Sustainability Professors: Global Warming Might Force Restriction of Agricultural Water Use

Essay by Eric Worrall

But this might result in less food.

Water conservation works, but climate change is outpacing it: Phoenix, Denver and Las Vegas offer a glimpse of the future

Published: April 8, 2026 10.19pm AEST
Renee Obringer Assistant Professor in the Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Penn State
Dave White Director of the Global Institute of Sustainability and Innovation, Arizona State University

When a drought turns into an urban water crisis, a city’s first step is often to limit lawn watering and launch a campaign to encourage everyone to conserve. It might raise water-use rates or offer incentives for installing low-flow devices.

While demand management techniques like these have had a lot of success in reducing water use, our new research suggests that they may not be effective enough in the face of climate change.

Research shows that the region is likely to experience more intense, frequent droughts that last longer due to climate change, putting the water supplies for farms, people and energy systems at risk. 

These solutions, however, take time and money to implement. Desalination is incredibly expensive. A recently built desalination plant in Carlsbad, California, cost US$1 billion – four times the initial estimate.

Other solutions, such as reducing agricultural water use, require significant buy-in from local farmers and could result in producing less food.

Read more: https://theconversation.com/water-conservation-works-but-climate-change-is-outpacing-it-phoenix-denver-and-las-vegas-offer-a-glimpse-of-the-future-279837

I really wish the climate micromanagers would keep their hands off agriculture. How many historical learning examples are required to demonstrate government agricultural policies which reduce productivity always end in disaster?

The solution to lack of water availability is to provide more water, not restrictions on farming. Israelis, Gulf State Arabs and the Chinese have all found ways to make water supply affordable. Desalination, long pipelines, whatever it takes.

If desalination is required but is too expensive, instead of giving up, figure out why it is too expensive. Examine the reason for that high cost. Is the problem that all the components have to be imported from China? Or is the energy too expensive? Both of these problems are fixable.

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William Capron
April 12, 2026 10:13 am

First, at $250 million, was that too expensive? If the government could learn to propose a budget and then meet it, now that might be inexpensive. The ineptitude of the government is the real problem in that example. The government never seems to get anything done on time and in budget; so why give them more money … so they can take the planned inexpensive and futz it up? And never admit responsibility; and then tell us how expensive climate change is.

Dieter Schultz
Reply to  William Capron
April 12, 2026 2:37 pm

Part of the reason the Carlsbad desalination plant cost so much was because of the insane level of law suits they had to deal with. Israel can, and does, bring in desalination plants and fresh water at a fraction of the cost that the Carlsbad plant does.

Curious George
April 12, 2026 10:17 am

Does a hypothetical warmer climate produce more or less rain?

Reply to  Curious George
April 12, 2026 10:59 am

Yes! Both! According to “experts.”

SxyxS
Reply to  Curious George
April 12, 2026 2:33 pm

It also produces less and more snow.(and twice as worse as in the rest of the world / than expected)

Reply to  Curious George
April 12, 2026 2:55 pm

Just guessing but I bet it depends on which region you want to focus on. Some will get more and some will get less.

April 12, 2026 10:53 am

If it’s an ‘”urban water crisis” why are they focusing on ‘water’ and not ‘urban’? Seems if we look, we find a lot of other human problems involve ‘urban’. Could it be possible that policies that encourage urban and suburban development might be at issue?

NAAAAHHHHHHHHH!

starzmom
Reply to  Gino
April 12, 2026 12:31 pm

Phoenix, Denver and Las Vegas have always been places where there is little water. It wasn’t until big dams and big pipelines were built to allow them to grow up, that they did. Maybe that was a bad idea.

Scissor
Reply to  starzmom
April 12, 2026 12:55 pm

Rain and snow supposedly coming to Denver next week. Every little bit helps.

Dieter Schultz
Reply to  starzmom
April 12, 2026 2:25 pm

Phoenix, Denver and Las Vegas have always been places where there is little water.

Vegas has been VERY successful in conserving water, 2x’ing or more their population while staying within their originally negotiated water allocation.

The last I read, about a decade ago, they reprocess about 1/2 of their waste water (yes they lose the water used for irrigation but they mandate low-water tolerant yards) and, by agreement with the other signatories on the agreement, return it to Lake Mead to be used again.

starzmom
Reply to  Dieter Schultz
April 12, 2026 2:50 pm

Maybe they should reprocess all of the their waste water. Wichita Falls, Texas, does that.

Reply to  starzmom
April 12, 2026 4:42 pm

I consider those bad ideas. The environmental destruction caused by urbanization is, IMHO, significantly worse than any negative climate effect of CO2.

MarkW
Reply to  Gino
April 12, 2026 5:52 pm

Care to name what this “environmental destruction” is?

Reply to  starzmom
April 12, 2026 4:58 pm

You forgot California and especially Los Angeles. SoCal gets upwards of 30% of it’s water from the Colorado river. After polluting their own ground water to the point that the LA basin cannot drink its own groundwater without treatment.

MarkW
Reply to  Gino
April 12, 2026 5:51 pm

What’s your solution? Just get rid of the people you consider to be excess?

April 12, 2026 11:01 am

Research shows that the region is likely to experience more intense, frequent droughts

that last longer due to climate change, putting the water supplies for farms, people and

energy systems at risk. 

_______________________________________________________________________

The IPCC AR4 Chapter 10 Page 750 pdf4 says:

Mean Precipitation
       For a future warmer climate, the current generation of
       models indicates that precipitation generally increases
       in the areas of regional tropical precipitation maxima
       (such as the monsoon regimes) and over the tropical
       Pacific in particular, with general decreases in the
       subtropics,  and  increases  at  high  latitudes  as a
       consequence of a general intensification of the global
       hydrological cycle. Globally averaged mean water vapour,
       evaporation and precipitation are projected to increase. 

That’s hardly a recipe more intense more frequent and
longer lasting droughts. Who writes this stuff, Madison
Avenue wannabes?

Reply to  Steve Case
April 12, 2026 1:26 pm

The IPCC has about 400 gnomes in Bern, Switzerland.

Walter Sobchak
April 12, 2026 11:06 am

The real cost of the desalination plant in California was the years of permitting and litigation.

We won’t begin to recover until the last lawyer is strangled with the entrails of the last environmentalist.

Bryan A
Reply to  Walter Sobchak
April 12, 2026 12:40 pm

Desalination should be practically free. Since the water is from the ocean they should simply install offshore wind to power the process…I mean Wind power Is Cheap…Right??? 😆🤔😘

SwedeTex
Reply to  Walter Sobchak
April 12, 2026 1:14 pm

Heck, if it only increased four-fold that’s good for California. The fact it was a CA project is the first clue it wasn’t well-designed, well-managed and had so many cost centers related to woke policies and Marxist thinking it was doomed.

cgh
April 12, 2026 11:14 am

Eric, is there any lie too egregious for these academic politicians to utter? Their statements seem to become more ridiculous the further we get from Paris Accord 2015. Whom do they imagine they are persuading with this tripe?

Bryan A
Reply to  cgh
April 12, 2026 12:36 pm

They ARE the modern equivalent to the Snake Oil Salesman of the past.

cgh
Reply to  Bryan A
April 12, 2026 1:25 pm

I agree. But there’s a difference. Snake oil salesmen had no permanent effect on the public other than shattering the notion of patent medicine. But the climatologists have destroyed the institution of peer review as pertains to climate and weather. This act of intellectual vandalism may last a very long time. For example, who is ever going to trust Michael Mann to be honest about anything? In the view of much of the world, he is permanently labelled a liar just as was the case with Charles Dawson after his creation of the Piltdown Man fraud.

SxyxS
Reply to  cgh
April 12, 2026 2:41 pm

Your question is too egregious because a lie can never be.

Goebbels explained it very well :
” The bigger a lie the more people will believe it. “

Bryan A
April 12, 2026 12:33 pm

It isn’t Climate Change outpacing Water Conservation in the selected cities. It’s population growth creating a lack of supply. Between the 1930’s and now demand has risen exponentially there
Phoenix in 1930 had a population of 48,110 but has blossomed to a burgeoning 1.6M in 2025.
Denver in 1930 had a population of 287,861 and has seen moderate growth to 740,613 in 2025.
Las Vegas in 1930 had just 5,165 which grew to 25,000 when Hoover was under construction. Today Las Vegas has exploded to more than 2.4M in the metropolitan area.
All those people need water, all those people use water every day. It isn’t Climate Change affecting water availability, it’s the desirability to live in those selected locations. Older populations like warmer climates for joint ache relief and younger people like winter sports. (After 30 years of skiing and knee joint abuse they’ll move from Denver to Las Vegas or Phoenix.)

John Hultquist
Reply to  Bryan A
April 12, 2026 12:43 pm

 The Denver metropolitan area population in 2026 is approximately 3,025,000.

cgh
Reply to  Bryan A
April 12, 2026 1:32 pm

Bryan, water is indeed the key limiting factor for all urban development throughout history. When the Roman acqueducts were broken during a siege in the early 6th century, the city’s population shrank by 90 per cent to a mere 30,000. Shortage of water infrastructure destroyed the city of Rome. It was never replaced until the late 19th century and the beginning of the city’s recovery. Throughout the middle ages, Rome was a thinly populated city of mostly ruins.

Rud Istvan
April 12, 2026 12:39 pm

The professors are both geographically and historically challenged. Phoenix and Las Vegas do get their water from the Colorado River system, but Denver does not.

The Colorado River water issues are serious and will get worse. When the Colorado compact was drawn up, the west was wetter than it is now—unfortunately, the historical record left by native Americans says this is part of a natural cycle, nothing to do with rising atmospheric CO2. And Phoenix and Las Vegas were MUCH less populated.
The inevitable solutions are two fold, but unlikely to be self imposed—looks like Interior will soon be stepping in. Limit Colorado river dependent agriculture (for example cotton and alfalfa in arid Arizona), and limit further population expansion in Colorado river dependent regions like Phoenix and Las Vegas via water limited construction and golf course permitting.

Erik Magnuson
Reply to  Rud Istvan
April 12, 2026 12:53 pm

Denver does indeed get water from the Colorado River. Part of the justification for building the Moffat Tunnel was to use the pilot tunnel carry water from the western slopes of the Front Range (i.e. Colorado River watershed) to Denver.

Scissor
Reply to  Rud Istvan
April 12, 2026 1:00 pm

Actually, Denver does gets a significant amount of water from the Colorado river basin. It’s transported under the Continental Divide via a couple of tunnels.

After a few especially wet years, last year and this year look to be problematic for Denver. The long term problems for Phoenix and Vegas will get worse as you say.

Reply to  Rud Istvan
April 12, 2026 2:59 pm

I might be mistaken but doesn’t LA also get water from the Colorado River?
Corrections welcome.

Mac
Reply to  Gunga Din
April 12, 2026 3:49 pm

Yes it comes through the aqueduct. LA also gets significant water from northern California.
I had a patient in the 80’s who was an executive with LA metropolitan water district.
He told me the politics with water in California was unbelievable and nasty,

Reply to  Mac
April 12, 2026 5:05 pm

Old saying, whiskey is for drinkin’ water is for fightin’.

Reply to  Gunga Din
April 12, 2026 5:04 pm

30%+ of SoCal water comes from the colorado river.

April 12, 2026 12:49 pm

Hmmm….climate change…not population growth ?

Reply to  DMacKenzie
April 12, 2026 5:06 pm

nevah!!! lol

SamGrove
April 12, 2026 1:06 pm

A warming climate is produced by warming oceans and warming oceans emit more water vapor. More clouds, more rain.

Bob
April 12, 2026 1:34 pm

So let me understand this. You build a city in desert/arid region. A place people flock to to escape the cold and you blame water scarcity on global warming. You knuckleheads.

Reply to  Bob
April 12, 2026 5:06 pm

You mean people actually PREFER warmer areas?

April 12, 2026 2:53 pm

Sounds like they’re trying to use “Global Warming” as an excuse to make the predictions of droughts and famines come true.

April 12, 2026 4:48 pm

Wait until the food trucks stop arriving and see what these urban parasites have to say.

April 12, 2026 5:45 pm

We’re already seeing the initial impacts and they include a decline in the winter rainfall zone across southern Australia, which is clearly an impact of climate change, but also a decrease in run-off. 
 Although we’re getting say a 20 per cent decrease in rainfall in some areas of Australia, that’s translating to a 60 per cent decrease in the run-off into the dams and rivers. That’s because the soil is warmer because of global warming and the plants are under more stress and therefore using more moisture. So even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and our river systems, and that’s a real worry for the people in the bush. If that trend continues then I think we’re going to have serious problems, particularly for irrigation.” Tim Flannery, 2007

Shortly before a series of exceptionally wet years for large parts of Australia that caused dams to not only fill, but to overfloweth (likely in part due to underinvestment in water management and a reluctance to release water from flood mitigation dams prior to major rains due to the mindset that Flannery himself was a zealot of). Running on a false understanding of how the climate works, it is unsurprising that they make such flawed predictions.