By P Gosselin
Higher Than 1981!
An analysis of summer sea ice areas in the West Arctic including the NW Passage by the Canadian government ,shows that ice area levels remain above average.
Hat-tip: Snowfan
The Canadian Ice Service data show that the sea ice areas in the period from June 25 to July 16, 2025 continue to be above average (far right) and even larger than at the beginning of the measurements in 1981 (far left).
This year, for the period June 25 – July 16, the levels are the third highest in over 20 years. Data source: Canada Ice Service for sea ice areas in the Western Arctic.
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No surprise.
In 2010, Arctic expert Akasofu published a paper showing cyclicality, and the likely error of projecting Arctic ice off just a few decades of satellite observation (itself problematic for two reasons).
Later, Curry and Wyatt published their Arctic ‘stadium wave’ paper, showing Arctic cyclicality but not everywhere all at once.
And I long ago summarized the Northwest Passage climate ‘problem’ with many visuals in essay ‘Northwest Passage’ in ebook Blowing Smoke.
How inconvenient for the story fabricators of the climate fraud.
Better be careful showing your climate crisis skepticism.
Apparently, that makes you “more likely to rank higher on spectrum of narcissism, machiavellianism and psychopathy” according to a new paper in the journal Climatic Change.
Story tip
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/personality-plays-a-role-in-whether-you-believe-in-climate-change-study-finds-1.7570204
Sheesh.
Did I really need to say “BULLSHIT story tip”?
“I’m not a psychopath, I’m a high functioning sociopath. Do your research!”
Does that mean you’re a Jeffrey Epstein rather than a Benjamin Netanyahu?
And we also know that climate change is very detrimental for tree frogs, bunny rabbits, butterflies, honey bees, polar bears, penguins, crops, humans and every form of “good” life.
For life like ticks, fleas, mosquitoes, roaches, rats, weeds and viruses, climate change is a paradise and the best thing that ever happened.
In other words, ALL bad life prefers climate optimums like this but good life would rather have something closer to an Ice Age with CO2 levels barely above the minimum level to survive!
Mr:
Thanks for the link.
Another misleading article title whose intent is to demonize the climate crisis skeptical community. The lead author admits during an interview that the findings are not clinically significant. They used an over 100 item questionaire to sort the ~1300 Canadians in the poll for the Big-5 personality traits. Silly arm-chair psychology, but I’m sure it will make the climate alarmist crowd feel superior.
And the climate questions were biased; so GIGO. [garbage in. garbage out]
Also, from a link in the cbc.ca/news… article: A recent Canadian poll shows climate issues have fallen somewhat in importance over the past 3 years. Will they self-diagnose? LOL
I am a retired university academic. About fifteen years ago, I said in some lecture notes that there was ‘a grubby little corner of academia’ that pretended to study the psychology of ‘climate change denial’. Since then, that ‘grubby little corner’ has grown into big business – whole degree programmes, specialist modules, conferences, journals, peer-reviewers by the eager thousand. I have watched with amazement, revulsion, and an expectation that truth and sanity would eventually re-assert themselves. There is certainly hope. Thank you to WUWT for helping.
Revulsion is right! Pretending to psychoanalyse ‘climate change deniers’ is the first step in eventually rounding up anyone who disagrees with propaganda and sending them off to re-education.
Any researchers doing this should be ashamed of themselves.
[deleted]
The overall sea ice extent at the North Pole is very low this summer. So if one part of the Arctic has more sea ice than usual, other regions must have significantly less ice than normal.
That not correct.
Current Arctic sea ice level is above that of 2011, 2012, 2019. 2020, 2021 and 2024 and and only about half a standard deviation (17 years) down from the 17 year average.
There is also FAR more Arctic sea ice than there has been for nearly all the last 10,000 years.
The overall sea ice extent at the North Pole is very low this summer
I’m not sure how you’re reaching that conclusion:
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today
Today, same day in 2024, 2012 and 2007 all land at right about the same level:
From the NSIDC:
As of July 19, the current sea ice extent is higher than only five other years (2011, 2012, 2019, 2020, 2021). Surpassing those years isn’t exactly a high standard.
And particularly high in Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian and Laptev.
Extent is far higher than for most of the last 10,000 years.
My comment earlier was on 16th July data.
Current extent is still well within one stdev of the 17 year average.. and well above most of the last 10,000 years.
That red segment at the end of the chart is fake.
Its an estimate. Draw your own.
Current levels are only slightly down from the peak in 1979 and the LIA.
Or do you DENY that the 1979 extent was only just a bit down from the LIA, despite what Icelandic sea ice data shows.
Here’s a chart from another study showing the average since 1980 being above the Holocene range
The McKay 2008 paper found a contrast between western Arctic trends (like in their Chukchi Sea site) and those in the eastern Arctic, which show different behavior throughout the Holocene. So you can’t use this study to speak for the whole Arctic system.
What’s also very interesting is that the study clearly states the sediment proxy resolution is decadal to centennial, yet here you are using it to claim that current sea ice values are higher than most of the Holocene.
If someone here, for example, tried to splice instrumental data onto proxy reconstructions to argue that today’s warming is unusually high, people would be furious.
But when the roles are reversed, and the argument supports a “cooler present,” suddenly no one bats an eye.
[deleted]
Same pattern seen at both sides of the Arctic.
Holocene had far less Arctic sea ice all over.. A fact that rabid alarmist sea-ice worriers cannot allow themselves to accept.
Holocene was also far warmer that now for most of the time..
Time to fact reality that we are currently in a cooler period of the last 10,000 years, and that the only crisis would be if the the world started cooling even further.
Sea ice off Greenland…
And 3 different regions…
Barents Sea
(learn and remember…) Higher PIP25 index means more sea ice.
If this study uses standard radiocarbon dating conventions, then “present” in BP refers to the year 1950. That means the data stops well before the modern era, so it cannot be used to support the claim that “we are currently in a cooler period of the last 10,000 years.”
Read the text.. try basic comprehension. !!
There is a massive amount of data and studies showing the Holocene has been much warmer than now.
Ignorance and your climate change denial doesn’t help your cultism.
Yes, yes we know, climate science knows – you keep posting those graphs as though it proves that modern warming is not unprecedented with some warming millennia ago.
Ever heard of the HCO?
A period following the Ice Age peak where TSI over the NH increased significantly, and caused warming over that hemisphere in partcicular and to a lesser extent over the SH
Well, irrespective of your *supposed* ignorance of it, you have seen that fact on here, most recently on this thread only 2 weeks ago. …..
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/07/08/new-study-the-arctic-was-9c-warmer-than-today-during-the-holocene-thermal-maximum/
The NH during the HCO was receiving in excess of 25 W/m^2 extra summertime TSI, and at 65 deg N a peak of an extra 50 W/m^2 due to the tilting of Earth towards the Sun maximising during June, July and August.
Compare that to today’s anthro CO2 forcing of around 4 W/m^2.
The NH contains by far the most land-mass (68 vs 32%) and solar heating is of course maximised over land.
The significance of 65 deg N is that that is the Earth’s latitude of max land mass and of wintertime snow/ice accretion. Hence an earlier spring and summer melt, and consequently over hundreds of years a warming Arctic climate.
AND reduced sea-ice.
I did read the text. I also looked at the x-axis, which clearly says “Age (cal ka BP).”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Before_Present
Also, much of the Barents Sea has been effectively ice free during some recent summers (see image below). Notice as well that the 1981–2010 median ice edge doesn’t even include most of the Barents Sea in September.
Yes the late 1970 was a period of extreme sea ice, only a bit less than the LIA extremes.
But the current level is still far above most of the last 10,000 years.
What don’t you comprehend about …
“evolution of sea ice cover from ice-free conditions during the early Holocene to prolonged seasonal sea ice presence in the region today”
Seems pretty straightforward to anyone without a deep-seated cult/mental block against reality.
And showing the minimum sea ice in the Barents when you must know it is chock full during most of the winter, is basically confirming you know there is currently prolonged seasonal sea ice presence and are just trying to slither your way around that fact. A very sad attempt !!
Data from one position off Cape Barrow!
Plenty of other from all over the Arctic posted above.
Thus you self prove, that you didn’t read the entire presentation.
??
Oops! That should be July 18, and it’s actually higher than 2024 as well, so that makes six years total. Still, that’s not exactly a strong showing.
1979 was a year of very high Artic sea ice extent, almost up there with the extreme levels of the LIA.
The slight drop from the extreme high levels of the LIA and 1979, has been a boon for sea life in the Arctic as sea creature last in evidence at the end of the MWP are just starting to return to the Arctic waters.
I’m not sure what you’re trying to prove here. Are you suggesting that Arctic sea ice level is a good proxy for global temperature? It seems like a pretty crap one to me, especially since thermometers were invented in the early 1700s, and daily/hourly measurements are taken from satellites using oxygen brightness as the proxy.
Yes, the peripheral ice areas are significantly lower than usual.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=524135;image
Who cares? It would be better for the biosphere if all the ice melted away, damn the water levels.
Since about 30-odd million years ago our planet has been much cooler and drier than the previous half billion years.
If the plants and animals could vote they would definitely prefer the conditions of the Cretaceous than the Quaternary.
What about all those great NW passage shipping opportunities they talked about.
The Canadian Ice Service data indicating above-average sea ice in the West Arctic and NWP for June 25–July 16, 2025, reflects a short-term anomaly likely driven by regional weather patterns and ice drift from the Last Ice Area. However, this does not contradict the well-documented long-term decline in Arctic sea ice, with summer extent shrinking by ~12% per decade and multi-year ice at historic lows. The 2025 data should be interpreted cautiously, as it represents a snapshot before the peak melt season and does not alter projections of increasing ice-free periods by 2050. For a comprehensive understanding, focus on long-term trends and peer-reviewed studies rather than isolated data points or narratives amplified on platforms like X
Grok
Peer-reviewed, no doubt from accredited ‘climate scientist’s’, huh?
The Holocene glacial maximum was roughly 20,000 years ago. We may have more ice today than about 6000 years ago, but the long term trend is still down (until it reverses).
What you call “long term”.. ?
Current levels are still in the top 5-10% of the last 10,000 years.
Only a bit down from the extreme high extent of the LIA. !
Arctic sea ice since 2005
PIOMAS since 2011
Could someone please show this to that 172 pilot Shaheer Cassim?
Dang, I was hoping the northwest passage would soon become open all year. The drop in shipping costs would have saved all of us money.
“It will without doubt have come to your Lordship’s knowledge that a considerable change of climate, inexplicable at present to us, must have taken place in the Circumpolar Regions, by which the severity of the cold that has for centuries past enclosed the seas in the high northern latitudes in an impenetrable barrier of ice has been during the last two years, greatly abated.
(This) affords ample proof that new sources of warmth have been opened and give us leave to hope that the Arctic Seas may at this time be more accessible than they have been for centuries past, and that discoveries may now be made in them not only interesting to the advancement of science but also to the future intercourse of mankind and the commerce of distant nations.”
President of the Royal Society, London, to the Admiralty, 20th November, 1817
Thanks to John Daly for this. Note the date!
Climate change (and history) only began in in 1975.
Apparently.
John Daly was not part of the Royal Society in London. He simply amplified that 1817 quote on his website.
Speaking of his site, on the What The Stations Say page, Daly includes this passage:
But if you actually examine some of the graphs he uses to argue against polar warming, they show warming, like Franz Josef Island:
http://www.john-daly.com/stations/franz-js.gif
The post 1980 temperatures are clearly higher than in earlier decades. So Daly’s own examples end up supporting the very model predictions he was trying to discredit.
And Arctic amplification isn’t even a symptom of greenhouse gas warming specifically. It is a symptom of any warming, regardless of the cause, due to the associated albedo effect.
Yet Artic sea ice extent remains much higher than for most of the Holocene.
Yes, around 1979 was a cold period.. The end of the New Ice Age scare.
Coldest period in basically all NH raw temperature data.
Bottom of the AMO cycle.
Sea ice extent not that far from the extreme highs of the LIA.
Your graph of ice extent at Franz Josef Land shows no decline whatever. You are lying.
No, that’s a temperature graph. There is a giant label saying ‘Temp [C]’.
You’ll have to do better than just label your charts clearly to convince Graeme….
I admit it when I get something wrong. Maybe you should do the same.
The graph only shows warming if you tilt it.
Station data here.
And the trend from 1961-1999 is 0.28C/decade.
Ekrandon
when I started posting here 12+ years ago or so there were several believers who insisted Arctic ice was collapsing and we would soon have ice free summers. I challenged them time and time again to give an actual prediction of when this would happen. Over and over they refused, then one finally agreed to do it. The condition I gave was that if he was right I would never post again if he was right and he would never post again if I was right. Well Tony Mcloud doesn’t post here anymore. Neither do most the other frauds that posted back then.
Sure, some internet commenters made exaggerated or premature predictions about Arctic sea ice. But that’s not how scientific reality is assessed. Meaningful projections come from researchers, whether independent or affiliated with institutions, who have seriously studied the nuances of polar sea ice.
The fact that a few forum users got it wrong doesn’t discredit the well documented decline in Arctic sea ice.
That trend is robust, and a possible future strong decline could very well bring about ice free Arctic summers within the coming decades.
Ok, you tell us when the North Pole will be ice free in the summer?
The trend is robustly ZERO for the last nearly 20 years, after the Arctic RECOVERED from extreme high in 1979
And the current level is far above that of nearly all the last 10,000 years.
Most of the “Arctic sea ice worriers” have NOT seriously studied Arctic sea ice, or they would know that.
“and a possible future… blah , blah”
Prophecies are best left to Nostra-dumb-ass.
Bold claim, considering you’ve misrepresented every one of your own citations.
If you DENY that most of the Holocene had sea ice levels far less than now…
… you haven’t seriously studied Arctic sea ice.
I have not misrepresented anything, just posted data that you don’t like because of your indoctrinated sea-ice worrier lack of mentality.
Here is a picture of the label. I hope this helps.
Yep, you’re right.
Your graph no signs of warming whatever. You are still a liar.
Is that better?
There is warming. The cold extremes become less severe, and temperatures that were high in the late 50s/early 60s are standard in the 90s.
Temperature were much higher for nearly all the Holocene.
Only the LIA and the period around 1979 were cooler than now.
If so, why does your graph not show it?
There is a trend. Daly just uses a more expanded y axis on his graphs, which makes the warming much harder to see.
So a tiny trend out of the COLDEST period in 10,000 years, apart from the LIA that is.
Try not to PANIC like a Little-Chicken !
You are just a serial liar. You’re also a prize tosspot. What has John Daly not being a member of the royal Society have to do with anything. People like you need mental help
Oh dear. The whole Arctic sea ice as the “canary in the coal mine” thing as well as the “Arctic death spiral” hasn’t panned out very well for the climate caterwaulers. And the polar bears are fine, so they’re out. They’ve been reduced to becoming weather nags and whingeing about “climate justice” nonsense. Sad.
The Danish Met Institute shows average arctic temperatures have been running below the 1959/2002 average for the past 10 years, and summer temperature have been below average over the past 30 years. The decline in sea ice has also levelled off in recent years.
Extended sea ice? Must be because ice no longer melts when temperatures rise, it extends. And when it at some given point does melt it instantly freezes because rising temperatures are below 0°C.
Ecotards physics straight out of the looney bin…CO2 is truely magical stuff, like mushrooms…
King canuto spoke, and yes he was high on smoke
All depends what data you believe and what period you look at doesn’t it. Minimum volume has pretty much halved in this graphic and shows continuous decline.
PIOMAS says something very different.(see below)
Reality is that current sea ice extent is a lot higher than most of the last 10,000 years and what we are looking at is actually a RECOVERY from an very high extent in 1979, not much lower than the extreme extent during the coldest period in 10,000 years, the LIA.
That LIA cold period drove basically all life out of the Arctic.
Species last in evidence in the late MWP is only just making a return.
Slight warming and a slight drop in Arctic sea ice extent is a massive PLUS for Artic sea life.
“PIOMAS says something very different.”
No it does not, the graph you show (of a shorter time period 2011-2024) shows the same features: Max of ~25 in 2015, min of ~5 in 2012 and 2024. A major factor has been the loss of the older, thicker ice:
Roflmao..
Thanks for the graph showing the RECOVERY from the 1979 extreme high…
… to the ZERO TREND since about 2011..
Well done..
And what makes you think those extreme levels of impenetrable thick sea ice was any way “good”.. It drove all the sea creatures out of the Arctic.
Very much the anomaly for the Holocene.. More like a Major Ice Age scenario.
And levels still haven’t dropped down anywhere near Holocene norms.
“what makes you think those extreme levels of impenetrable thick sea ice was any way “good”.. It drove all the sea creatures out of the Arctic.”
I’ve never made such a comment!
“And levels still haven’t dropped down anywhere near Holocene norms.”
The oldest, thickest ice has dropped to effectively zero, that would be the Holocene minimum!
Still far more sea ice up there than for nearly all the last 10,000 years.
Why do you hate Arctic sea life so much that you wish it to be frozen out of the Arctic by too much sea ice. ??
“Why do you hate Arctic sea life so much that you wish it to be frozen out of the Arctic by too much sea ice.”
Never said anything like that, you’re making up garbage as usual!
Funny you omit any data pre-1984. As bnice2000 say, the graph is deceptive as it fails to show ice extent returning to typical levels after the high in 1979.
To my eyes, the décline ceased in 2008. Is that what you wanted to show?
Why are you concerned by the age of the ice?
I didn’t “omit any data pre-1984″ that’s when NOAA started monitoring the sea ice age (EASE-Grid Sea Ice Age). Also the >4year old ice will have originated ~1979!
The decline of the old ice ceased around 2010 because there was virtually none left: “The September multiyear sea ice extent declined from 4.40 million km2 in 1985 to 1.29 million km2 in 2021 (Fig. 3). Over the same period, the oldest ice (>4 years old) declined from 2.36 million km2 to 0.14 million km2. In the 37 years since records began in 1985, the Arctic Ocean has changed from a domain dominated by multiyear ice to one where first-year ice prevails. A younger ice cover implies a thinner, less voluminous ice pack.”
“Why are you concerned by the age of the ice?”
Because “Age is a proxy for thickness as multiyear ice (ice that survives at least one summer melt season) grows thicker over successive winter periods.”
Must be cherry pickin’ time again.
I make a £100 bet every year that Arctic ice will bottom out at the autumnal equinox at more than 4Mkm2. Nobody takes it up? Why not? They would have won twice in the last 17 years! Btw ocean.dmi.dk is as usual since 1958 showing the Arctic (+80N) as THAWING about a degree C for about a month about now. Freezing all year otherwise. Every year. So is the Arctic ‘warming’. Doesn’t seem so.
Seems reasonable. Is sort-of tracking with 2024, which bottomed out at 4.13 Wadhams.
Time will tell…. and weather events.
What does it look like in the Eastern Arctic?
Finding a favourable statistic is easier, the bigger picture is usually more important.