You may recall the previous post where Basil Copeland and I looked at correlations between HadCRUT global temperature anomaly and sunspot numbers. This is similar, but looks at the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and uses the same Hodrick-Prescott (HPT) filter as before on the HadCRUT global temperature anomaly data and the PDO Index.
click for a larger image –
NOTE: the purple line is a monthly warming rate, to get decadal values, multiply by 120
This graphic provides some context to what may be happening with the PDO. In the upper panel we’ve plotted the PDO (in red), a smoothed PDO (in light blue), and our analysis of the bidecadal variation in warming rates.
From the PDO data itself, it is just too soon to be able to tell whether the current cool phase is just one of the shorter cycles, or whether it is the beginning of a longer term cycle like we saw back in the 1950’s and 1960’s. It is tempting, when looking at the warming rate cycles, to believe that we’ve just come out of a 60-66 year “Kerr” climate cycle, and are on the cusp of a cool phase like we see for the 1950’s and 1960’s.
But if you look closely at the end of the purple curve for our warming rate cycle, it seems to be about ready to turn back up. Now we do not want to put too much stock in the end values of a series that has been smoothed with HP filtering. So it could still be on a downward trend.
Then, to make it all the more interesting, we have solar cycle 23 lingering on. Considering that also, confidence is higher that we will continue to see a relative respite in the rate of warming and that we’re not likely to see our warming rate cycle jump back to where it was during solar cycles 22-23. But whether we see a full blown interlude between two strong warming trends, like we saw during the 1950’s and 1960’s, remains to be seen.
In other words, as we saw with Easterbrook’s analysis, we can be reasonably confident in projecting at least no further warming for a while. For that to happen, the purple warming rate curve must not only turn back upwards, it must rise into the region of positive values, and continue to rise for several years. If solar cycle 24 turns out to be a weak solar cycle, and there are historical precedents for cycle length suggesting it is likely to be weak, that probably isn’t happening.
I’ll have more on solar cycles 23 and 24 coming up in the next day or so.
So, in summary; probably no net warming for awhile, and maybe a period of extended cooling as in the mid 20th century. It all depends on whether this current PDO shift is a short term or longer term event such as we saw in the mid 20th century.
This is inline with the article in today’s UK Telegraph, saying:
“Global warming will stop until at least 2015 because of natural variations in the climate, scientists have said. Researchers studying long-term changes in sea temperatures said they now expect a “lull” for up to a decade while natural variations in climate cancel out the increases caused by man-made greenhouse gas emissions.
The average temperature of the sea around Europe and North America is expected to cool slightly over the decade while the tropical Pacific remains unchanged. This would mean that the 0.3°C global average temperature rise which has been predicted for the next decade by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change may not happen, according to the paper published in the scientific journal Nature.”
There’s a similar article in Yahoo News.
The paper by Keenlyside et al entitled “Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector” from the Nature website
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The AGW is being masked by natural occurances.
I can already see Hansen’s press conference.
The citation states:
“Note: the purple line is a monthly warming rate, to get decadal values, multiply by 144”
Do you mean “multiply by 120”?
REPLY: Fixed thanks
Now a German group are predicting a flip of the NAO. That would hurt.
Now a German group are predicting a flip of the NAO. That would hurt.
Hi, do you have a link ?
Am I reading the chart right? Is the global temperature effect in tenths of degrees Celsius or hundredths as on the chart?
I’ll have more on solar cycles 23 and 24 coming up in the next day or so.
Never fear. I’ll provide more lyrics.
REPLY: hundreths
Live link to Hansen Press Conference:
“Now as we all know….”
Aside to Noises Off “err sorry Al but the cover is blown, keep quiet and I’ll do what I can”
“…the Planet hasn’t warmed one bit since 1998. And I know that we claimed it at the time it happened then because of CO2 but that was because we needed a big win, but in the end as you all now now that was an El Nino year, which is a Natural Variation, is that funny or what ?”
“Well after ten straight years of nada, guess what ? Now don’t laugh now, I’m serious, yes you guessed it, we have some more Natural Variation only this time, and this is the funny part, really it is, it’s pointing the other way”
” Now some of you might say, why is Natural Variation suddenly so important ?
“And that’s why I can stand here today resplendent in my suit of transparent clothes and tell you unequivocally that this Natural Variation masks a significant problem”
“The problem is that my research funding is likely to dry up. But there’s no reason to worry about that because in seven years the warming will come back. Yes it will folks, believe me, I pinky swear that it will”
“And luckily when it does my friend Al has an answer for it, so if you could be so kind as to give $x Billion to Al and each of his friends, he can make it go away, really he can, I know that because I have been behind the curtain and seen him twiddling his controls”
“Thank you for your attention, and now I’ll take questions about the color of my transparent suit”
Colder water will increase carbon dioxide absorption by the ocean. An additional feedback which may accelerate global cooling.
A naive question perhaps, but what does the PDO actually measure? If it is a temperature index, then a correlation with global temperature is not surprising (the Pacific is very very large) and tells us little.
REPLY: See more here: http://www.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/
Hi,
The big difference this time is that we might be going into a grant minimum for the sun and that would not be good. On the other hand I would like to see the faces of the greenie crowd when 2015 rolls around we are 2C cooler.
Anthony, I just want to respond about rice, my wife and I eat a lot of rice. We buy it in 50 pound bags. 3 months ago it was about $15.00 a bag, now it is almost $35.00. This is not about bio-fuel it is about climate and rice crops in the US are getting hit hard, and this is only the beginning.
So climate can cool naturally, um excuse me “lull”, but it can not warm naturally. Interesting.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v453/n7191/abs/nature06921.html
Is this the paper you were looking for?
REPLY: That looks like it, unfortunately, it’s behind a green wall ($) of Nature, so we can’t read the entire paper, only the abstract. Thank you!
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v453/n7191/full/453043a.html
The IPCC predicted no warming over the next 20 years?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080430/sc_afp/scienceclimatewarming_080430173430
Of course once again its only a model and published in Nature so even the AGW crowd is listening. What will be the story in 2015 if it cools even more (or just flatlines?) and so on and on and on… LOL. At least IPCC, Governments will not headlong into crazy ideas that are already beginning to cost billions (biofuels) and starve millions and may in fact affect climate through altered land use (re Pielke and company only version of Global warming that is credible)
More weather stats from the SH.
In Eastern Australia:
In NSW, coldest was Charlotte’s Pass with a minimum of -10C – not a record but close.
Both Braidwood (NSW south coast) and Tenterfield (North) had minimums of -5C, previous records were -3C at both.
Armidale -3C – previous record -0.3C, while Armidale Airport reached -6C, (grass at -9C)
Glen Innes was at -6C and fell below 0C at 8PM.
Richmond in Sydney’s outer west re-broke the record low set on Tuesday with 2.1C
In Queensland, Roma fell to -0.2, previous record +0.5, while St George fell to +1.1C, previous record +3.3, and Gympie fell to +3.8C, previous record +4.8C.
It’s getting COLD down here! When you add wind chill, it makes for an unpleasant autumn.
After read all commentaries in the last post’s about the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, my question is: Can we really look to this index as a pattern ? With only 2 irregular occurrences in one hundred years and no records before 1900 ?
Your postings are being appreciaed on the following forum, this guy is really up on putting your information into the political context and a very good read. http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2008/05/several-decades-of-global-cooling.html. It is nice to see serious blogs working off each other to move the arguments forward against the GW hysteria in the media
Anthony: With the interrelationship between ENSO and the PDO, this looks like an appropriate time for me to raise the cumulative effect of NINO3.4 data and its correlation to global temperature anomaly.
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2008/04/is-there-cumulative-enso-climate.html
Your postings are being appreciated and put into political contexts on other forums, in particular EUreferendum.com http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2008/05/several-decades-of-global-cooling.html
I hope you agree a really good read and very good to see serious blogs working off each other to combat junk science and junk politics
Here is a set of questions that should be put to the California OES, FEMA, and every other similar agency world wide:
1) What is your contingency plan for a 10 year cold period?
2) What is your contingency plan for another Maunder Minimum like event?
3) What is your contingency plan for the end of the interglacial?
UN begins CYA on coming cooling-
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aU.evtnk6DPo&refer=worldwide
Sorry- posted in wrong thread earlier.
REPLY: hundreths
Oh, right. Monthly warming RATE. That makes all the difference! (I thought at first it was an absolute measure. My bad.)
Braddles,
The significance of any correlation between temperature and the PDO would not be in the correlation itself, but in the fact that the PDO is perceived as having defined cycles, and can switch from a warm phase to a cool phase. If the PDO can do that, then why not temperature itself. Or better, if the recent warm phase of the PDO was just a phase, then could the recent warming have been just part of a phase, and not the evidence of alarming “global warming” that the alarmists are always saying?
Jet stream,
Andrew left out, probably because it was overly technical, a spectrum analysis I did of the PDO. It shows that the long phases are “statistically significant,” but not necessarily “harmonic,” meaning that we do have to be cautious about projecting them into the future. I’ve started looking into the Aleutian Low, which is part of the overall climatological environment of the PDO, and it seems to show much better defined cycles. I don’t have the data in front of me, but I think the cycles are roughly 5, 10, and 20 years in length. The index shows a weakened Aleutian Low in 2007 (it is an annual index). The notion that the PDO has long cycles is based on a variety of factors, besides just the PDO index itself.
Basil
I am entertained by the various Hansen speculations by Pablo and others. But, just remember, all he has to do is say: “See, I was right the first time.” and refer back to his coming ice age predictions of the 60s. Apparently from the same model(s), just tuned differently. Must need more funding to sort it all out.
BTW, does anyone else find it odd that Hansen is at NASA Space Sciences, and there is an entirely separate NASA agency responsible for studying and reporting terrestrial weather and climate?
“Today I adjusted all the family business. PDO. Gone. AMO. Gone. PSI. Gone. AO. Gone. UHI. Gone. SHAP. Gone. FILENET. Gone. Now you’re gonna have to answer for TOBS.”
“It wasn’t me, I swear. Don’t do this, Jim!”
“Atmoz, you’re my student and I love you. But don’t tell me you never heard of Lampasas station. Because that would insult my intelligence. And that makes me very angry . . .”