For years, we’ve been told that climate change is an existential crisis, that extreme weather is spiraling out of control, and that unless we fundamentally transform our energy systems and way of life, catastrophe awaits.
There’s just one problem with many of these claims: when you look past the headlines and examine the actual data, the picture is considerably less frightening.
That’s the subject of a presentation I’ll be giving in Calgary, Alberta, on November 16, 2026, hosted by the Friends of Science Society.
The title is deliberately straightforward:
“Why You Should No Longer Fear Global Warming aka ‘Climate Change'”
And yes, I’ll be bringing the receipts.
What the Data Actually Shows
I’ve spent decades working in meteorology, studying weather and climate records, examining temperature measurement problems, and questioning claims that seem to get more dramatic with every new round of media coverage.
One thing I’ve learned is that there’s often a considerable difference between what the public is told about climate change and what the underlying scientific records actually demonstrate.
We hear that hurricanes are becoming increasingly destructive because of climate change. But what do the long-term records of hurricane frequency and intensity actually show?
We’re told that heat waves are unprecedented. Yet historical U.S. temperature records show that the 1930s remain a remarkable period for extreme heat, particularly when examining the frequency of very hot days.
We hear alarming predictions about rising seas, disappearing polar bears, vanishing snow, worsening droughts, and an Arctic supposedly on the verge of becoming ice-free.
Some changes are real, of course. Global temperatures have risen, glaciers have retreated in many regions, and global mean sea level continues to increase.
But the magnitude, causes, regional differences, and practical consequences of these changes deserve careful examination. The data often tell a more complicated story than the nightly news.
That’s what this presentation is about.
Multiple Climate Topics, Four Major Categories
During the evening, I’ll examine multiple climate-related topics, organized into four sections.
1. Extreme Weather
We’ll examine hurricanes, tornadoes, heat waves, floods, droughts, and weather-related deaths.
The central question is simple: Are these events actually becoming worse in the ways we’ve repeatedly been told?
For some measures, the long-term trends are surprisingly unremarkable. Others show regional or seasonal changes, while improvements in forecasting, infrastructure, and disaster preparedness have dramatically reduced vulnerability to many weather hazards.
For example, global weather-related disaster mortality has fallen enormously over the past century, even as populations have grown.
That is a genuine success story, although you wouldn’t know it from much of the coverage.
2. Climate Impacts
We’ll look at sea level rise, Arctic sea ice, polar bears, coral reefs, wildfires, snowpack, and the well-documented greening of the planet.
One particularly interesting subject is the increase in global vegetation observed by satellites, partly attributable to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide.
CO₂ is routinely discussed as though its only meaningful effect is to increase temperatures. Yet it is also an essential ingredient in photosynthesis, and satellite observations have documented widespread increases in leaf area.
There are trade-offs, regional variations, and other environmental influences, naturally. But those benefits deserve a place in any serious discussion of atmospheric CO₂.
We’ll also examine claims about wildlife and ecosystems, separating observed changes from projections about what might happen decades from now.
3. Science, Temperature Measurements, and Climate Models
This is familiar territory for longtime WUWT readers.
I’ll discuss the limitations of climate models, the importance of comparing their projections with actual observations, and the influence of urbanization and land-use changes on surface temperature measurements.
Many readers will remember my work examining the quality of weather station siting across the United States.
A thermometer near asphalt, buildings, or artificial heat sources can experience local influences that complicate the measurement of broader climate trends. Researchers apply adjustments and use multiple observational systems to address these issues, but the methods and remaining uncertainties deserve continued scrutiny.
We’ll also examine the logarithmic relationship between CO₂ concentrations and radiative forcing, natural climate variability, solar influences, and the contribution of El Niño to recent temperature fluctuations.
And yes, we’ll revisit the famous “97% consensus” claim.
Scientific questions are ultimately settled by evidence, reproducibility, and the strength of competing explanations. Opinion surveys cannot substitute for those things.
4. What We Were Told Was Wrong
This section may be the most entertaining.
Over the years, we’ve seen some spectacular predictions about the climate future.
We’ve been warned about enormous numbers of climate refugees, disappearing islands, catastrophic changes in ocean chemistry, and a variety of deadlines after which supposedly irreversible disaster would become unavoidable.
Some of those predictions were poorly framed, others were exaggerated in the media, and still others were based on assumptions that deserve reassessment.
We’ll revisit several prominent examples and compare the original claims with what subsequently happened.
We’ll also discuss the use of high-emissions scenarios such as RCP8.5 and the growing recognition that scenario plausibility matters when communicating future climate risks.
A scenario is a conditional exercise. Treating an extreme scenario as though it represents the inevitable future is a recipe for misleading the public.
And there’s been far too much of that already.
Why This Matters
Climate policies have consequences.
Energy costs affect households, businesses, agriculture, manufacturing, and the reliability of electrical grids. Decisions involving trillions of dollars deserve more than appeals to fear or unquestioning acceptance of worst-case projections.
We should be able to discuss the benefits, costs, uncertainties, and practical limitations of proposed policies without being accused of heresy.
The climate system is enormously complex. We still have important uncertainties involving clouds, aerosols, ocean circulation, regional precipitation, and natural variability.
Acknowledging those uncertainties is an essential part of doing good science.
And examining the actual observations can provide a useful antidote to the constant drumbeat of catastrophe.
Come Join Me in Calgary — Or Watch Online
The Friends of Science Society has arranged an evening presentation followed by questions and answers. I’ll be discussing the data behind these 25 topics and explaining why I believe a more measured perspective on climate change is justified.
You don’t need a science degree to attend. The presentation is intended for the general public, and I’ll be using graphs and official datasets from sources including NOAA, NASA, the EPA, and the IPCC.
Here are the details:
Date: Monday, November 16, 2026
Time: 7:00 p.m. Mountain Time (doors open at 6:30 p.m.)
Location: Coast Calgary University Area Hotel by APA
Address: 1804 Crowchild Trail NW, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
Admission:
- Friends of Science members: $25 CAD
- Non-members: $30 CAD
- Livestream: Free for members, $10 CAD for non-members
Free parking is available on site, and the venue is accessible by LRT.
Important: Tickets must be purchased in advance. There will be no ticket sales at the door.
Click here for event information and tickets.
Copies of Climate at a Glance, which I co-authored with James Taylor, will also be available for purchase at the event.
A Final Thought
After decades of hearing that we’re perpetually just a few years away from climate catastrophe, perhaps it’s time to ask a different question.
What if the future isn’t nearly as frightening as we’ve been led to believe?
That doesn’t mean ignoring genuine environmental problems or pretending that climate change has no consequences. It means examining those consequences in proportion to the evidence, understanding the limitations of predictions, and recognizing humanity’s extraordinary ability to adapt.
If you’re in the Calgary area, I hope you’ll join me. If you can’t attend in person, the livestream makes it possible to participate from anywhere.
Bring your questions. Bring your skepticism. And above all, bring your willingness to examine the evidence.
I’ll bring the graphs.
See you November 16.
— Anthony Watts
Event information and registration: Friends of Science Society
