The Week That Was: 2024-02-17 (February 17, 2024)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “There is one feature I notice that is generally missing in cargo cult science [pseudoscience]…It’s a kind of scientific integrity, a principle of scientific thought that corresponds to a kind of utter honesty — a kind of leaning over backwards.”– Richard Feynman
Number of the Week: 63 hours, 45 minutes
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: This TWTW focuses on the above quote from Richard Feynman to distinguish between cargo cult [pseudoscience, not realistic to nature] and the integrity and utter honesty needed for realistic physical science. Howard Hayden discusses the failure of the IPCC to check its findings against the Stefan-Boltzmann law. A group of scientists, largely from China, present evidence that, in part, the warming for the past thirty-five years may have come from a changing of Earth’s albedo. Ole Humlum presents the state of the climate until January 2024. The CO2 Coalition presents a climate report for Wyoming, emphasizing the benefits of increasing CO2. And Stephen McIntyre presents some glaring deficiencies in the IPCC process leading to its Assessment Reports.
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Check Your Work: Using the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6, 2021) of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), AMO physicist Howard Hayden demonstrates that AR6 is inconsistent with itself and with the Stefan-Boltzmann law which specifies the amount of radiation emitted per unit of time from a specific area of a blackbody. Just as light entering a cavity through a hole is entirely absorbed, a blackbody is an idealized physical body that absorbs all electromagnetic radiation hitting it.
A perfect absorber is also a perfect emitter. For example, a hole in a very hot ceramic tube emits visible light in a full-color spectrum that is determined entirely by the temperature, not the characteristics of the chemicals in the ceramic. The temperatures of stars are determined by their blackbody spectrum. Cooler bodies, including such things as a block of dry ice, also emit a blackbody spectrum. In all cases, the amount of radiant energy emitted is proportional to the fourth power of its temperature in Kelvin. The Stefan-Boltzmann law is embodied in the operation of thermal cameras and ear thermometers.
Yet, the authors of AR6 ignore the need to check its work against this fundamental law of physics and so do the authors of the US Fifth National Climate Assessment (2023). In the February Energy Advocate Hayden writes:
“Sometimes it is a good idea to refer to a truth that everybody can understand regardless of their scientific background. There are infrared thermometers and thermal imaging cameras on the market, and they must rely on some known relationship between temperature and the amount of IR that bodies emit. That relationship is, of course, embodied in a mathematical formula, and even if you don’t know what the formula is, you can easily recognize that such a formula exists. It even has a name: the Stefan-Boltzmann law.
Now, suppose that you were a climate scientist whose job it is to model the climate when the atmosphere has more CO2 because of humanity’s combustion of coal, oil, and natural gas. Your computer model predicts some temperature rise for some given scenario.
You then publish your results. What did you miss?
The Stefan-Boltzmann (S-B) law has a trivial result for small increases in the temperature of the earth. For each 1ºC temperature rise, the surface must emit about 5.5 W/m2 more heat.
If you did not apply that Stefan-Boltzmann law to your result, you were negligent. A science journal refereed or not, that published the model result without that calculation is also negligent. Suffice it to say that the IPCC has never—repeat NEVER—applied the S-B law to their predicted temperatures.
It is a very simple matter to append an IR emission scale to every temperature scale, as shown in Figure 1 [Not shown here, see reference in Challenging the Orthodoxy]. However, you will search in vain for such a scale, as the IPCC—and all of its references—have failed to apply the S-B law.
Yet, everything we read about the ‘climate crisis’, ‘climate agreements,’ ‘climate legislation,’ ‘climate goals,’ ‘keeping the temperature rise below 1.5ºC,’ ‘climate footprint,’ and so forth is based on climate models, not a single one of which can pass that freshman physics test.” [Boldface added]
The figure shows IPCC’s modeled temperature increase (referenced to the 1850-1900 period) from the present to 2100, based on one of five CO2 emission scenarios, this one predicting a total radiative forcing from CO2, all other greenhouse gases, and changes in albedo to be 7.0 watts per square meter by circa 2080-2100. Hayden added a scale showing the increase in IR alongside the temperature scale. IPCC’s predicted temperature rise by the end of the century is about 3.6ºC. The Stefan-Boltzmann law says that the surface must then radiate 20 watts per square meter more. How can a total radiative forcing of 7 watts per square meter keep 20 watts per square meter from escaping to space?
Both upward and downward infrared radiation can be measured by pyrgeometers mounted 1.5 to 2 meters (4.5 to 6 feet) above the ground. These measurements vary seasonally and by year. The example shown by the Japan Meteorological Agency at Tsukuba, Japan, the home of Tsukuba Science City and the headquarters of the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency shows this variation and a modest increase in downward infrared radiation but not an appreciable increase in upward infrared radiation indicating a warming.
Hayden has shown a significant deficiency in the work of the IPCC and subsequently the work of the 14 US government entities that approved the Fifth National Climate Assessment, including NOAA, NASA, and the National Science Foundation. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy and https://www.jma-net.go.jp/kousou/obs_third_div/rad/rad_ir-e.html#:~:text=A%20pyrgeometer%20is%20used%20to,high%20accuracy%20regardless%20of%20wavelengths.
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Changing Albedo? As shown by Howard Hayden in his essays on Basic Climate Physics, calculations of Earth’s planetary heat balance, and, as for all planets, depend on its albedo, the extent to which cloud cover and surfaces reflect the intensity of sunlight. The greater the albedo the lower the absorption of sunlight, and the lower the albedo the higher the absorption of sunlight, the warmer the surface. Kenneth Richard brings attention to a study published by Remote Sensing of Environment. The study has 23 authors with lead authors from The University of Hong Kong and the Chinese Academy of Sciences as well as some Western universities. The paper is titled: “Satellite observations reveal a decreasing albedo trend of global cities over the past 35 years.” The abstract states:
“Urban surface albedo is an essential biophysical variable in the surface energy balance across all scales, from micro-scale (materials) to the globe, changing with land covers and three-dimensional structures over urban areas. Urban albedos are dynamic over space and time but have not yet been quantified over global scales due to the lack of high-resolution albedo datasets. Here, we combined the direct estimation approach and Landsat surface reflectance product to generate a 30-m-resolution annual surface albedo dataset for 3037 large cities (area > 50 km 2) worldwide for the period from 1986 to 2020, allowing spatial patterns and long-term temporal trends to be explored with possible causal drivers, and quantification of the surface radiative forcing from these albedo changes. Evaluation of this new albedo dataset using global urban flux tower-based measurements demonstrates its high accuracy with an overall bias and root-mean-square-error (RMSE) of 0.005 and 0.025, respectively. Analysis of the dataset reveals an overall decreasing trend of albedo during the 35-year evaluation 2 period (1986-2020), which is robust accounting for uncertainties from training sample representativeness, Landsat data uncertainty, seasonal variation, and snow-cover contamination. Our results reveal that urban greening (measured by the positive Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) trend) can well explain the total variances in the albedo trend for the 35-year period through two different pathways of tree planting and urban warming-enhanced vegetation growth. The decrease in urban albedo caused a warming effect indicated by positive surface radiative forcing, with a global city-level average surface radiative forcing of 2.76 W⋅m − 2. These findings enhance our understanding of urbanization’s impacts on albedo-related biophysical processes and can provide information to quantify urban surface radiation energy and design effective mitigation strategies to reduce urban warming.” [Boldface added]
The paper contradicts, at least in part, the IPCC assumption that the warming over the thirty-five-year period was caused by carbon dioxide emissions. Although much of the basic scientific work of the IPCC is good, this is one of many problems with the final work of the IPCC and its followers. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and https://www.sepp.org/science_papers.cfm?whichyear=2022
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State of the Climate: Ole Humlum is a Danish professor emeritus of Physical Geography at the University of Oslo now based in archipelago of Svalbard, Norway. His monthly summary of climate is more complete than NOAA’s State of the Climate Report, because the NOAA’s politicized reports ignore atmospheric temperature trends, the most comprehensive global temperature trends existing. Humlum reports atmospheric trends from both the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) and from Remote Sensing Systems (RSS). In “Short Summary of Observations Until January 2024.” Humlum reported:
“1: Observed average global air temperature change last 40 years is about +0.18°C per decade. [With January data in UAH increased its change rate to +0.15°C per decade.] If this change rate remains stable, additional average global air temperature increase by year 2100 will be about +1.3°C. However, part of the apparent temperature increase reported is due to administrative changes, and the real future increase may therefore be smaller.
2: Tide gauges along coasts indicate a typical global sea level increase of about 1-2 mm/yr. Coastal sea level change rate last 100 year has essentially been stable, but with periodic variations. If change rate remains stable, global sea level at coasts will typically increase 8-16 cm by year 2100, although many locations in regions affected by glaciation 20,000 years ago will experience a relative sea level drop.
3: Since 2004 the global oceans above 1900 m depth on average have warmed about 0.07°C. The maximum warming (about 0.2°C, 0-100 m depth) mainly affects oceans near Equator, where the incoming solar radiation is at maximum.
4: Sources and sinks for CO2 are many. However, changes in atmospheric CO2 follow changes in global air temperature, and changes in global air temperature follow changes in ocean surface temperature.
5: There is no perceptible effect on atmospheric CO2 due to the COVID-related drop in GHG emissions 2020-2021, demonstrating that natural sinks and sources for atmospheric CO2 far outweigh human contributions. Therefore, any future reductions in the use of fossil fuels are unlikely to have any significant effect on the amount of atmospheric CO2.” See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Wyoming Climate Report: The CO2 Coalition has prepared three state and regional (US) reports on the effect of changing climate: 1) Pennsylvania; 2) Virginia; and 3) American Midwest. The CO2 Coalition has now issued one for Wyoming, by far the largest coal producing state in the US with over 40% of US production in 2022 and the most severely hurt by the Net Zero movement. Its governor has claimed there will be CO2-driven climate disasters and has advocated carbon capture technology to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. Apparently, he is blissfully unaware of the importance of photosynthesis for all complex life on Earth.
The CO2 Coalition report provides an in-depth analysis of the issues and asked for the opportunity to debate the issues in a neutral location with a neutral moderator. Instead, the state Senate heard a presentation from a panel of the CO2 Coalition. According to reports:
“‘Much of the world already knows this. India, over a billion people, they are not really making a single effort to cut back on CO2,’ [William] Happer said. ‘They are building coal plants as fast as they can. China is doing the same thing, again, with nearly a billion people. [Both China and India have an estimate population of about 1.4 billion.]
‘What the state of Wyoming does won’t make the slightest difference, and we shouldn’t worry about it anyway,’ Happer said. ‘China isn’t worried about it; they know perfectly well this isn’t going to damage the planet.’”
The 40-page report concludes:
“The recent proposal by Wyoming Governor Mark Gordon to use “carbon capture” to achieve what he terms “negative net zero” (Gordon 2021) is based on a flawed theory that increasing CO2 in the atmosphere is leading to harmful effects on Wyoming’s environment and its people. Within this report, we have documented that modest warming and increasing carbon dioxide are clearly beneficial for the Cowboy State’s ecosystems and citizenry.
The data tell us the following:
• Current levels of carbon dioxide are at or near historically low concentrations.
• Adjustments to historic temperature records have artificially amplified modern warming.
• Wyoming temperatures have increased a modest 1.2°F (0.7°C) since 1895.
• Heat waves peaked in the 1930s and have been in slight decline since that period.
• Nighttime low temperatures have increased, lengthening growing seasons.
• Precipitation data, while varying greatly from year-to-year, show no increasing or decreasing trend.
• Droughts are not increasing in Wyoming.
• Severe weather and natural disasters are declining.
• Agricultural production, globally and in Wyoming, is thriving due to modest warming and more CO2.
• Vegetation in Wyoming and around the world is increasing.
• Greenhouse-induced warming that would be averted (< 0.003°F) by eliminating Wyoming’s CO2 emissions would be too small to measure and achieved, if at all, at enormous cost.
• Models used to project future temperatures significantly overpredict the amount of warming in
coming decades.”
The second appendix to the report is titled “Temperature Adjustments and Fabrication of Data,” It begins with:
“The temperature data included in this report are from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) U.S. Historical Climatology Network. There are three issues intrinsic to the data that have served to artificially exaggerate warming for over 100-plus years.
• Urban heat island effect that raises temperatures
• Adjustments to measured historic temperatures
• Fabricated data for stations that no longer exist or are no longer reporting.”
Then, each of these efforts to exaggerate warming is discussed. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Questioning the Orthodoxy.
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Picking Cherries: Without question the decision in Mann v. Steyn was disappointing and in the view of TWTW, Steyn should have engaged a trial attorney. Just like England, which recognizes the difference between Barristers (trial attorneys) and Solicitors (general practitioners), in the US trial attorneys are a separate specialty with specialized knowledge. Last week, TWTW reported on the expert testimony posted by Judith Curry, who was not called upon to testify. But Stephen McIntyre, who was also prepared, and who could have presented the most devastating expert testimony, was not called upon.
As an expert reviewer of the IPCC report (AR3, 2001), McIntyre tried to get the “other 26.” Jocoby and d’Arrigo who were part of the “hockey team” reconstructed North American temperatures from 36 tree ring studies but used only 10 of them considered most influential, which were archived. McIntyre spent years trying to find out what happened to the “other 26” and what did they indicate? As McIntyre wrote in December:
“We’ve long discussed the bias imparted by ex post selection of data depending on whether it went up in the 20th century. Likening such after-the-fact selection to a drug study carried out only on survivors.
The Jacoby and d’Arrigo 1989 network was a classic example: the original article reported that they had sampled 36 northern treeline sites, from which they selected 10 with the “best record…of temperature-influenced tree growth”, to which they added a chronology of Gaspe cedars that was far south of the northern treeline at low altitudes.”
Long quote omitted here. [links in the original are not given here but can be found on the link]
“In 2004 and 2005, I made a determined effort to obtain the measurement data for the 26 sites that weren’t included in the final calculation. Jacoby refused. I tried over and over to get this data but was never successful.
Gordon Jacoby died in October 2014. In June 2014, a few months prior to his death, the Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory unit of Columbia University (Jacoby’s employer) archived a large collection of tree ring data collected by Jacoby and associates. By then, it was 25 years since the publication of Jacoby and D’Arrigo 1989 and 8 years since publication of D’Arrigo et al 2006.
By then, the paleoclimate community had “moved on” to the seeming novelties of PAGES2K. A few Jacoby and d’Arrigo series re-appeared in PAGES2K. I wrote a couple of articles on these new Jacoby and d’Arrigo avatars: on their Central Northwest Territories (Canada) series in January 2016; and on their Gulf of Alaska series in February 2016. But the articles attracted little interest. Jacoby and D’Arrigo had successfully stonewalled availability of data until no one was interested any more. Not even me.
However, while recently refreshing myself on ancient MBH98 issues, I discovered something interesting: buried in the dozens of measurement data sets in the belated 2014 archive was one of the datasets that Jacoby had withheld back in 2004. (Thus far, I’ve only found one, but there may be others.) It was a northwest Alaska dataset collected in 1979 –. What did the withheld data show? Despite the passage of time, I was interested.”
McIntyre then discusses Jacoby’s refusal to provide the data and Rosanne D’Arrigo’s classic claim to a NAS panel that “you had to pick cherries if you want to make cherry pie.” McIntyre than states:
“D’Arrigo et al (2006) was relied upon by both NAS Panel and IPCC AR4, but, once again, D’Arrigo refused to provide measurement data – even when politely asked by Gerry North, chair of the NAS Panel.” [Boldface added]
McIntyre presents the measurement data from Sukak Peak, Alaska, in a graph [not shown here] and then writes:
First, the chronology (dark line) had elevated values in the AD 1100s; its 20th century values were unexceptional and declined through the 20th century, with closing values indistinguishable from long-term average. It definitely doesn’t tell the “climatic story” that Jacoby was trying to tell.
“Second, and this is a surprise (or maybe not), the core counts – shown in solid light grey in the above graphic – show that Sukak Peak had 10 cores by AD 1311 and was at 5 cores by AD 1104. In contrast, the entire Jacoby network incorporated into MBH98 had only one core (from Gaspe) prior to AD 1428 and none prior to AD 1404, In other words, although this had been withheld by Jacoby, replication at this site was better than at any other Jacoby and D’Arrigo site used in MBH98. It was not “lower quality” in any objective sense.
Although Sukak Peak data was still unarchived and unpublished in 2006, it was used in the D’Arrigo et al 2006 NW Alaska Composite dataset, the chronology of which reported high late 20th century values – the opposite to what is displayed in this component. The NWNA Alaska Composite also included subsets of Four Twelve, Arrigetch, Sheenjek (none of which show high late 20th century values) and a later dataset from Dalton Highway which I’m presently unfamiliar with. I will take a look at this dataset in a follow up post.
In closing, I had long presumed that data for the “other 26” Jacoby and D’Arrigo northern treeline sites had disappeared forever. But it turns out that data for one of the sites was archived in 2014 – 35 years after collection in 1979, 25 years after publication of Jacoby and D’Arrigo 1989 and a mere 16 years after publication of MBH98.
Plus, another 9 years before anyone noticed that Jacoby’s death-bed archive contained one of the long withheld “other 26” sites. A pleasant surprise, nonetheless. But definitely not a surprise to discover that the withheld data did not have a hockey stick shape.” [Boldface added]
That is the status of hockey-stick science and IPCC science, Omit that which contradicts your claims. It is what Feynman called cargo cult science, a pseudoscience without integrity or utter honesty. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Misleading Terms: Planning engineer Russ Schussler has two posts arguing that the term “renewable energy” should not be used in serious discussions or policy decisions. The only thing renewable about wind and solar is that they return after they fail. Repeated failure is not a desirable characteristic for an electrical grid serving a modern civilization. Failure cannot be predicted well in advance. The practice of lumping hydroelectric power with wind and solar only compounds the problems. See links under Seeking a Common Ground.
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Number of the Week: 63 hours, 45 minutes: California is one of the states in the running for bragging rights for the most “renewable” energy. The California ISO (CAISO) manages the flow of electricity for 80% of California and a small part of Nevada (parts of northern California, Los Angeles, and the Imperial Valley are served by other authorities). As of January 17, 2023, CAISO had 18,500 MW of installed solar, 8,100 MW of wind, 1,200 MW of small hydro, 1,600 MW of geothermal, and 800 MW for a total of 30,200 MW that it classified as Installed renewable resources. As of May 2023, the installed battery system can produce 5,000 MW for a little over three hours. [Battery “storage” involves two “capacities”: the charging/discharging “capacity” in MW and the “capacity” of energy storage in MWh. (Car batteries are characterized by the number of ampere-hours of a new, fully charged battery.) For example, a system might supply 5,000 MW for 12 minutes because it only stores 1,000 MWh, or 3 hours because it stores 15,000 MWh. Confusingly, CAISO calls the former “capacity” and the latter “duration.” In any case, the “duration” of CAISO’s 5,000 MW battery system is about 17,000 MWh.]
On February 5 and 6, “atmospheric rivers” hit Southern California. From 1600 hours on Feb 4 to 745 hours on Feb 7, 63 hours, 45 minutes. The output of all the renewables in CAISO did not meet the output of natural gas, except for a brief 20-minute period about noon on Feb 6. For much of the time, imports far exceed total renewables. California has the most expensive electricity costs of the 48 states. What are the costs of Net Zero? See http://www.caiso.com/todaysoutlook/pages/supply.aspx#section-current
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Censorship
NDP ‘anti-fossil fuel advertising’ draft legislation – worthy of both the 1956 Soviet RSFSR Criminal Code or the other end of the political spectrum
By Terry Etam, BOE Report, Feb 13, 2024
In Canada, NDP is New Democratic Party
Free speech is for losers
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 14, 2024
“Canadian New Democratic Party MP Charlie Angus, not a man noted for holding his tongue, has introduced C-372, the ‘Fossil Fuel Advertising Act’, that would make it illegal to make true statements about fossil fuels if they were positive.”
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer
The Role of Greenhouse Gases in Energy Transfer in the Earth’s Atmosphere
By W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Mar 3, 2023
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Screaming About Climate Disaster
By Howard Hayden Energy Advocate, February 2024
New Study Finds Global Cities Have Warmed Due To Rising Solar Surface Forcing Since 1986
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Feb 12, 2024
Link to paper: Satellite observations reveal a decreasing albedo trend of global cities over the past 35 years
By Shengbiao Wu, The University of Hong Kong, et al., 23 authors, Remote Sensing of Environment, February 2024
Tree Ring Truth: Late Scientist’s Data Found, Why Did He Hid It?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 6, 2024
Video, Explaining Gordon Jacoby’s data which Stephen McIntyre could not obtain until much later.
Links to posts by Stephen McIntyre, Climate Audit
Discovery of Data for One of the “Other 26” Jacoby Serie, Dec 2023
Four Twelve, Alaska: A Jacoby Series
Sheenjek, Alaska: A Jacoby-MBH Series
D’arrigo et al 2006: NWNA Alaska
Short Summary of Observations Until January 2024
By Ole Humlum, Climate4you, Feb 17, 2024
Full report: https://www.climate4you.com/Text/Climate4you_January_2024.pdf
The regular ‘Atlantic Circulation Collapse’ story
By David Whitehouse, Net Zero Watch, Feb 14, 2024
“I suspect that people are thinking about the wrong thing here. This is not about the North Atlantic Drift – the current that brings warm water to Northern Europe from the Gulf of Mexico. That is a consequence of the Earth’s rotation and the distribution of the continents and it’s not going to change as long as the Earth keeps turning. This story is about another.”
Wyoming and Climate Change: CO2 Should Be Celebrated, Not Captured
By Staff, CO2 Coalition, Feb 8, 2024
Full Report: Wyoming and Climate Change: CO2 Should Be Celebrated, Not Captured
By Frits Byron Soepyan, Gregory Wrightstone, William Happer, et al. CO2 Coalition, February 2024
Temperature Feedback Follies
By Chris Hall, WUWT, Feb 13, 2024
#ECS in the real world: Spencer and Christy 2023
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 14, 2024
Link to paper: Effective climate sensitivity distributions from a 1D model of global ocean and land temperature trends, 1970–2021
By Roy Spencer and John Christy, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Sep 16, 2023
Academics Blame Lower Trust In Scientists On Everything But Bad Scientists
By William Briggs, Via WUWT, Feb 15, 2024
Defending the Orthodoxy
Climate change is making it more dangerous for kids to play outside, report finds
By Saul Elbein, The Hill, Feb 12, 2024
Link to report: Atrocious Air
By Staff, 1 First Street, Feb 12, 2024
“Using the newly created First Street – Air Quality Model (FS-AQM), this report finds continued exposure as well as climate-related increases in poor air quality due to the growing incidence of wildfires, extreme heat events, and their negative interactions with other environmental and anthropogenic condition.”
[SEPP Comment; Warmth causes bad air quality?]
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Report warns migratory fish, mammals and birds at risk of extinction
By James Ashworth, Natural History Museum. Phys.org, Feb 12, 2024
Link to report: State of the World’s Migratory Species
By Staff, Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals, 2024
Climate change
The impact of climate change is already being felt by many migratory species, and the role of climate change as a direct threat to biodiversity is expected to increase considerably in the coming decades. In addition to increasing temperatures, climate change will result in changes in precipitation, extreme weather, sea level rise and ocean acidification, all of which have the potential to dramatically change habitats and their species composition. While some migratory species may be able to adapt to climatic changes, many will not be able to do so, particularly where its cascading effects could see the degradation and loss of key habitats and the collapse of food webs3. Importantly, climate change may also act as an amplifier of other threats, such as habitat loss, pollution, and overexploitation.
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Yes, Popular Mechanics, Scientists ‘Have Miscalculated Our Global Warming Timeline’
By Anthony Watts, Climate Realism, Feb 12, 2024
Link to article: Oops, Scientists May Have Miscalculated Our Global Warming Timeline
Clues have emerged that reveal a much hotter history than we thought.
By Darren Orf, Popular Mechanics, Feb 9, 2024
Link to paper: 300 years of sclerosponge thermometry shows global warming has exceeded 1.5 °C
By Malcolm T. McCulloch, et al. Nature Climate Change, Feb 5, 2024
[SEPP Comment: A bureaucratic invention, a warming of 1.5 °C means little during Icehouse Earth with severe glaciation periods of about 100,000 years interspaced with brief warm periods.]
300-year-old sponge suggests seas were warming long before coal power and cars were even invented
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Feb 15, 2024
“Absurdly, evangelistic headlines decreed the world was ‘hotter than we thought’, had breached 1.5C earlier than we thought and three-hundred-year-old sea sponges were telling us to hurry up and install solar panels.”
Cowen on ‘Fossil Future’: Expert Failure?
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Feb 15, 2024
“It was distributed on social media by the director of the U.S. Department of Energy’s loan programs office, Jigar Shah, described as “the man in charge of how the US spends $400bn to shift away from fossil fuels.’”
Climate Deniers In Wyoming
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Feb 15, 2024
Link to: State senators hear from climate change deniers
By Carrie Haderlie, Wyoming Tribune Eagle, Feb 13, 2024
The end is nigh/here/out there
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 14, 2024
The temperature jump over the past year was not CO2
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 14, 2024
Link to paper: The jump in global temperatures in September 2023 is extremely unlikely due to internal climate variability alone
By Mika Rantanen & Ari Laaksonen, Nature, Climate and Atmospheric Science, Feb 1, 2024
Abstract: “September 2023 was the warmest September on record globally by a record margin of 0.5 °C. Here we show that such a record-breaking margin is an extremely rare event in the latest generation of climate models, making it highly unlikely (p ~ 1%) that internal climate variability combined with the steady increase in greenhouse gas forcing could explain it. Our results call for further analysis of the impact of other external forcings on the global climate in 2023.”
Seeking a Common Ground
Why I am Leaving Academia
The pull and the push
By Roger Pielke, Jr. The Honest Broker, Feb 14, 2024
Time to Retire the Term “Renewable Energy” from Serious Discussions and Policy Directive: Part II
By Planning Engineer (Russ Schussler), Climate Etc. Feb 16, 2024
Time to retire the term ‘renewable energy’ from serious discussion and energy policy directives [Part I]
By Planning Engineer (Russ Schussler), Climate Etc. Feb 5, 2024
A bipartisan fiscal commission could help lawmakers address our looming debt issues
By Michael Murphy, The Hill, Feb 12, 2024
Link to CBO report: The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034
By Staff, Congressional Budget Office, Feb 7, 2024
Changing Weather
Why does El Nino Influence West Coast Weather?
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Feb 11, 2024
California Enjoys the Northwest’s Water
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Feb 16, 2024
“The current extended prediction of accumulated precipitation through April 1 by the European Center model suggests this pattern is not going away, with very wet conditions over California, but drier than normal in the Washington Cascades.”
Strong El Nino Conditions Prevails At The End Of January 2024 – However This El Nino Not Expected To Be As Strong As 1982-83 Or 1997-98 Or 2015-16 El Nino
By Ashok Patel, Gujaratweather.com, Feb 10, 2024
http://www.gujaratweather.com/wordpress/?p=30615
Weather Disaster Trends in Europe
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 13, 2024
EU Wildfire Trends 2023
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 15, 2023
“Protect Our Winters” (Snow a thing of the past?)
By Robert Bradley Jr, Master Resource, Feb 14, 2024
“Why just not say ‘we do not know’ about macro and micro weather–and put climate science in its place while doing so? False knowledge is worse than no knowledge when it comes to global warming, global climate change, or ‘global weirding.’”
Changing Seas
AMOC To Collapse Scam Is Back
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 10, 2024
Tipping Is Optional
By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, Feb 11, 2024
Cyclone Kirrily Smashed my Favorite Coral Reef
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Feb 17, 2024
New Study: Denmark Coast Has Been Expanding Seaward At A Rate Of +1.4 Meters Per Year Since 1900
By Kenneth richard, No Tricks Zone, Feb 15, 2024
Link to paper: Middle and Late Holocene relative sea level changes and coastal
development at Rugard, Denmark
By Marie Holst Riis, et al., Boreas, January 2024
Opening sentence of abstract: “Denmark has been subject to complex interactions of isostatic uplift and eustatic sea level changes since the last deglaciation.”
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Arctic “Just-So Stories”: Bad Science by Climate Alarmists
By Jim Steele, WUWT, Feb 14, 2024
“The Arctic Ocean was nick-named the ‘upside down Ocean’ by Fridtjof Nansen. Nansen was a famous Norwegian zoologists, oceanographer, and Arctic explorer as well as winner of the 1922 Nobel Peace Prize. During his failed expedition to reach the North Pole, his boat, the Fram, got frozen in Arctic sea ice but eventually was exported by Arctic currents, along with Arctic sea ice, into the Atlantic through what is now named the Fram Strait.”
Arctic Sea Ice Continues its Stonking Recovery
By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, Feb 8, 2024
Changing Earth
Assessing volcanic-induced climate forcing
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 14, 2024
From the CO2Science Archive:
Lowering Standards
The 50 PPM Rule For Data Tampering
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Feb 15, 2024
Video: https://realclimatescience.com/2024/02/the-50-ppm-rule-for-data-tampering-2/#gsc.tab=0
Text: https://realclimatescience.com/2024/02/the-50-ppm-rule-for-data-tampering/#gsc.tab=0
[SEPP Comment: CO2 forcing NOAA/NASA data tampering?]
Met Office Cannot Provide Evidence For “More Intense Storms” Claim
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 12, 2024
Calls for Met Office to retract false ‘more intense storms’ claim
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 13, 2024
Corrupting Uruguay
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Feb 14, 2024
Video: https://realclimatescience.com/2024/02/corrupting-uruguay-2/#gsc.tab=0
Text: https://realclimatescience.com/2024/02/corrupting-uruguay/#gsc.tab=0
“The long-term temperature record from Uruguay shows little warming but homogenizing in UHI infected data from Buenos Aires [Argentina], a strong warming trend is created.” [NOAA’s Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) data.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Secret Partnership Fueling Climate Hawk Journalism
By Caleb Howe, Real Clear Wire, Feb 12, 2024
Chile Forest Fires–Climate Change?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 15, 2024
“As noted, eucalyptus accounts for about a third of plantations. [a non-native species]
Is it any wonder these fires spread so rapidly nowadays.”
[SEPP Comment: The bark and oils of eucalyptus trees make them highly flammable.]
Wrong, The Hill, Climate Change Isn’t Making It Unsafe for Kids to Play Outside
By Linnea Lueken and H. Sterling Burnett, Climate Realism, Feb 14, 2024
BBC Asks “Are the politics of climate change going out of fashion?”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 11, 2024
AEP’s Green Juggernaut
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 14, 2024
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
No Climate Crisis for Thriving Honeybees
By Vijay Jayaraj, CO2 Coalition, Feb 10, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Bears, tigers, and now bees, oh my!]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
When polar bears die, they die of starvation: new Nature paper is propaganda, not news
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Feb 13, 2024
Link to paper: Polar bear energetic and behavioral strategies on land with implications for surviving the ice-free period
By Anthony M. Pagano, et al, Nature Communications, Feb 13, 2024
[SEPP Comment: The polar bear is a unique apex predator, no land competitors except stronger bears.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
British International “Good COP Bad COP” Children’s Climate Conference Sponsored by China
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 13, 2024
“’ Students from 23 schools around the world took part in the third Model United Nations Conference ‘Good COP Bad COP’, organized by British educational charity Engage with China, or EWC, on Feb 2.’”
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
WATCH: Climate Protesters Dump Powder on Constitution
By Charles Hilu, Washington Free Beacon, Feb 14, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Section 1666. Destruction Of Government Property — 18 U.S.C. § 1361: “The penalties for violations of this section are tied to the extent of the property damage. As amended on September 13, 1994, if the damage exceeds $100, the defendant is subject to a fine of up to $250,000, ten years imprisonment, or both…When property damage does not exceed $100, the offense is a misdemeanor punishable by a fine of up to $100,000, one year imprisonment, or both.]
EU Farmers Protest Green Policies’ Threat to Greenest Lands
By Vijay Jayaraj, Townhall, Feb 10, 2024
“Green” Activists Menace Humanity
By Vijay Jayaraj, WUWT, Feb 10, 2024
The backlash lashes on
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 14, 2024
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Navy could make climate change courses compulsory
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 15, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Back to the days of wooden ships and iron men?]
United Nations Foundation funding ‘Green’ staff positions in Governor’s office, state agencies
By Katherine Zehinder, The Carolina Journal, Feb 23, 2024 [H/t GAO]
“North Carolina is amongst several states that have received grants from the United Nations Foundation (UNF) for supporting climate initiatives and staff positions on climate policy.”
Questioning European Green
The Deindustrialization Of Europe In Five Charts
Industrial electricity use in the EU is collapsing. US policymakers “Have no excuse for not looking at Europe and learning.” Plus: screenings in Dallas, Tulsa, Fairfax, & Austin.
By Robert Bryce, His Blog, Feb 12, 2024
Dale Vince Demands Labour Borrow Billions For Wind Farms
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 12, 2024
How Much Has Dale Vince Been Given In Subsidies?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 12, 2024
“Labour Party donor, Dale Vince, is the sole owner of Ecotricity. (The company is actually owned by Green Britain Group Ltd, whose only shareholder is Vince).
Ecotricity Group owns a number of subsidiaries, mostly wind and solar farms. In total they generated 151 GWh in 2022/23:”
Funding Issues
Major American Financial Institutions Withdraw From Global Climate Investment Org In Blow To Green Agenda
By Nick Pope, Daily Caller, Feb 15, 2024
Barclays reins in oil and gas funding in victory for net zero activists
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 11, 2024
Litigation Issues
Congress and Courts enable Energy and Climate Fantasy and Tyranny
Supreme Court should end “Chevron deference” to restore checks, balances and reality
By Paul Driessen, WUWT, Feb 11, 2024
Oil industry group files legal challenge against Biden administration’s Gulf leasing plan
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Feb 12, 2024
Former FirstEnergy executives indicted in $60 million Ohio bribery scheme
By Taylor Giorno, The Hill, Feb 12, 2024
“Last spring, Householder and Borges were both convicted for their role in a racketeering conspiracy involving tens of millions of dollars in bribes to ensure the passage of a billion-dollar, taxpayer-funded bailout of two FirstEnergy nuclear plants in Ohio.”
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Raw Deal: Germany’s Minister Of Agriculture Proposes Tax On Meat
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Feb 13, 2024
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Greater-than-expected investment in EVs, wind, solar swells cost of Inflation Reduction Act: CBO
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Feb 9, 2024
Link to: The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034
By Staff, Congressional Budget Office, Feb 7, 2024
Biden puts $60M into three geothermal energy projects
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Feb 13, 2024
“The funds, from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, will fund three projects that aim to demonstrate that geothermal energy that comes from man-made reservoirs is effective and able to be used on a large scale.”
Energy Issues – Australia
Blackouts for 500,000: Time to talk about the transition to expensive, fragile, ugly, collapsing transmission lines?
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Feb 14, 2024
“Yesterday six high voltage transmission lines collapsed in Victoria leaving half a million people without electricity for hours. But only a few weeks ago five towers collapsed in Western Australia putting 30,000 in the dark. And out in Kalgoorlie, when the gas backup plants failed, thousands of people went for days without power in 40-degree heat. Some people were unable to call triple zero, freezers full of food were spoilt and nearly everything left to buy had to be paid for in cash.”
“The renewable cheer squad is calling for ‘a faster transition’ to somehow solve these blackouts but both solar and wind power need thousands of miles of the very same collapsible transmission lines, putting the grid at even more risk of sudden breaks.”
Victorian govt accidentally admits wind and solar could use 70% of all agricultural land in the state
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Feb 16, 2024
“Victoria is just not big enough to fit all the solar and wind industrial plants”
[SEPP Comment: Can’t the farmers move offshore?]
Washington’s Control of Energy
Joe Biden’s War on LNG: What’s Really at Stake
By Patrice Douglas, Real Clear Energy, Feb 13, 2024
Take Five – Gauging The Impact Of The DOE’s Pause In LNG Export Licenses
By David Braziel RBN Energy, Jan 31, 2024
How Do You Like Me Now? – Who Are The Winners And Losers With Biden’s LNG Permitting Pause?
By David Braziel, RBN Energy, Feb 15, 2024
“As we’ll discuss in today’s RBN blog, the decision is likely to put a number of Gulf Coast LNG export projects (one of them a real giant) in limbo, set back a Mexican project that would depend on Permian and Eagle Ford gas, and boost a couple of projects up in Canada. Oh, and there’s this: The pause also may help two avowed enemies of the U.S.: Russia and Iran.”
US ‘very concerned’ about China’s hold on mineral supply chain, Granholm says
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Feb 14, 2024
[SEPP Comment: But not concerned enough to stop permitting LNG exports.]
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Catch A Wave – Texas GulfLink, Bluewater Texas Hoping To Catch Next Wave Of U.S. Crude Exports
By Sheela Tobben, RBN Energy, Feb 12, 2024
“VLCCs are some of the largest ships serving the oil industry, each able to carry roughly 2 MMbbl, offering tremendous cost-efficiencies on a per-barrel basis. Right now, only one domestic facility can fully load these giant ships, and that’s the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP).”
[SEPP Comment: MMbbl means one million barrels each having a 42 US gallon capacity. (159 liters)]
Return of King Coal?
Dirty Secret
Global coal demand is smashing records.
Doomberg, Feb 16, 2024
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Wind and Solar Slaughtering India’s Iconic Bird
By Vijay Jayaraj, CO2 Coalition, Feb 12, 2024
Two windfarms share £80 million to switch off
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, Feb 15, 2024
The cost to consumers of so-called windfarm constraint payments is rising quickly.
[SEPP Comment: Why are not nuclear and coal-fired power plants paid to switch-off?]
Wind power output in Texas is trending down even as wind generation capacity increases
By Ed Ireland, Master Resource, Feb 16, 2024
“The inherent unreliability of wind power is highlighted by the recent experience in Texas.”
BLM takes comments on world’s biggest solar boondoggle
By David Wojick, CFACT, Feb 9, 2024
Federal government finalizes floating offshore wind areas off the Oregon Coast
By Monica Samayoa, Oregon Public Broadcast, Feb 13, 2024
“After the end of the public comment period, the federal agency will release the environmental assessment for further public comment, as well as a proposed sale notice indicating to interested companies the potential lease of the area.”
[SEPP Comment: The concept has been tested in Norway, Italy Portugal, Japan, among others. But the capital costs and operating costs are not clear; and appear very high, even when compared with the high fixed cost of onshore wind.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Can the government create a green hydrogen fuel industry?
By Steve Goreham, Washington Examiner, Feb 13, 2024
“They also have a draft Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) for the Plan, which they are taking comments on through April 28, 2024.”
When You Crunch The Numbers, Green Hydrogen Is A Non-Starter
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Feb 14, 2024
“We won’t really know how much this green hydrogen stuff actually costs until there are some real facilities up and running. But whether it is ten times as expensive as the stuff produced from natural gas, or only five times as expensive, doesn’t really matter. It is uneconomic, and nothing is going to change that. Nobody will ever buy it or use it without government mandates or subsidies or both.”
The Hydrogen Tax Credit Will Stimulate Innovation, Not Stymie Implementation
By Jonah Erlebacher, Real Clear Energy, Feb 12, 2024
[SEPP Comment: If the product is so good, why is stimulation needed?]
The Blue Hydrogen Bubble Must Burst
By Robin Gaster, Real Clear Energy, Feb 12, 2024
“There is a great deal of hype trumpeting the potential for hydrogen made from green electricity to serve as the Swiss Army knife of clean energy, but it is so-called “blue hydrogen” made with fossil fuels that is striding onto center stage. That’s understandable, as green hydrogen is not remotely price competitive, and producing it requires lots of green electricity, which is currently not available at that scale.”
[SEPP Comment: Is climate sensitive to colors?]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
Professor Dargaville: We Need More Grid Scale Batteries to Combat Supply Outages
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 14, 2024
[SEPP Comment: How many minutes/hours will the batteries last during a blackout?]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
How a crashing second-hand market slammed the brakes on EVs
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 16, 2024
“There is one further thought. Secondhand buyers tend to be less well off; as such they often won’t have off-street parking. So what use is an EV to them, however low the price?”
EV come EV go
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 14, 2024
Mr. Bean Was Right – and So Was Toyota
By Duggan Flanakin, Real Clear Energy, Feb 13, 2024
Carbon Schemes
Global carbon market is a $909 billion dollar game that rewards bureaucrats and bankers
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Feb 13, 2024
“The carbon market is not really a carbon market at all — the largest producers of CO2 are not even in the game. The Pacific Ocean can’t pay, the phytoplankton can’t be taxed and the northern boreal forests will get plain away with it unless a friend of a friend happens to own a nice plot that can be rebadged as a carbon farm. So politicians are sitting on a gold mine of opportunity. Most carbon in the world doesn’t count, and they get to be kingmakers to decide what does. What’s an act of God? — ask the Minister.”
Scientists Try Risky Air and Water Experiments Hoping to Stop Climate Change
By Mike Shedlock, Mish Talk, Feb 14, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to WSJ article: Scientists Resort to Once-Unthinkable Solutions to Cool the Planet
Three geoengineering projects seek to alter the chemistry of the atmosphere and the ocean. Critics warn of unintended consequences.
By Eric Niiler, WSJ, Feb 14, 2024
Scientists Look To Fight Climate Change By Dumping 6,000 Gallons Of Chemicals Into Ocean Near Martha’s Vineyard
By Nick Pope, Daily Caller, Feb 14, 2024
“A team of scientists is looking to dump chemicals into waters off the coast of Massachusetts this summer to research whether doing so could be an effective counter to ocean acidification and climate change, according to The Wall Street Journal.”
[SEPP Comment: Ocean acidification is a phony issue. Except in areas with geothermal activity emitting CO2, ocean remained alkaline even in time periods with high CO2.]
St Ives Bay carbon capture trial ‘very low risk’ – report
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 13, 2024
“Plans to add magnesium hydroxide to the sea at St Ives Bay in a bid to combat climate change are “very low risk”, according to an independent review.”
“The amount of carbon dioxide that could be captured in this way would surely be infinitesimally small, even if employed in bulk globally
Magnesium Hydroxide would be used in the form of a mineral called brucite. a relatively rare mineral found in rocks. This of course would require some sort of mining operation, along with crushing, both of which would involve fossil fuel emissions. I suspect those emissions would greatly outweigh any savings!”
California Dreaming
California regulator OKs $1.9B plan to expand zero-emission vehicle infrastructure
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Feb 14, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Keep running up the deficit!]
The California Energy Scam: Newsom’s actions of ‘leaking’ emissions to poorer developing countries
By Ronald Stein, America Out Loud, Feb 12, 2024
Oh Mann!
Mark Steyn ordered to pay $1 million to deter climate deniers from criticizing sacred scientists
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Feb 10, 2024
Oh Mann
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 14, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Lengthy post on the sordid affair.]
Celebrating Corruption
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Feb 14, 2024
Link to: Passion is not misconduct
By H. Holden Thorp, AAAS Science, Feb 13, 2024
From AAAS Science: “The hockey stick graph stands as published because the data were peer-reviewed and addressed questions from experts.”
Environmental Industry
MORE Privately-funded ‘Staff’, FOIA’d DOCS REVEAL: Bloomberg Moves Beyond Attorneys General — Louisiana PSC Case Study
Billionaire climate activist, who pledged hundreds of millions of dollars to end fossil fuels, is financing “staff” activists placed in State public utility regulatory commissions as he finances campaign behind LNG export terminal ‘pause’
By Staff, GAO, (Government Accountability & Oversight, Feb 13, 2024
Other News that May Be of Interest
Modern Scientific Controversies 2024: The Monarch Wars — Part 3
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Feb 10, 2024
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Claim: Climate Change is Causing Domestic Violence
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 16, 2024
Saving The Climate With Hair
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Feb 12, 2024
“Entrepreneurs are looking for ways to recycle human hair…”
[SEPP Comment: In the past, hairshirts were worn by penitents and ascetics (practicing severe self-discipline).]
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 14, 2024
“The University of Toronto figures the right way to deal with the collapse of university credibility and finances is to slash carbon emissions on its storied St. George campus in Toronto by 2027 ‘through a massive, $138-million infrastructure project that will cut emissions in half within three years.’”
ARTICLES
1. Big Climate Tries to Censor Opponents
Progressives move to block TV ads opposing the Biden EV mandate.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, Feb. 16, 2024
TWTW Summary: The editorial begins with:
“If President Biden’s electric-vehicle mandate is as popular as progressives claim, why are they trying to censor critics who want to inform the public about the mandate’s costs?
That’s the story this week, after the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) launched ads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, Ohio and Montana to educate Americans about the Administration’s back-door EV mandate. Mr. Biden is ‘rushing to ban new gas-powered cars’ and wants ‘to force you into an electric vehicle,’ one ad says.
The Biden team doth protest. ‘There is no EV mandate,’ a Biden campaign official declared. No? The Environmental Protection Agency has proposed greenhouse gas emissions standards that would effectively require that EVs make up two-thirds of auto maker sales by 2032. The standards will ‘accelerate the transition to electric vehicles,’ EPA said.
EPA’s proposed emissions rules are so stringent that auto makers will be able to comply only by producing an increasing number of ‘zero-emission vehicles’ or by buying regulatory credits from EV manufacturers like Tesla. Americans shopping for a new car will have no choice but to buy an EV or pay a fortune for the few gas-powered cars still available.
Yet Mr. Biden and his allies don’t want voters to know that banning gas-powered cars is their end game. That’s why the progressive umbrella group Climate Power on Tuesday shot off a missive to broadcasters demanding that they pull the AFPM ads—or else. These ‘advertisements include obvious lies aimed at deceiving the public and must be pulled from the air immediately,’ Climate Power chief operating officer Jill Shesol wrote. But who’s actually trying to deceive the public?”
The editorial goes into some details of the letter, then concludes with:
“Opponents of ‘cleaner alternatives,’ the letter adds, ‘do not have the right to mislead voters and spread disinformation on public airwaves.’ But they do have a First Amendment right to critique public policies that damage their livelihoods.
AFPM is doing a public service. Mr. Biden and the climate lobby are misleading the public. There’s no reason for local broadcasters to bow to the climate lobby’s deceptions.”
**************************
2. Net Zero Becomes All Dissonance and No Cognition
Politicians have trapped themselves into waging a crusade voters say they want but won’t pay for.
By Joseph C. Sternberg, WSJ, Feb 8, 2024
TWTW Summary: The journalist begins with:
“The fault, dear Olaf, lies not in ourselves but in our voters.
That, with apologies to Shakespeare, is starting to look like an explanation for the net-zero agonies now engulfing German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and many other Western politicians. It’s both fun and accurate to lambaste our political class for its many climate hypocrisies and idiocies. But as climate policy becomes more expensive and less coherent by the week, voters deserve more and more of the blame.
A clue lies in a report released this week by the Ifo Institute, a think tank in Germany. Some 55% of respondents said they believe their country should play a leading role in the global effort to combat climate change, in a poll of Germans conducted last September. Considerably fewer were willing to pay anything for it. Asked their preferred measures for achieving net zero, only 16% supported mandates such as a ban on natural-gas-fired home heating that would impose direct costs on households. Eight percent supported an explicit carbon tax, the most economically efficient way to reduce emissions.
The punch line is that Germans’ most popular option for addressing climate change was ‘targeted subsidies for climate-friendly measures,’ which 28% of respondents supported. Note the timing. This poll was conducted before a constitutional court ruling in November disallowed Berlin’s preferred method for using off-balance-sheet government borrowing to fund climate-related subsidies. Germans supported climate subsidies when it looked like free money.
Not anymore. The admission that subsidies must be funded by tax increases or offsetting spending cuts has cast Mr. Scholz’s administration into a crisis from which it might not recover. Case in point: A mass protest—by farmers, as it happens—erupted when Berlin tried to inch toward a policy vaguely resembling a carbon tax. The administration had to backtrack. Whatever else voters say they want on climate, people really, really don’t want to redistribute the costs of mitigation toward those who emit more carbon—at least not if Johann Q. Publik thinks he might be the emitter in question.
I don’t mean to pick on the Germans, as rich a vein as that is. Everyone else is confused, too. A December poll in Britain found that 85% of respondents described climate change as ‘an important problem’ facing the U.K. (with 46% of respondents describing it as the most important or one of the most important problems). Forty-one percent said they’d be more likely to vote for a party that promised strong action on climate change vs. 33% who said they’d be more likely to vote for a party promising to slow down on climate policy.”
After further discussion regarding other polls, the journalist concludes with:
“This explains the reluctance of even moderately sensible politicians to admit what they’re so obviously doing: abandoning the climate project. Rollbacks of the most expensive, least popular climate measures, such as electric-vehicle mandates or agricultural-vehicle taxes, invariably are accompanied by pledges to keep doing something else for the climate at someone else’s expense.
It’s a note of caution for those of us breathing a sigh of relief at recent net-zero reversals. Voters are growing clearer headed about what they aren’t prepared to pay to avert climate change. Yet true sanity won’t arrive until they’ve decided they also don’t care.”
“”a kind of leaning over backwards.””
These days it’s bending over backwards….
Are [science] teachers really sadistic (kind and tolerant in Newspeak) at heart? A sadist is, after all, a person who derives gratification from inflicting pain or humiliation on others.
“”16-year-old Amy O’Brien has been acutely aware of the climate crisis since the age of eight, when she first learned in primary school about the impact of melting Arctic ice on polar bears.
…
By age 13 or 14, “fear kicked in” as she witnessed increased flooding of Cork’s River Lee, and learned how extreme weather was displacing people in countries like India and the Philippines. “Their lives are torn apart, and these are the same people who contributed the least to this crisis,” O’Brien says. “I started to feel fear and hurt for what they were already going through.””
How can we help kids cope with ‘eco-anxiety’?
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20220315-how-eco-anxiety-affects-childrens-minds
To quote David Gilmour: “”Hey teacher; leave them kids alone.””
I am impressed with the look at albedo and radiation as expressed by Stefan-Boltzmann. In my studies I have noticed that scientific process has never been used in the search for proof that CO2 is the control knob. As an EE and a ham radio operator, I have spent many hours designing, building, and measuring various factors dealing with measurements of noise and amplifiers. I probably spent more than I should have on better and better measurement equipment in order to gather more and better results.
One thing I learned was that not all noise is generated by the atmosphere. Every component and even test equipment contributes. I liken this to the atmosphere where there are many, many components. Climate science seems to be tunneled vision into using linear regression techniques to prove there is one and only source for warming, CO2. Every study you read has one source of warming, CO2.
When will they learn that publishing time series of temperature will never, ever prove causation by anything?
Why are we still using two samples a day to determine an average temperature?
Has anyone seen a published paper where integrated daily temperatures have been used to determine true temperature changes over the last 40 years?
With that information, based upon Kelvin, anomalies are no longer needed! Any growth or reduction will show up in the total integrated value.
I can only wonder how he got elected in that state.
‘I can only wonder how he got elected in that state.’
So-called ‘deep-red’ states have an issue with apathetic Republican voters that don’t bother to show up for their primaries, ensuring that only ‘moderate’ RINO squishes are on the ballot for the general elections. The result is Republican politicians that consistently team-up with, and get dunked on by, radical Democrats on ‘bi-partisan’ legislation on the border, gun control, budgets, etc.
Open primaries. People who are moderate Democrats particularly run in Republican primaries. Once a person is the R candidate in most districts they win the general election. I don’t know if the takeover of Democratic party by radicals has caused this, or if it is a tactic, but R politics is full of fakes.
Thanks, Kevin.
Open (Republican) primaries may allow ‘moderate’ Democrats to participate, but, again, it’s the apathy of the Republican base that allows these RINOs to win the primary and then get elected in landslides when the Republican majority finally shows up.
Compare the above to what happens in deep blue districts / states. Again, low turn out in the primary, but in these cases, it’s the hardcore Left that shows up. Subsequently, the most radical Democrats can then just coast to victory in the general election.
• Current levels of carbon dioxide are at or near historically low concentrations.
I think that should be “geologically low” not “historically low”- since history began with writing.
The Jacoby and d’Arrigo 1989 network was a classic example: the original article reported that they had sampled 36 northern treeline sites, from which they selected 10 with the “best record…of temperature-influenced tree growth”, to which they added a chronology of Gaspe cedars that was far south of the northern treeline at low altitudes.”
Just how the hell did they KNOW that they had the best temperature-influenced tree growth? Obviously, they just assumed it because they liked the numbers.
It’s a very bright sunny day here on The Fen right now. A bit breezy and about 12°C
Me and my solar power meter took a walk out onto the (vigorously growing) lawn.
Very dense leafy grass, about 4 or 5″ long and shining/glistening in the breeze. It’s the sort you’ll find growing on sand dunes near the beach/seaside ‘most everywhere
Solar noon, standing the middle of the grass:
Do I take that to mean the grass has and Albedo of 220/620 = 0.35
Across the road from my garden is a (sodden wet) ploughed field, I see Albedo of 0.1
Would we take that to be about the same as asphalt for example. no matter really.
Anyway, we’re told that Earth’s Albedo has decreased
(I don’t for one minute think that that means anyone has been reading my ravings for the last 5/6/7 years but it’s progress)
Question arising: How does my little bit of science (nothing stopping you doing the same) stack up against the low Albedo assertion here vs the Global Greening claim.
I know I know I know this is Climate Science, BUT at some point we are going to have to stop ‘having our cake and eating it‘
i.e. Everything can not be true at once
what happened to all my ‘/’ marks, are you only allowed so many….
* it reads 960Wm² >> it reads 960W/m² et al others
Story tip:
Warehouse storing lithium batteries goes up in flames in France amid growing fears over their dangers
This value is about the same as the increase in downwelling IR for a full doubling of CO2. This is supposed to cause a temperature increase of 1 C. Since temperatures are mainly measured in urban areas or homogenized to show their warming, it would appear all the warming comes from albedo changes.
Basic physics also says that it takes more energy to increase temperature of 1 kg of something than 0.5 kg of the same something.
We are told that the mass of the atmosphere has increased by many giga tons but this increase has never been accounted for. There is no increase in input energy so how can the atmosphere go up in temperature?
Story Tip
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/chicago-sues-oil-companies-causing-climate-change-points-1995-heat-wave
https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/hawaii-bound-visitors-soon-pay-climate-tax
Story tip
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/federal-appeals-court-kills-obama-era-moratorium-on-coal-leasing