The Science of Scapegoating: Nature’s Farcical Case for Climate Litigation

In the latest episode of Climate Courtroom Theater, Nature magazine has kindly served up a glowing piece of agitprop masquerading as science: “Carbon majors and the scientific case for climate liability.” A more fitting title might be “How to Blame Corporations for the Weather in Five Easy Steps.” With all the analytical rigor of a late-night infomercial and the objectivity of a Greenpeace fundraising letter, the paper seeks to transform centuries of scientific uncertainty into a lucrative legal weapon against energy producers.

Emissions linked to Chevron, the highest-emitting investor-owned company in our data, for example, very likely caused between US$791 billion and $3.6 trillion in heat-related losses over the period 1991–2020, disproportionately harming the tropical regions least culpable for warming. More broadly, we outline a transparent, reproducible and flexible framework that formalizes how end-to-end attribution could inform litigation by assessing whose emissions are responsible and for which harms. Drawing quantitative linkages between individual emitters and particularized harms is now feasible, making science no longer an obstacle to the justiciability of climate liability claims.

Let’s begin by unraveling the pseudo-scientific spaghetti they attempt to pass off as empirical analysis.

The central claim of this paper is as bold as it is bizarre: emissions from a handful of “carbon majors” can be directly linked to specific temperature and sea-level changes. How do they arrive at this? Through a series of models so layered in assumptions, estimates, and conjectures, they resemble an academic version of Inception.

From the paper:

“We find that emissions traced to 88 carbon majors contributed 0.50 ± 0.04 °C (50% ± 4%) of the rise in global mean surface temperature between 1851 and 2021.”

Translation: “We ran a model that assumes what we want it to prove, and—surprise!—it proves it.”

The authors use what they call an “emissions attribution approach,” which sounds fancy until you realize it’s essentially climate model Mad Libs. They start with historical emissions from companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron, toss them into a simplified climate model (MAGICC6, a delightful irony), and voilà—they claim these firms raised the global temperature by 0.50 °C and sea level by 9 cm. That’s 9 centimeters of litigation-ready accusation, extrapolated from a data set with more holes than a slice of Swiss cheese.

Garbage In, Liability Out

A key ingredient in this scientific stew is the Carbon Majors Database, a record of emissions tied to corporations since 1854. It’s unclear how the authors reconcile historical fossil fuel extraction with the vastly different combustion technologies, energy efficiencies, and population demands over 170 years. Spoiler alert: they don’t.

This database assigns blame for emissions as if industrial development was a solo act orchestrated by a few oil barons, rather than a global march driven by human demand, geopolitical necessity, and technological evolution. It’s a historical rewrite so absurd it could qualify as climate fan fiction.

From the paper:

“We argue that our analysis supports the scientific basis for climate change litigation and legal strategies to hold fossil fuel companies accountable for climate harms.”

This is the ideological Rosetta Stone. The research isn’t intended to explore the causes of climate variability. It’s designed to provide ammunition for lawsuits—plain and simple.

The paper’s activist streak isn’t buried—it’s front and center. The authors explicitly aim to support “liability and litigation efforts,” which they somehow claim does not compromise the neutrality of their work. This is akin to a plaintiff writing a judge’s ruling in advance, with the ink still wet on their lawsuit.

From the authors:

“Our results provide scientific evidence that can inform legal arguments about causation and corporate responsibility.”

And there you have it: the transformation of climate science into a courtroom consultant. The authors aren’t merely producing scientific knowledge—they’re drafting talking points for tort lawyers.

One might expect Nature to demand higher standards than turning scientific publishing into an amicus brief for Greenpeace. But alas, in today’s climate orthodoxy, publication standards appear to hinge more on ideological alignment than analytical robustness.

Assigning legal liability to energy producers for climate outcomes is akin to suing a baker for obesity or a lumberjack for deforestation—ignoring the role of demand, policy, and collective human action. It rewrites economics and responsibility with the logic of a show trial.

No mention is made of the role of consumer behavior, nor the benefits these energy sources provided over centuries. There’s also a disturbing absence of counterfactual analysis—what would the world have looked like without fossil fuels? The authors don’t ask because they already know the answer would obliterate their thesis.

The “net social benefit” of hydrocarbons, historically speaking, dwarfs the theoretical damages derived from speculative modeling. But that nuance has no place in a paper designed to weaponize science in service of litigation.

A Court Case in Search of a Crisis

This is not science—it’s a legal brief dressed up as climate modeling. It seeks to forge causality out of correlation, cherry-pick data to frame corporate villains, and provide activist lawyers with a glossy PDF of “evidence” that would fall apart under any serious cross-examination.

The true tragedy here isn’t the legal threats levied against corporations. It’s the degradation of scientific integrity, sacrificed on the altar of ideological fervor and political convenience. In the end, this paper says more about the biases of its authors than it does about the Earth’s climate.

And while the authors may hope their citations are someday read aloud in court, they may want to prepare for another reality: being footnoted in future textbooks as a cautionary tale of how not to do science.