Essay by Eric Worrall
“… SVB recognizes the significant societal, ecological and economic threats of climate change. … We enable entrepreneurs with inventions and new businesses that reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and take seriously the responsibility to reduce our own. …” – SVB ESG Report 2022 Section 8
Pinkerton: Green, Woke, and Now Broke — How SVB Became the 2nd Biggest Bank Failure in U.S. History
Go Woke, Go Bust
Oh so woke, oh so green, oh so diverse Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) just went bust.
One can go to its website—still up for who knows how much longer—and see that it claimsassets of $212 billion. But as they say, the bigger they are, the harder they fall; and so SVB makes for the second largest bank failure in U.S. history.
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Speaking of ‘splaining, SVB officials will need to answer a lot of questions, including, What role did wokeness play in SVB’s failure?
Another term for wokeness, of course, is ESG, which stands for environmental, social, and governance. ESG is a pertinent question, as there’s a considerable body of economic literature showing that woke investments aren’t good investments. For instance, one study by professors at the London School of Economics and Columbia University finds that:
ESG funds appear to underperform financially relative to other funds within the same asset manager and year, and to charge higher fees. Our findings suggest that socially responsible funds do not appear to follow through on proclamations of concerns for stakeholders.
Read more: https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2023/03/11/pinkerton-green-woke-and-now-broke-how-svb-became-the-2nd-biggest-bank-failure-in-u-s-history/
Of course, it wasn’t just the woke policies of SVB which might have contributed to the disaster. One of the biggest sources of damage to Silicon Valley Bank was the bank’s mistaken belief that fixed rate securities were a safe harbour for depositor’s money.
From Forbes;
How Jerome Powell Killed Silicon Valley Bank
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With a hat tip to this fine Mint.com explainer, the oversimplified sequence of events is:
Read more: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesearly/2023/03/10/how-jerome-powell-killed-silicon-valley-bank/?sh=16a85a065603
- Silicon Valley Bank’s deposits grew from $61 billion at the end of 2019 to $181 billion at the end of 2021, as its startup customers raised ample VC money.
- This was too much of a good thing; Silicon Valley Bank couldn’t lend these deposits out quickly enough, so it began looking for something else to do with this money.
- Unfortunately, a large part of that “something else” happened to be very long-dated (i.e., maturities in excess of 10 years) mortgage-backed securities (MBSes). Silicon Valley Bank put 56% of its assets into fixed-rate securities, which is far higher than most banks.
- Whether it was fully or semi-deliberate, Silicon Valley Bank was betting heavily on interest rates not rising.
- As interest rates rose – one-year Treasuries, for instance, went from yielding around 0.05% (on May 31, 2021) to more than 5% these days – the values of those MBSes cratered.
- Moody’s downgraded Silicon Valley Bank.
- People worried about Silicon Valley Bank. Peter Thiel and other VCs advised portfolio companies to withdraw their money. Account holders had already been withdrawing deposits in 2022 as funding slowed, so convincing them to withdraw more wasn’t hard.
- To provide this money, Silicon Valley Bank had to sell already-depressed assets at fire-sale prices.
- (Silicon Valley Bank also told people “we’re OK” when they were very much not OK, which likely worsened the panic.)
- Silicon Valley Bank, with $209 billion in assets, became the second-biggest US bank failure ever. FDIC insurance covers $250,000 in deposits, but as Silicon Valley Bank is a business bank, less than 3% of its deposits are covered.
- Incidentally, with $620 billion in unrealized losses at other US banks, people are worried about a similar fate at other small, undiversified banks, and bank stocks are tanking overall.
Forbes is wrong to blame Jerome Powell. Rising interest rates are a symptom of economic crisis, not the cause.
One of the Federal Reserve’s main responsiblities is to ensure price stability, to contain inflation to around 2%. If inflation is allowed to soar unchecked, if interest rates are not increased to combat rising inflation, the result could be a deep recession, or even a second Great Depression. High inflation rates scramble market signals. Entrepreneurs pile their money into asset bubble sectors – houses, race horses, fine art, tulips, whatever happens to be fashionable, instead of focusing on real businesses and job creation.
So what caused the instabilities which forced the Fed to raise interest rates?
I would argue the Biden administration created the economic crisis which forced the Fed to raise interest rates, with their wild Net Zero spending spree, and their hostility towards fossil fuel.
Gasoline and energy inflation is a major component of the consumer inflation which the Fed is dedicated to managing. As WUWT has repeatedly documented, the Biden administration’s reckless spending on Net Zero, and hostility to domestic drilling, is largely responsible for the spike in energy prices and consumer inflation.
Could a different President have done better than Biden? The likely answer is yes. If President Trump’s America First energy policies had been continued, abundant domestic supply would have kept gasoline pump prices more under control, and cheap energy exports would have driven up the value of the US Dollar, which in turn would have counterbalanced the impact of global commodity price rises.
I’m not claiming there would have been zero inflationary pressure or interest rate hikes, but there would have been no hesitancy over releasing Federal land for drilling, so America would have been in a better position to laugh off supply shocks. And the US Secretary of State wouldn’t have had to go crawling to a wanted accused felon, apparently to secure US rights to pump Venezuelan oil.
The only remaining question, will the Republican Congress cave in to demands for a bank bailout? In my opinion there will be huge pressure on Congress this week to mount a bailout, to use YOUR money to rescue the rich liberal clients of Silicon Valley Bank, you know, the radical left wing silicon valley giants who helped Federal Government agencies suppress and censor conservatives and climate skeptics.
I can’t tell any of you what to do, but I urge you all to write to your Congress representatives, to let them know exactly how you feel about your hard earned potentially being used to bail out the Silicon Valley Bank wokesters, before your representatives get all their time booked by smart lobbyists in expensive suits flying in from California.
h/t SMC – looks like the Biden administration doesn’t need approval from Congress to release money to Silicon Valley Bank depositors :- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-government-guarantees-all-silicon-valley-bank-deposits-money-available-monday-223546372.html
Sorry. the official story does not add up. I does not take an M.B.A. or a PhD in Finance to understand the interest rate risk in long dated bonds. Silly old me never bought anything longer than 2 years after the Panic of 2008.
BTW. the main victims here seem to be a bunch of tech bros. Probably wokesters, the lot of them, who sip their lattes and call me a racist transphobe.
Couldn’t have happened to a nicer bunch of guys.
They weren’t all necessarily treasuries, my understanding is the bank was created to provide soft money for entrepreneurs, Silicon Valley success stories giving something back to the ecosystem which spawned them. My guess is some of those loans also went bad.
Only speculating, but it is also possible they were playing games with marking to market the true value of their fixed interest holdings. If they got caught by one of the early interest rate rises, to the extent they were already underwater, they might have decided to hang on for the ride in the hope interest rates would drop and put them back into the black, holding off on revaluing their holdings. But this game only “works” if they hang on to their loss making position as its value drops even further.
Another note. Mortgage bonds are much riskier to rate increases than straight treasuries. When rates go up, not only do the suffer from that, but the duration of the bond goes up because re-fi’s and sales go down. Further defaults of the underlying mortgages increase and the value of the underlying collateral goes down.
Still, there are hedges.
Yes, it’s called negative convexity.
The US Federal Government is trying to destroy crypto. This was, potentially, an attack on the ‘stablecoin’ USDC (US Dollar Coin). SVB had about $3.3 billion in deposits from Circle, the issuer of USDC. There are two additional institutions, Silvergate and Signature, that were also part of the attack. Silvergate folded, Signature is still, apparently, solvent, barely.
There are multiple other large regional banks, Fifth/Third among others, that have similar, or worse, issues with US Treasury’s that SVB had. It’ll be interesting to see what happens when the banks open on Monday.
Update, Signature has been shut down.
Signature bank has been shuttered per the Boston Globe.
“The real story will take a while to come out.”
That is usually very wise advice.
Moral of the story: Should your bank go Woke / ESG just get out of it.
Mr. Worrall, I consider you the best climate and energy reporter I read, but you missed the boat with this economic analysis. In fact, you fell off the gangplank into the water.
“I would argue the Biden administration created the economic crisis which forced the Fed to raise interest rates, with their wild Net Zero spending spree, and their hostility towards fossil fuel.”
You can argue until the cows come home but the argument is wrong. Biden had nothing to do with why the Fed is raising interest rates (explained below). The Net Zero spending spree does not yet exist. It is a Fig Newton of your imagination.
“The President’s 2022 Budget invests a total of $44.9 billion in discretionary budget authority to tackle the climate crisis, $16.7 billion more than FY 2021 or an increase of nearly 60 percent.
While +60% was a BIG increase, the $44.9 billion for ALL climate related items is just 0.7% of the $6.270 billion 2022 F.Y. spending. You CAN NOT claim that 0.7% of the 2022 spending is a wild Nut Zero spending spree. That is complete nonsense and ought to be retracted.
SOURCE OF $44.9 billion number (and I’m hoping this is honest reporting):
President Biden’s FY 2023 Budget Reduces Energy Costs, Combats the Climate Crisis, and Advances Environmental Justice | OMB | The White House
Inflation is caused by the Federal Reserve Bank’s excessive credit creation. That is usually done to indirectly help finance federal budget deficits.
Those federal deficits were HUGE in 2020 and 2021 fiscal years. Trump was President for the 2020 FY budget from October 1, 2019 through September 30, 2020. Trump was also president when the 2021 fiscal year budget was approved on December 27, 2020. Jumpin’ Joe Bidet had NOTHING to do with the 2020 or 2021 federal budgets, the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented credit deficits creation to indirectly help fund those budget deficits, and the resulting high inflation in 2021 and 2022.
Based on M2 money supply growth, the US inflation rate peaked last summer.
And the 2022 fiscal year budget under Biden had a much smaller deficit than in FY 2020 and 2021.
The federal budget deficit:
$1.4 trillion in 2022 FY, under Biden
$2.8 trillion in 2021 FY, under Trump
$3.1 trillion in 2020 FY, under Trump
Your hypotheticals about what Trump would have done are speculation.
It was TRUMP who approved the huge deficits in 2020 and 2021 fiscal years that led to the high inflation rates in 2021 and 2022.
“The only remaining question, will the Republican Congress cave in to demands for a bank bailout?”
Bailing out private companies who had deposits exceeding the FDIC insurance limit? That seems unlikely. Also, a moral hazard. But under President Bidet I can’t imagine the right decision will be made, which i believe would be to let the companies fend for themselves. With Bidet I imagine the right decision in my mind, and then just assume he will somehow do the opposite.
There are precedents for bank bailouts
Treasury’s bank bailout list – CNNMoney.com
“Based on M2 money supply growth, the US inflation rate peaked last summer.“.
But the US inflation rate hasn’t peaked yet:
Consumer Price Index (CPI):+0.5% in Jan 2023
So, clearly, this inflation is not driven by money supply (ie, it is not demand inflation), it is supply inflation. As I have been arguing, that is a very different beast, which requires increased supply not decreased demand.
M2 has been decreasing.
M2 Money Supply Shrinkage Accelerates | Seeking Alpha
The year over year consumer price inflation rate peaked at +9.1% in June 2022.
The current year over year inflation rate was +6.4% in January 2023
SOURCE OF DATA:
Monthly inflation rate U.S. 2023 | Statista
M2 money supply went negative three months in a row and is near a 35-year low. It is very unlikely that the year over year consumer price index will reach +9.1% this year.
Money Supply Growth Went Negative for the Third Month in a Row, and Is Near a 35-Year Low | Mises Wire
There is no such thing as demand inflation or supply inflation. There is only monetary inflation that causes price inflation.
Before you start debating me on economics, must warn you that I have a Finance MBA and wrote a for profit economics newsletter, ECONOMIC LOGIC, with hundreds of subscribers, for 43 years. I also am 4′ 8″ tall and weigh 495lbs.
These six charts (link below) explain the relationship between federal deficit spending, Federal Reserve Bank policy (asset purchases), M2 money supply and consumer price inflation:
Honest Climate Science and Energy Blog: OFF TOPIC: Seven Charts Connecting Fed Asset Purchases, Federal Deficit Spending, M2 Money Supply Growth and Consumer Price Inflation
The ALP wants to force the Australian superannuation industry to incorporate environmental goals into their operations. SVB is a very good reason why the ALP’s ideas should be fought tooth-and-nail. Super’s only function should be to maximise investor returns, not embark on what would most probably be loss-making vanity projects.
I don’t know why , because we certainly have had to deal with much worse in the banking sector over the past 30-40 years; but I’ve got a little bit of a bad feeling about this. Panic spreads so easily especially with just about every soul on the planet on the internet now. And the events of the last 3 years have reduced confidence in government and large (tech/financial etc) business to a new low. Even FDIC insurance scheme has its limits if a run should really get out of hand. I will feel better if all is well by the end of next week.
It appears the depositors at SVB will be made whole. The same for Signature.
U.S. government guarantees all Silicon Valley Bank deposits, money available Monday (yahoo.com)
That’s horrific – essential the Federal Government has just signed a blank cheque, fully underwritten all deposits, so people can chase crazy interest rates offered by flaky institutions no matter what the risk.
I think they are trying to contain the contagion they created. If they did nothing, a lot of major regional banks would see runs. I don’t think the Feds thought things through before they acted and now are trying to contain the damage they have caused before it snowballs.
In other words they are passing the buck and creating a much bigger problem for someone else to solve.
Given we just saw the second failure in a week, I wouldn’t rule out runs at all.
Here is the press release.
Federal Reserve Board – Joint Statement by Treasury, Federal Reserve, and FDIC
They are trying to stay ahead of the wave Eric.
Where is Gordon Brown when you need someone to ‘Save the World’ (sarc)
the Fed’s statement was not crystal clear to me but stock market futures are up +1% at 9pm Sunday, so investors are expecting a bailout.
In essence Yellen is spending the FDIC reserve fund to make whole parties who never paid into the FDIC reserve fund.
How long until the FDIC reserve fund, much like the Social Security and Medicare trust funds, run dry and have to be replenished from money from the taxpayers?
Who in their right mind will pay money to be part of FDIC, if everyone is going to be covered anyway?
Another comment went to moderation. I wonder why.
No idea sorry. We have to keep the filter cranked up pretty hard, must have tripped it somehow…
Huh, I would have thought, with having to register, it would have helped keep the less savory folks away. Or at least moderated their excesses.
It helps but we’ve had a few get through, so we still have to filter.
I wonder how much of that is on WPs side? Do we even know all their filter policies?
We created some bespoke filters, so we’re not relying 100% on wordpress.
Anyone that didn’t know from the very beginning that the US tax payer was going to pay for that failure is beyond help.
Here is an interesting Twitter thread.
Tweets with replies by Breaking Market News (@financialjuice) / Twitter
Some more interesting information (unverified) about SVB.
infra on Twitter: “@unusual_whales full-er list from ZH https://t.co/CM8Vwlm1SW” / Twitter
There’s nobody else to blame but idiot management. Rates were so low that they gambled the bank to earn an extra couple of tenths of a percent on deposits. Worse, they didn’t even have a risk management strategy to hedge against rising rates. Once rates started to rise short term securities could have been quickly rolled over, but the longer terms meant real losses that were going to show up on the balance sheet. So management delayed, delayed and then when they finally sold the loss was so large it caused a panic. They couldn’t even manage the situation properly because while they were raising capital to cover the loss they forced themselves into a regulatory quiet period.
So, while I’m sure their woke policies are correlated to their general incompetence, I don’t see any causal relationship. Hopefully none of these clowns will ever be given a senior position at another bank.
Well , I still don’t think we are completely out of woods yet. I got a sense from monitoring the internet and couple folks that work at local institutions was there was a genuine fear/ or potential run building across the sector. Even with FDIC and extra back stops in place; be it a morning run or a “slow” run it’s a problem. Ultimately the whole system is still based on trust and confidence in the system as a whole over time.
“I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies”
– Thomas Jefferson
Prophetic?
https://youtu.be/KIGbnwCL4iw
Yes indeed!
OT but I thought I just let you all know that this truck driver has done his last run behind the wheel of the big truck. I am currently on vacation at my daughters place in Daytona Beach but when I get back next week I clean out my truck. I’m retired! Financially fine even though I have hung up the keys a few months earlier than I had planned due to health issues in the family. I am just grateful that I am in the financial position to retire at a time when my efforts and attention need to be put elsewhere.
Congrats on your retirement!!
Thanks,
All the best to you rah – you can now go outside with your dog all day long!
Yellen was busy harping climate change catastropy while SVB was exploding. I guess the msm will cover for her.
Wokness comes in many forms. As I write this the US Navy is renaming two ships to “erase Confederate history”. Next will be Army posts. Benning and Bragg will be renamed.
What they are really doing is trying to erase is American history. They were all Americans, no matter which side they fought for.
Besides, Confederate General Braxton Bragg was one of the greatest assets the Union had. His failure at Chattanooga was epic and a turning point in the war for to the favor of the Union.
What’s next? Demolishing all the monuments to the Confederates at the NPS civil war battlefields?
They’ve been trying to erase Columbus for years. Any of the founding fathers who ever said or did anything that the modern wokista disaprove of, is being erases as well.
Crypto will break the system this time in yet another end run around that sleepy Treasury regulatory system while Yellen continues the climate change nonsense.
“We enable entrepreneurs with inventions and new businesses that reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions..”
The absence of logic in such statements is astounding to me.
If SVB did NOT have ESG restrictions would it not STILL fund most inventions and new businesses with that aim?
The difference is at the margin – did it reject a business with a good potential return in favor of a “green” enterprise with a less favorable return?
If so wasn’t it violating its responsibilities to its shareholders?
At present there is no evidence that ESG caused this collapse.
On the other hand there is plenty of evidence that it made the problem worse.
Say what you will, they did manage to reduce their carbon footprint!
This morning Biden tried to reassure Us that the banking system is safe and blaming it on Trump rolling back some regs or something. What a p.&@ur momisugly@ c….p. This problem goes way back actually to excessively low interest rates. But the Lefts economic wrecking ball is a systemic threat to us all at this point.
SVB officials will need to answer a lot of questions, including, What role did wokeness play in SVB’s failure?
They won’t be asked.
will the Republican Congress cave in to demands for a bank bailout?
Enough to pass it, I’m sure.
When 50 Democrats and 1 Republican pass something that the media likes, it’s a bi-partisan effort.
When 26 Republicans and 25 Democrats pass something the media doesn’t like, it’s a Republican initiative.
Bad government. That’s what caused the instabilities. As usual.
In 2020 and 2021 it was government policies in response to a pandemic that destroyed economies and personal wealth. Even though it was scientifically established within a few months of the outbreak that only the elderly were at serious risk, they forced the productive part of the population, the ones least susceptible to a serious infection, to stop working, while simultaneously not properly protecting the highest risk group: retirees and the elderly. Then they compounded their perverse response by printing trillions of dollars to “stimulate” the economy and “help” people affected by their stupid policies (including millions who still had jobs and were doing fine). As every armchair economist knows, conjuring money out of thin air and dramatically increasing the money supply dilutes the value of each dollar, causing it to decrease. In other words the price of everything went up because there were more dollars available to spend on the same amount of goods and services. Thus, steep inflation which adversely affected everyone and impacted the poorest the most.
Back in 2008 it was a combination of bad government policies that killed the economy; subsidizing riskier mortgage lending and keeping interest rates artificially low. Both were designed to encourage home ownership but instead resulted in widespread risky borrowing, speculation, and a tidal wave of mortgage defaults. Progressives thought home ownership would encourage more socially responsible behavior like taking pride in your neighborhood, accumulating assets (a home), saving, planning for the future, etc. It never occurred to them that they had the behavioral choices and the consequences reversed. People who make responsible choices like delaying gratification are the ones who work, save, plan for the future, buy homes, pay off mortgages and increase their assets and their social capital.
Politicians with big dreams of changing the world never learn the lesson that government interference in the economy is the greatest cause of instability. The best kind of government economic policy is the one that intrudes the least.
You’ve got to be way out in left field when your left of Maxine.
Waters: I Can’t Say Trump Rollbacks Caused SVB Collapse, It’s Too Early and They Were Invested in a Lot of Startups (breitbart.com)
I am set to inherit bank stock in a regional bank that was valued at nearly $90,000. My plan was to sell it back to the bank and buy physical gold as a hedge against inflation and as a back up incase things really go to hell.
Looks like that plan will be on hold for awhile because I don’t need to show a loss.