Here in the weird West, where we set aside our vast wealth, bountiful resources, technological prowess, best-in-history medical/safety establishments, and other assorted existential victories to get into fistfights about whether more racism will eliminate racism and who can go to the bathroom where, we are used to watching ancient conflicts take place on the other side of the world, shaking our head, and wondering either “Why can’t they all just get along” or “Well that’s unacceptable, better step in.”
The weird west has long gotten involved in many of these conflicts because of, well, o-i-l. It’s been that way since the 1950s, probably longer; the west’s insatiable thirst for hydrocarbons has driven a lot of international shenanigans and weird relationships. Recall that after a gang of terrorists hijacked four planes and flew them into the US’ most fundamental landmarks on home soil, and that more than half of those terrorists were from Saudi Arabia, the US promptly and expectedly retaliated – by invading two other countries, and going for tea with Saudi Arabia. Kind of transparent, that one.
But that established hydrocarbon-based camaraderie is fading fast, and it doesn’t look like the West has a game plan in response. That’s about as far as I’ll wade into geopolitics because the whole mess is grossly complicated (who hates who again this week?), other than to point out how rapidly things are changing and how that is impacting the energy world.
As a backbone or framework for this whole discussion, keep in mind that low gasoline prices are of paramount importance to US politicians. They trump everything. No matter what tub is being thumped or what policy is being terror-drilled into the minds of citizens (climate emergency, for example), it will be dropped like a hot potato if it means higher gasoline prices.
Consumers don’t really care about big geopolitical things in their day-to-day life, and they aren’t really scared by the weather (tornado alley excepted). But gasoline prices are on every huge sign in every town in every state; nothing else has its price shoved in your face so vehemently. And those consumers really get up in arms when gasoline prices get too high.
To show how seriously politicians take this, the US half-drained the strategic petroleum reserve last year for the sole purpose of lowering domestic gasoline prices before an election.
The west has befriended some fairly dubious characters in the past to ensure access to big juicy oil fields (see 9/11 example above). Much of the world order as we know it has been built around access to cheap energy. For the longest time, it was the US’ might economic engine, the biggest by far in the world, that moved the big chess pieces around.
Everything went through the US – either through Washington, or through Wall Street. That’s not necessarily a critique; that’s what superpowers do.
But storm clouds are on the horizon for the existing superpower order.
Just this past weekend, OPEC – led by Saudi Arabia – announced another production cut in a bid to shore up oil prices. Now, on its own, this isn’t a big deal; OPEC/Saudis have been doing that for decades (both real cuts and sabre-rattling false charges). But this cut was a big deal – it was huge, possibly 1.6 million barrels per day (probably less, but still significant), and it was directly in the face of the US administration which wants to see more oil, and not less. Increased oil prices are like a new tax on everyone, a tax that hits poor people hardest, and politicians seldom want to be associated with that.
Not very long ago, the US government was admonishing producers to produce more, urging OPEC to open the taps, and then finally draining strategic reserves, all in effort to drive down gasoline prices.
A few months into 2023, with oil prices far lower than last year, the US is supposed to be refilling the SPR, which would have had the effect of stabilizing oil prices in this range. But they won’t do it, and Saudi Arabia + buddies said ‘enough’ and acted voluntarily in a move that seemed to surprise almost everyone.
This isn’t just oil market machinations; this is the tip of a very big iceberg. It is a new big kid on the block flexing its muscles. I’m not referring to Saudi Arabia here, but a whole new context in which Saudi Arabia appears to be quite comfortable in going its own way. Here’s why they are feeling that chipper.
The BRICS alliance – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – is apparently no longer willing to stand by and have someone else dictate how their world will go (so to speak). They are flexing their muscles, and bringing in other nations as well. The following countries have expressed an interest in joining BRICS – Iran, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Egypt, Bahrain and Indonesia, along with two nations from East Africa and one from West Africa, according to a Bloomberg article. There is talk that Mexico wants to join as well, which is quite the thunderbolt considering the leaky border it shares with the US.
The repercussions of this development are hard to understate. Consider Iran, historically viewed as a troublemaker here in the West, dubbed a member of the “Axis of Evil” by George W. Bush some 20 years ago. Iran has been (at least theoretically) shut out of global oil markets because of their tinkering with nuclear weapons and their animosity towards neighbours that have a lot of oil (more than Iran anyway, which is the equation that matters).
Iran has been sanctioned, yelled at, barred from oil markets, and viewed as a pariah. Even many in the neighbourhood can’t stand them; per a 2019 BBC article, Saudi Arabia and Iran are ‘bitter rivals’ fighting for regional control, and probably have been for a thousand years ever since someone forgot to take their boots off in somebody’s house or something (history is not my strong suit).
They are even riven by religion, and we all know how those spats turn out. Perhaps you prefer Time magazine’s infinitely more eloquent take: “In the pantheon of intractable, visceral conflicts, the feud between Iran and Saudi Arabia sits below few: rooted in doctrine, enmeshed in history, and waged via proxies across the Middle East.”
But holy crap look at what just happened. China has just brokered a peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Well, maybe not a peace deal, that would be quite the accomplishment, but did manage to reestablish diplomatic ties, and has made incredible headway in healing that relationship, which seems even more bizarre than if Dr. Phil actually was to do that for once.
It gets even more eye-opening: China has stepped into the Russian war to try to broker a peace deal with Ukraine, and reportedly both Putin and Zelenskyy welcomed the move.
Bizarrely, or maybe not, the US admin turned up its nose at both diplomatic coups; with respect to the Saudi-Iran deal, the Biden admin downplayed it as insignificant and preferred to talk about China’s threat to the “rules-based international order.” Is the “rules-based international order” designed to keep conflicts going? And of course, the Russia-Ukraine talks were a nonstarter for the West, a point which I totally get since Ukraine wants its territory back, but that’s beside the point.
The point is that the axis of the world is shifting. Western Europe and the US no longer call all the shots; the old powers that spend a century or two civilizing and carving up the world to their satisfaction no longer may be in the driver’s seat. A thousand books could be written on that topic, but here I am sticking to the energy aspect because, you know, this is the BOE Report, and not Chauncy Goodfeather’s Oxford Guide to the Management of Barbarians, Boors and Yokels (don’t bother Googling that), and besides that it is worth noting how the energy world is being shaken up.
Actually, it might not be shaken up in a global sense as much as we’d think, but here in the West we’re going to get a good metaphorical whack on the side of the head. Cast your mind back to the list of countries either in BRICS or applying to join. In that group are billions of people, many of whom have insufficient power, nutrition, clean drinking water, etc. Even a significant number of Russians apparently don’t have indoor toilets, which maybe their leadership should have worried about that crappy situation rather than invading countries.
And amongst that crowd, Iran is set to potentially join the club. A few billion people don’t find them so evil, I guess. I’m not defending that regime, just sayin’.
For all these billions of BRICS people, energy security and availability are pretty high up on their list of priorities, in stark contrast to the West’s obsession with reducing CO2 levels at absolutely any cost. It is the sheer quantity of energy available (or not available) that is a problem for the BRICS gang, which is one reason China is the world’s leader in installing renewable energy but also is building new coal-fired power plants hand over fist. They need it all. India also builds a lot of solar, but relies on coal, and buys oil from Russia without a care in the world. Hungry mouths come first.
Here in the West, we generate research reports by credible institutions that point out that we don’t have enough minerals and metals to perform the energy transition that we flamboyantly carve into law, and then we just shout “Who cares” and bring the net zero timelines even closer.
We adopt grandiose plans to develop our own critical minerals supply chains, acting completely obliviously to the fact that segments of our very own citizenry will protest the bejeezus out of any new mine application, out of any new large infrastructure development, out of any new messy and environmentally unfriendly metals/minerals processing industry that the Chinese currently have a lock on, and that we can’t do a thing without.
In the rest of the world where hundreds of millions would be ecstatic to have a refrigerator, their aspirations are somewhat more grounded and less insane.
That vast group, the one that is scrabbling for survival and sees a chance for a better future by joining BRICS, has a far different take on what their most pressing emergency is.
Don’t dismiss BRICS as the ‘developing world’ or any such label as we like to scribble on foreheads at our whim; the BRICS group, even without all the new recruits, has surpassed the G7 in GDP. The founding BRICS group has a combined population of well over 3 billion, versus less than one billion for ‘the west’, which means a lot of consumers, a very big market, and a good chunk of the world’s resources.
Now that even the likes of the filthy rich Saudis are looking to join the BRICS party, it should be apparent to us over here in the West that maybe we have better things to worry about than that which is amplified by our preoccupation with our Victim of the Week Wailing Club.
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Read more insightful analysis from Terry Etam here, or email Terry here.
It’s seller’s market that oil cartel wants to maintain for decades to come.
If a terrorist organization hired someone born in France to attack the US, would you go after France, or the country that harbored and supported the terrorist organization?
I do not remember Bush invading Pakistan. Our ally in the war on terror and recipient of many millions of US foreign aid.
That’s because Pakistan was where Bin Laden fled to after we chased him out of Afghanistan.
No need to guess or imagine. Write France instead of US, Belgium instead of France.
France did not send its army against Belgium, instead of Afghanistan. Some people suggested we should though.
9-11 was aimed at the Saudi government, not the US as such.Bin Laden was opposed to the current royal family, so the US reaction was reasonable, unless one wants to blame all Saudi nationals for the actions of attempted rebels.
USA has enjoyed the privilege of being globally banker for almost 80 years. The USA has a truly massive international debt but there is no obligation of consequence attached to it because it is denominated in USDs and they have no limit and no direct cost to create.
But when your banker seizes your account, you find another banker. This is a key reason why the BRICS are emerging so rapidly and other nations wanting to get on board.
The USA has abused the privilege of being the global banker and other nations are doing what any sensible person would do – find another banker. China is emerging as the new banker of choice.
The story in a single chart attached.
Still small compared to USD but the growth of CNY is the compelling aspect. And that growth is not by accident
The US administration may not see oil and other fossil fuels as being important in the future but China certainly does. AS does their suppliers.
The Chinese leadership is viewed as businessmen and statesmen. The US administration is viewed as bent.
“China is emerging as the new banker of choice.”
nah! This century will also be America’s just like the last.
The GBP was backed by gold from 1717 and maintained its global status as world currency up to the Second World War. So the USD has really only been dominant since the second world war not the entire 20th century. London has remained a major financial centre.
China is such a dominant player in global trade that the CNY is trending to overtake USD by 2050.
USA is locked into a low growth, high inflation environment with growing dependence on offshore energy sources, raw materials and manufactured goods.
China’s growth is a modest 5% but they are forming powerful trading partners. Russian, African, Arabian and South American resources, Chinese manufacturing and Indian consumers – a perfect match. China cannot grow wealthy as it grows old by doing what Japan did. It has to expand its horizons by developing more of the world and is doing that.
What is lacking is good leadership from the United States. When the U.S. stops leading, others jump in. It’s only natural.
The current U.S. administration is doing everything possible to destroy U.S. leadership. The Trafficer-in-Chief, Joe Biden, is a disaster for the United States and the World.
Worst president ever! And he’s not done yet! Although, the Republican House of Representatives will slow him down some.
Emmanuel Macron and Ursula von der Leyen are visiting Beijing, telling Xi who to befriend and who not to befriend. Strange. The only superpower of this meeting is China.
Don’t underestimate Europe. And don’t overestimate China- many countries don’t like it or trust it.
Joseph, there is no such thing as Europe (politically speaking). The EU is a pet project evolved by German/French anxieties about each other. The EU has evolved into a self sustaining image of global importance, more image than reality. The minor members of the EU and particularly the Eurozone members, are finally waking up to the scale of the error they have become a captive part of. As the cost of living in ‘Europe’ becomes too high to sustain a meaningful life, people will react. France is currently reacting, Holland is reacting others will follow.
Britain knew sooner than most the error they had made joining the EEC then the EU as it developed. Others will do the same as the UK and exit the monstrous totalitarian regime. Once the EU’s energy policies become so impossible people simply can not live in energy poverty any longer, it will collapse.
Italy looks like the next to leave.
maybe, maybe not- doubters over the EU have been around for a long time- it’s still here- its problems are like those of America, with its huge diversity of people and customs- and of course some would like to see America break up- it won’t
The differences between the EU and the USA are so massive and so significant, politically, there is no similarity between them. No one sensible could possibly compare the two.
Comparison doesn’t mean equating- it just means discuss how they may be similar and ways in which they’re not. The idea that the EU is going to fail any time soon isn’t convincing.
I can compare an apple to an orange but not equate them.
There is the continent of Europe and the European Union. The EU was an idea whose time had pasted when it came into being. Jean Monnet proposed it post First World War to put an end to European wars mainly involving Germany and France. We then had another war at the end of which two political sides had emerged that bound all the countries to one side or the other. So with NATO on one side and the Soviet controlled states on the other, the need for Monnet’s idea was gone. Sadly he persevered and having failed on the full union of states, he was advised – sadly by a Brit – to start with trade. Hence what began with trade was always intended to be a political union advancing to a superstate. To this day there are still Tory politicians who don’t understand this.
Ursula von de leyen is not Europe. She is the corrupt criminal mouthpiece for a quasi autonomous mafia style bureaucracy that represents no one but itself.
I don’t give it another ten years.
I think you just described ALL governments but governments will be with us forever. I’m no fan of them but I don’t fantasy they’ll go away.
CORRECTION – “the US half-drained the strategic petroleum reserve last year for the sole purpose of lowering domestic gasoline prices before an election” – Only President Joe Biden does this.
Now that even the likes of the filthy rich Saudis are looking to join the BRICS party, it should be apparent to us over here in the West that maybe we have better things to worry about than that which is amplified by our preoccupation with our Victim of the Week Wailing Club.
It catches them all in the long run-
Chicago University activists launch reparations campaign calling for $1B (msn.com)
The Biden administration is all about sheer incompetence unless you believe that they are doing it on purpose as some writers claims as for me, I saw this coming several years ago when it became known the third world have grown tired of the bullying hypocritical western world began to work their way off the American dollar on petroleum buying which has happened starting last year.
If I can see it coming you can be sure the Feds see it far more deeply, yet they are standing around about like gibbering idiots which is a puzzling thing to behold.
Leftists are trying to destroy the Republic?
It is a matter of priority. Fixing the weather comes first. Nothing else matters. Unless you can fix the weather, the planet will burn up.
Mission accomplished, imo. Look around.
I have been looking around heck I have been covering it a lot at my forum with many articles showing how the Western world is in decline because over their overbearing behavior.
The Eastern World had enough now banded together in recent years to protect themselves.
The US White House is now the center of a great power vacuum. And as we know nature abhors a vacuum. All manner of contortions are rushing to fill the void and Lord knows how it will turn out.
Something is consuming their brains, due to too much COVID power
Even worse than the West’s delusional obsession with global warming to the detriment of global well-being is the insidious ennui and self obsession that have become our defining traits. When a culture loses its desire to build for the future, even to reproduce, the writing is probably on the wall. Life without challenge has caused a rot that may well be terminal. Is there enough vitality left in the West to support our burgeoning ranks of chronically useless? I guess we are going to find out.
Don’t forget China’s role in bringing Saudi and Iran together, and it wide ranging agreement with Saudi last year.
The new world order will be China led
Biden’s stupid foreign policy is what brought Saudi and Iran together. The Chicoms are just taking advantage. And the Saudis like poking Biden in the eye.
The Chicoms are trying to form a new world order. Time will tell if they succeed or not. I don’t think their takeover of the world is inevitable, unless we are stuck with incompetent leaders like Biden for many more years.
Why is the west full of culture destroying nonsense, attempts to force solutions that don’t work to fix a problem that doesn’t exist?
How much cheaper to wage a cultural war of attrition, than to actually jump in the tanks. A network of global organizations funnel oil and gas money straight into institutions that will whine and complain the most and make the most trouble. The media, Hollywood, the legal system – all is subverted, and the financial industry goes along for the short term profit.
Leaders are bribed or blackmailed. Honest men are ‘cancelled’.
The delusion that the war in Ukraine is not the USAs problem when it has been under attack for 60 years by the Russian state.
Putin made a huge mistake by showing a part of the hand. But he was dying and an egotist. He wanted his legacy.
China is flexing its military muscles too, because its economy is broken, it needs Taiwan for its semiconductor industry. The Arabs dream of their Islamic Caliphate. All they have to do is migrate to the West and outbreed the natives. The Africans will sell out to the highest bidder, and always have.
Crazy dreams of power and world domination everywhere you look.
Well, step one is to put Russia back in its cage. Decisively and with as much humiliation as possible.
Step two is to decouple from an energy source largely controlled by and profiting our enemies. And that means massive deployment of as much nuclear power as possible.
Step three is to deglobalise the population. Migrants are as dangerous as enemy agents if allowed en masse.
Step four is to reintroduce education, not as teaching people what to think, but how to think.
“China is flexing its military muscles too, because its economy is broken, it needs Taiwan for its semiconductor industry.”
A war with Taiwan will destroy Taiwan’s semiconductor industry. If the Chicoms need chips from Taiwan, then they should be nice to Taiwan.
If the Chicoms were smart, they would be mounting a Charm Offensive with Taiwan and the rest of the world. They would be much more successful at trying to dominate the world if they would refrain from scaring the hell out of everyone.
But, the Chicoms are not smart. They think they can bully their way to the top.
A great write up.
Russia has been derided as a gas station, just a regional power, which just happens to have more nuclear bombs than China and the US, but also the hypersonic means to deliver them.
China has more high speed rail miles than all of the rest of the world. The U.S. has none.
China has gliding hypersonic missiles capable of orbiting around the world, by bouncing off the atmosphere
Both are BRICS leaders to which other countries, such as the Saudis, will be allied
In the U.S. there are plenty of families, not in the news, with outhouses
From the article: “Consumers don’t really care about big geopolitical things in their day-to-day life, and they aren’t really scared by the weather (tornado alley excepted).”
An underground storm shelter will keep you safe. Sometimes, that’s the only thing that will keep you safe, depending on the strength of the tornado. An EF5 tornado will practically destroy everything on the surface, leaving concrete slabs as the only evidence a house was there. You need to be underground for one of those.
Fortunately, the chances of being hit by a tornado of any kind are relatively small. But there’s always a chance.
I keep my eye on the local weather forecasters during such weather. They can tell you if you need to get to shelter. Their stormchasers are usually observing the tornadoes directly, so they can tell you where they are located.
We’ve been lucky this year in Oklahoma. We have been getting good rain in Eastern Oklahoma, but there is still drought in Western Oklahoma, so Oklahoma is getting the rain in the Eastern part, but the big powerful storms are forming to the east of Oklahoma for the past few weeks.
The focus of the powerful storms is determined by how the jet stream is configured. Presently, it is keeping the really strong storms east of Oklahoma.
Now, if we could just get decent rains in western Oklahoma. I think they are going to get a little in the next few days, but they need a lot. Western Kansas, too.
As a person who managed to get through the past holiday season–for six weeks, mind you–without a functioning refrigerator, I have a lot of sympathy for those in the world who would be ecstatic to have one. I sure was when I got one that worked.
However, while I agree with Terry that energy and access to cheap affordable energy is paramount, I would not downplay the extent we have become dependent on China and other countries for so many of our manufactured goods, including refrigerators, washing machines, etc., that we rely on.
One would think it would not be so hard to get a working refrigerator in the US. My own saga with the refrigerator was actually much longer than 6 weeks. It was closer to 18 months, in which time I had 3 different new refrigerators, finally getting one that has been here less than a month and so far functions properly. (Yes, I am holding my breath that the situation continues.)
In short, we have farmed out the manufacture of almost everything we need and are desperately hoping that both the products themselves and the supply lines that bring them to us do not fail. There is probably not a good ending in that scenario.
Many problems with the article, although the primary theme is accurate:
1) The US does NOT have the best medical establishment. Just look at the numbers: life expectancy falling at historic rates, more children dying, most bankruptcies due to medical bills, etc etc. Nor are Americans healthy by any other measure as a people. The US might have the best medicine for the richest people in the world; it definitely does not have the best medicine for Americans overall vs any other nation and its citizens.
2) The US does not have the best technology. Whether you listen to Thiel and his note that US productivity has literally flatlined for decades, or note that the West is conspicuously lacking in hypersonic missiles, or the sad state of infrastructure/society in New York, Paris, London, San Francisco, etc vs. Shanghai or Saint Petersburg, or the high expense/low bandwidth of internet options for households in even very poor nations vs. the West, or the 25000 miles of high speed rail in China vs. the 0 miles in the US and the maybe 10000 miles in Europe, etc etc.
3) Resources. The US has energy resources and food, but does not have metals or other commodities. Nowhere enough to supply demand just in the US. Europe doesn’t have energy even and we will find out about the food in a year or two.
4) Manufacturing. The US and the West in general cannot even supply Ukraine enough artillery to equal 1/3 of Russia’s artillery usage. France just proudly announced it was doubling its artillery contributions to Ukraine from 1000 to 2000 shells per month when Ukraine is using 3000-5000 per day and the Russian 20000 or more. Nor is it just military industry: the US imports 2/3rds of the large transformers that are the basis of the US electrical grid. The US imports half or more of pretty much anything else you can name: steel, glass, aluminum, pharmceutical precursor chemicals, clothing, etc etc. Even the car industry – 48% are imports!
The author also missed another key point: Japan is not going to adhere to the oil price cap on Russia. So the 3rd largest economy in the world and in the G7 is not going to comply with the West’s attempt to take over control of the oil market’s pricing.
Who has proven missiles?
China isn’t so much the new banker as a new mafia loan shark. There are already a few broken kneecaps, but as mentioned by others, the lack of trust in U.S. leadership and abuses by the World Bank has left countries desperate for a money source that won’t apply immediate restrictions.
I struggle some what with Terry’s article but it’s hard to put my finger on what bothers me. I suppose it is that Terry is upset that we trade with bad people such as the Saudis. We don’t have to like the people we trade with. I don’t feel one way or the other toward the Saudis. Thank god they are there with their oil when our leaders are busy saving us. Our leaders can really be dumb, therefore we want the Saudis to be there.
As for BRICS and those who want to join them who can blame them? Again we go back to our own disgraceful leadership, they are going out of their way to drive the world to BRICS and then feel betrayed. What a bunch of morons, you can’t hold people down and expect them to sacrifice for you, then expect them to look up to you and reach out to you for help.
Poorly Zeroed is a novel that portrays China as the world’s only remaining superpower and the United States as a declining banana republic, buried by overzealous Net Zero Policy.
The West and notably Donald Trump, the most libertarian style brainwashed of all, have been brainwashed to see Saddam Hussein as a stable tyran, the evil we know.
Saddam helped terrorists, promoted Islamism, partly created ISIS.
That’s Trump weakest and lamest take ever.
What is it all about, Oil and natural gas? I don’t think so. It’s about the long-term outlook of populations of people and markets for fuel, consumables, and the prospective economic development of Russia and central Asia. Putin and China know that economic development requires hydrocarbon fuel. They know economic development requires PEOPLE for labor and for supply and demand for manufactured products and consumables. It’s about long-term markets and the economic development of the part of the world that still is well above replacement fertility rates.
Putin sees the West as an expression of the WEF program, which does not have the economic development of Russia, Eastern Europe, or Central Asia in mind. (It is not clear if this program is what Putin refers to as fascist or if he was only referring to Ukrainian Neo-fascist groups…. maybe it is both …. but unclear to me).
What the WEF program has in mind is the depopulation and a regression of economic development to save the planet and control the peoples of the world via recent and anticipated AI and Quantum computing advancements. It wants to concentrate the world’s available capital for market control to prevent massive development of undeveloped countries whose populations are growing. This is a massive program of economic redistribution with massive concentrations of wealth in elite stake holder groups. China likely sees the WEF program as a leveraging opportunity, but Putin sees it as a threat to his plan to economically develop Russia (Russian people are poorer than India).
Central Asia, India, Eastern Europe, SE Asia, Africa, and the Philippines have growing younger populations. This is the future of the hydrocarbon markets and the labor and consumer supply and demand for the world. If the west isn’t going to invest and develop these countries, (the WEF program is dependency and control not development), then the door is wide open for Russia and China…. that is, Putin with his hydrocarbon fuel and China with manufacturing. (This is why we must stop the crazy in the west and partner with Russia and China to develop the world. It is also a much safer option than a two-world system)
Russia, China, Japan, USA, Canada South Korea, Brazil, Europe, Australia, New Zealand, have birth rates below replacement levels: 1.17-1.77 and these numbers may be inflated and the rates are in significant decline with no signs of turning around in time to prevent depopulation. (I don’t think it would take much to turn them around…an “everything is fine just be happy!) campaign would do it LOL)
The larger more complex question than what has already happened with the Eastern Hydrocarbon Market Partition (quasi/pseudo), is the etiology of plummeting birth rates in the countries with mature economic and capital development. What are the possible factors
Historically, fertility rates increase with economic prosperity and stability. The West has had stable prosperity for many decades. why the decline in fertility in the past 14 years? Have we damaged our souls. Minds are useless without a soul. Minds by themselves have no wisdom. Souls are severely weakened by being lied to endlessly and almost capitulated by addictions. This is the fruit of nihilism as a default conclusion.
Why are the poorest most undeveloped countries in the world still have growing populations? The history of the fertility dynamic has been turned on its head…. How, and why?
What poison has the west been consuming for the past 40 years that is keeping our kids from getting married and having children?
The fertility rate has declined faster in Russia and China more most other places. This is the reason for the consolidation of the hydrocarbon fuel market in the EAST. China and Russia must have growing markets in the East and South Asia and to let go of the West who is in population, intellectual decline, and self-destructing and unwilling to economically partner with them to develop the world. Russia and China’s vision for the world is not dystopic…… it’s growth. This means they are far more likely to be successful than the west…we are in a long term fade. Time to pull out of it before it’s too late.
The very forces that propelled globalism are now failing it with the realization of a two-world system, East and West and radical environmentalism appears to be at the Center of it as does megalomaniacal pursuit of god machines.
A two-world system is very dangerous. We thought we had an arms race 10 years ago…. now we will see massive growth in arming god machines and quantum communications.
I think the situation is already too advanced to stop it, even if Biden desperately tries to distract us with Taiwan.
The article forgot to mention that Turkey wants to join BRICS and is not just any country.
I visited it. A kind of Germany. Mercedes and VW factories that Germany cannot give up.
And 5 million German tourists and 5 million Russian tourists (yes, Russians who “pretend” not to be at war).
Tourist information in Turkish, Russian and German. Is something missing? English!
. . . and, Turkey is a NATO member!