Hurricane Season 2024 officially kicks off Saturday, June 1 and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts a more-active-than-normal season in the Atlantic. The agency is “85% certain” that we’ll have 17-25 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes, and 4-7 major hurricanes this year.
Episode #112 of The Climate Realism Show will feature two of America’s best hurricane experts — meteorologists Joe Bastardi and Stanley Goldenberg — to talk about these predictions, and what it will mean for the East and Gulf coasts of the United States.
Tune for our live-stream of the show at 1 p.m. ET (noon CT) to listen to these experts, and leave your own questions for them in the chat. The Climate Realism Show Host Anthony Watts and regular panelists H. Sterling Burnett and Linnea Lueken will also cover, as usual, the Crazy Climate News of the week.
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Didn’t they predict an increase in hurricane numbers and intensity around 2009 and for the next 8 years none above 2 materialized?
It was Al Gore predicting 2005 would be the worst hurricane season on record … which saw the advent of a 12 year hurricane drought.
Year Tropical Storms Hurricanes Major Hurricanes
2005 28 15 7
“….around 2009 and for the next 8 years none above 2 materialized?”
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/AtlanticStormTotalsTable.pdf
Year Tropical Storms Hurricanes Major Hurricanes
2009 9 3 2
2011 19 7 4
2010 19 12 5
2012 19 10 2
2013 14 2 0
2014 8 6 2
2015 11 4 2
2016 15 7 4
2017 17 10 6
2018 15 8 2
Off topic but. Why are ice core graphs not emailed to every e-mail address in the world?
Gaza pier precedent
“predicts a more-active-than-
normalaverage season in the Atlantic”fixed it- gotta stop saying “normal” since the implication is that if it’s anything else, then that’s abnormal and it plays into the hands of the climate whack jobs
The biggest problem is that when it comes to weather, we really don’t know what “normal” is.
Beyond that, are we talking about normal for an El Nino or La Nina? Not to mention the current state of any of the other dozen or so cycles that impact weather.
Just like the economist at Zero Hedge … correctly predicted 285 of the last 3 economic crashes.
Environmentalists correctly predicted 78 of the last ZERO Malthusian Disasters.
I think I heard Joe mention that Arthur Viterito thinks sub-ocean seismic activity seems to have dropped considerably.
Let’s see what happens to the atmospheric temperature over the next couple of years.
ps, last paper I have from Arthur V is from 2016.. Has there been any updates ?
Following this comment I posted under the Atlantic hurricane season article 8 days ago I spent some of my “copious spare time” looking at different ways of graphing the NOAA “Outlook” numbers against the actual outcomes.
The results didn’t really seem suitable for the other Atlantic hurricane season post between that one and this one … and then around the 55:45 mark in the above video the question “Has anyone graphed … ?” was read out.
While probably not as good as the outputs of whatever “European agency” Joe Bastardi was talking about in his response, maybe some others will find my efforts “interesting / useful”.
Note that the high activity years of “2005, 2017 and 2020” mentioned by Joe clearly “jump out” in the graph attached below.
Years under-predicted by NOAA : 2001, 2004, 2005, 2017 and 2020
Years over-predicted : 2006, 2007 and 2013 (the least active year of the 21st century)
Follow-up.
Including the “Named storms” numbers makes the graph a bit “crowded” for my taste, but some people may prefer the attached alternative.
Post for anyone whose OCD pattern happens to overlap with mine.
NOAA “May Outlook” press releases, from 1999 to 2024, available from this link :
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane-archive.shtml
HURDAT data for what actually occurred, from 1851 to 2023, from this other link :
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/comparison_table.html
_ _ _ _ _ _
The following “semicolon separated variable” file is the result of a lot of manual “Copy and Paste” and “Search and Replace” operations, it would be wise to check for “switched lines” and/or “off-by-one” (and/or ???) errors before using it …
;Named;;Hurr;;Major;;;;Actual
Year;Min;Max;Min;Max;Min;Max;;Named;Hurr;Major
2001;8;11;5;7;2;3;;15;9;4
2002;9;13;6;8;2;3;;12;4;2
2003;11;15;6;9;2;4;;16;7;3
2004;12;15;6;8;2;4;;15;9;6
2005;12;15;7;9;3;5;;28;15;7
2006;13;16;8;10;4;6;;10;5;2
2007;13;17;7;10;3;5;;15;6;2
2008;12;16;6;9;2;5;;16;8;5
2009;9;14;4;7;1;3;;9;3;2
2010;14;23;8;14;3;7;;19;12;5
2011;12;18;6;10;3;6;;19;7;4
2012;9;15;4;8;1;3;;19;10;2
2013;13;20;7;11;3;6;;14;2;0
2014;8;13;3;6;1;2;;8;6;2
2015;6;11;3;6;0;2;;11;4;2
2016;10;16;4;8;1;4;;15;7;4
2017;11;17;5;9;2;4;;17;10;6
2018;10;16;5;9;1;4;;15;8;2
2019;9;15;4;8;2;4;;18;6;3
2020;13;19;6;10;3;6;;30;14;7
2021;13;20;6;10;3;5;;21;7;4
2022;14;21;6;10;3;6;;14;8;2
2023;12;17;5;9;1;4;;20;7;3
2024;17;25;8;13;4;7