Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
The Seattle Times, in its usual alarmist fashion, has an article about how the dreaded “rising seas” are forcing the Quinault Nation to move its main town, Taholah.
Seeing that, I decided to take an overview of the claims about Taholah. A Google search for “Taholah rising seas” finds over eighty media claims that “rising seas” are threatening Taholah. Searching “Taholah climate change” finds a bunch more. A Bing search for “Taholah” and “rising seas” yields no less than 1,830 articles. And they’re all singing from the same hymnbook, going on about seawater incursions into the town and raving about how rising sea levels are the cause … but not one of them has taken the time to investigate the facts.
Here’s an overview of where Taholah is located, on the Olympic Peninsula up near the Canadian border, about as far north as Seattle.
Figure 1. Overview of the location of the main town of the Quinault Nation, Taholah
Let me start with the important question. Do the good folks of the Quinault Nation need to move their largest town?
Yes, absolutely they do, but not because of climate change or rising sea levels.
The real reason they need to move? Because when, not if but when the next tsunami comes, it will wipe them off the map. Most of the town is less than sixteen feet (five meters) above sea level.
And curiously, the geological forces that create the tsunamis also mean that the sea level at Taholah isn’t even rising … I’ll return to that in a bit. First, let’s delve into the tsunamis.
Geological evidence shows that the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ), which runs from Northern California to Vancouver Island, Canada, produces large tsunamis that threaten the coasts of Washington, Oregon, British Columbia, and Northern California every four hundred to five hundred years on average. And it’s been a while since the last big one in 1700… we’re coming due. That’s why I said when the tsunami comes, and not if the tsunami comes. It is inevitable. A NOAA article on the question says:
“It has been over 300 years since the 1700 event. In this time, stress has been building between the plates. Evidence suggests it may not be too long before the next great earthquake shakes the region.
We do not know when that will happen. It could be tomorrow, or it could be many years from now.
It could be a magnitude 9.0 “full rip” or a partial rupture (magnitude 8+). Either would have significant impacts.”
Seems to me like a more than adequate reason to move Taholah to higher ground right there, no need for further excuses …
So what is the connection between tsunamis and sea levels? Well, the CSZ is where the Juan de Fuca, Explorer, and Gorda tectonic plates subduct beneath the North American plate. The plates colliding are what creates the earthquakes that generate these monster tsunamis.
And in that ongoing slow collision between plates, the North American plate is continually being forced upwards fast enough that at some Pacific Northwest coastal locations, sea levels are actually falling. Here are the local NOAA tidal stations. Blue arrows show where the sea levels are falling.
Figure 2. Nearest NOAA tidal stations to the Quinault Nation town of Taholah.
Note that of the three stations nearest to Taholah on the coast, two of them show falling sea levels and one shows a rising sea level … here’s the rising sea level at the first station south of Taholah.
Figure 3. NOAA sea level trend, Toke Point, Washington
Now, there’s something interesting about this record. The uncertainty (± 0.71 mm/year) is larger than the trend (0.43 mm/year). And when that happens, statistically we cannot even say whether the sea level is rising or falling—it could be either one.
Next, here’s the falling sea level from Astoria, Oregon, the next tide station south of Toke Point.
Figure 4. NOAA sea level trends, Astoria, Oregon
This record, although it is much longer than the Toke Point record above, shows the same thing—the uncertainty is greater than the trend. So once again, statistically we can’t say if the sea level is rising or falling in Astoria.
We can say, however, that it is highly unlikely (~2.5% chance) that the sea level is rising more than the trend plus the uncertainty, which is 0.15 mm per year. That highly unlikely occurrence is about 15 mm (0.6 inches) per century … be still, my beating heart …
Finally, here’s the Neah Bay record from up at the north tip of the Olympic Peninsula.
Figure 5. NOAA sea level trends, Neah Bay, Washington
Here, the uncertainty is far smaller than the trend, so statistically, we can say that the sea level around Neah Bay is falling due to the land being forced upwards faster than the global rise in sea level.
So given that the sea level isn’t rising around Taholah, why is Taholah seeing water incursions into town?
It’s because they built the town on unconsolidated estuarine silt and soil in the Quinault River delta … and as such soils inevitably do over time, they are compacting and sinking, and taking the town down with them. This is indeed tragic, but it has exactly zero to do with sea level rise.
Figure 6. Closeup of Taholah and the Quinault River delta.
To summarize: South of Taholah, there’s no statistically significant sea level rise or fall, and north of Taholah, the sea level is falling.
This, of course, all means that the dozens and dozens and dozens of articles claiming that Taholah is endangered by rising sea levels are … well … let me call them “ludicrously misinformed” and leave it at that.
And the conclusion from this?
You absolutely cannot trust the modern media to do even the simplest verification of factual claims. And you can’t believe them even if they agree with each other—the media consensus is as meaningless as the so-called “scientific consensus”. Here we have over a hundred articles by various print, online, and tv media from all over the planet, all passionately and forcefully repeating the same easily checked falsehood.
This would have been somewhat acceptable before the internet, but it took me a total of about fifteen minutes to look up the local sea level rise and to learn that Taholah cannot possibly be endangered by sea level rise because the sea level is not rising around Taholah.
In closing, let me say that I wish the good folks of the Quinault Nation all the best in their plans to move to higher ground. Moving a whole town is not an easy thing to do, but as the saying goes, “Needs must when the devil drives” … and a giant tsunami certainly qualifies as a devil in my book.
My very best to everyone, and to all you good media folks out there … do your dang homework, because in 2024 you can be sure that if you don’t, someone else will …
w.
PS: It’s also obvious from these sea level records that there is no acceleration in the rate of sea level rise … but that’s a separate question.
My Usual: When you comment, I implore you to quote the exact words you are discussing. I’m more than happy to defend my words, but I can’t defend your interpretation of my words. Thanks.
Proving Me Wrong: If you wish to prove me wrong, here is how to do it. Hele on!
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Nice research Willis. “You absolutely cannot trust the modern media to do even the simplest verification of factual claims.” +1M So called “journalists” today, like the politicians, many scientists, and educators prefer to toe the line than report/teach the truth/facts and risk the consequences of upsetting the Marxists who have infiltrated or bought key positions in government, education, and business and used their power to bully those beneath them.
In my short 70 years, 5 times I’ve seen or heard of things reported of which I had first hand, personal, knowledge of what really happened.
All 5 got it wrong in the reporting. Not just a difference of opinion. The facts were wrong. What actually happened was wrong.
Knoll’s Law…
In an old B&W movie “His Girl Friday“, Cary Grant is the Chief Editor and Rosalind Russel his top reporter.
All of the news employees except Rosalind’s character lie through their teeth, constantly.
I grew up suspecting reporters weren’t quite telling me any truth.
To their credit, misspelling my name or some other personal information just proved my point, several times.
Certainly extreme bias, such as the Seattle Times which takes payment from climate catastrophists, and the Times Colonist in Victoria BC.
I think that financial troubles of previously mainstream media are in substantial part because potential readers want balance and facts.
If I was king/dictator over the journalism profession, I would mandate that part of the curriculum for journalism students would be a range of physical sciences, mechanical engineering, etc – the irrefutable way the real world works, to put it simply. Then I would further mandate that journalism students be forbidden to receive journalism degrees unless they maintained a C+ grade average or better in those science classes, along with getting an A grade in a course solely teaching what due diligence means. I posit that if we’d had a responsible, objective news media back in the 1990s on that latter point alone, concerning a particular non-science element of the climate issue, we would not even be talking about the ‘climate crisis’ today.
You left out logic.
Young people, when asked, say they are going into journalism because they “want to make a difference”. Making a difference may conflict with reporting the actual facts in an unbiased way.
This is why I’m tempted to enroll in journalism school simply to find out what is being taught and how it is taught starting at Day 1. When an person enrolls in flight school and learns how to become the most skilled possible helicopter pilot, sure the person may change the world by deftly performing a rescue of a prominent world leader later on, but the original flight instructor didn’t tell students that their goal was to change the world, it was to fly / land safely and smoothly and ensure proper observation over the condition of flight operations. Period. What scares me is that journalism instructors are not telling their students that a reporter’s goal is to report facts, but instead are telling them the goal of reporters is to change the world.
As has become the norm news media, in this case Seattle Times, on the net does not allow commentary. This practice seems to have started in 2019. It has the feeling of being a coordinated effort.
For sure on at least some things, Seattle Times has been shutting down factual criticism since 2014. That is when I published essay ‘Shell Games’ in ebook Blowing Smoke, an express factual critique of their bogus ‘ocean acidification ‘ series titled “sea change”. I sent them a draft hoping for a correction or response prior to publication. Nope. When I then tried a ‘letter to editor’, nope.
I suspect ST knew that if they did respond, it would just sell more copies of my critique book. So Cliff Mass kindly took it up and published his own Seattle blog version of my critique focused on the second of the two essay examples, Miyagi oysters. Clear PNEL government scientific misconduct.
I think with comments the media realized that any scientist can make a journalist look like a halfwit
Any old monkey clattering away at a typewriter can make a churnalist look like a halfwit.
….journalist look like a halfwit…
But pseudoscientists think that a journalist can make them look like a genius….
PS: It’s also obvious from these sea level records that there is no acceleration in the rate of sea level rise … but that’s a separate question.
__________________________________________________________________
See my post from this morning’s WUWT Kip Hansen post:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/07/21/comparing-uah-temperatures-nasa-sea-levels-and-el-nino-la-nina-data/#comment-3944594
And some of the follow up comments.
But you’re right, it’s a separate question from the Tahola media
exaggerationslies.SC, too local a sample to make that
HLS Al judgement, IMO . But you are correct in conclusion. Go global using all >60 year dGPS vertical land motion corrected tide gauge records and there is still NO acceleration. Plus, the estimated global rate of 2.2mm/yr closes exactly. See my old post here, ‘sea level rise, acceleration, and closure’.
“See my old post here…”
________________________
You didn’t make “here” a link. )-:
Rud’s post is here, Steve.
w.
Thanks, and by the way Willis, I can be condescending too.
Willis, you’re being cruel again by using data to prove they are wrong!
How dare you!
Not only cruel but no doubt reeking of race or ethnic-based discrimination, white supremacist pronouncements, gender denialism, rejection of indigenous knowledge, and embarrassing journalists almost everywhere. Surely freedom of the press and speech precepts can’t redeems such behaviour, especially when based on racist data and racists mathematics.
Mr. Eschenbach, astute investigation and article as usual. As WUWT reaches a global audience – if I may, I wish to add additional insight to the political machinations of the local North American Pacific Northwest region, and specifically Washington State (as a near life-long resident). Since the political virtual takeover of State government by the Democrats/far left -a process accomplished over time and accelerated by mail-in voting – a trend could be seen in biased reporting through local media, where the ‘global warming-carbon (sic) is evil’ dogma espoused by the government was almost exclusively reflected in the various media output. This was a main reason I stopped purchasing the local pulp-paper medium circa 2015. Recently in Washington state, the legislature ramrodded through (without a vote of the people and at the 11th hour) an act they labeled the ‘Climate Commitment Act’ which taxes all carbon atom containing fuels in the state (whether produced or imported therein) at the wholesale level. The producer or importer must buy carbon credits and must then decide to charge those fees at the consumers lev
Sorry, on the cell phone and hit post! To continue my rant….
…at the consumer level, which was done. We therefore now pay a 45 cent premium per petrol gallon, as well as a similar charge for methane (natural gas). These funds are collected by the State, and by statute are to be used for climate related projects, as decided by a non-elected board of local special- interest groups, which of course includes representatives of the local Native American (First Nation’s for you Canucks!) Tribes. This board decides which projects receive the tax largess. To tie my rant into a somewhat logical conclusion, the local PNW media must put forth the rising sea level mantra, to justify the inclusion of the tax monies to assist the movement of Taholah, for the fictitious global warming rising sea level reason, and not the tsunami factual reason.
Rant complete!
Best regards,
MCR
I bought a T shirt in Cannon Beach, Oregon, which has this message silk screened on the back of it: “Tsunami evacuation plan: finish beer, run like hell!”
I tell my neighbors who live here in The Middle of Nowhere, Southeastern Washington State, that if the Cascadia Fault ‘Big One’ happens in our lifetimes, we must be prepared to take in some number of earthquake refugees from the west sides of Oregon and Washington.
I hope it takes out I-90 and thus sends those folks to Portland.
Impossible. Washington bureaucrats changed the building code to accommodate the Cascadia event. Tax dollars are being plowed into road structure reinforcement. Building permit requirements are crazy. So don’t worry. We will be just fine.
I got on the internet back in the mid 90’s. UseNet is where I spent most of
my time and one of the first things I noticed was how much the media lies. I
don’t recall the specific details now but there was a big national story up front
and one of the regulars from the area of the story on the newsgroup made
a point and showed on how it was a total lie. Also during my time in the military
while in SE Asia after getting a copy of Time& Newsweek magazine that had a piece
on an operation we were earlier involved with they told it totally wrong, and it leaned a
certain direction.. Things seemed to change with the scrutiny of the Net but it
seems now to have been taken to a very slanted direction.
Telling fibs:
It was the early 1960’s. I’d just bought my first transistor radio. Sanyo, Ten Transistor, medium wave and short wave bands. Got home, unboxed it, installed AA cells. Out to the front verandah, antenna extended. Local stations, loud and clear. Started tuning across the short wave band. A strong signal, a female voice, no particular accent, reading the news. “Today Indian forces fired two hundred rounds of artillery fire at Chinese positions.” I waited till a station ID was given “This is Radio Peking”. Had supper. Back outside, still on short wave. An Australian Broadcasting Commission (ABC) news, “Today Chinese forces fired two hundred rounds of artillery fire at Indian positions.”
For some reason it was about that time that I started to have some slight doubts about ‘accuracy of the news’. That doubt has only been reinforced over the years. Today when I come across a ‘news source’ I’m not familiar with, I look at how they report on subjects that I have personal knowledge of. If my experience tells me “That’s wrong”, then I assume that stories about other subjects are just as wrong.
It is sad that most national shortwave broadcasters have now shut down. There are still a few numbers stations intoning into the darkness of space though! That’s pretty retro.
I read the Seattle Times article via Willis’s provided link, to find the following statement in the article: “EDITOR’S NOTE: This is part of a series [of] on how tribes and Indigenous communities are coping with and combating climate change.”. From what I know of the media and their knowledge of Earth’s climate, I see the media’s “series on how tribes and indigenous communities are coping with and combating climate change” more correctly as: “how the media is happily using perils of yet another group of people to push the insane man made global warming agenda“.
It’s how they are paid. They find that checkout-aisle-tabloid-style articles are getting the majority of “clicks” that they need to survive. Outlandish claims get “clicks”. Authors of the articles get paid by the word but soon discover that only near-fantasy clickbait results in a paycheck.
And retractions of those claims get 1/1000th as many clicks.
The media can print scary climate fairy tales much faster than conservatives ca refute them,
A scary story gets attention
A serious article refuting the scary prediction is not very interesting to most people.
Science fiction versus Science fact
Unfortunately, it’s no contest
NEWS ALERT! Joey Biden has announced that he will drop out of Presidential race ….due to incurable toenail fungus….caused by climate change.
It’s because he was going to lose to Trump and, if you put yourself before the nation…
You wouldn’t be fit to be leader in the first place.
Toenail fungus – Joe thinks this is going to be his way to “save face”
Remember COVID Vax statement – can’t get COVID? See it here (it’s slow to load): 23 sec video: https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-2021-video-saying-vaccinations-prevent-covid-resurfaces-1726900
Seems that the more jabs you get…
.. the more susceptible to catching the next variant you become.
Story Tip?
New German Study Shocks: “Significant Positive Correlation Between Excess Mortality, COVID 19 Vaccinations (notrickszone.com)
Native village? They look like modern western style houses and modern western style street layouts.
Anyway…
“Civilization exists by geological consent, subject to change without notice.”
Will Durant
What? No teepees? And horses? And feather headdresses?
The media have highlighted the fact that this settlement is native as this gives the story a bit more emotion. According to the Church of Climate Change it is evil white man that has brought climate change down onto all the righteous indigenous peoples and women and this has been caused by White Man’s science and technology. White Man’s technology and science produces the houses and roads in this native village. I’m certain that the Quinault nation choose to live in modern houses and drive cars and maybe they keep alive their traditions at the same time and why shouldn’t they? I wish them well, however they choose to live their lives, as long as they don’t blame me.
In 2007 the leader of Greenland’s indigenous human rights organisation the Inuit Circumpolar Council and expert member of United Nations Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues, Aqqaluk Lynge, came to the UK and gave evidence to a Public Inquiry into the proposed expansion of Stansted Airport. Speaking as a witness for campaign group Stop Stansted Expansion (SSE), Mr Lynge highlighted the impacts of climate change which are already being experienced in the Arctic and call for a halt to the airport expansion proposals which would add to the global warming burden which is already affecting the traditional Inuit way of life. He also addressed MPs at the Houses of Parliament about the frontline impacts of climate change.
The Eskimos… er… uh… Inuit are worried about warming? 🙂
Perhaps they are worried they will have to use their Kayaks as per usual? I wonder where the word kayak comes from? I guess the Inuit must be practiced in kayaking?
Wrong tribes. Come to the eastern side to see all of those — at the county fairs.
I’ve always thought that in the animal kingdom sheep get a bad press. But comparing them to journalists is very hard on sheep.
Your argument is a bit woolly.
Nice catch, WE. ‘They’ tried the same thing with an Inuit village in Alaska some years back (which you also caught), ignoring that there relative sea level really is strongly falling t hanks to tectonic upthrust. It seems ‘they’ have no shame because there are never consequences. And MSM has long followed the maxim ‘if it bleeds, it leads’. Plenty of ‘their’ climate stories soaked in fake ‘blood’ for MSM to echo.
We like to think that this is new, but it has always been the case that papers, radio, and television publish what the owner wants. Walter Lippmann, notably of the New York Times and the Wilson administration, wrote Public Opinion just over a century ago; setting out how to use what we’ve since began calling media to push political change. Not long after, NYT correspondent Walter Duranty pushed the paper’s political agenda by suppressing abuses and passing on state Soviet propaganda under Stalin. Among many others, Edward Bernayse used the Lippmann’s convergence of psychology, advertising, and propaganda to push intelligence, commercial interest, and political change in the Americas and Carribean. Walter Winchell used radio and press to influence public opinion using gossip, smears, inuendo alternating with puff pieces and hype — all at the behest of WABC and the Hearst (Remember the Maine) newspapers.
Journalism has always been distinct from straight reporting. The public only gets unbiased reportage as an exception, either by accident or when the publisher happens just not to be paying attention.
As for the Quinault, I’m wondering how any of their ancestors survived the 1700 event. Did any of those survivors blame the tsunami on Spain or Russia?
Thanks, DK. For the Quinault in historical times, Taholah was only occupied during part of the year as a fishing village.
And as to the antiquity of bad journalism, as Mark Twain explained,
Regards,
w.
Thanks for the information. I suspect the 1700 was devastating to all coastal populations in the area. It is a wonder that there were any survivors.
I especially enjoy Twain’s comments and stories from all his years in newspapers and magazines. While mostly told as self-deprecating humor, I believe his descriptions of reporting from the Civil War era to 1900 are accurate for the entire field of “journalism” during that time. It is interesting that some of his greatest fiction, parables aimed toward social tolerance and gentle good humor, are now censored.
Good comment! As you note, the media have been angling for expanding government since the Spanish American War.
Same process and vulnerability to Tsunami down here on SW coast of the North Island of NZ. Slow slip events punctuated by seismic uplift provide opportunities to cherry pick out accelerating SLR, while the Tsunami risk from a SI alpine fault movement awaits.
Yes, the Alpine Fault on the South Island of New Zealand is very similar in size and danger to the San Andreas and its colleagues. Also overdue for the big one. Only difference is we don’t have mega cities along its track. It did however give us the Southern Alps with our highest mountain, Mt. Cook, which is a bonus.
You carefully ignore Wellington which is also a little overdue for the big one.
The hills will slide into the valleys if its a 9 and the population is expecting a downward revision of 22,000 and no occupation of the city for close to a decade.
When Christchurch had their modest but tragic earthquake I discovered what stops reinstatement and that is aftershocks.
If you get a 9 the aftershocks will take two years to settle to 5’s
While we’re at it…Let’s not forget the upcoming basaltic volcano in Auckland, our largest city! Or how about a tsunami from the Hikurangi Trench?
For better or worse we live in exciting places / times!
But you are ignoring the excitement of impending SLR in 100 years ….
Look up the pink and white terraces in New Zealand. A volcanic eruption in 1886 either buried them, destroyed them, or created a lake that submerged them. The lake is there and in 2011 terrace type formations were discovered in it but there’s controversy over whether or not they’re the remains of the P&W terraces or older formations uncovered by the 1886 eruption.
The world’s best surveyors and map-makers *didn’t* visit the area prior to the eruption so the maps, sketches and drawings are difficult to fit to what topography is still close to pre-eruption time. The best resources are the monochrome photographs of the terraces.
If only some surveyors of the time with the skills to make surveys accurate to inches over hundreds of miles had gone there to map the area.
Very nice Willis.
I presume that the good people of Taholah are hoping that other peoples’ money will pay for the move. Climate Change!
Willis, Actually, things are a bit worse than you’ve depicted. What’s happening is that North America is creeping west over the Pacific plate. But a large portion of the area offshore is locked in place by friction between the Pacific Plate and the overriding North American Plate. Stresses are building. So far, exactly as you’ve depicted it.
But East of the “locked” area, North America is still inching Westwards. That means that there’s a substantial volume of rock being pushed Westward into the area from the East. It can’t go further West until the fault slips. So the only direction the rock can go until then is up. So the coast is rising a bit. That’s why Sea level looks to be stable/falling.
So what happens when the fault slips as it surely will eventually? What happens is all that intruded rock fairly quickly moves down and West. The coastline drops a bit. How much is a bit? My impression is that in the past, “a bit” has typically been a meter or two (relative to its elevation prior to the quake.
I did look for a reference that addresses the situation. I came up with https://www.pnsn.org/outreach/earthquakesources/csz/landlevelchange which describes the process. But sadly it doesn’t really address how much subsidence is likely and over what time span.
Getting technical, one should mention the rotation about a location near Pendelton, OR.
GSOC (pinterest.com)
If the big one does happen, it’s very possible the Seattle Times will be under water as well. Wouldn’t that be ironic?
It appears Taholah is about 20 miles from the first set of foothills to the east as the crow flies with no real direct roadway to get there. I’m assuming the tsunami evacuation route is to the north across the bridge, but if it’s the really big one I’m not sure that area gives them enough elevation. Plus there is going to be a lot of people trying to get across the bridge at once which means real chaos. Maybe Plan C is an ark.
@rbabcock: Possibly not as bad as one would think. Checking googlemaps and conjuring up a real topo map, the town itself is in fact flat and low. Don’t want to be there if a tsunami hits. But there’s an elevated area with a hospital, some housing and some other infrastructure about a km to the South. How elevated? Around 30 meters give or take. By way of comparison, the tsunami that topped the 5.7m seawall at Fukushima daiichi was about 15m high. Hopefully, there’s a tsunami warning siren in Taholah and the folks there have been told repeatedly, “if you hear the siren, forget what you’re doing and run, do not walk, toward the SouthEast”.
True, don, and that’s exactly where they are planning to relocate to.
w.
This simulation put out by Washington state government says exactly that.. run, don’t walk. Although there will be a whole lot of shaking going on when the big one hits before you can even start running. Looks like 20 minutes is all you have to get where you want to be. https://www.dnr.wa.gov/programs-and-services/geology/geologic-hazards/tsunamis#tsunami-simulation-videos
A tsunami evacuation tower would solve the problem for a lot less than moving the village: https://thecooler.blog/blog/survival-of-the-funded
La Push, up the coast, is also moving, due to potential tsunami. The Coast Guard Station and beach attractions remain near the water, but the school and residences have moved upland.
“Media are sheep”
I disagree. They are active propagandists.
Nicely done, Sir.
One of the area’s media must have run such a story as the Seattle times, maybe a year or 18 months ago. Cliff Mass had a post.
We in Washington State that are aware of our environment always suggest a certain publication by Brian Atwater. First published in 2005, I think. If given the opportunity get to one of Brian’s presentations.
“The orphan tsunami of 1700—Japanese clues to a parent earthquake in North America”
https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/pp1707
I have worked in a business partnership with the Quinault Nation since 1988. They were trying to get financial assistance from the federal government way back then to move the village because of tsunami risk. They finally got the money, just had to change the official ‘reason’ for the move. It’s quite shocking to continually see these false stories in the media. Way to go Willis. You nailed this one