Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #582

The Week That Was: 2024-01-06 (January 6, 2024)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: “No statement should be believed because it is made by an authority.” –Robert A. Heinlein [H/t William Readdy]

Number of the Week: MINUS 67°F (-55°C)

THIS WEEK:

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Scope: This TWTW announces the awardees of the 2023 Frederick Seitz Memorial Award. It discusses the major efforts to dispel false concepts concerning climate change and carbon dioxide caused global warming presented in TWTW during 2023. Then, it discusses the most devastating report on Net Zero carbon dioxide emissions ever reviewed. The report is on the UK, but it applies to the US and other European countries as well.

********************

2023 Fredrick Seitz Award: The Frederick Seitz Memorial Award recognizes the unsung heroes of the climate wars. It rewards scholars for having the courage to swim against the tide of conventional thinking despite the financial and professional disincentives. It seeks to make up, in some small way, for the denial of recognition, promotions, and honors by a politicized and increasingly bureaucratized academy.

Global warming is the biggest public policy controversy of our era, and much is at stake. Scientists, economists, and others willing to speak out against claims of a scientific consensus that global warming is both man-made and “dangerous” have been publicly ridiculed, removed from academic positions, and been denied the usual recognition, promotions, and honors by a politicized and increasingly bureaucratized academy.

It is appropriate to name an award for these courageous individuals after the late Frederick Seitz, one of the greatest scientists of the twentieth century. Rare among scientists today, Dr. Seitz was willing to speak out against the politicization of science and “the extension of regulations through bureaucracy” that over-reliance on government funding has caused. He was an outspoken critic of global warming alarmism: the claim that a mythical consensus of scientists on the causes and consequences of climate change meant the debate was somehow over or that criticism could be suppressed.

It is fitting that the two recipients of the 2023 Frederick Seitz Memorial Award spoke out against the false UN IPCC claims that starting in the industrial area the globe has undergone an unprecedented and dramatic increase in warming (climate change) that it has never experienced before due to carbon dioxide emissions. The IPCC illustrated its claim with the notorious hockey-stick graph which combined two different estimates of Northern Hemisphere temperatures without a stabilization, or calibration, period to show they measure the same thing the same way. One set of “data” are from tree ring proxies which are subject to a number of influences from changing weather conditions such as moisture. These data show no warming from the year 1000 AD to about 1850 then sharp warming to about 1950. They do not show the Medieval warm period (about 900 to 1300 AD) which is well established by other data in many parts of the globe, nor do they show the Little Ice Age (about 1300 to 1850). A frequent excuse is that these applied only to countries in the North Atlantic. But the North Atlantic is part of the Northern Hemisphere, the temperatures of which the hockey-stick is claimed to depict.

The second set of data in the graph is identified as instrument data starting about 1850. These show a sharp increase in temperatures from about 1850 to 1950 corresponding with the proxy data, then continue to 2000. In 1850, few parts of the globe had instruments measuring temperatures and those that existed were predominantly in Europe, the US, and European settlements in other countries. Although instrument data is now widely available, there is no agreed upon standard for measurement or where measurements should be located. Even today, there is no comprehensive standard of how and where to measure temperatures to obtain a global estimate.

The Board of Directors of SEPP acted upon the recommendation of a selection committee chard by William Happer and unanimously voted to grant the 2023 Frederick Seitz Memorial Award to Statistician Stephen McIntyre and Econometrician Ross McKitrick, who withstood professional abuse for pointing out the scientific deficiencies of the notorious “hockey-stick.” That graph of temperature history suddenly appeared in the Summary for Policymakers of the Synthesis Report of Third Assessment Report of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR3, 2001). [It still can be found there as Figure 1. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar3/syr/wg-i-summary-for-policymakers/

Both McIntyre and McKitrick remain active in exposing deficiencies in the climate community and are frequently cited in TWTW for their work.

********************

Dispelling False Concepts: Physical science advances in several ways. One major type of advance is by improvements in understanding nature, A second type is dispelling false concepts with physical evidence. Last week, TWTW focused on what may be the most significant improvements in understanding the role of greenhouse gases in influencing temperatures covered in TWTW in 2023. This week TWTW will focus on what may be the most significant efforts covered in 2023 on dispelling false concepts. Next week, one focus of TWTW will be on contributions made by members of SEPP.

********************

Earth’s Climates: For several years MIT Professor emeritus Richard Lindzen has been stating that Earth has many climates that are constantly changing and cannot be measured by temperatures alone. In a November 21 interview by Jan Jekielek of the Epoch Times Lindzen explained [Boldface added]

“Climate is a complex subject. We treat it in the press as though it’s one number, and that’s what climate is. But before this issue, climate science was primarily to understand the Earth’s climate at present. The reason that is complicated is represented by something called the Köppen classification.”

First published by German-Russian climatologist Wladimir Köppen in 1884, the Köppen classification has been changed several times. The latest changes are those by Rudolf Geiger in 1954 and 1961, and Glen Trewartja in 1966 and 1980. The classification applies to plant life on land. The system has three levels of classification. The first level has five main climate groups: A (tropical), B (arid), C (temperate), D (continental), and E (polar). The second level divides the climate groups by seasonal precipitation and the third level divides these levels by levels of heat (hot, warm, cold) and summer or winter. Lindzen states:

“We have dozens of climate regimes on the earth right now, not one, and they all behave somewhat differently. The notion that there is one number, a temperature of the earth that they all work in lockstep with, is absurd. But that number itself, people don’t understand what it is. I could ask you, “What is the temperature of the earth?” How do you answer that?

Mr. Jekielek: My answer is that people are taking temperatures in different places around the world and pulling an average out of that.

Mr. Lindzen: “You average Mount Everest and the Dead Sea, and what do you get? No, they don’t do that. They realize that doesn’t work. The first thing is they take what’s called the temperature anomaly. At each station, they take a 30-year mean, roughly 1950 to 1980 let’s say, and they then look at the deviation from that mean and they average the deviations at each station. You’re getting the average temperature change and that’s what you see in this graph.” [Not shown here]

You see this graph. It has been going up since 1800, and certainly by 1880, it’s going up by one and a fraction degree, which isn’t a heck of a lot. But there’s something wrong with that diagram. What’s wrong with that diagram is you don’t see the data points. You should always see the data points. If you plot that and show the data points, this little thing going up a degree or so is surrounded by dense clouds of data that are ranging from minus 10 to 10, 20 degrees.

The mean anomaly on that looks like a horizontal line. Your first estimate is that it’s constant. There’s a couple of things to be said about that. You take away the data points and then you expand the scale so that one degree or two degrees occupies your whole graph. Now, it looks big. People don’t look at the numbers, and they don’t know the data. The data itself says that at any given point, almost as many stations are cooling as they are warming.

That is saying that it’s not telling you about any place, which is consistent with the fact that we have many climates. You’re right. Then you smooth it out because you don’t want to show the wiggles each year. But if you don’t have the wiggles, you don’t know what’s called the variance, which is about 0.4 degrees, which means anytime the media bloviates about a 0.1-degree increase, they’re talking about an insignificant increase.

The whole issue at that level depends on a public that is utterly innumerate [numerically illiterate] and cannot read a graph. Unfortunately, when it comes to most politicians, I think that’s correct. I’ve occasionally watched a Senate hearing, and somebody comes – Al Gore was often doing this when he was in the Senate – and shows a graph. I thought, ‘Maybe he’s trying to point something out because the graph didn’t look right.’

No, he wasn’t doing that at all. He was showing his colleagues he had a graph as if to say, ‘Don’t screw around with me.’ It wasn’t that this was information. Coupled with ad infinitum repetition, a la Goebbels, and coupled with the media repeating this, most people just can’t deal with it. They assume this can’t happen unless there’s really something there, but there isn’t.”

See the December 9 TWTW https://www.sepp.org/twtwfiles/2023/TWTW%20Dec%209.pdf

********************

What Is Omitted: John Clauser is a retired experimental and theoretical physicists who received the Nobel in physics in 2022 for his work in Quantum Mechanics. A characteristic of quantum mechanics is exploring many strange ideas and discarding those that fail testing. For example, one strange idea that survives testing is the particle-wave duality of electromagnetic energy (light).

On June 26, Clauser gave the keynote lecture at Quantum Korea 2023 in which he stated, “I don’t believe there is a climate crisis.” Clauser went on to amplify this lecture with another one on November 14 for which TWTW did not have a transcript but after a review the video TWTW stated:

Clauser starts his talk on November 14 by stating “The planet is not imperiled.” He recognizes the work of Will Happer, Arthur Robinson, Willie Soon, Fred Singer, Richard Lindzen, Judith Curry, and many others. He also cited the work of a growing list of advocacy groups including the Heartland Institute, the Non-Governmental International Panel on Climate Change, Access to Energy, the CO2 Coalition, Doctors for Disaster Preparedness, and Clintel’s World Climate Declaration.

As with AMO physicists William van Wijngaarden and William Happer, Clauser recognizes that clouds – which no one understands – are a critical part of the puzzle of Earth’s climate change. It is foolish to ignore this lack of understanding. According to Clauser, the cloud-sunlight relationship stabilizes Earth’s temperatures and is dominant over CO2. Clouds are highly variable and reflect up to 90% of the sunlight hitting them, while oceans reflect only about 20%. Overall, our planet reflects about 30% of the sunlight out into space. Clauser asks, “What does the earth look like when viewed from space in sunlight? Negligible ice is evident in near-equatorial satellite views (areas that the sun typically illuminates). Painting rooftops white is a waste. Clouds cover 60% to 65% of the land and about 70% of the oceans. Clauser then explores how his cloud-sunlight-reflectivity thermostat mechanism works. He compares his views with those of the UN International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [and equally to its followers such as NOAA and the National Science Foundation which finance the US global modeling efforts at Princeton and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)].

Even though the IPCC shows a heat balance diagram for all skies, its numbers are for clear skies, but not for overcast skies. This is deceptive. Further, according to Clauser, NOAA has demonstrated dishonesty on climate, extreme weather events, particularly in the work of NOAA administrator Jane Lubchenco and Tom Karl who provide “An important example of what I call a government-sponsored technical con.” He cites former DOE Under Secretary for Science Steve Koonin’s book Unsettled? What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, and Why It Matters in giving examples how NOAA has doctored data to make claims of increasing extreme weather events. One example is EF3+ data suddenly disappeared from NOAA’S Weather and Climate Extremes Index, presumably because these devastating tornadoes are declining. EF is the extended Fujitsu scale for grading tornadoes, where level 3 or higher is considered severe.

Clauser concludes by saying that something is seriously missing in the physics reported by the IPCC (and now in the physics reported by the US National Climate Assessment, which is composed of 14 agencies, including the National Science Foundation). The real issue is an energy shortage, not an excessive use of fossil fuels.

See the December 2 TWTW https://www.sepp.org/twtwfiles/2023/TWTW%20Dec%202.pdf

********************

Contesting Policy: In February, William Happer, Richard Lindzen, and geologist Gregory Wrightstone presented a paper challenging the concept of Net Zero (zero carbon dioxide emissions). In the Executive Summary they wrote, in part:

“Governments around the globe are taking actions to implement fossil fuel-free or “Net Zero” energy systems without a thorough examination of the scientific basis for doing so. This paper undertakes that examination by reviewing the scientific support (or lack thereof) that has been used to justify this transition to Net Zero. No attempt is made to address the significant economic, societal, or environmental consequences of a near-total reliance on renewable energy and the required battery-backup that is necessary to transition to a fossil fuel free future.

Two of the paper’s authors – Drs. William Happer and Richard Lindzen, professors emeriti at Princeton University and Massachusetts Institute of Technology, respectively – have spent decades studying and writing about the physics of Earth’s atmosphere. The third, Gregory Wrightstone, a geologist of more than 40 years, has spent much of the last decade writing and speaking about the interplay of geology, history, and climate.

The authors find that Net Zero – the global movement to eliminate fossil fuels and its emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases – to be scientifically invalid and a threat to the lives of billions of people. Among the paper’s findings are:

• Net Zero proponents regularly report that extreme weather is more severe and frequent because of climate change while the evidence shows no increase – and, in some cases, a decrease – in such events.

• Computer models supporting every government Net Zero regulation (and the trillions of dollars subsidizing renewables and electric cars, trucks, home heating, appliances and many other products) do not work.

• Scientific research and studies that do not support the ‘consensus’ narrative of harmful man-made global warming are routinely censored and excluded from government reports such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the National Climate Assessment.

• Conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that contradict the narrative of catastrophic global warming from fossil fuels are rewritten by government bureaucrats for public reports to support the false narrative of Net Zero.

• The many benefits of modest warming and increasing carbon dioxide are routinely either eliminated or minimized in governmental reports.

• Eliminating fossil fuels and implementing Net Zero policies and actions mean the elimination of fossil fuel-derived nitrogen fertilizers and pesticides that will result in about half the world’s population not having enough food to eat. Many would starve. [See recent events in Sri Lanka]

• The adoption of Net Zero is the rejection of overwhelming scientific evidence that there is no risk of catastrophic global warming caused by fossil fuels and CO2. Net Zero, then, violates the tenets of the scientific method that for more than 300 years has underpinned the advancement of western civilization.”

On July 21, William Happer and Richard Lindzen modified the above and on behalf of the CO2 Coalition submitted to the EPA: “CO2 Coalition Submits Comment on EPA’s Proposed Power Plant Regulations as Dangerous and Unscientific.” See links in the March 4 TWTW https://www.sepp.org/twtwfiles/2023/TWTW%203-4-23.pdf and the July 22 TWTW https://www.sepp.org/twtwfiles/2023/TWTW%207-22-23.pdf

********************

Folly: Investment Analyst and commentator Rupert Darwall authored a devastating report for the Real Clear Foundation titled The Folly of Climate Leadership: Net zero and Britain’s DISASTROUS ENERGY POLICIES (caps in original). Darwall traces the bipartisan political effort in the UK to enforce the concept of Net Zero carbon dioxide emissions on the unsuspecting UK public. The forward by American author and attorney Andrew Puzder serves as a warning to the American public of the disastrous policies Washington is undertaking. It states:

“Rupert Darwall’s timely report is a much-needed warning to America. It shows what would happen if Democrats and Progressives get their way and inflict net zero climate policies on the country. Britain has been going down this path since 2008, when Parliament wrote an 80 percent decarbonization target into law, which it raised in 2019 to 100 percent, i.e., net zero.

The results have been a disaster. Even before the recent surge in energy costs, in 2020, Britons were paying about 75 percent more for electricity than Americans; and during the energy crisis in 2022, electricity rates for British businesses were more than double the average paid by US businesses. High and rising energy costs have locked Britain into economic decline. British politicians’ boasts of climate leadership by cutting greenhouse gas emissions faster than any other major economy ignore the unfortunate fact that the British economy has been stagnating since 2008. This luxury net zero policy, which only the rich can afford, has been devastating for ordinary Britons just trying to heat their homes and get to work.

Surging energy costs are the result of a double whammy of cap-and-trade policies and carbon taxes, on the one hand, and renewable subsidies, on the other. Cap-and-trade imposts made the energy crisis following Putin’s invasion of Ukraine far worse. In 2022, government-imposed carbon costs amounted to an average $128 per megawatt hour (MWh) for electricity generated from coal and $51 per MWh for electricity generated from natural gas. These come on top of the actual fuel costs of coal and natural gas, which averaged $150 per MWh for electricity generated from coal and $160 per MWh for natural gas— far higher than the cost of electricity generation in America. For comparison, in 2022, the fuel cost per MWh of electricity generated from coal in the US was $27 per MWh and $61 per MWh for natural gas. It is no wonder that the energy crisis is causing such hardship to ordinary British people.

Britons also have to pay the cost of subsidizing politically favored wind and solar, which massively over-reward renewable investors. Analysis of the renewable portfolios of Britain’s Big Six energy companies shows that the average price for wind- and solar-generated electricity between 2009 and 2020 was well over £100 per MWh, whereas the price for reliable electricity from gas- and coal-fired power stations fell from £60 per MWh in 2013 to less than £50 per MWh in 2020. That year, the scale of the consumer subsidies of renewables helped them to profit £61 per MWh of electricity on average for their intermittent, non-demand responsive and therefore less valuable output. Looked at objectively, it’s completely crazy.

On the other hand, rising carbon costs forced the Big Six to take massive write-downs on their coal- and gas-fired power stations, collectively recording a staggering £1.6bn loss in 2014 for providing the reliable generating capacity that Britain’s households and businesses depend on.

Unsurprisingly, these policies have led to overinvestment in renewables and underinvestment in the new generating capacity needed to keep the lights on—and costs down. Britain’s non-intermittent, reliable generating capacity peaked in 2010, at 88.0 gigawatts (GW). It then fell by 25.1 GW over the next decade, mainly as coal-fired generation was shuttered. Over the same period, wind and solar capacity rose by 33.5 GW. Because wind and solar are both inherently inefficient and intermittent, the amount of electricity generated per GW of capacity has fallen by 28 percent since 2009. Deploying capital on renewables is an extremely inefficient use of capital investment, which means that as interest rates go up, so do energy costs. It’s the very last thing that struggling American—or British—families need.

Britain managed to keep its lights on only because demand has been driven down by higher electricity prices. Between 2010 and 2019, economy-wide electricity consumption fell by 10.8 percent. Even so, there has been a widening gap between consumption and domestic generation that has been filled by a surge in imported electricity from its European neighbors. These options, it should be emphasized, are not an option for the US. We cannot import the equivalent of two-fifths of Canada’s electricity output.

Energy prices comparable with those in Britain—and across much of Europe—would tear the heart out of the US economy, which relies on cheap, abundant energy. The impact on working- and middle-class Americans would be intolerable.

 Americans are fortunate to live under our Constitution’s system of checks and balances. There is no way Congress would pass legislation like Britain’s Climate Change Act, which made net zero the law of the land after an 88-minute debate in the House of Commons. Nonetheless, the threat of net zero is as real as it is dangerous. Net zero is the policy of the Biden administration. It has set the goal of entirely decarbonizing electricity generation by 2035. Earlier this year, the Environmental Protection Agency issued a proposed regulation on greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel power generators that, if implemented, would go a long way toward achieving this economically devastating goal.

Two years previously, in May 2021, the White House issued an Executive Order on the adoption of a whole-of-government approach to climate financial risk disclosure, demonstrating how an alliance between the administrative state and woke ESG investors on Wall Street would bring about net zero. Additionally, Congress passed the misbegotten energy bill misnamed the Inflation Reduction Act, which provides for budget-busting, fiscally irresponsible uncapped subsidies of wind and solar, which will wreak havoc on the economics of reliable generating capacity, just as it has in Britain. Even highly subsidized wind and solar cannot keep the lights on, and they destroy the economic viability of the power plants that do.

If that’s not enough, Mike Bloomberg announced in September that he is giving a further $500m to fund his Beyond Carbon campaign to close down America’s remaining coal-fired power stations and halve gas-fired generation by 2030 through Astroturf campaigning and litigation. When cap-and-trade failed in Congress, Bloomberg writes, his team refused to let politics trump progress, showing his utter contempt for our representative democracy and free-market economy. Net zero elites like Bloomberg will stop at nothing to impose their vision of energy poverty on the rest of American people.

Renewable energy is not a low-cost substitute for fossil fuels. Renewables are not cheap, nor can they provide the reliability that modern societies expect and on which they depend. This report convincingly demonstrates how Britain was conned into net zero by deceptive and illusory promises of cheap wind power. The bursting of the wind-power bubble this summer came too late for Britain. It has come just in time to save America from making a similar calamitous error. It’s not too late to heed Britain’s warning, and we should all thank Rupert Darwall for warning us.”

The overview of the report states:

This report is the first comprehensive analysis of Britain’s climate and energy policies and their impact on electricity generation and costs, as well as on energy security. It shows how increasingly stringent climate policies have been justified on the basis of false claims of low and falling renewable energy costs, especially of offshore wind, so that net zero was adopted in ignorance of its likely costs. Subsequent official analyses of net zero paint an optimistic picture based on economic make-believe.

  • Part I places Britain’s claim to climate leadership in context and notes how accelerating reductions in carbon dioxide emissions have been accompanied by unprecedentedly weak economic growth.
  • Part II is a critical examination of the evolution of energy policy since 2015 and demonstrates how politicians and civil servants were willingly duped by climate-lobby claims of low wind costs; it contrasts these claims with actual offshore wind cost data and goes on to examine the flawed assessments of the economic consequences of net zero by the Treasury and the Office for Budget Responsibility. It ends with a brief analysis of public opinion, which broadly—albeit weakly—accepts Britain’s net zero policy consensus.
  • Part III comments on Britain powering past coal, which worsened the 2022 energy crisis by raising costs and sacrificed coal as the best hedge against threats to energy security.
  • Part IV is an overview of the electricity sector, and
  • Part V is a deep dive into the Big Six energy companies’ segmental data, illustrating the importance of data transparency.
  • Part VI offers some concluding thoughts on the antidemocratic gambit of legislating a net zero target, with the aim of putting net zero beyond politics. It tables two policy recommendations: de-legislating net zero; and opening the books on all publicly supported renewable energy projects as a necessary condition to having a properly informed debate on energy policy.”

It is telling that the productivity of the economy of the UK has not increased significantly since the 2008 financial recession primarily due to increasing energy costs, particularly electricity costs. Wind and solar cannot provide reliable electricity that a modern economy requires. The ideas that they can provide affordable, reliable electricity are nothing but green fairy tales.

The Attorney General of Ohio, David Yost a Republican, had a warning in the Wall Street Journal about the “whole government” approach to Net Zero that Washington is undertaking. He wrote, in part:

It’s fashionable to talk about ‘red flags’ in relationships, addiction, mental health and more. Here’s another red flag: a White House ‘whole-of-government approach.’ It’s a sign that an executive branch of limited powers, supposedly operating under policy authorization from Congress, is about to do something without authority and in violation of the Constitution.

The Biden administration has promised whole-of-government approaches to promoting unions, climate change, cybersecurity, electric vehicles, cryptocurrency and restoring salmon runs to the Snake and Columbia rivers. In October, the White House and the National Endowment for the Arts announced a whole-of-government conference on the pressing national emergency of arts and culture.

When an administration invokes whole of government, it is mustering all the agencies under its command to a preferred goal. Thus, the Securities and Exchange Commission, designed to regulate stock exchanges, is pressed into service to battle climate change. The Environmental Protection Agency, designed to promote clean air, land, and water, is dragooned into energy and industrial policy.

Such approaches haven’t fared well in the courts. Consider the administration’s whole-of-government approach to Covid-19. In Alabama Association of Realtors v. HHS (2021), the Supreme Court found that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s eviction moratorium almost certainly overstepped its authority.”

After discussing legal rebukes, Yost continues:

“The Biden’s administration’s whole-of-government approach proceeds, undaunted by judicial rebuke. According to the White House, ‘President Biden and Vice President Harris have mobilized a whole-of-government effort in every sector of the economy—taking executive actions that will reduce greenhouse gas emissions.’ This includes pushing financial regulators to take on environmental issues. The centerpiece of this initiative, the climate disclosure rule the SEC proposed in April 2022, has yet to be finalized, leaving businesses in limbo about the regulatory burdens they might shoulder.”

After discussing litigation that has been filed, Yost concludes:

“The notion of a whole-of-government approach seems to have originated in the late 1990s in Prime Minister Tony Blair’s U.K., a country without a written constitution or separation of powers. The impetus was government departments not talking to each other, duplicating efforts, or even working at cross purposes. But even in highly centralized Britain, this approach wasn’t greeted with unanimous enthusiasm. Journalist Simon Hoggart called it a “sneery, condescending phrase that has the dabs of the Downing Street neologicians all over it.”

Whatever its merits for a parliamentary system, in America it is a flashing dummy light on democracy’s dashboard. As the Supreme Court has made repeatedly and abundantly clear, administrative agencies exceed their authority when they seek to address major questions without clear congressional delegation.

To be sure, there are moments that call for a whole-of-government approach—think World War II. But Congress is part of the government, too. Under the American system, marshaling all the resources of the government toward a single end requires that lawmakers and the executive establish that end together.”

Given the lack of physical evidence of dangerous warming caused by CO2 emissions, Net Zero is an inhuman policy imposed on civilization. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Article # 1.

********************

Number of the Week: MINUS 67°F (-55°C) At 5:38 am local time on Jan 7 (15:38 EST Jan 6), AccuWeather reported the temperature of Oymyakon, Sakha, Russia was MINUS 67°F (-55°C)]. Located in the Yana-Oymyakon Highlands, along the Indigirka River, Oymyakon has an estimated population of 500 to 900. How does one average this temperature with Washington, DC, temperature? See link “Siberia is heating up around twice as quickly as other parts of the world.” under Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?

NEWS YOU CAN USE:

Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science

Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts

Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels

By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019

http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/

Download with no charge:

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Climate-Change-Reconsidered-II-Fossil-Fuels-FULL-Volume-with-covers.pdf

Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming

The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/

Download with no charge:

https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming

Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate

S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008

http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf

Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data

By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019

Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer

The Role of Greenhouse Gases in Energy Transfer in the Earth’s Atmosphere

By W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Mar 3, 2023

Challenging the Orthodoxy

The Folly of Climate Leadership

Net zero and Britain’s DISASTROUS ENERGY POLICIES

By Rupert Darwall, Real Clear Foundation, December 2023

Climate Scientists Say We Should Embrace Higher CO2 Levels

While governments pour billions of dollars into lowering CO2 emissions, several climate experts say CO2 is essential and higher levels are not a problem.

By Katie Spence, The Epoch Times, Dec 30, 2023

https://www.theepochtimes.com/article/climate-scientists-say-we-should-embrace-higher-co2-levels-5551562?utm_source=Morningbrief&src_src=Morningbrief&utm_campaign=mb-2023-12-31&src_cmp=mb-2023-12-31&utm_medium=email&est=YHmZhaxQe8%2BauX777TTiaY3f19U9pAPT4Uh%2BgpJWKn6C5UFFxN1GgTctFg%3D%3D

“Mr. [John] Christy said the earth’s climate has ‘tremendous natural variability’ and that it’s currently in a gradual warming phase.

‘CO2 has been unfairly demonized because it is actually plant food in its atmospheric form, and it is the consequence of generating carbon-based energy, which unquestionably improves lives around the world,’ he said.

He calls CO2 the ‘currency of life.’”

Restoring the Sciences: Rethinking Climate Risk with Judith Curry

Video featuring Judit Curry, National Association of Scholars, Via Charles Rotter, WUWT, Jan 1, 2024

Torrential Rain, a 120-Plus Year Record from Kuranda, near Cairns (Part 1)

By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Jan 2, 2024

“Yet, curiously, climate change catastrophists and leading sceptics alike tend to deny this cooling and go on and on, variously about the one degree C increase in temperatures through the twentieth century.

They also like to claim that it is impossible to forecast rainfall, even my colleagues at the IPA. Of course, if you strip every historical temperature record of all meaningful cycles (particularly the cooling from 1920 to 1940) then reliable rainfall forecasting does become impossible.”

Junk Climate Science

By Norman Rogers, American Thinker, Jan 1, 2024

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2024/01/junk_climate_science.html

“Models are evaluated by simulating past climate to see how well the model can track it. This is analogous to creating a mathematical model of the stock market that tracks past ups and downs and then applying the model to try to predict the future. This doesn’t work well as evidenced by the fact that there are not hordes of stock market forecasters that are billionaires. The problem is that fitting the past with a model is often an exercise in curve fitting that has no predictive power about the future.”

New Report Highlights Green Failure in Europe and Warns America

By Rick Whitbeck, Real Clear Energy, Jan 4, 2023

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2024/01/04/new_report_highlights_green_failure_in_europe_and_warns_america_1002859.html

“As one digests Rupert Darwall’s latest report for the RealClear Foundation, the well-known quote from Spanish philosopher George Santayana might ring through the mind: ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.’”

[SEPP Comment: See link above and This Week.]

Defending the Orthodoxy

What Is Climate Change?

UN Climate Action, Accessed Jan 3, 2024

https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/what-is-climate-change

“Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns.”

“We can pay the bill now or pay dearly in the future.”

The climate future arrived in 2023. It left scars across the planet.

The year will mark a point when humanity crossed into a new climate era — an age of “global boiling,” as the U.N. Secretary General called it.

By Chico Harlan, The Washington Post, Dec 31, 2023 [H/t John McClaughry]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/12/31/2023-record-heat-temperatures/?utm_campaign=wp_the7&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_the7

UN Puts “Climate Integrity” at the Heart of their 2024 Election Plan

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 5, 2024

[SEPP Comment: Does the UN have any integrity?]

Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science

The Year in Clean Energy: Wind, Solar and Batteries Grow Despite Economic Challenges

By Isabella O’Malley, et al, AP, Dec 29, 2023 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

[SEPP Comment: The economic challenge of hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies?]

Questioning the Orthodoxy

Watch: Morano on Fox & Friends presents the top 4 ‘climate hypocrites’ of 2023 – And the winner is…

Video, Via Climate Depot, Dec 30, 2023

How Does One-Third the CO2 Emissions Cause Three Times the Climate Damage?

By Marlow Lewis, National Review, Dec 29, 2023

Link to Report: Supplementary Material for the Regulatory Impact Analysis for the Final Rulemaking, “Standards of Performance for New, Reconstructed, and Modified Sources and Emissions Guidelines for Existing Sources: Oil and Natural Gas Sector Climate Review” EPA Report on the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases: Estimates Incorporating Recent Scientific Advances

By Staff, EAP, November 2023

“Don’t ask the EPA because they won’t tell.”

More Research Affirms The Human Role In Global Warming Has Been Strongly Overestimated

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Jan 4, 2023

Link to paper: From Behavioral Climate Models and Millennial Data to AGW Reassessment

By Philippe de Larminat, Earth & Environmental Science Research & Reviews, Mar 1, 2023

No Such Thing as a Low-Energy Rich Country

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 4, 2024

Today’s materialistic world cannot survive without crude oil

By Ronald Stein P.E., America Out Loud, Dec 31, 2023

The Climate Movement Suffered A Slew Of Defeats And Setbacks In 2023

By Nick Pope, Daily Caller, Jan 1, 2023 [H/t Bernie Kepshie]

https://dailycaller.com/2024/01/01/2023-setbacks-failures-climate-movement/

Climate Crimes And Misdemeanors

I & I Editorial Board Jan 5, 2024

Climate Fact Check: December 2023

By Steve Milloy, Junk Science.com, Jan 4, 2024

“Lack of Commitment” Threatens Europe’s Net Zero Progress

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 4, 2024

[SEPP Comment: See link under Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes.]

Tony Blair Institute calls for electric car road tax to avoid ‘gridlock Britain’

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 3, 2024

“It is becoming clearer by the day that the real intention of the likes of Tony Blair is to force millions out of their cars completely by making them unaffordable.”

After Paris!

COP29 Petrostate Climate Conference will be Held in Azerbaijan

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 5, 2023

Problems in the Orthodoxy

Consensus On Fighting Climate Change Is “Crumbling” Says EIKE President, Dr. Holger Thuss

By Holger Thuss, President of the European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE), Via P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 2, 2024

India Determined To Increase Coal Output

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 31, 2023

“It’s worth pointing out that China and India already account for 62% of world coal output. Add in Russia and Indonesia, neither of whom have any intention of abandoning coal, and the figure rises to 75%.”

[SEPP Comment: Graph from BP Energy Review showing in 2022 China’s coal production about 9 times that of the US and Europe. India now approaching two times US, and Indonesia exceeding US.]

Models v. Observations

61 NoTricksZone Articles On Studies, Datasets From 2023 Show Climate Models Are Rubbish

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Dec 31, 2023

Model Issues

Cyclone Jasper & BOM Forecasting – Getting to the Truth

By Jennifer Marohasy, He Blog, Jan 5, 2024

“Contrary to various popular claims, including by my colleague Peter Ridd*, the Bureau uses the same supercomputer and the same general circulation model to forecast rainfall whether considering the next three-hours, the next three months or the next three decades. It uses a simulation developed by the UK Met Office known as ACCESS-S2, that is also one of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s CMIP6 models.”

Measurement Issues — Surface

CET Daily Temperatures

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 3, 2024

“A predominance of warmer weather is not climate change.”

Rising Maximum Temperatures

By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Jan 5, 2024

“With the widespread introduction of MMTS and ASOS weather stations over time since 1980, which record instantaneous temperatures every minute with a 10 second response time, spurious instantaneous high temperatures can be recorded as Tmax driving up both the daily temperature average (Tavg) and the daily, weekly monthly and annual Tmax records.”

Missing Record Heat In New South Wales

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Jan 5, 2024

https://realclimatescience.com/2024/01/missing-record-heat-in-new-south-wales/#gsc.tab=0

“It was 125F (52C) at Bourke, NSW on January 3, 1909, but that date is missing from the NOAA GHCND database.”

Measurement Issues — Atmosphere

UAH Global Temperature Update for December 2023: +0.83 deg. C

By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Jan 3, 2024

Link to Global Temperature Report: December 2023

By John Christy, Roy Spencer, et al. Earth System Science Center, UAH, Jan 4, 2024

Maps: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2023/december2024/202312_Map.png

Dec 1978 to Dec 2023 Trend, (C°/Decade) Lower Troposphere: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2023/december2024/2023_Trend.png

Graph: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2023/december2024/202312_Bar.png

Text: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2023/december2024/GTR_202312DEC_v1.pdf

“And, as calendar year values go, 2023 was the warmest of the 45-year record with an average of +0.51 °C (+0.92 °F) outdoing 2016 which finished that year at +0.39 °C (+0.70 °F). This calendar year was also warmer than any other 12-month period which before 2023 was Dec 2015 to Nov 2016 at +0.41 °C (+0.73 °F). Because early 2023 was much cooler than now, we can expect further 12-month records over the next few months.

Changing Weather

No Trends In Extratropical Cyclones – IPCC

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 2, 2024

2023 Germany’s Warmest Year Ever Recorded Since 1881, Was Also Among The Wettest

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Dec 30, 2023

“There was 5% more sunshine than usual, at around 1,764 hours. Normal is 1665 hours (1991 – 2020 reference period). It was sunniest near the coast and in the south, with over 2,000 hours in some areas. In comparison, it remained cloudier in the low mountain ranges with around 1,600 hours.”

Christmas Day Storm Of 1997

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 1, 2024

The Boxing Day Storm of 1998

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 31, 2023

“What is particularly noteworthy is the run of successive Lows, each bringing wind and rain during the week. Nowadays we are told there is something unusual if we get a week of wet and windy weather!”

Hurricane Low Q–The Storm That Devastated Glasgow in 1968

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 2, 2024

Record Winds At Fraserburgh In 1989

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 5, 2024

Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice

Collapsing Antarctic Scare Narrative…4 NEW Papers Find Antarctic Ice Is MORE STABLE Than Thought

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 3, 2023

Link to one paper: Change in Antarctic ice shelf area from 2009 to 2019

By Julia R. Andreasen, et al., The Cryosphere, May 16, 2023

https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/2059/2023/

The Narrative That Polar Bears Need Sea Ice To Catch Prey Has Collapsed As More Evidence Piles Up

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Jan 1, 2023

Link to latest paper: Polar bear’s range dynamics and survival in the Holocene

By Heikki Seppä, et al., Quaternary Science Reviews, Oct 1, 2023

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379123003256

Polar bears and sea ice fail to implode in 2023 as predicted, with special thanks for your support

By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Dec 29, 2023

Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine

Climate change provokes urgent action on food systems everywhere- says Bill Gates

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 4, 2024

Homewood presents data: “Even in sub-Saharan Africa, where they claim that smallholder farmers are bearing the brunt of record high temperatures and extreme weather events, the value of agricultural output (at fixed prices) stood at a record high in 2021:

The threat to the world’s food supply does not come from climate change. The biggest threats are the selfish policies of Bill Gates and his elitist chums.”

Lowering Standards

Despite Heavy Rains, Flooding And Softened Dykes, German UFZ Insists Drought Persists!

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Dec 29, 2023

Climate Impacts? Aussie Emergency Minister Slams Storm Warning Failures

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 2, 2024

“Perhaps the BoM knew the storm was coming, but during the holiday season BoM staff monitoring the weather had trouble finding a manager to sign off on issuing the storm alert?”

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?

Fastest, hottest rate of warming for “millions of years”

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 2, 2024

“Hottest in 125,000 years say EU scientists — as if Cavemen could measure the temperature to a tenth of a degree.”

Data Falsifies ABC News’ Claim that 2023 Displayed Dangerous Heat Trends

By Linnea Lueken, Climate Realism, Jan 2, 2024

Storm Henk

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 5, 2024

“Siberia is heating up around twice as quickly as other parts of the world.”

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Jan 4, 2024

https://realclimatescience.com/2024/01/siberia-is-heating-up-around-twice-as-quickly-as-other-parts-of-the-world/#gsc.tab=0

Washington Post: “Siberia is heating up around twice as quickly as other parts of the world.  European researchers have warned that as the ground continues to thaw, ancient viruses may emerge.”

Heller: It is MINUS 64F in Siberia (-53C) [Jan 4. 2024 reading.]

Why Fake News About Climate Change Is Still So Effective

“It’s a lot easier and cheaper to push doubt than to push certainty.”

By Kate Yoder, Morther Jones, Dec 24, 2023

“Conspiracies are thriving online, according to a report by the coalition Climate Action Against Disinformation released last month, in time for the U.N. climate conference in Dubai. … Oil companies including Shell, ExxonMobil, and BP spent about $4 million to $5 million on Facebook ads related to social issues and politics this year, according to the Climate Action Against Disinformation report.”

Speaker on BBC Verify Correspondent’s Six Month Sabbatical Course Has Called for Jailing Climate Contrarians

By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, Jan 1, 2024

Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?

Al Gore follows history of wrong climate predictions with dire new warning

‘We still have the ability to seize control of our destiny’

By Bob Unruh, WND, Jan 1, 2024

German Prof On German Floods: “Difference Between Facts And Political Narratives Is Breathtaking.”

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 5, 2023

Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.

Bangladesh sees dramatic rise in lightning deaths linked to climate change-BBC

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 5, 2024

Link to: BBC Claims Climate Change is Behind Increased Lightning Deaths in Bangladesh – But It’s Utter Nonsense

By David Hansard, The Daily Sceptic, Jan 4, 2024

“It claimed that a big increase in deaths from lightning strikes in Bangladesh is linked to climate change – the story is unambiguously headed ‘Bangladesh sees dramatic rise in lightning deaths linked to climate change’ – because in recent years there have been more thunderstorms. Yet, on the contrary, data show that in the years when deaths greatly increased, there was not an increase in thunderstorms.”

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda

January 3 Bipolar Disorder

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Jan 4, 2024

https://realclimatescience.com/2024/01/january-3-bipolar-disorder/#gsc.tab=0

Video: “Climate scientists are very resourceful, using their old global cooling diagrams to explain global warming.”

Is Scotland’s climate really in the midst of breakdown?

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 30, 2023

Questioning European Green

Viking Link Won’t Enhance Energy Security

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 31, 2023

“The National Grid have proudly announced the launch of the Viking Link, which will send electricity to and fro between here and Denmark:”

“What power we can manage to get hold of at times of low wind will be astronomically expensive. And if we try to export our surplus wind at times of glut, it will be at a loss, which the public will ultimately pay for.

No doubt it will be a nice little earner for the National Grid. But it the public who will have to pick up the bill!”

Army Shun Heat Pumps In Favour Of £20,000 Electric Boilers!

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 31, 2023

“At least they’ve the good sense to recognise that heat pumps are totally unfit for purpose. But a solution that costs £20,000 plus £5000 installation is hardly any better.

As for the claim that it is cheaper to run than a gas boiler, they are gaslighting. Electricity prices are about four times those of gas, and there are no efficiency savings with a Cylo, which also cannot provide hot water, meaning yet more costs.”

Questioning Green Elsewhere

Australia is becoming green, powerless and defenseless

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 6, 2024

Green Jobs

Elon Musk’s Chinese rival toppled Tesla – now it’s coming for Britain

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 4, 2024

“In August, Wang [founder of BYD Co.] said the company would help “demolish the old [Western] legends and achieve new, world-class brands”. Its aggressively priced electric vehicles are gradually appearing on British and European streets.”

Funding Issues

Green Billionaires Fund Large Backbench Tory Net Zero Parliamentary Caucus

By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, Jan 3, 2024 [H/t Paul Homewood]

“Almost half the Conservative Party’s backbench MPs in the British Parliament belong to a Caucus promoting extreme Net Zero ideas that is funded by a small group of green billionaire foundations. The Conservative Environment Network (CEN), which acts mostly as a lobby group, receives over 80% of its funding from the European Climate Foundation, Rockefeller Philanthropy Advisers, Oak Foundation, WWF-UK and Clean Air Fund.”

The Political Games Continue

Left-wing climate group is quietly training judges how to handle global warming cases

Group is ‘preparing the bench to understand the science and ensure justice in the new legal environment’

By Thomas Catenacci Fox News, Jan 1, 2024

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/left-wing-climate-group-quietly-training-judges-handling-global-warming-cases

Litigation Issues

Judge Denies U.S. Department of Justice’s Motions to Dismiss and for Early Appeal in Children’s Constitutional Climate Lawsuit Juliana v. Unites States

By Staff, Our Children’s Trust, Dec 31, 2023 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

[U.S. District Court Judge Ann] “Aiken’s opinion i included such statements as: “This catastrophe is the great emergency of our time and compels urgent action. As this lawsuit demonstrates, young people—too young to vote and effect change through the political process—are exercising the institutional procedure available to plead with their government to change course.” [Boldface added]

Federal Court Deals Knockout Punch To Blue City’s Biden-Backed Effort To Ban Gas Stoves

By Nick Pope, Daily Caller, Jan 3, 2024

https://dailycaller.com/2024/01/03/appellate-court-biden-blue-city-ban-gas-stoves/

Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes

America’s plan to replace gas guzzlers with electric cars was doomed from the start

By Paris Max, Business Insider, Accessed Jan 5, 2024]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/americas-plan-to-replace-gas-guzzlers-with-electric-cars-was-doomed-from-the-start/ar-AA1moUZR#image=AA1jcuWY|1

“The shift from gas-powered cars to electric vehicles is an opportunity to rethink how Americans get from place to place. But so far the US government, carmakers, and consumers have been pursuing a small-minded swap that lacks the necessary ambition.”

[SEPP Comment: What ambition? Authoritarian government? The author cites the Norway model with incredibly high tariffs on automobiles and huge subsidies for electric vehicles.]

Subsidies and Mandates Forever

The $7,500 tax credit for electric cars has some big changes in 2024. What to know

By Camila Domonoske, NPR, Jan 2, 2024

https://www.npr.org/2023/12/28/1219158071/ev-electric-vehicles-tax-credit-car-shopping-tesla-ford-vw-gm

“If you run a business, you may be interested in the separate commercial tax credit for EVs, which provides up to

Energy Issues – Non-US

Cheap Renewables? British OFGEN Issues 48 Hour Price Hike Warning

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 31, 2023

“Households have been issued an urgent 48-hour warning to submit meter readings ahead of a £94 increase to the average home energy bill, which is due to come into effect on 1 January.”

Energy Issues – Australia

Australian government is coming for your Utes, SUVs and cheap fuel

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Dec 30, 2023

Energy Issues — US

Appreciating the Master Resource (Part II: Energy Foes Agree!)

By Robert Bradley Jr, Master Resource, Jan 3, 2023

Link to Part I linked.

A Year Of Energy Headlines

Michael Lynch, Forbes, Dec 29, 2023

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellynch/2023/12/29/a-year-of-energy-headlines/?sh=3082a42e15e2

Washington’s Control of Energy

Sorry President Biden, But Nobody Wants a Glorified Golf Cart

“I’m just here for the gasoline.” Mad Max 2

By Duggan Flanakin, Real Clear Energy, Jan 03, 2024

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2024/01/03/sorry_president_biden_but_nobody_wants_a_glorified_golf_cart_1002519.html

Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?

U.S. Shale Growth Could Exceed Forecasts in 2024

By Tsvetana Paraskova, Oil Price.com, Dec 27, 2023

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Shale-Growth-Could-Exceed-Forecasts-in-2024.html

Return of King Coal?

Coal’s Life-Saving Role Ignored By Climate-Obsessed Media

By Vijay Jayaraj, Real Clear Energy, Jan 4, 2023

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2024/01/04/coals_life-saving_role_ignored_by_climate-obsessed_media_1002870.html

Coal: The climate scourge we can’t quit

By Mark Gongloff, The Seattle Times, Dec 27, 2023

https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/coal-the-climate-scourge-we-cant-quit/

“Coal is humanity’s biggest greenhouse gas polluter, churning out 40% of all energy-related emissions.”

[SEPP Comment: Not mentioned is that this “pollution” gives life to green living things.]

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind

Developers Cancel Huge Offshore Wind Contract In Latest Blow To Biden’s Climate Agenda

By Nick Pope, The Daily Caller, Jan 3, 2024

https://dailycaller.com/2024/01/03/developers-cancel-offshore-wind-contract-blow-biden-agenda/

Contrary to politicians’ claims, offshore wind farms don’t kill whales. Here’s what to know.

By Chrstina Larson, et al., AP, Dec 23, 2023 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://apnews.com/article/offshore-wind-whales-deaths-trump-5158af7f5bf0f5ef9e1530564ff791a9

[SEPP Comment: Evidence of what is killing Right Whales is weak, Fin Whales further offshore are thriving.]

Building offshore wind farms can permanently deafen porpoises, but it’s OK now with Bubble Walls

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 4, 2024

Wind turbines kill too many birds and bats. How can we make them safer?

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 4, 2024

Pennsylvania hits solar energy milestone: advocates say there’s much more to do

By Rachel McDevitt, State Impact, NPR, Dec 29, 2023

https://stateimpact.npr.org/pennsylvania/2023/12/29/pennsylvania-hits-solar-energy-milestone-advocates-say-theres-much-more-to-do/

“Pennsylvania now has 1 gigawatt of solar energy capacity–enough to power all the homes in a city as big as Pittsburgh.”

[SEPP Comment: For a few hours around noon and with what at night?]

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other

While geothermal may provide reliable energy, economic limits hinder its potential, expert says

“Most parts of the world, the crust, you really have to go something like 30,000 or 40,000 feet, which is not economical,” Dr. Iraj Ershaghi, director of the Petroleum Engineering Program at University of Southern California, said.

By Kevin Killough, Just the News, Dec 29, 2023 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/energy/while-geothermal-can-provide-reliable-energy-economics-limit-its-potential?utm_source=daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles

EV Struggles: Front Page News

By Allen Brooks, Masster Resource, Jan 4, 2024

“The math doesn’t work, and consumers are concluding hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) better meet their driving needs.”

EV Share Of Sales Slump In 2023

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 5, 2024

Electric car drivers face £500 hit as insurance and tax bills rise

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 4, 2024

When you sit in a “digital car” you consent to being recorded and personal data sold

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 3, 2024

Cargo ship carrying burning lithium-ion batteries reaches Alaska, but kept offshore for safety

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 31, 2023

Are EV Fires Stories Being Covered Up?

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 1, 2024

“For some reason, there seems to be no record or news at all of this locally. The South Yorkshire Fire Service keep a daily log of all incidents they have been called to, even down to wheelie bin fires. Yet they have no record at all of this fire. I have requested any information they have, but they have so far not responded.”

California Dreaming

Oil Giant’s Massive Impairment Could Be The Latest Sign Of Trouble For California’s Economy, Experts Say

By Nick Pope, Daily Caller, Jan 1, 2024

https://dailycaller.com/2024/01/02/chevron-impairment-california/

“Chevron announced Tuesday that it is anticipating up to $4 billion in asset value reductions for its 2023 fourth quarter results, a development which the firm attributes in part to California’s robust environmental regulatory structure, according to a regulatory filing.”

Other News that May Be of Interest

Dealing with Aircraft Turbulence

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Dec 31, 2023

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/12/dealing-with-aircraft-turbulence.html

BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE

Homeland Security Secretary Mayorkas Blames Climate Change for US Border Failure

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 4, 2024

Bridging the Green Energy Gender Gap

By Felicity Bradstock, Oil Price.com, Dec 27, 2023

https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/Bridging-the-Geen-Energy-Gender-Gap.html

Navajo Nation president asks NASA to delay Moon launch over possible human remains

By KNAU News, Dec 28, 2023 [H/t WUWT]

https://www.knau.org/knau-and-arizona-news/2023-12-28/navajo-nation-president-asks-nasa-to-delay-moon-launch-over-possible-human-remains

“Nygren wants the launch delayed and the tribe consulted immediately. He noted the Moon is sacred to numerous Indigenous cultures and that depositing human remains on it is ‘tantamount to desecration.’”

ARTICLES

1. Biden Tempts Judicial Fate With ‘Whole of Government’ Plans

Without congressional approval, many of the administration’s efforts violate the law.

By Dave Yost, WSJ, Jan 3, 2024

https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-tempts-judicial-fate-with-whole-of-government-plans-2a1ad927?mod=commentary_more_article_pos12

TWTW Summary: Key parts in the This Week section above.

******************

2. The Penalty for Opposing Global Warmists

A whistle-blower says he was told to keep quiet about the cost of carbon policies.

By James Freeman, WSJ, Dec. 29, 2023

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-penalty-for-opposing-global-warmists-8c05728c?mod=hp_opin_pos_4#cxrecs_s

TWTW Summary: The key sentence is: “Mike Faulk, a spokesperson for Gov. Inslee’s office… said Smith’s claims of being told to ‘jimmy the numbers’ are being looked into.”

******************

3. A $3 Trillion Burden

Biden regulators spew out red tape at a historic pace.

By James Freeman, WSJ, Jan 2, 2023

https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-3trillion-burden-f57fc95e?mod=hp_opin_pos_5#cxrecs_s

TWTW Summary: The article begins:

“A year ago this column wasn’t buying Wall Street predictions of recession in 2023, but did suggest a proven method for President Joe Biden to encourage prosperity—and get himself re-elected. The idea was to move Bidenomics in the direction of Reaganomics by agreeing with congressional Republicans to reduce the burden of federal regulation. Sadly Mr. Biden did the opposite. His administrative agencies have been historically busy over the past 12 months, churning out new directives across the U.S. economy. It now appears that even before their year of frenzied rule-making, the overall cost of federal regulation was much greater than previously reported.

Wayne Crews writes in Forbes on the Washington bureaucracy’s roster of new and proposed commandments:

The Federal Register, the daily depository of rules and regulations, wrapped up 2023 with 90,402 pages. That happens to be the second-highest tally of all time.

Mr. Crews adds that this blazing pace of regulating falls behind only ‘Barack Obama’s all-time record-setting 95,894 pages.’ Let’s hope that Mr. Biden doesn’t view this as an Obama achievement he must try to exceed.

Of course, some new bureaucratic diktats inflict more pain on the citizenry than others. But it’s the overall impact of all new and existing rules that is economically excruciating, especially for small businesses.

Economists Nicole Crain and Mark Crain recently reported in a study for the National Association of Manufacturers: https://nam.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/NAM-3731-Crains-Study-R3-V2-FIN.pdf

‘U.S. federal government regulations cost an estimated $3.079 trillion in 2022 (in 2023 dollars), an amount equal to 12% of U.S. GDP. These costs fall unevenly on the major sectors of the economy and on firms of different sizes; the findings indicate that compliance costs fall disproportionately on small businesses…

Considering all federal regulations, all sectors of the U.S. economy and all firm sizes, federal regulations cost an estimated $12,800 per employee per year in 2022 (in 2023 dollars). Small firms with fewer than 50 employees incur regulatory costs of $14,700 per employee per year – 20% greater than the cost per employee in large firms ($12,200). These estimates are consistent with prior studies, which indicate that the cost of regulatory compliance disproportionately affects small firms.’”

5 4 votes
Article Rating
8 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
dickstormprobizblog and dickstormenergyelectricity.org
January 10, 2024 2:21 am

An outstanding summary. Happy New Year and I wish you much success in reaching the general public in 2024 to counter the indoctrination. The indoctrination will be hard to overcome, I promise to do my humble and small part compared to what Anthony Watts and Ken Haapala do. Please know, your work is appreciated. Dick Storm

strativarius
January 10, 2024 3:35 am

““No statement should be believed…””

Unless or until it has been evaluated as ‘narrative compliant‘. If you have any questions on narrative compliance policies please forward them to Marianna Spring c/o the British Broadcasting Corporation.

The best loony headline of the week – so far….

“War gave us the Red Cross. Now climate disaster means we need a Green Cross too”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/jan/09/war-red-cross-green-climate-disasters

If only they were a little older and wiser at the Graun….  The Green Cross Code was created by the National Road Safety Committee (now the Royal Society for the Prevention of Accidents, RoSPA) to raise awareness of pedestrian road safety in the United Kingdom. And it was aimed at primarily children. 

I suppose the Graun gets the children bit?

Ireneusz Palmowski
January 10, 2024 4:25 am

Over the next few days, the polar vortex in the lower stratosphere will completely split into two vortices, the stronger of which will be over Siberia.
comment image
comment image

strativarius
January 10, 2024 4:33 am

Have you heard of the (UK) Conservative Environment Network (CEN)? Well, one of its leading lights – Chris Skidmore – recently threw a hissy fit at the Offshore Petroleum Licensing Bill, resigning his seat a few months ahead of an election.

What is important to a Conservative MP who is a member of CEN?

“A contemporary of Liz Truss at Oxford, he was once an ardent free marketeer who fulminated against crony capitalists. As recently as 2012, he co-authored Britannia Unchained with Priti Patel, Dominic Raab, Kwasi Kwarteng and Truss. This was a stirring call for deregulation and growth. Today, he acts as a Gauleiter of the powerful environmental lobby. He represents vested interests that depend entirely on environmental regulations and taxpayer-funded subsidies. At some point in his career, Skidmore seemingly heard a higher calling.
As a backbencher, he was a keen member of the Conservative Environment Network (CEN). According to the CEN manifesto, an MP’s primary duty is not to serve the voters who elected him or her. Nor is it to serve the poorest and most vulnerable. Nor even is it to further human flourishing by promoting freedom, opportunity and abundance. Instead, as CEN’s first pledge has it, it is MPs’ ‘duty to preserve and restore our planet for future generations’. “

The CEN caucus is not a grassroots organisation dependent on member contributions. It lists 13 staff and acknowledges the support of ‘a network of private donors… and foundations’. Among these are Chris Hohn’s Children’s Investment Fund Foundation (via the European Climate Fund), Rockefeller Philanthropy Advisors and WWF UK. Hohn, who earns £1million per day from his hedge fund, initially helped fund Extinction Rebellion. The same people and organisations are currently funding a network of political consultants to encourage extreme green policies at the local level, against the wishes of voters. In post-democracy environmentalism, it is billionaires, NGOs and technocrats who set the policy agenda, not voters or elected representatives. And their ambitions extend to changing every aspect of our lives.”
https://www.spiked-online.com/2024/01/10/chris-skidmore-and-the-scourge-of-the-tory-eco-zealots/

Next up…. Davos.

January 10, 2024 5:39 am

“This TWTW announces the awardees of the 2023 Frederick Seitz Memorial Award.”

Of course this will never be mentioned in the MSM.

January 10, 2024 6:55 am

DEEP OCEAN VOLCANOS CAUSE CONTINUOUS, PERIODIC GLOBAL WARMING BY EL NINOs
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/natural-forces-cause-periodic-global-warming
.
EXCERPT
.
Explanation by IPCC, Fact Checkers, etc.
.
The IPCC, etc., attributes these phenomena to global warming due to CO2 emissions.
The phenomena are broadcast in a scare-mongering manner by the lapdog mass-Media to the kept-ignorant general population, as:
.
1) Proof “Net Zero by 2050” is needed, no matter what the $trillions of costs, and
.
2) The use of evil fossil fuels should be ended ASAP, to reduce CO2 emissions, no matter what the adverse impact on standards of living of 8 billion people.
.
However, the reality is as described above, but “Fact Checkers” do not take note of observations and objective measurements being facts, especially if those facts interfere with/detract from “their established climate science”.
.
They prefer to stick to IPCC-approved subjective, computer-model, air temperature predictions, that always read much higher compared to data objectively measured by satellites, and predominately blame climate change on fossil CO2, because “the science is settled”.
.
However, they were proven completely wrong, because the volcanic eruptions are clearly linked to a trigger by the moon.
.
The Role of Judges: Even worse than “Fact Checkers” are the judges in European countries, who are largely ignorant of science. 
.
They are including “their truth” in judgments and ignoring causality.
.
That is a very disturbing and destructive, far-reaching development, much more difficult to undo (after all, a judgment is forever and final) than a law in a parliament, which can be changed or cancelled.
.
Spreading disinformation by judges is not a task for judges, who avoid their responsibility through immunity. 
.
This becomes extremely dangerous and makes society vulnerable to unresolved discord and instability.
.
A Simplified Calculation to Put Matters in Perspective
.
This study shows, based on UAH satellite measurements started in 1979, lower-atmosphere temperatures have been increasing, step-by-step, and are pre-dominantly due to El Niños, and their after effects.
.
The sun and moon and tectonic plate movement are driving forces of El Niños.
We must adhere to the golden rule of causality of real science: observe, measure and repeat.
.
In reality, CO2 does not play the slightest role here.
.
The IPCC climate models are based on political pseudo-science and are therefore worthless.
.
From Image 7, it can be concluded, a very strong El Niño produces a lower atmosphere temperature jump across the entire Earth of approximately 0.3 C.
.
E = K x T^4, where K = 5.670367 x 10^-8 is the Stefan-Boltzmann constant
.
Taking the derivative delivers:
dE= 4 x K x T^3 x dT = 4 x 5.670367^-8 x 288^3 x 0.3 = 1.625 W/m2
.
If the Earth were to absorb this energy flux as radiation, the Stefan-Boltzmann equation indicates, this corresponds to a radiation effect of 1.625 W/m².
Watt = Joule/second
.
That is 829 TW for the total earth surface of 510,100,000 km², or an annual energy production of 26,143 EJ (Exajoules).
.
Annual human primary energy production for all uses was estimated at about 557 EJ
For perspective,
.
1) The annual human CO2 emissions, plus some other IPCC factors, increased the temperature of the lower atmosphere by 0.5 C , in 45 years, or 0.011 C/y, as objectively measured by satellites. That value includes periodic El Niño warming effects, because they were ongoing during these 45 years!. See Image 7
.
2) An El Niño (weak to very strong) occurs, on average, every 3.6 years. See Image 1
.
3) A weak to moderate El Nino contributes significantly more warming to the lower atmosphere than 1) the annual human primary energy production and its consumption, plus 2) any atmospheric warming by associated CO2 emissions. See Image 9
.
4) A very strong El Niño contributes warming to the lower atmosphere 26143/557 = 47 times greater than the annual human primary energy production and its consumption, plus 2) any atmospheric warming by associated CO2 emissions.
.
Conclusion 

The impact of human CO2 emissions from annual primary energy on Earth’s temperature is extremely small.
.
It compares to just one of the many active volcanic, submarine hot spots (weak to very strong), estimated at 5,000 in the world, of which the El Niño heat source often is a strong one. See Image 1
.
It is completely self-destructive for the Western world to impose restrictions on CO2 emissions that have only a small, not even marginal impact, on world atmospheric temperatures, as accurately measured by satellites 
.
The human primary energy CO2 emissions are completely insignificant compared to the external thermal influences to which the earth is subjected.
.
All politicians and activists have been warned: the earth, moon, sun and celestial bodies will never listen to capricious rules and legislation imposed by them on the earth’s inhabitants.

January 10, 2024 7:50 am

WORLD’s LARGEST OFFSHORE WIND SYSTEM DEVELOPER ABANDONS TWO MAJOR US PROJECTS AS WIND BUST CONTINUES  
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/world-s-largest-offshore-wind-system-developer-abandons-two-major
.
EXCERPT:
.
MORE CANCELLATIONS ARE COMING
.
New York State had signed contracts with EU big wind companies for four offshore wind projects
.
Sometime later, the companies were trying to coerce an additional $25.35 billion (per Wind Watch) from New York ratepayers and taxpayers over at least 20 years, because they had bid at lower prices than they should have.
.
New York State denied the request on October 12, 2023; “a deal is a deal”, said the Commissioner 

Owners want a return on investment of at least 10%/y, if bank loans for risky projects are 6.5%/y, and project cost inflation and uncertainties are high 
.
The about 3.5% is a minimum for all the years of hassles of designing, building, erecting, and paperwork of a project
.
The project prices, with no subsidies, would be about two times the agreed contract price, paid by Utilities to owners. That means, the effect of subsidies reduced the contract price by 50%.
.
All contractors had bid too low. When they realized there would be huge losses, they asked for higher contract prices.
.
It looks like the contract prices will need to be at least $150/MWh, for contractors to make money.
Those contract prices would be at least 60% higher than in 2021
.
Oersted, Denmark, Sunrise wind, contract price $110.37/MWh, contractor needs $139.99/MWh, a 27% increase
Equinor, Norway, Empire 1 wind, contract price $118.38/MWh, contractor needs $159.64/MWh, a 35% increase
Equinor, Norway, Empire 2 wind, contract price $107.50/MWh, contractor needs $177.84/MWh, a 66% increase
Equinor, Norway, Beacon Wind, contract price $118.00/MWh, contractor needs $190.82/MWh, a 62% increase
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/liars-lies-exposed-as-wind-electricity-price-increases-by-66-wake
.
NOTE: Empire Wind 2, 1260 MW, near Long- Island, was cancelled.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/equinor-bp-cancel-contract-sell-offshore-wind-power-new-york-2024-01-03/

.Offshore Cancellations in Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island
.
BP (BP.L) and Oersted (ORSTED.CO) have announced hefty writedowns , and US offshore project cancellations, in recent days, in the face of high inflation, high interest rates, and lack of the timely availability of specialized ships.
.
In Rhode Island, in March 2023, a procurement for offshore wind drew only one bidder – an 884 MW proposal from Eversource and Ørsted.
.
In August, Ørsted CEO Mads Nipper warned the company could walk away from unprofitable projects in the US amid the turbulence in pricing and supply chain issues.
.
Avangrid, a Spanish company, in September 2022, walked away from its 804 MW Park City wind project, planned for off the coast of Martha’s Vineyard. It was no longer feasible at the 2019 contract price agreed with Connecticut.
.
At the time, the company said, inflation, higher interest rates and supply chain issues made the agreed price of $79.83 per MWh unprofitable.
.
In July 2023, Avangrid also walked away from its 1200 MW Commonwealth Wind project for Massachusetts.
.
The two projects became so unprofitable, it made better financial sense for Avangrid to pay $48, Massachusetts + $16, Connecticut = $64 million in walk-away penalties, rather than face much higher costs for building the project, with no prospect of a profit. 
.
SHELL: LONDON, Nov 2 (Reuters) – Shell’s CFO said on Thursday, the firm had abandoned a power purchase agreement (PPA), at contract price of $76.73/MWh, for the planned 2400 MW South Coast offshore wind project, off the coast of Massachusetts, agreeing to pay a $60 million walk-away penalty, rather than face much higher costs for building the project, with no prospect of a profit. 
https://ctexaminer.com/2023/10/03/avangrid-cancels-park-city-wind-contract-pays-state-16m-penalty/#:~:text=Avangrid%20agreed%20in%20July%20to,1%2C200%20MW%20Commonwealth%20Wind%20project

Connecticut’s New London Pier; a Hub for Pre-Assembly/Staging Construction
https://revolution-wind.com/state-pier#:~:text=As%20a%20staging%20and%20assembly,be%20created%20at%20the%20site.
.
New London Pier will be a hub for pre-assembly/staging of construction of offshore wind projects.
.
Launched in 2020, the original cost was estimated at $93 million, with $75 million from “private sources”
.
That estimate turned out to be very much “off the mark”, largely because existing concrete piers and deteriorating woodpile foundations had to be removed
.
At present, the cost has become $309 million, and counting
.
Sources of Funds, thus far:
.
Private sources, about $100 million, includes Ørsted and Eversource, $77.5 million
Misc. Connecticut state funds, from taxpayers, $89 million
Connecticut Bond Commission, ultimately paid by taxpayers, $50 million
Connecticut Port Authority municipal bond Issuances, ultimately paid by taxpayers $63 million
US Dept. of Transportation, from taxpayers $7 million
Total, $309 million
.
Recently, the first barge was loaded with 3 blades, a nacelle (the Greyhound-bus-size box at the top), and 4 tower sections for erecting one wind turbine of the South Fork Wind project 

Ireneusz Palmowski
January 11, 2024 3:03 am

Still rainfall in Australia. Tropical depression (tropical low) in the north.
comment image