I recall at university we were shown a [spurious] graph from the 1930s that showed a clear correlation between the increase in the number of radio licences and diagnoses of mental illness.
The point of it was to show just how daft correlation claims can be. I doubt they still teach that.
Attribution science is magic. The World Weather Attribution group recently predicted that every 5 years the UK will experience extreme rainfall that is 20% wetter than we are used to!
My first statistics prof. used the example of the population of London and the annual count of swans on the Themes. Seems over many years there was a very strong correlation. When concern grew about serious overpopulation in London a mass slaughter of swans was proposed. Not sure of that was before or after Johnathan Swift’s “Modest Proposal”.
My favorite technical paper emphasizing that correlation does not necessarily equate to causation:
“Extraterrestrial Forcing of Surface Temperature and Climate Change: A Parody”,
Jamal Munshi, Sonoma State University, posted 21 Mar 2018, last revised: 26 Mar 2018; (abstract and free download available at https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3144908 )
There has been an increase in UAP sightings in recent years matching the increase in climate nuttiness. I’m sure the UAPs are planting chips in the brains of many “climate scientists”. Nothing else could explain their craziness. It’s all part of a plan to deindustrialize the planet- making it easier to enslave the human race. 🙂
Great observation! OTOH, regarding your last sentence, perhaps Doug Adams had it right all along and we’re just witnessing the equivalent of surveyors for the Vogon constructor fleet.
… The world has already warmed by 1.3 C and the NBER authors suggest global GDP per capita would be 37% higher right now had we listened to the scientists in the 1970s and avoided that warming.
In the 1970’s when the scientists were predicting an impending, unstoppable ice age?
I’m over 70. I remember reading https://www.sciencenews.org/archive/climate-change-chilling-possibilities when it came in my mailbox. The late 1970s storms supported the concern, but that faded quickly when the first big (big? I can’t find it online) paper introducing the Keeling curve came out a few years later.
Their were two “Blizzards of ’78”. One hit the Midwest. Hard. A week or two later another hit the Northeast.
Did Man’s CO2 prevent the “New Ice Age”?
😎
PS I was in the middle of the one that hit the Midwest. And, if I recall correctly, Rick Werme was in the one that hit the Northeast.
I’d rather have a “Heat Wave” any day.
Indeed. I’d rather have a blizzard than a heat wave (my Swedish genes hate heat and humidity).
My 1978 story is at https://wermenh.com/blizz78.html . It has a link to an addendum page that has a little about the midwest blizzard.
This video is a very good summary of those years and mentions the 100+ temperatures and all time record highs in Massachusetts in 1977. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lMcWD3EHqM
😎
The Midwest “The Great blizzard of ’78” set the record low barometric pressure for Ohio. (https://www.weather.gov/iln/19780126)
But comparing the two separate blizzards, well, if the wind-chill was -50 in one or -45 in the other, what difference does it make?
They each earned a name because of what they did. In 1978 the US had two memorable blizzards.
I find it odd that The Weather Channel gives a name to every winter storm front that passes through but not actual blizzards?
“Citing evidence drawn from geology, astronomy, biology, and meteorology, the noted scientist argues that the conditions for inducing an ice age may develop within a decade’s time and outlines necessary precautions to avert this catastrophe”
Repeating an inconvenient truth item from one of my prior WUWT guest posts, the concern about an imminent ice age was so prevalent in the ’70s, even the TV sitcom “Barney Miller” had an episode in 1977 in which the brainy detective character explains the effects of killer cooling.
Quote from ‘The Complete Ice Age’ Edited by Brian Fagan, Thames & Hudson 2009 p209/210
“As Lowelle Ponte (1976) summarized
Since the 1940s the northern half of our planet has been cooling rapidly. Already the effect in the United States is the same as if every city had been picked up by giant hands and set down more than 100 miles closer to the North Pole. If the cooling continues, warned the National Academy of Sciences in 1975, we could possibly witness the beginning of the next great ice age”
My son was born in 1976 and was about 19” long. Today he is about 6’6”. In that time the temperature is said to have increased. So the temperature increase was caused by the son.
GaryD
May 31, 2024 10:13 am
With all the hot air behind a lot of power point presentations, this could well be true.
As reasonable a cause as several proposed.
Then there’s this classic PowerPoint example based on the Gettysburg Address. Slide 5 is my favorite.
https://norvig.com/Gettysburg/
Remember – just because Honest Abe is mentioned on the web, that doesn’t make it true.
http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
I recall at university we were shown a [spurious] graph from the 1930s that showed a clear correlation between the increase in the number of radio licences and diagnoses of mental illness.
The point of it was to show just how daft correlation claims can be. I doubt they still teach that.
Attribution science sounds so much better than spurious correlation.
Attribution science is magic. The World Weather Attribution group recently predicted that every 5 years the UK will experience extreme rainfall that is 20% wetter than we are used to!
Roll the bones
Read the entrails. Sacrifice the virgins (preferably the XR virgins).
My first statistics prof. used the example of the population of London and the annual count of swans on the Themes. Seems over many years there was a very strong correlation. When concern grew about serious overpopulation in London a mass slaughter of swans was proposed. Not sure of that was before or after Johnathan Swift’s “Modest Proposal”.
I’m sure Microsoft knew. Here come the lawsuits.
My favorite technical paper emphasizing that correlation does not necessarily equate to causation:
“Extraterrestrial Forcing of Surface Temperature and Climate Change: A Parody”,
Jamal Munshi, Sonoma State University, posted 21 Mar 2018, last revised: 26 Mar 2018;
(abstract and free download available at https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3144908 )
There has been an increase in UAP sightings in recent years matching the increase in climate nuttiness. I’m sure the UAPs are planting chips in the brains of many “climate scientists”. Nothing else could explain their craziness. It’s all part of a plan to deindustrialize the planet- making it easier to enslave the human race. 🙂
Great observation! OTOH, regarding your last sentence, perhaps Doug Adams had it right all along and we’re just witnessing the equivalent of surveyors for the Vogon constructor fleet.
“Oh Furtled Gruntbuggly…”
This isn’t so much a story tip as a link to madness, but… https://www.japantimes.co.jp/commentary/2024/05/31/world/215-trillion-save-planet/
There are days when I think Lovecraft wasn’t writing fiction when he came up with Cthulhu.
In the 1970’s when the scientists were predicting an impending, unstoppable ice age?
https://skepticalscience.com/ice-age-predictions-in-1970s.htm
Are you aged over 60? Do you remember?
I’m over 70. I remember reading https://www.sciencenews.org/archive/climate-change-chilling-possibilities when it came in my mailbox. The late 1970s storms supported the concern, but that faded quickly when the first big (big? I can’t find it online) paper introducing the Keeling curve came out a few years later.
Their were two “Blizzards of ’78”. One hit the Midwest. Hard. A week or two later another hit the Northeast.
Did Man’s CO2 prevent the “New Ice Age”?
😎
PS I was in the middle of the one that hit the Midwest. And, if I recall correctly, Rick Werme was in the one that hit the Northeast.
I’d rather have a “Heat Wave” any day.
Indeed. I’d rather have a blizzard than a heat wave (my Swedish genes hate heat and humidity).
My 1978 story is at https://wermenh.com/blizz78.html . It has a link to an addendum page that has a little about the midwest blizzard.
This video is a very good summary of those years and mentions the 100+ temperatures and all time record highs in Massachusetts in 1977. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lMcWD3EHqM
Extreme weather? We have it easy these days!
😎
The Midwest “The Great blizzard of ’78” set the record low barometric pressure for Ohio. (https://www.weather.gov/iln/19780126)
But comparing the two separate blizzards, well, if the wind-chill was -50 in one or -45 in the other, what difference does it make?
They each earned a name because of what they did. In 1978 the US had two memorable blizzards.
I find it odd that The Weather Channel gives a name to every winter storm front that passes through but not actual blizzards?
Like most cagw’ers, Luser only knows what he’s told to know.
I’m over 70 and remember those predictions. I also remember reading Fred Hoyle’s 1981 book Ice: https://www.amazon.com/Ice-Ultimate-Catastrophe-Fred-Hoyle/dp/0826400647
“Citing evidence drawn from geology, astronomy, biology, and meteorology, the noted scientist argues that the conditions for inducing an ice age may develop within a decade’s time and outlines necessary precautions to avert this catastrophe”
https://realclimate.science/2013/05/21/the-1970s-ice-age-scare/#gsc.tab=0
Read it and weep.
Luser has proclaimed in the past that he only reads things approved by those he considers to be experts.
Source?
The source is you.
You should get some realscience, not the pap from the SkS con site.
1970s Global Cooling Scare | Real Climate Science
Around 1976 -1980 was the coldest period since the significantly warmer 1940.
A period of extreme high Arctic sea ice.
There was cooling all around the globe leading up to this period.
SkepticalScience is neither.
Nothing but another propaganda site run by a couple of the biggest global warming nutters out there.
Repeating an inconvenient truth item from one of my prior WUWT guest posts, the concern about an imminent ice age was so prevalent in the ’70s, even the TV sitcom “Barney Miller” had an episode in 1977 in which the brainy detective character explains the effects of killer cooling.
Quote from ‘The Complete Ice Age’ Edited by Brian Fagan, Thames & Hudson 2009 p209/210
“As Lowelle Ponte (1976) summarized
Since the 1940s the northern half of our planet has been cooling rapidly. Already the effect in the United States is the same as if every city had been picked up by giant hands and set down more than 100 miles closer to the North Pole. If the cooling continues, warned the National Academy of Sciences in 1975, we could possibly witness the beginning of the next great ice age”
My son was born in 1976 and was about 19” long. Today he is about 6’6”. In that time the temperature is said to have increased. So the temperature increase was caused by the son.
With all the hot air behind a lot of power point presentations, this could well be true.
A collection of spurious correlations.
It has to be power points.