The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) new designation of copper as a critical material follows the lead of the EU, China, Japan, and others in labeling the metal as critical – and shows copper is on the cusp of a generational shift from an everyday material to a geopolitically significant commodity.
This new strategic importance stems from copper’s criticality to a wide range of clean and renewable energy technologies, such as waste heat recovery and electric vehicles, which can reduce global GHG emissions by two-thirds. As a result, experts estimate copper demand is set to double between 2035 and 2050 as industries work to meet their climate goals.
It is no wonder, then, that some are referring to copper as “the new oil.”
[…]
The shift from a global economy built entirely on oil to a digitized and electrified future, with copper at its foundation, has already begun. If Washington wants the U.S. to lead this global shift, it must recognize copper as a critical material for the nation’s future economic and national security.
Andy Kireta, Jr., is the President and CEO of the Copper Development Association and the North American Regional Director of the International Copper Association.
The notion that we are transitioning from fossil fuels to an electrified future is nonsense. However, technological advances and government policies are increasing the demand for many mineral resources. This is having an effect on the mineral resource criticality matrix. Non-critical mineral resources are shifting towards becoming critical materials.
The Energy Act of 2020 defines a “critical material” as:
Any non-fuel mineral, element, substance, or material that the Secretary of Energy determines: (i) has a high risk of supply chain disruption; and (ii) serves an essential function in one or more energy technologies, including technologies that produce, transmit, store, and conserve energy; or
The Energy Act of 2020 defines a “critical mineral” as:
Any mineral, element, substance, or material designated as critical by the Secretary of the Interior, acting through the Director of the U.S. Geological Survey.
The US DOE’s 2023 critical materials report is an odd combination of wishful thinking and reality checks.
Wishful Thinking
Executive Summary
The global effort to curb carbon emissions is accelerating demand for clean energy technologies and the materials they rely on. Demand for these materials will only continue to grow, especially as some nations aim to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. While some major materials like steel, copper, and aluminum are already powering the fossil fuel economy, others are more minor materials with potential supply risks. These risks could jeopardize the ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions within the desirable timeframe to avoid significant climate change. In some cases, it may be necessary to take action to improve the resilience of these material supply chains and mitigate supply risks. Understanding the importance of individual materials to clean energy and the supply risks associated with them is necessary to identifying which materials may serve as potential roadblocks to a clean energy future.
Pretty well all of the assessed individual materials face roadblocks, irrespective of the government’s clean energy wishes.
Reality Checks
The report assesses the supply of critical materials under four scenarios:
Demand trajectories were developed for each material that passed the screening in Chapter 3. For each material, four trajectories were developed using high and low market penetration and material intensity assumptions for different energy technologies/applications, shown in Table 4.1. The goal of these trajectories is not to predict the future, but to outline various possibilities of material demand that can inform RD&D strategies.
DOE forecasts that the demand for copper for uses other than energy (gray curve) will exceed current production by 2035. They forecast that copper demand will exceed current production capacity by the end of this decade.
DOE forecasts that cobalt demand will exceed production capacity by 2025 in three of the four trajectories. Cobalt is a key ingredient in long-range electric vehicle batteries.
The demand for almost all of the assessed materials quickly exceeds production capacity in almost all of the scenarios.
You Can’t Get There From Here
Identified world terrestrial cobalt resources are about 25 million tons. The vast majority of these resources are in sediment-hosted stratiform copper deposits in Congo (Kinshasa) and Zambia; nickel-bearing laterite deposits in Australia and nearby island countries and Cuba; and magmatic nickel-copper sulfide deposits hosted in mafic and ultramafic rocks in Australia, Canada, Russia, and the United States. More than 120 million tons of cobalt resources have been identified in polymetallic nodules and crusts on the floor of the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans.
The USGS estimates the current global cobalt reserves to be 8,300,000 tonnes. Trajectory D would burn through the global cobalt reserves by the end of this decade. At the 2035 rate of 2,700,000 tonnes/year, Trajectory D would eat up the entire terrestrial resource in less than a decade.
Although the nodules appear in various places around the deep ocean, the primary target of potential mining is the Pacific’s Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ), a 5,000-kilometer stretch of seafloor between Hawaii and California that extends 4,000–5,500 meters deep. The CCZ hosts trillions of mineral-rich nodules.
The Clarion-Clipperton Zone spans approximately 4,500,000 square kilometers. Credit: Horizon, CC BY 4.0
Reaching the nodules involves a three-stage process: First, a support ship lowers a remotely operated vehicle to the seafloor. Next, the vehicle—like a Roomba vacuum for seafloor mining—drives around through the soft sediments scooping up nodules. Last, a large pipe sucks the nodules to the ship above. Cobalt, copper, iron, manganese, and nickel can then be extracted from the nodules during onshore processing and refining.
A dozen European and Asian countries and several island nations have sponsored companies for exploration permits so far. The United States cannot apply for permitting through ISA because it has not ratified the treaty that presides over it, the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea. However, a subsidiary of the U.K. arm of the American company Lockheed Martin, UK Seabed Resources, has two permits for exploratory mining.
No need to worry about environmental issues… Wink, wink, nudge, nudge. I wonder how many opponents of offshore oil & gas drilling will be all for deep-sea mining?
Are You Psyched Up for Asteroid Mining?
Opportunities in Asteroid Mining
Generally, asteroid mining remains hypothetical, mostly because of its exorbitant cost. While specific estimates of the cost of commercial mining remain unclear, similarities can be drawn between such programs and NASA’s OSIRIS-REx mission, which seeks to obtain samples from a near-earth asteroid named Bennu. Despite only being projected to return between 400 grams and 1 kilogram of material, the mission is projected to take 7 years and cost over US$1 billion. Planetary Resources and Deep Space Industries were unable to finance themselves to meet such high development costs. Both companies were acquired by other businesses in 2018 and 2019, respectively.
Despite the high price tag, the development of asteroid mining technology may very well be a worthwhile endeavor due to the extremely valuable resources that asteroids have to offer. For example, Asterank, which measures the potential value of over 6,000 asteroids that NASA currently tracks, has determined that mining just the top 10 most cost-effective asteroids–that is, those that are both closest to Earth and greatest in value–would produce a profit of around US$1.5 trillion. There is also great potential for further expansion. One asteroid, 16 Psyche, has been reported to contain US$700 quintillion worth of gold, enough for every person on earth to receive about US$93 billion.
Texas has seen a host of oil and gas related records recently, the Texas Oil & Gas Association’s (TXOGA) latest monthly energy economic analysis, which is prepared by the organization’s Chief Economist Dean Foreman, pointed out.
In the analysis, TXOGA estimated that, for the month of September, Texas saw its highest crude oil production rate ever, at 5.9 million barrels per day, and its highest natural gas production gross withdrawal figure ever, at 34.6 billion cubic feet per day.
Kireta, A. (2023, October 18). Copper Is Critical for America’s New Energy Economy. RealClearEnergy. https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/10/18/doe_is_right_copper_is_critical_for_americas_new_energy_economy_986948.html
U.S. Department of Energy, Critical Materials Assessment (2023). Retrieved October 19, 2023, from https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2023-07/doe-critical-material-assessment_07312023.pdf.
Yarlagadda, S. (2022, April 8). Economics of the Stars: The future of asteroid mining and the global economy. Harvard International Review. https://hir.harvard.edu/economics-of-the-stars/
Since Mr. Middleton’d very appropriate reply will likely go over your head let me give you a very short, very simplified, answer why there is a disdain for your ignorant comment:
The components in oil that can be used for products like plastics, fertilizers, roads, etc., are not good fuels. The components in oil used for fuels are not good for making other products. Essentially, if you use oil solely for making ‘stuff’, the components we use for fuels become waste products. What do you suggest we do with millions of gallons of it if we can’t burn it since we can’t use it for other things?
A conflict similar to the following: the Green Blob wants giant solar “farms”- but they also want no tree cutting- but many of these “farms” are going to require deforestation.
Regarding mining- how about those gigantic mining machines- the shovels and trucks. Are they going to run on solar/wind energy- or “clean hydrogen”?
Lots of talk about big green machines- and demonstrations- not too many currently being used. We’ll have to see. It’s still hard to believe that battery-electric engines can run those gigantic machines for a full day’s work So as of now it’s still in the fantasy stage, like net zero. These machines are so expensive they’ll need to be used most days. If there’s any delay in charging them- the cost of not using them will be huge.
An actual reading of the articles: Looks like there’s one prototype large mining truck.
November 22, 2022
[…]
IRVING, Texas – Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) announced today a successful demonstration of its first battery electric 793 large mining truck and a significant investment to transform its Arizona-based proving ground into a sustainable testing and validation hub of the future.
And the second time it runs out of juice 1/2 way between the bottom of the pit to the top, they’ll either be replaced by the mothballed diesel ones parked Outback…or they’ll be recharging them at the top after every trip down and costs will skyrocket.
That’s OK, we won’t need to mine any. Simply remove the pipes and wiring from Green Blob houses and buildings and steal the copper wiring feeding their services. I see Copper Theft on the rise in the near future.
According to Victor Davis Hanson, copper theft has been a major industry in rural Central California. Illegal immigrants, who have converted the Valley into a third world hell-hole, steal anything containing copper from everywhere around his family farm – wire, electric motors of any kind, transformers, plumbing, etc. I’m sure it will spread to other areas. After all, isn’t California always on the “leading edge”?
Not quite. They oppose any mining in first world countries that may help their economies. They are silent about mining in China and Africa with zero environmental controls.
John XB
October 20, 2023 6:29 am
Whence cometh copper? Copper ore.
The focus on more copper for all these green products overlooks that its primary use in the Net Zero fantasy is grid upgrade and extension – 50 million miles of transmission lines, we are told, by 2050, plus grid equipment, plus all the additional local infrastructure too.
The decisive factor will be, can the mining industry dig copper ore out of the ground on a scale and rate required? The answer appears to be no – not even close.
Not only does that mean the 2050 target will be nowhere near met, but as demand climbs so will prices, making it cheaper to use gold – a better conductor – to construct this Alice in Wonderland project.
Aluminum transmission lines are primarily used in aerial applications because of its lighter weight. Much of the final distribution network, though, is buried copper cables.
Little trivia: telephone service once was very iffy in South America. As soon as copper wires were buried to service customers, they were ripped up by thieves for their copper salvage value. Some people recognized the pent up demand for reliable phone service and made millions investing in cellphone companies when they were introduced..
Yep, make copper as valuable as gold and people will begin stealing starters rather than catalytic converters
Walter Sobchak
October 20, 2023 6:32 am
Don’t worry, Brandon’s maladministration has already shut down proposed copper mines in Alaska and Minnesota. Gotta make sure we are dependent on the Chinese and that the Big Guy gets his 10%.
He’s uh, he’s saving them, yeah that sounds plausible – he’s saving them as a valuable resource for the future. Right that should do the trick, let’s run that!
Good article. It’s a shame how the proliferation of intermittent wind and solar sources of electricity will needlessly tie up so much copper and other minerals. And don’t even get me started about EV’s.
Most of the copper can probably be recovered and repurposed after wind and solar catastrophically implode. Even with oil and gas the infrastructure will always need to be expanded and upgraded, it’ll be needed.
I agree on catastrophic consequences, if wind and solar, Germany has already seen the leading edge. But the industry won’t implode due to any real world factors because it is not based on real world factors.
Some years ago the Mexican copper company that bought Phelps-Dodge purchased the Green Valley mine in southern Arizona. The EPA would not allow them to operate the smelter attached to the complex. The mining company said that they bought the mine because there was a smelter attached. Not being able to use it, they closed the mine, ending production, and laid off 400 miners.
jshotsky
October 20, 2023 7:09 am
As usual, the basis is severely misstated.
“which can reduce global GHG emissions by two-thirds” Should have been: which can reduce human-caused global GHG emissions by two-thirds Of course, left out of the discussion is that you could reduce it to zero, and it would not make any difference. Ninety-five percent of the emissions are completely natural. One of the largest emitters? PLANTS! “He said the carbon dioxide released by plants every year was now estimated to be about 10 to 11 times the emissions from human activities, rather than the previous estimate of five to eight times.” They go on to say that if the earth continues to warm, the CO2 released by plants will increase. Plants release more carbon dioxide into atmosphere than expected – ANU
Note: Plants absorb CO2 during the day and release it at night through transpiration.
To be fair, your note may be the most important part. The large amount of CO2 released by plants makes no difference they absorb just much during the day. If CO2 matters, then the net is what would make the difference long term. Unless it is shown that nighttime temperatures are producing most of the rise of the average, plant releases aren’t an issue.
Ok, my point was that if all human CO2 were stopped, nothing would change. Humans are not causing climate problems with CO2.
Termites emit more CO2 than humans.
The soil itself emits more CO2 than humans. Termites Emit 2Xs More CO2 Than Humans. Soil Emits 9Xs More. Termite Numbers, Soil Area Are Growing. – CO2 Coalition
Of all the sources of CO2, humans emit less than 5% on an annual basis. Net zero would not make an iota of difference to the climate, but would be devastating to human life with energy shortages and steep price increases for energy.
It is insane to think that one co2 molecule, per 2400 non-Co2 molecules, would somehow be able to ‘control’ climate. It doesn’t even pass the sniff test.
The way they can identify which mine a piece of copper came from, is by examining the trace minerals in a sample. I’m told that each mine has a unique finger print.
The problem with this method is that back then (as now) copper was a valuable mineral. When a copy tool or weapon wore out or broke, it was melted down and recast. Each time it got remelted, it ended up being mixed with copper from other sources and the end result was tools and weapons that had “finger print” that was a mix of multiple sources.
I’ve been saying for years that dumps can be thought of as future mines.
Stuff that is thrown away doesn’t disappear, it’s just laying around waiting for it to become valuable enough for someone to dig up the dump and recover it.
Yooper here. Many a day in my youth scrambling around those mine dumps and abandoned mine sites. Something rubbed off as I’ve spent 50+ years in the exploration and mining business. It can take up to 20 years to permit and develop a new mine in the USA today. Designating a metal as “critical” does not move that timeline.
Ron Long
October 20, 2023 7:33 am
Interesting and entertaining report, David. As a copper and cobalt exploration geologist I am totally confident that future demand can be met for both, because when the price goes up the mining cut-off grade goes down and the deposit gets bigger. I have a string of technical discoveries behind me that jump directly into production under these scenarios. Comment: if the future of the world ever depends on the collection of idiots in the movie trailer, we are doomed.
It’s the same with oil & gas… Higher prices turn resources into reserves and vice versa. I’m confident that future demand will be met because the further down the green road we travel, the more cost-prohibitive it will become.
Back in my college days (Late Pleistocene) I thought I was going to be a mining geologist. I even had a couple of interviews with Newmont. A family friend was Newmont geologist and they had an office in Danbury CT.. But I got a better offer from an oil company in Dallas.
strativarius
October 20, 2023 7:48 am
Is there a Francisco d’Anconia?
They’d better hope not.
Mr Ed
October 20, 2023 8:31 am
It’s all about the permitting. The “Greens” are in control of all permitting. Until they fail
nothing is going to change. They have stopped two major copper mines here in MT
along with most every other industrial project other than bird choppers and solar panels.
1984 needs to become fiction again.
antigtiff
October 20, 2023 8:35 am
Butt but….I just read that the “New” economy will be based on lithium?
Gary Pearse
October 20, 2023 8:55 am
The commodity analysis of DOE is amateurish, too. If you accelerate the demand for any commodity as envisioned, price rises rapidly and the demand for present uses drops off, it doesn’t carry on merrily at the same rate.
The simpleton low, low, high, high chart shows the moron, how-hard-can-it-be level of the DOE mineral and mining ‘expertise’.
ResourceGuy
October 20, 2023 9:07 am
The future of critical minerals is mostly Chinese with faster dealmaking for mineral projects, better bribing for project harmony, and no 100 Years Wars in court. Call it Belt and Road and Mines. The Democrats will sponsor studies and jawbone about a windfall profits tax on legacy U.S. copper producers while effectively outlawing mining in general.
The world would be a safer, less on fire kind of place if Lithium was depleted – the child slaves in DRoC would be safer and healthier if Cobalt run out tomorrow – the unethical, immoral supply chains for the nut zero battery car infestation must keep their virtue signalling drivers awake at night , then again, probably not
Meanwhile, here in the US, some are doing all they can to defund the “Coppers”.
Mark Adams
October 20, 2023 4:38 pm
Copper is nice, but Phonon-engineered extreme thermal conductivity materials may win these designs. In graphene for example, heat is mainly transmitted through acoustic phonons which can yield about 3383 W/m·K. Made of carbon, such a material might be produced cheaper than copper and have 10 times higher thermal conductivity than copper.
Terrapod
October 20, 2023 5:07 pm
Having spent a bit of time working in the Michigan U.P., there is plenty of copper there to be mined. Existing mines shut down quite some time ago, I think there might be one still operating but not sure, been a few years since I was there in the early 90’s.
Problem is…… gubbmint and native tribes. Neither wants to allow the scale of mining needed to reach the deposits. I have a couple raw copper nodules, maybe a pound or so, almost pure copper, extracted from the area, has a pretty high silver content too. Until we get back to the prosperity of the people coming first and eliminate all the government and other anti U.S. groups/restrictions, nothing will change.
My wife and I like visiting Bisbee AZ when we go to the SW – there is a truly monumental hole outside town, I think its a 1/4 mile deep – provided most of the allied copper for WWII I believe.
What’s the economic copper ore concentration these days ?
Bob
October 20, 2023 9:45 pm
This is all meaningless claptrap. There is no need for copper to be the new oil. Fossil fuel and nuclear are more than capable of providing plenty of energy for todays needs and all we will need in the future at a reasonable cost and steady supply. We’ll use the copper to support fossil fuel, nuclear, transportation and communications.
The Bingham Canyon Mine, one of the most visible landmarks here in the Salt Lake Valley, is said to be the largest hole ever dug by humans. It was producing a claimed 15% of the world’s copper until a landslide closed it a couple of years ago. I am not sure if any production has resumed but it must have made a dent in the supply. The enviros of course applauded the interruption in local production while existing in the copper-enabled world they only vaguely understand.
Beta Blocker
October 21, 2023 8:56 am
Francis Menton wants to see a demonstration project of a mainly renewables-based electrical grid that would include all the key elements — generation mainly from solar and wind, plus sufficient back-up or storage to make the whole thing work for the long term without involvement of fossil fuels, plus any other necessary elements to make the whole thing work.
In this comment to Francis Menton’s article, I propose that three large copper mines south of Tucson, Arizona, be converted to 95% (+) renewable energy operation by filling the empty desert which surrounds these mines with a series of large solar farms, wind farms, and battery backup facilities sufficient in size and capacity to supply these mines 24/7/365 with nearly all the energy they need. Thus supplying the kind of industrial-scale RE demonstration project Francis Menton believes is necessary.
A few years ago, I read an article about copper. It was stated in that article that if every vehicle in the UK were converted to electric, it would require ALL KNOWN COPPER in existence, just for the UK. I might try to find that article – it was interesting seeing that we are on a trajectory for which there are no answers for how to source the raw materials needed to ‘electrify’ every vehicle.
Great article, David.
Only in Brandon’s fevered dreams.
Copper is critical for electricity, but copper, like wind turbines and solar panels CANNOT make any products for humanity.
Everything that needs electricity is made from the oil derivatives manufactured OUT OF crude oil.
Without oil, there is no need for electricity!
https://www.cfact.org/2023/10/17/without-crude-oil-there-can-be-no-electricity
Good article there Mr. Stein.
I would add that many people use at least a few grams of petroleum derived shampoos, soaps, etc., buck naked in the shower every day.
Very well said Ronald! Should be required reading for anyone that believes we can live the same as we do today without oil.
So it’s far too precious to burn it in oversized cars.
Since Mr. Middleton’d very appropriate reply will likely go over your head let me give you a very short, very simplified, answer why there is a disdain for your ignorant comment:
The components in oil that can be used for products like plastics, fertilizers, roads, etc., are not good fuels. The components in oil used for fuels are not good for making other products. Essentially, if you use oil solely for making ‘stuff’, the components we use for fuels become waste products. What do you suggest we do with millions of gallons of it if we can’t burn it since we can’t use it for other things?
Prior to the rise of the automobile, that is precisely what happened, gasoline was considered a waste product that had to be disposed of.
Who gets to decide which cars are oversized?
You sound like the kind of guy who actually believes that you can improve the world by giving more power to government.
And of course, the Green Blob opposes any mining.
A conflict similar to the following: the Green Blob wants giant solar “farms”- but they also want no tree cutting- but many of these “farms” are going to require deforestation.
Regarding mining- how about those gigantic mining machines- the shovels and trucks. Are they going to run on solar/wind energy- or “clean hydrogen”?
They’ll replace the trees with trees like these…only much larger
A quick googling: Looks like Battery. So probably solar / wind.
https://cleantechnica.com/2023/07/05/australian-mining-companies-chose-battery-electric-over-hydrogen-fuel-cell-mining-trucks/
https://www.caterpillar.com/en/news/corporate-press-releases/h/caterpillar-succesfully-demonstrates-first-battery-electric-large-mining-truck.html
Lots of talk about big green machines- and demonstrations- not too many currently being used. We’ll have to see. It’s still hard to believe that battery-electric engines can run those gigantic machines for a full day’s work So as of now it’s still in the fantasy stage, like net zero. These machines are so expensive they’ll need to be used most days. If there’s any delay in charging them- the cost of not using them will be huge.
An actual reading of the articles: Looks like there’s one prototype large mining truck.
[…]
[…]
https://www.caterpillar.com/en/news/corporate-press-releases/h/caterpillar-succesfully-demonstrates-first-battery-electric-large-mining-truck.html
Exactly the same photo of the same truck is featured in both articles.
And the second time it runs out of juice 1/2 way between the bottom of the pit to the top, they’ll either be replaced by the mothballed diesel ones parked Outback…or they’ll be recharging them at the top after every trip down and costs will skyrocket.
Except for their beloved battery car cobalt – if they don’t think about the child slave labourers, they can pretend they don’t really exist
That’s OK, we won’t need to mine any. Simply remove the pipes and wiring from Green Blob houses and buildings and steal the copper wiring feeding their services. I see Copper Theft on the rise in the near future.
According to Victor Davis Hanson, copper theft has been a major industry in rural Central California. Illegal immigrants, who have converted the Valley into a third world hell-hole, steal anything containing copper from everywhere around his family farm – wire, electric motors of any kind, transformers, plumbing, etc. I’m sure it will spread to other areas. After all, isn’t California always on the “leading edge”?
Not quite. They oppose any mining in first world countries that may help their economies. They are silent about mining in China and Africa with zero environmental controls.
Whence cometh copper? Copper ore.
The focus on more copper for all these green products overlooks that its primary use in the Net Zero fantasy is grid upgrade and extension – 50 million miles of transmission lines, we are told, by 2050, plus grid equipment, plus all the additional local infrastructure too.
The decisive factor will be, can the mining industry dig copper ore out of the ground on a scale and rate required? The answer appears to be no – not even close.
Not only does that mean the 2050 target will be nowhere near met, but as demand climbs so will prices, making it cheaper to use gold – a better conductor – to construct this Alice in Wonderland project.
The transmission lines are aluminium based. The biggest use of copper, is in transformers and of course the generators.
Aluminum transmission lines are primarily used in aerial applications because of its lighter weight. Much of the final distribution network, though, is buried copper cables.
True Tom, but John was thinking of transmission lines.
Copper Theft futures are on the rise
Little trivia: telephone service once was very iffy in South America. As soon as copper wires were buried to service customers, they were ripped up by thieves for their copper salvage value. Some people recognized the pent up demand for reliable phone service and made millions investing in cellphone companies when they were introduced..
Yep, make copper as valuable as gold and people will begin stealing starters rather than catalytic converters
Don’t worry, Brandon’s maladministration has already shut down proposed copper mines in Alaska and Minnesota. Gotta make sure we are dependent on the Chinese and that the Big Guy gets his 10%.
He’s uh, he’s saving them, yeah that sounds plausible – he’s saving them as a valuable resource for the future. Right that should do the trick, let’s run that!
Strategic Copper Reserves
Biden is also mucking around in Arizona.
Good article. It’s a shame how the proliferation of intermittent wind and solar sources of electricity will needlessly tie up so much copper and other minerals. And don’t even get me started about EV’s.
Most of the copper can probably be recovered and repurposed after wind and solar catastrophically implode. Even with oil and gas the infrastructure will always need to be expanded and upgraded, it’ll be needed.
True. The implosion hopefully will start when the current wave of solar and wind installations comes to the end of useful life in < 25 years.
Or even more hopefully, much sooner than that.
I agree on catastrophic consequences, if wind and solar, Germany has already seen the leading edge. But the industry won’t implode due to any real world factors because it is not based on real world factors.
Some years ago the Mexican copper company that bought Phelps-Dodge purchased the Green Valley mine in southern Arizona. The EPA would not allow them to operate the smelter attached to the complex. The mining company said that they bought the mine because there was a smelter attached. Not being able to use it, they closed the mine, ending production, and laid off 400 miners.
As usual, the basis is severely misstated.
“which can reduce global GHG emissions by two-thirds”
Should have been:
which can reduce human-caused global GHG emissions by two-thirds
Of course, left out of the discussion is that you could reduce it to zero, and it would not make any difference. Ninety-five percent of the emissions are completely natural. One of the largest emitters? PLANTS!
“He said the carbon dioxide released by plants every year was now estimated to be about 10 to 11 times the emissions from human activities, rather than the previous estimate of five to eight times.”
They go on to say that if the earth continues to warm, the CO2 released by plants will increase.
Plants release more carbon dioxide into atmosphere than expected – ANU
Note: Plants absorb CO2 during the day and release it at night through transpiration.
That was why, hospitals used to remove flowers from the beside at night. 😊
To be fair, your note may be the most important part. The large amount of CO2 released by plants makes no difference they absorb just much during the day. If CO2 matters, then the net is what would make the difference long term. Unless it is shown that nighttime temperatures are producing most of the rise of the average, plant releases aren’t an issue.
Ok, my point was that if all human CO2 were stopped, nothing would change. Humans are not causing climate problems with CO2.
Termites emit more CO2 than humans.
The soil itself emits more CO2 than humans.
Termites Emit 2Xs More CO2 Than Humans. Soil Emits 9Xs More. Termite Numbers, Soil Area Are Growing. – CO2 Coalition
Of all the sources of CO2, humans emit less than 5% on an annual basis. Net zero would not make an iota of difference to the climate, but would be devastating to human life with energy shortages and steep price increases for energy.
It is insane to think that one co2 molecule, per 2400 non-Co2 molecules, would somehow be able to ‘control’ climate. It doesn’t even pass the sniff test.
They scrapped the Glomar Explorer to soon.
She was converted to a DP drillship and served out a 20 year career with Transocean before she was retired in 2015.
This was a big deal while I was in Navy. A nice try that proved a concept, but didn’t get what they were after.
It is said they actually DID at one time get what they were after, nuclear warheads from a sunk Russian submarine.
That is why Howard Hughes ended up with a massive portion of the western Las Vegas valley, now known as Summerlin.
It is more than just said but never openly admitted. Biggest claw-grab game in the world!
Copper has been mined here in UP for over a hundred years.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontonagon_Boulder
Some think that the copper for the Bronze age in Europe came from there. See ‘America B.C.’ by Barry Fells, 1989.
The big problem with that theory is the lack of ocean going vessels in 5000 BC, not to mention the many sources of copper that were much closer..
The way they can identify which mine a piece of copper came from, is by examining the trace minerals in a sample. I’m told that each mine has a unique finger print.
The problem with this method is that back then (as now) copper was a valuable mineral. When a copy tool or weapon wore out or broke, it was melted down and recast. Each time it got remelted, it ended up being mixed with copper from other sources and the end result was tools and weapons that had “finger print” that was a mix of multiple sources.
I understand that all the old copper-rich dumps are being crushed and used — literally — as road metal.
I’ve been saying for years that dumps can be thought of as future mines.
Stuff that is thrown away doesn’t disappear, it’s just laying around waiting for it to become valuable enough for someone to dig up the dump and recover it.
Yooper here. Many a day in my youth scrambling around those mine dumps and abandoned mine sites. Something rubbed off as I’ve spent 50+ years in the exploration and mining business. It can take up to 20 years to permit and develop a new mine in the USA today. Designating a metal as “critical” does not move that timeline.
Interesting and entertaining report, David. As a copper and cobalt exploration geologist I am totally confident that future demand can be met for both, because when the price goes up the mining cut-off grade goes down and the deposit gets bigger. I have a string of technical discoveries behind me that jump directly into production under these scenarios. Comment: if the future of the world ever depends on the collection of idiots in the movie trailer, we are doomed.
It’s the same with oil & gas… Higher prices turn resources into reserves and vice versa. I’m confident that future demand will be met because the further down the green road we travel, the more cost-prohibitive it will become.
David, did you ever think about crossing over to the yellow gold side? You know, we have more fun.
Back in my college days (Late Pleistocene) I thought I was going to be a mining geologist. I even had a couple of interviews with Newmont. A family friend was Newmont geologist and they had an office in Danbury CT.. But I got a better offer from an oil company in Dallas.
Is there a Francisco d’Anconia?
They’d better hope not.
It’s all about the permitting. The “Greens” are in control of all permitting. Until they fail
nothing is going to change. They have stopped two major copper mines here in MT
along with most every other industrial project other than bird choppers and solar panels.
1984 needs to become fiction again.
Butt but….I just read that the “New” economy will be based on lithium?
The commodity analysis of DOE is amateurish, too. If you accelerate the demand for any commodity as envisioned, price rises rapidly and the demand for present uses drops off, it doesn’t carry on merrily at the same rate.
The simpleton low, low, high, high chart shows the moron, how-hard-can-it-be level of the DOE mineral and mining ‘expertise’.
The future of critical minerals is mostly Chinese with faster dealmaking for mineral projects, better bribing for project harmony, and no 100 Years Wars in court. Call it Belt and Road and Mines. The Democrats will sponsor studies and jawbone about a windfall profits tax on legacy U.S. copper producers while effectively outlawing mining in general.
Masthead of the California Mining Journal read:
Without Mining There Is No Civilization
The world would be a safer, less on fire kind of place if Lithium was depleted – the child slaves in DRoC would be safer and healthier if Cobalt run out tomorrow – the unethical, immoral supply chains for the nut zero battery car infestation must keep their virtue signalling drivers awake at night , then again, probably not
The Chinese also know the score.
story tip
Miners race to realise graphite projects as China controls exports (yahoo.com)
And they will defend it too.
story tip
China is building up its nuclear weapons arsenal faster than previous projections, a US report says – ABC News (go.com)
Just one caveat. Don’t let hillary anywhere near the copper mines.
Meanwhile, here in the US, some are doing all they can to defund the “Coppers”.
Copper is nice, but Phonon-engineered extreme thermal conductivity materials may win these designs. In graphene for example, heat is mainly transmitted through acoustic phonons which can yield about 3383 W/m·K. Made of carbon, such a material might be produced cheaper than copper and have 10 times higher thermal conductivity than copper.
Having spent a bit of time working in the Michigan U.P., there is plenty of copper there to be mined. Existing mines shut down quite some time ago, I think there might be one still operating but not sure, been a few years since I was there in the early 90’s.
Problem is…… gubbmint and native tribes. Neither wants to allow the scale of mining needed to reach the deposits. I have a couple raw copper nodules, maybe a pound or so, almost pure copper, extracted from the area, has a pretty high silver content too. Until we get back to the prosperity of the people coming first and eliminate all the government and other anti U.S. groups/restrictions, nothing will change.
My wife and I like visiting Bisbee AZ when we go to the SW – there is a truly monumental hole outside town, I think its a 1/4 mile deep – provided most of the allied copper for WWII I believe.
What’s the economic copper ore concentration these days ?
This is all meaningless claptrap. There is no need for copper to be the new oil. Fossil fuel and nuclear are more than capable of providing plenty of energy for todays needs and all we will need in the future at a reasonable cost and steady supply. We’ll use the copper to support fossil fuel, nuclear, transportation and communications.
Dave,
Check your twitter, please.
I use Twitter so rarely, that I forget I have an account.
What am I looking for?
The Bingham Canyon Mine, one of the most visible landmarks here in the Salt Lake Valley, is said to be the largest hole ever dug by humans. It was producing a claimed 15% of the world’s copper until a landslide closed it a couple of years ago. I am not sure if any production has resumed but it must have made a dent in the supply. The enviros of course applauded the interruption in local production while existing in the copper-enabled world they only vaguely understand.
Francis Menton wants to see a demonstration project of a mainly renewables-based electrical grid that would include all the key elements — generation mainly from solar and wind, plus sufficient back-up or storage to make the whole thing work for the long term without involvement of fossil fuels, plus any other necessary elements to make the whole thing work.
In this comment to Francis Menton’s article, I propose that three large copper mines south of Tucson, Arizona, be converted to 95% (+) renewable energy operation by filling the empty desert which surrounds these mines with a series of large solar farms, wind farms, and battery backup facilities sufficient in size and capacity to supply these mines 24/7/365 with nearly all the energy they need. Thus supplying the kind of industrial-scale RE demonstration project Francis Menton believes is necessary.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/10/20/what-passes-for-a-demonstration-project-among-our-government-geniuses/#comment-3804952
A few years ago, I read an article about copper. It was stated in that article that if every vehicle in the UK were converted to electric, it would require ALL KNOWN COPPER in existence, just for the UK. I might try to find that article – it was interesting seeing that we are on a trajectory for which there are no answers for how to source the raw materials needed to ‘electrify’ every vehicle.
This is not the article which I referenced, but it does have similar information…
Copper, the Critical Material for Transportation Electrification | Engineering.com