From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
By Paul Homewood
https://insideevs.com/news/629901/uk-plugin-car-sales-december2022/
EV sales are have been steadily rising in the last few years. Last year, BEV (Battery Only) registrations totalled 267,000, 16% of all cars, 77,000 up on 2021, (the graph also includes hybrids).
Nevertheless at that rate of increase, BEV sales will only be about 900,000 come 2030, around half of all sales.
But is this increase sustainable? If we look away from the overall numbers, and zoom in on which models are being sold, we get a much changed picture:
https://insideevs.com/news/629901/uk-plugin-car-sales-december2022/
The Teslas that account for a fifth of all BEV sales cost £44,990 and £42,990 respectively, based on RRP. The Niro and ID.3 are only marginally cheaper at £36795 and £39,254, and the Polestar , BMW and Audi are dearer than the Tesla.
Only two cars on the list come in at under £30,000 – the Leaf and Mini at £28,995 and £29,000, and these only account for 6% of EV sales. This Top 10 list accounts for nearly half of all BEV sales.
Quite simply, most of the cars on the list are totally unaffordable for the vast majority of drivers, as arguably are the Leaf and electric Mini. BEVs have not yet managed to break into the mass market.
A look at the Best Sellers list shows where the market lies:
https://insideevs.com/news/629901/uk-plugin-car-sales-december2022/
Ignoring the Tesla, the dearest car on the list is the Kuga, priced at £30,755. The Qashqai and Corsa retail at £26,405 and £18,065 respectively. There is absolutely no sign at the moment that owners of any of these cars are going to replace them with an EV. Part of the reason is, of course, the cost. But a major factor is also the impracticability of BEVs for most drivers,
The sort of driver who can afford 50 grand for an Audi Q4 will very likely have a second car in the garage for longer trips.
The simple reality is that there is only limited demand for the upmarket cars currently dominating the EV sector; and many of these sales are for company cars, bought mainly for tax reasons.
Until BEVs can break into the mass market sector, it is hard to see how they can ever be more than a niche product. (At least, that is, until proper cars are banned!)
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Massive marketing campaign for EV during Super bowl. People with money to burn will propel the EV bandwagon which, doesn’t bode well for the rest of us. I can’t afford twice the buck for the same bang as my 2002 Mercury Sable wagon LOL.
Many of us can’t even afford a used ICE vehicle at today’s prices.
story tip
New car prices push higher as used vehicle prices keep slipping (yahoo.com)
OK, very tongue in cheek, could this be the end of the ICE age, or another climate crisis?
Ford halts production of electric F-150 Lightning amid issues of battery problems: Report
Updated: February 14, 2023 – 12:56pm
https://justthenews.com/nation/ford-halts-production-electric-f-150-lightning-amid-issues-battery-problems-report
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The best thing about repeatedly hitting yourself in the head with a hammer is the wonderful feeling of relief you enjoy when you stop.
Yea, as my Dad used to tell me when I hurt myself. “Feels good when it stops hurting, doesn’t it?”
Can’t see that anyone has posted this so here goes:
Headline:“Tesla goes down across Europe leaving some drivers unable to charge cars
https://metro.co.uk/2023/02/14/tesla-goes-down-across-europe-leaving-some-drivers-unable-to-charge-cars-18282364/
edit to PS
I found that on MSN UK – they haven’t opened comments on this story
har
har
har
They know they are doing wrong but carry on regardless
Story tip
Net zero costs 1,300 Ford jobs in UK (yahoo.com)
Ford halts F-150 Lightning production due to possible battery issue (cnbc.com)
2300 jobs lost in Germany
We’re subsidies and incentives taken into account?
I own a BMW X5 and Caddy ATS-V. That’s 4 Turbo’s and almost 900 hp. They will have to pry my keys out of my cold damn hands, but a Tesla Plaid does sound interesting
I recently found myself waiting for others for half an hour by the main street of a busy town not far from Sydney, Australia. I passed the time by counting EVs in the passing traffic. My count had reached zero by the time the others turned up. It lifted my day.
Oops…
“For some electric vehicle owners, recharging now more costly than filling up“
And that’s without road tax embedded in the meter rate for electricity like it is for the pump price of gasoline.
I get similar results for the USA when I count the number of owners of 2 cars or more and assume such owners will be unlikely to buy more than one BEV, For single car owners, they buy BEVs at an insignificant rate. My numbers suggest a market share peak of less than 10%. I have also seen, even in California that Teslas dominate the market and lesser, less powerful BEVs have very low market share.
The US market is very diverse, with California are already at a 16% market share but the rest of the country is about a 3% market share or less.
The market is likely to slow soon and peak within several years.
A car is totalled when the repairs exceed the value of the car. An EV is therefore totalled when its battery needs replacing. That’s why EVs lose value much faster than ICEs.
In Australia, you’ll know EVs are ready to take off when someone comes up with a viable and attractive (the EV utes I’ve seen are ghastly) electric replacement for what we call the “tradie ute”. Rangers, BT50s, Hiluxes, etc dominate our sales of ALL vehicles.
The manufacturers are pressing governments to ban the sale of gas/diesel models simply because they know people will continue to resist purchasing overpriced EVs even with overly-generous subsidies. Let’s see the producers stand on their own legs and figure out how to cut costs instead of trying to fleece customers with state assistance. Gasoline/diesel vehicles took off by themselves a century ago by becoming more cost-competitive, not because alternate transportation means were prohibited.
I bought a BMW hybrid last year purely for tax reasons. A fully electric car is no good to me because I have a lot of high mileage days. But what good does it do the environment – even if you believe the CO2 nonsense – for me to cart around two engines and two energy storage systems? It just increases energy use. The government policy fails, even on its own terms.
Hmmm …A much larger market share than I would have thought.
No probs as the EU simply mandates EVs by 2035 and leaves it to local elected pollies to implement the decree- EU to ban fossil fuel cars, slash truck and bus emissions (msn.com)
Easy peasy!
I see an increased market, down the road, for buggies and horses.
e-tron sounds like étron means turd in French.
Some Oz money sums for the very popular ICE and ECE models –
In early 2019 the family had the choice of the Tesla M3 Standard Range plus at $66000 or the Toyota RAV4 Cruiser 2WD Hybrid at $42000. Fast forward to today and the 4 year lease/finance is up and with the average 15000kms/yr they both have 60000kms on the clock and Redbook tells the dealer what you get as trade-in value-
Redbook Cars | Australia’s No.1 Car Research Website – redbook.com.au
Tesla gets $40600 andToyota gets $43850 so $25400 depreciation for Tesla and $1850 in the pocket for the Toyota. Ah but what about the respective fuel costs. So 4.8L/100kms for the Toyota at current average $1.80/L ($1.65- $1.99 cycle in the metro) and that’s $5200 round while the Tesla at 15kWhrs/100k and say 30c/kWhr home (60c-79c public charger) would be $2700 for those 60,000 kms. Even if it’s free off your rooftop solar the Tesla has a real cost problem particularly now car finance rates are 8-9% or even the family’s home mortgage jumping over 5%.
Mind you that RAV4 is listed at $54225 new now while the Tesla is $63900 so you can see why the Green slushfunders are into middle class welfare in order to change the average temperature of the planet to what only they know it should be.
UK people should accept reality on this, and think it through.
The starting assumption should be that ICE and hybrids really are going to be banned in 2030 and 2035 respectively.
Everyone is right in saying that this is not going to allow normal patterns of car use that we have today.
Where they go wrong is saying that means it won’t happen. It will. All four political parties, Labour, Conservatives, SNP and Liberals (and the Greens too) are committed to it.
So get used to a world in which you have cars with about 100 mile range and hours to refuel at higher prices than ICE cars today. Or you can get several hundred miles range by paying three times as much.
And get ready to adjust life, because its going to happen. A lot fewer cars, a lot colder houses. The politicians don’t care, and there is no-one to vote for with any chances who dissents.
There’s a lot of smart analyses on this site. This isn’t one of them.
The EV market is on the exponential part of the technology adoption curve. Where prices are high, it is because demand exceeds supply.
Most EVs have wait lists for months. Try to buy an F150 Lightning today and you might take delivery in 2024 or 2025. The dealer might let you pay extra to get on the list.
EV sales are mostly about performance, not climate. They’re quiet, quick, smooth, and require less maintenance. Lots of people like that. Charge them with coal or nuclear energy if that is what makes you happy.
Rather than EVs being on the exponential development curve the likes of Tesla and BYD have shown they’re very much a mature technology with economies of scale that’s now pushing on battery resourcing capability. They’ve also struck the refuelling time problem steepening curve and trying to address that at the margins-
Scientists Find the Holy Grail: the Reason Why Lithium-Metal Batteries Fail (msn.com)
EVs will always cost more than ICE cars-
BMW executive says electric cars will always cost more than conventional cars | news.com.au — Australia’s leading news site
and because they do manufacturers load them up with all the lux tech bells and whistles to appeal to the well off buyer. Well apart from main market China where they’re prepared to forgo increasing Western tech safety standards in order to control city pollution. In that respect all China is doing is riding on the external combustion engine (ECE) and shifting emissions to centralised coal fired power stations.
Don’t get me wrong. Western market lux EVs are great cars for the revheads and for well off city slicker families as second cars with off street parking and charging but that’s a limited market. Elon has milked that market brilliantly but it’s not the mainstream urban commuter market let alone towhorses and workhorses.
Anyone trying to make a cheap base level EV commuter with solid roof steel wheels and cloth seats non-metallic paint etc will go broke in Western markets because a Chinese/Asian ICE with trinkets will kill them. In any case there’s not enough lithium battery resources to go around particularly with grid firming competition for them. EV penetration will hit the market segment wall when chip supply problems etc ease and there’s plenty of all sorts of new cars in the showrooms again.
This story estimates a 40 percent job cut from Ford. It’s probably more like a 75 percent job cut when Tesla gets through reaming out the legacy companies based on giga press, vertical integration, and many other innovations in cost reduction. That’s after losing money on both ends of the product line up from light trucks to cars.
Ford just exposed the biggest lie of net zero (yahoo.com)
Wait until virtue signally Karens find out that their beloved BEV IS POWERED BY CHILD SLAVE LABOR.
SEE Dr Kara’s report on Cobalt from the Congo.
Kinda makes a good bumper sticker
“this EV is POWERED BY CHILD SLAVE LABOR”
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I repost a link to my comment thread:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/06/20/evs-fossil-fuel-economy-no-better-than-ice-vehicles/#comment-3540259
Summary:
I compared to energy dispensers:
The alternative is between “mono 230 V 32 A socket, for only 5001€ without taxes.” and “For €303.27 (excl. taxes)… 1 liter of diesel fuel per second”
The conclusion:
Compared to 6 400 000 J for the diesel pump: the 303 € pump procures 960 times more usable (mechanical) energy for a given refilling time than the 5001 € socket.
(That’s NOT 960% more. That’s times 96000%, or 95900% more.)
Alternative: