‘The Future of CCS Can No Longer Be Assumed’ (a supporter rethinks …)

From MasterResource

By Robert Bradley Jr.

“Today, global operating nameplate capture capacity is approximately 60 million tonnes a year. If fully utilised, that would represent gross capture equivalent to roughly 14-15 hours of annual global energy and industrial emissions. Actual verified net storage is lower.” (- Martin Jagger, below)

Martin Jagger, a climate activist specializing in carbon capture & storage, recently wrote a sobering post on the progress of this technology in addressing the assumed-to-be climate crisis. This problematic approach is another example of the tears-in-the-ocean choices of climate mitigation policy.

“For twenty years,” he begins, “I have argued that CCS has an important role to play in managing emissions from industries where practical alternatives remain limited.” The progress to date has been small, and the effect on global emissions minuscule. He explains:

Today, global operating nameplate capture capacity is approximately 60 million tonnes a year. If fully utilised, that would represent gross capture equivalent to roughly 14-15 hours of annual global energy and industrial emissions. Actual verified net storage is lower…. Closing even the gap between today’s operating capacity and the announced [EIA estimated 2030 pipeline would require an extraordinary acceleration in permitting, financing, construction, commissioning and sustained operating performance.

The interest and potential investment are there, he believes, but “delivery” is small and problematic.

… announcements are not delivery, storage resources are not injection capacity, and nameplate capacity is not independently verified climate impact. The next phase of CCS must therefore be more demanding than the last. By 2030, success should no longer be measured primarily by the number of projects announced, memoranda signed, licences awarded or billions committed. It should be measured by verified net tonnes securely stored, year after year. That requires a tougher delivery model.

He alludes to the problem of getting from hyperbole to practice.

We have largely solved the problem of attracting interest and announcing investment. We have not yet solved the delivery problem. That distinction matters because CCS cannot indefinitely be judged by its potential. Nor should every delay be explained by saying that the industry simply needs more policy support or more public money. After two decades, the burden of proof must begin to shift.

Continuing:

That shift also requires greater honesty about how progress is reported. Too many of the institutions responsible for advocacy and industry leadership still present CCS largely as a good-news story. New projects, funding awards and headline capacity are publicised; delays, cancellations, operating shortfalls and the absence of verified storage receive much less attention.

Final Comment

Government incentives to carbon capture and storage, formalized in the Energy Improvement and Extension Act of 2008 (Section 45Q tax credit), should be terminated, an end to please many environmentalists and the free market community. [2] The whole initiative is inconsequential to global or regional climate, and projects have been opposed by local residents in the U.S. and elsewhere. [3]


[1] Martin Jagger’s bio reads:

I am an Executive Consultant in Energy Transition Strategy and Decarbonisation Delivery with a track record of bringing operator discipline to CCS policy and projects. I established Shell’s Carbon Capture and Storage Centre of Excellence in 2007 and helped shape international frameworks for long-term CO₂ storage that informed UNFCCC CDM mechanisms and regulatory guidance.

I currently advise sovereigns, regulators and innovators on areas where policy realism, technical feasibility and capital must align. My work tests the credibility of targets, the true scaling pathways for CCS and low-carbon fuels, and the structural barriers that stall momentum – especially FID drag, subsidy distortion, infrastructure mis-sequencing and the policy-performance gap.

[2] The tax credits since 2022 are $85 per ton of CO₂ stored for dedicated geologic storage projects and $60 per ton for CO₂ utilization projects with associated storage, increased from $50 and $35 subsidies (2018) and $20 and $10 (2008). A summary of federal largess from Taxpayers for Common Sense reads:

For decades, the federal government has provided billions of dollars in both direct and indirect subsidies to support CCS technology and projects. These subsidies have included research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) funding, loan guarantees, and tax credits.

Over the past few decades some of these subsidies have gone to projects that have been repeatedly started and stopped, only to eventually collapse due to various economic issues and controversies (e.g., FutureGen, Kemper). Additionally, the 45Q tax credit, which has grown significantly in both size and scope, has been mired in fraud and waste. To date, the federal government has spent tens of billions of taxpayer dollars on CCS through research and development funding and tax credits, yet the technology is still struggling with widescale deployment issues due to high costs….

According to the Congressional Research Service (CRS), Congress provided roughly $9 billion (in nominal dollars) in annual appropriations for DOE’s FECM from FY2010 to FY2023, with over $2.8 billion specifically directed towards CCS line items…. Congress appropriated $12 billion more to the technology through the infrastructure law (Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, P.L. 117-58) and greatly expanded the already lucrative tax credit in the Inflation Reduction Act (Public Law 117-169).

[3] There are currently 15 operating CCS facilities in the U.S. and another 120 projects under development. The top ten projects are (verbatim):

1. Stratos Direct Air Capture (DAC) Project

Companies: Occidental Petroleum (through its subsidiary 1 Point Five) and Origis Energy
Capacity: 500, 000 metric tons of CO₂ annually
Application: Direct Air Capture powered by a dedicated solar portfolio
Source: Origis Energy Commissions 500 MWdc Swift Air Solar Projects in …

2. Calpine Baytown Energy Center CCS Project

Companies: Calpine Corporation and Exxon Mobil
Capacity: Approximately 2 million metric tons of CO₂ annually
Application: Low-carbon power generation from a new natural gas plant
Source: Calpine, Exxon Mobil sign CO 2 transportation and storage …

3. CF Industries Donaldsonville CCS Facility

Companies: CF Industries and Exxon Mobil
Capacity: A key component of Exxon Mobil’s contracted ~9 million metric tons per annum (MTA) portfolio
Application: Decarbonization of ammonia production
Source: Here’s How XOM Is Scaling Up Its CCS Footprint to Reduce Emissions

4. Google-Backed Gas Power Plant with CCS

Companies: Google and Mitsubishi Power
Capacity: Designed to capture 90% of CO₂ emissions
Application: Firm, low-carbon power for data centers
Source: Google Commits to First U.S. Gas-Fired Power Plant with Integrated …

5. California Resources Corporation (CRC) Carbon Terra Vault I (CTV I)

Company: California Resources Corporation
Capacity: Not specified; designed as a dedicated CO₂ storage facility
Application: CO₂ injection and permanent geologic storage
Source: California Resources Corporation Breaks Ground on California’s …

6. Sweetwater Carbon Storage Hub (SCS Hub)

Companies: Frontier Infrastructure and Baker Hughes
Capacity: Positioned to be one of the largest U.S. CO₂ sequestration assets (specific tonnage not provided)
Application: Multi-user CO₂ sequestration hub for industrial emitters
Source: Baker Hughes, Frontier Infrastructure Partner on Carbon Capture …

7. ADM Decatur CCS Facility

Company: Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM)
Capacity: Averages nearly 0.5 Mtpa (based on 4.5 million metric tons sequestered over a decade)
Application: Long-term industrial CCS for ethanol production
Source: ADM and Carbon Capture and Storage

8. Lake Charles Power Station Integrated CO₂ Capture Project

Company: Project supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)
Capacity: Not specified; large-scale pilot
Application: Advancing capture technologies for power generation
Source: [XLS] Sheet 1 – Climate Program Portal

9. Illinois CO₂ Injection Project

Company: Unnamed Texas-based developer
Capacity: Not specified; early-stage regulatory filing
Application: New CO₂ injection and storage project
Source: CP Daily Newsletter: Wednesday February 18, 2026 – Carbon Pulse

10. Bantam DAC Facility

Company: Climeworks
Capacity: Over 5, 000 tons of CO₂ annually
Application: Direct Air Capture, noted as the largest operational DAC in the U.S. as of October 2025
Source: Facilities – CO 2 RE – Global CCS Institute

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20 Comments
Bryan A
September 22, 2026 6:24 am

By far, the best CCS device is Trees!
If you want to capture carbon grow trees. If you want to store it then do this…
Poplar Trees mature in 10 years. At maturity they weigh about 350lbs, 50% of which is Carbon.
12 trees equal One Ton of carbon.
.
Poplar grows relatively straight making it easy to stack. Upward of 6,000 trees can be grown per acre of land. 2 acres is 12,000 trees or 1,000 tons of Carbon (100 tons per year for 10 years).
Plant thousands of acres of Poplar Trees, harvest them every 10 years, stack them in old tailed out open pit mines, cover with water to maintain anoxic/abiotic conditions to prevent decomposition. When the pit is full then recover with earth and restore the land to its original pre mine condition.
This gives the added benefit of creating more FF Coal in a few million years.
.
This effectively sinks millions of tons of carbon…how quickly depends on the number of acres of land devoted to trees and the availability of tailed out pit mines.

Sweet Old Bob
Reply to  Bryan A
September 22, 2026 6:39 am

Plant trees for lumber .

Build houses . Much better .

Reply to  Sweet Old Bob
September 22, 2026 7:20 am

Bingo! Bigly!

Bryan A
Reply to  Sweet Old Bob
September 22, 2026 10:07 am

With the exception that Houses can Burn.

Dave Burton
Reply to  Bryan A
September 22, 2026 12:21 pm

The vast majority of wooden houses never burn.

More importantly, intentionally reducing levels of beneficial atmospheric carbon dioxide, to no other end, is a fool’s errand.

Kevin Kilty
September 22, 2026 6:48 am

“…capture capacity is approximately 60 million tonnes a year. If fully utilised, that would represent gross capture equivalent to roughly 14-15 hours of annual global energy and industrial emissions. “

Shutting down coal or gas fired dispatchable power which releases that same 60 million tonnes of CO2 presents exactly the same story, but in contrast to CCUS does provide convenience and prosperity. Pointing it out as I do every chance I get has no apparent effect.

Allen Pettee
September 22, 2026 7:00 am

Talk about spitting into the ocean. Most of the CO2 in the atmosphere comes from oceanic outgassing and soil respiration as a consequence of warming. What a complete waste of time, and they’re merely engaged in an exercise in futility that deprives plants of their source of sustenance.

Reply to  Allen Pettee
September 22, 2026 7:28 am

Then, they’ll have us all wearing a special face mask to capture our personal CO2 emission.

d4c04336-f1b2-48c6-bca6-0b729713236c
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
September 22, 2026 9:20 am

If only you were joking. Methane-capturing masks are already being put on cattle, this can’t be far behind.

Dave Burton
Reply to  Allen Pettee
September 22, 2026 12:43 pm

Allen Pettee wrote, “Most of the CO2 in the atmosphere comes from oceanic outgassing and soil respiration as a consequence of warming.”

That’s incorrect, Allen. The ONLY reason that atmospheric CO2 levels are rising is that humans are adding CO2 to the atmosphere faster than nature is removing it.

If we weren’t adding CO2 to the atmosphere, the level would be falling, rather than raising.

● Mankind is adding about 5 ppmv of fossil CO2 to the atmosphere each year (and perhaps a little bit of non-fossil CO2 through “land-use changes” — the GCB 2025 estimates that at +0.6 ppmv/year, but that’s really just a guess).

● Nature is removing an average of about 2.4 ppmv of CO2 from the atmosphere each year (or a bit more if you think mankind is adding non-fossil CO2 through “land-use changes”).

● The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is increasing because we’re adding CO2 faster than nature is removing it. It is currently increasing at an average rate of about 2.6 ppmv per year.

comment image
 

Some people think that the ongoing CO2 rise is a result of global warming, rather than caused by human emissions of CO2. They are wrong: the data show that net natural CO2 fluxes are negative, which is to say, nature is removing CO2 from the air, not adding it.

Additionally, the CO2 level is currently rising at a rate of about 2.6 ppmv/year, which is more than an order of magnitude faster than any past natural CO2 increases recorded in ice core data. We know from ice core data that during pre-industrial warming and cooling periods, e.g., from RWP to DACP to MWP to LIA, and also over glaciation cycles, CO2 levels changed at rates measured in just hundredths of a ppmv per year.

That’s two proofs that the current CO2 level increase is not caused by warming. For a deep dive into the topic, with examination of several different lines of evidence, see:

Engelbeen F. et al (2024). “The Human Contribution to Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide: How Human Emissions Are Restoring Vital Atmospheric CO2.” CO2 Coalition. https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/het6n

Most of the confused people who think warming is causing the CO2 level rise make the mistake of confusing the “turnover time” (a/k/a “residence time”) of CO2 in the atmosphere with the “adjustment time.”

The adjustment time can be thought of as the duration of the effect on atmospheric CO2 levels of an addition of CO2 to the atmosphere. It is about 55 ±10 years.

The turnover time is the average time that a carbon atom remains in the atmosphere (3–5 years), before one of three things happens to it:

1. It is temporarily removed, e.g. by being absorbed in water, and then released back into the air, e.g. when the water evaporates; or,

2. It is exchanged for another carbon atom, through bidirectional fluxes between the air and other “carbon reservoirs;” or,

3. It is removed and sequestered for the long term elsewhere, mostly in oceans, biosphere and soils.

Only the 3rd of those mechanisms changes the AMOUNT of CO2 in the air, and so only the 3rd affects the adjustment time.

The 2nd and 3rd mechanisms both affect the isotopic composition of the atmosphere, so they both contribute to the observed 20-year 14C radiocarbon “bomb spike” decay time constant.

All three mechanisms contribute to the very short average turnover time (“residence time”), which is generally reported to be 4 ±1 years.

If someone doesn’t understand that the adjustment time is not the same thing as the residence time, then he can mistakenly conclude that the effect of our 5 ppmv/yr anthropogenic emissions is just 5 × 4 = 20 ppmv, or 13% of the observed increase.

That’s wrong, because (1) merely temporary removals of CO2 from the air do not change the amount of CO2 in the air, and because (2) exchanges of carbon in CO2 in the air for equal amounts of from other reservoirs also do not change the amount of CO2 in the air.
 

The good news is that, contrary to the climate industry’s FUD-based marketing campaign, those rising CO2 levels are beneficial, not harmful. Here are some papers:

https://sealevel.info/negative_social_cost_of_carbon.html

Rising CO2 levels are greening the Earth, so much so that NASA can measure the welcome trend from satellites, in space. Here’s a NASA article about one of the studies:

https://www.nasa.gov/centers-and-facilities/goddard/carbon-dioxide-fertilization-greening-earth-study-finds/

This is a NASA video about it:

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  Dave Burton
September 22, 2026 1:05 pm

The ONLY reason…

Wrong.

September 22, 2026 7:17 am

“60 million tonnes”

So, what do you do with that 60 million tons? Sell it on Ebay? 🙂

Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
September 22, 2026 7:38 am

You load 60 million tonnes, what do you get?

Another day older and deeper in debt

(With apologies to Tennessee Ernie Ford 😉)

Reply to  Paul Hurley
September 22, 2026 7:45 am

Nice. One of the best songs ever!

Colin Belshaw
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
September 22, 2026 12:15 pm

My father – a mining engineer – used to sing the song often . . . off duty and in his cups, of course. And I’m also a mining engineer – my father tried to talk me out of it!! – and now . . . I miss hearing that rather splendid jingle.
I suspect the Chinese have their version that is now being delivered with a full-throated roar . . . their coal production capacity and reserve indicating they are doing nothing other than preparing for war . . . that the West will not be able to counter.
Why do I say that?
Well . . . think about de-industrialisation.

September 22, 2026 7:51 am

Carbon Capture and Storage is just a costly and energy expensive attempt to throw away irrelevantly small amounts of useful plant food. It is promoted by people who have conveniently forgotten the elementary biology they should have learnt in primary school. 

And more CO2 in the atmosphere from now on can only have a minor and diminishing temperature effect on the planet.

https://edmhdotme.wpcomstaging.com/proportions-of-the-temperature-contributions-of-greenhouse-gasses-h2o-co2-n2o-ch4/

Harry Durham
Reply to  emhmailmaccom
September 22, 2026 10:04 am

OK, if you limit achievements to how much of that wicked CO2 is sequestered, and how much of the planet is saved from destruction in the imminent global conflagration, yeah, it’s a waste. But the authors of most of this modern-day Jabberwocky have a different perspective.

However, I think you missed the real objective. There are the campaign donations to Congressmen (for those offended by general terms, I won’t use “Congresspersons”) & Senators, the lobbyists who conduct the funds to the willing recipients, the lawyers who concoct the legalese needed to obfuscate the objectives while achieving the desired legislation, the companies who provide the investments (i.e., bribes) which generate multifold returns (i.e., contracts & grants), and the advertisements in journals, papers and even TV, Oh, and don’t forget the occasional facility that gets into construction in spite of all the work to avoid actually doing something. How can you call the money that creates all those jobs generated during this cycle “wasted?”

John Hultquist
September 22, 2026 8:36 am

“For twenty years,” he begins, “I have argued that CCS …

About 20 years ago a person asked me to review several research proposals by students that had been submitted to his small foundation. A couple of those involved Carbon Capture. I responded that I would not suggest supporting these because the students did not grasp the concept of scale.
The only thing that is different from 20 years ago is the scale of the wasted money.  

Tusten02
September 22, 2026 9:23 am

What a fraudster and scam artist or, possibly, completely ignorant of basic physics! Atmospheric CO2 is miniscule compared to the amount solved in the cold waters of the deep oceans. CO2 has a negligent effect on our climate. The atmosphere is an open system and so are the oceons. Henry, the British physist estabvlished already back in the 19th century that the gas pressures of the atmosphere and the oceons tend to equalize, to mention a few of your scamful propositions.

September 22, 2026 10:02 am

What can one say but : DUH
I guess you can be too Stupid to be accused of corruption .

If you are going to capture CO2 for whatever reason it is obviously literally a thousand times more efficient to do it directly from the stack .