David Archibald writes to tell me that the IMF has hit “rock bottom” and may go lower still. Watching the IMF is a good indicator of the activity of the Sun’s internal magnetic dynamo. Looking at this graph from Archibald, and Lief’s graph below one could conclude that the sun’s inner magnetics are quieter than any time in the last 90+ years.
First a bit of a primer to help our readers understand what the IMF is.
This is from SpaceWeather.com
During solar minimum the Sun’s magnetic field, like Earth’s, resembles that of an iron bar magnet, with great closed loops near the equator and open field lines near the poles. Scientists call such a field a “dipole.” The Sun’s dipolar field is about as strong as a refrigerator magnet, or 50 gauss. Earth’s magnetic field is 100 times weaker.
During the years around solar maximum (2000 and 2001 are good examples) spots pepper the face of the Sun. Sunspots are places where intense magnetic loops — hundreds of times stronger than the ambient dipole field — poke through the photosphere. Sunspot magnetic fields overwhelm the underlying dipole; as a result, the Sun’s magnetic field near the surface of the star becomes tangled and complicated.
The Sun’s magnetic field isn’t confined to the immediate vicinity of our star. The solar wind carries it throughout the solar system. Out among the planets we call the Sun’s magnetic field the “Interplanetary Magnetic Field” or “IMF.” Because the Sun rotates (once every 27 days) the IMF has a spiral shape — named the “Parker spiral” after the scientist who first described it.
Here is another view of the Parker Spiral. Our own Leif Svalgaard had a hand in this I believe:
Guest Post by David Archibald
There has been one view that the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) has a floor of 4 nanoTeslas below which it cannot go. The value of the last 27 day average was 3.3, as shown in the graph below:
So far in 2009 there have been individual days as low as 1.8 nanoTeslas, so there may be no physical reason why a monthly average close to 2 is not possible. It seems that the Sun’s “magneticness” drives everything, and in that case the IMF data suggests that solar activity is not even feeling bottom yet.
Leif has a plot of the IMF all the way back to 1840:
Click for larger image. Source: http://www.leif.org/research/Erl75.png
From Leif’s graph, it appears that the last time the IMF got this low was in 1913 during that lull in solar activity.
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By Svensmark’s cosmoclimatology theory, a low Interplanetary Magnetic Field will allow more galactic cosmic rays into earth’s atmosphere, causing more ions, causing more low level clouds which reflect more sunlight which will cool the earth, and also cause more precipitation. See: A brief summary of cosmoclimatology Summary of a review article on cosmoclimatology by Henrik Svensmark, Danish National Space Center, published in Astronomy & Geophysics, February 2007.
Indeed “Change” is coming! Time to invest in long underwear factories.
This is just me eyeballing the chart, admittedly with a single point, but given the large spike around 1992, and then the huge El Nino in 1998, have there been any correlation/lag studies on this index with temperature (other than a simple note on the chart that shows the 70s cooling period)?
I have no good scientific reason to explain why the two are correlated, but a 6-ish year lag seems to have enough merit for further study.
And if that’s the case, I’m moving from Wisconsin by 2015. Sheesh. I hope there’s nothing to that.
(mosd, Feel free to snip the rest of this comment if you don’t want it this add-on:)By the way, I invite people to guess the NOAA anomaly here: http://digitaldiatribes.wordpress.com/2009/06/02/the-noaa-game-guess-the-anomaly/
I’ve posted all the May climate maps and was just interested to see whether or not this month’s anomaly will seem to make sense in relation. I decided to make it a little contest, so head on over, look at the maps, and submit your best guess…
I know I have posted this video probably in 4 other threads. I think not everyone is aware of it though. It it speaks directly to this topic. And it does it in very simple terms.
5 part YouTube series featuring Henrik Svensmark :
Regards,
The commenter formerly known as ‘Just Want Truth…’—I want results now
“The Interplanetary Magnetic Field is at the lowest point since 1966”
I have to ask. Is that good or bad?
REPLY: Update – Within a couple of minutes of posting I changed the title upon discovery of Leif’s IMF graph to read “1913”. As for good/bad? It depends on your perspective I suppose. If you are a satellite operator, a quiet sun is a good thing. – Anthony
Just Want Results… (07:41:08) :
The Henrik Svensmark, “The Cloud Mystery” should be played on The Science Channel. There is no reason why it should not be. It is fascinating science and belongs out in the public.
Does anyone know the procedure for getting a documentary aired on that channel? I will do what I can to help.
Question: How does one estimate IMF for the 19th century without reference to the sunspot number? (If the SSN plays any part in calculating the estimate, then a correlation is to be expected, of course.)
Unless the AGW camp is right about CO2…It might get a bit chilly for a while.
Great post Dr. Archibald!
The Diatribe Guy (07:35:37) :
This is just me eyeballing the chart, admittedly with a single point, but given the large spike around 1992, and then the huge El Nino in 1998, have there been any correlation/lag studies on this index with temperature (other than a simple note on the chart that shows the 70s cooling period)?
Look at this:
http://www.giurfa.com/scafetta.jpg
slide 15 from:
Nicola Scafetta´s paper:
http://yosemite.epa.gov/ee/epa/wkshp.nsf/vwpsw/84E74F1E59E2D3FE852574F100669688/$file/scafetta-epa-2009.pdf
That is quite an apparent change. Thinking of the recent sea ice sensor problems, are we sure that this is real, not sensor created?
There has been talk in previous thread of the changes to part of the EM spectrum. Is there a list anywhere of what metrics are available at the moment and how these are changing with the recent minimum? It would be interesting to see where other changes are occurring.
Space weather isn’t climate….lol
“The Sun’s dipolar field is about as strong as a refrigerator magnet, or 50 gauss.”
A value of 12 Gauss is more correct for 1976, 1986, 1996, but is now only half that, some 7 Gauss.
The IMF for the last rotation is always a bit dubious because it is based on incomplete data [18 days out of 27], but there is a more serious problem with the latest OMNI data, that causes the values to be too low by about half a nT. Earlier, data from the ACE spacecraft [spacecraft ID = 71 in the OMNI database] were used, but since late in 2008 they have switched to the Wind spacecraft (ID =51) which has this systematic difference. We shall see how that plays out. The field strength for the past four years [based on ACE] has been: 5.097, 4.493, 4.200, and 2009 so far 4.108 [up until today], so no big drop. Geomagnetic data also suggests a value closer to that of 2008.
What is of interest is that the IMF [and the Sun’s magnetic field] now is where it was a century ago. As we said in our 2005 paper on the long-term evolution of the IMF http://www.leif.org/research/The%20IDV%20index%20-%20its%20derivation%20and%20use.pdf :
“On the basis of a consideration of Bartels’ historical u index of geomagnetic activity, we devise an equivalent index that we refer to as the interdiurnal variability (IDV). The IDV index has the interesting and useful property of being highly correlated with the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field (B; R2 = 0.75) and essentially unaffected by the solar wind speed (V; R2 = 0.01) as measured by spacecraft. This enables us to obtain the variation of B from 1872 to the present, providing an independent check on previously reported results for the evolution of this parameter. We find that solar cycle average B increased by 25% from the 1900s to the 1950s and has been lower since. If predictions for a small solar cycle 24 bear out, solar cycle average B will return to levels of 100 years ago during the coming cycle(s).”
And as David points out this has come to pass. In fact, solar cycle 23 has turned out very much like solar cycle 13, and SC24 may look like SC14. The transition 23-24 is very much like 13-14, so we are down to values not seen since 1901-1902. This is of great interest for all kinds of reasons. In the http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/30/scientists-issue-unprecedented-forecast-of-next-sunspot-cycle/#comment-139430 thread I draw attention to a very new paper in GRL, that concludes that “A comparison with sunspot and neutron records confirms that ice core 10Be reflects solar Schwabe cycle variations, and continued 10Be variability suggests cyclic solar activity throughout the Maunder and Spörer grand solar activity minima. Recent 10Be values are low; however, they do not indicate unusually high recent solar activity compared to the last 600 years.”. See my comment on this over there.
This is so cool. Or should I say – chilling.
Tom (08:00:45) :
Question: How does one estimate IMF for the 19th century without reference to the sunspot number? (If the SSN plays any part in calculating the estimate, then a correlation is to be expected, of course.)
See http://www.leif.org/research/The%20IDV%20index%20-%20its%20derivation%20and%20use.pdf and http://www.leif.org/research/IAGA2008LS-final.pdf
My appologies for an off topic question but can anyone explain the blip in the ASMR-E Ice extent graph which occurs at this date in several of the past years?
REPLY: Seasonal maintenance adjustment for meltwater on top of ice. – Anthony
How is it going the Ap index?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/01/04/solar-geomagnetic-ap-index-now-at-lowest-point-in-its-history/
Would this mean an eventual polarity change in the earth’s magnetic field?
Anyway we are broke already 🙂
Well now I have a mental picture of Leif Svalgaard in his office sitting on a swivel chair so he can rotate around while looking down on that crazy Parker spiral; maybe you should get a motor drive for your chair, Leif.
This sort of information from Dave, and what Leif constantly feeds us, is both entertaining, and highly informative.
We may be comfortable thinking of our sun, as simply the blowtorch putting out “heat”, but it clearly interracts with earth in other ways, and it seems clear, at least to me, that some of these peripheral mechanisms have a lot more influence than we think.
I don’t think Svensmark is claiming that the cosmic ray effect is all that controls earth’s climate; but I think we ignore the solar magnetism/cosmic ray/cloud cover mechanism at our peril; it does affect our climate/weather conditions, whther we want to believe that or not.
In any case; the real problem is not whether CO2 or clouds or cosmic rays are the major factor in lcimate change; the real problem is this insane belief that the climate change is somehow significant. It isn’t !
So get over it; the climate has always changed; it always will change; we aren’t in control of it, and we won’t ever be in control of it.
The best we can hope to achieve, is to understand the factors that do affect the climate, so we can look ahead as we adapt.
According to all the AGW catastrophe scenarios; if we implemented the most Draconian CO2 elimination controls possible; such as a total and immediate cessation of the burning of either fossil or any other kinds of carbonaceous fuels, world wide, in 50 years, the global temperature anomaly change would be imperceptible in the noise level of Hansen’s GISStemp.
If there are any SETI fans here; you might as well wrap things up; because there isn’t any intelligent life out there in the universe. Intelligence is just Mother Nature’s latest gimmic in the search for survivability; and there’s not a shred of evidence that intelligence works as a survival mechanism; and that is the whole premise on which SETI is based.
Well some of us are living in a country, that once was the greatest survival experiment ever conducted on earth; and that country is now deliberately committing national suicide; both economically, and philosophically; and instead of shrinking in horror at the prospect, everyone is out there cheering the destroyers on.
No there isn’t any intelligent life anywhere in this universe.
George
Another clue to help in our understanding of some very complex interactions in our solar system. Great stuff. Imagine what we will understand by the year 2100. Not the 2100 in ABC’s version. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ I wonder how many people actually believe the extrapolations in that show? Still feeling nauseous almost a day out from viewing such rubbish. The desperation is palpable. One of the hardest things to admit is “I was wrong”. I do not believe we need “Pamela’s Tank” to prevail. A single blade of grass can push up through asphalt by exerting constant pressure and endurance. It may be awhile before we win the day, and sadly, the juggernaut of cap and enslave seems to be unstoppable at this point, but we must persevere against seemingly insurmountable odds. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~As a youngster, I was always fascinated by electromagnets. I made several dozen in my youth. Unseen forces acting on objects has an appeal that many of you may be able to relate. I intend to keep my youthful curiosity until my final day.
Cathy (08:28:08) : “This is so cool. Or should I say – chilling.”
If it is chilling, I’m moving also. Hope we know before the housing market spikes again and I need to buy a house in a warmer location.
Let’s stick with “This is so cool.”
if magnectic fields influence cloud formation then this should be reflected in the ground based tsi data
That Svensmark & his colleagues have done a good job. Fantastic show! I was embarrassed by the guy from the Met Office who appeared to interupt Svensmark in full flow before apparently walking off, which professionally speaking was utterly appalling – we had a similar “professional” incident some years ago at a local level & the interuptor – who wasn’t actually a professional engineer, had the Riot Act read out to him, politely, after the meeting. Is there a dvd available anywhere?
Sadly, the only way we can see this in the UK is via You Tube, or maybe Channel 4, although the Ministry of Truth would have something to say about such “irresponsible” programme making, & the BBC would NEVER broadcast such shamless & vile atheistic propaganda, clearly from foreign oil sponsored terrorists who must be banned. I tell you it’s like living in Puritan England at times! Well done Just Want Results!
AtB
“Corrected” data eh? Corrected for what?
How is the data for IMF pre 1960s estimated? By sunspot count? There does appear to be a correlation (3 cycles) in the first graph between 1978 and 2009, but from 1966 – 1977 the trend is flat.
This is indeed an interesting deep solar minimum, and the debate about the effects of it on Earth will heat up, but one thing is for certain; change is coming.
We must be patient, time will reveal the outcome!
So many cycles.
So many patterns.
So little time.
And what looked like some light lunchtime reading has turned into a heavy meal, thanks to the good Dr. Svalgaard.
You’d think this was some kind of science blog already with the recent spate of thought inducing articles.
@ur momisugly just want results
CERN CLOUD update:
http://cdsweb.cern.ch/record/1172365/files/SPSC-SR-046.pdf
“No there isn’t any intelligent life anywhere in this universe.”
current company excepted, of course.
George, I must firmly disagree with you ( first time ever!! ) regarding intelligent life elsewhere. The sad part is, that neither of us has any proof either way. It will be a long time before there is any definitive proof. If there is no intelligent life anywhere else, it seems “an incredible waste of space”. Was it Carl Sagan who said this? One may also argue that there is no intelligent life here,.