A recent article posted by The Guardian discusses funding given to UK research groups in an effort to track potential “climate tipping points” so forecasts can be made to warn about upcoming catastrophes. The premise that we are approaching dangerous and unprecedented climate tipping points is unsupported by history or present data. The planet has been through periods of massive change many times in the past. There is no evidence that there is a magic temperature at which positive feedbacks will spiral out of control, and none of the myriad conditions some researchers have pointed to as dangerous indicate a threat of ”tipping” over some imagined edge.
The article, “Early warning system for climate tipping points given £81m kickstart,” describes funding given to 27 teams of researchers by the U.K.’s Advanced Research and Invention Agency (Aria). According to The Guardian, this is an “attempt to develop an early warning system for climate tipping points will combine fleets of drones, cosmic ray detection and the patterns of plankton blooms with artificial intelligence and the most detailed computer models to date.”
The goal is to detect signals “that forewarn of the greatest climate catastrophes the climate crisis could trigger,” describing these conditions as climate tipping points which “occur when global temperature is pushed beyond a threshold, leading to unstoppable changes in the climate system.”
The two main tipping points that the program will focus on are the alleged approaching collapse of both the Greenland ice sheet and critical ocean currents in the North Atlantic.
Trends on both of these supposed harbingers of climate change have been regularly misdescribed or exaggerated by the media in recent decades.
To begin with, the so-called climate threshold is an arbitrary value in the first place. The most common threshold value for global average temperature is 1.5°C above pre-industrial temperatures, but this is not a scientifically derived value, despite being cited frequently by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It was selected for political purposes by a political panel. Europe has long surpassed that value, with a temperature record going back to the 1700s showing warming of over 2.0°C since then, with no catastrophic results.
This being said, warming has occurred, and as a result of that of the Greenland ice sheet has experienced some melting, which should be expected as the planet transitions out of an ice age. Climate Realism has covered Greenland’s ice trends more than a dozen times, and the fact is that the ice mass loss is tiny compared to the full ice mass of Greenland, and what melts in the summer months refreezes over winter, amounting to a very low net ice loss over time. This is no sign or indication of a looming collapse, and neither physics nor research into ice dynamics indicate that there should be.
The collapse of the North Atlantic Ocean current is again another tipping point that is often hyped in the media while the full context is conveniently left out of the discussion. Indeed, researchers can’t even agree on what, if any, types of changes in the North Atlantic current are occurring. Some research suggests the current has slowed, other research that it has speeded up, and still other research suggests that there hasn’t been any significant change at all.
Last year around this same time, scientists and the media joined forces to warn readers that the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) was nearing collapse. This alarming warning was based on a computer model output that suggested the AMOC may collapse 1,758 years from now.
As meteorologist Anthony Watts points out in “No, CNN and Other Media Outlets, Climate Change Is Not Causing the Ocean Circulation to Collapse,” this type of slowdown of AMOC is not unprecedented, and in fact it resulted in better conditions for humanity:
The Younger Dryas Climate Event occurred about 12,900 to 11,700 years ago. Many of the climate changes related to that event were likely a response to increased freshwater discharge to the North Atlantic and the reduction in AMOC strength. That basically signaled the end of the most recent ice age, beginning the time when Earth became more habitable for humans, and sedentary agriculture began. Shortly after that, in geologic time the blinking of an eye, the first nascent, large-scale civilizations began developing.
The Earth’s multiple climate systems are complex and connected by many mechanisms which are only poorly understood. Proof of this fact is made quite clear by the contradictory studies that seem to whiplash between predicting a slowing or speeding up AMOC, depending on what data is used and what assumptions are built into the modelling.
The main theme for all of Earth’s history has been change, continuously. Some of those changes, like transitions into ice ages, are large scale and harmful to life. The modest warming of the past century-plus is not in that category. Sadly, it is pretty unlikely that funding for climate alarm studies will result in anything other than more alarmist projections spun out of flawed computer models. However, if we are very lucky, data collected over the next decades will help to assuage the fears of researchers and The Guardian’s reporters, as it becomes clearer that climate change poses no existential threat to life or human civilization.
How does the “Guard” survive? Who is the worst in the npn communist world? Gotta be the Guard? Gubment subsidy?
The lies flow trippingly from their tongues
The Guardian has a begging bowl on every page plus:
Reader contributions:
Over 1 million recurring digital supporters (AKA idiots) from more than 180 countries worldwide contribute to the Guardian’s funding.
The Scott Trust Limited directors:
“Philanthropists” who donate to the Guardian:
The Guardian has also received donations from various foundations, including:
(Sometimes AI can be useful)
The Gates Foundation gave $12.9m
so forecasts can be made to warn about upcoming catastrophes
That’s weather, not climate.
I think “tipping points” were so people like James Hansen could claim imminent doom out of slight warming. “Sure, nothing has happened yet, but if my scenario is right, we all gonna die right soon now”.
Often hypothetical, tipping points are one of many current fads common in biological journals. Closest event with that magnitude is a severe freeze which slows down repopulation, but they become non-tipped. Example of opposite is “robust.”
Sort of like the Rapture, or Hale-Bopp. Something is coming! Send money, and enjoy the refreshments. In this case, it is dressed up all sciency-like and on a larger political scale, but the target audience is the same.
Very nice Linnea.
Very Emily Latella
A novices misunderstanding of how ice is formed on land. Ice is compacted snow. Snow starts its life in the ocean. It takes a huge amount of ocean heat input to liberate water from the surface into the atmosphere. Ice accumulation occurs when the snowfall overtakes snow melt. Ice exists in the tropics above 6000m despite the intensity of the sun. The ice with fresh snow is highly reflective.
An inconvenient reality for Greenland is that the ELEVATION of the summit is increasing at 17mm/yr. 10 times faster than see level is falling.
From NASA:
https://earth.gsfc.nasa.gov/cryo/data/greenland-ice-sheet-summit-elevation-change
Note they use 0.017m/a here but sea level rise is 1.7mm/a.
And then the inconvenient fact that the Jakobshaven glacier is advancing and thickening.
The ocean waters are not cooler – they are continuing to warm. There are numerous new snowfall records every year in the northern hemisphere. Japan set new daily records last week. Gaylord in Michigan is set for a new accumulation record:
https://99wfmk.com/gaylord-snowfall-record/
Warm oceans produce more atmospheric water that produces more snow when the land north of 40N inevitably falls below 0C in winter.
NH interglacials inevitably end when the boreal summer peak solar intensity is increasing. Of course that means the winter solar intensity is declining but you cannot get less than zero sunlight, which is the case north of 67N.
£81million! The trough that keeps on giving.
It’s a good rort they have going. Sounds like they are going to paid to play computer games for a couple of years while pretending to look at the legendary non existent problem.
This is what Donald Trump is saving the USA from. Bogus research to provide well-paid employment.
This is the same way the IPCC was formed ….. here’s a bunch of money, now find reasons for people to believe us. But this time they’ve learned to put the proof of their findings far enough in the future that the proof will never be realized.
Yup. After 4 decades of scaring with ‘imminent doom’ that didn’t happen, they now have future doom somewhen—but that is not nearly as scary.
More than 4 decades, unless it is just the IPCC.
Article tip – The injected CO2 that went missing – GeoExpro
A CCS demonstration project in Japan injected a small amount of CO2 in a volcanic reservoir, but the plume could not be monitored using 3D seismic data
A bigger tip was presidents Trump presidential order from Friday
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/defending-american-companies-and-innovators-from-overseas-extortion-and-unfair-fines-and-penalties/
The main aim of that order is clearly if Countries try to target USA based on not being in the Paris Agreement or imposing Carbon taxes etc they face consequences.
’Sudden climate tipping points’ have been an alarmist staple for decades now. They have three BIG problems:
Day after Tomorrow was a disaster genre AMOC themed movie, about as realistic as Independence Day (alien invasion). Both good fun fantasy movies. Except the climate change alarm isn’t fun, and its results are actually disastrous.
Thought would add a simplified AMOC addendum explanation for those that haven’t read the underlying physics papers and might not understand my super simplified point 3(b).
To a first order simplification, the Atlantic is widest near the equator, and narrows substantially toward both poles, especially to the north. That means water near the equator must be ‘spinning’ faster in meters/second than near the poles. Simple math/geometry. That necessarily higher inertia means water wants to ‘squeeze’ toward the lower inertia poles, a simple consequence of velocity gradients.
Around Antarctica, this results in the circumpolar current.
In the North Atlantic, because of the North Africa western bulge above the equator, it results in the AMOC starting on the US side (actually, in the Gulf of America) and ending on the European side north of the UK given the ocean shape.
A good example is a dance line. The person at the center of the circle barely moves but the person at the end has to run.
If you every get a chance read Maury’s The Physical Geography of the Sea and It’s Meteorology (1855, reprinted 1963). He was in the US Navy at sea between 1825-1834 but after an accident couldn’t go to sea so he was put in the Hydrographic Office where he collected incredibly numerous ship logs. In the Chapter on the Easting of the Trade-Winds he concluded that the average velocity of the SE Atlantic trade winds was higher than the NE. He discussed a lot about the Gulf Stream including from the Mexican Gulf.
Due to the delicate balance of salinity. Ok. Warm salty water versus cooler fresh water. Cooler water sinks. Salty water sinks. Seems a lack of physical measurements results in speculation.
Looking at the currents, there is a cold water north to south flow on the coast of Greenland. Seems like the freshwater would more push the salt water further from the coast than mix with it especially given the flows are in opposite directions.
Jury is still out.
The Day After Tomorrow, released in 2004, was based on a scifi novel, The Coming Global Superstorm, published in 1999.
I read the book. I saw the movie. I enjoyed both. However, getting -135F temps from the upper troposphere to the surface ins mere seconds is physically impossible. The air density between the two altitudes makes it impossible. The air density at higher altitudes is due, in part to low air density.
Temperature, after all, is the average kinetic energy impact exchange of molecules on the thermometer. Fewer molecules, fewer impacts on the thermometer, lower temperature.
Now now, you don’t know that. Maybe in an alternate reality, where the laws of physics don’t apply, there could be climate tipping points.Have some faith, man.
…The future’s uncertain and the end is always near….
That’s why…
I woke up this morning and got myself a beer!
With apologies to the memory of the late Richard Feynman, “…if it agrees with the Guardian, it’s wrong”.
Yep. I remember the Guardian telling its readers in the 1970s that the Viet Cong weren’t communists. How did that assurance work out?
£81million
That would buy a lot of Vitamin A for malnourished kids about to reach the tipping point of going permanently blind.
Dumba**es.
Thermal radiance equation includes Temperature to the FOURTH power (T^4).
Dumba**es.
Well there’s a Trump tipping point that’s injected a degree of urgency-
UN warns that ‘time is not on our side’ as key climate science meeting begins
“We owe it to everyone suffering the impacts of the climate crisis now, and to future generations, to make decisions about our planet’s future on the basis of the best evidence and knowledge available to us,” they said in a joint statement.
…although apparently the urgency is all somewhat racist as usual-
A group of countries made up of Russia, Saudi Arabia, China, South Africa and India – backed by Kenya – has pushed back on an accelerated timeline, arguing that it would be too rushed. They have also said it could put the report’s inclusivity at risk, making it harder to include scientists from the Global South.
I know many non-racists here would be relaxed and comfortable with identifying and not rushing the systemic racism being touted by the usual suspects here.
I would like a list of all those suffering the impacts of the climate crisis plus a concise definition of this climate crisis.
The crisis definition would include parameters that can be measured and/or tested, not some handwaving exercise that “scientists say….”
I, for one, welcome our new artificially intelligent plankton overlords.
We can always depend on the Guardian, the BBC and maybe the CBC to reactivate one climate catastrophe prediction or another. That’s the reason they’re consistently ignored on the issue, people go on with their lives as usual.
“U.K.’s Advanced Research and Invention Agency (Aria).” Well it says it right there, If the Research don’t find it… Invention will. 😉
The guardian is nothing more than a propaganda rag. It is run by very cynical people, employing useful idiots whose mental development was arrested at age 16.
Running alongside warnings of impending climate armageddon are stories like
‘scientists’ have proven that depression is linked to low mood,
‘my husband wants a threesome with my best friend, why do I feel so jealous?’.
‘Good vibrations: the 10 best dildo deals on Amazon’
‘how to pack your suitcase for a long weekend (paid content)’
and finally ‘we have a small favour to ask. At a time when Trump has decided to deport all persons with a Hispanic name to tierra del Fuego, please support us with a small contribution so that we can fight against fake news on your behalf, on behalf of all humanity and in honor of George Monbiot, who last week reached Nirvana and vanished into the ether. “
The UK is funding data gathering.
And that is mocked here?
This used to be a science website.
When historians look back on how China replaced the USA, the collapse of evidence based discussions in forums like WUWT will have a chapter on its own.
Monitoring climate ‘tipping points’ via proxy signals is about as scientific as hunting for leprechauns in the New Forest
You can post your indignation on ‘Comment is [far from] free’ on the G’s website, the kids will be happy to indulge, I think it’s half term
Not funding data gathering. Funding toys and computer models.
These tipping points are basically the “butterfly effect” and they are now being combined into a domino effect.
I fear the people zealously looking for (so called) tipping points actually desire them to happen now just to prove to everybody else how clever they have been. Nature meanwhile continues rubbing her head at such gross naivety.
The Guardian is tipping into bankruptcy, I wonder why?
It’s just a job creation scheme for otherwise unemployable climate studies and political science graduates . In the real world they would struggle in many jobs and this gives the money and a cushy lifestyle with no responsibility as predictions are always maybe and in the future.
It would seem BP crossed a tipping point.
“Early warning system for climate tipping points given £81m kickstart,” describes funding given to 27 teams of researchers by the U.K.’s Advanced Research and Invention Agency (Aria). Artificial intelligence and the most detailed computer models to date.”
This sounds like a storyline from Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy where after a very long data analysis and an even bigger and better (therefore more expensive) computer model is required, probably nicknamed Deep Thought.
42.
Then they needed a bigger computer to calculate the ultimate question of life the universe and everything. The answer alone was insufficient.
And ironically, the answer they got was wrong. lol