From the Cliff Mass Weather Blog
Cliff Mass
The weather forecasts for the Los Angeles area were nearly perfect for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Very strong winds and low relative humidity were predicted by the high-resolution models (such as the NWS HRRR model), with forecast winds greater than 60 mph. The region was bone-dry with little rain during the past months.
The NOAA’s HRRR model prediction of wildfire potential on Monday indicated very high values in the Pacific Palisades region (see below). It is hard to imagine doing better.
The National Weather Service put out an ominous forecast for the danger of wildfire. I blogged about it on Monday because I was quite concerned.
Yet with all this warning, a huge fire (actually three major fires) occurred with at least 5 deaths. Over a thousand homes were destroyed. The damage will easily be in the billions of dollars. And the story is not over yet.
Did local governments take sufficient steps to stop this well-predicted disaster? Should Southern California Edison have been more aggressive in turning off power?
Update
The area of the Palisade fire this afternoon is shown below, with a current size of about 16,000 acres.
There are two other large fires, the Easton and Hurst fires.
The strong winds predicted on Monday were verified..
Below are the maximum wind gusts yesterday and today. Up to 98 mph in the hills northeast of Malibu yesterday and 89 mph today.
Also very low relative humidity.
Wednesday Max Wind Through Noon
We know the fire started around 10:30 AM yesterday (Tuesday) not far from the Summit community (see map)
The big question is ignition. What started the fire?
Considering the history of such fires, the most probable origin is a sparking electrical line and the second is arson. Eventually, we will know.
If a sparking electrical line was the cause, then Southern California Edison needs to explain why the power was not shut down to the entire threatened area. As shown below, pictures from aircraft landing last night revealed that neighborhoods near the fires were still energized.
Even Edison’s own maps this AM showed that large areas near the fires (and strong winds) were still energized.
Just frustrating….. such good weather predictions and still such unfortunate outcomes. We need to do better.
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https://x.com/EricAbbenante/status/1877207054105886836
I’ve lived in upstate New York and in Florida near Eglin AFB. Both have scrub pine wilderness areas that have used controlled burns for years to manage underbrush and deadfall. Managing wildfire risk is not difficult.
What happened to the money voted on by the people to build several reservoirs? I understand it was voted on over a decade ago and billions were approve but none have been completed.
Bring back asbestos i say. Only white obv, none of that amphibole nonsense.
The real issue, for anyone who has been in these areas, is fuel. This year has seen quite a lot of rainfall – plants grow after the rainfall. Once the normal weather resumes – these plants die and leave a massive biomass fuel source.
Sure, blackouts can reduce the possible causes of fires, but they will not actually change the eventual outcome since the fuel will only keep accumulating.
Cliff Mass lays blame for the start of Palisades Fire on sparking powerlines located just northeast of The Summit ridgetop housing development.
Where and how did the Palisades Fire start?
To give Cliff credit, he states that sparking powerlines are the most likely ignition source. One of the people commenting on the blog mentioned that the lines in question were on the LADWP map, which implies it would be LADWP and not SCE owning and controlling the power lines in question. If that is the case and also if the arcing lines was the source of ignition, then I would not want to be anyone in LADWP’s management. The only good news for them is that the loss of life is nowhere near what happened with the St Francis dam in 1928.
The weather conditions were normal. When the storms pass us by, Santa Ana winds are the norm.Fires like this happen all of the time. Most houses here are built promary of wood and under compustable materials. Adequate precautions to keep the wooden buildings from catching fire have not been taken. Fires like this happen over and over again yet adequate precautions are not taken. I always remember when there were fire breaks all over the place to limit the extent of such fires but the powers that be no longer take those precautions. They need to determing how eack home caught on fire. These fires happen all of the time here in Southern California. Adequate precautions need ato be taken so that homes do not catch fire during these circimstances.
What you mean we, Whiteman? [Old Lone Ranger/Tonto joke.]
I escaped California over 40 years ago in face of the ongoing Leftist/Marxist takeover of all of the local and statewide institutions. Its only gotten worse in the intervening time. Its the inevitable result of the low-information and gullible sheep voting themselves “free stuff” and supporting all the feel-good, unworkable Leftist social and environmental schemes.
Didn’t the Biden Administration say that the Federal government would reimburse all State and local government costs related to the fires? Not much of an incentive to avoid future expensive disasters.