News Brief by Kip Hansen — 13 March 2023
The New Scientist carries a story dated 11 March 2023 with this headline:
A massive power transformer shortage is wreaking havoc in the US — “A nationwide shortage of power grid transformers is causing delays across the US for everything from infrastructure for electric vehicles to new homes”
“Across the US, new houses sit unfinished – construction can’t be completed until they are connected to the electricity grid. Utility companies worry about how quickly they can restore power after damage caused by hurricanes and other natural disasters. And nationwide efforts to modernize ageing electrical grids face delays of months or even years.”
E&E EnergyWire covered this ongoing situation last October in a piece titled: “How a transformer shortage threatens the grid”
“… the United States is undergoing a shortage of a range of transformers — spanning smaller, pole-top units on city streets to Virginia Transformer’s massive units — for reasons that vary depending on the equipment. That means utilities could struggle to add enough new wind and solar generation to meet the country’s net-zero goals and to keep the lights on when storms damage their depleted transformer stockpiles.”
E&E references this year’s Department of Energy report, stating “The DOE report concludes that the supply of new transformers must multiply dramatically if the nation’s grid is to fill up with new wind and solar generation and EV charging. DOE and Commerce also warned that transformer supply is a national security issue — even without the added pressure of a clean energy transition.”
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Author’s Comment:
I mentioned this slow-moving disaster in How Much of the Grid Must Be Upgraded. I used this image:
There are grid transformers in all the red boxes which include areas that will need upgrading, just to allow for EV charging stations at homes and businesses.
In that essay, I said “I’m not sure we can even supply the components for the transformation.” Apparently, that is already true, at least for transformers.
Many others have written about grid related problems here at WUWT.
Thanks for reading.
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New construction is a capital expenditure. As such, government and many businesses require capital expenditure plans out to 15 years or longer in certain cases.
Much of Government and some businesses work with a 5 year capital plan.
Capital planning is supposed to account for all aspects of the capital expenditure, including all dependencies and downstream impacts.
Experienced planners start the order process for critical structure well in advance of the main capital expenditure.
Still, a planning issue. Except quite a few Utility companies have stopped serious planning since politicians caved to irrational alarmists.
One does expect that some people in the Utility companies continuously locate, procure and maintain adequate backup equipment inventory.
I’ve heard there is a lot of money for nationwide architecture and grid equipment.
The big question are there sufficient capital planners with true long term construction plans, or will government agencies and lackadaisical planners simply throw money at suppliers.
Consider the difficulties in repairing or replacing transformers in a post-Carrington world. The trucks carrying transformers, if transformers are available as inventory, can travel no farther than half a fuel tank of diesel, because there is no electricity to run the pumps at gas stations along the route. With no electricity to pump gasoline, the repairmen would quickly run out of gas to commute between home and work. The utility repair headquarters would need a substantial supply of diesel fuel to run generators to refuel truck fuel tanks and make electricity for onsite welding and lighting. It would be a nightmare! Are any major utilities making plans for a Carrington Event or EMP?
You seem to feel that utilities have done nothing over the last 75 years to beef up their grids to handle EMP.
If the grid can handle lightning strikes, it can handle an EMP or Carrington event.
Yes, EMP events are larger, however this just means that more circuit breakers will get involved.
Beyond that, the rise time of an EMP is much slower than the rise time for a lightning strike, which means the EMP is easier for existing equipment to handle.
I don’t consider myself to be an expert in hardening of power grids, and I didn’t speak directly to that issue. However, Encyclopedia Britannica unequivocally says,
Wikepedia describes the components of a nuclear EMP thusly:
It then goes on to say,
However,
Finally, it is remarked,
It is difficult for a non-expert to judge just how much effort has been put into hardening our national grid. However, with ‘Swifty’ in charge, and being most concerned with phasing out energy sources that are relatively uneffected by EMPs, I think it is prudent to be concerned about the potential impacts of an EMP, which you simplistically misrepresented.
ttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse
Nonsense on stilts.
First off, any device that is shielded from emitting EMF is also shielded from absorbing it. There are very strict standards regarding how much EMF electronic devices are allowed to emit.
As to power lines. Those things have circuit breakers and fuses every few miles along every line.
Power transformers are protected against voltage and current surges.
They have to be, otherwise the first electrical storm would bring the whole grid down.
I’m willing to bet if you look up Global Warming in the Encyclopedia Britannica, it will also tell you that it is a serious problem that can only be solved by switching to wind and solar.
It will also no doubt tell you about how cheap and reliable both wind and solar.
Before advocating that government spend billions, if not trillions of dollars fixing a problem, why not spend a few minutes actually learning something about the problem and solutions first.
Didn’t you learn anything from the global warming scam?
“Those things have circuit breakers and fuses every few miles along every line.”
Respectfully, this is the difference between a lightning strike and a Carrington event or an EMP strike.
The latter two would cause such widespread impacts that it would take weeks or months to recover. Look at what a hurricane causes versus what a thunderstorm causes.
If every distribution network circuit breaker/fuse blew in the state of Kansas and didn’t actually damage any infrastructure it would take a *long* time to bring everyone back online.
Lightning strikes take seconds or minutes to recover because no damage is done. The circuit breakers and surge protectors kick in and prevent damage.
The same thing would happen under Carrington or EMP event.
Indeed there would be much less damage because Carrington and EMP events are much slower than a lightning strike, giving the protection devices more time to react.
Mark,
Many residential service transformers are protected by fuses that do *not* automatically reset. I know that for a fact because I just had it happen a month ago. Pop a few hundred thousands of those and there won’t be enough lineman to get them reset in a short period of time.
If the line fuses don’t react quickly enough and the surge gets into the fuse panels in the residences you can expect damage there as well, not only to the fuse panel itself but to anything connected to it.
I know that as well. A lightning bolt hit the distribution line I am on about half a block from me. It didn’t trip any of the line fuses and the surge got into my house and literally blew the back out of one of my ham radios (plus some other electronics) and blackened about 10 square feet of drywall behind it. Had to call out the fire dept to use their IR camera to check and make sure nothing was on fire inside the wall.
In the fall of 2021 a lightning strike even took out the top insulator on a power pole down the line from me. It did pop the fuse at my transformer but the power company had to come out and replace the insulator and restring the line plus reset my fuse.
It’s entirely possible that a slow-rising surge could actually do more damage than a faster rising one if it damages things downstream from the fuses and circuit breakers, things such as residential or industrial equipment and wiring.
Years ago, I had an uncle living in Nebraska who came home to a thoroughly destroyed telephone, with plastic shrapnel embedded in walls. Apparently, a lightning bolt struck a utility pole a quarter mile away and came in on the telephone line instead of the power lines.
I have had electronic equipment apparently destroyed by lightning-induced EMP by strikes to trees in back and close to the house.
It appears that you didn’t bother to read what Wiki’ had to say. An EMP is a multifactor event that isn’t composed of just a slow component.
Actually, in light of your comments, I suspect that I have spent more time on it than you have.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/electromagnetic-pulse-experts-warns-emp-biggest-danger-america
ATheoK ==> It’s apparently, according the DOE, not a money problem, but a manufacturing capability issue.
All wind and solar needs to be put on hold until the grid is upgraded.
more fear mongering
oh no we are running out of copper, lithium, and NOW transformers
its an appocalypse!!!!
you guys have no vision
I have a vision –
SMRs in every zip code.
Surface Mount Resistors?
Mosher ==> The transformer shortage and its threat to National Security comes to us from the US Department of Energy. Are you accusing them of fear mongering?
Read their report and see if they are exaggerating or if they are describing a real problem.
How typical of our most famous global warming troll.
Not a single attempt to actually refute the arguments given. Just abuse for anyone who dares to dispute his paymasters.
Do you think the shell just appears when someone waves a wand? Somebody must cast it and machine it. Do castings and machine tools also appear with that same wand.
How about a winding machine? Do additional machines appear with a wave of the wand? Who makes them? What is their lead time. Knowing there will be a surplus after tooling up, you can bet they won’t be cheap.
You seem to have no idea what it takes to CREATE real physical plant. You can’t just flip a switch and speed up production like pressing the accelerator of a vehicle. Manufacturing just doesn’t work that way.
Trump issued an executive order to ban imports from China shortly before this shortage became a problem:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-electricity-trump/trump-signs-order-to-protect-the-u-s-electricity-system-energy-department-idUSKBN22D5OD
There may also be domestic production problems, and demand increases. But this crisis is primarily a political one. Biden has upheld the trade war with China.
Then that is the one thing he may be doing right.