By Vijay Jayaraj
As the global energy landscape pivots in the shadow of November 2024’s seismic political developments, the world finds itself navigating a complex web of geopolitics, market maneuvers and environmental debates.
In recent weeks, we have seen the return to world leadership chief climate skeptic Donald Trump and the conspicuous absences of key leaders at “green” energy’s COP29 annual summit. These punctuate emerging narratives from Africa, Asia and Latin America that signal an unmistakable ascendance of energy security and national sovereignty as priorities not to be denied.
The supposed unified, Western-led march toward decarbonization has given way to a more complex reality of increasing fossil fuel consumption driven by economic and societal pressures for wealth creation in developing countries.
The Future of World’s Largest Oil Producer
Donald Trump’s election victory has once again emboldened many countries to reassess their current climate policies. His plans include expanding offshore drilling, reviving coal mining and dismantling unnecessary and expensive federal support for intermittent energy sources.
His appointment of Chris Wright to lead the Department of Energy (DOE) underscores his administration’s pivot to hydrocarbons as central to U.S. energy security. In fact, this is the first time a person from the energy sector has been appointed as DOE head, which makes even more obvious the direction of U.S. policy beginning in January.
COP29: A Gathering in Isolation
Hosted in Baku, Azerbaijan, the United Nation’s annual climate circus COP29 became virally popular for who was missing or leaving early. Leaders from China, India, and Russia – some of the world’s largest energy consumers – opted to prioritize other platforms, such as the BRICS-led Kazan Declaration that emphasized energy security over reductions in fossil fuel use.
While some Western nations continue to cling religiously to a hydrocarbon hostility based on pseudoscience, the developing world’s climate apostasy has grown louder. Countries like India lambast the hypocrisy of wealthier nations that demand “decarbonization” without offering viable alternatives to coal, oil and natural gas.
Notably, Azerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliyev, declared fossil fuels “a gift from God” even as he hosted in his capital COP29, where solar and wind energy are to be revered. This declaration, coupled with Azerbaijan’s plans to expand natural gas production, highlighted the irony of a petrostate hosting a climate summit aimed at phasing out fossil fuels.
Argentinian President Javier Milei withdrew his 80-person delegation from COP29 less than a third of the way into the 11-day extravaganza.
In all, the event appeared headed to dismal failure, leaving one to wonder whether the final nail in in the climate industrial coffin would be duly fixed at this year’s event. On the flip side, a dozen energy-guzzling countries at the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, agreed on ensuring the reliable supply of fossil fuels.
Fossil Fuels in Asia, Africa and South America
Yes, China and India are devouring coal and not stopping anytime soon. Yet, the quantity of fossil fuels being produced and consumed in other developing countries is seldom noticed by the media.
Japan for example has gone all out in ensuring new markets for natural gas imports and boasts the world’s largest storage facilities for incoming gas. Indonesia, too, is planning to increase coal uptake and production.
Ongoing explorations in Suriname and Guyana are now joined by more oil and gas discoveries in Ecuador. Proclaiming an unstoppable momentum for South America’s oil and gas sector are the shale boom in Argentina’s Río Negro province, the abundant oil production in Colombia’s Llanos basin and Petrobras’ expected third-quarter net profit of more than $5 billion in Brazil.
Africa is emerging as a focal point for new oil and gas development. The frank admission by South Africa’s energy minister at the African Energy Week about the necessity of fossil fuels for energy security reflects a broader African narrative. New oil and gas fields across the continent – from the Orange Basin in Namibia to the Tilenga and Kingfisher fields in Uganda – suggest a prioritization of economic development over climate concerns.
While European countries double down on climate targets, much of the developing world is prioritizing economic growth through fossil fuels. These shifts reveal a fracturing of what has always been a shaky global alignment on climate action and highlight the enduring role of hydrocarbons in powering the world.
As the dust settles, the contours of a new energy order are beginning to emerge – one defined by pragmatism, regional alliances and a blunt acknowledgment of the doomsday cult’s decrepit state.
This commentary was first published at Town Hall on November 30, 2024.
Vijay Jayaraj is a Science and Research Associate at the CO2 Coalition, Arlington, Virginia. He holds an M.S. in environmental sciences from the University of East Anglia and a postgraduate degree in energy management from Robert Gordon University, both in the U.K., and a bachelor’s in engineering from Anna University, India.
Another example of the pragmatism cited above can be find in Quebec where Lion Electric a former leading manufacturer of electric school buses has recently laid off 400 workers after 520 earlier. It has also halted production at it its Joliet, Il plant and essentially for the same reason. These vehicles aren’t going far enough to de-carbonize the atmosphere, are excessively expensive, too costly from the outset and apparently not dependable enough. All of this sounds like the reasons that there has been such a big decline in EV sales in general. It also is another example of the do-good environmental posturing by many governments among which Quebec is one of the worst with its EV sales/production mandates for I believe 2030 or earlier The reality is that there was never a need for a switch to electric buses just as there is no need to de-carbonize in general when nothing exists to supplant fossil fuels on a large-scale basis.
Happily, some young school children, especially disabled ones, are less likely to be incinerated by this madness.
Mass movements can burn out. Net Zero and the Green New Deal proved to be losers in US politics, just barely. The UK Labour party seems to be doubling down on Net Zero, but seems to be faltering. Germany has issues holding a minority government together, at least partly over the Energiewende.
One of the few advantages of being fairly old is having watched various Noble Causes collapse to the point where very few people admit they were ever backers, like The Satanic Panic/Recovered Memory affair.
Ironically, EV fires are generally quite robust.
Net Zero is still strong in Wokeachusetts. Reading the local papers you’d never guess that Trump won the election and that he wants to crush renewable energy. Since most renewable energy for this state will have to be at sea- since now, nobody wants it on land- it should be easy to eradicate- since wind at sea needs a lot of federal permits??
I think Trump has already expressed sympathy for the fishermen who are protesting building windmills in their area.
Trump said he would make a good whale psychologist.
So I think off-shore windmills are going to have some tough sledding in the Trump administration.
Trump who?
Add France to the list.
Just as it should be. Prioritizing the health and prosperity of human society and real rather than imaginary environmental stewardship over the pseudo-religious fixation on CO2 as a climate bogeyman in absence of any objective proof. This is the direction of common sense and sanity.
No sanity here …..
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/12/epa-advisor-caught-undercover-admitting-insurance-policy-against/
flood the money out ….
Very nice Vijay.
COP 29 didn’t herald the end of the wind and solar era, it confirmed it.
In India, for example, approximately 15,033 MW of solar capacity and 3,253 MW of wind capacity were added in the financial year 2024, marking an increase of 17.6% for solar and 42.9% for wind installations compared to the same period the previous year3.
In the fiscal year 2024, India added new coal-fired power plants with a combined capacity of 13.9 gigawatts (GW)1.
The new coal-fired generation added in India in fiscal year 2024:13.9 GW×1000=13,900 MW (11,800 net at 85% CF).
This capacity addition is the highest annual increase in at least six years2. It’s part of India’s plan to meet its surging power demand while addressing energy security concerns2
Note: 16000 MW of solar at 25% capacity factor = <4,000 MW net, 3,300 MW of wind at 40% CF = <1,400 MW net. W&S combined = <5,400 MW net. India installed twice as much coal generation net capacity vs wind and solar combined.
.
Here’s where India is really at using from reasonable capacity factors/utilization rates: 4x more energy consumption from non-wind/solar sources
Actual Energy Generation Estimates:
Current (FY 2024):
Sanberg,
A couple of points, those capacity factors for solar and wind seem high, wind in particular. also this falls as the plants age.
Capacity factor for coal depends on the amount of load and supply balancing it has to do. If wind and solar is strong at a particular moment coal will have to reduce output to keep the balance. However coal is able to ramp up as and when required, wind and solar cannot.
Nuclear is normaly run at maximum available output, hence the high capacity factor.
The point being coal is dominant.
The UN has confessed a key goal of the climate crisis movement was the redistribution of wealth when developed nations compensated developing nations to pay for their green energy development.
Instead, as developed countries suppress the use of fossil fuels usage and drag their feet on sending money, developing countries are cashing in on cheaper fossil fuels to develop their economies and take advantage of our self destructive net zero policies.
I just hope “Big Wind and Solar” have not grown powerful enough to effectively resist the Trump administration through help from Republican’s who want to keep the jobs and money flow to their states.
“I just hope “Big Wind and Solar” have not grown powerful enough to effectively resist the Trump administration through help from Republican’s who want to keep the jobs and money flow to their states.”
That is something we will need to keep our eyes on.
I think if Trump wants something bad enough, he can overcome some local Republican resistance. I wouldn’t want Trump coming after me! 🙂
With each passing year, I see more and more evidence that this climate change mass movement is driven by advertising or at least heavily dependent on advertising. Yet, there is little opposition to advertising coming from the large block of people worried about the damage caused by policies like net zero.
The advertising industry has sophisticated research to help it. People like me who have not studied advertising can have the wool pulled over their eyes, without knowing it. The industry is quiet about self-publicity, so it is hard to find a target if you wish to protest about advertising. It is hard to find how many dollars are spent on climate change commercials in a chosen country. The industry is like lawyers, taking money from clients with little regard to the veracity of honesty or benefits to society of their climate project. Innocent or guilty, here is my fee.
There is obvious advertising, telling us over and over that the world is in a climate crisis (but when did you see an ad saying it is not?). That the science is settled. There is also insidious, hidden advertising that pushes messages almost unseen, like images of landscapes for some reason or another, now showing big windmills turning. We see this style in general Australian advertising, when couples on the screen are less often typical Aussies but more often an Aussie male with an Asian partner (but rarely the other way) and US black males starring in advertising on subjects related to women and sex. Insidious.
My suggestion here is for readers everywhere to tell me where I am wrong; if, OTOH, you agree with me, maybe it is time to get stuck into them. They are playing a part in the recent decay of my once beautiful country. Stop them. Geoff S
The general trend in TV ads tends to be, “Men a stupid, and women are ever so smart.”
Geoff,
Don’t call it ‘advertising’. It is propaganda.
Exactly.
We see that “insidious” advertising here in the US and it’s laughable. It’s often the source of good jokes. We have wondered when the virtue signaling will wear thin, and I think our recent landslide election victory was the answer….seeing all kinds of subtle pulling back from the brink of the extremist views forced upon us for nearly 4 years. The CC narrative, like a rudderless boat, is sill caught in the current but seems to be slowing, so we in the US are actually hopeful.
Waiting for that boat to capsize.
The denouement of wind and solar as primary energy providers is finally here. Coincidentally, or possibly due to, the fall of MSM as the provider of believable news as the internet fills that space and hasn’t been bought (yet) by the Globalist cabal although they are trying to silence it. Propaganda is useless if no one believes or is even listening.
Well put, and in the US my impression is that increasing numbers of people are now going further than just not listening – we are speaking out against green insanity/propaganda.
“Propaganda is useless if no one believes or is even listening.”
Unfortunately, a lot of people in the U.S. are still being directed by propaganda. Over 72 million people voted for Kamala Harris and the radical Democrat agenda.
If these 72 million people knew the truth, they wouldn’t vote for Democrats. But, obviously, they have been given a false picture of what radical Democrats really are, and think it is a good idea to vote for them.
If the Democrats hadn’t gone overboard with their inflationary spending and flooding the United States with illegal immigrants, they might still be running things.
So we are out of the socialist fire for four more years but we need to start thinking beyond that. Trump has shown us the way, now we need strong leaders to take up that baton and run with it, and allow the United States to keep on winning.
What proportion of those 72 millions voted because their vote was “bought” via student loan forgiveness, free medical procedures and medicines, free this, free that, all paid for by US tax payer dollars and a whole s-load of debt?
Who would vote against a person offering cash for a vote if the offering was grand enough?
What about Venezuela? Is Nicolás Maduro still trying to claim part of Guyana’s oil lands? Will Venezuela ever return to competency?
Not as long as the Marxists control it.
Trumpian economics trumps wokeness.
Wokeness will die slowly in Wokeachusetts. Here, it’s an extreme cult!
Maybe faster than you think. Biden won MA by 34%. Harris won the vote by 25%.
MA could very well vote for Vance’s second term.
The contrast between Trumpian economics and wokeness will be increasingly stark.
Yes, Trump and Republicans made inroads into many Blue (Democrat) areas around the United States. A lot of Blue counties turned Red (Republican), November 5, 2024.
Joseph, you know your homestate better than I will. I suspect however that over time Wokeachusetts will slowly bleed out both people and jobs the same way that California has been doing for decades. Texas, Florida and a host of southern States have been benefiting by heavy net out-migration from California, New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Illinois. And this has been going on for about 30 years.
And as the migration goes on and accelerates, these states will slowly become less relevant and powerful within the Union.
Except that the folks leaving the very blue states get to Texas and Florida and immediately set about trying to fix them, so they would be just like California, Oregon, Washington, etc. They have never done a causal analysis on why they had to leave their worker’s paradises to move to Texas or Florida. There is no cure for stupid.
Not as universally as your post infers. Key word: universally.
I just learned today that here in Wokeachusetts, there is a law on the books that says all town and cities, as of January 1, 2025- may no longer purchase any diesel burning trucks. All must be electric. Even snow plows! Does any company even make an all electric snowplow?
NYC went down that path a few years ago, they use their garbage trucks to plow snow with.
https://www.autoevolution.com/news/new-york-city-s-new-all-electric-garbage-trucks-can-t-handle-the-heavy-snow-207305.html
https://www.ccjdigital.com/alternative-power/battery-electric/article/15305218/nyc-electric-truck-scores-big-on-trash-collection
What about renting them? Can they do that?
LOL
This is crazy! Does this include garbage trucks and the trucks used by the street maintenance department and by the fire and rescue department?
Not sure- but the guy who told me said no more trucks with diesel engines. Not sure if it means the state government too or just cities and towns. I’ll have to dig deeper on this.
No. Electric plows exist only as home appliances for your driveway. Nothing exists as machines capable of plowing thousands of tonnes of snow off highways.
Oh how those batteries perform in the cold and how well they charge when they freeze.
JZ does that also apply to Fire Depts?
Good question- I’ll have to find out. Probably not as I doubt there are any electric fire trucks. I gotta find the exact law or regulation.
Actually, there ARE electric fire trucks. Los Angeles, Charolotte, and I think Denver have some. Personally, I think they’re a horrible idea.
Possible loophole would be for each electric snowplow and other trucks would tow a diesel generator hooked up to the the batteries or the the electric motors of the trucks!
From the article: “Argentinian President Javier Milei withdrew his 80-person delegation from COP29 less than a third of the way into the 11-day extravaganza.”
I like this guy, Milei!
I would love to know the story about this withdrawal. Did Milei let his delegation go to COP29 in anticipation of having them walk out in the middle of the confeence, as a way of making a bold statement, or did something happen at the meeting to cause his delegation to leave?
When it became clear that $billions were not forthcoming, they decided it was a waste of time.
From the article: “Yes, China and India are devouring coal and not stopping anytime soon. Yet, the quantity of fossil fuels being produced and consumed in other developing countries is seldom noticed by the media.”
The Western Media censors anything that doesn’t follow the Climate Change narrative. In this case, it is self-censorship by omission. They just don’t report things that call Net Zero into question.
A few Western nations are destroying their economies trying to reduce CO2. Meanwhile, the rest of the world is moving on to bigger and better things through oil, natural gas, coal and nuclear.
Western Net Zero policy is a failure. It is obvious that if the effort continues, the Western nations most involved will be the ones most damaged by this delusion.
The bad news is Net Zero has a good chance of ruining some of the most advanced nations in the world (Germany and UK).
The good news is there is no evidence that CO2 needs to be reduced. The Western Net Zero fanatics are spinning their wheels trying to reduce CO2, and driving their nations into bankruptcy if they continue down this ruinous road.
Trump could show them how to do it right, but Climate Change fanatics won’t listen. They will have to crash and burn before they wake up, which is unfortunate for the people they govern.
The whole of this Climate Syndicate was not the environment, but the redistribution of wealth, achieving the Soviet Union’s goal of One World Order, and the downfall of western nations as well as a massive depopulation of the plant as outlined in The Population Bomb..