Polar Bear Hudson Bay, Canada

Polar bears in W. Hudson Bay are in good shape, says researcher. So are numbers really falling?

From Polar Bear Science

Susan Crockford

We’ve got ourselves another round of field data–i.e., facts–not fitting the polar-bears-are-starving-to-death narrative. According to polar bear specialist Andrew Derocher, Western Hudson Bay polar bears his team saw in April while installing collars and ear tags were in good shape this year, as he said they were last year. There was no spring field work in 2021 and 2020 but in 2019, he also said the bears he saw were in good condition.

Two years in a row of bears in good condition in spring–with no mention of starving bears–does not fit the picture of a population supposedly declining due to starvation. The most recent population count for WH, which garnered wide-spread media attention just before Christmas last year, claims that a 27% decline in numbers took place between 2017 and the fall of 2021 even though sea ice conditions had been good during those five years as well. It’s a perplexing situation. Makes me really wonder what that survey report actually says, but it still hasn’t been released, five months after the results made news around the world.

Spring WH bear reports

Andrew Derocher and his team of students from University of Alberta have been monitoring WH polar bears for years. They go out every spring, in April, to tag and collar bears. Derocher communicates almost exclusively via Twitter, so there is seldom anything more than brief snippets of information provided. Links below to his original tweets:

Spring 2023 – bears reported in good condition

Spring 2022 – bears reported in good condition

Spring 2021 – no field work but a population survey was done that fall

Spring 2020 – no field work but a number of bears left the ice as late as the 1980s, in mid-to-late August

Spring 2019 – bears reported in good condition and left the ice in August, as late as 1980s

Hudson Bay sea ice conditions

The patch of thick sea ice (>1m, dark green) over the central portion of the bay isn’t as extensive as it often is in early May, which may mean breakup will come earlier than it has for the last few years:

Compare above to 2020 at 4 May:

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Rud Istvan
May 14, 2023 2:53 pm

The polar bear alarm fundamentally failed on bad biological ‘science’. Polar bears get 70-80% of their annual caloric intake during the spring seal whelping season. Nobody ever said a globally warmed Arctic winter would not result in sufficient spring whelping ice. The alarmist canard that summer Arctic ice would disappear by about 2014 was ALWAYS irrelevant to polar bears. And, it didn’t happen.

This is but one of many amusing alarmist prediction failures. Some favorite others:

  1. Glacier National Park still has glaciers. So NPS signs there proclaiming the contrary were quietly removed winter of 2020 while the park was closed to visitors.
  2. UK children still know snow. Efforts to scrub UKMET Dr. Viner’s opinion to the contrary in 2000 failed thanks to the Wayback machine.
  3. Hansen’s 1990 prediction that Manhattan’s West Side Parkway would be under water by 2000 failed. Hansen’s desperate 2010 effort to say the reporter misunderstood 2000 as 2020 failed when 2020 came and the West Side Parkway was still high and dry.
  4. Small Pacific atoll Islands like Tuvalu would disappear from sea level rise acceleration. Tuvalu even held an underwater scuba cabinet meeting to emphasize the need for $$ reparations. But sat imagery shows that 95% of Pacific atoll islands are gaining land mass, something that Darwin first biologically explained in 1824.
  5. Corals and oysters would die from ocean acidification per AR4. Its faulty ocean chemistry ‘science’ ignored the fact that seawater is highly buffered, so a doubling of its dissolved CO2 can result in at most about a 0.15 pH decline (from quite alkaline 8.1 to a bit less alkaline 7.95, never acidic)—while the normal diurnal variation in fertile ocean pH is about 0.2, in which both corals and oysters thrive. Both of the papers lamenting AR4 coral and oyster demise, as cited by alarmist Seattle Times, comprise academic misconduct. I laid out the irrefutable details in essay ‘Shell Games’ in ebook Blowing Smoke.
Curious George
Reply to  Rud Istvan
May 14, 2023 4:23 pm

You can NOT fight a progressive dogma with mere facts. As they manufacture their own facts quite freely, they just know that you do the same.

David Pentland
Reply to  Curious George
May 14, 2023 6:07 pm

Correlation is not causation.

The fact that polar bears are not starving to death does not disprove the fact that your CO2 emissions are destroying ecosystems (in places that most people have never been and will never go)

Last edited 15 days ago by David Pentland
John Hultquist
Reply to  David Pentland
May 14, 2023 8:21 pm

You should have stopped after the first line.
The rest is a fact-free assertion — something a cult member has ingested.

David Pentland
Reply to  John Hultquist
May 14, 2023 8:58 pm

I should have added “sarc”.

Matthew Bergin
Reply to  David Pentland
May 15, 2023 4:35 am


Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  David Pentland
May 15, 2023 5:00 am

I read this comment just in time before I got out my virtual sledgehammer. 🙂

Reply to  David Pentland
May 15, 2023 11:54 pm

There was no need for a /sarc. It was obvious to anyone for whom:
A) English was a first language .
B) A sense of humour was inate.

Last edited 14 days ago by MCourtney
David Pentland
Reply to  MCourtney
May 16, 2023 6:42 am

But look at all the down votes!

Reply to  Rud Istvan
May 15, 2023 2:15 pm

Arctic sea ice was lower for most of the Holocene, ie the past 11,400 years, without harming polar bears. For that matter, their less “derived” ancestors weathered the hotter, longer Eemian interglacial just fine.

These ancestors more than 115 Ka were already seal-eating specialists descended from brown bears, but with fewer of the further adaptations of modern polies.

Last edited 14 days ago by Milo
May 14, 2023 11:33 pm

Makes me really wonder what that survey report actually says, but it still hasn’t been released, five months after the results made news around the world.

Why would they? It leaves their report open to critical analysis and the possibility of being refuted. An informed public is antithetical to the Leftist agenda. Half truths and hyperbole are their favored methods for a conversation dialog communication indoctrination.

Last edited 15 days ago by stinkerp
May 15, 2023 10:45 am

Are the polar bears still an issue for global warming proponents? I’ll go check their sites, I guess. I remember around the time of Inconvenient Truth, polar bear population seemed to be an issue, then it “went away”. If the bear population still matters, the specific population referenced in the movie should now be a relevant data point.

“Polar bears can live up to 25 or 30 years in the wild.”
“An Inconvenient Truth is a 2006 American documentary film “

Last edited 14 days ago by KevinM
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