UAH v6.1 Global Temperature Update for October, 2026: +0.69 deg. C (+1.24 deg. F)

From Dr. Roy Spencer’s Global Warming Blog

Dr. Roy Spencer

The Version 6.1 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for October, 2026 was +0.69 deg. C (+1.24 deg. F) departure from the 1991-2020 mean, up from the September, 2026 value of +0.61 deg. C (+1.10 deg. F).

The Version 6.1 global area-averaged linear temperature trend (January 1979 through October 2026) remains at +0.16 deg/ C/decade (+0.29 deg. F/decade) (+0.22 C/decade [+0.40 F/decade] over land, +0.13 C/decade [+0.23 F/decade] over oceans).

The following table lists various regional Version 6.1 LT departures from the 30-year (1991-2020) average for the last 34 months (record highs are in red).

Year	Mon	Globe	NHem	SHem	Tropic	US48	Arctic	Aust.	Can.
2024	Jan	+0.79	+1.02	+0.57	+1.20	-0.20	+0.40	+1.11	+0.97
2024	Feb	+0.87	+0.94	+0.81	+1.16	+1.30	+0.86	+1.15	+2.45
2024	Mar	+0.88	+0.95	+0.80	+1.25	+0.21	+1.05	+1.33	+1.12
2024	Apr	+0.94	+1.11	+0.76	+1.14	+0.85	+0.88	+0.53	+1.39
2024	May	+0.77	+0.77	+0.78	+1.20	+0.04	+0.20	+0.52	+0.67
2024	June	+0.69	+0.77	+0.60	+0.84	+1.36	+0.64	+0.90	+0.19
2024	July	+0.73	+0.85	+0.61	+0.96	+0.43	+0.56	-0.07	+1.15
2024	Aug	+0.75	+0.81	+0.69	+0.74	+0.40	+0.88	+1.74	+1.36
2024	Sep	+0.80	+1.04	+0.57	+0.81	+1.31	+1.48	+0.97	+2.40
2024	Oct	+0.74	+0.89	+0.60	+0.63	+1.89	+0.81	+1.08	+0.89
2024	Nov	+0.64	+0.87	+0.40	+0.53	+1.11	+0.79	+0.99	+1.61
2024	Dec	+0.61	+0.75	+0.47	+0.52	+1.41	+1.12	+1.53	+1.65
2025	Jan	+0.45	+0.69	+0.20	+0.23	-1.07	+0.74	+0.47	+1.04
2025	Feb	+0.50	+0.55	+0.45	+0.25	+1.03	+2.10	+0.86	-0.35
2025	Mar	+0.57	+0.73	+0.41	+0.40	+1.24	+1.23	+1.20	+0.80
2025	Apr	+0.61	+0.76	+0.46	+0.36	+0.81	+0.85	+1.21	+0.45
2025	May	+0.50	+0.44	+0.55	+0.30	+0.14	+0.75	+0.98	+0.81
2025	June	+0.47	+0.48	+0.47	+0.29	+0.80	+0.05	+0.38	-0.22
2025	July	+0.36	+0.49	+0.23	+0.44	+0.32	+0.40	+0.52	-0.23
2025	Aug	+0.39	+0.39	+0.39	+0.16	-0.06	+0.82	+0.11	+0.62
2025	Sep	+0.52	+0.55	+0.49	+0.35	+0.37	+0.77	+0.30	+2.44
2025	Oct	+0.53	+0.52	+0.55	+0.24	+1.12	+1.42	+1.66	+2.59
2025	Nov	+0.43	+0.58	+0.27	+0.24	+1.31	+0.78	+0.36	+1.47
2025	Dec	+0.30	+0.45	+0.15	+0.18	+2.10	+0.32	+0.37	-1.86
2026	Jan	+0.35	+0.51	+0.19	+0.09	+0.30	+1.40	+0.95	+1.17
2026	Feb	+0.38	+0.54	+0.23	+0.03	+1.91	-0.48	+0.73	+0.32
2026	Mar	+0.38	+0.33	+0.42	+0.07	+3.74	-0.48	+1.14	-3.17
2026	Apr	+0.39	+0.43	+0.34	+0.23	+1.20	+0.30	+0.70	-0.89
2026	May	+0.53	+0.46	+0.60	+0.58	+0.21	+0.34	+0.10	+0.21
2026	June	+0.46	+0.54	+0.38	+0.57	+0.64	+1.01	+0.38	+0.99
2026	July	+0.48	+0.68	+0.27	+0.85	+1.14	+0.53	-0.22	+0.78
2026	Aug	+0.67	+0.76	+0.59	+0.90	+0.59	+0.80	+0.39	+0.71
2026	Sep	+0.61	+0.78	+0.44	+0.89	+1.32	+0.80	+1.13	+0.99
2026	Oct	+0.69	+0.82	+0.57	+0.88	+2.13	+1.18	+0.46	+0.80
Year	Mon	Globe	NHem	SHem	Tropic	US48	Arctic	Aust.	Can.

Time Series Plots for Tropics, USA48, Canada, and Australia

The full UAH Global Temperature Report, along with the LT global gridpoint anomaly map for October, 2026 and a more detailed analysis by John Christy, should be available within the next several days here.

The monthly anomalies for various regions for the four deep layers we monitor from satellites will be available in the next several days at the following locations:

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39 Comments

strativarius

November 4, 2026 6:29 am

UAH v6.1 Global Temperature Update for October, 2026

To which I would counter: Global Phone Number Update for October, 2026

The idea of a global temperature is no different from the notion of a global climate.

Climate zones are systems that categorise the world’s climates. So, more than the one? Surely not…

Arid climate
Mediterranean climate
Temperate climate
Tropical climate
Mountain climate
Polar climate

It would appear there isn’t a single climate. Gosh.
Isn’t this really about attempting to play along with the alarmists?

Global temperature has not always had the iconic status it has today.

I wonder why…

TheFinalNail

Reply to strativarius

November 4, 2026 7:33 am

Funny how this question about a global temperature estimate only becomes an issue here when it’s warming.

-4

strativarius

Reply to TheFinalNail

November 4, 2026 7:41 am

Does it? That sounds like projection to me.

While much of the U.S. and Europe have spent this summer trapped under relentless heat domes and record highs, the bottom of the planet has swung hard the other way. Concordia Station, perched high on the Antarctic plateau, plunged to minus 119 degrees on July 18. According to reports, that’s the lowest temperature recorded anywhere on Earth since 2012

What’s the average telephone number in your area?

Bellman

November 4, 2026 6:41 am

(In case anyone here still thinks UAH data is useful…)

This is the 3rd warmest October in the UAH data set, going back to 1979.

1  2023    0.78
2  2024    0.74
3  2026    0.69
4  2025    0.53
5  2017    0.47
6  2020    0.36
7  2021    0.34
8  2015    0.28
9  2016    0.28
10 2019    0.26

Here is what that looks like in terms of global average temperature for the lower troposphere. October temperatures are highlighted in blue.

-5

karlomonte

Reply to Bellman

November 4, 2026 6:46 am

(In case anyone here still thinks UAH data is useful…)

Obviously you do.

Bellman

Reply to Bellman

November 4, 2026 6:48 am

For comparison, here’s the same for surface temperatures according to ERA5.

-4

pillageidiot

Reply to Bellman

November 4, 2026 6:49 am

Thanks Bellman.

I really like that chart with all of the data plus a specific month highlighted.

I would think that in some circumstances that would be very helpful in trying to determine underlying causes.

Scissor

Reply to pillageidiot

November 4, 2026 7:02 am

I thought the boiling oceans would make it worse.

strativarius

Reply to Bellman

November 4, 2026 7:59 am

In case anyone here still thinks UAH data is useful

Ok. I’ll bite. What data do you recommend?

Bellman

Reply to Bellman

November 4, 2026 8:04 am

Here’s my unofficial anomaly map for October.

Note: I’ve changed the way the map is produced, using the Terra package, and the projection is now Equal Earth rather than Robinson.

Bellman

Reply to Bellman

November 4, 2026 8:18 am

And here’s the anomaly relative to the regional standard deviation.

Bellman

Reply to Bellman

November 4, 2026 8:35 am

Here are the countries with what I estimate are the highest anomalies this month

                       Finland    3.71
                       Estonia    3.23
                        Norway    3.04
                        Sweden    2.85
                        Latvia    2.79
                       Belarus    2.44
                     Lithuania    2.39
                       Denmark    2.21
      United States of America    1.93
                       Ukraine    1.89

Notes:

I’m using a completely different method to calculate the averages, and am making no claims for the accuracy of these figures.

For reference, my figures for Australia and Canada very close to the figures quoted in the official UAH values. (0.45 and 0.81 respectively.)

The USA value is for all of the USA, not just the contiguous states.

Bellman

Reply to Bellman

November 4, 2026 8:37 am

And here are the coldest anomalies by country.

                       Uruguay   -1.88
                      Paraguay   -1.48
                     Argentina   -1.09
                        Cyprus   -1.03
                        Greece   -1.00
                      Mongolia   -0.70
                     Greenland   -0.62
                       Albania   -0.57
               North Macedonia   -0.52
                         Nepal   -0.48

Victor

Reply to Bellman

November 4, 2026 9:37 am

The countries with the highest anomalies are all in the Northern Hemisphere.

Nicholas Schroeder

November 4, 2026 6:52 am

And that 1991-2020 mean is ??? xx.x C??

-3

Bellman

Reply to Nicholas Schroeder

November 4, 2026 7:10 am

By my reckoning, using the gridded data, it’s about 263.9K (-9.2 °C) for October.

It’s the temperature in the lower troposphere, not the surface.

strativarius

Reply to Bellman

November 4, 2026 8:01 am

using the gridded data

Presumably not UAH and something else… But what?

Bellman

Reply to strativarius

November 4, 2026 8:15 am

UAH.

strativarius

Reply to Bellman

November 4, 2026 8:22 am

UAH – and Dr Roy – play along. And you complain!

There is no global temperature.

-1

bdgwx

Reply to strativarius

November 4, 2026 8:26 am

I can confirm the 263.9 K figure. I too computed the average from the UAH grid files and that’s what I got as well.

Nicholas Schroeder

Reply to Bellman

November 4, 2026 10:13 am

TFK_bams09 17+80+63 is the ground surface not the troposphere.
No one has any idea where the 396/333/63 comes from.
Flew out someone’s butt.

johnesm

November 4, 2026 6:57 am

There’s got to be a better way to list the monthly anomalies for the various regions.

Sparta Nova 4

Reply to johnesm

November 4, 2026 9:27 am

Start by not misnaming them as anomalies.
A more reasonable label is departures from average.

bdgwx

November 4, 2026 7:18 am

The new Monckton Pause extends to 45 months starting in 2023/02. The average of this pause is 0.55 C. The previous Monckton Pause started in 2014/06. It lasted 107 months and had an average of 0.21 C. That makes this pause 0.34 C higher than the previous one.

+0.159 ± 0.041 C.decade-1 k=2 is the trend from 1979/01 to 2026/10 covering 574 values.

+0.055 ± 0.054 C.decade-2 k=2 is the acceleration of the trend.

-4

bdgwx

Reply to bdgwx

November 4, 2026 8:22 am

Fun fact…using Monckton’s analysis methodology the warming has always been “paused”.

1979/01 to 1987/11 lasting 107 months.

1986/09 to 1997/06 lasting 130 months.

1997/01 to 2015/08 lasting 224 months.

2014/07 to 2023/05 lasting 107 months.

2023/02 to 2026/10 lasting 45 months (ongoing).

As you can you see every month in the 574 month record from 1979/01 to 2026/10 is included in at least one pause period. Some months are even included in two pause periods.

This is similar to Simpson’s Paradox and should serve as a warning that “Monckton Pauses” cannot be used to declare that global warming has not occurred or that it has stopped.

Richard M

Reply to bdgwx

November 4, 2026 9:43 am

The influence over the entire period has been natural warming. Hence, all the pauses were destined to end at some point. We are entering a new regime. The +AMO which led to most of the warming is now ending. As the new -AMO phase gains strength, the pauses will start extending backwards further and further. Each of those individual pauses will get consumed one at a time. Going to be fun.

-1

Bruce Cobb

November 4, 2026 7:30 am

Uh-oh, looks like Catastrophic Global Milding is here. Run for your lives.

SxyxS

Reply to Bruce Cobb

November 4, 2026 9:47 am

Hell is freezing over.
All heat is here.

-1

TheFinalNail

November 4, 2026 7:38 am

US48 (CONUS) looks set to break its ‘warmest year’ record again in UAH in 2026.

Surprisingly little fuss being made of that here…?

-5

Scissor

Reply to TheFinalNail

November 4, 2026 7:56 am

I might have to put gasoline back in my mower before the lawn goes dormant.

Simon

Reply to Scissor

November 4, 2026 9:39 am

You still use gasoline? You must be rich……

strativarius

Reply to TheFinalNail

November 4, 2026 8:03 am

It’s great. I had my best grape harvest this year. And now its in malolactic fermentation.
Even better it’s duty free.

John Hultquist

Reply to strativarius

November 4, 2026 9:00 am

Strat,
The world has too many grapes. In the western USA growers are ripping out vines and growing hay & pasture. Aging small producers are closing down and retiring. I know of two families that stopped making wine last year. Kids went to universities and now have desk jobs.

strativarius

Reply to John Hultquist

November 4, 2026 11:02 am

I am not the world

ToldYouSo

November 4, 2026 7:46 am

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has declared 1.5°C (and as an upper limit, 2°C) above “pre-industrial levels” (measured against a 1850–1900 baseline) as critical global warming thresholds.

The IPCC and lemming-like MSM declare all sorts of bad things, including catastrophic/unrecoverable climate change, are predicted to occur once that upper “limit” on warming is exceeded.

Meanwhile, if one assumes the 47+ year linear fit of UAH-derived global-area averaged warming (land and sea) can be projected backward to “pre-industrial” times—here using a starting time of 1875 AD—then from 1875 to 2026 the rise in global temperature is calculated to be about (2026-1875)*0.016 °C/year = 2.4 °C.

One should note that a starting point of 1875 AD for the asserted linear warming trend is AFTER the end of the Little Ice Age.

So, as opposed to the IPCC’s unfounded, ridiculous assertions, I say “laissez les bons temps rouler!”

Sparta Nova 4

November 4, 2026 9:32 am

Climate is not defined with only temperatures.

That aside, which is more important? Land? Ocean? Atmosphere (pick an altitude)?

Can Antarctica be legitimately averaged with Sahara?

If the science is “settled” then why are billions upon billions of dollars spent on the models, erm, science each year?

BS alarm is very loud.

Nicholas Schroeder

November 4, 2026 10:09 am

Mean = (high + low)/2
Average is (sum of n)/n.
On a global data set pole to pole oblique incidence average is much larger than mean.

Richard M

November 4, 2026 10:17 am

We are well into the new super El Nino, which started in April. It has surpassed almost all the previous El Nino anomaly values at an even earlier date. So, how does this month’s value compare to the 2023 El Nino, which was only moderate, for the same month?

It’s about 0.1 C cooler. How can that that be true? AGW is supposed to be warming us. The answer is the warming of the 2023-2025 period was not due to AGW with an El Nino on top. It was due to the Hunga-Tonga eruption which has now mostly faded away.

That should be the positive take away from this report.

I’ll also add this supports the alternative view of warming I have pushing for years. It’s ALL NATURAL. The warming has been due to cloud reductions associated with natural cycles (AMO/PDO/etc.). The AMO cycle appears to have started the transition into its next cool phase. That will lead to an increase in clouds driving more cooling.

Ozonebust

November 4, 2026 10:35 am

The UAH anomaly chart at the top, clearly identifies that the high peaks that drag the average up are all at the same time of the year, and always in the NH Arctic region. The culprit is atmospheric transport into the Arctic region from lower latitudes. A change of wind direction into a very cold area that amplifies what we did not record prior to satellite observation.

The simplicity of it is profound.

The opposite in the SH offsets the NH to a large degree. That is caused by a different mechanism.

Image is from Willis E, some time ago.

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