A place for discussion
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A place for discussion
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July 5, 2026 2:30 am
Please consider three concise points about the analysis of “climate” response to emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O, and other trace non-condensing IR-active gases.
About models:
Not one of the pre-stabilized, time-step-iterated, parameter-tuned-to-hindcast climate models has ever had any diagnostic or prognostic authority concerning the influence of rising concentrations of CO2, CH4, and N2O on trends of any climate variable. This is because the step-wise computation of climate system response to incoming solar energy produces a rapid buildup of uncertainty far greater than the effect being investigated, for any emissions scenario. More here.
https://www.regulations.gov/comment/DOE-HQ-2025-0207-0371
About space-based observation:
The high-resolution images from GOES East for Band 16 confirm that two factors dominate the local and overall longwave emission to space: The formation and dissipation of clouds, and the time dependence of skin surface response to the daily pulse of solar heating under clear skies. Attribution of any portion of the reported land or ocean temperature trends to rising concentrations of CO2, CH4, and N2O is not justified, considering how the land + ocean + atmosphere system exhibits such strong characteristics of powered operation, self-regulation, and horizontal mass and energy transport. The impressive influence of the water cycle is implied in these images, especially in time-lapse presentation. More here. Stop the video to read the full text description.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jgjw6ViRq9k
About atmospheric dynamics:
The computed incremental IR absorbing power from rising concentrations of CO2, CH4, N2O and other IR-active trace gases in the atmosphere is not capable of exerting a perceptible and physically persistent “warming” influence on the climate system. This is because dynamic energy conversion (in W/m^2) within the general circulation, operating throughout the depth of the troposphere, massively overwhelms the static IR “warming” tendency (also in W/m^2). Therefore an assumption that TOA longwave emission to space is suppressed as a result (i.e. the core concept of GHG “forcing”), cannot be justified based on the spectral IR absorption characteristics of these gases alone, nor by spectral emission profiles observed from space or from the ground. More here, with background, references, plots, and a time-lapse video for visualizing the issue, based on the ERA5 hourly parameter “vertical integral of energy conversion.”
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1PDJP3F3rteoP99lR53YKp2fzuaza7Niz?usp=drive_link
That is all for now. Skeptics of climate alarm NEED NOT, and in my view OUGHT NOT, concede that *some* sensible heat gain down here is to be expected from what emissions of CO2 and the other IR-active non-condensing trace gases do in the atmosphere. No one knows that.
Thank you for your patient attention.
FYI: At the Mauna Loa Obs. in Hawaii, the concentrations of CO2 and CH4 in dry air are currently 432 ppmv an 1.93 ppmv, respectively. One cubic meter of this air has mass of 1,290 g and contains 0.85 g of CO2 and 1.93 mg of CH4. The small amounts of these greenhouse gases in the atmosphere cannot have any effect on air temperature, weather and climate.
The major processes for warming of the air are: heating of the earth’s surfaces by the absorption of sunlight, contact of air with the surfaces and warming of it by conduction, and by convection the warm air rises and heats up the atmosphere.
The main reason for the low concentrations of these gas in air is that they are absorbed by oceans and land surface waters.
Good points. A similar analogy might be that if you consider the erosion of the rock cliffs of Niagara Falls, the erosion might eventually work it’s way all across Lake Erie to Toledo Ohio. It’s like forecasting that flushing the toilets in the Niagara Falls visitors center is destroying Toledo and therefore requiring that all visitors to the falls must wear diapers instead of using the toilets.
It is hard to tell if the social media posts from certain groups that are still pushing the CO2 / (CH4 is 1234.567 times stronger than CO2) narrative is driven by legitimate research anymore. But with the considerable reductions in SO2 emissions over the last two decades, and the indisputable physics behind Anthropogenic SO2 emission perturbing incoming sunlight, there is no research being done to compute how hot will this planet if all SO2 emissions are removed. The research that is out there explains the effects by statements such as “SO2 make clowd top shinny. at id wefwects sunlii”. Instead of the decades long emission of shipping fuels that were 3.5% Sulfur content were carried into the upper troposphere by convection, combined with water vapor and UV radiation to form Sulfuric Acid aerosols which are highly reflective. A 1% change of incoming across the Pacific Ocean dwarfs just about any forcing one could conjure up.
July 5, 2026 2:33 am
The Stern gang – The gaslighting goes on. Nicholas Stern believes he is the expert’s expert nowadays…
Make Ed Miliband chancellor, ex-chief Treasury adviser tells Andy Burnham
Nicholas Stern joins growing number backing Miliband, saying he has vision and experience to revive economy
He backed Miliband’s moratorium on additional drilling licences in the North Sea for oil and gas – Guardian
The UK is heading in the opposite direction to plain common economic sense. Even Blair felt the need to speak up…
Blair warns Burnham: Don’t raise capital gains tax
Former PM’s think tank tells leader-in-waiting that targeting investors will damage economy Telegraph
Tax increases are the order of the day be it Starmer or Burnham in the chair.
And no word on being absolutely defenceless…
I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt
And there we part company. He has failed on two attempts at the Labour leadership. Against mad Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn. His supposed triumphs in Manchester are in reality the product of his predecessors policies.
His first big idea – given the state of the nation, defence and the economy etc – is to duplicate No 10 (expenses, staff etc) in the North (Manchester). Then it’s on to increasing taxation from the dead to creating a real North South divide.
Burnham has declared war on the South. Your homes and savings are no longer safe
London and the South East already vastly subsidise the rest of the country. The answer is to liberate the North, not seize southern wealth – Telegraph
I wrote him off a long time ago. And he is, apparently, better than the entire 400 plus Labour MPs who are already in the House. That certainly beats the Tories.
And don’t forget our Andy rang around 26 constituencies trying to persuade the sitting MP to stand down. He got lucky on no 27 in Makerfield.
Then you are not a Lib Dem… In Oxfordshire they went to the High Court to get English CSG flags banned during the World Cup
Unauthorised flags – High Court injunction granted on 23 June 2026
Their sister council in West Berkshire is giving newbuild properties to Afghans and Ukrainians who leapfrog over the thousands who have been on the waiting list for social housing for years. We have military veterans sleeping on the streets. They never get a thought.
“Nicholas Stern joins growing number backing Miliband, saying he has vision and experience to revive economy”
This has to be one of the greatest lying-by-omission quotes I’ve ever seen. Nurtured by decades of BBC- and Guardian-thinking at the Satanic level, to which only the London elites can aspire. If our football team was at this level, we’d be hammering Mexico 10-0 tonight in Mexico City.
So what is the full no-omissions, reality quote, one might ask ?
“Nicholas Stern joins growing number backing Miliband, saying he has vision and experience to revive economy, which is how he knows exactly how to continue to destroy the UK economy”.
Congratulations Old Nick, you are the GOAT:
Miliband has vision!
Stern just demonstrated his own lack of vision. Thinking Miliband has vision is about as divorced from reality as one can get.
The UK is in Big Trouble. It is being led by Leftwing fools and imbeciles, who think they have it all figured out. They don’t, they just think they do.
Stupidity must be a contagious disease.
July 5, 2026 5:00 am
Paul Pelosi is doing his part to get vehicles off the road. It seems he mounted a hit and run on a parked Tesla in Yountville making it inoperable and then he drove off before his own car conked out.
https://www.kcra.com/article/nancy-pelosi-husband-paul-charge-napa-county-hit-and-run/71823395
