The Bitter Taste of Climate Alarmism in Your Beer

When climate science hops into the brewery.

Hops and Hyperbole

In a recent twist, global warming is now being blamed for potentially altering the taste of beer. A study claims that the quantity of European hops, responsible for beer’s distinctive bitter taste, is on the decline. “A new study reveals that the quantity of European hops… is declining.” But before jumping to conclusions, it’s worth examining the broader picture.

A Deep Dive into Dubious Data

The research compared aroma hop yields between two periods: 1971 to 1994 and 1995 to 2018. The findings? A supposed drop of nearly 20% in output in some hop-growing areas. The reason? “Drier conditions – probably due to climate change.” It’s curious how a complex system like climate can be so simplistically linked to the yield of a single crop.

The Inflated Cost of Inflation

Martin Mozny, a co-author, suggests that these changes might lead to higher beer prices. With beer prices already up by 13% since the pandemic, it’s convenient to have climate change as the next scapegoat for any future price hikes.

Flavor or Flawed Science?

The study also points to a reduction in the alpha bitter acids of hops, which influence beer flavor. The alleged cause? “Higher and more extreme temperatures.” Yet, with predictions of a 31% reduction in these acids by 2050, one has to wonder about the precision of such long-term forecasts, given the track record of past climate predictions.

Farmers’ Futile Fight?

While farmers are innovating and adapting their practices, the study insists more investment is needed. It’s commendable that farmers are always seeking ways to improve, but it’s questionable to suggest massive changes based on a single study’s narrow findings.

In Conclusion

This latest research, published in Nature Communications, is a classic example of the narrow lens through which many studies view the world of climate aka climate catastrophizing. Instead of jumping on the climate alarmism bandwagon, perhaps it’s time to enjoy a cold one and savor the rich history and tradition of brewing, rather than brewing unnecessary panic. Cheers to clear thinking and good beer!

Link to the Nature Study.

Nature Communications volume 14, Article number: 6028 (2023) Cite this article

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Abstract

A recent rise in the global brewery sector has increased the demand for high-quality, late summer hops. The effects of ongoing and predicted climate change on the yield and aroma of hops, however, remain largely unknown. Here, we combine meteorological measurements and model projections to assess the climate sensitivity of the yield, alpha content and cone development of European hops between 1970 and 2050 CE, when temperature increases by 1.4 °C and precipitation decreases by 24 mm. Accounting for almost 90% of all hop-growing regions, our results from Germany, the Czech Republic and Slovenia show that hop ripening started approximately 20 days earlier, production declined by almost 0.2 t/ha/year, and the alpha content decreased by circa 0.6% when comparing data before and after 1994 CE. A predicted decline in hop yield and alpha content of 4–18% and 20–31% by 2050 CE, respectively, calls for immediate adaptation measures to stabilize an ever-growing global sector.

Introduction

Beer is the world’s third most widely consumed beverage after water and tea¹, and traditional beer brewing in central Europe dates back at least to the Neolithic period circa 3500–3100 BC². In addition to water, malting barley and yeast, a much more expensive hop is needed to give beer its incomparable taste³. The specific hop aroma emerges from its bitter acid content and many other compounds, including essential oils and polyphenols^4,5,6. Changes in alpha bitter acids affect the quality of hops^{7,8,9,10,11,12}, and there has been a recent change in consumer preference towards beer aromas and flavors that heavily depend on high-quality hops^13,14. Amplified by the ongoing craft beer popularity¹³, this trend contrasts with previous demands for lower alpha content¹⁴. The recent craft beer expansion therefore not only triggered new microbreweries but also boosted the demand for aromatic hops globally^15,16. Although linkages between hop production and climate variation have been reported at local to regional scales^{9,10,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27}, relatively little is known about the possible, direct and indirect, effects of a predicted warmer and drier climate on the yield and alpha content of hops.

Since the cultivation of high-quality aroma hops is restricted to relatively small regions with suitable environmental conditions (Fig. 1), there is a serious risk that much of the production will be affected by individual heat waves or drought extremes that are likely to increase under global climate change²⁸. Hop farmers can and have responded to climate change by relocating hop gardens to higher elevations and valley locations with higher water tables, building irrigation systems¹⁰, changing the orientation and spacing of crop rows, and even breeding more resistant varieties²⁹. Changing the orientation of crop rows and combining irrigation with water-saving soil management practices have proven to be effective adaptation measures in viticulture^30,31. It is important that the generative phase of hop plants occurs only in the appropriate photoperiod when sunshine duration is decreasing. This can be achieved by slowing plant growth via growth inhibitors or by building protective shading structures; which is, however, quite expensive. There is a similar problem in vineyards where shading by agrovoltaic panels has been introduced^32,33. The higher probability of droughts can be partly mitigated by less frequent tillage and cultivation of hop fields, changes in fertilization and the use of row cover crops to support root growth³⁴. A systematic and European-wide investigation of the impact of ongoing and predicted climate change on the quality and quantity of aroma hops is, however, still missing.

You can read the rest of the “study” here.

HT/Guy S