Below is a note forwarded to me by John Sumption from Jan Janssens. For those who do not know him, Jan runs a very comphrehensive solar tracking website here.
Jan included the caveat:
This topic’s sure to start another heated discussion on the solar blogs
So I’m happy to oblige by posting it here. Jansen makes some good points about the possible first month that cylce 24 spots exceed cycle 23 spots. But when you are in a deep minimum like this one, it is hard to pinpoint the transition, because next month may bring the reverse condition. He writes:
Prior to August 2008, only 3 SC24-sunspot groups appeared. This was in January, April and May. During these 3 months, SC23-activity was higher than SC24-activity. Based on the NOAA-numbering, there were respectively (SC23 to SC24) 2 to 1, 2 to 1, and 4 to 1 sunspotgroups visible.
In August, there were no sunspotgroups numbered by NOAA. However, on 21-22 August “something” was visible well enough to be seen by several observers and to prompt the SIDC to give a (preliminary) non-zero sunspotnumber for those days.
This group had a SC24-polarity but appeared on a moderate latitude of 15 degrees. Based on previous cycle transits, it is not unusual that some “early” new cycle groups appear this low. If one considers this as a sunspotgroup and belonging to SC24, then August was the month during which SC24-activity outnumbered SC23 activity.
However, if one adheres strictly to the NOAA-numbering, then September ***might*** be that month. I stress “might”, because -unless some group appears tomorrow or tuesday- the score will still be 1 to 1: On September 11th, NOAA did number an even tinier group than the August one, and it was a SC23 group (NOAA 1001). SC24-activity then wins on “points”, because the Wolfnumbers for 22-23 September produced by NOAA 1002 (SC24) were higher than the NOAA 1002 Wolfnumber.
Last but not least, I want to emphasize that SC24-activity will be considered higher than SC23’s when its smoothed group (or Wolf) number exceeds that of the old cycle. This might happen in the coming months (or whenever her Majesty the Sun feels up to it 😉
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With virtually no sun spots to count one wonders if it makes much of a difference if we count the one sunspot to 23 or 24. The mini group 1002 appeared to belong to 24 but came and went so quickly. To repeat, the minimum continues until her majesty decides to proceed.
The new cycle sure needs to get going with a real bang, and fast,
what with “6 to 8 years” after 2000 being 2008.
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/21dec_cycle24.htm
In September there was one SC23 spot lasting for one day, and one SC24 spot lasting for two days, so SC24 wins, but that does not mean that SC24 has begun in earnest. We are still waiting for the first big SC24 spot.
I think Jansen is bored & just rabblerousing. Of course, it’s a rabble easily roused. 🙂
“. . .because next month may bring the reverse condition.”
Qualifiy. CYA. I don’t see much substance here, and I don’t think he does either– a lot of wishful thinking, but that’s all. We’re all sitting on pins and needles and nobody knows when or what to expect next. So you have to qualify any statement like this with a back door.
The solar flux is at 67.3 today; the planetary A index is at 2; the three hour K indices is 00001121 (Planetary) and10001211 (Boulder); the background x ray flux is below class A1 level, and the sun remains spotless. The sun is in a deep minima. It’s tough to make a case that September is the month we might be transitioning out of cycle 23 with a score of 1-1or 1-2. If it continues to go 1-2 or 1-3 or 0-2, then I see a positive cycle 24 trend. We are not seeing that yet.
Ric Werme (13:38:43) :
” I think Jansen is bored & just rabblerousing. Of course, it’s a rabble easily roused. 🙂 ”
No, I bothered him on a Sunday afternoon specifically to ask for his opinion, which he graciously provided.
As to whether * I * am bored and rabble-rousing – I deny any conscious ulterior motive. I’m just here for the science.
doug janeway (13:56:21) :
The solar flux is at 67.3 today;
Always look at the ‘middle’ column, the ‘adjusted’ value. It is 67.6 today.
Jan’s website, which is excellent on a number fo topics, actually gives a range of scenarios for SC23/24 cutover, the sun cycle minimum etc, ranging from April 2008 to December 2009. He, if I read him right, makes the point that the SC23/24 transition is problematic because we are having an unusually long, low activity minimum. The options are
1. We will have a delayed SC24 which is like recent sun cycles only probably less active. This leads to early minimum dates with August 2008 as a possible
2. SC24 will look like SC11 to 15 and have a long rise time. This leads to a later minimum, probably in 2009
3. SC24 will be unlike any of the last 14 cycles and we just have to wait and see …. cue alarmist talk about Maunder minimum and a little ice age. Of course the alarmists could be right but I hope not – I dont want a cold Europe in my declining years!
The short answer is we don’t really understand the sun well enough to make reliable predictions. Up till now a prediction of same as last cycle adjusted for cycle length has served us wellbut this process fails with Sc23/24. For the moment we can watch, wait and sepculate!
After reading these speculative thoughts, I can see why we normally don’t know for certain that a minimum has been hit until about six months after the fact. We can speculate all we what with a series of what if’s but let’s just see what the smoothed Wolfnumber looks like over the course of the upcoming months.
Of course, if the predictions by Livingston and Penn come to pass, this whole issue my become a moot point.
And incidently the only certainty is that the SC23/24 minimum as conventionally measured cannot now be before March 2008 and is most unlikely to be before August 2008
Glenn (13:19:03) :
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/21dec_cycle24.htm
Although I’m pleased to see that Hathaway and NASA has adopted my corrected IHV geomagnetic index instead of the faulty aa-index, I’m not too happy with the result. Hathaway picks the ‘wrong’ peak [in 2003] while he should have picked peaks in either 2005 or 2008 that are only half as large [thus predicting a solar cycle only half as large]. His method relies on picking a peak on the approach to solar minimum, and 2003 is at least 5 years before the minimum and is not the one to pick. But he was also motivated [by NASA?] to pick cherry-pick a peak that would corroborate Dikpati et al.’s NASA-funded prediction. So apart from NASA giving my IHV-index an apparent ‘official’ stamp of approval, I think they screwed up big-time on this one. The way we normally deal with things like this is simply to ignore it and let it die, as it will.
I agree that we don’t know enough about the Sun to be making predictions,
but that doesn’t stop scientists like Hathaway, who has several papers published in reviewed journals on correlations he bases predictions on :
“Cross correlating sunspot number vs. IHV, they found that the IHV predicts the amplitude of the solar cycle 6-plus years in advance with a 94% correlation coefficient.
“We don’t know why this works,” says Hathaway. The underlying physics is a mystery. “But it does work.”
*Yawn* Dull Sun = Slow news day = Speculation.
Have you ever noticed how everybody gets all-a-twitter when the least sunspeck shows itself? And this happens, maybe, once or twice a month if that? Does that not illustrate how very desperate we are to see something? Anything?
I realize this is solar science, and the least thing could very well be important. But, really, this is just sad. This is like standing by a hospital bed hoping a dying man suddenly gets better and comes back to life – not that the Sun is literally dying, of course, or we’d all not be here. But you get what I mean.
There is little about the Sun today to offer any strong evidence of SC24 starting. Noise, background noise, is just about all there really is right now.
Minima 101: where the phenomenon meets the sensor.
In the last week alone, my pumpkin plant sprouted 2 dozen new pumpkins. The morning glories have flowers on them like spring. The robins are all over the lawn, like a 2nd spring.
It’s uncanny for late September, and the phenomena of this year is relentless.
Changes, oh yes. Right before my very eyes.
If the Sun and the sensors won’t talk, the Earth surely will.
Look out your window, not up, but what’s going on at ground level. What do you observe?
Robert Bateman (15:59:32) :
“The morning glories have flowers on them like spring. The robins are all over the lawn, like a 2nd spring.
It’s uncanny for late September, and the phenomena of this year is relentless. ”
Yeah, the UK finally had some fair weather, after their “Awful August.”
It’s over.
Rain and gales again by Tuesday.
We seem to be still debating whether SC24 has even started. I agree with Leif that until we see some ” earnest ” activity, there is no clear picture. I feel that it will be next summer[2009] before we begin to see sunspot number readings of 25.
Leif Svalgaard (14:22:46) :
doug janeway (13:56:21) :
The solar flux is at 67.3 today;
Always look at the ‘middle’ column, the ‘adjusted’ value. It is 67.6 today.
Thanks, Leif. I took too quick a glance trying to post my response in between other duties.
A big cycle 24 spot would obviously be a signal that a transition is underway, but if we continue to see these speks for a while and 23 spots cease, could we safely say that 24 has started, or what do we make of that scenario if it happens?
Leif Svalgaard (15:11:46) :
Note that the story is dated Dec. 21, 2006 or 21.12.2006 or whatever it is in Danish. So the 2008 peak is out and possibly the 2005 one wasn’t documented yet, at lest it doesn’t show up in the graph.
So, old news. Toss the prediction on Janssen’s scrappile and look for a new one. Hmm, alreday there, item 7 at http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24.html
Tpred of March 2006.
Item 14 is a Hathaway aa prediction made in December 2006.
This may be a dumb question and referring back to the Morlet Wavelet Transform of Monthly Smoothed Sunspot Numbers graph shown on September 22, is there any info before 1750 which can be graphed?
There is lots of graphs using c14 records as a proxy for actual sunspot counts that go back centuries or a lot more if you want them.
I have a c14 graph that goes back 2000 yrs here where i also plotted the alignment of the gas giants that line up with each minimum and TODAY.
http://users.beagle.com.au/geoffsharp/gasgiants.pdf
nobwainer,
By what mechanism does C-14 become a proxy for sunspots?
There is an interesting interview with Dr. Hathaway at SolarCycle24.com. It seems Boulder believes that 24 will start late this year and be extra big.
http://solarcycle24com.proboards106.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=13
Here’s what I wonder: What is the use in talking about this, other than idle conversation, if the Sun has little to no effect on our weather or climate? Leif has said the Sun acts on the Earth in terms of hundreds of thousands and perhaps millions of years. If that is true, exactly why should we care about a solar minimum? They apparently don’t correlate perfectly with global temperature dips. If the Sun has any role in the frequency of cloud formation, that might be something. But so far the only thing I have heard myself that is significant about the minima is about the solar wind.
A new study suggests its lessening may allow more cosmic rays to hit the Earth, which is causing a big hole in the ozone layer according to the study. Either this month or next we are supposed to see a very large ozone hole.
Anybody hear more about that lately? September is almost over.
For the story see here: http://www.icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog
It’s the second article, titled “Study: Solar Wind Influenced Cosmic Rays Not CFCs Produce Ozone Hole.”
The original article is here: http://www.exchangemagazine.com/morningpost/2008/week38/Thursday/091811.html
Robert Bateman,
“Look out your window, not up, but what’s going on at ground level. What do you observe?”
Green lawns, my bell peppers are coming along nicely, and there are a couple of fresh bunches of finger-bananas growing in the mini-platinera in the corner of my yard. There are frogs hopping around after particular heavy rains this afternoon, and judging by the racket my neighbor’s dogs are making, the resident raccoon is taking its evening tour of back-porch cat-food dishes.
In Ft. Lauderdale this is unsurprising. What is surprising is that temps have been maxing out in the 84-87F range, about 4-6 degrees cooler than normal for this time of year.
Personally, I’m loving it. Cool is good down here, but I feel for those to the north of me, I fear this winter.