By Paul Homewood
I covered this story the other day, and inevitably it is making headlines across the media (as it was intended to):
The claim is not based on any actual data, but on weather attribution models.
But what does the actual data tell us?
Much of the world lacks long term, high quality data. But one country that does have it in abundance is the US, and it tells us a completely different story to the one presented in the latest report.
Heatwaves, for instance, used to be much worse than now, and not only during the dustbowl years of the 1930s. Climate fraudsters love to begin their trends from the 1960s, when the world was cooling. But as the graph below shows, there is nothing out of the ordinary about recent heatwaves:
Then we can turn to drought. The record exhibits large swings, but plainly droughts are not getting worse – on the contrary, the 1920s, 30s and 50s were much worse than now:
Floods? I’m afraid not. The data provided by the EPA is the inevitable mixed bag; after all nature does not do straight lines. Some places, such as the North East show a worsening trend, whilst others have been decreasing. Such regional changes may well be associated with oceanic cyclical changes, such as the AMO and PDO, which are known to affect US rainfall patterns. But if the weather attribution models are right, we would expect to see worsening flood trends everywhere.
There are no trends in the frequency of hurricanes or major ones:
And violent tornadoes are much less frequent now:
The US is of course only one country, albeit a large one. And maybe other parts of the world are experiencing more extreme weather. But if the weather attribution models are right, all of the world, including the US, should be seeing the same effects.
The fact that the US, and for that matter the UK, is not seeing such effects fundamentally undermines their credibility.