Human ingenuity outpaces modern warming.
A comprehensive new data analysis (Walkowiak et al., 2025) involving European countries finds it takes less than 18 years for humans to adapt to a 1°C increase in mean annual temperature. Consequently, exposure to excessive heat has become less and less deadly.
Supporting this conclusion, a 2018 study involving 305 locations across 10 countries (1985-2012) affirmed “a decrease in heat-mortality impacts over the past decades,” as “heat-related mortality [fractions, AFs] decreased in all countries.”
Image Source: Vicedo-Cabrera et al., 2018
Many heatwave or excess heat mortality studies fail to account for the human capacity to adapt to extremely hot temperatures via the expansion of access to air conditioning, heat-shielding structures and building materials, etc.
This (intentional?) failure artificially inflates modern heat exposure risks so as to make it appear heat wave mortality has become more and more of a problem.
The real risk is cold exposure. Since the 1980s humans have been 20 times more likely to die from exposure to excessively cold temperatures than to excessive heat.
So-called “green” policies that insist on adding heat pumps to homes (due to their lower dependence on fossil fuels) impose more risks to humans, as heat pumps notoriously cannot keep structures warm enough during cold spells.
As heating demand and costs rise, there will likely be more susceptibility to cold-related deaths in the future. In contrast, heatwave-related mortality will likely continue to decline.
It seems to me that Britain’s The Lancet, among other publications, publicized a survey just a few years ago that showed excessive cold was far more likely to be fatal than extreme heat. And in case anyone has failed to notice it, the majority of the world’s population resides in regions where normal temperatures are more likely to be on the warm side than cold. In fact, the seven most populous countries—India, China, the US, Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria and Brazil—all lie in temperate or outright tropical climate zones. Meanwhile, colder regions containing Russia, Canada, northern Scandinavia, Alaska are distinctly underpopulated, nor do they show any tendencies to attract more residents. Such facts are either lost completely on climate alarmists or conveniently ignored when they pounce on some short-term heat wave as being irrefutable proof of global warming—man-made, of course.
Oh don’t be absurd, no one is going to die because their heat pump failed during a blizzard. They can just go out to their car and keep warm in it. Oh they have an electric car? OK. Never mind.
I grew up on the frigid Canadian prairies. One thing you get taught early is never let your gas tank get below half full. Its your lifeline when everything else fails. Electric cars sadly tend to get rather inefficient at -40.
Even in spring or fall ‘Never leave the house without a jacket along.’
No, it will be OK with the electric car, they burn for a long time with a lot of heat.
LOL
I grew up in Sydney Australia.
Never gets “cold”.. and when its warm enough, you go down the beach. 🙂
How inconvenient. They can fix that though, by pushing more and more Ruinables, which make electricity prices sky rocket, and also are likely to cause power failures. Those on the edge financially might not be able to afford to run their AC, and would be less likely to have backup power available, exposing those people to possible heat stroke or even death.
Problem solved!
While this would be a win for our side the idea that added CO2 into the atmosphere will cause increased heat so severe that we will see increased deaths is pure BS. According to them earth’s average global temperature has risen 1.3 degrees Celsius since pre industrial times, they use 1850. I understand last year the increase was 1.5 degrees Celsius, guess we must have lost a bunch of CO2. In any case that is 1.3 degrees Celsius in 175 years. Give me a break in my home town we adapt from 100+ degrees Fahrenheit in summer to -20 degrees Fahrenheit in winter. That is a 120 degree change in 6 months and we do it every year. Keep in mind humans are not the only source for added CO2. Our ability to predict extreme highs and lows is excellent, there is damn little excuse to not prepare yourself. A guy can pickup a window air conditioner for three to five hundred bucks.
Thank you electricity and air conditioning!
Electric heat pumps (also including electric AC).
And when a black out occurs?