By John Droz, Jr. — September 11, 2023
Ed. Note: This post excerpts energy and climate material from the Media Balance Newsletter, a free fortnighly published by physicist John Droz Jr., founder of the Alliance for Wise Energy Decisions. The complete Newsletter for this post can be found here.
Greed Energy Economics:
*** New Wind Energy Costs Blow the Doors Off Projections
*** Electricity from wind isn’t cheap and it never will be
*** Another fairy tale about the levelized cost of renewables
Wind farms gaming system to inflate millions earned when asked to halt production
Support for offshore wind sinks as costs soar
Low Interest Shown in US’ First Gulf of Mexico Offshore Wind Auction
Unreliables: Energy Health and Ecosystem Consequences:
Cobalt Carnage, Child Labor, and Ecological Destruction
Unreliables (General):
*** The US is facing a blackout ‘crisis’ – thanks to green energy
*** Why wind and solar power are running out of juice
California’s planning a renewable energy project at a scale never before attempted in the world
Maine town in path of proposed power corridor approves moratorium on utility lines
In Blow to Renewables, Ninth Circuit Mostly Upholds FERC’s PURPA Reforms
Wind Energy — Offshore:
*** Offshore wind project will damage ocean ecosystem with no environmental benefit
*** Offshore wind projects may be cancelled in NJ, according to report
*** This board advises RI on offshore wind’s impacts on fisheries: they all just resigned
Wind Industry Money Behind Media Misinformation about Whale Deaths
U.S. Offshore Wind Plans Collapsing
Wind Energy — Other:
*** Taking the Wind Out of Climate Change (referencing 60± studies)
*** Wind Energy Fails Texas
*** America’s Wind-Turbine Revolution Is Broken
Solar Energy:
What happened with Crescent Dunes?
Renewable Solar Comes with Recurring Waste Costs
Nuclear Energy:
Baran confirmation threatens Biden administration climate targets
The Richest Opponents of Carbon-Free Nuclear Energy
Fossil Fuel Energy:
*** Energy consumption by China (Note complete dominance of fossil fuels!)
*** China is building new coal power so fast that ‘energy transition’ by the West is meaningless
*** AAF on Biden’s Canceling Gas Leases in Alaska
California to expand fossil fuel project Newsom said he was ‘fully committed’ to shutting down
Boston bans use of fossil fuels to power the construction of public buildings
Once Again, Natural Gas Rescued Ontario From Blackouts
Electric Vehicles (EVs):
*** EV Fail: Car Dealers Turning Away From Electric Vehicles After Learning Harsh Economics Lesson
The Electric Vehicle Is Driving Away with Our Freedom
Nobody wants an electric car
Miscellaneous Energy News:
*** Consumer Watchdog Launches Campaign Exposing Duke Energy ESG Priorities Over Reliable Power Grid
Rebuke Duke Energy
New Duke Plan Would Add More Nuclear and Natural Gas but No Offshore Wind
More Proof That the “Electrify Everything” Push is a Regressive Tax
Every Problem With The Texas Grid Is Caused By Government Policy
Manmade Global Warming — Some Deceptions:
*** The Art of the Steal: Net Zero Is Unattainable
*** Zero Net EV Economic, Climate Benefits and Gov’t Admits It
*** The green movement is a disinformation campaign
*** Climate scientist says he ‘left out the full truth’ to get wildfire study published
*** Major Study: 40% of Global Warming Since 1850 is Due to Urban Heat Corruptions
*** Maui’s wildfire tragedy caused by “green” policies, not warming
*** Seven Proofs: Why Human CO2 does not control the CO2 level or the climate
We Can’t Change Weather, but Can Change the Hysteria Over It
Climate Change “Science” Is Nasty Political Sausage
New York Goes Peak Madness Over Environmental Justice
US Rejects China’s Bid to Hold Climate ‘Hostage’ Over Chips
Manmade Global Warming — Miscellaneous:
*** Nobel Winner Refutes Climate Change Narrative, Points out Ignored Factor
*** Dr. Steven Koonin Questions Conventional Climate Science and Methodology
*** 32-year Reuters veteran reporter comes clean on climate change: “I was wrong”
*** Over 1,600 Scientists Sign ‘No Climate Emergency’ Declaration
*** New study suggests global warming could be mostly an urban problem
*** A CEO Who Doesn’t Equivocate About Climate
How Democrats’ climate change agenda is blocking real change for America
Home insurers cut natural disasters from policies as climate risks grow
Climate Change & Weather
New climate film offers science-based relief from alarmism
And that’s why hydrocarbon energy represents a significant fraction of my portfolio.
On levelised costs, he says for offshore wind it could be up to £150K/year/MW capacity. Well, say at a CF of 0.4, that would be up to about £42/MWh. But a gas turbine chews through about £60 in fuel costs per MWh, even before OPEX starts.
To that then add in the Government Subsidy.
Currently in the UK…
How much is wind power subsidized in the UK?
Thus, the wind farms in the 1 ROC per MWh band, such as Scroby Sands, cost £55 in subsidy per MWh/b> generated in 2020, whereas those in the 2 ROCs per MWh band, such as London Array, Thanet, and Gwynt y Mor, cost £110 in subsidy per MWh generated.
And in Australia…
If the marginal cost for a wind farm company to produce 1 MWh of energy is around $80, the RET at current prices offers a significant subsidy of $50 per MWh of the $80 per MWh price.
Well, too bad we can’t make corrections anymore I missed the {<} at the end of the first bolding
Which explains why there were NO BIDS for installation of offshore wind for the UK, even at a highly subsidised price..
right, Nick Pick.
And of course, GAS is there when you need it. You can plan for dispatchable supply.
You can store gas as required.
Wind is nothing but an expensive, erratic, parasitic inconvenience to any rational, reliable supply system.
This kind of ‘levelised cost’ is tosh. What it means is that the cost of wind is £17/MWh 0.4 of the time, and infinity for the remaining 0.6 of the time. There never is or was wind energy at the quoted £42/MWh. When you factor in misusing other facilities to cover that 0.6 of the time, you end up with the most expensive electricity on the planet. If you simply use those other facilities 1.0 of the time, everything becomes a lot cheaper, easier and more functional.
Gas & nuclear allow me to heat my home whenever I need to, not when wind and solar let me.
Reliability is a must in modern society.
The gas turbine generates power when you want it, but with wind turbines you pay for electricity when it feels like blowing whether you want the power or not.
All the utilities mentioned were asking for higher wholesale prices than I pay retail here in hydrated and fully nuked Ontario – so how in the world did you arrive at £42/MWh? Roughly 5¢US/kWh?? In your dreams – all the companys are asking for way more than 10¢ (some asking for almost 20) or they are walking away from the US projects.
And I see you forgot to include battery backup or gas peaking plants in your wind energy calculation – not to mention maintenance as well.
He didn’t forget battery backup or gas peaking plant, that is a ‘feature’ of his logic.
“so how in the world did you arrive at £42/MWh?”
Just arithmetic. Droz’s source says OPEX is about £150K/MW/yr, so with CF=0.4, 150K/24/365/0.4=42.
Nick,
You need to do better.
Use real numbers
EU big wind conglomerates want, on average, 40% more compensation, because turnkey capital costs (foundations, turbines, cabling to shore, installation) have gone to at least $5,500/installed kW and interest rates to 6.25% in 2023, from $3,500/kW and 3% in 2021
UK and New York State bureaucrats are grossly uninformed regarding market conditions, as usual. They have zero business sense.
New York State bureaucrats calculated their estimates of offshore wind contract prices, but when the owners saw those numbers, they said, we need up to 66% more, for our spreadsheets to make business sense. See Item 4 and note
These contract prices are after 50% US subsidies
Oersted, Denmark, Sunrise wind, original price $110.37/MWh, needs $139.99/MWh, a 27% increase
Equinor, Norway, Empire 1 wind, original price $118.38/MWh, needs $159.64/MWh, a 35% increase
Equinor, Norway, Empire 2 wind, original price $107.50/MWh, needs $177.84/MWh, a 66% increase
Equinor, Norway, Beacon Wind, original price $118.00/MWh, needs $190.82/MWh, a 62% increase
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/liars-lies-exposed-as-wind-electricity-price-increases-by-66-wake
NOTE: “The all-in, turnkey capital cost associated with a typical US offshore project, before bonus tax credits related to the “Inflation-Reduction-Act”, has increased by 57% since 2021.
Increased costs of materials, energy, components, labor, and supply chain disruptions and constraints (shortage of specialized ships) explain about 40% of that, with 60% due to increased interest rates.”, per Bloomberg recently reported, citing figures from Bloomberg-NEF
Increased financing costs are due to larger amounts borrowed/installed MW, at higher interest rates
In 2021, borrowing $3500/installed kW at 3% for 20 years would cost 3.322 c/kWh
In 2023, borrowing $5500/installed kW at 6.25% for 20 years would cost 6.879 c/kWh
For more info read this
US/UK 56,000 MW OF OFFSHORE WIND BY 2030; AN EXPENSIVE FANTASY
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/biden-30-000-mw-of-offshore-wind-systems-by-2030-a-total-fantasy
Nicki forgot the entire equation. Yes, Wind is Free.
It’s just the conversion machinery to turn it into electricity cost up the ying/yang.
There is no economical justification for so called ‘renewable energy’. If there were, we’d be seeing lower electricity bills inversely proportional to the amount of renewable energy added.
There is also not scientific or engineering justification…
(except in niche cases where it is hard to reach with grid supplies, and reliability is not necessarily required.),
ps, hydro is worthwhile when it has sufficient dam storage and rainfall to allow it to be dispatchable most of the time… but it is still weather dependant.
It speaks volumes: That I picked one link at random and it trashed the whole green revolution, or especially, the lies surrounding it
I picked the one about Crescent Dunes solar farm
It is seemingly struggling along and making electricity.
It was designed/built using some rare and expensive alloys, of steel typically, and not only did the get the design wrong, they couldn’t get/find any workers/welders who could assemble it.
**THIS** was/is just for a fairly standard device to raise steam – at 200Celsius or there-about.
Kinda highlights where nuclear fusion is gonna fall over, working at millions of Celsius as it does
But the Epic Lie concerns ‘cheap electricity’
Crescent Dunes simply cannot compete in the day-time market (because of solar PV) so they save up as much heat as they can and produce power for the night-time market when electricity is much more exepensive
But wait: especially in the UK, How Many Times are we told that we’ll be able to charge our cars, operate our heat pumps and do our laundry AND ‘make Hydrogen’ at night because renewable energy will be ‘so plentiful and cheap‘
Not least, if we try to do those things in the daytime we’ll be monitored, controlled, punished, disconnected, fined and blacked-out if we actually do try.
Thus we have to use night-time electric because it’s ‘cheap’
Crescent Dunes drives a coach & horses through that….