Fake News: The BBC Pushes Reef Scare Again

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

h/t Ian Cunningham

Just in time for COP30 – what a coincidence!

The Great Barrier Reef is headed for a “grim future” and will suffer a “rapid coral decline” by 2050 but parts may recover if global warming is kept below 2C, a new study has found.

Researchers at the University of Queensland (UQ) used modelling to simulate the lifecycles of certain coral species and found that some were better at adapting to warmer oceans and could help new coral grow.

Reefs near cooler-water currents were also more resilient, giving a “glimmer of hope” to the natural wonder, which has suffered severe climate-induced heat stress in recent years.

The study warned that curbing carbon emissions was crucial to allow coral to recover and avoid a “near collapse” of the reef.

Dr Yves-Marie Bozec, who led the research, said the modelling of more than 3,800 individual reefs that make up the Great Barrier Reef looked at their “eco-evolutionary dynamics”. This included how corals interact with each other, how they deal with warmer water and corals in naturally cooler areas.

“We ran all of those factors with the most up-to-date climate projections – and the news was not good,” he said.

“We forecast a rapid coral decline before the middle of this century regardless of the emissions scenario.”

The Great Barrier Reef is one of the world’s most biodiverse ecosystems, stretching more than 2,300km (1,400 miles) off Australia’s north-east coast.

It has suffered four significant marine heatwaves between 2016 and 2022, causing much of its coral to expel the algae which gives them life and colour – a process called bleaching, which is often fatal.

A recent report found that parts of the Great Barrier Reef had suffered the largest annual decline in coral cover since records began nearly 40 years ago.

Dr Bozec said some parts of the reef “may partially recover after 2050, but only if ocean warming is sufficiently slow to allow natural adaptation to keep pace with temperature changes”.

“Adaptation may keep pace if global warming does not exceed two degrees by 2100. For that to happen, more action is needed globally to reduce carbon emissions which are driving climate change.”

Dr Bozec said: “The window for meaningful action is closing rapidly but it hasn’t shut”.

Under the Paris agreement, almost 200 nations have pledged to limit global temperature rises to 1.5C and to keep them “well below” 2C above those recorded in pre-industrial times, generally considered to mean the late 19th Century.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx274lj661lo

Now I wonder why 2C has so much significance? Or 2050? Could it be that they are crucial elements of the Paris Agreement?

Why not 2060, or 2070, or 2045?

And given that we have supposedly already has 1.5C of warming since the 1800s and the world’s coral remains as abundant ever, I hardly think another half a degree will make the slightest difference.

This new study, as seems to be the case with every alarmist study these days, does not analyse historical data. Instead it, in its own words,  simulates coral eco-evolutionary dynamics across 3800 reefs of Australia’s Great Barrier Reef under current climate projections. In other words, good old computer modelling!

You might have though that if the world’s coral, or the Great Barrier Reef itself, was already under so much stress, the data would be readily available to prove it. After all, we have supposedly had four significant marine heatwaves in the last decade alone on the GBR.

But the study does attempt to analyse or present this data, because the authors know full well the answers would destroy their agenda – not to mention the chance for more grant money.

The whole basis of their argument is, in any case, illogical. The world’s coral has been in existence for thousands of years. The GBR, for instance, is believed to have started growing about 8000 to 10000 years ago, as sea levels rose at the end of the Ice Age. It actually sits atop older limestone platforms from Pleistocene-era reefs.

The reef is remarkably resilient, having endured multiple cycles of bleaching and recovery and climate swings. The same of course applies to reefs elsewhere in the world.

Corals would in fact thrive in a warmer world, spreading to seas that are currently too cold.

But this study misunderstands the science of ocean warming. Seas are not warmed by the atmosphere, but by the sun. That is why tropical seas are warmer than the North Sea – because the sun’s energy is more concentrated in the Tropics. Indeed seas warm the atmosphere not the reverse.

Also the higher sea levels predicted would offset higher sea temperatures. Corals are most affected by heat when exposed to the sun when sea levels drop, which occurs during El Nino on the GBR. Higher sea levels would therefore protect the reef from excessive exposure to the sun.

I’ll leave it to Dr Peter Ridd to summarise the facts, rather then the myth the BBC peddles: