UAH (University of Alabama, Huntsville) Microwave Sounder Unit (MSU) lower troposphere global temperature anomaly data for August 2008 was published today and has moved a bit below the zero anomaly line, with a value of -0.010°C, down from 0.048°C in July 2008
The global UAH ∆T from July to August 2008 was .049°C and is 0.287°C cooler than in August 2007. It becomes the fourth time the UAH data has dipped below the zero anomaly line in 2008
UAH
2008 1 -0.046
2008 2 0.020
2008 3 0.094
2008 4 0.015
2008 5 -0.180
2008 6 -0.114
2008 7 0.048
2008 8 -0.010
Click for a larger image
Reference: UAH lower troposphere data
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Unrelated: In Canada, we are going to have a fall Federal election. Of course, everybdy is going to talk climate issues as well. Surprisingly, the electorate seems not have bought into alarmist thinking: http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/080907/n_canada_reuters/canada_politics_poll_col
Then again, in the world’s coldest country, a little bit of warming ain’t that bad…..
So what does the 10 year linear look like? Or 12 month moving average?
When I mention temps are falling, people are totally unbelieving. Skeptical, you might say…
[…] Source: wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com Tags: temperature, temperatures Related Posts […]
So, hundredths of a degree around the “zero anomaly line” doesn’t sound like a catastrophe to me.
Drops -0.010°C? OMG! Wherez my anorak?
Over the last ten years, UAH. RSS and HadCrut all show the world as cooling, with RSS showing the steepest cooling. But Hansen still thinks temperatures are going up – fast.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1998/trend/plot/uah/from:1998/trend/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1998/trend/plot/gistemp/from:1998/trend
If you choose an arbitrarily cold period as your reference point, then it is still warmer than it was then. Every warm year is evidence, every cold year is just noise. Unless the cooling continues for, let’s say, 100 years, it still won’t be enough to persuade warmists like Hansen. They are driven by belief systems, not logic or science method.
I fear that only another ice age will be enough proof that man does not control the weather or the climate. Even then, we will still be the main culprit, because nature never effects the climate, expect when it does.
Reason, it seems, has taken a long holiday.
Patrick Henry 11:21:40
But does this not suggest someone is cooking the books – so to speak?
Warm temperatures seem not to be unique.
http://news.yahoo.com/story//afp/20080905/lf_afp/switzerlandarchaeologyclimatewarming
http://www.newsmax.com/headlines/global_cooling/2008/09/08/128749.html
The 12 mo. running mean for Aug, 2008 is 0.047
The 12 mo. running mean for Aug 1980 is 0.087
That “Global Warming” is a Bear, eh?
Don’t know if this month was an exception, but the August figures were already published at least two days ago on this link:
http://climate.uah.edu/august2008.htm
The National Weather Service reports that Alaska has had an AGW summer.
Summer has been one of Alaska’s coldest
High temperatures this season were 3rd lowest on record
By CRAIG MEDRED
cmedred@adn.com
(09/07/08 00:04:10)
Summer is officially over in Alaska, and if you got out in the sun to enjoy both days of it you were lucky.
Those were the two July days the temperature at the offices of the National Weather Service in Anchorage hit 70 degrees or better.
“Those temperatures occurred at the beginning of the month (of July) and were immediately followed by a long stretch of cool and wet weather.
“With only two days above 70 degrees this year, that sets a new record for the fewest days to reach 70,” the weather-watching agency reported Friday.
Add to the lack of heat and sunshine what the agency calls “an astonishing 77%” of days colder than normal, and you get the picture.
This summer was every bit as bad as you thought it was.
Gardens didn’t grow. Salmon returned late. Bees didn’t make honey. Swallows didn’t breed.
And the sunbathing, well, what sunbathing?
On average, Anchorage sees 16 days that hit 70 or better.
Not this year. Not since 1980 has there been a summer less reflective of global warming than this one. Consider these 2008 benchmarks from the weather service that say this month won’t be any better:
Over the course of the past 87 years, September temperatures have reached 70 only 17 times, and two of those 70-degree days came in the same year, according to the weather service.
On average, a 70-degree September day comes along about once every five years, but those days also tend to come in warm years, not years like this one.
Overall, the weather service ranks the summer of 2008 as having the third coolest average high temperatures since record keeping began. Only the summers of 1973 and 1971 were worse. In overall average daily temperatures, 2008 ranked 11th place.
CLOUDS ARE GOOD?
All that stopped this summer from winning a place as coldest ever was, strangely enough, its cloudy grimness.
“What seemed like endless days of cloud cover kept the daytime highs averaging 3 degrees below normal,” according to the weather service. “Inversely, the cloud cover helped to keep overnight temperatures up.
“The minimum temperatures in the summer of 2008 only ranked as the 34th coolest on record.”
Now, there’s something to cheer about. That and the fact that, though the summer left the birds and the bees struggling, the mosquitoes seemed to be doing just fine.
So what can you expect from here on out?
“September climatologically opens with high temperatures around 60 and overnight lows in the middle 40s,” says the local office of the weather service. Followed by October, when temperatures start to really drop, to the 20s and 30s by the end of the month.
That is the normal pattern.
This year?
The National Climate Prediction center is calling for “below normal temperatures along southern Alaska (through September).” Warm waters flowing north into the Gulf of Alaska mean Southcentral Alaska could be back to “normal” — if there is such a thing — by October or November.
That would be just in time for the snow-sport season that lasts about twice as long as summer.
Meanwhile, in case you forgot, the days are getting shorter, too.
——————————————————————————–
Contact Craig Medred cmedred@adn.com or call 257-4588.
——————————————————————————–
2008 numbers
• Anchorage’s average high temperature was 60.9 degrees, 3 degrees below normal.
• The average low was 47.7 degrees, 1.9 degrees below normal.
• The average for the season was 54.3 degrees, 2.4 degrees below normal.
— National Weather Service
Paul Clark,
I don’t think anyone is “cooking the books,” but when subjective temperature adjustments are made – people tend to bias them towards what they want to see. That is why the satellite data is more reliable – it is much less subjective.
In a letter to the editor of a local daily, replying to mine, professor Martin Vermeer of the Technical University of Helsinki, http://www.tkk.fi, shows the 1979 – July 08 UAH lower troposphere temp series with a rising trendline and explains the data as follows: “The straight trendline was calculated according to the least square method, that is how a long term trend – which climate is – should be determined apart from “noisy” data. (…) The underlying trend can only be calculated from a sufficiently long time series. (…) He notes: “I have included MH’s (or Anthony Watts’s, another statistical analphabet) extreme January 07 and May 08. Teh difference in temperature is quite correctly 0,777 degrees. The time difference is, however, puny sixteen months. Hello? This is weather, not climate.” Prof. Vermeer writes that he does not know if I am a liar or if I believe in my climate garbage myself, writing inter alia that “the trend 2001-2008 is falling and, as ocean currents have shifted to their cold phase, this is a sign that the 60-70 year cycle has turned once more.”
I feel honoured being mentioned in the same sentence as Anthony! -:)
Prof. Vermeer can be reached at martin.vermeer@tkk.fi. I am sure he would be glad to discuss statistics.
Magnus Hagelstam
I understand where he (Paul Clark) is coming from. How is making subjective adjustments that reflect your own bias not the same as “cooking the books”?
The cooling is showing up in all the data sets including the ones that use surface readings and that we know have a warming bias. Am I wrong to assume the cooling is actually greater than shown because the bias tends to hide it?
The next 12 – 24 months are the key. If temps bounce back up, then the recent drop may be no different than the 1999 period. If temps continue to fall, than I will become a full fledged skeptic.
So Biden’s going to challenge Palin on her view that humans’ aren’t the cause for global warming. May be some one should email this blog’s link to her.
It seems sad to me that even the sat figures have to be adjusted in some form and that then develops a difference between UAH and REMSS.
bsneath
I don’t see why 12-24 more months of cooling should matter when 10 years hasn’t. If the cooling og the last 16 months continues for another 24 without significant rebound we are going to be hurting in the agriculture sector, which means in the food sector.
Isn’t this La Nina and wasn’t it predicted?
Magnus Hagelstam (13:01:47) :
Yes and no. Yes in that it would be nice to see enough data so that cyclic and random data can be analyzed, and no in that it would be nice to see what effect the the PDO shift has in the satellite data. The satellite record doesn’t extend back to the last positive to negative shift. The only negative to positive shift resulted in a step in temperatures, (Joe D’Aleo calls it the Great Pacific Climate Shift).
So it’s natural and useful to be interested in a puny window, with the caveat that it is not the last word.
Phil,
The 2007-2008 La Nina ended several months ago, and wasn’t predicted. Hansen forecast a “Super El Nino” for 2007, not La Nina.
Summer has been one of Alaska’s coldest High temperatures this season were 3rd lowest on record
http://www.adn.com/news/environment/story/518517.html
Hopefully Biden will walk straight into that minefield.
Phil…
The La Nina entered “weak” status in April and ended completely in May. So June, July, and August have been La Nina-free. This can be seen in the warming of tropical ocean temperatures in the Pacific. However, this has not translated to warming overall globally, as evidence by the latest numbers.
Furthermore, 1999 featured a La Nina that persisted through the entire year (unlike this one). However, 2008 is running considerably cooler than 1999 so far.
I’LL BE JUST FINE, SAYS PLANET
(from the Daily Mash)
THE planet Earth has dismissed claims it is in danger from global warming, stressing the worst that could happen is the extinction of the human race………
click below for more (SATIRE- parental advisory):
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/environment/i%27ll-be-just-fine%2c-says-planet-20080306774/