News Brief by Kip Hansen — 11 September 2024 — 500 words
There is an interesting story from gCaptain – “the world’s leading maritime and offshore website, and we are dedicated to quality news and building an interactive community of maritime professionals.”
“In Desperate Move Russia Sends First-Ever Conventional LNG Carrier Through Arctic” by Malte Humpert — September 8, 2024. Why is it a “desperate move”?
“In a risky move aimed at overcoming Western sanctions Russian LNG producer Novatek dispatched the non-ice class LNG carrier Everest Energy onto the icy waters of the Northern Sea Route. It is the first time a conventional carrier has attempted the route.”
“The voyage represents a further escalation of the risk profile of Arctic shipping. Everest Energy does not hold a permit by Russia’s Arctic permitting authority, the Northern Sea Route Administration. It is also traveling under a suspended Palauan flag with its P&I insurance status unknown.”
If you know the name of a sea going vessel, you can almost always find information on the ship itself, and if you are willing to pay a small fee, its current location. For the Everest Energy we can look to MarineTraffic.com, which reports that, as of 8 days ago, she was underway north of Murmansk. gCaptain reports that she is now in the Kara Sea heading east.
Mid-September is certainly the right time to be attempting this passage in a non-ice classed vessel.
“Everest Energy is part of Russia’s emerging LNG shadow fleet first reported on by gCaptain in early August. It traveled to the Arctic LNG 2 project for a second time last week and departed late on September 6. It has since entered the Kara Sea traveling east towards Asia.”
Here the Arctic Sea Ice Concentrations animation for the last 90 days from the National Snow and Ice Data Center:
[to see the animation, click the arrow in the center or in the lower left corner]
That sanctioned LNG is now traveling up and over the length of Russia heading for markets in Asia. There seems there may be substantial ice still in the Eastern Siberian Sea — where ice breakers may be needed.
While we have that Arctic Sea Ice animation up, watch the other side, the Canadian Northwest Passage – while listening to the incredible Stan Rodgers sing his song by the same title [pick you music server below the title].
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Author’s Comment:
Pretty gusty to take a vessel like the Everest Energy into ice country. I wish them luck.
If the planet would just warm up a little more, we could ease the traffic currently backing up at the Panama Canal.
Thanks for reading.
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Well, it might work?
Not sure I understand. There seems to be other cargo and tanker traffic on this route. Is LNG any different?
David ==> Vessels that use the Northeast Passage should be ice-classed vessels.
It is one thing for an ore carrier, not ice-classed, to make the passage. A wreck would only mean the pollution of a sunk vessel (fuel, oil, etc).
An LNG carrier is another matter. Imagine the ship ruptured by ice followed by a fuel/air explosion of that much natural gas….or “A boiling liquid expanding vapour explosion (BLEVE)” of such a vessel due to be caught and crush by winter ice.
There is considerable shipping going through the Northeast Passage. It is escorted by nuclear ice breakers rather than requiring ice-classed vessels.
Got it. Thanks Kip.
Just did a bit of research. Statistically, the best northeast passage time is mid-September—now. But that does not mean the passage is ‘ice free’, only that the remaining sea ice is at a minimum.
Since Russian LNG is sanctioned because of Ukraine, the ship is probably trying to reach China. It will be stuck there for an year unless takes the long way around Africa return, as Red Sea is effectively closed by Huthis in Yemen.
China is reported as reducing its petroleum demands. Both Russia and India are already bypassing Houthis and sanctions. Saudi is all but trading for oil in Yuan.
https://anasalhajjieoa.substack.com/p/the-impact-chinas-evs-and-lng-trucks
https://www.ft.com/content/6f81585c-321a-41fb-bcdb-579e93381671
https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/uk-sanctions-ten-ships-from-russias-shadow-fleet/article68629815.ece
https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/special-reports/saudi-china-ties-and-renminbi-based-oil-trade
To me it seems more likely that this is a small, speculative demonstration that sanctions are essetially meaningless.
Or it could be that Russia is more and more dependent on selling oil and LNG and as an analysis I saw yesterday postulated is becoming subject to the Dutch disease.
The growth of the Russian economy says: no.
“as Red Sea is effectively closed by Huthis in Yemen”
I think this will change if Trump is elected.
Biden created this situation by allowing the Mad Mullahs of Iran to sell their oil and make hundreds of billions of dollars with which they fund and supply the terrorist Houthis. And then Biden ignores them when they shut down the Red Sea route. He ignores them because he wants to kowtow to the Mad Mullahs of Iran.
The Houthis get their intelligence information from an Iranian intelligence-gathering ship that is stationed in this area.
After Trump is elected, if the Houthis attack another ship in the Red Sea, then Trump should sink this Iranian intelligence ship, and of course, should use force against the Houthis to stop them from attacking commercial shipping in the Red Sea, in the future
As is obvious, Biden appeasement of murderous dictators only leads to more and more trouble. Murderous dictators need to be in fear for their lives, as this is the only thing that constrains them, otherwise they commit heinous acts. No murderous dictator in the world is afraid of Biden, and so they kill as they please.
All of the murderous dictators of the world are afraid of Trump.
Biden/Harris should vet the criminals entering the US, who then commit heinous crimes against innocent Democrats and Republicans.
Sometimes they get caught, then freed without bail, then repeat their criminal trade
Those folks likely came from third world criminal neighborhoods and penal colonies, know all about various ways to hurt and steal.
Those dregs of societies will not make America great again
Vote for Trump en masse to oust Democrats from government positions.
I disagree with your stated notion that Trump would “change” the Red Sea/Israel/Gaza situation.
First of all, while Trump’s first administration was clearly less war mongering than Biden’s existing administration – the war is already on. Even if Trump wanted to end that war – it is far from clear that the powerful AIPAC lobby, Congress and the Deep State/neocons/MIC would listen. Trump ordered US troops out of Syria, for example, and the US military just didn’t do it.
Secondly, even if Trump tried to take a hard stand against the Gaza conflict that is the reason for the Houthis’ actions – the only tool that can work is cutting off Israel from US money and bombs. I don’t see that happening.
Most importantly: the Houthis’ are winning. What exactly could any US president offer them to offset the massive reputational and adrenaline turbocharging that the Houthis’ are getting by fighting the US Navy to a standstill?
Russia has a fleet of about 20 large ice breakers, some are $billion dollar, 700-ft long, nuclear powered, that go at a steady pace through up to 7 meters of ice.
In mid September, the ice is very thin on the east side
A smallish icebreaker will be sufficient to lead a convoy of LNG vessels.
Some Russian and French LNG vessels have re-inforced hulls that can do their own ice breaking, up to about 1 meter at a steady pace.
At other times, larger ice breakers are required.
wilpost ==> This is a first for an non-ice classed LNG tanker….there are legitimate concerns. The featured article is by professional mariners — they understand the risks involved.
The issue is that this vessel, the Everest energy is no ice-classed. She is not being escorted by an ice breaker. If she gets into trouble, it will be big trouble.
Russia will likely have an ice breaker available nearby, in case the ice is too thick, say more than a foot.
The LNG vessel waits, then that ice breaker will lead the way.
Finland is also very good at dealing with ice. When I was in Helsinki, in the summer, about 15 years ago, I saw these huge ice breakers, and was very impressed by how big they were.
Russia is promoting their new seaway.
Russia has major economic interest to ensure all goes well.
Russia does not want adverse PR.
Russia likely is alert regarding any western sabotage.
gCaptain the publication has a very pronounced Western slant to its reporting. Look around for some of the editorials posted there to see this.
I would not automatically assume that anything they said with regards to Russia and the Western sanctions regime is reliable.
Unfortunately we don’t know how she is being escorted as the Russian no longer make available vessel positions in the Northern Sea Route area. AIS is not so reliable up there, assuming that vessels have their trackers switched on in the first place. It is doubtful whether a full ice breaker would be needed in present ice conditions. The ability to follow close behind one of the Arc 7 class LNG carriers in convoy is probably sufficient, at least if the weather is reasonably calm.
Russian LNG has been going to Korea and Japan and Taiwan in addition to China. The Chinese have taken to going via the Cape (of Good Hope) rather than risking the Red Sea. Their Arc 7 class vessels have been doing the run to NWE – Rotterdam and Dunkerque among recent destinations. Perhaps Europeans feel more comfortable if their Russian LNG arrives in a non-Russian vessel.
.
LNG vessels that are not part of the Arctic fleet are free to charter themselves out for any voyage. Having landed up in the FEAST they could pick up a cargo in Indonesia, Malaysia, Australia – or perhaps head for Oman and Qatar. No need to go all the way back to Europe.
A month ago the Everest Energy was at Gibraltar – probably for refuelling. Being of dubious status means that she probably has to wait around to be chartered. In previous years she ran the Oman-China route, and routes from Australia within the FEAST. SHe has changed hands a number of times, most recently last year.
And Suez, given the despicable assaults, by the Houthis on innocent merchant ships – and their civilian crews. Many ships are being diverted around the Cape of Good Hope – but container ships, especially, risk losing boxes overboard in those waters.
Not to mention the risk of large oil spills.
Much fuss recently over a 3 tonne oil spill off the Canaries – but the 150,000 tonnes of crude on a damaged and abandoned tanker – the ‘Sounion’ – has had little publicity.
https://gcaptain.com/sounion-salvage-operation-faces-setback-in-red-sea/
Auto
Yes despicable assaults on civilians in Gaza – oh wait, you mean ships carrying war materials and economic support to the nation that is assaulting those civilians.
Right.
Build a f#&#&$ pipeline
Kevin ==> This is Russian LNG — there was a pipeline, but “something” happened to it. Russian LNG is under various sanctions due to the Ukraine situation. Russia needs to SELL its LNG to pay for the huge LNG terminals it has built on the Kara Sea. Russia would like to sell this LNG to Europe….
This year the more lucrative market is in the Far East.
https://timera-energy.com/blog/gas-market-state-of-play-in-5-charts-2/
https://timera-energy.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/C2.svg
Have you heard of the ‘Power of Siberia’ pipeline?
“Power of Siberia is a Gazprom-operated pipeline in Eastern Siberia that transports natural gas from Yakutia to Primorsky Krai and China.”
Cool, thanks! (No I had not heard of it)
They are building pipelines. But the 1st one is full and the second one takes years to bridge the literal thousands of miles.
Ah, the fabled North West Passage.
It’s as intermittent / unreliable as wind and solar electricity generation.
But it still has its global warming “true believers” who try every year to navigate the “now-melted” Arctic ice fields.
(I was hoping that at some stage, there would be a class action against Al Gore et al by yachties who had to be dragged in to Siberia or Russia after being hopelessly wedged in 3 feet thick ice each summer).
The polar bears think of this northeast passage scheme as a food delivery service.
Yeah, but they don’t tip well at all.
The delivery boys won’t be around to complain about the tips on anti-social media.
FYI the “fabled North West Passage” is currently “wide open”.
and will be right up to the time that it’s not
And when will that be?
when the Ship Of Fools sets sail. wait for it.
Like Avonborg you mean?
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/09/11/a-desperate-run-through-the-northeast-passage/#comment-3968534
Lord Franklin
Mr. ==> I knew a “kid” who solo circumnavigated the Americas, going north from Annapolis over the top, down the Pacific Coasts, down under south America, then back up to Annapolis.
I contributed the very smallest of help to his effort — gave him cash to buy navigation tools while he was in the USVI, a couple of years earlier, so he could take his Captain’s Course and get US Coastguard certified. Of course, he arrived in USVI already having sailed solo to the UK down to Africa and back across the Atlantic, solo.
I was hoping Al Gore would have gotten himself hopelessly wedged in three feet of ice. Preferably with his feet on top.
Not necessarily true. The planet has warmed since 2007 and it still has the same Arctic sea ice extent.
Javier ==> The Northwest Passage is navigable in the present — Matt Rutherford sailed it solo a dozen years ago. His timing was such that he over-wintered up there somewhere. He was sailing, limiting his speed to ~5 kts/hr.
There are passenger cruise ships that use the NW Passage.
“The Passage represents a potentially attractive and valuable commercial shipping route if it were to become more accessible for navigation at a longer period of the year.”
It is accessible now, for parts of the year.
Ships also carry commercial cargos through the NW Passage in summer. See for example:
It’s a bold strategy, Putin. Let’s see if it pays off for you.
George ==> There is already a lot of traffic in the Northeast Passage — but not LNG and not in non-ice classed vessels. And only for a somewhat short period each year — depending.
“Dodgeball” reference.
Vlad already possesses a large fleet of ice hardened LNG tankers for use on the Northern Sea Route:
https://www.ship-technology.com/projects/christophe-de-margerie-class-icebreaking-lng-carriers/
Eduard Toll has just got back to the Sabetta LNG terminal after a trip to the far east.
Most of the Russian Sabetta fleet is on FEAST duty at the moment. The Chinese are helping out on the Europe run.
“The Chinese are helping out”
That’s intriguing! Do you have any specific vessels in mind?
Everybody will no doubt be overjoyed to learn that Everest Energy has safely reached the Gulf of Anadyr without apparent incident: