The Week That Was: 2023-08-12 (August 12, 2023)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “The important thing is not to stop questioning. Curiosity has its own reason for existing. One cannot help but be in awe when he contemplates mysteries of eternity, of life, of the marvelous structure of reality. It is enough if one tries merely to comprehend a little of this mystery every day. — Albert Einstein
Number of the Week: Minus 105 F (minus 76 C)
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: The Global Temperature Report for July is discussed. The fires in Maui and significant misrepresentations of cause are presented. SEPP’s comments to EPA on its new rules for power plants are covered. Judith Curry’s interview by John Stossel is presented, including how a consensus was manufactured. Some politicians appear to be becoming aware of citizen dislike of increasing electricity costs, and other failures in the green dream are discussed. The administration’s latest proclamation of sacred lands is presented.
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Atmospheric Temperatures: Last week, TWTW held off on commenting on the record high July atmospheric temperatures calculated by Roy Spencer and John Christy until the Global Temperature Report by Earth System Science Center at University of Alabama in Huntsville was issued. This week the report stated:
“The global atmospheric temperature anomaly increased quite a bit in July to +0.64°C (+1.15°F) above the 30-year average. The tropics continue to warm up from the ongoing El Niño with the atmospheric temperature anomaly increasing there from -0.03°C (April) to 0.87°C (July).”
“Along with the natural warming of the current El Niño event, we are analyzing the potential (and natural) warming impacts of the 2022 eruption of the Hunga Tonga submarine volcano and its injection of water vapor into the stratosphere. Normally, a major tropical eruption would send large amounts of gasses such as sulfur dioxide up that high which form sun-reflecting aerosols leading to a cooling of the Earth’s lower atmosphere. However, the Hunga Tonga submarine volcano eruption injected large amounts of water vapor to that altitude which may be overriding any aerosol cooling effects and lead to a net warming of the atmosphere. These natural warming effects, which come and go somewhat irregularly, add to the warming influence of the gradually increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.” [Boldface added]
So, the Earth System Science Center held off in drawing conclusions of cause until the researchers have the opportunity to fully analyze the data. Such prudence is noteworthy. No wonder Cheng-Zhi Zou, et al. of the Satellite Meteorology and Climatology Division of NOAA, published an article in JGR Atmospheres presenting a new version of the NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) of the mid-tropospheric temperature (TMT) time series. This dataset independently verifies the work of Roy Spencer and Christy on atmospheric temperature trends and the adjustments they made for satellite orbital drift. Since 1979, the warming of the lower- and mid-troposphere is 0.14°C (0.25°F) per decade. A warming of one-quarter of one degree F every ten years is not an emergency.
Double-checking calculations before drawing conclusions is exceptional in today’s highly politically charged media world. Virtually all the tropical atmosphere was warmer, indicating that an El Niño may not be the cause. Usually, El Niños show a pronounced warming abnormality off the coast of Peru, which is not the case for July. TWTW accepts the concept that regional Pacific Ocean warming elsewhere is probably the result of subsurface geothermal activity, separate from El Niños. See links under Measurement Issues – Atmosphere and Changing Earth for views about the Hunga-Tonga subsurface eruption.
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Maui Fires: The death toll for these fires on the third most populated island is over 60, and of course “climate change” a warming of the earth from an increase of carbon dioxide is blamed. For example, The Hill published a report claiming: “Maui fires suggest dangerous new phase for disasters” and the article states:
“‘People literally running for their lives, barefoot down the street and jumping in the ocean — that’s how fast the fire spread down the slopes and into town,’ Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, said during a Wednesday webinar.
‘These look like disaster movie scenes, but these are real world events that just took place in Hawaii on the island of Maui,’ he added.
‘Swain, who is also a research fellow at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, [NCAR, a center for US climate modeling] described ‘a catastrophic wildland urban interface firestorm’ that spread under unusually dry and windy conditions, particularly on the western side of Maui.’”
Meteorologist Cliff Mass had a more balanced analysis. In “The Origin of the Hawaii Fires/Preventing a Similar Tragedy in the Future” Mass wrote:
“Why did this event occur?
The origin of this disaster is now becoming clear: massive amounts of dry, dead fuel (mainly grass), strong downslope winds produced by strong trades interacting with local mountains, and human ignition, most probably from powerlines.
Dry grass and shrubs
Maui was a tinderbox ready to burn explosively. As noted in a number of articles and Hawaiian government websites, a large portion of Hawaii is covered by highly flammable, invasive, non-native grasses.
Western Maui is typically wet in the winter and quite dry (and warm) during summer. Grass grows during the winter and then dies/cures during the summer, leaving brown desiccated grass. This is not climate change…this is the normal situation.” [Graph of rainfall omitted here.]
“This year the winter was particularly wet, enhancing Maui grass volume, followed by a dry summer. A huge supply of dead fuel was ready to burn.
There has been a lot of talk in the media about drought and even “flash drought” driven by climate change (see Seattle Times headline below). This is all silly and irrelevant. The opposite of drought last winter resulted in lots of grass and even a normal summer would have resulted in the grass ready to burn now. [Boldface in original]
Also important is that the grasses are 1-10hr fuels that dry within hours under the proper conditions (low relative humidity, winds, sun). The conditions earlier this week were optimal for drying with warm, dry, downslope flow. The grasses could have been drenched a few days before and burned under such conditions. Climate change is irrelevant in this situation.”
Headline from the Seattle Times omitted here.
“The Winds
Lahaina was hit by powerful winds, with gusts exceeding 60 mph. Winds that provided oxygen to the fires pushed the fire quickly forward, and downed powerlines, helping spark the fires.
There is a lot of talk about the winds coming from hurricane Dora, which passed 800 km to the south of Hawaii.
The winds that hit Lahaina were NOT hurricane winds.
The winds that helped destroy Lahaina were caused by strong trade winds, produced mainly by enhanced high pressure to the north, interacting with Maui terrain to produce strong/dry downslope winds.
These were localized strong winds that amazingly were well predicted by the NOAA HRRR model and others.
During the last day UW Research Scientist David Ovens, a member of my research group, ran the WRF weather prediction model at high resolution for this case.
The results are stunning. Below is the 27h forecast of wind gusts at 8 PM PDT on Tuesday, Aug. 8th. Gusts to around 65 knots (75 mph) around Lahaina (color shading). Pressure is also shown as are the wind vectors. A life-threatening prediction. [Wind map omitted here]
Moderate winds approached the mountains of West Maui and then accelerated down the western slopes of the terrain. A stable near crest level assisted.
Strong winds were also observed over central Maui west of Haleakala volcano: more grassfires occurred there.
Let me repeat these were NOT hurricane winds but local downslope wind accelerations, produced by the occurrence of perfect meteorological conditions, something I will review in a future blog.
An analog to such wind acceleration is the strong winds that can occur in Enumclaw, Black Diamond, and North Bend, Washington under strong easterly (from the east) flow.”
As with many “wildfires” in Western US, it would be prudent to construct appropriate firebreaks, but this is not done because they upset environmentalists. Mass concludes:
“The combination of rigorous science, more observations, better use of models, stronger and more aggressive warnings, and powerline de-energization can ensure that a tragedy like this week will never occur again in the Hawaiian Islands.” [Boldface in original]
See links under Seeking a Common Ground.
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Comments to EPA: In correspondence, Richard Courtney wrote:
“In my opinion the important point is that there is no agreed definition of how measurement sites should be selected, weighted, and combined to provide an average temperature of a region, the hemisphere, or the globe. In the absence of any possibility of an independent calibration standard the lack of definition means the data can be – and are – misused to support any desired narrative because measurement sites have different warming or cooling trends.”
Keeping these in mind, SEPP’s comments to EPA on its latest proposed regulations on fossil fuel plants endorsed the submission of Professors Emeriti Happer and Lindzen and added a few additional comments. They included the importance of greenhouse gases in keeping land masses from freezing at night and that EPA does not understand how greenhouse gases influence temperatures, particularly their self-limiting characteristics. Further, EPA ignores the work of Spencer and Christy and the only truly global temperatures existing. The work was verified by Cheng-Zhi Zou, et al. of NOAA.
In addition, the work of van Wijngaarden and Happer (using the HITRAN database) shows how water vapor overpowers effectiveness of all other greenhouse gases such as methane and increasing CO2 and water vapor in the current atmosphere is insignificant on temperatures. The SEPP submission concludes as follows:
“Science published a study with extensive data on the history of CO2 and surface temperature taken from many places on the ocean floor. (8) Over the past 67 million years, the authors identify four stages of Earth’s temperatures ranging from Hothouse to Icehouse. The authors claimed that CO2 concentrations made the difference. But once unraveled, the data shows a large variation in CO2 at each one of these stages and changing land masses better explains the changes. (9) We are now in a brief warm phase in a 3.5-million-year Icehouse Earth stage, during which thousands of feet of ice covering most of North America as far south as Manhattan 20,000 years ago. And EPA considers this warming dangerous? No wonder China’s emissions exceed US and EU combined (10), BRICS nations (11) are not following western lead, and coal burning exceed records. (12).” The references are omitted here but available on request.
It is doubtful that the comments will have any impact on EPA, particularly during this administration. But EPA’s actions are potentially dangerous for the American prosperity and probably even public health. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Manufactured Consensus: John Stossel interviewed Judith Curry in which she explains why she left academia entirely, although it involved significant personal cost. As Stossel later writes:
“Curry was the unusual researcher who looked at criticism of her work and actually concluded: ‘They had a point.’
Then the Climategate scandal taught her that other climate researchers weren’t so open-minded. Alarmist scientists’ aggressive attempts to hide data suggesting climate change is not a crisis were revealed in leaked emails.
‘Ugly things,’ says Curry. ‘Avoiding Freedom of Information Act requests. Trying to get journal editors fired.’
It made Curry realize that there is a ‘climate change industry’ set up to reward alarmism.
‘The origins go back to the … U.N. environmental program,’ says Curry, adding:
Some U.N. officials were motivated by anti-capitalism. They hated the oil companies and seized on the climate change issue to move their policies along.
The United Nations created the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Says Curry:
The IPCC wasn’t supposed to focus on any benefits of warming. The IPCC’s mandate was to look for dangerous human-caused climate change.
Then, the national funding agencies directed all the funding … assuming there are dangerous impacts.
The researchers quickly figured out that the way to get funded was to make alarmist claims about man-made climate change.
This is how ‘manufactured consensus’ happens. Even if a skeptic did get funding, it’s harder to publish because journal editors are alarmists.”
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy
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The Green Wall: The green wall of electricity grid failure is appearing to some in various countries and even some politicians are realizing it. The politicians in the UK accepted the misleading work of economist Nicholas Stern with deceptive discount rates, and passed the Climate Change Act 2008 requiring reductions in emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases by at least 100% of 1990 levels (Net Zero) by 2050. This set up bureaucracies such as the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) and the Department for Environment and Rural Affairs (Defra) to “guide” the way to Net Zero.
Francis Menton writes that even the current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is having doubts on how smooth the path may be. Some voters do not like rapid increases in electricity prices and feel deceived. Menton quotes an August 2 article in The Sun:
Net Zero Secretary Grant Shapps was yesterday forced to admit the National Grid is hopelessly underpowered for the challenge of charging up millions more electric vehicles. And Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch is warning — along with car manufacturers — that an arbitrary requirement for 22 per cent of all car sales to be electric by NEXT YEAR is risking jobs and investment. . .. [A]s ex-Cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg argues, if the PM were to back The Sun and put the brakes on net zero as part of his 2024 election manifesto, it would be popular with voters. And it could well get him back on the road to victory.
Writing in WUWT, Eric Worrall says that “green” Tasmania has no electricity reserves that would allow expansion of industry that requires electricity. Jo Nova notes that Australian politicians were dreaming that pumped hydro and an interconnection to Tasmania would provide needed electricity when wind and solar fail in Australia. Both dreams have turned into grim fairy tales. TWTW previously noted, even King Island, with a population of about 1,500 cannot provide reliable electricity with wind, even with elaborate storage, and requires diesel about 35% of the time.
Menton has made some calculations of the realistic costs of storage needed for wind and solar, which have been ignored by green politicians. He has revised those, stating that they were too optimistic. He writes:
“At more realistic assumptions of $300 – 500/kWh for battery storage, you would be looking at 3 to 5 times GDP for one round of batteries, which would then need replacement every few years.
But even these numbers wildly understate the real-world costs of storage that would be needed.”
All this is lost on politicians who ignore costs to the public of the skyrocketing costs of electric vehicles. Roger Caizza writes:
“The New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) recently adopted amendments to 6 NYCRR Section 200.9 and 6 NYCRR Part 218 will incorporate California’s Advanced Clean Cars II (ACC II) regulation that require increasing annual zero emission vehicle (ZEV) sales requirements starting at 35% in model year 2026 and increasing to 100% by model year 2035.”
Such regulations, as well as the state trying to make the Great Lakes snow belt a center for solar power, make one wonder if New York politicians believe upstate New York has the same climate as San Diego. See links under Energy Issues – Australia, Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy – Storage, California Dreaming by New York, and https://www.theccc.org.uk/what-is-climate-change/a-legal-duty-to-act/#:~:text=The%20Climate%20Change%20Act%202008,to%20deliver%20on%20these%20requirements.
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Sacred Lands? An editorial in the Wall Street Journal states:
With a stroke of his pen, President Biden on Tuesday walled off from development nearly a million acres of land that includes some of America’s richest uranium deposits. This is another monument to the Administration’s destructive energy policy.
The Antiquities Act of 1906 lets Presidents set aside federal land for national monuments to protect historic objects. Barack Obama used the law to remove millions of acres of federal land from oil and gas development. Yet even he resisted progressive calls to set aside uranium-rich land outside the Grand Canyon. Mr. Biden shows no such restraint.
On Tuesday he declared a national monument on 1,562 square miles in Arizona called Baaj Nwaavjo I’tah Kukveni, meaning ‘where tribes roam.’ The monument will conserve ‘landscape sacred to Tribal Nations and Indigenous peoples and advance President Biden’s historic climate and conservation agenda,’ the White House says.
The statement omits that the land also includes America’s only source of high-grade uranium ore that is economically competitive on the global market. The U.S. imports about 95% of uranium used for nuclear power reactors, mostly from Kazakhstan, Canada, Russia, and Australia. Russia is the U.S.’s third biggest uranium source.
Mr. Biden banned imports of Russian fossil fuels by executive order last spring, but U.S. nuclear plants continue to rely on Russian uranium for 12% of their fuel supply. The new national monument—the fifth of the Biden Presidency—will make it that much harder for the U.S. to replace Russian uranium. Vladimir Putin sends his thanks.
The unstated purpose of the national monument appears to be to block uranium mining. Arizona Democrat Rep. Raul Grijalva has proposed legislation that would permanently withdraw the Grand Canyon area from new mining claims. Democrats couldn’t pass this through Congress, so Mr. Biden is doing so by decree.
After discussing a 2021 study by USGS that mining will not contaminate water in the area, and that progressives are blocking mining for minerals needed for the “green transition,” the editorial concludes there is no limit to presidential powers under the Antiquities Act. Green groups wish to make such declarations permanent.
According to Wikipedia:
The historically Algonquian-speaking Delaware refer to themselves as Lenni Lenape. At first European contact in the early 17th century, the tribe lived along the Delaware River, named for Lord de la Warr, territory in lower present-day New York state and eastern New Jersey, and western Long Island, New York.
The Delaware nation was the first to sign a treaty with the new United States. They signed the treaty on September 17, 1778. Despite the treaty, the Delaware were forced to cede their Eastern lands and moved first to Ohio and later to Indiana (Plainfield), Missouri, Kansas, and Indian Territory. The ancestors of the Delaware Nation, following a different migration route, settled in Anadarko. Other Delaware bands moved north with the Iroquois after the American Revolutionary War to form two reserves in Ontario, Canada.
Shouldn’t the Delaware Valley, home to President Biden, be sacred lands to the Lenni Lenape who were thrown off the land despite a treaty? What about the river systems along the Anacostia and Potomac Rivers.
“Washington D.C. sits on the ancestral lands of the Anacostans (also documented as Pamunkey Indian Tribe Nacotchtank), and over time neighboring the Piscataway and Pamunkey peoples.”
Shouldn’t the Washington Metropolitan Area be sacred lands to these people as well? See Article # 2, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delaware_Tribe_of_Indians#:~:text=The%20historically%20Algonquian%2Dspeaking%20Delaware,western%20Long%20Island%2C%20New%20York, and https://www.ala.org/aboutala/indigenous-tribes-washington-dc
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Number of the Week: Minus 105 F (minus 76 C): The UK organization Sky News published a story that Antarctica is melting. On August 10 at 7:47 pm its time, the temperature of Vostok Station was minus 105 F (minus 76 C), with wind gusts of 13 mph, giving it a what Accuweather.com calls a “Real Feel” (how it feels on exposed skin) of minus 144 F (minus 98 C). It is doubtful that one would be really feeling that long.
Dry ice, frozen CO2, has a temperature of minus 109 F (minus 78 C). Above that, it sublimates (goes directly from solid to gas). Perhaps Sky News confused sublimation of dry ice (CO2) with melting ice (H2O). US DOE has announced a $1.2 billion program to pull carbon dioxide from the air. Perhaps it would make more sense to try to freeze CO2 out of the air at Vostok Station, then ship it to Mars in hopes of building a habitable atmosphere there. See links under Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up and Carbon Schemes.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Government’s Collusion With Social Media Is Worse Than You Realize
By Greg Salsbury, American Thinker, Aug 4, 2023
Founder says CIA & FBI control Wikipedia and made it “the most biased encyclopedia.”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 5, 2023
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Atmosphere and Greenhouse Gas Primer
By W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, March 3, 2023
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; EPA Docket Center ID No. EPA-HQ-OAR-2023-0072 FRL-8536-02-OAR; Mail Code 28221T
By Professors emeriti William Happer and Richard Lindzen, July 19, 2023
John Stossel Interviews Judith Curry: How Climate “Science” Got Hijacked by Alarmists
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Aug 8, 2023
Video
How That ‘Scientific Consensus’ on Climate Change Was ‘Manufactured’
By John Stossel, The Daily Signal, Aug 9, 2023 [H/t William Readdy]
A fairy story about offshore wind costs
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, Aug 7, 2023
Link to: Electricity Generation Costs 2023
By Staff, Department for Energy Security & Net Zero, August 2023
“A few days ago, Philip Hammond called for politicians to come clean about the costs of Net Zero. He was right to do so, and the first step along that road will be for ministers and civil servants to come clean about the cost of renewable energy. Nobody believes their fairy tales any longer.”
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Vanessa Kerry: driving action on climate change and health
By Udani Samarasekera, The Lancet, Aug 12, 2023
“’We are facing a profoundly urgent time…Climate change is the single greatest threat to humanity. And the way we experience that primarily and most intimately is through health. I think that we don’t do enough to acknowledge that as a global community or to recognise or remedy that’, says Vanessa Kerry, co-founder and Chief Executive Officer of the non-governmental organisation (NGO) Seed Global Health and the inaugural WHO Director-General Special Envoy for Climate Change and Health.”
Climate change impact on extreme weather events
Scientists investigated the effects of climate change on the intensity, frequency, and duration of extreme weather events
Press Release, NSF, Aug 8, 2023
Link to paper: Climate change will accelerate the high-end risk of compound drought and heatwave events
By Kumar P. Tripathy, et al., PNAS, July 3, 2023
From abstract: “We combine weekly drought and heatwave information for 26 climate divisions across the globe, employing historical and projected model output from eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 GCMs and three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Statistically significant trends are revealed in the CDHW characteristics for both recent observed and model simulated future period (2020 to 2099).”
NSF uses Rules of Life research to address societal challenges, from clean water to climate change
Press Release, NSF, Aug 8, 2023
Link to: Using the Rules of Life to Address Societal Challenges (URoL:ASC)
By Cliff Weil, URol,ASC, Oct 27, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Don’t bother with small ideas such as understanding the greenhouse effect. Instead, spend $27 million on Big Ideas, such as “Applying Rules of Life to Forecast Emergent Behavior of Phytoplankton and Advance Water Quality Management:”
Questioning the Orthodoxy
The Evil of Climate Alarmism: Dissecting Michael Walsh’s: Hoax of the Millennium
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Aug 5, 2023
The Climate Crisis Frenzy Is a Mass Hysteria Movement
Climate fear-mongering, eco-anxiety counseling and a rocky road to Third World status
By William Kovacs, WUWT, Aug 10, 2023
“William L. Kovacs has served as senior vice president for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, chief counsel to a congressional committee, and a partner in DC law firms. His book Reform the Kakistocracy (government by the least qualified, most unscrupulous) is the winner of the 2021 Independent Press Award for Political/Social Change.
Costs Beginning To Change The Net Zero Debate In The UK
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Aug 6, 2023
The IEA and Congressional Opponents of Fossil Fuels Are Chasing Windmills
By Benjamin Zycher, Real Clear Energy, August 08, 2023
5 New Studies Indicate There Has Been No Net Warming Since The 1700s
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Aug 10, 2023
Link to one study: A 278-Year Summer Minimum Temperature Reconstruction Based on Tree-Ring Data in the Upper Reaches of Dadu River
By Li, Jin, and Zheng, Forests, Apr 18, 2023
From Abstract: “A significant warming trend was found in the last few decades. Moreover, the multi-taper method (MTM) analysis indicated significant periodic changes in quasi-2-year and 21–35-year periods, for which the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) could be the key controlling factors.”
Change in US Administrations
Biden says he has ‘practically’ declared a climate emergency
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Aug 9, 2023
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
American Midwest and Climate Change: Life in America’s Breadbasket is Good and Getting Better
By Patric Michales et al., CO2 Coalition, July 17, 2023
Executive Summary: https://co2coalition.org/publications/american-midwest-and-climate-change/
Full report: https://co2coalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/American-Midwest-and-Climate-Change-digital.pdf
Virginia: Life Is Good and Getting Better
By Patrick Michaels et al, CO2 Coalition, June 6, 2022
Executive Summary: https://co2coalition.org/news/virginia-life-is-good-and-getting-better/
Full Report: https://co2coalition.org/publications/virginia-and-climate-change/
CO2 Plant Transpiration Reduction Is a 9.1 Factor Larger Global Warming Driver Than CO2 GHG.
By David Motes, Via P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Aug 5, 2023
Link to more detailed paper: CO2 Plant Transpiration Reduction Is a 9.1 factor Larger Global Warming
Driver than CO2 GHG. Solution: Increase Ocean Evaporation (<4% of CO2
Reduction Cost)
By David R. Motes, Aug 7, 2023
Problems in the Orthodoxy
China Abandons Paris Agreement and Makes Others’ Efforts Even More Futile
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Aug 7, 2023
“’Because Xi has explicitly and repeatedly said that his country will not reduce emissions until energy from renewables replaces that from coal-fired power plants, all these costs will result in no reduction in global emissions. The EPA has America on a path to all pain and no gain.’”
China’s unwavering commitment to coal is a bucket of cold water over green global visions
By Vijay Jayaraj, The Hill, Aug 9, 2023
Oceans Retain Methane: New ‘Nature’ Study Finds Very Little Danger Of Methane Reaching Surface
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Aug 9, 2023
Link to paper: Negligible atmospheric release of methane from decomposing hydrates in mid-latitude oceans,
By DongJoo Joung, et al., Nature Geoscience, Oct 17, 2022
[SEPP Comment; Also published by USGS, same date.]
The Origin of the Hawaii Fires/Preventing a Similar Tragedy in the Future
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Aug 11, 2023
Wind-Driven Wildfires on Maui
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Aug 9, 2023
Science, Policy, and Evidence
The Tories are trapped by net zero legislation
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 11, 2023
“’ When in 2019, Theresa May, in one of her final acts as prime minister, made 2050 a legally binding net zero target, few objected and the ambition was reaffirmed in the Tory election manifesto. Now the MPs need to explain the costs of their decisions to their constituents.’”
Measurement Issues — Surface
That’s Why They Call It Death Valley…
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Aug 7, 2023
Global Warming Brings Near Record Cold to the Tropical Pacific
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 5, 2023
“The Queen of Tonga (21° South – tropical South Pacific) distributed blankets to help her people survive a dangerous outbreak of global warming.”
OilPrice.com Contributor Misses the UHI Influence on Phoenix Warming Trend
By Linnea Lueken, Climate Realism, Aug 4, 2023
“Google Earth capture of the Sky Harbor ASOS weather station.”
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
Global Temperature Report, July 2023
By Staff, Earth System Science Center, The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Map: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2023/July2023/JULY_2023.png
Graph: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2023/July2023/tlt_update_bar.png
Text, Aug 3, 2023: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2023/July2023/GTR_202307JUL_2_RAJ.pdf
UAH: El Nino Rescues Global Warming July 2023
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Aug 11, 2023
Record Global Temperatures Driven by Hunga-Tonga Volcanic Water Vapor – Visualized
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Aug 5, 2023
Changing Weather
In one picture: Why we have a slow Atlantic hurricane season
By Ross Hays, Via WUWT, Aug 11, 2023
So Many Global Parts Not Boiling
By Ron Clutz, His Blog, Aug 6, 2023
Is Our Cold, Wet Summer Due To Global Warming?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 5, 2023
“In reality, there is no such thing as ‘normal July weather’. It can veer from one extreme to another from one year to the next.
“You don’t need to invoke the climate bogeyman to explain English weather.”
Shock News! It’s Hot In Portugal!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 9, 2023
Changing Seas
Climate change causes another year of record highest ever coral cover on Earth’s largest reef
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 10, 2023
Despite Alarmists Denials Statue of Liberty Photos Expose Sea Level Rise Acceleration Failed Projections
By Larry Hamlin, WUWT, Aug 6, 2023
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Climate activists are silent on polar bears because their doom-mongering blew up in their faces
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Aug 8, 2023
Growth Of The Petermann Glacier Since 2012 [Greenland]
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Aug 11, 2023
Greenland’s Ice Melts Thanks To Global Boiling!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 6, 2023
Tonga explosion’s weather effects probably small
The weather in many regions of the world has been particularly noteworthy recently. But what’s behind it?
By David Whitehouse, Net Zero Watch, Aug 8, 2023
Hunga-Tonga Mysteries
By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, Aug 7, 2023
Lowering Standards
Maui fires suggest dangerous new phase for disasters
By Zack Budryk and Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Aug 11, 2023
NOAA forecasters increase Atlantic hurricane season prediction to ‘above normal’
Likelihood of greater activity rises due to record-warm sea surface temperatures
Press Release, NOAA, Aug 10, 2023
[SEPP Comment: From 30% chance of above normal to 60% chance of above normal in a 2 months?]
The Tale Of Two Summers–2023 v 1976
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 11, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Climate Crazy? Andrew Griffiths’ “Ecocide” Threat
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Aug 10, 2023
“But what is ‘ecocide’? As defined at the alarmists Inside Climate News:
“’At the close of World War II, when Soviet and Allied forces liberated the Nazi concentration camps at Auschwitz and Dachau…. a new word—genocide—was needed to describe it….Another crime of similar magnitude is now at large in the world…. That crime is called ecocide.’
“And that is getting crazy, folks.”
Continued Major Errors and Misinformation In Seattle Times Climate Stories: Damaging and Unnecessary.
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Aug 7, 2023
“The article claims that drier conditions this year reduced hydropower and is a sign of climate change (global warming). Strangely, the article suggests that wetter conditions in California, as observed this year, are also a sign of climate change. Earlier articles in the ST suggested drying in CA is a sign of climate change.”
Antarctica Melting At -60C (-76F)
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Aug 6, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Climate Fakery Part 21
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Aug 8, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Fake ocean temperatures off Florida.]
What Sky Did Not Tell You About Antarctic Ice
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 9, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Seventy Percent Of Brits Support Freezing In The Dark
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Aug 9, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
“The Little Green Book” antidote to propaganda for kids, teens and adults by Ian Plimer
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 7, 2023
How To Push a Climate Hoax 10: Turning Boring Statistics into a Hollywood Horror Show
By Jim Steele, WUWT, Aug 9, 2023
“The formula for Hollywood horror films is simple. Take a normal sized creature and magnify it into a gigantic threat suggesting we’re all going to die. Just consider King Kong, Godzilla, Alien, Jaws, Alligators, Frankenfish. To give credibility to those monsters, scary movies include a few scientists claiming those giants are “existential threats” due to pollution or radiation created by humans.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda
Claim: Aussies Should Learn Communication Skills from Greta Thunberg
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 6, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
Call to Action: Rod Guice to the Society of Petroleum Engineers
By Robert Bradley Jr, Master Resource, Aug 7, 2023
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Treasury announces tax credit bonus for renewables in low-income areas
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Aug. 10, 2023
Questioning European Green
Lord Frost ridicules Whitehall renewables cost estimates
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Aug 7, 2023
Questioning Green Elsewhere
The Science Is Clear: Greens Should Support the Pebble Mine Project in Alaska
By Rick Whitbeck, Real Clear Energy, August 08, 2023
Alberta Suspends Approvals for Green Energy Projects, such as Wind or Solar Power
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Aug 5, 2023
Green Energy: Scientists Propose Turning Your House Foundations into a Scary Supercapacitor
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 7, 2023
Funding Issues
$1.3 Trillion Accounting Error
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Aug 8, 2023
The Political Games Continue
The Labour Party–Where 6 Is Greater Than 12!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 7, 2023
Litigation Issues
GAO Sues New Jersey AG for Climate Contract
By Staff, Government Accountability & Oversight, Aug 4, 2023
“The raging issue is, what did the politicians know and when did they know it? Are they knowingly double-dipping to pursue major donors’ pet project, or have they been kept in the dark about the payments already being made?”
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
North Sea tax credits are not subsidie
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 8, 2023
Link to report: Taxing the North Sea
By Tim Worstall, Global Warming Policy Foundation, 2023
From the report: “People really do invest on the basis of expected post-tax returns.”
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Most companies buying renewable energy certificates aren’t actually reducing emissions
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 10, 2023
“I would not bother reading the whole article. It’s s statement of the bloomin obvious, making an argument I have been arguing for years:”
[SEPP Comment: Surprise! Surprise!]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
Did DOE “flip the bird” to the DC Circuit?
By Mark Krebs, Master Resource, Aug 8, 2023
“Has DOE, a taxpayer organization working against consumers, gone rogue? The answer is affirmative because DOE has clearly demonstrated its vindictive nature towards anyone legally challenging their ‘authority’ in the past.”
New EPA Tailpipe Standards Call Electric Vehicle Promises Into Question
By Ethan Brown, Real Clear Energy, August 07, 2023
Energy Issues – Non-US
Rishi Sunak eases up on Climate action and suddenly is a lot more popular
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 7, 2023
Germany – UK – France Weather-Dependent “Renewables” 2022 : 2023
By Ed Hoskins, His Blog, Accessed Aug 10, 2023 [H/t WUWT]
How faulty wind turbines threaten to bring down a German industrial powerhouse
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 8, 2023
Labour’s Energy Plans Will Lead To Blackouts
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 8, 2023
Battery of the Nation goes flat
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 11, 2023
Energy Issues — US
Pennsylvania’s Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative Relies on Faulty Data – Why RGGI is a “solution in search of a problem”
By Staff, CO2 Coalition, June 8, 2022
Executive Summary: https://co2coalition.org/publications/pennsylvanias-regional-greenhouse-gas-initiative-relies-on-faulty-data-why-rggi-is-a-solution-in-search-of-a-problem/
Full Report: https://co2coalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/RGGI-Paper.pdf
Washington’s Control of Energy
As Heat Waves and Repairs Squeeze Oil Refineries, Joe Biden Doesn’t Sweat
By Roy Mathews, Real Clear Energy, August 07, 2023
The Critical Minerals Quagmire Hurts Consumers
By Kristen Walker, Real Clear Energy, August 09, 2023
Return of King Coal?
How—and why—to defend coal
4 key practices I shared with the Congressional Coal Caucus
By Alex Epstein, His Blog, Aug 10, 2023
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Energy Department gets energy gain from nuclear fusion for the second time
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Aug 7, 2023
U.S. Nuclear Energy Policy: Stuck on Stupid!
By Duggan Flanakin, Cornwall Alliance, August 9, 2023
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
“Turbinegeddon” — Siemens loses €4.5 billion because collecting free energy is not cheap
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 9, 2023
Wind Energy: A Doomed Industry
By John Hinderaker, Power Line, Aug 8, 2023
“’ MacKay called the idea of relying solely on renewables an ‘appalling delusion.’ He continued, ‘There’s so much delusion and I think it’s so dangerous for humanity that people allow themselves to have these delusions that they’re willing to not think carefully about the numbers and the realities, and the laws of physics and the realities of engineering… humanity really does need to pay attention to arithmetic, and the laws of physics.’”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Workable Rules Needed for U.S. Clean Hydrogen Economy
By Doug Vine, Real Clear Energy, August 10, 2023
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
The Real-World Costs Of Backing Up Weather-Dependent Electricity Generation With Battery Storage
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Aug 8, 2023
Green Tasmania, the “Battery of Australia”, Runs Out of Electricity
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Aug 11, 2023
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Think megawatt hours of gasoline
By David Wojick, CFACT, Aug 6, 2023
The Uncomfortable Truth About the Global Push for Electric Vehicles
By Larry Behrens, Real Clear Energy, August 08, 2023
How to paralyze a city with one easy EV “update”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 8, 2023
China ‘will use electric cars to spy on Britain’
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 11, 2023
Biden administration announces $1.2B in funding for projects to pull carbon from the air
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Aug 11, 2023
“The funds come from a broader $3.5 billion program for regional hubs to capture and remove carbon from the air that was passed under the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.”
Carbon Shell Game
By Tony Heller, Hix Blog, Aug 9, 2023
California Dreaming by New York
New York State Advanced Clean Cars
By Roger Caizza, His Blog, Aug 6, 2023 [H/t WUWT]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Climate Fakery Part 22
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Aug 10, 2023
“It is impossible to keep up with the barrage of climate propaganda coming from the press and politicians, but here are a few of my favorite stories from this week.”
“If a Cactus Can’t Survive This, Neither Can You”
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Aug 8, 2023
New York Times claims ‘climate change’ means ‘the end of the summer vacation as we know it’ – ‘Our relationship to travel has reached a tipping point’
By Marc Morano, Via WUWT, Aug 6, 2023
ARTICLES
1. Washington Has Energy Production All Wrong
Biden was wrong to back a 1978 law mandating the use of coal, and he’s wrong to push solar and wind now.
By Harold Hamm, WSJ, Aug. 6, 2023
TWTW Summary: The CEO of the first company to apply modern hydraulic fracturing and directional drilling to shale formations to produce oil writes:
Gasoline prices had their biggest one-day increase in a year on July 25, rising to an eight-month high, while oil passed $80 a barrel. More than half a century of experience working in the oil industry tells me that with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries doing all it can to keep prices high, the only way to prevent them from rising higher is to produce more oil and gas here at home.
President Biden has pursued the opposite strategy. Instead of increasing production, he wants to mandate that Americans use less—by banning or restricting the use of gas stoves, gas heat, air conditioning and even cars with combustible engines. That is a recipe for lower living standards, higher prices and a waning of America’s geopolitical leadership.
Every time government intervenes in unpredictable energy markets, politicians get it wrong. Take the Fuel Use Act of 1978. The young Sen. Joe Biden and Rep. Al Gore were among those who championed the act, which mandated the use of coal to generate electricity because so-called experts were sure the U.S. was running out of oil and natural gas.
Then in 1980 the Carter administration spent billions of dollars on renewable-energy subsidies and even a business called Synthetic Fuels Corp. that went bankrupt six years later. When Ronald Reagan let the market work by deregulating energy, oil production soared and prices tumbled. No one worried about running out of oil anymore.
That is, until Barack Obama came into office. In 2011, when gasoline prices rose, Mr. Obama said that ‘we can’t just drill our way out of the problem.’ He worried that America was going to run out of places to drill and that energy companies would want to drill on the Washington Mall. So instead Mr. Obama spent millions on now bankrupt propositions such as the solar-energy company Solyndra.
The politicians weren’t paying attention to the amazing shale revolution driven by such oil and natural gas companies as Continental Resources. Horizontal drilling exploded in the late 2000s in the Bakken Shale in North Dakota, the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania, and later in the Permian Basin in Texas. America has doubled its oil and gas output in less than 15 years.
Hamm states that after spending trillions on solar and wind, they are not reliable, then continues:
We can safely harvest American energy while protecting our environment too. In the past 20 years, despite large increases in oil and gas production, annual U.S. carbon-dioxide emissions from such sources have decreased, according to the Energy Information Administration. Such technologies as horizontal drilling have also allowed a single well on less than an acre to reach oil fields miles away in all directions.
I like to call the shale revolution the ‘trillion-dollar swing.’ It’s money that stayed in the U.S., was invested here, and produced a bounty of clean, affordable American energy. We’re not going to run out, not for 100 years or more.
Politicians over the past 50 years have had a rotten record of predicting the next big thing in energy. They say the technology for battery storage and solar panels is improving, but the same can be said for fossil-fuel production.
We can all agree that when it comes to the most valuable natural resource—energy—it’s far smarter to trust markets than politicians to ensure a bountiful future.
************************
2. A Gift to Putin: No Uranium Mining Near the Grand Canyon
A new government land grab makes the U.S. more dependent on Russia.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, Aug. 8, 2023
TWTW Summary: Covered in the text in This Week section above
*******************
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“The important thing is not to stop questioning”
This has certainly been taken to heart by the usual suspects – Rahmsdorf, Mann and [Friederike] Otto etc in the case of ‘“A critical assessment of extreme events trends in times of global warming’”
To his credit Richard Betts opposed the idea of retraction. At least he wobbles. The others are adamant: counter narrative papers must not be published, be they peer reviewed or not. But, of course, this reprehensible conduct is nothing new….
” … I can’t see either of these papers being in the next IPCC report. Kevin [Trenberth] and I will keep them out somehow, even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!” —Dr. Phil Jones, Director of the Climatic Research Unit, disclosed Climategate e-mail, July 8, 2004
Well, it isn’t just Jones, Briffa, Trenberth et al, it’s all their successors. too – and they are all the more vehement, with the emphasis very much on their ‘feelings’ and protecting their consensus science narrative.
I worked in brewing science and production for 18 years and I can tell you that if anyone dared to extrapolate or fiddle a result they were toast. Not so in the amorphous blob of ‘climate science’ – and nuclear physics dudes… keep out. The more wrong, the more devious and bent they are, the more successful.
Picture it! Michael Mann et al surfing on huge waves of disinformation peddled by a more than supine media. That’s what we’ve got.
“Either the consensus of the world’s climate experts that climate change is causing a very clear increase in many types of weather extremes is wrong, or a couple of nuclear physics dudes in Italy are wrong.””
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/think-of-the-implications-of-publishing
Mann is deeply envious of real scientists, in fact I’d go as far as to say he really loathes them.
“I worked in brewing science and production…” I knew there was something about you that I liked.
I’m in a position where I have direct access to “scientists” like Mann. What I find most amazing is that these people are actually highly intelligent but rationality has somehow been squeezed out of their brains.
I’m edging closer to retirement so I pledge that my questioning of the “science” will become more straightforward. I don’t expect that there is any hope for Mann, but proper questioning can have a positive benefit on mankind.
I guess my problem is I’m grounded in experimentation and replication.
Politics trumps reason it would seem with Mann etc because nobody with a conscience would produce a bogus hockey schtick and push it to change the world
The first stories of the tragedy of Lahaina have omitted at least two important possibilities. In an event of this nature there is always the chance that it might be a result of arson. That likelihood doesn’t seem to be mentioned in the media. Wind gusts whipping power lines around are just as likely to trip breakers and shut off power as set grass on fire.
A second, and more general consideration is the establishment and maintenance of dense communities in unsuitable locations. Hilo, a town on the Big Island, was very nearly destroyed by a tsunami that killed 159 people on April 1, 1946. Even today, the small city is clustered around a bay where such a thing could occur once more.
Floods, most often the result of rivers rising over their banks, happen next to those rivers. Building homes and cities next to rivers means accepting the fact that they’re subject to destruction in the future. It should be no surprise when it happens.
There’s a reason that Inupiats lived in very small groups. The presence of permafrost means surface water from ponds and streams is the only water available. It also means that sewage disposal is very problematical. Gathering a large number Eskimos in one spot leads to serious health problems.
The location of new facilities and keeping existing ones should be done with an examination of the possibilities of natural disaster foremost. The new chip fabs being built in the US won’t be sited on a flood plain.
If it isn’t arson is it spontaneous combustion?
Warning of strong dry winds in Hawaii.