How error propagation works with differential equations (and GCMs)

guest post by Nick Stokes There has been a lot of discussion lately of error propagation in climate models, eg here and here. I have spent much of my professional life in computational fluid dynamics, dealing with exactly that problem. GCM’s are a special kind of CFD, and both are applications of the numerical solution…

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Nassim Taleb Strikes Again

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Following up on his brilliant earlier work “The Black Swan”, Taleb has written a paper called Error, Dimensionality, and Predictability (draft version). I could not even begin to do justice to this tour-de-force, so let me just quote the abstract and encourage you to read the paper.   Abstract—Common intuitions are…