Time magazine recently posted an article, titled “Is Climate Change Causing the Deadly Floods in Europe?” that, while providing some balance, still asserts that the recent flooding in Poland and other parts of Europe reflects a broader worsening pattern caused by climate change. This is false. There is no indication in the data showing a “pattern” of increasing flood severity or incidence.
Time admits that it’s “difficult to draw a conclusive link between this event and climate change,” but then says “experts say the most severe floods to hit the region in at least two decades fit into a broader pattern of extreme weather events.”
Later, Time quotes a professor from the University of Bristol who recommends attribution studies to determine whether or not the flooding is caused by climate change:
“It’s really difficult to relate a single event to climate change impact,” says Paul Bates, a professor of hydrology at the University of Bristol who specializes in the science of flooding. Bates says that in order to definitively prove whether or not climate change contributed to the flooding in Europe, researchers will need to conduct an attribution study, which takes at least several weeks. “Every time we do an attribution study, we tend to find that the events we see have been exacerbated by climate change, and I’m pretty sure that will be the case here, but we don’t yet conclusively know,” says Bates.
Several weeks for a peer reviewed study, that would be amazingly rapid.
As Climate Realism has pointed out before many times, attribution studies are over-trusted by the media and scientists, and are often used more like propaganda than science. Attribution studies compare unverified, counterfactual models of the Earth’s climate and emissions, assuming ahead of time that any difference between the models is due to human-caused carbon dioxide emissions. Neither model represents the world as it really is, and the modelers assume the conclusion before it is reached, using the models only to confirm their preexisting belief. As a result, the models never discover anything other than a human influence on weather events, and almost invariably suggest that human activities likely contributed to each event studied.
While it is true that warmer air holds more water, that does not translate directly to an increase in intense rainfall. Also, warming does not occur consistently even within a nation’s own borders, with some places (like cities) seeing more warming than the countryside, which in some places can even see cooling trends. Global average warming does not cause regional storms.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 6th Assessment Report indicates that there is no sign yet of any increase in heavy precipitation and pluvial (flash or rain-caused) flooding. And only under the most extreme, unrealistic scenario does the IPCC speculate with medium confidence that climate change might impact flooding after 2050. (See figure below)
Figure 1 – Table 12.12 | on Page 90 – Chapter 12 of the UN IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. Emergence of Climate Impact Drivers (CIDs)
The European flood discussed in the article was not unprecedented. The Danube River, which carried much of the flooding in Europe this year, had an even worse flood in 1997. Similar floods devastated Budapest in 1838, Vienna has always fought with the Danube, and there are many other longstanding historical records of major floods throughout history in the region.
Cities that invested in flood management fared better in the recent event than those that didn’t –this would be the case whether or not climate change was a factor in flooding trends. Overall, Time’s post isn’t that terrible, it is careful to not make any statements that are too certain when it comes to the climate connection. However, it is a mistake to suggest that there is an existing pattern of worsening severe weather like flooding caused by climate change when available data shows no changing trends.
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Just throw a few more virgins in the volcano? Oh, a shortage of virgins? Raise a regressive tax, instead! We must appease Gaia!!
Virgins don’t really do anything.
It’s the impervious area that causes all the problems. If we could just reduce the impervious area to what there was back in the 1500’s then the flooding would … nevermind.
We have Austerity 2.0. which in true Orwellian terms is called… tough choices.
“…..but then says “experts say the most severe floods to hit the region in at least two decades fit into a broader pattern of extreme weather events.”
********
Isn’t it amazing how often the mass media outlets quote “experts” who make statements that end up being disputable when one actually looks at the data and the trends?
It’s not like the outlets have some kind of an agenda or something, now is it. No-o-o-o, of course not.
There is plenty of blame to go around. No climate expert is going to risk their career by mumbling or skipping the shibboleths.
Some years ago–30 to be exact–I was in Heidelberg, Germany during a flood of the Neckar River. On Die Alte Brucke there were painted markers for previous floods, all dated. Many lines were visible–that is, marking much higher floods than the present. Significantly, lots of them were in the 1800s. So tell me again, what is new?
Exactly. A few years back they had major flooding in western Germany and Belgium/Luxembourg. As soon as I saw that news, I KNEW they would be attempting to blame “climate change.” Sure enough, within a day, the inevitable climate propaganda came along.
Meanwhile, that region had flood records going back some 650 years, and not only was there MUCH WORSE flooding in the same area long ago, but there were also MULTIPLE flooding events in the same area that were a VIRTUAL BLUEPRINT for the latest flooding event.
In other words, it was WEATHER, NOT CLIMATE. Just like always.
I cannot remember where this picture is from, but it is somewhere in Germany. I downloaded it a few years ago when a recent flood had brought out all the claims of ‘worst on record’. The high water mark from that event can still be seen to be about the same as one in 1995.
The more things change, the more they remain the same.
It’s Munden Hockwasserstande Packoff
The same is true of the river Ouse at York. Walk up to Clifford’s Tower and you will see many dated marks showing flood heights over hundreds of years. “Extreme weather” today seems very weak beer compared with the old days.
Ecclesiastes 1:9
The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done: and there is no new thing under the sun.
Misanthropy and anthropisation
“”Climate change: a threat to human wellbeing and health of the planet”” … IPCC
What is the health of Mars, Europa, Titan etc? Measured against what?
The IPCC is a[n impossible] stasis production…
Time magazine: a once widely-respected and widely-referenced periodical, now rapidly heading for the dustbin of history.
And a number of toilets – in case the paper runs out.
I had a subscription a few years ago- it was horrible- 100% woke.
We recently returned from a river cruise on the Danube from Budapest to Passau. All of the cities we stopped in could recount long records of river flooding. Below is a picture of me taken Aug 26 in Passau, Germany a short walk from the river; a dozen or so feet above the river level at that time. The lines show historic flood levels going back to 1501. I am 6 feet tall and the only flood which would have left my head above water was 1920. Lowest to highest levels occurred in 1920, 2002, 1895, 1899, 1862, 1787, 1954, 1595, 2013, and 1501. There is no trend line here in either frequency or extent.
We were fortunate to take our cruise when we did; a month later it would have been impossible. The Viking river ships can completely retract the pilot house, fold down the deck railings, and “ballast down” by nearly a meter, but there are still occasions when they can’t pass under certain bridges. Other times the river level is too low and they can’t pass over shallow areas. The unpredictability of the river is one of the reasons you buy trip insurance.
That building must have been built to withstand flooding.
What a concept! As should be done in the US, instead of taxpayer funded insurance “pools” and repeated “rebuilding.”
Parliament House in London has been flooded several times in the past. Are there any markers there?
So that’s what a Level 7 Climate Denialist looks like! 🙂
I bet they blamed it on all those ‘4 Hoofed Horses’…
oops.. just posted the same picture upthread. I should know by now to check all posts to make sure I’m not duplicating stuff. Sorry ’bout that.
Worth saying twice to drive it home to the warmongers
We’ve just had some flooding near where I live in the UK. There is a large flat playground area next to the river that was built in 2000 called the “Millenium Green” People are posting pictures of it flooded like a lake without seemingly realising that that was what it was designed to do. None of the houses set 5 feet above the area have been subject to flooding.
In the Las Vegas, Nevada area there are numerous artificial water catchment basins to impound the significant excess water from periodic flash floods. Many are used by municipalities/people for parks and built-up recreation areas.
When life gives people lemons they always make lemonade; unless the Leftist politicians and Deep State ideologues screw up normal life as they are wont to do. FJB and Cameltoe.
I gather the Green Blob is very much against dredging the old canals in England, which contributes to flooding.
Not just canals, rivers as well. An EU ‘rule’, imposed/adopted in England, “No dredging of rivers.”
(I believe that there’s an old WUWT article on the subject.)
after all, yuh don’t wanna disturb the snails or worms in the mud! 🙂
It was probably a marsh or swamp in primeval times. They used to be common along most rivers until drained- and the draining or filling made flooding worse elsewhere.
It would be far more efficient and far less expensive to just single out a few witches to burn, as their ancestors did, but I guess that would put some grant money at risk.
Perhaps a large grant could be offered to put on a really big witch burning event!
The Tuesday funny
That Starmer Labour conference speech…
STARMER CALLS FOR “RETURN OF THE SAUSAGES” IN MIDDLE EAST
https://order-order.com/2024/09/24/starmer-calls-for-return-of-the-sausages-in-middle-east/
What can one say?
Why just sausages?
#BlackPuddingsMatter
T-shirt printers could be on to make a quick buck out of this meme. 🌭
“Climate Change” flooding caused by Man’s CO2?
How far back does that go?
Before terms like “1,000, 100, 50 year floods” were used by professionals?
(I don’t mean misused by the MSM.)
Is flooding suddenly something new?
Why do periodicals continue to publish the weather function backwards?
Weather causes climate, climate does not cause weather.
You’d think they all would have figured this out by now. But no, they insist on repeating over and over again the logical fallacy that a result is the cause.
Why, its almost as if there is a conspiracy to spread disinformation in print. But then, we must use reason to choose the simplest answer to the question.
Modern Journalists are just idiots.
Why do periodicals continue to publish the weather function backwards?
Use the Orwellian filter:
War is peace etc
CO2 is pollution
“Modern Journalists” are for the most part *not* journalists.
1962 I think, the Narmada rose over 60′ (usual monsoon about 35). Interestingly, the main north-south road and railway laid out by the British more than 100 years before were well about this unusual event. The road causeway near our house remained 6′ above 20’deep water and a rushing very large culvert. Seem as it planning and drainage work.
This is a slightly tangent comment. “Time” has to me always been a physical constant not a failing/flailing media outlet. The title here; “Wrong, Time, Climate Change Did Not Cause Flooding in Europe” left me confused until I realized Time meant “Time the media front” not a technical chronology. I guess I am so old that I also remember when “Scientific American” was not an ironic title.
The central Europe ‘Mary Magdelene’ flood of 1342 was massive. It has taken over 600 years for us to get close to that mark again. Alarming, not!
Every time there is “bad weather,” they draw the dotted line to “climate change.”
It is pure propaganda at this point, nothing more. The “attribution studies” are nonsense, and are used simply to provide “cover” for the naked propaganda.
The record of flooding in central Europe goes back to the 1500s and is as long as your arm. Hundreds if not thousands of larger and smaller floods. Nothing new there. However nowadays we get a few more days advance warning than a century ago, information with which the civil authorities .. do absolutely bugger all.
Very nice Linnea.
I know this is a crazy idea, but hear me out! Instead of spending untold billions on windmills, solar panels, hydrogen conversion EVs and every other dumb “climate change” solution. Why not invest the money in engineering ie dredging, building barriers (dikes) raising buildings, pumping stations to remove excess water etc. etc. I have heard about something called “the industrial revolution.” Maybe they could try all those old oppressive colonial ideas. But then I am a Racist.
“Why not invest the money in engineering…”
Because common sense is now extinct.
That floods are getting higher on the Danube is not even close to the truth. Here is a photograph I took on 25 May 2015 of the wall at Kloster Weltenburg, just after the exit from the Danube gorge.
I remember when the Maribyrnong River flooded in Melbourne in 2022. Relatives, who buy into the alarmist dogma, were insistent that it was yet another sign of the impacts of “climate change”. However, when I informed them that the Flemington Racecourse, which sits along the banks of the Maribyrnong River, was protected by the levy bank that was built at the 100 year flood level, and that the only properties effected were those that were built, rather foolishly, on the flood plain of the river and that the cause of the flooding was going to be largely due to population increase and land use changes (increasing the speed that water flows through the river system), the subject was quickly changed and no mention of that flood has been made since. Unfortunately, they are yet to examine their beliefs in an empirical way and realise that they are actually far more religious than they think, just that their religion is Scientism.
You are now probably the black sheep of the family!
I’ve long been the black sheep of the family. I’m happy to discuss pretty much any topic that they want, but I’m rarely asked because the answers I give are what the Australian government now calls “misinformation”. Perhaps one day, the fact that their belief system (which they consider to be non-religious) does not conform to reality will hit them, but I’m not holding my breath.
It’s impossible for anyone to know that. Impossible. No one can know what any given storm may or may not have done. They’re simply lying.
“Every time we do an attribution study, we tend to find that the events we see have been exacerbated by climate change,,,”. We found it, it must be so. What do you mean “models might be wrong”? 😉
I hate the word “exacerbated”. It’s pretentious. And sounds ugly.
My wife and I have recently finished a river cruise from Amsterdam to Bucharest. Rhine, Main and Danube Rivers. Every single town along the route had centuries old stories and indicators of regular severe flooding. This is nothing new.