to predict when it would happen.”
Further measurements probing the structure of the crust beneath the other volcanoes in the area could help determine if the zone connects to them all, Hill says. He presented his team’s results on 27 May at the Joint Assembly geophysics meeting in Toronto, Canada.
http://www.pvbr.com/Issue_1/pers.htm
The cooling of global warming
By Phil Brennan
My sainted father described common sense as having the good judgment to come in out of the rain. A lot of our self-anointed guardians of all that is good and appropriate are getting drenched these days in a hailstrom of facts they lack the good sense to recognize.
In the face of the simple reality that any warming of the planet that may have been occurring stopped dead a decade ago, to be replaced by a pronounced cooling, these naifs continue to shout from the rooftops that unless we allow them to take drastic action, our godlike planet is about to be barbecued.
Panic is abroad among the global warming fanatics who see their decades-long campaign to convince the world that the planet is warming and only draconian government action can prevent a looming catastrophe from destroying fading away.
Every horrendous occurrence is deplored as somehow the result of AGW (anthroprogenic [human caused] global warming) even the downing of the Air France jetliner for which a Russian scientist found it to be possibly responsible.
All but frothing at the mouth in frustration over the growing disbelief in AGW, Joe Romm of the Climate Progress blog posted a warning from one “Creative Greenius” that those who dissent from the fear of human caused global warming will be severely punished when “an entire generation … will soon be ready to strangle you and your kind while you sleep in your beds.”
Romm removed the quote from his bloc but according to Marc Morano’s Climate Depot he continues to defend the strangling skeptics in their beds comment as being “clearly not a threat but a prediction which he disagrees with ” that people had “somehow misread.”
Despite the increasingly inflamed rhetoric, the fact remains that the planet has entered a cooling phase that to scientists say could last at least 30 years or even usher in a new little, or even big, ice age.
Yet House Democrats are rushing the Waxman-Markey cap and trade bill through the House. The legislation amounts to a $9 trillion tax that will reduce personal consumption by up to $2 trillion by mid-century, according to an analysis by the liberal Brookings Institution. It aims at reducing atmosphereic levels of CO2 in the absurd belief that this benign gas necessary for plant health somehow causes global warming.
Across the pond, reality has set in. According to Benny Peyser ‘All over Europe, the centre-left has been haemorrhaging core voters. The fact that UKIP, an openly climate skeptical party, has beaten Labour to second place is a clear signal. It suggests that any party promoting unpopular climate policies and green taxes that will further increase the cost of energy, transport and travel for ordinary families risks being punished in future elections. As far as Britain is concerned, the Labour government and its green agenda is finished. Let that be a warning to President Obama and other would-be salvationists.”
They aren’t heeding that warning. As far as they are concerned the planet may be demonstrably cooling but global warming remains a deadly threat to the planet they must at our peril act to forestall.
In the meantime, in the balmy month of June, on the 5th it snowed in North Dakota. On June 6 northern England got enough snow to allow kids to build a snow man.
Wrote the Daily Mail “Parts of Britain resembled Siberia today as freakish snow flurries fell in the middle of the summer” … “a phenomenon considered to be ‘remarkable’ so late in the season.”
In the U.S. climate expert Joe Bastardi warns that areas from the northern Plains into the Northeast will have a “year without a summer.”
Under the title “ALASKA’S ICE THICKENS OVER UNUSUAL SUMMER” Climatologist Cliff Harris wrote that “Unusually large amounts of winter snow were followed by abnormally chilly temperatures in June, July and August.
He cited a story by Craig Medred of McClatchy Newspapers who quoted U.S. Geological Survey glaciologist Bruce Molnia as saying “In mid-June, I was surprised to see snow still at sea level in Prince William Sound. On the Juneau Icefield, there was still 20 feet of new snow on the surface of the Taku Glacier in late July. At Bering Glacier, a landslide I am studying, located at about 1,500 feet elevation, did not become snow free until early August. In general, the weather this summer was the worst I have seen in at least 20 years. Never before in the history of a research project dating back to 1946 had the Juneau Icefield witnessed the kind of snow buildup that came this year. It was similar on a lot of other glaciers too.”
Some warming!
Phil Brennan writes for Newsmax.com. He is editor and publisher of Wednesday on the Web (http://www.pvbr.com) and was Washington columnist (Cato) for National Review magazine in the 1960s. He is a trustee of the Lincoln Heritage Institute and a member of the Association For Intelligence Officers.
He can be reached at pvb@pvbr.com.
Orange Punch at it again: http://orangepunch.freedomblogging.com/2009/06/10/gradually-global-warming-myths-fall-away/10049/
Gradually global warming myths fall away
June 10th, 2009, 1:02 pm posted by Mark Landsbaum
It’s hard to keep a worldwide hoax going. Sooner or later there are leaks in the balloon and the hot air seeps out, sort of global-warming style.
Even mainline press accounts increasingly are puncturing the global warming balloon. The Washington Post recently pointed out that Al Gore’s dire predictions of devastating 20-foot rising seas caused by global warming are, well, all wet.
It turns out, says the Post’s David A. Fahrenthold (a reporter, not a commentator), that the latest predicted increase in sea level by 2100 (that’s 91 years from now) might be enough to “submerge a beach chair.” Not exactly civilization ruining, huh?
The story doesn’t stop there. Even the chair’s fate is only a “might” not a certainty, the story notes. Why? Well, for the very reason we’ve been pointing out for about three years: “Scientists say the information comes from computer models which could be wrong.”
Go figure. The question is whether Congress and the White House will shove down our throats hundreds of billions if not trillions of dollars in penalties in order to solve this non-devastating problem before enough people recognize the truth and put a stop to their nonsense.
Just Want Results… (07:44:35) :
E.M.Smith (22:48:42) :
I wouldn’t be so quick to trust MSNBC and CNBC. They give recommendations to buy stocks sometimes and the stock goes down the next day. They also give recommendations to not buy certain stocks and then those stocks go up for a couple weeks. Buyer beware!
Never said I trusted CNBC (and I find MSNBC, well, highly snippable…).
I do trust individual people on CNBC and find Bloomberg generally accurate.
FWIW, it isn’t really the networks fault that their “picks” drop in the next couple of days. This hits all networks and all public stock pickers with a following the same way.
As soon as someone has a “name” (and the major networks are “name” by definition) they join the “news flow”. Someone at Goldman is assigned to watch every single CNBC show. When a ticker is given a “buy”, the staff tell their floor brokers to push the price up (even if they missed that call, the sudden volume inflow on the buy side would cause any smart market maker to juice the price up). Often the demand far exceeds the natural sellers, so the market maker has to “sell short”. The exchange rules require the market maker to make a market but they do not say at what price.
So prices go up to the point where the market maker or floor broker is pretty darned sure they can “buy in” the position later at a lower price. Thus the drop the next day. So it is essential when taking a “tip” from a mass audience show to allow for that. Don’t let the “day trade” pop and drop nick you for 10%… wait a couple of days for a better entry into the (often quite good) stock pick.
Saying don’t buy into something rising can be as simple as excess risk or liking an alternative better.
I hold about 30 positions at any one time, and in a bull market (going up) about 3000 tickers are rising. If I say “don’t buy XOM, buy PBR” that does not mean Exxon will fail to rise. We have rising oil, XOM is going up. BUT you will find that Petrobras has left XOM in the dirt. (PCZ PetroCanada is on a rocket ride too…) I own both PBR and PCZ. I would tell a friend “Don’t buy XOM”. (Partly due to the congress being in session and looking for another industry to destroy right after they get done nuking healthcare…) So for risk and performance reasons, XOM is a “Don’t buy” relative to the alternatives. It can (and most likely will) still go up.
A lot of stuff to keep track of? Yup. Keeps it interesting…
As an example: PBR went up 4% today. It will double over the next few years, to a decade, (pretty much guaranteed due to them finding Billions of bbl of oil offshore). Yet, Joe Terranova on “Fast Money” just gave a recommendation that ~”minerals and oils are over bought” and it’s time to step away from that trade. So what to do?
Well, I can pretty much say PBR will be down tomorrow. 4% pop over, Joe saying get out while it’s good, it’s Friday (oils drop Friday – Tues more than they rise due to the oil inventory report on Wed morning). That’s the easy part. What to do with that information depends on you…
Day trader? Look for a short then cover. (If it opens “gap down” buy, then sell at 2 pm ET).
Trend Trader? Look for a buy next Tuesday / early Wednesday, selling Friday.
Long Term Investor? “Buy The Dips” and hold them.
Already hold PBR (me) as a mid term investment? Probably nothing. I’ve got a good gain in it and will most likely just let it ride through the ripple. I might use some options as insurance, or I might “double on the dip” and sell half at the rebound to “sterilize” the news impact. Basically do a day trade around the core to iron out the ripple. Depends on how bored I am.
Absolute wrong thing to do? Buy at the top of the 4% pop today on the news and sell out at the 4% down mid morning tomorrow… because you heard this guy on the TV…
So back to Joe Bastardi: The networks do a very good job of picking “talent” and that all of them are fighting over Joe Bastardi tells you a great deal. That his reports are generally “spot on” is all you really need to know…
Oh, I probably ought to add:
Having several whole industries move in response to a weather forecast is far different from having a single stock ticker move from a ‘stock pick’.
When Bastardi makes a weather call, and things move, it does not involve the same dynamics …
From Narco to Carbo State http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25623185-661,00.html
Climate laws add to police workload
EXCLUSIVE: FRONTLINE police will be forced to become “carbon cops” under the Government’s blueprint to cut greenhouse emissions.
The Herald Sun can reveal Australian Federal Police agents will have to prosecute a new range of climate offences.
But they are yet to be offered extra resources, stretching the thin blue line to breaking point.
“The Government is effectively saying to us, ‘Ignore other crime types’,” Australian Federal Police Association chief Jim Torr said.
The group had been trying for months, without success, to discuss the issue with Climate Change Minister Penny Wong, he said.
Interpol has warned the carbon market will be irresistible to criminal gangs because of the vast amounts of cash to be made. Possible rorts include under-reporting of carbon emissions by firms and bogus carbon offset schemes.
“If someone is rorting it by even 1 per cent a year, we’re talking about many, many millions of dollars,” Mr Torr said.
Ms Wong’s office said AFP agents would be expected to enter premises and request paperwork to monitor firms’ emissions reductions. They would act on the 30-strong Australian Climate Change Regulatory Authority’s orders.
It said the authority could appoint staff members or police as inspectors.
She said the Department of Climate Change had spoken to the AFPA and the parties would talk again. Carbon trading involves carbon emissions rights buying and selling. Businesses can offset emissions by investing in climate-friendly projects, or carbon credits.
Ms Wong’s office said provisions had been made to ensure compliance. “Inspectors may enter premises and exercise other monitoring powers,” she said. “The inspectors may ask questions and seek the production of documents. There is provision for the issue of monitoring warrants by magistrates.”
The AFP’s 2855 sworn agents are involved in law enforcement in Australia and overseas, investigating terrorist threats, drug syndicates, people trafficking, fraud and threats against children.
Mr Torr said breaking carbon trading laws would be like breaking other laws. “These offences will constitute another federal crime type, along with narcotics importing, people smuggling and all the rest of it, that the AFP will be expected to police,” he said. “I can see very complex, covert investigations . . . a lot of scientific expertise required.”
The Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme is facing Senate defeat unless it can secure the support of key cross-benchers or the Opposition.
Opposition climate change spokesman Andrew Robb said the scheme was problematic.
Ron,
The super volcano article sounds like an alarmist article. Most of the real data indicates that magma is NOT a likely situation (more likely water) and then the article goes to state that IF the situation is magma then it could be a catastrophe. Must have taken this from the AGW playbook.
Richard M (06:31:43) :
Ron,
The super volcano article sounds like an alarmist article. Most of the real data indicates that magma is NOT a likely situation (more likely water) and then the article goes to state that IF the situation is magma then it could be a catastrophe. Must have taken this from the AGW playbook.
Richard,
You are probably right.
http://www.newscientist.com is in AW alarmism for years on a role now.
1) There was first in the 1970’s the globaloney cooling scam (see e.g. Newsweek April 28 1975 on the internet); the government-paid scientists (90% of them are rejects of private enterprise) recommended to fight the new ice age by sending our war planes to cover the polar ice with soot in order to increase solar heat and prevent crushing of New York skyscrapers by the new glaciers;
2) When that did not work we had the globaloney warming hoax in the 1990’s, proclaimed by mainly the same government-paid scientists (Dr. Hansen of the NOAA, for example); to prevent the massive heating, fires, flooding of coastal cities, disappearance of Florida, California, and Caribbean islands, massive hurrucanes, global famine, and other catastrophic events we should nationalize oil and gas and coal and electricity companies;
3) after 11 years of considerable cooling we are now faced with the climate change flimflam where whatever happens with our climate we should nationalize oil and gas and coal and electricity companies; and why not our banks, car companies while we are at it. To prevent this catastrophe the best vehicle presumably is international agreements enforced by the United Nations world government.
As for the influence of carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas: on a normal day the atmoshere contains 10,000 ppm (parts per million) of water vapor and about 300 ppm of carbon dioxide. The government-paid scientists say that an increase of 100 ppm of CO2 over the next 50 years will result in a catastrophic warming. The thermal absorptivity of water vapor is 4 times larger than that of carbon dioxide; it follows that the CO2 increase will increase the overall thermal absorptivity of the mixture by about 1/4 of one percent. The production of methane from livestock and the swamps (or as the enviro-nazis call those “wetlands”) vastly surpasses the influence of CO2.
There is the Global Warming Petition Project (see Internet) where 31,478 US independent scientists declared that there is no anthropogenic (human-caused) global warming; of these 9,029 are scientists with PhD degrees. Our enviro-nazis tried to sabotage this effort by submiiting phony names with phoney degrees – and then claimed the whole effort by the Petition scientists was a fraud. It took us 3 years and a lot of private money to verify the credentials of all the signatories and clean up the Petition of those saboteurs. See also Manhattan Declaration with more such signatories, plus a large number of scientific groups from other countries who state the same.
I am one of these signatories, MS and PhD degrees from UCLA, with majors in thermodynamics and heat & mass transfer.
I think to fight this communist attempt to secure a world government should not be fought on the narrow grounds of more taxes – that is the losing proposition; where about 50% of the population is on some kind of welfare we will always be outvoted. The battle should be fought and won on the firm scientific basis.
SCAM – HOAX – FLIMFLAM!!!
Marc Jeric
Concern for the Canadian 2oo9 crops grow due to the cold spring [delayed start] and lack of moisture .2oo9 Spring was the 3rd driest on record [1948-2009]for the Prairies. Historicaly the summers were of lower than average moisture [by 5-15 %] during negative PDO years in Canada like during the 1950-1960 but picked up in the 1970’s.
http://www.thestarphoenix.com/news/todays-paper/Crop+concern+grows/1687952/story.html
Christopher Booker in Saturday Telegraph – Crops Under Stress
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/5525933/Crops-under-stress-as-temperatures-fall.html
Crops under stress as temperatures fall
Our politicians haven’t noticed that the problem may be that the world is not warming but cooling, observes Christopher Booker.
By Christopher Booker
Published: 6:04PM BST 13 Jun 2009
For the second time in little over a year, it looks as though the world may be heading for a serious food crisis, thanks to our old friend “climate change”. In many parts of the world recently the weather has not been too brilliant for farmers. After a fearsomely cold winter, June brought heavy snowfall across large parts of western Canada and the northern states of the American Midwest. In Manitoba last week, it was -4ºC. North Dakota had its first June snow for 60 years.
There was midsummer snow not just in Norway and the Cairngorms, but even in Saudi Arabia. At least in the southern hemisphere it is winter, but snowfalls in New Zealand and Australia have been abnormal. There have been frosts in Brazil, elsewhere in South America they have had prolonged droughts, while in China they have had to cope with abnormal rain and freak hailstorms, which in one province killed 20 people.
None of this has given much cheer to farmers. In Canada and northern America summer planting of corn and soybeans has been way behind schedule, with the prospect of reduced yields and lower quality. Grain stocks are predicted to be down 15 per cent next year. US reserves of soya – used in animal feed and in many processed foods – are expected to fall to a 32-year low.
In China, the world’s largest wheat grower, they have been battling against the atrocious weather to bring in the harvest. (In one province they even fired chemical shells into the clouds to turn freezing hailstones into rain.) In north-west China drought has devastated crops with a plague of pests and blight. In countries such as Argentina and Brazil droughts have caused such havoc that a veteran US grain expert said last week: “In 43 years I’ve never seen anything like the decline we’re looking at in South America.”
In Europe, the weather has been a factor in well-below average predicted crop yields in eastern Europe and Ukraine. In Britain this year’s oilseed rape crop is likely to be 30 per cent below its 2008 level. And although it may be too early to predict a repeat of last year’s food shortage, which provoked riots from west Africa to Egypt and Yemen, it seems possible that world food stocks may next year again be under severe strain, threatening to repeat the steep rises which, in 2008, saw prices double what they had been two years before.
There are obviously various reasons for this concern as to whether the world can continue to feed itself, but one of them is undoubtedly the downturn in world temperatures, which has brought more cold and snow since 2007 than we have known for decades.
Three factors are vital to crops: the light and warmth of the sun, adequate rainfall and the carbon dioxide they need for photosynthesis. As we are constantly reminded, we still have plenty of that nasty, polluting CO2, which the politicians are so keen to get rid of. But there is not much they can do about the sunshine or the rainfall.
It is now more than 200 years since the great astronomer William Herschel observed a correlation between wheat prices and sunspots. When the latter were few in number, he noted, the climate turned colder and drier, crop yields fell and wheat prices rose. In the past two years, sunspot activity has dropped to its lowest point for a century. One of our biggest worries is that our politicians are so fixated on the idea that CO2 is causing global warming that most of them haven’t noticed that the problem may be that the world is not warming but cooling, with all the implications that has for whether we get enough to eat.
It is appropriate that another contributory factor to the world’s food shortage should be the millions of acres of farmland now being switched from food crops to biofuels, to stop the world warming, Last year even the experts of the European Commission admitted that, to meet the EU’s biofuel targets, we will eventually need almost all the food-growing land in Europe. But that didn’t persuade them to change their policy. They would rather we starved than did that. And the EU, we must always remember, is now our government – the one most of us didn’t vote for last week.
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