Guest post by Steven Goddard
One month ago, Secretary of Energy Dr. Steven Chu warned of apocalyptic drought in California.
“We’re looking at a scenario where there’s no more agriculture in California.” And, he added, “I don’t actually see how they can keep their cities going” either.“
USA today warned :
Calif. facing worst drought in modern history
Almost immediately after Dr. Chu’s pronouncement, the rain and snow started in earnest. As of today, all California Snowtel stations report normal snow depth and water content, as do all stations in Colorado where California gets much of their water from.
The combination of the Gore Effect , the Hansen Effect, and the Chu Effect may just save us from climate Armageddon. People in the AGW camp commonly leverage the power of symbolism, like swimming Polar Bears. Below is some good symbolism from Kirkwood, California – taken yesterday.
Over eight feet of new snow earlier in the week at Kirkwood provides an incredible final stop of The North Face Masters of Snowboarding
http://www.crsportsnews.com/?id=786048&keys=Dewey-Baker-Kirkwood-Northface
BTW – Polar bears love to swim – when they are not terrified by Greenpeace helicopters flying overhead.
http://www.animalpicturegallery.net/animal-picture-polar-bear-swimming2-ucumari-animalpicture.jpg
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yes the ah Chu effect!
I must be color blind but there are at least 54 squares showing less than 90%. This does not equate to “ all California Snowtel stations report normal snow depth and water content”, at least according to my eyesight. The tabular report for California looks like this:
CALIFORNIA
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN ……………………. 4 of 4 80 94
TRUCKEE RIVER ………………………….. 8 of 8 88 92
LAKE TAHOE …………………………….. 8 of 8 90 92
CARSON RIVER …………………………… 5 of 9 93 98
WALKER RIVER …………………………… 5 of 6 89 93
KLAMATH ……………………………….. 9 of 10 95 89
which, while showing near normal, has no averages over 100%.
Here in Silicon Valley, my neighbor arduously mowed his lawn yesterday (in full sun). Mine is shady and still too wet; I figure I’ll scythe it eventually. Maybe Mr. Chu would like to come help? It is nicely damp out there. The peach trees are in full bloom and glorious. Lemons are molding on the trees. It isn’t anything like winter of 82-83 when you could kayak to the market, but the plants are happy.
I’m curious about the Snotel average to which current data are compared — over what span of time is the average calculated? Are they using only the Snotel numbers since 1980, or are they including the precip numbers from the mid-1930’s? (Did I read that correctly? Visually impaired and their site is a bit hard for me to see.) Nice table of precip by watershed — the farm in Montana looks to be doing well.
I just checked the basins that feed into California (some of those basins start outside that state but drain into California, as is the case for many states) for myself, and you guys are doing a bit better than Oregon and Washington! Sounds like global warming is working for you guys. Granted, some of your grapes have frozen, but you’ll have plenty of reservoir water to start another orchard. Might I suggest winter apples.
Actually –
As far as skiing, the most of the snow was “Sierra Cement” –
Wet and heavy – which means that it has even more water content.
The most dramatic increase was at Folsom Reservoir –
Where water storage more than doubled.
Folsom is now 104% of it 30-year average.
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/jspplot/jspPlotServlet.jsp?sensor_no=2726&end=03/08/2009+19:59&geom=small&interval=30&cookies=cdec02
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/reservoirs/RES
Hmmmm, I wonder how we can get Mr. Chu to say that Texas is going to dry up and blow away?
When Obama gives a speech the Dow drops 1/10 of a point per word.
What we need to figure out is how to keep Chu talking and Obama not talking.
(I hope he runs out of words before we run out of points.)
Uh Chu!
Bless you
“The combination of the Gore Effect , the Hansen Effect, and the Chu Effect may just save us from climate Armageddon”.
Steven,
Thanks for the posting.
The Gore effect has made it to Wikipedia.
The Hanson- and Chu Effect are nominated.
We should send USA today this posting as a press release.
Their readers could use some positive news these days.
Tim L – because of you, I have just had to add WUWT to my list of sites to not read while eating or drinking. I thought I was safe here – and now I have milk and cookie up my nose.
Were any of these people (Gore, Hansen, Chu, etc.) ever any smarter
than they now appear to be? Perhaps Gore’s lack any scientific training might excuse him as merely a bumbler but Chu and Hansen?
Given Messrs. Chu and Hansen’s unassailable credentials what could possibly account for their recent statements and/or behavior? This is a serious question. I find their activities utterly astonishing.
It isn’t just California.
Seen on Icecap.
Mike Bryant (19:07:25) :
Hmmmm, I wonder how we can get Mr. Chu to say that Texas is going to dry up and blow away?
Texas, unlike California, is not a victim state and will not put up with Mr. Chu’s paternal sympathies.
Just like the economic recovery…
Washington Political Response…
“…I did not mean any time soon, I believe this will happen…sometime, in the future, maybe sooner or perhaps later, but I see it in the distance, not too far… if you wait long enough it will happen.. plus we inherited this climate from Bush, next year when we are in control of the climate things will be different..”
Jeff Coatney (19:18:25) said :
Given Messrs. Chu and Hansen’s unassailable credentials what could possibly account for their recent statements and/or behavior? This is a serious question. I find their activities utterly astonishing.
Couldn’t agree more.
There’s a simple, very old explanation, although most folks find it corny:
BIBLICAL levels of HUBRIS.
And we’re talking Old Testament here. see: Babel, Tower of.
What accounts for many of the statements coming from the Warming Alarmist is the fact that if you believe that civilzation is coming to an end in 100 months you must demand unlimited actions and spending RIGHT NOW. You therefore are imprtant and your words are important. This is front-page stuff, folks. If you are a normal scientist you want more infomation and a discussion of the situation. Now, which would you rather be?
BTW –
The Snowtel map isn’t the best to use for a post on California since CDEC (overseeing the vast majority of California’s watershed) is not included.
Here’s a CDEC set of graphs – but, alas, no map.
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/snow/PLOT_SWC
Please don’t gloat. The weather gods have been kind in the last few years. Again, please don’t gloat!
I don’t want to jinx anything!
harlie98,
Since when does “normal” mean over 100%????
Normal is a range, as I’m sure you must know. Below a certain range is defined as “drought”, within that range would be “normal”.
I’m reminded of the drought we had in Alberta a few years back. Almost daily we had the catastrophic predictions, warnings, cries to change how we use water, how MANMADE climate change was the cause and we’d never get back to anything approaching normal again, etc. The drought broke a few years back, and we’ve been at “normal” precip since. Funny how I NEVER HEARD ABOUT IT AGAIN. Once the news-selling story was gone, the media just moved on as if nothing had happened.
I was beginning to wonder if I was the only one noticing the constant rain California has been getting lately. News article after news article about how bad the drought was getting and every day I checked the national radar to see California completely covered in precipitation. Rain along the coast, snow at higher elevations. I was expecting at any moment the collision of drought and mud slide reports.
After I pointed out the radar evidence to my friends, we’ve all been getting a charge out of the daily drumbeat of doom and gloom in our local newspapers. By the time the reports are passed through the wires coast to coast, there’s a double dose of propaganda worked into the wording. Water rationing, taxing by the teaspoonfull, Arnold dispatching SWAT teams to households that flush too often… It just gets sillier every day!
Someone asked another question I’ve had for some time. If there’s drought every year from February to July, then at some point, drought becomes the standard and not the exception. How many years must the rain pattern repeat itself before it’s considered average or ‘the norm?’ For the last few years, I’ve been getting the feeling that what the authorities report as normal or expected rainfall amounts have less to do with historical records and more to do with what is desired. I don’t remember the last time we’ve had as much rain as is expected to fall on my hometown in the Spring. Shouldn’t the expectation begin to show a drier trend to reflect what is now the norm?
According to 2000 years of tree-ring data by Cook in my area ( just south of the Yolla Bolly/Middle Eel Wilderness) 90% of normal is NOT a drought. 1977, yes, that qualifies. Back to back 1977 type events occured 16 times in 2 millenia. 2008/9 is not a drought.
Shasta Reservior came up 50 feet and Lake Oroville came up 70 feet last week alone. Poor Trinity came up zero, because they take the water destined for Eureka, CA on the Pacific Coast and pump it over to Whiskeytown Reservoir just west of Redding, CA. There, the water is used for such purposes as being sold to Bella Vista golf courses and Shasta College @ur momisugly $50k/acre foot to water lawns, etc. The farmers can only be charged $5k/ acre foot so the water is sold to the highest bidder.
KHSL Chico got ahold of the story, and the rural folks of No. CA being very dependent on agriculture for thier economy are outraged. Still, the State of CA insists on drought State of Emergency to cash in.
The madness grows in Sacramento.
And, Mr. Chu is the one who primed the pump for this porkout that seeks to bash food production with his irresponsible statement.
The northern portion of California, along with all the trampled Sierra Nevada counties and the eastern desert counties would dearly love to split the unwieldy State and/or join neighboring Nevada/Utah who are well-versed at handling rural communities. Anything to get away from the lunacy of Sacramento once and for all.
Twice before Congress to split the State, once pre-Civil War and once pre WWII. The prerequisite agreements were made at the State level, the measures never voted on at the Federal level.
Even Southern California would be better off on it’s own.
So, keep it up “Mr. Chu”, you’re doing just fine.
Keep feeding the Sacramento Madness and keep crying drought.
AKD:
Hey, if you need water, just fire up Chu and you are good to go.
Rain follows his speech like snow follows Gore & Hansen.
How’d they do that?
Maybe we should look into cloning Chu. He would be a national treasure if this keeps up. Call him the “Rainmaker”.
Due to the looming drought, California’s Governator Schwarzennegger declared on Feb 27, 2009, a state of emergency. (see link below for full text and official comments).
A few of the Whereas-es in the official proclamation:
“WHEREAS rainfall levels statewide for the 2008-2009 water year are 24 percent below average as of the February 1, 2009 measurement; and
WHEREAS the second snow pack survey of the 2009 winter season indicated that snow pack water content is 39 percent below normal; and
WHEREAS as of February 23, 2009, storage in the state’s reservoir system is at a historic low, with Lake Oroville 70 percent below capacity, Shasta Lake 66 percent below capacity, Folsom Lake 72 percent below capacity, and San Luis Reservoir 64 percent below capacity; and
WHEREAS low water levels in the state’s reservoir system have significantly reduced the ability to generate hydropower, including a 62 percent reduction in hydropower generation at Lake Oroville from October 1, 2008 to January 31, 2009; and…”
Among other things, the Executive Order states:
“18. By March 30, 2009, DWR [Dept of Water Resources] shall provide me with an updated report on the state’s drought conditions and water availability. If the emergency conditions have not been sufficiently mitigated, I will consider issuing additional orders, which may include orders pertaining to the following:
(a) institution of mandatory water rationing and mandatory reductions in water use;
(b) reoperation of major reservoirs in the state to minimize impacts of the drought;
(c) additional regulatory relief or permit streamlining as allowed under the Emergency Services Act; and
(d) other actions necessary to prevent, remedy or mitigate the effects of the extreme drought conditions.”
The Governator further requested that:
I FURTHER REQUEST THAT:
19. All urban water users immediately increase their water conservation activities in an effort to reduce their individual water use by 20 percent.”
http://gov.ca.gov/press-release/11556/
Meanwhile, construction on the desalination plant in Carlsbad (near San Diego) is delayed until another hearing in April, 2009. That should push the startup date to the end of 2011, possibly into 2012.
California needs to admit it is no longer prudent nor possible to rely on rain or snow, and to convince the federal government to devote money to the National Excess Water Transport Aqueduct Project, NEWTAP. This would use wind-power to pump river water from the Missouri and Mississippi uphill into the Colorado river in New Mexico.
This Link
harlie98
You know…don’t split hairs about snow pack being near normal or just shy of it. Bottom line is that Lake Superior iced over AGAIN…and Lake Mead is running at 172% input over average. And the Artic seems to be doing just fine this year and last. So, you can argue over snowpack…plus or minus the noise factor…but the bottom line is that the normal cyclic snow pack is just that: cyclic.
Relax. Go skiiing. There will be plenty of the white stuff until May or June. And there are great sales for snowboards and skis going on right now due to the economic collapse. So enjoy!
I like to tell this little story for people who weren’t around in California in the 70’s. I bought my 1st home in Sunnyvale in 1976, just in time for the 76-77 drought season. Some places had water rationing. I collected my washing machine water in a plastic trash can to water the garden. Doom and gloom predictions were everywhere. There were predictions that it would take years if not decades of average rainfall for our water supplies to recover. Fall 1977 started out dry. It looked bad. Then came January 1978 and I recorded rainfall for 21 straight days. The reservoirs filled. The drought was over. The doom and gloom disappeared from the media.
The problem in this state is that we don’t have enough storage. We depend on 100% of average nearly every year to get by. That’s not how it rains here. Dry years and wet years are the norm. Last year where I now live in the northern California we had 71% of average and the previous year 77% of average. This doesn’t seem like a drought to me but this state thinks anything <100% is a drought.
Reply: BINGO! ~ charles the moderator