Precipitation Miracles

From the Cliff Mass Weather Blog

Cliff Mass

Sometimes, higher powers respond to our supplications.

Water behind Lake Powell

At the end of summer, the water level of Lake Powell, fed by the Colorado River, was at record lows, and there were worries about power generation, as well as supplying needed water downstream.

But then a miracle occurred: a series of atmospheric rivers pushed into the Southwest, dropping immense amounts of precipitation over the Colorado River drainage (see below)

Rivers rose dramatically, and the water level was rapidly elevated behind the dam:

Plenty more water will flow into the Colorado River during the next week, as shown by the predicted hydrograph below for a location upstream of the dam.

But the miracles don’t stop there.

The Yakima Valley, which had low snowpack feeding the Yakima River, received localized heavy rain at the end of the summer, allowing water restrictions to end (see below; blue is much above normal precipitation).

And now the upcoming water miracle.

The 15-day precipitation forecasts predict large amounts of precipitation for Northern California, whose reservoirs need a refill after the summer, and the Pacific Northwest, which has been relatively dry this autumn.

Meteorology and religion have had a long association, and perhaps there is only one thing to be said:

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6 Comments
Dave Yaussy
November 4, 2026 10:28 am

I keep hearing that Lake Mead is at very low levels. How much rain is needed to fill the lake?

Reply to  Dave Yaussy
November 4, 2026 10:38 am

Mead is mostly filled by water released from Powell. Not directly by rain. So a lot more than has happened so far, with Powell only reaching about 25% after these rain events per the post.

November 4, 2026 10:56 am

Rivers hit historic levels in Southwest amid destructive floods
Although there are sharp rises in Lake Powell, it remains 13 feet lower than at this time last year.

November 2, 2026 The Washington Post
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How predictable.

November 4, 2026 11:14 am

There are two fundamental problems with Mead and Powell that this ‘miraculous’ weather event cannot solve long term.
First, the Colorado Compact water allocations were based on a time period that (with hindsight) was historically significantly wetter than ‘normal’. It never was realistically sustainable in the long run.
Second, those unsustainable Compact water allocations enabled the growth of otherwise desert metroplexes like Phoenix and Las Vegas. Now they are stuck with a thirsty ‘new’ population of over 8 million.

my guess is that despite having senior water rights under present western state law, agriculture in Arizona, Nevada, and Southern California will take a big hit—as well as capping further development in Phoenix and Las Vegas metroplexes.

ResourceGuy
November 4, 2026 11:14 am

Just Look Up to the snow pack this year in Colorado and Utah. That may have other miracles.

Giving_Cat
November 4, 2026 11:19 am

Looks like we dodged another year or more of disaster. The hard part remains. Claims on the available water remain far higher than supply. That’s why whiskey is fer drinkin’ and water is fer fightin’ over. Fun fact; more water is exported in the form of alfalfa and hay to nations like China, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE than the entire city of Los Angeles consumes annually. Too many straws, not enough glass. Everyone knows this yet none of the seven states and various Native American Tribes are doing anything to discourage more consumption.