Yes, No, Maybe – but Its Going to be Something! Settled Climate Science in 2023

Essay by Eric Worrall

Climate change could be supercharging the weather this year – but we’re not sure exactly how?

How El Niño, climate change and warming oceans could combine to supercharge the world’s weather

By weather reporter Tyne Logan

Of course, in any one year there is always going to be extreme weather events.

But Dr Gallant said this year, records were not just being broken — they were being smashed.

“It’s really made us stand up and take notice, because it’s not just in one place,” she said.

A sign of what’s to come

It is still too too early to say whether the individual weather events were made more likely by climate change, or other natural influences like El Niño.

But Dr Gallant said what was clear was the nature of weather events had changed, and it told a story of what the world may be in for in the year to come, particularly in the realm of heat.

“We’re entering territory where climate change is starting to become a much more dominant signal than it has been in the past, and things are only going to get more interesting,” she said.

Read more:

How can Dr Gallant say the nature of weather events has changed, that the current cluster of weather events is a sign of things to come, while simultaneously admitting she doesn’t know whether climate change or the likely gathering El Nino has affected current weather events?

If Dr. Gallant was to make a firm statement, like “the incidence of extreme weather events will double over the next 10 years”, or “Antarctic sea ice will disappear completely by 2030”, those would be testable prediction.

But the global climate has a history of embarrassing climate scientists who make testable predictions.

Perhaps climate scientists have learned caution, through watching their colleagues endure multiple ice free arctic and end of snow humiliations over the years.

For more information on the claimed dangers of extreme events, go to our Claimed Dangers page on


Check our Failed Predictions Timeline

Correction (EW): h/t The Final Nail, he -> she.

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Tom Halla
July 15, 2023 6:14 pm

It is the ENSO, so sloppy reporters get to cycle from floods in Australia and drought in California to floods in California and drought in Australia. BFD!

July 15, 2023 6:16 pm

How can Dr Gallant say the nature of weather events has changed, that the current cluster of weather events is a sign of things to come, while simultaneously admitting he doesn’t know whether climate change or the likely gathering El Nino has affected current weather events?

Reading the article, Dr Gallant is a ‘she’ and not a ‘he’. You may want to change that, Eric. No need to publish this comment.

Reply to  TheFinalNail
July 16, 2023 7:17 am

I didn’t see in the article were Dr Gallant stated a preferred pronoun so maybe the report miss gendered the good doctor.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  TheFinalNail
July 16, 2023 7:18 am

That could change in 20 minutes.

Chris Hanley
July 15, 2023 6:33 pm

There is a note of hysteria in the ABC article as is usual in articles on the weather.
Both the writer and her main reference Dr Ailie Gallant look like they are barely out of college, they don’t have the depth of knowledge and experience to be taken too seriously IMO.

Nick Stokes
July 15, 2023 6:36 pm

“but we’re not sure exactly how?”

It’s looking like a candidate for hottest year in the record. June was by a wide margin the hottest June (you read it here at WUWT first). There is a new table maintained at Moyhu, which shows temperatures for each month in descending order of temperature, and also annual, with 2023 YTD included. 2023 is almost warmest already, and seems to be getting warmer.

Here is the GISS entry in the table:
comment image

Nick Stokes
Reply to  Eric Worrall
July 15, 2023 7:22 pm

The trend is getting rather steep. At some stage, something’s gotta give.

Reply to  Nick Stokes
July 15, 2023 7:48 pm

At some stage, something’s gotta give.

What exactly is the “something” that’s going to give, Nick?

C’mon man, science and all that . . .

Reply to  Mr.
July 16, 2023 7:57 am

“At some point, you run out of other people’s money,” as Thatcher said.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Eric Worrall
July 15, 2023 10:54 pm

I’ll go with UAH6’s 0.13℃/decade over the past 43+ years. Anybody else want to throw their favorite trend into the arena?

Reply to  Dave Fair
July 15, 2023 11:27 pm

UAH has basically ZERO trend apart from El Nino events

Dave Fair
Reply to  bnice2000
July 15, 2023 11:38 pm

Meh. Its still just a tad warmer than the very cold 1970s. A good thing.

Reply to  Dave Fair
July 16, 2023 1:27 am

Most definitely a good thing. 🙂

The Icelandic sea ice data shows that 1979 was up there with the extent of the LIA !

An extreme high !

Ocean creatures don’t like high levels of Arctic sea ice all year !

Reply to  bnice2000
July 16, 2023 1:14 pm


And all El Ninos are caused by reduced amounts of SO2
aerosols in the atmosphere.

See: “The definitive cause of La Nina and El Nino Events”

Nick Stokes
Reply to  Eric Worrall
July 16, 2023 2:58 am

Which trend would that be Nick?”
Quoting Eric
We’re on a long term warming trend”

Reply to  Nick Stokes
July 16, 2023 3:59 am

Natural warming from solar powered El Ninos.

CO2 has nothing to do with it.

And be very glad about that slight warming out of the LIA.

Be very glad about the increased atmospheric CO2 that provides food for the human population.

Or are you one of those that hates human population?

Reply to  Nick Stokes
July 16, 2023 5:30 am

So we are on a long term (past) warming trend? Maybe.
There was a choice for Nature.
Warming, cooling or no change.
How to define no change option? Why, traditionally, we do it mathematically with a calculated estimate of variability that encloses (say) 95% of the past observations.
In other words, we do not know with confidence if it is warming or cooling until we know and agree on the natural variability.
That involves identification of variability that is not natural.
That identification HAS NOT YET BEEN DONE.
Sure, people say it looks like we are warming. Not all places are, explain that.
So we use math.
Here is how to use math the modern way, using the poisonous element lead, Pb.
The US has about 10 deaths per year from lead poisoning diagnosed and on death certificates. But that is not adventuresome math. The Lancet journal has a paper that estimates that up to 421,000 US deaths are occurring each year because of lead contamination.
See, with modern math you can exaggerate by 42,000 times and ask readers to believe that you are a credible author.
Back to climate change and its offshoot daily weather variation, please define the uncertainty bounds of your observations and explain why we are looking at something more than expected noise.
Geoff S

Reply to  Eric Worrall
July 16, 2023 8:11 am

Whatever trend is going up right now, will be the only one that matters.
Then when that one stops going in the right direction, he’ll jump to some other indicator that is doing what he wants to see.

Dave O.
Reply to  Nick Stokes
July 15, 2023 9:02 pm

South Dakota has “suffered” record low temperatures this July. I hope it’s not a trend.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Dave O.
July 16, 2023 6:55 am

Oklahoma is nowhere near having a record hot summer. We have had some hot days, but all-in-all it has been rather mild and with plenty of rain, which is unusual for this time of year. July and August are our driest months.

And speaking of hot temperatures, keep in mind that the northern hemisphere is now in the hottest part of the summer, so we should be experiencing hot temperatures. it’s not unusual.

This Weather Attribution/CO2 hype is over the top. Every severe thunderstorm is caused by human-derived CO2, according to the Climate Change Alarmists. It doesn’t matter that the Alarmists can’t show any connection between CO2 and any weather event, they still claim there is one. It’s magical/delusional thinking.

Reply to  Dave O.
July 16, 2023 7:36 am

Yeah. Not suffering 110+ degrees multiple times in July is a real drag.
(SD resident)

Reply to  Nick Stokes
July 15, 2023 9:26 pm

At some stage, something’s gotta give.”

Yep, they will eventually run out of “adjustments” they can make !

Happened in the USA when they started using USCRN.

Reply to  Nick Stokes
July 15, 2023 9:38 pm

Perhaps not while the changes are below quantities that can actually be measured.

Reply to  Nick Stokes
July 16, 2023 2:49 am

The trend is getting rather steep. At some stage, something’s gotta give.

That’ll be when sanity returns to science and journalism and the upward trend in scary stories about the weather reaches its peak

Reply to  Nick Stokes
July 16, 2023 8:10 am

Actually it isn’t.
The only thing that gives will be the country’s ability to pay for all this climate warming nonsense.

Reply to  Nick Stokes
July 15, 2023 7:17 pm

As much as you would love that, I have my doubts.
The SH won’t contribute as much as the NH and their summer is peaking.

Joe Gordon
Reply to  Nick Stokes
July 15, 2023 7:26 pm

What’s utterly fascinating about the faith of Nick and people like him is that they have gone all-in on this temperature modeling concept. If you look at his chart going back, the 1930s were colder than the 1970s.

Yet, when we don’t have these carefully modeled and tended and altered records, the 1930s were clearly part of an extensive warm period that rivals anything we’ve seen recently.

Now it’s obviously not science, but you can’t read novels like The Grapes of Wrath and come away thinking that what’s going on today isn’t somewhat cyclical.

If Nick and his breathless cohorts were in any way right, why was 2016 so warm? Why does 1998 (25 years ago) appear at the top of many lists, recently? And so will the near future, no doubt. El Nino might have something to do with that, yes?

If these things didn’t run in cycles. If CO2 had anything more than the tiniest effect on temperature, these things would absolutely be linear. They know this. They’ve doctored away the 1930s. If they didn’t, no one would believe a word of this. But they have to start with something real before the doctoring starts. That’s why 2016 still stands out and you don’t see a whole lot of 2020 or 2021 near the tops of any lists.

I’ll also point out Nick’s choice of what to post. He’s not an honest person. We know that. He even knows that, deep down. This monthly ranking thing… he picked the one record that shows the least influence from the late ’90s El Nino. Because that was 25 years ago – CO2 was a lot lower then.

The problem with his religion is that it requires constant change to the historical record. That’s working for now – the BBC loves its airport runway one-second records. But at some point, people are going to question these changes. I hope. There are a lot of Nicks out there.

Reply to  Nick Stokes
July 15, 2023 7:29 pm

Mo-Who is not a place to get reliable records or data.. period.

GISS is a fabrication using a whole heap of totally unfit for purpose, shoddy, urban and airport tainted sites, twisted and mal-adjusted to say whatever the AGW zealots in charge want it to say.

Reply to  bnice2000
July 15, 2023 7:36 pm

Also, Current global temperatures are well below what they have been for most of the last 10,000 years.

Even during the Neoglaciation that started some 3000 years ago and led down to the coldest period in those 10,000 years, the warmer peaks were when humans most flourished.

The globe is still very much in a cool phase of the Holocene, barely a degree or so above the LIA, … and deaths from cold outnumber deaths from heat by a factor of some 10 to 20 times.

Chris Hanley
Reply to  bnice2000
July 15, 2023 10:23 pm

This page has a number of ice core reconstructions of the Holocene over different time periods.
Ignoring the HADCRUT4 temperature additions, what is striking are the large temperature fluctuations apparent at relatively high data resolution (maybe 50 year) as opposed to the usual reconstructions where the thermometer record is shown on the end of a very low resolution smoothed reconstruction giving the impression that the twentieth century temperature trend was abnormal.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Chris Hanley
July 15, 2023 11:40 pm

Yea, Mannian proxies with a 200 year resolution don’t say a thing to me.

Reply to  Dave Fair
July 16, 2023 1:27 am

Particularly when used up-side-down !

Dave Fair
Reply to  bnice2000
July 15, 2023 10:57 pm

And long-term records show the globes’ extreme weather is not worsening. UN IPCC AR6 says so.

Reply to  Nick Stokes
July 15, 2023 7:59 pm

Bow down to the models ye heathens. 😉

Reply to  Nick Stokes
July 15, 2023 10:29 pm

In the surface data…

You left out that part. From humanity’s best dataset, 2023 is at 0.20C.

Reply to  Nick Stokes
July 16, 2023 12:50 am

The trend is getting rather steep. At some stage, something’s gotta give.

Well old mate, you know ..trends..

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Nick Stokes
July 16, 2023 7:13 am

This is the problem with averages, especially of temperatures that shouldn’t be averaged. It gives the false impression that something global is happening.

June, and July, in the Pacific Northwest has been very cool. We’ve barely been getting into the 70s on some days so far in July. In June, we never got out of the 60s in my neck of the woods. Is it local? Yes. All weather and climate is local.

general custer
Reply to  Jeff Alberts
July 16, 2023 9:02 am

There’s a concern that in certain locations daily weather recording is being compromised by automation.

Richard Page
Reply to  Nick Stokes
July 16, 2023 9:52 am

Nick, I still don’t understand this weird obsession of yours with fractions of degrees of temperature.

Nick Stokes
Reply to  Richard Page
July 16, 2023 2:27 pm

Because it shows a trend. Small fractions of a degree per year, but before long, that turns into multiple degrees.

Reply to  Nick Stokes
July 16, 2023 2:49 pm

Small fractions of “ADJUSTMENTS” create that trend.

Before long it turns into multiple degrees.

That is “the way” in climate science™. !

Reply to  Nick Stokes
July 16, 2023 4:27 pm

On record [of 100 years or so out of 4 billion or so]

July 15, 2023 6:46 pm

Yes, no, maybe, but no matter what happens or doesn’t happen it will be mankind’s fault; according to all climate activists/specialists/experts.

July 15, 2023 6:53 pm

How can Dr Gallant say the nature of weather events has changed, that the current cluster of weather events is a sign of things to come, while simultaneously admitting she doesn’t know whether climate change or the likely gathering El Nino has affected current weather events?

Because she’s grown up with the internet and touchscreen that reports every bad news weather event around the globe 24/7/365 and why the weather dooming has so much traction in the developed world.

With so much seeming global command at the fingertip it’s a short hop to believing the weather can be controlled like so much of our modern urban lifestyle. After all in the thermostat we trust from home to the car/bus/tram/train/aircraft to the office and back again.

Reply to  observa
July 16, 2023 4:54 pm

Another mush brained Ph.D making nonsense noises regarding “climate”. A scientist? Not in the classical sense of the word. Science is never settled, someone once said.

July 15, 2023 6:57 pm

Let’s re-cap what was said here……

…….It is still too too early to say whether the individual weather events were made more likely by climate change,

…….“We’re entering territory where climate change is starting to become a much more dominant signal 

”Dr Gallant is also a passionate science educator,”
This is science today…..

Reply to  Mike
July 15, 2023 7:09 pm

“There been a collective feeling of, ‘Woah, that’s insane’ from myself and quite a few of my colleagues this year,” Monash University associate professor Ailie Gallant said.
How El Niño, climate change and warming oceans could combine to supercharge the world’s weather (
The good perfessors are on their touchphones quite a lot feeling the global weather vibe in their airconditioned Sandstones but we don’t hear much about the weather just outside their office windows.

Reply to  Mike
July 16, 2023 4:40 am

”Dr Gallant is also a passionate science climate science-fiction educator,”

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Mike
July 16, 2023 7:19 am

Just add “alarmism” after each mention of “climate change”, and the article will be 100% accurate.

J Boles
July 15, 2023 7:10 pm

Gotta say SOMETHING about CC, but nothing concrete, keep it vague, but put something out there, just to keep their attention on the issue, right?
Well, actually…
Articles like that one only condition people to ignore all articles and worrying about CC.

Reply to  J Boles
July 15, 2023 7:30 pm

Yes and about as surprising as Joe Biden sniffing another little girl.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Scissor
July 15, 2023 11:43 pm

Well, nibbling on them is a change. But not a good one for the world.

Reply to  Scissor
July 16, 2023 12:33 am

But Old Joe sniffing little girls is more predictable, about 90% vs predictions from ‘climate change’ charlatans at 0%

Richard Page
Reply to  Scissor
July 16, 2023 9:45 am

Yup. Finland this time. Bizarre.

John Hultquist
July 15, 2023 7:27 pm

My high temperature for today in Central Washington USA
was 99°F (37.2 C).This coming Monday I am told to
expect 73°F or 22.8 °C.
Can I blame climate change?
Maybe Ailie Gallant can come visit and I will show her the same plants now growing that were here a thousand years ago. She can explain to me when I can expect tomatoes to set fruit and produce a good crop.

Dave Fair
Reply to  John Hultquist
July 15, 2023 11:45 pm

When I last checked the temperature here in Las Vegas was 115℉.

Reply to  Dave Fair
July 22, 2023 2:04 pm

So? Lost Wages never was meant for human habitation.

Dave Fair
Reply to  markm
July 22, 2023 2:46 pm

You seem to think I was complaining.

July 15, 2023 7:39 pm

Again, we have the climate worriers praying for an El Nino.

It is though they know it is the only way they will get any warming. 🙂

July 15, 2023 7:53 pm

I’ll repeat a comment I made on an earlier thread today –

What “qualifies” anyone to claim to be a “climate scientist / expert”?

From my observations, all one needs is a capacity for downloading tables of temperatures values from a variety of free websites, and a basic proficiency in Excel.

Then one just applies lots of assumptions and conjectures to the values in the cells and formulae in the Excel spreadsheet, run it a few times until one produces the results one envisioned beforehand.

Then prepare a media release with another doom-laden message posing as a new “scientific paper”, send the package off to a few publishers with a stable of on-board peer reviewers, and voila – you’re now the 12,672nd person to be referred to as a “climate expert”.

Reply to  Mr.
July 15, 2023 9:43 pm

It certainly would be nice if there were someplace that explains, in enough detail to actually be useful, how to locate and download measured temperature data in a form that can be loaded into spreadsheets.

Reply to  AndyHce
July 15, 2023 10:45 pm


Reply to  Mr.
July 16, 2023 12:35 am

I just thought I only had to identify as a ‘client expert’ problem solved.
You make it sound like a lot of cut and paste..

Reply to  nhasys
July 16, 2023 8:18 am

Self identifying only works if you agree with what the other, already self-identified climate experts are already saying.

Steve Case
July 15, 2023 8:07 pm

“The global climate has a history of embarrassing climate scientists who make testable predictions.

Perhaps climate scientists have learned caution, through watching their colleagues endure multiple ice free arctic and end of snow humiliations over the years.”

All climate scientists need to do is follow “The golden rule of climate science” which says, “Never make a prediction that expires before you do.”

Dave Fair
Reply to  Eric Worrall
July 15, 2023 11:47 pm

Gimmie dat climate porn, now!

Gregory Woods
Reply to  Eric Worrall
July 16, 2023 3:31 am

Where is Country Joe and the Fish when we need a good song to die by?

July 15, 2023 8:35 pm

With my limited knowledge on climate, weather etc., I have come to the following conclusion:

1. There is weather, a sort of daily thing that no Bureau of Meteorology seems able to correctly predict
2. There is climate, which covers a long period of time and tends to change due to many things. 
3. Weather is weather or extreme weather, but still a small time period, days or a week 
4. Climate seems to want to do its own thing and I suspect the world is still getting over the Little Ice Age, so it’s going to keep getting warm. It will once it reaches its warm peak then start to get cold. (Totally inconsiderate thing climate).
Floods, drought and bush fires seem to be a long-standing practice by climate, (or should that be weather, since some people seem to interchange these two words), in Australia. 
Long standing means way before any white civilisation even touched the shores of Australia. 
The atmospheric rivers and flooding in California, I am sure have happened all the time not just a new phenomenon.
Cyclones and tornadoes are nothing new. Their levels of destruction only seem to be huge in modern times as we have built cities in their path and wonder why the buildings get damaged or destroyed.
I remember the days of heat waves in Adelaide where it was over 35, but heat waves then were for 5 days not 3 as now. I also remember weeks in January when it was cold, windy and raining, and fires were lit. 
I find the article very weak in discussion and some what cheery picking of detail with little thought.
Ever thought climate is something we can not change.
I am beginning to think “climate change” mantra is either about trying to stop any change happening with climate; or more seriously trying to control the population.
But this is only occurring in the western nations, so it seems suspicious.

Reply to  nhasys
July 15, 2023 11:33 pm

but heat waves then were for 5 days not 3 as now.”

It can be a single day now apparently.

Right-Handed Shark
Reply to  Mike
July 16, 2023 1:18 am

Also, it used to require sustained high temperatures, now it only needs to “reach” a certain temp, so heat spikes count now. Then there’s the shifting goalposts, last year the UK Met office declared 28ºC was the threshold, this year 26ºC. I can’t remember where I saw that, but when I find it I’ll post a link to confirmation.

Reply to  Mike
July 16, 2023 8:50 am

They even occur under the seas now too.

Soon we’ll be told there are heat waves on the sun.

Oh wait . . .

Dave Fair
Reply to  nhasys
July 15, 2023 11:58 pm

The California flood of 1862 turned the Central Valley into a vast lake, with the Legislature having to move from the Capitol, Sacramento, to San Francisco for that legislative session. Eat your heart out, doomsters.

Reply to  nhasys
July 16, 2023 6:04 am

People by the thousands claim that heatwaves are becoming hotter.
So I tested that.
I calculated a heatwave as the average of the 5 hottest consecutive Tmax each year at a location. Doing that for Alice Springs raw Tmax back to 1878 when public records start, we see not a scintilla of evidence for heatwaves getting hotter. Similar outcome for 3-day heatwaves. Similar for 10-day too.
We look at other locations, like where most Aussies live, the coastal capital cities. Broadly, the same outcome. No increase in the warmth of the hottest heatwave each year, calculated this rather basic and inarguable way.
Here is the Alice 5-day graph.
Geoff S
comment image
If you give your machine time to load, here are the graphs for 7 other Australian locations, using both raw and ACORN-SAT BOM adjusted daily Tmax and showing all years on public record as well as the Top 40 hottest, for a total of 144 graphs.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  sherro01
July 16, 2023 10:43 am

Historic data is not kind to climate change alarmism.

Reply to  Tom Abbott
July 16, 2023 4:35 pm

You see that’s where the “modeling” comes in to fix the data 🙂 . Because you know we haven’t been able to measure temperature to hundredths of a degree or so for a couple of centuries now…

Ancient Wrench
July 15, 2023 9:18 pm

Dr. Gallant seems not to know what will happen nor how extreme it will be, but she is certain that Climate Change will be the cause of whatever happens.

Rod Evans
July 15, 2023 11:31 pm

Well looking at temperature global as WUWT does constantly we see the 50,000 to 60,000 temperature monitoring stations around the globe sampled hourly, show we are still at 14.16 deg. C. It went down to 14.15 deg. C for a few days but is now back to the normal 14.16.
That is the global ‘average’ temperature. It will be interesting to watch is change, or not, over the coming El Nino period.

Right-Handed Shark
Reply to  Rod Evans
July 16, 2023 1:24 am

Yep, and it’s high summer here in the good ol’ NH. Yet all we hear is “unprecedented” and “hottest evah”. SH must be having constant negative temps to keep that average down.

Ben Vorlich
July 15, 2023 11:38 pm

“Correction (EW): h/t The Final Nail, he -> she.”

Are you sure about that?

Reply to  Ben Vorlich
July 16, 2023 2:50 pm

Not at all sure what FN is identifying as this week.

Ireneusz Palmowski
July 16, 2023 1:15 am

The negative surface anomalies of the eastern Pacific accurately show the current Pacific atmospheric circulation, which is more in line with La Niña than El Niño.
The Pacific hurricane, in line with this circulation, is moving westward.
comment image
comment image
The SOI has stabilized at 2. Is it a neutral SOI?

July 16, 2023 1:24 am record heat in the USA, record heat at similar latitudes in Europe. In the meantime we’re having high winds, thunderstorms and below average temperatures in the U.K. (we were warned that July was going to be hot!).
South Korea is experiencing floods.
South Korea, the USA and Southern Europe are on very roughly similar latitudes, with very roughly similar differences in longitude. Are these phenomena due to very wavy jet stream.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  JohnC
July 16, 2023 11:01 am

“Are these phenomena due to very wavy jet stream.”

Jet streams shape the weather. At the present time, we can see one jet stream moving from west to east across the upper half of the United States. That’s why we get strong tornadoes and heavy rains in the northern tier of States when the jet stream flows this way.

There is a high-pressure system hovering over California and nearby States (center marked) that is keeping those people hot.

If you know how the jet stream is configured in your particular area, then you should know what kind of weather to expect.

When I first became interested in how and why weather works, when I was young, it never made sense to me, until a local meteorologist, Gary Shore, started showing the jet stream configuration in his nightly broadcasts and explained what we were seeing, and then it finally came into focus for me. If you know what the jet stream is doing, you know what the weather is doing.

Which brings up the question of why do jet streams assume the configurations that they do? It’s not CO2. 🙂,43.00,264/loc=-114.630,38.075

Notice the big high-pressure system over the Atlantic ocean.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Tom Abbott
July 16, 2023 11:07 am

And btw, it is perfectly normal for a high-pressure system to set itself up over the western and south-central U.S. States at this time of year. It’s what we call “summer” around these parts. 🙂

Ireneusz Palmowski
July 16, 2023 1:38 am

Tropical storms in the South China Sea indicate a circulation consistent with La Niña. Downpours reach the Korean Peninsula.
comment image

Ireneusz Palmowski
Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
July 16, 2023 7:43 am

comment image

Ireneusz Palmowski
July 16, 2023 1:49 am

Cold fronts from the north reach the southern US.
comment image

July 16, 2023 3:01 am

Eric Worrall:

Unfortunately, Dr. Gallant is entirely correct when she says that the nature of weather events have changed.

There is an explanation for the cause of the change, but not one that will give anyone any comfort.

The cause of the change is simply that we have been removing SO2 aerosols from our atmosphere due to Net-Zero and global “Clean” air efforts. SO2 aerosols are reflective and cool the Earth’s surface by reflecting away incoming solar radiation.

As a result, because of the less polluted air, the Sun’s radiation strikes the Earth’s surface with greater intensity, causing increased warming. And, in the absence of any volcanic eruptions, the cleaner the air, the hotter it will get.

The forthcoming El Nino is caused BY the increasing temperatures, and does cause any warming by itself–the whole planet is warming

See: “The Definitive Cause of La Nina and El Nino Events”

(I have another article: “Net-Zero Catastrophe Beginning?” which predicts what is happening, but am travelling and do not have its doi. But it can be found on Google Scholar)

This warming trend is also discussed in another recent article “Definitive proof that CO2 does not cause global warming”

(All warming events can be associated with decreased levels of SO2 aerosols in the atmosphere).

July 16, 2023 4:49 am

Every single day some place somewhere on Earth sets, or even smashes, a weather record of some kind. It’s inevitable because the extremes of just about any weather measurable value are large with respect to the mean value from any record keeping data set. Most of the world has had reliable precise instrumentation for only a short period, 150 years or much less, and documentation of measurements is a spotty affair, reliable only in a few spots on the planet, like major cities.

How many weather measuring stations are part of the weather database today? It has to be at least in the high hundreds of thousands. The USA alone has about 20,000 villages, towns, and cities, and the USA has only about 2% of the world population. Each and every one of those villages, towns, and cities have at least one reporting weather station, with many such towns and cities having multiple stations, up to dozens. That implies millions of weather reporting stations world wide.

So what is the probability that dozens or even hundreds of reporting weather stations out of more than a million, most of which have records going back less than 100 years, on any given day will experience a record high or low temperature, wind speed, rainfall, or snowfall? It has to be a 100% probability.

From personal experience, ever since I became a teenager more than 5 decades ago, my location of residence has experienced an all time weather record of some kind at least several times per year. Meaning a probability of experiencing a weather record of greater than 1% per year PER LOCATION. Extrapolate that across the greater than 1 million weather reporting stations across the world, and it is guaranteed that some location will experience a weather record every day.

So the media hyping weather records has become the proverbial self-licking ice cream cone of news reporting.

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  Duane
July 16, 2023 5:09 am

“the USA has only about 2% of the world population”

More like 4%.

Richard Page
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
July 16, 2023 9:49 am

4.25% if we’re nitpicking!

Stuart Nachman
July 16, 2023 5:40 am

Even though not a scientist, I believe I can read a graph. Since its inception in 2005, the USCRN shows no trend in continental temperatures. Correct me if my perception of the results is incorrect.

The Dark Lord
July 16, 2023 5:48 am

The use of the word “could” removes this discussion from “science” and puts it firmly into uneducated guess territory

Ireneusz Palmowski
July 16, 2023 6:07 am

The year 1921 was exceptional in terms of the height of temperatures in Poland. Those in July 1921 reached 40 degrees C. Of the five highest temperatures recorded in Poland’s history, as many as three came in 1921.
These records should be referred to the period when temperature measurements were conducted in Poland. Climate historians speculate that during the drought of 1540, the temperature may have been about 5-7 degrees C higher than in the 20th century. So it is quite possible that at that time temperatures in the Crown of the Kingdom of Poland were even higher than in 1921.

July 16, 2023 8:08 am

0.01C warmer is smashing the previous record?

July 16, 2023 9:47 am

It would be interesting to compile all the running temperature data from the weather underground system and compare it to the “approved ” temperature stations. The weather underground has real-time data from 200,000 plus private weather stations. They gather data every 15 minutes and forecast based on a 4km grid size.

Tom Abbott
July 16, 2023 11:19 am

From the article: “We’re entering territory where climate change is starting to become a much more dominant signal than it has been in the past,”

Only in the News Media. We are entering new weather-hype territory.

I was watching Fox News Channel an hour or so ago and they were reporting on the “unprecedented” weather, and along comes Robert Ray, of Foxs News Weather, and he says “heat kills the most people every year as far as weather-related events are concerned.”

Well, as skeptics know, that is completely untrue. The actual data says Cold kills many more people than does the Heat.

But here we have a supposedly authoritative meteorologist at the new Fox Weather service spouting climate change alarmist propaganda. Is it any wonder that so many people are confused? They are listening to confused people.

So much climate misinformation, from so many directions, and so little time.

Bob Rogers
July 16, 2023 11:58 am

At dinner last night with my wife and our neighbors, the three of them commented on what a hot year it had been. I pointed out that while we have our normal hot summer weather now, it was unusually cool through June; it didn’t get above about 80F until June 29th; a few years ago it was over 100F in early June.

They seemed momentarily puzzled, but then agreed that it had, in fact, been unusually cool until just recently. I guess that’s the power of mass media for you.

July 16, 2023 1:08 pm

Do the climate crisis scientists now claim to be able to distinguish a human signal from natural variability?

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Van
July 17, 2023 4:01 am

Yes, some alarmist scientists do claim they can see a human signal, but there is no evidence connecting CO2 and the Earth’s weather. The “human signal” is pure speculation on their part.

If they had evidence of a human signal, you can bet we would all know about it.

July 16, 2023 4:26 pm

This dude can’t be right, the polar ice cap melted in 2015

July 16, 2023 4:28 pm

Tonga Volcano?

Ireneusz Palmowski
July 17, 2023 12:11 am

The typhoon hit will be in Macao. A clear eye can be seen, indicating the great strength of the wind.
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