The Week That Was: 2023-06-10 (June 10, 2023)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “The opinions that are held with passion are always those for which no good ground exists; indeed the passion is the measure of the holders lack of rational conviction. Opinions in politics and religion are almost always held passionately.” — Bertrand Russell [H/t Art Horn, Via ICECAP]
Number of the Week: 0.6%
Scope: The issues discussed below include the following. The “distinct human fingerprint” that suddenly appeared in the Second Assessment report of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, AR2 (SAS), 1995) after it had been peer reviewed has reappeared. Initially the fingerprint was claimed to be a warming over the tropics centered about 50,000 feet (15 km) in altitude. Now, the same fingerprint finder claims it is in the stratosphere, from 31 miles (50 km) down to 4 to 12 miles (6 to 20 km). Former NASA atmospheric scientist Roy Spencer demonstrates the new fingerprint is insignificant.
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
A 2012 study by OECD cautioned member countries of the external costs of using wind and solar power, especially involving energy security. Most of the EU and North American countries ignored the warning.
Alarmists claim that a sudden sea level rise is occurring from ice in Antarctica melting rapidly. Increasingly, evidence is accumulating that the major parts of the continent of Antarctica are experiencing an increase in ice, not a reduction.
Repeated claims that the Arctic Sea Ice is diminishing are refuted.
Steve Milloy reports the results of years of repeated requests for documents on the Linear No Threshold Model.
In the Wall Street Journal, Andy Kessler asks “What If Climate is Self-Regulating?” His interpretation is valuable.
Washington continues its campaign against mineral extraction industries. A few examples are reviewed.
Forest fires in Canada are being claimed to be the result of climate change. The ignorance exhibited by such claims is reviewed.
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Changing Fingerprints? In the 2007 paper “A comparison of tropical temperature trends with model predictions” by David Douglass, John Christy, Benjamin Pearson, and S. Fred Singer published by the Royal Meteorological Society, the authors examined the:
“tropospheric temperature trends of 67 runs from 22 ‘Climate of the 20th Century’ model simulations and try to reconcile them with the best available updated observations (in the tropics during the satellite era). Model results and observed temperature trends are in disagreement in most of the tropical troposphere, being separated by more than twice the uncertainty of the model mean. In layers near 5 km, the modelled trend is 100 to 300% higher than observed, and above 8 km, modelled and observed trends have opposite signs.”
Christy and others have produced several additional papers demonstrating that the “distinct human fingerprint” is not found. Now, Santer and others claim they have found it in the Stratosphere, well above its previous location, “Exceptional stratospheric contribution to human fingerprints on atmospheric temperature.” However, it is not warming but cooling! Spencer writes:
“The [Santer et al.] paper starts out summarizing the supposed importance of their work, which is worth quoting in its entirety (bold emphasis added):
“’Differences between tropospheric and lower stratospheric temperature trends have long been recognized as a ‘fingerprint’ of human effects on climate. This fingerprint, however, neglected information from the mid to upper stratosphere, 25 to 50 km above the Earth’s surface. Including this information improves the detectability of a human fingerprint by a factor of five. Enhanced detectability occurs because the mid to upper stratosphere has a large cooling signal from human-caused CO2 increases, small noise levels of natural internal variability, and differing signal and noise patterns. Extending fingerprinting to the upper stratosphere with long temperature records and improved climate models means that it is now virtually impossible for natural causes to explain satellite-measured trends in the thermal structure of the Earth’s atmosphere.’
“The authors are taking advantage of the public’s lack of knowledge concerning the temperature effect of increasing CO2 in the atmosphere, making it sound like stratospheric cooling is part of the fingerprint of global warming.”
Spencer points out that there is nothing new about this assertion. In 1993 he and John Christy published “Precision Lower Stratospheric Temperature Monitoring with the MSU: Technique, Validation, and Results 1979–1991” in the Journal of Climate. Further, [Boldface in original].
“Dr. Richard Lindzen tells me he had references to stratospheric cooling in his 1964 PhD dissertation. So why haven’t we heard about this before in the news? Because it has virtually nothing to do with the subject of global warming and associated climate change.
“So, why mention stratospheric cooling in the context of climate change?
“Climate researchers have been searching for ‘human fingerprints’ of climate change for decades, something measurable that cannot be reasonably explained by natural variations in the climate system.
“I will agree with the authors that stratospheric cooling (especially in the mid- to upper stratosphere) is probably the best evidence we have of a human fingerprint on global temperatures, at least up where there is very little air, where no one lives, and where there are no observable resulting impacts on weather down here where life exists. Water vapor remains an uncertainty here, because more water vapor would also cause cooling, and our understanding of natural variations in stratospheric water vapor is quite poor. But for the sake of argument, I will give the authors the benefit of the doubt and agree that most of the observed cooling is probably due to increasing CO2, which in turn is likely mostly due to burning of fossil fuels.
“Infrared radiative cooling by water vapor and carbon dioxide has long been known to be the primary way the stratosphere (and even higher altitudes) loses heat energy (gained from sunlight absorption by ozone) to outer space. This cooling mechanism is part of the so-called greenhouse effect: greenhouse gases warm the lower altitudes of planetary atmospheres and cool the higher altitudes. In fact, without the greenhouse effect, weather as we know it would not exist. The greenhouse effect is energetically analogous to adding insulation to a heated house in winter: for a given rate of energy input, the inside of the house becomes warmer, and the outside of the house becomes colder.
“The stratospheric cooling effects of CO2 and water vapor was first described theoretically by Manabe and Strickler (1964). Adding more CO2 to the atmosphere enhances upper atmospheric cooling, lowering temperatures. The temperature effect up there is large, several degrees C, meaning it is easier to measure with current satellite methods, as the authors of the new study correctly point out.
“But what then happens in the troposphere (where we live) in response to more CO2 is vastly more complex. Theoretically, adding more CO2 should warm the lower troposphere radiatively. This warming then gets mixed throughout the depth of the troposphere from convective overturning (basically, “weather”).
“But just how much tropospheric warming will be caused by increasing CO2?
“After 30 years and billions of dollars expended on the effort in research centers around the world, the latest crop of climate models (CMIP6) now disagree on the expected amount of tropospheric warming more than ever before. This is mostly because of the insufficiently understood effects of water, especially the response of clouds (the climate system’s sunshade) and precipitation processes (which limit the most abundant greenhouse gas, water vapor) to warming. [Boldface added]
“I consider it irresponsible to conflate stratospheric cooling with the global warming issue. Yes, strong cooling in the upper stratosphere is likely a fingerprint of increasing atmospheric CO2 (putatively due to fossil fuel burning), but for a variety of reasons, that is not reason to believe climate models in their predictions of tropospheric (and thus surface) warming trends. That is a very different matter, and the models themselves demonstrate they are not yet up to the task, now disagreeing with each other by a factor of three or more.
“So now you hopefully understand why entitling such a paper ‘Exceptional stratospheric contribution to human fingerprints on atmospheric temperature’ is essentially a non sequitur on the issue of global warming. [Boldface added]
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.1651
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Externalities: In discussing the wider system costs of adding renewable energy, such as unreliable wind and solar, to the grid; Paul Homewood discussed a study by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) which was formed in 1961 for countries committed to democracy and the market economy. It has 38 members countries consisting of the European Union and the US and Canada plus Japan, Finland, Australia, and New Zealand.
The study is “Nuclear Energy and Renewables: System Effects in Low-carbon Electricity Systems.” What is of particular interest to TWTW is section 1.4 (pp 34 to 39) “The question of pecuniary externalities” (external costs). The section begins:
“System effects in the electricity sector are impacts on the profitability of a company or the well-being of an individual above plant-level costs to supply electricity at a given load and given level of security of supply. Formally, such system effects are externalities, whose textbook definition is ‘an effect that is not accounted for by the one who causes it.’ The essence of an externality is the lack of reciprocity between those who are affected by them to those who cause them. Usually markets establish such feedback mechanisms (‘I give to you, you pay me; I receive from you, I pay you.’), but in the case of externalities in general and system costs in particular such markets do not exist and system costs are hence over-produced. There exists currently no instrument to internalize system costs into the individual cost functions of those who cause them, which means that system costs are currently being absorbed by the investors in dispatchable capacity as well as network operators, the latter being able to pass on the added costs to electricity consumers.”
The chapter goes on to discuss transaction costs, environmental externalities, technical externalities, positive externalities such as clustering of technical people working on a specific problem, etc. It then states:
“Pecuniary externalities are different. While they can impose highly unwelcome impacts on certain parties, they do not, or at least not immediately provide a rationale for public intervention. They are thus of a different nature than technical externalities which are usually implied when the term externality is used. This is due to the fact that pecuniary externalities operate through the price mechanism, which at least in principle implies reciprocity. For instance, the entry of a new, lower-cost power producer into the market will reduce electricity prices and profits for incumbent producers. Pecuniary externalities thus have very real effects on the well-being of other parties. Nevertheless, they are in principle not considered a suboptimal configuration of affairs or requiring government intervention.” [Boldface italics in original]
The report then brings up the view that lower cost technology is a benefit but continues with:
“Yet, there are two counter arguments to this view. First, as long as the technology that is less expensive in the short run is subsidized, natural movements toward market equilibrium are suspended. Without subsidization, renewable technologies with their high fixed costs would be the first victims of lower electricity prices due to their own low, short-term costs and investors would quickly hesitate to invest in them.
“Second, if the declining profitability of dispatchable technologies in primary electricity markets will not be compensated by complementary revenue streams such as capacity payments, their shares will quickly decline. This, however, will lead to increased price volatility with large price spikes in order to finance the remaining generators. Given the resulting impacts on system stability, investment conditions and consumer preferences, the resulting system costs may well be higher than a system where dispatchable producers were unaffected from the price of variable renewables. Hence, total system costs are higher and alternative arrangements induced by public intervention – which may just be confined to discontinuing subsidy payments – would increase total welfare.”
The chapter goes into some detail using the first six months of 2010 pricing in Germany which shows strong negative pricing of wind power. The report states:
“It does not require elaborate economic theory to show that negative prices constitute a commercially very awkward reality. This holds in particular for baseload producers such as nuclear which rely on high load factors and predictable prices in order to recoup their high fixed costs.”
The chapter also discusses the distortions being incurred in Ontario and what may occur in Southern California with increased wind and solar power. Homewood uses the study as a basis of analysis for offshore wind power in the UK and states:
“These costs certainly give the lie to the claim that offshore wind power is cheap!”
In the US, with California’s heavy use of solar power, its residents have the highest electricity prices in the western US, and it relies on hydro, natural gas, and imports from other states for two-thirds of its electricity when the sun goes down. According to RBN Energy, Hawaii, which closed its coal-fired power plant in favor of renewables, now finds that renewables account for only 15% of utility-scale power generation with imported oil generating the rest.
“And then there’s the bottom-line number that resonates with residential consumers, businesses and politicians alike: the highest electricity prices among the 50 states.”
New England, which has abandoned all but two nuclear power plants and can’t get additional natural gas by pipelines which are blocked by New York, is experiencing surging electricity prices. And the deliberately mis-named “Inflation Reduction Act” contained hundreds of billions in subsidies for high cost, unreliable wind and solar power? Politicians are jeopardizing energy security in the name of protecting the Earth from a warming of the lower atmosphere (low- and mid-troposphere) of 0.14 degrees C (0.25 degrees F) every ten years?
See links under Measurement Issues – Atmosphere, Nuclear Energy and Fears, Energy Issues – US and http://www.caiso.com/todaysoutlook/pages/supply.aspx#section-current.
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Migration Season: It’s spring in the Northern Hemisphere and fall in the Southern Hemisphere. Many climate scientists are migrating north to avoid the freezing in the Southern Hemisphere and observe melting of ice in the Northern Hemisphere. Yet, we are seeing that ice in both polar regions is not melting as forecast. Kenneth Richards presents a study of the Antarctic ice shelf area from 2009 to 2019. The abstract states:
“Here, we use MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite data to measure the change in ice shelf calving front position and area on 34 ice shelves in Antarctica from 2009 to 2019. Over the last decade, a reduction in the area on the Antarctic Peninsula (6693 km2) and West Antarctica (5563 km2) has been outweighed by area growth in East Antarctica (3532 km2) and the large Ross and Ronne–Filchner ice shelves (14 028 km2).”
One should remember that the West Antarctic ice sheets are formed over an active geothermal area, and any melting may be the result of geothermal activity. Further, the Thwaites ice shelf, the so-called “Doomsday Glacier,” is not melting rapidly.
In discussing the non-disappearance of ice in the Arctic, John Robson has an interesting tidbit:
“From the ‘none so blind’ file, Canada’s military history magazine Legion, in a story about how ‘Heavy ice forces new Russian icebreaker on long southerly voyage’, in which Yevpatii Kolovrat went from its St. Petersburg shipyard to Petropavlovsk in Kamchatka [eastern Russia] via the Suez Canal, claims that ‘Latest Arctic challenges illustrate the difficulties in predicting climate change effects’ rather than admitting that far from vanishing, the ice is so thick an icebreaker can’t break it.”
The Russian icebreaker is probably not fragile. Susan Crockford reports that polar bears are doing fine after feasting on seal pups and she has a photo essay showing the results of polar bears interbreeding with brown bears. This is not surprising because polar bears are probably descendants of brown bears. Further, researchers at Aarhus University report that the Arctic was probably ice free during the summer in the early Holocene (10,000 years ago).
In a video, Willie Soon, Roland Connolly, and Michael Connolly debunk the claim so popular a few years ago that winter snow will soon disappear in the Northern Hemisphere. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science, Changing Weather, Changing Climate, Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
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NLT Model: To TWTW one of the more absurd applications of rigorous mathematics to poorly understood concepts is the Linear-No-Threshold model used for decades to create fear of nuclear energy. There is no question that radiation poisoning can be fatal. The question is at what level. If the model applied, people would die from even brief exposure to the sun. Yet use of the model is expanding. For example, the EPA has applied it to so-called “forever chemicals” which are called forever because they don’t react with other chemicals.
After years of determined insistence Steve Milloy has announced:
“JunkScience.com is presenting for the first-time emails uncovered via the Freedom of Information Act that expose the inner workings of a little-known bureaucracy dedicated to keeping in place the so-called ‘linear non-threshold model’ (LNT). The LNT is used by regulatory agencies to set permitted exposure standards for radiation.”
These may go a long way towards getting rid of absurd regulations. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy
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Simple or Complex? Writing in the Wall Street Journal columnist Andy Kessler asks What If Climate is Self-Regulating? He gives the simplistic version of greenhouse gas warming used in popular media. He then uses statements by Steve Koonin and Richard Lindzen to show that the argument is foolishly simplistic. Ron Clutz reproduces the article with emphasis. See link under Questioning the Orthodoxy.
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Forked Tongue: According to Grammarist, “To speak with a forked tongue means to tell lies, to not be truthful, to be deceptive. To speak with a forked tongue may be interpreted as saying one thing but meaning another.” It was first recorded in England in the early 1500s, well before English colonies were founded in the Americas. Based on actions rather than words it appears that the term can apply to many in Washington today. According to an editorial in the Wall Street Journal:
“Americans hoping that President Biden’s agreement to sign permitting reforms as part of the debt-ceiling compromise signaled a policy change are going to be disappointed. His Administration’s hostility to natural-resource development continues apace.
“On Tuesday the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers revoked a Clean Water Act permit granted by the Trump Administration for the NewRange copper and nickel mine in Minnesota’s Duluth Complex. The area isn’t virgin land. The Duluth site is part of the fabled Iron Range, which provided 70% of the iron ore that America used during World War II.
“‘Minnesota’s Iron Range has played a vital role in helping build America,’ candidate Biden proclaimed in September 2020. ‘U.S. manufacturing and mining was the Arsenal of Democracy in World War II. It must be part of the Arsenal of American Prosperity today, helping power an economic recovery for working families.’ Apparently not.
“His Administration picked the anniversary of D-Day to deep-six the NewRange mine, which would provide minerals to power electric vehicles and his green-energy transition. The U.S. will have to import the minerals from arsenals of autocracy like Russia and China.
“In other acts of economic masochism, the Interior Department last month delayed a decision on “whether to let Alaska build a 211-mile road to a critical minerals mining area. The project was initially approved by Trump regulators, but Biden officials agreed to conduct a second review after green groups sued. The Administration also recently put on ice a copper mine in Arizona.
“And last Friday Interior removed from oil and gas development hundreds of thousands of acres of public land in New Mexico within 10 miles of the Chaco Culture National Historical Park. The Administration sided with green lobbyists over the Navajo Nation, which opposed the land withdrawal and stood to reap tens of millions of dollars in oil and gas royalties.”
The banning of oil and gas development within 10 miles of Chaco Culture National Historical Park was announced with the statement by the Secretary of Interior Deb Haaland:
“’Today marks an important step in fulfilling President Biden’s commitments to Indian Country by protecting Chaco Canyon, a sacred place that holds deep meaning for the Indigenous peoples whose ancestors have called this place home since time immemorial,’ Haaland said in a statement.”
This area of northern New Mexico was abandoned by the Pueblos about 1150 AD, over 800 years ago. When Europeans first arrived, the area was dominated by the Navajo and the Apache. The area was explored by archeologists in the late 1800s. According to a report in The Federalist, Haaland’s daughter:
“Somah, lobbied for the decision on behalf of the Pueblo Action Alliance (PAA), an Albuquerque-based climate group demanding protections for Chaco Canyon that extend beyond the 10-mile barrier announced Friday.”
Further,
“Local Indian tribes, however, welcomed more oil and gas exploration in the area as a primary source of economic development. In May, the Navajo Nation voted to reject the administration’s plans to withdraw 351,000 acres from consideration for oil and gas leases. The Interior Department’s decision is estimated to cost the tribe more than $194 million over the next two decades, according to the Western Energy Alliance, an industry group for independent oil and gas producers.”
“Sacred Lands” may be just a term of art in Washington to mislead; just like claiming to promote electric vehicles to replace gas ones while withdrawing permits to develop copper and nickel mining (two minerals needed for alternative electricity generation and electric vehicles). See links under Washington’s Control of Energy and Article # 1.
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Displaying Ignorance: News organizations claiming that the recent smoke that engulfed Northeastern US was unprecedented and caused by climate change displayed their ignorance of US history. Tony Heller has several examples of past smoky times including during the American Revolution, long before climate change became an issue.
Rep Tom McClintock summed the issue well in a previous Wall Street Journal article under:
‘How clever of the climate to decimate only the lands hamstrung by these environmental laws.’
“Pundits and politicians have taken to calling the rising incidence of catastrophic wildfire ‘the new normal.’ But California’s experience in the 21st century is neither new nor abnormal. It is, in fact, the old normal. The devastation unfolding today is how nature manages forests. Like an untended garden, an abandoned forest will grow until it chokes itself to death. Nature deals with morbid overcrowding through drought, disease, pestilence, and ultimately catastrophic wildfire.
“Excess timber comes out of a forest in two ways—it gets carried out or burned out. For much of the 20th century, harvesting excess timber produced thriving forests by matching tree density to the ability of the land to support it. Foresters designated surplus trees, and loggers bid for the right to remove them at auction, with the proceeds going to the U.S. Treasury.”
See links under Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda and Article # 2
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SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD – THE JACKSON
SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving. Senators Schumer and Manchin won in 2022.
The voting will close on June 30. Please send your nominee and a brief reason why the person is qualified for the honor to Ken@SEPP.org. The awardee will be announced at the annual meeting of the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness on July 7 to 9.
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Number of the Week: 0.6%. An article claiming that marine fish are responding to ocean warming by going towards the Polar Regions cited a study in Global Change Biology. The abstract states:
“In this study we analyzed published studies meeting criteria of reporting range shift responses to global warming in 115 taxa spanning all major oceanic regions, totaling 595 three-dimensional population responses (latitudinal, longitudinal, and depth), with temperature identified as a significant driver.” [Boldface added]
According to Oceana, there are about 20,000 species of fish in the oceans. The study encompassed about 0.6% of them. See links under Changing Seas and https://oceana.org/ocean-fishes/
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Censorship
The Revelations Of Government Censorship Keep Coming In Missouri v. Biden
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, June 4, 2023
“This case is probably the most important civil rights case proceeding in the federal courts today. If you get your news from such sources as the New York Times, Washington Post, or major television networks, you likely have never heard of it. (One site that has been on top of this case is the Hot Air website.)”
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Climate fearmongering reaches stratospheric heights
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, June 5, 2023
Link to paper: Exceptional stratospheric contribution to human fingerprints on atmospheric temperature
By Benjamin D. Santer, et al. PNAS, May 8, 2023
Science is broken
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, June 5, 2023
Link to report: On Broken Science
By William M. Briggs, Net Zero Watch, 2023
Clintel Report: The IPCC’s shiny new hockey stick
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 7, 2023
Pielke Sr. on using the oceans to measure climate warming
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 31, 2023
Link to: Where’s the Heat?
By Roger Pielke Sr., Ocean Heat Content Change, Via The Hones Broker, May 25, 2023
The IPCC’s perversion of science
The IPCC’s Synthesis Report severely distorts science to advance a corrupt political agenda.
By Alex Epstein, His Blog, May 4, 2023
“The IPCC’s heralded Synthesis Report is supposed to accurately synthesize the best information about human beings’ climate impacts in order to rationally guide policy.
“Instead, it severely distorts science to advance a corrupt political agenda.”
Emails Reveal: Bureaucrats censor radiation risk science fraud by cancelling whistleblowers; Huge implications for nuclear power and more
By Steve Milloy, Junk Science.com, June 2, 2023
Junk Science Week — Ross McKitrick: The Social Cost of Carbon game
Estimates of the SCC championed by Guilbeault are not science
By Ross McKitrick, Financial Post, May 25, 2023
“Thus, I reiterate that SCC estimates are if-then statements. They are not intrinsically true or false: what matters is the credibility of the assumptions. If emissions follow the RCP8.5 scenario (which they won’t), and if people don’t adapt to climate change (which they will), and if CO2 and warm weather stop being good for plants (which is unlikely), then the SCC could be five times larger than previously thought. More likely it isn’t, and very well could be much smaller.”
Defending the Orthodoxy
Greenhouse gas emissions at ‘all-time high’ causing unprecedented rate of global warming, warn scientists
Press Release by University of Leeds, June 8, 2023 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to paper: Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022: annual update of large-scale indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence
By Piers M. Forster, et al (over 25), Earth System Science Data, June 8, 2023
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Arctic Ice: A History of Failed Predictions
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, June 8, 2023
Link to paper: Observationally constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario
By Yeon-Hee Kim, et al. Nature Communications, June 6, 2023
Aviation turbulence strengthened as the world warmed, research shows
Press Release by University of Reading, June 8, 2023 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to paper: Evidence for Large Increases in Clear-Air Turbulence Over the Past Four Decades
By Mark C. Prosser, et al, Geophysical Research Letters, June 8, 2023
[SEPP Comment: According to the graph, turbulence is down to virtually zero in Siberia and eastern Antarctica.]
How climate change threatens South Dakota’s protected landscapes
By Makenzie Huber, South Dakota Searchlight, May 31, 2023
[SEPP Comment: South Dakota never experienced fires, floods, or droughts before? Ignorance of history is no excuse, especially by the National Park Service.]
What If Climate is Self-Regulating?
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, June 7, 2023
Climate-Fact-Check: April-2023-Edition
By Steve Milloy, Junk Science.com, Accessed June 2, 2023 [H/t William Readdy]
Following the science round and round
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 7, 2023
“Whereupon they launch into their mental gymnastics to avoid questions like whether the much smaller amounts of man-made CO2 released between, say, 1910 and 1940 could really have produced warming as fast as that from 1980 to 2000, while the intermediate amounts between 1940 and 1980 could have produced none at all.
“In its own way it’s impressive. Both the mental gymnastics and the sublime assurance. But it all comes down to whether the Earth keeps heating as atmospheric CO2 rises. If it doesn’t, the theory is wrong, and all your cleverness is sophistry.”
The Global Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Watch is an Interesting Initiative but Let’s Not Repeat History
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, May 30, 2023
Western senators: America ‘waking up’ to wildfire problem as smoke blankets East Coast
By Julia Shapero, The Hill, June 8, 2023
Art of Weather – ‘A Weather Rant’
By Meteorologist Art Horn, ICECAP, June 7, 2023
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/art_of_weather_a_weather_rant/
Energy and Environmental Review: June 5, 2023
By John Droz, Jr., Master Resource, June 5, 2023
Change in US Administrations
America Signs Global Climate Agreement to Crack Down on Farming
By Frank Bergman, Slay, June 4, 2023
“The ministerial brought together high-ranking government members to share global perspectives on methane reduction and low-emission food systems.”
“Conference participants included the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the Climate & Clean Air Coalition, the Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture, the World Bank, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, and the Inter-American Development Bank.”
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
How Carbon Dioxide Emissions Change the Climate
Roger Pielke Sr. joins The Honest Broker (SERIES: Pielke Sr., Part 1)
By Roger Pielke Jr. The Honest Broker, Dec 7, 2022
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Gridlock
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 31, 2023
“That chaos and uncertainty are normal was apparently covered on one of the days he missed history class.”
Seeking a Common Ground
Publication day!
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. June 6, 2023
“My new book Climate Uncertainty and Risk is now published!”
“On amazon.com, you can read the Author’s Foreword plus Chapters 1 and 2. Here are the contents for these two chapters:”
Prof. Roger Pielke Jr. “The Inconvenient Truth about Climate Science”
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, June 5, 2023
Video
The Globe Continues To Warm: What’s Next?
By Fred Lipfert, ACSH, May 26, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Do not agree with calling greenhouse gases “heat trapping.”]
Media Bombshell: Shocking Outbreak of ‘Climate Disinformation’ in the Media, i.e., Journalists Asking Questions About Net Zero on GB News and Talk TV
By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, May 30, 2023 [H/t WUWT]
[SEPP Comment: Greens complaining about GB News, a British free-to-air opinion-orientated television and radio channel.]
Dealing with the Upcoming Climate Failure Blame Game
By Christopher Chantrill, American Thinker, May 30, 2023
“The point is, Frost realizes, that the COVID pandemic showed us how government and public opinion work. Once the government launches a narrative and gets everyone on board, it can’t reverse course, can’t admit mistakes. The narrative continues until the world blows up, and the marginal supporters desert the colors.”
Science, Policy, and Evidence
Smoke In The Big Apple: Be Very Afraid? No, Just Careful.
By Fred Lipferd, ACSH, June 8, 2023
German Government Prepares To End Meat Consumption – Rations Of Just 10 Grams Daily!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, June 7, 2023
Models v. Observations
Climate Computer Games
By Michael Kile, WUWT, May 28, 2023
Measurement Issues — Surface
Bureau Capitulates: But Overseas Model Unlikely to Solve All Temperature Measurement Issues
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, May 26, 2023
Porthmadog Weather Station
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 4, 2023
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
UAH Global Temperature Update for May, 2023,: +0.37 deg. C
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, June 2, 2023
“The linear warming trend since January 1979 remains at +0.13 C/decade (+0.11 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).”
Jim Steele Corrects NPR: Setting the Record Straight on Climate Narratives
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, May 29, 2023
“Steele also brings up the concept of the winter jet stream and its role in producing strong winter Chinooks or fohn winds in eastern Montana.”
The Great Snow Cover Debate: Are we seeing more snow or less?
By Staff, CERES, Accessed June 1, 2023 [H/t WUWT]
Video of Willie Soon, Roland Connolly, and Michael Connolly.
Predicting the Indian SW Monsoon
By meteorologist M.M. Ali, Via Kip Hansen, WUWT, June 7, 2023
Cold Grips Globally: Alaska’s 4th Cold Winter… Record Cold Down Under…UK’s Delayed Spring
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, May 28, 2023
Excerpts from EIKE report.
Europe’s Climate Suffers From Lack Of Clouds And Rain…Not From A CO2 Increase
By Fred Mueller, Via No Tricks Zone, June 9, 2023
Rapid Snowmelt has Filled Local Reservoirs [Northwest US]
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, May 27, 2023
That’s a big climate surprise: Frost season growing longer across Australia (and for years!)
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, May 30, 2023
Britain’s Weather A Hundred Years Ago
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 29, 2023
“There was nothing unusual about 1923; most years will show similar swings from one extreme to the other from month to month, and week to week.”
World Record Rainfall
By Tony Heller, His Blog, June 1, 2023
Video [SEPP Comment: Extreme weather in 1934.]
Aarhus University Researchers Find Arctic Warmer, Ice-Free In Summertime 10,000 Years Ago!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, May 26, 2023
Link to paper: Seasonal sea-ice in the Arctic’s last ice area during the Early Holocene
By Henrieka Detlef, et al. Communications Earth & Environment, Mar 20, 2023
Surprise: Hurricane Activity Reconstructions Show Greater Storm Frequency When Globe Was Cold
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, June 4, 2023
The story of polar bear evolution could not be told without discussing climate change
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, May 30, 2023
“Whenever the species first arose, its survival through the very warm early Eemian interglacial, an extended period of about ten thousand years (at ca. 130-120k years ago), when there was consistently much less summer and winter sea ice than today, ensured the polar bear was forever flexible enough to deal with profound variations in sea ice.
“Or did lack of sea ice cause it to go extinct and arise a second time?”
Flawed Alarmism: Coastal Cliff Erosion in California and the Inaccuracies of Climate Change Projections
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, June 2, 2023
“…coastal cliffs are particularly vulnerable due to the combined effects of weathering, wave action, and tidal forces.”
[SEPP Comment: Adds the issue of cliff face erosion to the false sea level rise claims.]
Marine fish are responding to ocean warming by relocating towards the poles
Press Release by University of Glasgow, May 30, 2023
Link to paper: Temperature change effects on marine fish range shifts: A meta-analysis of ecological and methodological predictors
By Carolin Dahms and Shaun S. Killen, Global Change Biology, May 30, 2023
New Study: Sea Levels 3-4 Meters Higher Than Today When CO2 Was At ‘Safe’ Levels
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, June 8, 2023
Link to chapter in book: Mangrove Swamps of Brazil: Current Status and Impact of Sea-Level Changes
By Pedro Walfir M. Souza-Filho, et al. Tropical Marine Environments of Brazil, March 2023
NOAA announces $2.6 billion to protect coastal communities
By Patrick Hilsman, Washington DC (UPI), Jun 6, 2023
“The initiative will use funds from the Inflation Reduction Act, as part of the Biden administration’s Investing in America agenda.”
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
New Study Destroys ‘Doomsday Glacier’ Narrative…Today’s Ice 8 Times 𝑇ℎ𝑖𝑐𝑘𝑒𝑟 Than Last 8000 Years
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, May 29, 2023
Link to paper: Reversible ice sheet thinning in the Amundsen Sea Embayment during the Late Holocene
By Greg Balco, et al. The Cryosphere, Apr 28, 2023
Four decades of glacier stability in East Antarctica
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 7, 2023
From the CO2Science Archive
Scientists Caught Inflating Antarctic Ice Losses 3000% More Than Observations
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, June 5, 2023
Link to paper: Change in Antarctic ice shelf area from 2009 to 2019
By Julia R. Andreasen, et al. The Cryosphere, May 16, 2023
Thwaites ‘Doomsday’ Glacier Narrative Collapses…Total Melt Raises Sea Levels 1-2 mm, Not 3048 mm
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, June 1, 2023
Link to paper: Limited Impact of Thwaites Ice Shelf on Future Ice Loss From Antarctica
By G. H. Gudmundsson, et al. Geophysical Research Letters, May 31, 2023
The Doomsday Glacier that wasn’t
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 7, 2023
Polar bear sea ice habitat near the end of Arctic spring 2023
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, June 6, 2023
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 31, 2023
Arctic Sea Ice To Disappear Again
By Tony Heller, His Blog, June 8, 2023
Video
Hidden ice melt in Himalayan glaciers
Findings have implications for projections of glacier disappearance and availability of water resources
Press Release, NSF, June 8, 2023
link to paper: Underestimated mass loss from lake-terminating glaciers in the greater Himalaya
By Guoqing Zhang, et al, Nature Geoscience, Apr 3, 2023
Grizzlies vs. grizzly X polar bear hybrids by appearance alone: a photo essay
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, June 2, 2023
Changing Earth
How land use changes the climate
Roger Pielke Sr. explains (SERIES: Pielke Sr., Part 2)
By Roger Pielke Jr. The Honest Broker, Feb 28, 2023
Acidic Waters
The productivity response of six macroalgal species to ocean acidification and warming
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 31, 2023
From the CO2Science archive:
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Social Injustice: Climate Activists vs. Nitrogen Fertilizers
By Steve Overholt, Master Resource, June 6, 2023
Link to study: Nitrous Oxide and Climate
By C. A. de Lange. J. D. Ferguson, W. Happer, and W. A. van Wijngaarden, Nov 10, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Good to see the study cited.]
Killing Cows To Save The Climate
By Tony Heller, His Blog, May 31, 2023
Link to: Lettuce Produces More Greenhouse Gas Emissions than Bacon Does
A vegetarian diet does not necessarily have a low impact on the environment
By Brittany Patterson, Scientific American, Dec 15, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Who needs cows in Ireland when lettuce will kill us anyway?]
If We Imagine Really Bad Stuff, It Might Affect Crop Yields.
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, June 3, 2023
Link to paper: Potential for surprising heat and drought events in wheat-producing regions of USA and China
By Erin Coughlan de Perez, et al, Nature, Climate and Atmospheric Science, June 2, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Uses falsified models to discuss wheat production without recognizing that increasing CO2 is increasing yields.]
Lowering Standards
So about that there transition
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 7, 2023
Link to: Annual Energy Outlook 2023
By Staff, US Energy Information Administration (EIA) March 2023
From EIA Executive Summary: “We project that U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions drop 25% to 38% below the 2005 level by 2030. For reference, the United States’ nationally determined contribution (NDC), submitted as part of the Paris Agreement, calls for a target of 50% to 52% of net greenhouse gas emissions below the 2005 level by 2030.1 We only consider energy-related CO2 emissions, which does not cover the full NDC scope.”
From Robson: “In the United States, for instance, the government has managed to spend vast sums and trigger a worldwide subsidy and tariff war. But as for actual results, a recent Energy Information Administration study ‘Annual Energy Outlook 2023’ (called a ‘Narrative’ for some postmodern reason) dressed up with a lot of pretty pictures the message that said basically nothing would change by 2050. There’s a lot of talk of a ‘transition’, and a lot of enthusiasm for it. There’s just no transition.”
Tornado Report For 2022
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 6, 2023
Link to report: Severe Weather Maps, Graphics, and Data Page
By Staff, NOAA Storm Prediction Center, Apr 25, 2023
[SEPP Comment: NOAA ignoring that years ago, many weak tornadoes were unreported.]
NOAA proposes massively cruel offshore sonar survey
By David Wojick, CFACT, June 5, 2023
“All that will matter is what lies between the project site and the landing point. Obviously, the cable route survey should wait until that location is known, thus saving thousands of protected critters from harmful harassment.”
Blast, it’s summer
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 7, 2023
“’A good case in point is the article in the May 2023 issue of EOS with the title ‘The Mental Toll of Climate Change.’ A notice at the head of the article reads, ‘Content Warning: This article discusses suicide and potential risk factors of suicide.’ The author, Katherine Kornei, a science writer, interviewed mental-health providers and an ‘environmental psychologist’ to explore the stresses brought on by both acute weather events (such as floods, tornadoes, and wildfires) and chronic issues (such as droughts and heat waves). And all these things are directly linked by the author to climate change.’”
BBC upheld just 25 complaints of bias in five years
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 6, 2023
More Proof The Lancet Has Fallen – Publishes New Paper: Envisioning environmental equity: climate change, health, and racial justice
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, May 31, 2023
“This Health Policy has three aims. The first is to show the unequal health impacts of climate change due to racism, xenophobia, and discrimination, achieved through a scoping review of the literature.”
[SEPP Comment; Warming and cooling, whatever the cause, impacts those living in the tropics and tundra the same?]
Met Office Announce Water Scarcity Alert After Wet Spring!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 2, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
What the media won’t tell you about . . . hurricanes–Roger Pielke Jr
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 2, 2023
Link to paper: 2023 Edition: What the media won’t tell you about . . . hurricanes
The science and data reporters refuse to report
By Rober Pielke Jr., The Honest Broker, June 1, 2023
From Pielke: “5. The largest climate signal — by far — in the damage record of U.S. hurricanes is ENSO.”
Land around the U.S. is sinking. Here are some of the fastest areas.
By Kasha Patel, The Washington Post, May 30, 2023 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to paper: Sea-level rise from land subsidence in major coastal cities
By Cheryl Tay, et al. Nature Sustainability, December 2022
Wrongium, the Media’s Favourite Element
By Salvatore Babone, Quadrant, June 8, 2023
Link to report: India cuts periodic table and evolution from school textbooks — experts are baffled
Nature has learnt that the periodic table, as well as evolution, won’t be taught to under-16s as they start the new school year.
By Dyani Lewis, Nature Mag, May 31, 2023
The Worst Air Quality in New York History?
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, June 7, 2023
[SEPP Comment: A reader comment brought up the Great Fire of 1910 in Idaho and Western Montana extending to Eastern Washington and Southeast British Columbia. The burning of 3,000,000 acres and killing of 87 people prompted the newly formed US Forest Service into emphasizing a policy of extinguishing all fires as soon as possible. The policy was abandoned in the 1970s and 80s.]
No Jeremy Warner, Weather Disasters Are Not Getting Worse
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 5, 2023
Britain’s paralysis will allow China to obliterate our lead in renewable power–Ben Marlow
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 4, 2023
“It is sad to think there used to be a time when the Telegraph’s business journalists knew what they were talking about:”
Thermosphere is Cooling, Bad for Satellites. Thermosphere is Heating, Bad for Satellites.
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, June 5, 2023
No, BBC, Tornadoes Are Not Getting Worse
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June , 2023
Yet Another Coffee Scare
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 30, 2023
“The journalist who wrote this piffle is the Telegraph’s Assistant Food Editor. I suggest that in future he sticks to restaurants and recipes and leaves serious stuff like this to economic experts.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
‘An ungodly, dystopian landscape’: New York’s skies underscore climate stakes
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, June 8, 2023
Media Wrong Again about Quebec wildfires
By Robert Girouard, WUWT, June 7, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Climate paradox: Emission cuts could ‘unmask’ deadly face of climate change, scientists warn
By Saul Elbein, The Hill, June 1, 2023
Link to latest paper: Aerosol demasking enhances climate warming over South Asia
By H. R. C. R. Nair, et al. Nature, Climate and Atmospheric Science, May 20, 2023
“In their 2021 paper, Sato and Hansen described the problem — that the longer we burn fossil fuels, the hotter it becomes when we finally stop — not simply in practical terms but moral ones.”
Earth is ‘really quite sick now’ and in danger zone in nearly all ecological ways, study says
By Seth Borenstein, AP, May 31, 2023
Link to paper: Safe and just Earth system boundaries
By Johan Rockström, et al. Nature, May 31, 2023
No, BANG, The California Coastline Isn’t Going to be “Wiped Out” by Climate Change
By Anthony Watts, Climate Realism, June 2, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
EU: Climate Deniers are Linked to a Russian and Chinese Disinformation Attack
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, June 3, 2023
Criminalization of Climate Science Dissent
By Michelle Sterling, Friends of Science, Accessed June 6, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Gives examples of UN and pro-UN propaganda falsely called science.]
LinkedIn Climate/Energy Debate: An Exchange of Note
By Hans Wolkers, Master Resource, June 8, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Dark Days Indeed
By Tony Heller, His Blog, June 9, 2023
Video: https://realclimatescience.com/2023/06/dark-days-indeed/
Text: https://realclimatescience.com/2023/06/dark-days-in-new-england/
Cutting through the Factual Haze on the Canadian Forest Fires
By Jim Geraghy, National Review, June 8, 2023 [H/t William Readdy]
Red Hot Germany
By Tony Heller, His Blog, June 1, 2023
[SEPP Comment: The color of weather gets red in five years, as temperatures cool?]
Climate Anxiety: Doomsday Cult or Mental Illness?
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, June 8, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
Fairy tales offer accessible ways to communicate energy research in the social sciences to help tackle climate change
Press Release By Lancaster University, May 31, 2023 {H/t Richard Courtney]
Link to paper: ‘Telling tales’: Communicating UK energy research through fairy tale characters
By Carolynne Lord, et al. Energy Research & Social Science, May 23, 2023
From the abstract: “Each [story] takes inspiration from a well-known fairy tale character (i.e., mermaids, vampires, and witches) to translate energy and social science research in the empirical contexts of electricity generation, sustainable travel, and plastic pollution in the UK.
[SEPP Comment: Are they admitting the entire climate change scare is a Grim fairytale?]
Who allowed Dale Vince’s climate curriculum to take over schools?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 5, 2023
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Why ideas of ‘planetary boundaries’ must uphold environmental justice
Earth-system boundaries define a safe operating space for humanity. Accounting for the planet’s most vulnerable people provides a stark warning of the work still to be done.’
Editorial, Nature, May 31, 2023
International negotiators agree to craft treaty to end plastic pollution
By Jared Gans, The Hill, June 3, 2023
Shakedown! Climate Governance Initiative (UK)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, June 7, 2023
“’Our mission is to mobilise boards around the world to accelerate the net zero transition, guided by the World Economic Forum’s Principles for Effective Climate Governance.’”
[SEPP Comment: The World Economic Forum has no concept of the complexity of natural climate change, much less than the complexity of the influence of greenhouse gases on the globe’s temperatures. Yet it claims it can govern these complex changes?]
UN NetZero cartel wants to make Insurance Firms into “Climate Police” but giants are fleeing
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, May 27, 2023
Questioning European Green
Klang
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 31, 2023
“More likely the problem is an abundance of leadership to impose all those flawed policy plans:”
“At any rate, there’s a serious problem and even the politicians are starting to realize that it calls for serious thought not childish antics.”
Green Omertà
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, June 1, 2023
“There is a conspiracy of silence about wind power cost”
Climate Lockdowns Begin for the workers: France bans short flights for passengers but not private jets
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, June 2, 2023
Heat pumps are becoming a plague on all our houses
By Ross Clark, The Telegraph, June 5, 2023
Questioning Green Elsewhere
5 Things I Truly Don’t Understand About the ‘Inevitable Energy Transition’
On the “the holy climate panacea triad” of more wind, solar, and electric cars, I’m so utterly confused.
By Jude Clemente, Real Clear Energy, May 29, 2023
Peak ESG is behind us: Investors throw out climate fantasies at Exxon and Chevron
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, June 3, 2023
Who needs farmers? The Greens create 10,000 km of high voltage industrial pain
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, June 8, 2023
Funding Issues
The Numbers Are In on How Biden-Era Funding Is Skewing Scientific Research Ever-Wokeward
By Steve Miller, Real Clear Investigations, May 16, 2023
“While the science research system worked relatively well for decades, ‘scientists believe they are intellectually independent, and they can be,’ said J. Scott Turner, a biologist and emeritus professor of biology with the State University of New York in Syracuse. ‘Now, when this funding is overseen by certain entities, they want certain results,’ he said.”
Get away from my pension
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 7, 2023
“So, beware. If the government gets hold of your money, it will spend it on its priorities not yours and according to its notions of prudence not yours. In which case you might very well want to have your lawyer on speed dial.”
Rich nations owe developing nations $170 trillion in climate compensation, new study estimates
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 8, 2023
Link to paper: Compensation for atmospheric appropriation
By Fanning, A., and Hickel, J., Nature Sustainability, June 5, 2023
The Political Games Continue
They mean it
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 31, 2023
Labour At War Over Green Spending
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 9, 2023
Litigation Issues
At CHECC, We’re Down But Not Out!
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, May 25, 2023
Bellwether ‘forever chemicals’ trial postponed as parties say they’re close to deal
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, June 5, 2023
Link to questionable report: Perfluoroalkyl and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS)
By Staff, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, Accessed June 6, 2023
From the report: “PFAS molecules have a chain of linked carbon and fluorine atoms. Because the carbon-fluorine bond is one of the strongest, these chemicals do not degrade easily in the environment.”
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Net Zero Watch warns over change to Ofgem role
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, June 8, 2023
“Amendment to Ofgem’s statutory duties ‘leaves consumers defenceless in the face of green rent-seeking’”
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA Shows Again It’s The Worst Regulatory Agency In The History Of The World
By Henry I. Miller, MD, May 30, 2023
“Trump-era EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt officially ended sue and settle during his tenure with an Agency-wide directive in October 2017, but the Biden administration summarily reversed that directive in March 2022.
“The result is that we’re back to regulation through litigation, with EPA willingly capitulating to the plaintiff activist groups.”
Here’s how the debt ceiling bill would change the US energy permitting process
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, June 1, 2023
“The change to the decades-old [NEPA] law would mean that agencies would be required to focus specifically on ‘reasonably foreseeable environmental effects’ in their reviews of projects, rather than more abstract or downstream impacts.” [Boldface added.]
Biden admin is preparing to target Americans’ gas furnaces amid stove crackdown
Between 40%-60% of the current residential furnaces on the market currently would be prohibited under the proposed regulation
By Thomas Catenacci, Fox News, June 7, 2023
“And in December, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm touted that the administration had taken 110 actions on energy efficiency standards in 2022 alone. The energy secretary added that the regulations strengthened U.S. leadership in ‘the race towards a clean energy future.’
“According to the current federal Unified Agenda, a government-wide, semiannual list that highlights regulations agencies plan to propose or finalize within the next 12 months, the Biden administration is moving forward with rules impacting dozens more appliances, including pool pumps, battery chargers, ceiling fans and dehumidifiers.”
Energy Issues – Non-US
You wanted energy with that transition?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 7, 2023
“Note that ‘agreed’ doesn’t mean the affected people actually had a say. Perhaps people are discovering the “energy transition” is all transition and no energy.”
Natural Gas to the Rescue (Vaclav Smil)
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, June 4, 2023
Link to: Natural Gas in the New Energy World
By Vaclav Smil For Naturgy Foundation, January 2021
The South African Energy Crisis: A Battle between Power Needs and Environmentalists
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, May 31, 2023
Mexico and South America Must Tap Fossil Fuels to Fight Poverty
By Vijay Jayaraj, CO2 Coalition, June 8, 2023
Dominic Lawson: Lower tax revenue and higher CO2 emissions: What Starmer’s financially illiterate plan to stop North Sea drilling would really mean for Britain
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 2, 2023
“Here is where the economic illiteracy comes in. Despite the already vast investment in ‘renewable’ energy — which has involved huge subsidies — this country still relies on about two-thirds of our energy from oil and gas. Wind and solar provide less than 10 per cent, mainly because their production is intermittent, relying on the ‘right sort of weather’.”
New Energy Price Cap
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 26, 2023
“All of this means, of course, that offshore wind will remain much more expensive than gas power, which usually sets the market price.”
Green Energy Now Threatens South Korea’s Economy
By Vijay Jayaraj, Real Clear Markets, May 29, 2023
Labour plans to block new North Sea oil fields could cost Scotland £6bn
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 2, 2023
The madness of Labour’s oil and gas ban
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 6, 2023
Energy Issues – Australia
Green Australia: where Industry is on Edge, the grid “precarious” and electricity prices up 25%
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, June 7, 2023
Can’t Help Falling In Love – Hawaii Finds The Move Away From Fossil Fuels Is Easier Said Than Don
By Jason Lindquist, RBN Energy, June 1, 2023
Surging New England Energy Prices: No Surprise
By Steve Goreham, Master Resource, May 30, 2023
New Gas-Fired 1,875-MW Plant Comes Online in Ohio
By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag, June 7, 2023
Link to: Energy Transition in PJM: Resource Retirements, Replacements & Risks
By Staff PJM, Feb 24, 2023
Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative Third Program Review
By Roger Caiazza, WUWT, June 6, 2023
Washington’s Control of Energy
Bureaucrats Completely Incapable Of Making Reasonable Trade-Offs
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, May 29, 2023
The Federal War Against Your Lifestyle
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, June 6, 2023
Link to The War on Things That Work
By Noah Rothman, National Review, May 25, 2023
Biden administration bars oil and gas drilling within 10 miles of Chaco Canyon
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, June 2, 2023
Biden Interior Department Cuts Off Navajo Nation From Oil And Gas Development
By Tristan Justice, The Federalist, June 2, 2023
Oil Spills, Gas Leaks, etc. & Consequences
World’s top copper producer closes smelter in ‘Chile’s Chernobyl’
By AFP Staff Writers, Quintero, Chile (AFP) May 31, 2023
“Codelco announced it would close the Ventanas smelter after an incident in June last year when more than 100 people, mostly schoolchildren, suffered sulfur dioxide poisoning in the area around Quintero and Puchuncavi — two coastal towns that are home to some 50,000 people.”
The Wider System Costs Of Renewable Energy
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 4, 2023
Link to: Nuclear Energy and Renewables: System Effects in Low-carbon Electricity Systems
By Staff, OECD, 2012
Unit 3 at Vogtle Nuclear Plant Reaches 100% Power Output
Georgia Power officials said Unit 3 at Plant Vogtle has reached 100% power output, as the first reactor in a two-unit expansion at the site in Waynesboro, Georgia, nears commercial operation.
By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag, May 30, 2023
“The project has endured several construction and other delays, with its final price tag reportedly topping $35 billion, well above the original estimates of about $14 billion.”
Not Dark Yet… But it’s Getting There
By Lord Frost, The Daily Sceptic, May 26, 2023
“First, we should keep underlining that there is not just a problem, there is a solution. That is gas to nuclear, backed with investment in fundamental research, and taking advantage of technological advances. This doesn’t require massive reinvestment in new energy production of doubtful value.”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Wind Speed “Hot Spots’ In Eastern Washington Produced by Gaps in the Cascades
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, May 31, 2023
“With cool/high pressure to the west of the Cascade crest the last few days, the pressure pattern has been very favorable for consistent westerly winds over the wind turbines of eastern Washington, producing consistently high wind energy availability (see the Bonneville statistics below, wind plus solar shown by the green line).”
[SEPP Comment: According to the chart, on May 25 and 26, wind plus solar was near zero.]
Expert Prof. Gerd Ganteför Calls For More Studies On The Regional Climate Impact By Wind Turbines
By P Gosselin, No tricks Zone, May 31, 2023
“Germany has so far installed over 30,000 wind turbines, which is about 1 every 11 sq. km. Plans are calling for doubling or even tripling the current wind power capacity. But this may be detrimental as new studies show that wind farms are altering local climates, and thus may be having an effect on global climate and contributing to regional droughts. We reported on this here earlier this month.”
High fuel prices, energy security concerns drive surge in renewables: research
By Julia Mueller, The Hill, June 1, 2023
Link to Press Release: Renewable power on course to shatter more records as countries around the world speed up deployment
By Staff, IEA, June 1, 2023
“The growth is set to continue next year with the world’s total renewable electricity capacity rising to 4 500 gigawatts (GW), equal to the total power output of China and the United States combined, says the IEA’s new Renewable Energy Market Update, which was published today.”
[SEPP Comment: What percentage is generated when needed?’]
Hidden Impact of Massive Solar Farms: Residents and Wildlife Affected, Aquifers Threatened
By Travis Gillmore, The Epoch Times, May 31, 2023 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Energy Department unveils plan using hydrogen energy to cut US emissions by 10 percent
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, June 8, 2023
Link to “strategy document:” U.S. National Clean Hydrogen Strategy and Roadmap
By Staff, DOE, 2023
[SEPP Comment: No estimate of cost.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
More Amtrak High-Speed Train Delays
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, June 1, 2023
No one even knows if EV’s will reduce carbon dioxide
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, June 6, 2023
“And it’s clear which part of the EV is the cause of all the emissions. If only EV’s could run without a battery.”
Telegraph’s EV Fan Gets A Shock!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 1, 2023
“It is amazing how often we read about EV drivers moaning about the lack of charging infrastructure. Who do they think is going to pay for it all? Why should the rest of us have to pay for it?”
California Dreaming
New Labor Laws and the Threat to Wildfire Prevention in California
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, May 30, 20223
[SEPP Comment: Making goat herding too expensive?]
Stein: California Governor Newsom’s actions to reduce emissions conflict with the states’ legal framework statutes
By Stephen Frank, California Political Review, June 5, 2023
Health, Energy, and Climate
Dangers Of Poor Peer Review: They Aren’t Just Medical
By Barbara Pfeffer Billauer, ACSH, May 25, 2023
On a cold winter night, on a transition bound for nowhere
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 31, 2023
Other News that May Be of Interest
Bournemouth’s Spate Of “Deliberate” Heath Fires
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 31, 2023
“Another reminder that wildfires are often started by humans, whether deliberately or not.”
Japan aims to halve allergy-triggering cedar pollen in 30 years
By Tomoko Otake, The Japan Times, May 30, 2023
The Nostradamus Times
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 31, 2023
“P.S. As far as can be determined, the one about making predictions is actually an old Danish proverb. But we predict that someone will say otherwise.”
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Met Office To Issue Sunny Day Alerts
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 3, 2023
“There is no evidence that more people are dying in Britain because of hot summers.”
Biden climate czar John Kerry likens D-Day invasion to battling climate change: ‘The fight of our times’
Thousands of American and allied servicemembers died in the June 6, 1944, invasion
By Brandon Gillespie, Fox News, June 7, 2023
Feeding The World By Starving It
By Tony Heller, His Blog, June 1, 2023
Video: John Kerry: “…as a matter of physics and mathematics…”
John Kerry, climate crazies are coming for your burgers and Fourth of July
Watching the Biden White House impose climate policy on America I wonder if we will celebrate national holidays the same way in just a few short years
By Liz Peek, Fox News, May 31, 2023
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 7, 2023
“From the ‘you have no idea’ file, the Canadian Treasury Board claims it’s ‘not possible’ to find out how many Canadian public servants work from home. But if the question is where every molecule of CO2 comes from and what it does, hey, the Prime Minister knows all and sees all.”
England Needs A National Strategy For Sunny Weather!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 3, 2023
Professors: The Entire Fossil Fuel Industry Must Be ‘Euthanized’ To Save Humanity From Warmth
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, May 25, 2023
Link to paper: Time to Put the Fossil-Fuel Industry Into Hospice
By Andrew John Hoffman and Douglas Ely, Stanford Social Innovation Review, Jan 4, 2023
From abstract: “We begin by presenting the prognosis that both society and the fossil-fuel industry face existential challenges that are terminal in nature. With such a prognosis, we then consider three possible forms of treatment: (1) triage, (2) euthanasia and (3) hospice. Finally, we offer 10 key considerations in carrying out such a treatment regimen.”
ARTICLES
1. Killing America’s Critical Minerals
The Biden Administration revokes a permit for the NewRange copper and nickel mine in Minnesota.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, June 8, 2023
Summarized in the This Week section above.
******************
2. Notable & Quotable: What Causes Forest Fires
By Rep Tom McClintock, WSJ, June 8, 2023
Summarized in the This Week section above.
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To be green is to be entirely devoid of any humour or joy in life, to fixate on self-loathing…
“Caroline Lucas has been the single most influential MP of the past decade. Her central idea – that we need to go cold turkey on our ‘addiction to economic growth’ – has been spectacularly successful. ”
https://capx.co/caroline-lucas-may-be-leaving-parliament-but-her-degrowth-politics-has-captured-britain/
So successful that the greens were finally booted out of Brighton council – where Lucas is MP. So influential she resigned before being voted out.
The UK’s delayed spring has given way to a summer of discontented alarmism…
“Not that long ago, scary warnings from state agencies about warm summer days would have looked ridiculous. So why does officialdom today feel the need to issue these alarmist missives, alongside statements of the bleeding obvious masquerading as ‘safety advice’, such as ‘exercise or walk your dog at cooler times of the day’ and ‘wear suitable clothing if going outside’?
Partly it’s because the British state in the past didn’t infantilise its citizens in the way it does today. It didn’t act as if we needed protection from just about everything, including a bit of nice weather.”
https://www.spiked-online.com/2023/06/10/the-summer-doesnt-need-a-health-warning/
So what is the latest response to some nice weather?
“A novel British satellite will go into orbit later on Monday, designed to map the heat signature of buildings. The idea is to highlight those properties that are wasting energy and could benefit from better insulation. The relatively small spacecraft is called, appropriately, HotSat-1; and will be operated by the London-based start-up Satellite Vu. Its infrared sensor has been developed with funds from the UK and European space agencies.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/science-environment-65822462
Big brother is watching and listening more intently than ever. I know my house is in their terms an offender, I also know I don’t have the £100,000 plus that it will need to meet the new ‘standards’
Watch this space…
Boiler manufacturers will be fined thousands of pounds if they fail to install enough heat pumps under new net zero plans. Ministers are planning to force production quotas onto large manufacturers as part of efforts to boost uptake of the devices across Britain.
Companies that fail to meet the quotas will face a fine of £5,000 per device. In an example given in consultation papers, a manufacturer with a shortfall of 100 would be expected to pay £500,000.
Heat pumps are seen as a key replacement for gas-fired boilers, which ministers want to phase out in order to cut carbon emissions. However, Mike Foster, chief executive of trade group Energy and Utilities Alliance, said the quotas were “absurd” and politicians were “out of touch”. Mr Foster said the “Soviet-style” quotas could force companies to import heat pumps to meet the targets.
He added: “If the public want to buy heat pumps, our members will sell them, that’s the basic law of demand and supply.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/30/gas-boiler-manufacturers-5000-fines-heat-pump-targets/
In a recent add by heat pump manufacturer Fischer the company said the following
“The government aims to give out 30,000 vouchers annually but only managed 9,888 between the schemes launch in May and the end of last year. So far annual air source heat pump installation is under 40,000. As it stands, the government’s target to install 600,000 a year by 2028 seems a long way off”
The latest government plans for industry quotas for production and £5000 fines per unit if they do not meet them will only lead to nobody wanting to manufacture the units in the first place especially as the installation backlog grows. STUPIDITY RULES.
It is currently the peak of solar activity in the 25th solar cycle. It can be seen that it is no higher than in cycle 24, which was much weaker than the previous few cycles.
Temperature recovery during MM
It is clear that the decline of ozone at high latitudes causes a multi-year change in the state of the stratospheric polar vortex and its associated circulation.
Ireneusz,
Regarding the third graph you presented in your post indicating the temperature change over the period 1680-1780 (where in the graph’s title “MM” is assumed to refer to the Maunder Minimum period of approx. 1645 to 1715):
How were scientists back then able to measure variations of ozone abundance in the stratosphere, given that the first spectroscopes/spectrometers were not invented, let alone used, until after the 1850’s?
Also, the earliest high-altitude weather balloons date to 1896, and in fact it was these that led to the discovery of the stratosphere (ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_balloon )
Or is it just that the “data” attributed to Shindell, et.al., in this graph is simply the output of a model that is hindcasting what ozone “must have been doing” to account for ground temperatures actually measured during this interval.
If the latter, garbage in = garbage out.
It’s happening. Winter circulation changes will become more pronounced as solar activity declines.
Two of
California’s largest reservoirs are near 100% capacity.
The largest temperature drops will be approaching during the local minima between cycles 25 − 26 and cycles 26–27 when the lowest solar activity level is achieved using the estimations in Figure 2 (bottom plot) and Figure 3. Therefore, the average temperature in the Northern hemisphere can be reduced by up to 1.0°C from the current temperature, which was increased by 1.4°C since Maunder minimum. This will result in the average temperature to become lower than the current one to be only 0.4°C higher than the temperature measured in 1710. Then, after the modern grand solar minimum 1 is over, the solar activity in cycle 28 will be restored to normal in the rather short but powerful grand solar cycle lasting between 2053 and 2370, as shown in Figure 3, before it approaches the next grand solar minimum 2 in 2370.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23328940.2020.1796243
Uhhhh . . . my question to you was asking how the data presented for ozone-dependent surface temperatures was identified as being due to stratospheric ozone concentration for the stated period of 1680-1780.
Thank you stating was is believed to be happening now and what might happen in the near future in this matter, but this does not address my original question.
In winter, stratospheric ozone accumulates around the Arctic Circle. The temperature difference inside and outside the polar vortex determines the strength of the polar vortex. During periods of low solar activity, the distribution of ozone in high latitudes is very uneven in the northern hemisphere. Ozone accumulates in eastern Siberia and is pushed over North America. The graphic above shows a warm area in the North Pacific during the MM period, which means that the lows are pushed over the Bering Sea and Arctic air descends over North America. The decline in ozone production will perpetuate this winter circulation.
Asked twice and not answered.
I give up.
“Whatever we do to the planet, if everything is done only by the sun, then the temperature should drop similar like it was in the Maunder Minimum. At least in the Northern hemisphere, where this temperature is well protocoled and written. We didn’t have many measurements in the Southern hemisphere, we don’t know what will happen with that, but in the Northern hemisphere, we know it’s very well protocoled. The rivers are frozen. There are winters and no summers, and so on.
So we only hope because these Maunder Minima will be shorter, the Maunder Minimum of the 17th century was about 65 years, the Maunder Minimum which we expect will be lasting not longer than 30-35 years.”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/08/09/solar-physicist-sees-global-cooling-ahead/
For more information, click here.
https://solargsm.com/
AbstractWe examine the climate response to solar irradiance changes between the late 17th-century Maunder Minimum and the late 18th century. Global average temperature changes are small (about 0.3° to 0.4°C) in both a climate model and empirical reconstructions. However, regional temperature changes are quite large. In the model, these occur primarily through a forced shift toward the low index state of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation as solar irradiance decreases. This leads to colder temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere continents, especially in winter (1° to 2°C), in agreement with historical records and proxy data for surface temperatures.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1064363
Thanks, that’s what I suspected and all that I needed to know.
Garbage in = garbage out . . . but I repeat myself.
The current satellite data I showed you and the meters of snow in California are not garbage.
Probably a more pertinent question for Shindell et al (2001). Unfortunately, ‘et al’ includes, wait for it, Gavin Schmidt and Michael Mann, so I think your last sentence sums it up rather nicely.
Snow may continue to fall in the mountains of California.
We are not alone: The UFO whistleblower speaks
Yuh, I know, WWUT doesn’t encourage discussions of UFOs and the like- so why is this relevant? Because it’s the best UFO story ever- and, it’s claimed by some that the aliens have advanced energy- because you need it to fly those things- and if we can learn from them, their energy systems may put not only the fossil fuel industry out of busness but also the so called renewable energy industries. And if nothing else, believe me, that video is fascinating. This story still isn’t being covered by the MSM but it will be once they evaluate it and overcome their shock at this story.
Well, there you have it.
It was taken down this morning- shortly after I posted that. There is a shorter version at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSj7QsHRxHQ and I know it’s still there as I just saw it again. The full hour long version had much more detailed information. The site is News Nation. Maybe the Pentagon told them to take it down or else. It is disturbing.
the full interview is now on another channel- it’s really, really worth watching
The direct fingerprint is the measurements of trends in atmospheric CO2. We don’t argue about whether or not CO2 concentration is increasing. We argue about what are the effects of this increase, and are they detrimental, and what is the best way to respond. In other words, this cooling of the stratosphere is no more significant than the measurements at Mauna Loa.
Neutrons of secondary galactic radiation produce a lot of radioactive carbon from nitrogen in the stratosphere at high latitudes. This carbon combines with oxygen. So the CO2 in the stratosphere is of cosmic origin.
Abstract
Based on a quantitative study of the common fluctuations of 14C and 10Be production rates, we have derived a time series of the solar magnetic variability over the last 1200 years. This record is converted into irradiance variations by linear scaling based on previous studies of sun-like stars and of the sun’s behavior over the last few centuries. The new solar irradiance record exhibits low values during the well-known solar minima centered at about 1900, 1810 (Dalton) and 1690 ad(Maunder). Further back in time, a rather long period between 1450 and 1750 ad is characterized by low irradiance values. A shorter period is centered at about 1200 ad, with irradiance slightly higher or similar to present day values. It is tempting to correlate these periods with the so-called “little ice age” and “medieval warm period” respectively An accurate quantification of the climatic impact of this new irradiance record requires the use of coupled atmosphere−ocean general circulation models (GCMs). Nevertheless, our record is already compatible with a global cooling of about 0.5-1°C during the “little ice age”, and with a general cooling trend during the past millenium followed by global warming during the 20th century (Mann et al., 1999).
https://b.tellusjournals.se/articles/10.3402/tellusb.v52i3.17080
Mixing up cause and effect.
“The opinions that are held with passion are always those for which no good ground exists; indeed the passion is the measure of the holders lack of rational conviction. Opinions in politics and religion are almost always held passionately.” “The opinions that are held with passion are always those for which no good ground exists; indeed the passion is the measure of the holders lack of rational conviction. Opinions in politics and religion are almost always held passionately.” “The opinions that are held with passion are always those for which no good ground exists; indeed the passion is the measure of the holders lack of rational conviction. Opinions in politics and religion are almost always held passionately.”
what a load of rubbish
buzz aldrin held passionately that he walked on the moon
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gSPb7WM6-Hg
another metaphor that sucks is that the flack is always heaviest over the target
Regarding the above article’s lead-in Quote of the Week from Bertrand Russell, he had the first sentence incorrect and the final sentence needs the above modification to be up-to-date.
To reinforce Steven’s point, I would say the following scientists exhibited deep passion for their (scientific) beliefs, held with rational conviction:
— Issac Newton
— Galileo Galilei
— Alfred Wegener
— Albert Einstein
— Vera Rubin
There are numerous other scientists that falsify what Russel stated.