The Week That Was: 2023-03-25 (March 25, 2023)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “No government has the right to decide on the truth of scientific principles.”— Richard Feynman [H/t CO2 Coalition]
Number of the Week: 145 Times
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: The issues discussed include the following. On March 20, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its Synthesis Report on its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6, 2021, 2022). The full report came in three parts: 1) Working Group I, the physical science; 2) Working Group II, impacts of climate change; and 3) Working Group III, progress in limiting emissions. AR6 changed terminology of possible future emissions from Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) leading to some confusion among commentators as to what is the most extreme case being used. Usually, the popular press and politicians emphasize the most extreme case.
The Synthesis Report had an eight-page Fact Sheet that reveals the political nature of the entire report. Page eight showed that the final draft of each part was reviewed only by representatives of governments. This is political review, not scientific review. Certain key parts of the Summary for Policymakers of the Synthesis Report and accompanying material are review below.
A big issue with carbon dioxide (CO2) caused climate change is the extent to which an increase in temperatures will cause an increase in atmospheric water vapor, amplifying the increase in temperatures. Global climate modelers insisted on a dramatic rise in water vapor during the preparation of the 1979 Charney Report. The question is, where is the evidence? The “hot spot” over the tropics at about 50,000 feet is a myth. Climate researcher Andy May explores other possibilities.
Emeritus Professor of Physics at the University of Oxford Wade Allison taught physics and mathematics and was a researcher at CERN, the European Organization for Nuclear Research, home of the Large Hadron Collider. He applied his considerable skills in analyzing the ability of wind power to provide electricity for the UK and EU and finds it inadequate.
Financial commentator Rupert Darwall states that the economics profession has been very quiet about the impracticality of Net Zero. He called the belief that the faster western nations decarbonize, the wealthier they will become — “cakeism” — “the wish to have or do two good things at the same time when this is impossible.” The International Energy Agency (IEA) is a promoter of this false belief.
Last week, TWTW discussed that US National Renewable Energy Laboratories (NREL) reported that the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law contain $430 billion for renewable (wind and solar) electrical power. The Wall Street Journal reports that a study by Goldman-Sachs projects far more than that. The IRA alone has subsidies that may cost $1.2 trillion. The US government will spend any amount needed to reduce inflation?
In the 2022 decision on West Virginia v. EPA, the US Supreme Court has slapped down the EPA’s efforts to control the use of fossil fuels for generation of electricity under the false claim that it is a primary cause of dangerous climate change. The EPA is back claiming that fine particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions from the use of fossil fuels are a severe health concern. These particles of 2.5 microns or less (there are about 25,000 microns in an inch) are claimed to increase asthma and mortality from lung cancer and heart disease. The evidence is largely based on mathematical speculation, not death certificates or even rigorous statistics. On March 28 comments on the EPA’s new regulations are due. Several comments are made below.
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AR6 Synthesis Report: In the IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report, 2023, there is a section called “Headline Statements”: “overarching conclusions of the approved Summary for Policymakers which, taken together, provide a concise narrative.” Under Observed Warming and its Causes is the following:
“Human activities, principally through emissions of greenhouse gases, have unequivocally caused global warming, with global surface temperature reaching 1.1°C above 1850–1900 in 2011–2020. Global greenhouse gas emissions have continued to increase, with unequal historical and ongoing contributions arising from unsustainable energy use, land use and land-use change, lifestyles and patterns of consumption and production across regions, between and within countries, and among individuals (high confidence). {2.1, Figure 2.1, Figure 2.2}.”
Interestingly, these lead to a set of figures in Chapter 2 of the AR6 Working Group I report titled “Upper air temperature trends” primarily from Radio occultation, which uses instruments on satellites. The figure shows an increase in atmospheric temperatures, (except for two small hot spots) showing an increase ranging from 0.15 °C per decade to 0.45 °C per decade over the period 2002 to 2019. The once vaunted tropical hot spot is gone. It showed a pronounced warming at an altitude of about 9 kilometers (km) to 15 km. Instead, there is a general warming from about 9 km to 25 km. In the graph is a line for a warming shown by AIRS Infrared satellite instruments, but it is not clear what it shows, because there is no relationship between temperature and altitude (or latitude) shown.
A compelling omission is that the report ignores the entire data record (1979 to 2022) of the lower troposphere, from surface to about 10 km (33,000 feet) which is where the greenhouse effect primarily occurs. Above the lower troposphere, water vapor (which is claimed to double a warming from CO2) freezes out and cannot be a significant cause of warming. In the troposphere, air cools with higher altitude. The cooling is called the lapse rate and is subject to thermal inversions from convection (weather). Above the troposphere, the stratosphere, air warms with higher altitude to about 50 km (31 miles). This omission is one of several “red flags” raised in this IPCC report.
The section with the graph titled: “Limiting warming to 1.5°C and 2°C involves rapid, deep and in most cases immediate reduction of greenhouse gas emissions” states:
“Figure SPM.5: Global emissions pathways consistent with implemented policies and mitigation strategies. Panels (a), (b) and (c) show the development of global GHG, CO2 and methane emissions in modelled pathways, while panel (d) shows the associated timing of when GHG and CO2 emissions reach net zero. Colored ranges denote the 5th to 95th percentile across the global modelled pathways falling within a given category as described in Box SPM.1.”
Note that water vapor is not mentioned. Yet it was an increase in atmospheric water vapor caused by a warming caused by an increase in CO2 that was the primary concern giving rise to the whole CO2 warming fear. The graphs are colorful but meaningless. The real question is who is going to compel China, India, and the rest of Asia to comply? The leaders of these countries appear to be more scientifically literate than the politicized authors of this report. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy, Questioning the Orthodoxy and https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/atmosphere/layers-earths-atmosphere#:~:text=UCAR%2FRandy%20Russell-,Troposphere,occurs%20in%20this%20lowest%20layer.
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The Water Vapor Problem: The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4, 2007) featured a pronounced warming above the tropical regions centered at about 8 to 12 km. This has been a source of contention since the report. The source of the speculated warming is latent heat released as water vapor condenses and falls as rain. The results of atmospheric data are mixed. Researcher Andy May carefully discusses the varied, uncertain signals given by various datasets. He writes:
“Bottom line, water vapor feedback is a huge (66% according to Pierrehumbert) part of the dangerous greenhouse gas hypothesis. Total atmospheric water vapor content is very difficult to measure accurately, but the measurements and trends we have today do not support the hypothesis over all time periods. It seems likely that the Clausius-Clapeyron relation is not the only factor affecting TPW [Total Precipitable Water]. This casts considerable doubt on the CMIP6 model results, which rely only on Clausius-Clapeyron, human activities, and sporadic volcanism.”
However, May concludes:
“’In summary, radiosonde, GPS and satellite observations of tropospheric water vapor indicate very likely increases at near global scales since the 1970s occurring at a rate that is generally consistent with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation (about 7% per degree Celsius) and the observed increase in atmospheric temperature.’
The uncertainty arising from different datasets is used by some dangerous global warming advocates to reject findings by John Christy and Ross McKitrick and others who show a failure to demonstrate a tropical hotspot. The advocates claim that simply because a hotspot cannot be found with statistical certainty, that is no reason for denying its existence. This is science fiction: because you cannot disprove that ghosts do not exist, they exist?
In their work “Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases” W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer use the detailed HITRAN database that is based on laboratory experiments modified by almost 50 years of data from weather balloons measuring temperature, pressure and relative water vapor up to about 130,000 feet (39.6 km). Using these data for clear skies, they divide the troposphere into 100 segments (a typo in an earlier TWTW had 500 segments) and found a midlatitude lapse rate to above 10 km (33,000 feet). Above that the temperatures were constant to about 20 km (66,000 feet). The point here is that the IPCC is bringing back a pronounced warming between about 9 km and 15 km where very little water vapor exists. There is nothing unusual about a warming of the stratosphere with increasing altitude, which is shown by van Wijngaarden and Happer. The warming with altitude continues until the Mesopause and above that there is a cooling in the Mesosphere. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and https://wvanwijngaarden.info.yorku.ca/files/2020/12/WThermal-Radiationf.pdf?x45936. Note: recent papers by van Wijngaarden and Happer will be discussed in an upcoming TWTW.
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But Not Today: Wade Allison neatly summarizes the inadequacy of wind power at the beginning of his paper for the Global Warming Policy Foundation. He writes:
“The plan dramatically to cut the combustion of fossil fuels was accepted at the 2015 Paris Conference. The instinctive reaction around the world has been to revert to ‘renewables’, the sources of energy delivered intermittently by the power of the Sun. Unfortunately, this power, attenuated by the huge distance that it must travel to reach the Earth, is extremely weak. That is why, before the advent of the Industrial Revolution, it was unable to provide the energy to sustain even a small global population with an acceptable standard of living.
Today, modern technology is deployed to harvest these weak sources of energy. Vast ‘farms’ that monopolize the natural environment are built, to the detriment of other creatures. Developments are made regardless of the damage wrought. Hydro-electric schemes, enormous turbines and square miles of solar panels are constructed, despite being unreliable and ineffective; even unnecessary.1
In particular, the generation of electricity by wind tells a disappointing story. The political enthusiasm and the investor hype are not supported by the evidence, even for offshore wind, which can be deployed out of sight of the infamous My Back Yard. What does such evidence actually say?
That the wind fluctuates is common knowledge. But these fluctuations are grossly magnified to an extent that is not immediately obvious – and has nothing to do with the technology of the wind turbine. The energy of the wind is that of the moving air, and, as every student knows, such energy is ½Mv squared, where M is the mass of air and v the speed. The mass of air reaching each square meter of the area swept by the turbine blade in a second is M=ρv, where ρ is the density of air: about 1.2kg per cubic meter. So, the maximum power that the turbine can deliver is one-half ρ times v cubed watts per square meter.
If the wind speed is 10 meters per second (about 20 mph) the power is 600 watts per square meter at 100% efficiency. That means to deliver the same power as Hinkley Point C (3200 million watts) by wind would require 5.5 million square meters of turbine swept area – that should be quite unacceptable to those who care about birds and to other environmentalists.
But the performance of wind is much worse than that, as a look at the simple formula shows. Because the power carried by the wind depends on the third power of the wind speed, if the wind drops to half speed, the power available drops by a factor of 8. Almost worse, if the wind speed doubles, the power delivered goes up 8 times, and as a result the turbine has to be turned off for its own protection. This is not related to the technology of the turbine, which can harvest no more than the power that reaches the area swept by its blades.”
Slight variations in wind cause great variations in electricity generated, contributing to a destabilization of the electric grid, the stability of which is critical as discussed in last week’s TWTW.
Allison concludes by discussing an announcement by (now former) PM Boris Johnson claiming that wind farms could power every UK home by 2030. Allison writes:
“The significant word in the announcement was ‘could’. Evidently, offshore wind might provide such lighting in the UK – sometimes. But Great Britain needs reliable energy all the time. British consumers should follow the example of Alice who, in negotiating terms with the White Queen, insisted on clarification of the day on which jam should be delivered. Evidently, they should not look to wind power for reliable energy, but elsewhere.1
With general energy shortages, the war in Europe, high prices and the likelihood of failures in electricity supply, many popular scientific presumptions underlying energy policy should be questioned. Wind power fails on every count.”
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Real Broken Windows: In discussing the failure of economists to speak out against the cost of unreliable wind and solar Rupert Darwall writes:
“Thus, climate policy makes us poorer (the cost) than we would otherwise be for the sake of a better future (the benefit). Politicians pushing action on climate aren’t going to admit this, but one might expect better of economists. Instead, much of the economics profession has been complicit in the spinning of this fairy tale and has forsaken the tools of its science to disabuse politicians and the public of the net zero goldilocks story.”
“The IEA’s net zero roadmap foresees rapidly falling demand for oil, causing oil prices to drop to $35 a barrel by the end of the decade. This is fantasyland economics.”
TWTW adds that “Net Zero” and “Build Back Better” are true “broken windows” policies. Destroy first, then see if there is something better to replace it. See link under Funding Issues. For comments by an economist on Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) investing see Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science.
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$1.2 Trillion: The Wall Street Journal reports that the investment firm Goldman-Sachs estimates that the cost of the “Inflation Reduction Act” (IRA) will be some $1.2 trillion – about 25% of the US cost of World War II, adjusting for inflation. The editors write:
The Inflation Reduction Act may go down as one of the greatest confidence tricks on taxpayers in history. Democrats used accounting gimmicks to claim the partisan law would reduce the budget deficit. But now a Goldman Sachs report projects its myriad green subsidies will cost $1.2 trillion—more than three times what the law’s supporters claimed.
The Congressional Budget Office forecast that the IRA’s energy and climate provisions would cost $391 billion between 2022 and 2031, but this appears to be a huge under-estimate. One reason is companies are rushing to cash in on tax credits that aren’t capped. The Biden Administration is also loosely interpreting conditions for the credits.
By Goldman’s estimate, the IRA tax credits will cost tens to hundreds of billions more than CBO estimated over 10 years. The forecast misses include electric vehicles (difference: $379 billion), green energy manufacturing ($156 billion), renewable electricity production ($82 billion), energy efficiency ($42 billion), hydrogen ($36 billion), biofuels ($34 billion) and carbon capture ($31 billion).
Goldman says the difference in the EV credit estimates owes to its projection that more vehicles will meet the law’s ‘self-sufficiency’ mineral and battery material conditions for the partial $3,750 consumer credit and full $7,500 credit. But even Goldman’s estimate for the EV credit could be low if Treasury loosely interprets the credit conditions, which is what auto makers are lobbying for.
Auto makers are also racing to take advantage of a tax credit for locally manufactured battery cells and modules by setting up plants in the U.S. Similar to Goldman’s estimate, an analysis last month by Mercatus Center fellow Christine McDaniel projected that the tax credit for battery production could cost up to $196.5 billion.
Ford’s Michigan plant with Chinese battery maker CATL alone could cost $1.5 billion annually in credits. Goldman estimates the tax credit could shave the cost of battery production by 35% to 42%, though EVs would still cost 17% more than vehicles with internal combustion engines. While tax credits will improve auto maker EV margins, it’s not clear whether they will make EVs profitable.
Goldman predicts the IRA will ‘drive’ $3 trillion in climate investments—that is, reallocate $3 trillion in capital across the economy. Oil and gas companies will spend less on increasing production and more on developing carbon capture technologies, hydrogen and biofuels that are profitable only with the IRA’s rich tax credits. Expect energy prices to rise.
Goldman says green subsidies will benefit companies across the economy—from aluminum manufacturers to agriculture producers. This will make it politically more difficult for Republicans to roll back the subsidies if they gain control of the White House and Congress. Subsidies will also be ‘deployed meaningfully’ in states like Texas with large GOP Congressional caucuses, Goldman notes.
The editorial concludes with comments about politics. See Article # 1.
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Number of the Week: 145 Times. The EPA desires to expand power over the use of fossil fuels in providing reliable, affordable electricity. In West Virginia v. EPA, The US Supreme Court shot down its efforts to do so under the guise of climate change. It is now attempting to use particulate matter emitted by the burning of fossil fuels. In preparing comments, TWTW made a few calculations.
According to the World Health Organization about 7 million people die each year from ambient and internal air pollution, most from particulate matter. It is very difficult to get a straight answer on the number of deaths from EPA data. The latest, in January 2023, was that its new regulations will avert 4200 to 11,000 premature deaths but the page is no longer being updated. It emphasized mercury as well as PM2.5 from fossil fuel-fired power plants. In short, we have regulations before evidence.
If claims of human susceptibility to PM2.5 were true, we should be seeing a massive increase in deaths in cities in China. According to Our World in Data, China’s CO2 emissions were 79 million tons in 1950 and 11.5 billion tones in 2021. This is an increase of about 145 times the 1950 value. In 1950 life expectancy in China was 43.7 years, in 2021 78.2 years. This is an increase of about 79% of the 1950 value. [Note there was a sharp decline in life expectancy during the late 1950s and early 1960s. Not suggested, but this is probably from the Cultural Revolution]
If EPA assertions are correct, we should be seeing a dramatic drop in life expectancy in China, instead it is one of the fastest aging populations in the world. See link under EPA and other Regulators on the March, https://www.epa.gov/mats/healthier-americans and https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/china
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Challenging the National Science Teaching Association’s Position Statement on Climate Change
By Staff, CO2 Coalition, March 23, 2023 [H/t WUWT]
Climate change isn’t ‘particularly dangerous’: Richard Lindzen
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 21, 2023
Video with Andres Bolt
“Some sanity from Richard Lindzen”
New IPCC report: “From about of 1960 to present man is responsible “ Do nothing!
Making ourselves less resilient makes no sense at all.
Wind fantasy land: to cover 8 days of half-speed wind, UK needs 1,000 times the “biggest battery” on Earth
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 24, 2023
Link to paper: The Inadequacy of Wind Power
By Wade Allison, The Global Warming Policy Foundation, 2023
The Sleight of Hand in the Disingenuous 4th National Climate Assessment
By Stan Liebowitz, WUWT, Mar 19, 2023
Emissions and CO2 Concentration: An Evidence Based Approach
By Joachim Dengler and John Reid, Climate Etc. Mar 24, 2023
The Science of Dryness and California’s Droughts
By Jim Steele, Perhaps All Natural, Mar 19, 2023
Text: https://perhapsallnatural.blogspot.com/2023/03/the-science-of-dryness-and-californias.html
Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yknjuizJP6Y
A simple reason why net zero is impossible.
By David Wojick, CFACT, Mar 17, 2023
Link to report: “Constraining Renewables is a National Need”
By David Wojick, CFACT, Mar 17, 2023
Link to report: The Cost of Net Zero Electrification of the U.S.A
By: Ken Gregory, P.Eng, Friends of Science, Aug 23, 2022
Book Review: A Tale of Two Climates
Book Review by Kip Hansen, WUWT, Mar 21, 2023
“A Tale of Two Climates: One Real, One Imaginary”
Defending the Orthodoxy
Sixth Assessment Report: Synthesis Report
By Staff, IPCC, Mar 20, 2023
Fact Sheet: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2022/04/AR6_Factsheet_April_2022.pdf
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Applying Economics – Not Gut Feel – To ESG
By Alex Edmans, London Business School, Mar 17, 2023
“However, academic research on ESG is still relatively nascent, which often leads us to apply gut feel on the grounds that ESG is so urgent that we cannot wait for peer-reviewed research. This paper highlights how the insights of mainstream economics can be applied to ESG, once we realize that ESG is no different to other investments that create long-term financial and social value.”
[SEPP Comment: Avoids the critical question is: Is the climate threat real or imaginary?]
This time we mean it
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 22, 2023
“Still, since one of the 10 Commandments was not to lie, we cannot help thinking that continuing to present as science a target that is quite openly not science is also liable to get St. Peter drumming his fingers irritably. And if there wasn’t a Commandment ‘Thou shalt not babble nastily’ it is presumably because it was so obvious it didn’t need saying.”
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Mish: Don’t Worry, It Will Only Cost $131 Trillion To Address Climate Change
By Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge, Mar 22, 2023
New Study: Atmospheric CO2 Residence Time Is Only 5 Years – Too Short To ‘Affect The Climate’
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Mar 23, 2023
Link to paper: Residence Time vs. Adjustment Time of Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere
By Peter Stallinga, Entropy, Feb 20, 2023
IPCC launches 666th final final warning of climate hell: AR6 is a “Survival guide to humanity”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 21, 2023
IPCC Issues their Annual Final Climate Warning
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Mar 20, 2023
“Last Chance Travel” (climate alarmism in a suitcase)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Mar 24, 2023
“Maybe ‘fear porn’ is how to describe those who peddle fear and doom and want to recreate society along the lines that they think is ‘sustainable,’ what F. A. Hayek would call ‘the fatal conceit.’”
[SEPP Comment: Still waiting for the doom predicted by the Club of Rome?]
Ritual Sacrifice
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Mar 24, 2023
Video: ‘Making ritual sacrifices to climate change gods.”
For peat’s sake
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 22, 2023
“’Canada has one-quarter of the world’s peatlands. Together, they store more carbon than the Amazon rainforest and amount to the largest land carbon stock in the world.’”
[SEPP Comment: How much additional carbon would be stored if peatlands are covered by glaciers?]
Problems in the Orthodoxy
World Energy Data Confirms Fossil Fuels Will Dominate Future Global Energy Use
By Larry Hamlin, WUWT, Mar 22, 2023
“The OECD nations (which accounted for only 38.63% of total global energy use in 2021) led by the U.S. and EU experienced energy use declines between the period 2005 and 2021with these nations shrinking energy use by -4.3% during this period (as shown in Table 3).
“The globally dominant energy use by non-OECD nations (which accounted for 61.37% of total global energy use in 2021) increased their energy use by +66.7% during this same time period.”
Seeking a Common Ground
Koonin and Dessler: Climate Science Debate: Campus Liberty Tour 2022 (Oklahoma State University)
Video by Steamboat Institute, Via WUWT, Mar 23, 2023
“Debating the resolution: ‘Climate science compels us to make large and rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.’”
Senate Budget Committee Hearing Today
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Mar 22, 2023
Link to written testimony: https://judithcurry.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Curry-Testimony-Senate-Budget-2023-.pdf
Models v. Observations
Atmospheric water vapor (TPW) and climate change
By Andy May, WUWT, Mar 21, 2023
Can we finally toss the hot models?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 22, 2023
“In other words, chill out, we will adapt and cope with the small warming predicted by the best models. The real threat isn’t climate change, it’s climate policy.”
#CoolClimateData: CHRS Rainsphere
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 22, 2023
“Look carefully. Notice something unusual? The changes projected in the future due to global warming don’t look much like what’s been observed over the past 40 years. Canada, the Antarctic region, the US and Europe got less rain since 1983 but the IPCC expects rain to go up.”
Measurement Issues — Surface
Oceans Stay Cool February 2023
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Mar 22, 2023
The 1.5 C Temperature Fiction, Already Exceeded
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Mar 21, 2023
Changing Weather
Rainfall, Cyclone Data Show No Clear Upward Trend, Contradict IPCC Claims
The DIY way to demystify “greenhouse gas” claims
By Fred F. Mueller, Via No Tricks Zone, Mar 19, 2023
Weather Disasters Getting Deadlier, Say Experts, As Death Tolls Plummet!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 18, 2023
La Nina Is Dead. El Nino will replace it. What are the implications? All in my new podcast.
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Mar 19, 2023
Cool air and snow showers on Friday for the western lowlands. More crazy stuff in California.
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Mar 23, 2023
“Take a look at the forecast precipitation totals through Wednesday morning. 3-7 inches more precipitation over the Sierra Nevada and northern CA. Perhaps the U.S. Drought Monitor will FINALLY drop severe drought over northern California. Just silly.”
Record Breaking Storm Hits California. Snow Showers for Seattle. Accumulating Snow in Portland.
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Mar 21, 2023
March 24, 1929, Record Heat
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Mar 24, 2023
At least five dead, more than 80,000 without power amid latest California storms
By Jaared Gans, The Hill, Mar 22, 2023
European Dust Storm Of March 1901
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Mar 23, 2023
Changing Seas
Red Tide Hits Florida’s Gulf Coast: A Dreaded Neurochemistry Lesson From Hell
By Josh Bloom, ACSH, Mar 15, 2023
To the brink of extinction… and back
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 22, 2023
From CO2Science Archive: “Clearly, if all countries bordering on the world’s oceans adequately dealt with these problems within their own jurisdictions, earth’s corals have the capacity to do whatever else is needed to insure their continued existence.”
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
15 years after ESA listing as ‘threatened’ due to sea ice loss polar bears are abundant & thriving
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Mar 20, 2023
Recent Decades Of Cooling And [Antarctic] Sea Ice Expansion Has Led To Declining Elephant Seal Populations
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Mar 21, 2023
Link to latest paper: Widespread southern elephant seal occupation of the Victoria land coast implies a warmer-than-present Ross Sea in the mid-to-late Holocene
By Brenda L. Hall, et al. Quaternary Science Reviews, Mar 1, 2023
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Bees – Parasites, Pesticides, And Climate Change
By Chuck Dinerstein, ACSH, Mar 14, 2023
Link to paper: Honeybee colony loss linked to parasites, pesticides and extreme weather across the United States
By Luca Insolia, et al. Nature Scientific Reports, Dec 1, 2022
[SEPP Comment: The climate extremes are local weather as “bee ranches” move around the country?]
Dutch farmers on collision course with Brussels over compulsory farm buyouts
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 24, 2023
“I might have known the EU were behind this!”
A Requiem for Blueberries
By David Archibald, WUWT, Mar 22, 2023
Lowering Standards
Congressional Inquiry Into Potential Ethics Lapses, Green Activism in Federal Commission Marks One Year Anniversary
By Kevin Mooney, Real Clear Energy, March 20, 2023
“’Congress needs to exercise its oversight function here,’ Pyle [IER president] said. ‘FERC commissioners should be working for ratepayers, not narrow special interest groups and certainly not for themselves.’”
Nature discovers that political endorsements reduce their scientific credibility
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 22, 2023
[SEPP Comment; Uses a keyword search by The Guardian to assess “The truth of climate change”??? The subheading: “The International Journal of Fashions in Science” is appropriate with emphasis on Fashions.]
Drought risk to England regions after (slightly) dry February, scientists warn
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 18, 2023
“Even by BBC standards, this is grossly deceitful.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Media Regurgitates IPCC’s ‘Final Warning’ on Climate Change – Without Realizing We’ve Already Passed 1.5°C
By Anthony Watts, Climate Realism, Mar 24, 2023
Climate Homicide
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Mar 22, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
All the ways the most common bit of climate misinformation is wrong
We’ve looked at natural cycles and causes. None of them can produce this warming.
By Howard Lee, Ars Technica, Mar 15, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Ever consider the Younger Dryas?]
Column: The humanitarian horror that ‘electrify everything’ would unleash
By Terry Etam, BOE Report, Mar 14, 2023 [H/t WUWT]
“The loudest quackery tends to come from advocates in moderate climates, the zones where climate policy is developed, who think ideas like ‘electrify everything’ are noble targets. They have no clue how quickly -20 closes in on you, with no power, and no heat.
“The rest of us, who face challenging weather as a matter of routine, are expected to do our part by just dropping dead in extreme weather, I guess. Hell of a way to run a country.”
[SEPP Comment: Waiting outside at a Calgary rail station.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Claim: Climate Skeptics Have Long Intimidated Scientists from Full Disclosure
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Mar 22, 2023
[SEPP Comment: By demanding physical evidence?]
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 22, 2023
“Yes, they are coming for your gas stove. For your own good you see, since progressive starlet Congressperson Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez tweeted ‘Did you know that ongoing exposure to NO2 from gas stoves is linked to reduced cognitive performance?’”
UN calls for mass fossil fuel shutdowns to prevent ‘climate time bomb’
UN secretary-general calls for ‘ceasing all licensing or funding of new oil and gas’ and ‘stopping any expansion of existing oil and gas reserves’
By Thomas Gatenacci, Fox News, Mar 20, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Met Office & Their Opinion Poll
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 22, 2023
“Quite what does any of this have to do with the Met Office?”
[SEPP Comment: And the Met Office is a center for UN global climate modeling? It needs a public opinion pool on how well it did?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
‘We deify coal’: WV lawmakers doubled down on coal in legislative session with energy transition poised to accelerate
By Mike Tony, Charleston Gazette-Mail, Mar 18, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
Green Dictatorship? Netherlands Politicians Answering to the EU instead of Voters
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Mar 24, 2023
Expanding the Orthodoxy
OK now you’ve gone too far
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 22, 2023
“Whereas the current American Secretary of the Navy whimpers that ‘I chose climate as a focal point for my tenure as Secretary’ and the British admiralty fusses over rising sea temperatures causing their few remaining ships to overheat.”
The world is running out of time to avoid catastrophe, new UN report warns
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 21, 2023
“Most absurd of all was a Pentagon report on climate change in 2004, which claimed:”
“• Between 2010 and 2020, Europe would be hardest hit by climatic change, with an average annual temperature drop of 6°F (3°C). Climate in Britain would become colder and drier,
as weather patterns began to resemble Siberia.
• Deaths from war and famine would run into the millions, until the population had been reduced sufficiently to allow the Earth to cope.”
“The UN becomes ever more desperate and its message increasingly apocalyptic, as most of the world continues to ignore its message and carry on with business as usual.”
Questioning European Green
Germany Rebels Against EU Ban On Petrol Cars
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 24, 2023
“I suspect that the real reason is that by keeping combustion engine technology going, they will also be able to keep petrol/diesel going for at least a few more years too. After all, will Germany’s politicians be any keener to ban ICEs in 2035 than they are now? By then, they are likely to simply kick the can down the road again. That is if the whole absurdity of Net Zero has not already been consigned to the rubbish bin.”
[SEPP Comment: 14-minute video asking “How much energy makes it to wheels? Compares EVs using renewable energy with vehicles using synthetic fuels and hydrogen from renewable energy.].
No Wind Power In Summer? Solar Panels Won’t Save You!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 20, 2023
“This crazy situation highlights one more myth – that surplus wind power in summer can be used to produce hydrogen, for use in winter. As we can see, in a typical summer month there is not enough power on the grid to meet demand, never mind store.”
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Securing Energy vs. Decarbonizing Energy
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Mar 24, 2023
From: Energy Transition Advocates Get A Reality Check
By Irina Slav, Oil Price.com, Mar 22, 2023
Why Joe Biden’s ‘green new world’ is an expensive mess
By Liz Peek, The Hill, Mar 3, 2023
Funding Issues
Leading Economist: “Net Zero Means Higher Interest Rates”
Until recently, the economics profession has been strangely silent on the downsides of climate policy.
By Rupert Darwall, Real Clear Energy, March 22, 2023
The Dark Money Behind The Gas Bans
The big-money donors behind the gas bans are hiding their identities, and their funding, behind an extensive dark money network.
By Robert Bryce, His Blog, Mar 19, 2023
Legalized Climate Grifting
By Paul Driessen, WUWT, Mar 20, 2023
Litigation Issues
‘Cancer alley’ residents say they are victims of environmental racism in new lawsuit
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Mar 21, 2023
[SEPP Comment: So-called cancer hot spots are highly questionable.]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Green Fuels From Clean Energy Provide Opportunity to Further Strengthen Gulf’s Energy and Maritime Industries
By David Hardy, Real Clear Energy, March 22, 2023
“David Hardy is the Group Executive Vice President and CEO Americas at Ørsted, a leading global clean energy company.”
[SEPP Comment: Discussion of the subsidies given under the Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction (Promotion) Act, but no comment on the costs of retaining reliable power plants so needed when solar and wind fail.]
London Array Made Excess Profit Of £160 Million In 2021
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 20, 2023
“Based on these accounts for the London Array, the wind sector, both onshore and offshore, will have made excess profit of around £3.6 billion in 2021, on top of the ROC subsidies also amounting to £3.6 billion.
“And we pay for it all.”
EPA and other Regulators on the March
Reconsideration of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for Particulate Matter
Posted by the Environmental Protection Agency on Jan 27, 2023, Regulations.gov
Biden administration to require more efficient window air conditioners, air cleaners
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Mar 23, 2023
“The new standards, shared first with The Hill, would save consumers a total of about $1.5 billion per year on their electricity bills, the Energy Department said.”
“Together, they are expected to cost manufacturers a total of about $82.1 million to comply with.”
[SEPP Comment: Cost the manufacturer but not the consumer?]
Energy Issues – Non-US
Rural Homes Will Be Forced To Install Unaffordable Heat Pumps
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 24, 2023
Wall Street Journal Makes Fun Of German Energy Policy. “Hilarious Green Irony” As Coal Rescues
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Mar 21, 2023
Energy Issues — US
A Proposal For Exposing The True Costs Of Getting Electricity From Wind And Sun
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Mar 18, 2023
“Could anybody possibly be stupid enough to believe the line that wind and solar generators can provide reliable electricity to consumers that is cheaper than electricity generated by fossil fuels?”
“Note that these are not just some fringe crazies, but rather are prominent media and political voices — including the President of the United States — who you might think would know at least a little of what they are talking about.”
NY Climate Act Cap and Invest Plan Going Off the Rails
By Roger Caiazza, WUWT, Mar 20, 2023
Trying To Head Off New York’s Total Self-Destruction
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Mar 23, 2023
“The basic mind-set of all the [New York] elected officials is that if only we raise enough tax money and spend it on enough handouts to favored constituencies, we can shortly achieve nirvana and utopia.”
“In the eleven years from 2010 to 2020, the percent of New York’s electricity coming from “renewables” inched up from about 22% to about 28%. But most of that 6% increase came from that blue line, “hydro,” aka almost entirely the Niagara Falls power plant, going from about 18% to about 22% of state electricity production.”
“And then supposedly the percent of electricity from renewables takes off like the blade of a hockey stick in 2020 and gets to 70% by 2030. Unmentioned is that we don’t have another Niagara Falls. Therefore, this whole increase now has to come from wind and solar.”
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Opinion: LNG is a hat trick for Canada
By Mike Rose, chief executive officer of Tourmaline Oil Corp Canada’s largest gas producer., Calgary Herald, Mar 20, 2023
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Nu-Scale Cost Threat
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Mar 23, 2023
It’s Time for America to Unleash Next-Generation Nuclear Energy
By Byron Donalds & Christopher Barnard, Real Clear Energy, March 22, 2023
“To be frank, any emissions-related climate goals are moonshots without nuclear energy, and next-generation nuclear technology is something that the United States can and SHOULD lead on.”
The Willow Project Is a Band-Aid. Nuclear Energy Is the Cure.
By Benjamin Khoshbin,, Real Clear Energy, March 22, 2023
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Offshore Headwinds for Biden
By Allen Brooks, Master Resource, Mar 23, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Will big wind get rid of the 1920 Jones Act?]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Deforesting To Save The Planet? Europe’s Forests Shrinking As Wood Used For “Green” Energy
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Mar 23, 2023
““Nearly nine million tons of pellets per year are burned by the Drax power plant. That’s three times Germany’s pellet production and one and a half times the UK’s wood production. With this huge amount of wood, the power plant generates seven percent of the UK’s electricity needs and gets plenty of subsidies for it: 3.5 million euros per day.”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Scratched EV battery? Your insurer may have to junk the whole car
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 24, 2023
“’ For many electric vehicles, there is no way to repair or assess even slightly damaged battery packs after accidents, forcing insurance companies to write off cars with few miles – leading to higher premiums and undercutting gains from going electric.’”
Big-Gov Desperation: Now we need a $3,000 parking fine to keep sacred “EV” charging spots clear
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 19, 2023
“The cult confuses ‘want’ with ‘need’:
1 in 7 cars sold globally now is electric
By Clarisa Diaz, World Economic Forum, Mar 10, 2023
[SEPP What are the total subsidies?]
Lithium Prices Hit Hard As EV Sales Stumble
By ZeroHedge, Oil Price.com, Mar 21, 2023
Carbon Schemes
California Needs Carbon Capture to Meet Net-Zero Carbon Goals
By Tom Widroe, Real Clear Energy, March 23, 2023
“Tom Widroe is the executive director of the Santa Barbara County Taxpayers Association.”
[SEPP Comment: Solve a fantasy problem with another dream of unknown cost.]
Carbon Capture Permit Backlog Threatens Climate Progress
By Rich Powell, Real Clear Energy, March 21, 2023
“Yet, despite some of these applications dating back to 2020, not a single CO2 injection site – called a Class VI well – has received approval from the EPA, even since the passage of the IRA.”
California Dreaming
Newsom gets big win: California Senate approves first-of-its-kind ‘price gouging’ bill
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Mar 23, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Regulations that shut off production and refining do not increase prices?]
It never rains in climate California
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 22, 2023
Other Scientific News
Review of Acute Human-Toxicity Estimates for Selected Chemical-Warfare Agents.
By National Research Council (US), Committee on Toxicology.
National Academies Press, 1997
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Greta Thunberg, PhD Theology
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Mar 23, 2023
[SEPP Comment: At least the University of Helsinki got the field right!]
Help Save the Planet: Eat Lentils
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Mar 23, 2023
Moose ate my planet
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Mar 22, 2023
Scottish Couple Plan to Drive “From Pole to Pole” in an Electric Vehicle
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Mar 20, 2023
“They plan to bring a portable wind turbine to charge the vehicle when sunlight is unavailable.”
“Chris and Julie Ramsey will set off to travel 17,000 miles (27,000km) from the Magnetic North to South Pole this week.”
“As of 2021, the [North magnetic] pole is projected to have moved beyond the Canadian Arctic to 86.400°N 156.786°E.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_magnetic_pole
In 2015 it [South magnetic pole] lay at 64.28°S 136.59°E (est). That point lies outside the Antarctic Circle.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_magnetic_pole
[SEPP Comment: If they can drive a car from under the Arctic Ocean to under the Antarctic [Southern] Ocean using only solar and wind for power, will they be real polar explorers?]
ARTICLES
1. The Real Cost of the Inflation Reduction Act Subsidies: $1.2 Trillion
Goldman Sachs says the uncapped tax credits will cost three times what Democrats claimed.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, March 24, 2023
TWTW Summary: Largely reproduced in the This Week section above.
The real question is who is going to compel China, India, and the rest of Asia to comply?
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B I N G O !
They are classifying that tornado in Mississippi as an EF-4. I guessed that was what it was but you don’t get the official word until after they have a chance to assess the damage to determine the classification per the Enhanced Fujita Scale.
May 20, 2013 a tornado hit Moore, OK that was classified as an EF-5. That was the last time one hit. So it has been almost a decade since the last EF-5. That is the longest period between EF-5 tornadoes since records began in 1950. I would not be surprised if we see that streak end this year.
The damage path of the EF-4 in Mississippi was about a mile wide.
The Last U.S. EF5 Tornado Struck 6 Years Ago And That’s the Second-Longest Streak of Its Kind | The Weather Channel
Ken,
This is my actual concluding paragraph:
The quote you have above is from AR6. It is the IPCC conclusion, not mine, and the one the post was intended to refute.
“The advocates claim that simply because a hotspot cannot be found with statistical certainty, that is no reason for denying its existence.”
We must have faith!
Threat of flooding in Northern California.
Autumn in Australia.
The stationary upper low is located off the northern coast of California. Secondary lows form on its periphery and operate off the west coast of the US and into California.
Snow cover in the northern hemisphere as of March 29, 2023.
